Parameters of the model

0 Probabilistic?

Name live probabilistic deterministic alpha beta description

Transition probabilities random

draw
tpA2A 0.721 0.721 1251 483 Transition probability from A to A
tpA2B 0.202 0.202 350 1384 Transition probability from A to B
tpA2C 0.067 0.067 116 1618 Transition probability from A to C
tpA2D 0.010 0.010 17 1717 Transition probability from A to D
tpB2B 0.581 0.581 731 527 Transition probability from B to B
tpB2C 0.407 0.407 512 746 Transition probability from B to C
tpB2D 0.012 0.012 15 1243 Transition probability from B to D
tpC2C 0.750 0.750 1312 437 Transition probability from C to C
tpC2D 0.250 0.250 437 1312 Transition probability from C to D

Costs
se
dmca £ 1,701 £ 1,701 £ 1,701 Direct medical costs associated with
dmcb £ 1,774 £ 1,774 £ 1,774 Direct medical costs associated with
dmcc £ 6,948 £ 6,948 £ 6,948 Direct medical costs associated with
ccca £ 1,055 £ 1,055 £ 1,055 Community care costs associated w
cccb £ 1,278 £ 1,278 £ 1,278 Community care costs associated w
cccc £ 2,059 £ 2,059 £ 2,059 Community care costs associated w

Drug costs

cAZT £ 2,278 £ 2,278 Zidovudine drug cost

cLam £ 2,086 £ 2,086 Lamivudine drug cost

Other parameters
ln mean ln se
RR 0.51 0.509 Treatment effect (RR)
cDR 0.06 Annual discount rate - costs (%)
oDR 0 Annual discount rate - benefits (%)
 probability from A to A
probability from A to B
probability from A to C
probability from A to D
probability from B to B
probability from B to C
probability from B to D
probability from C to C
probability from C to D

dical costs associated with state A

dical costs associated with state B
dical costs associated with state C
ty care costs associated with state A
ty care costs associated with state B
ty care costs associated with state C

t effect (RR)
scount rate - costs (%)
scount rate - benefits (%)
Markov model

MONOTHERAPY Life Years

Year A B C D no disc disc
0 1
1 0.721 0.202 0.067 0.010 1.000 1.00 1.00
2 0.520 0.263 0.181 0.036 1.000 0.98 0.98
3 0.376 0.258 0.277 0.089 1.000 0.94 0.94
4 0.271 0.226 0.338 0.165 1.000 0.87 0.87
5 0.195 0.186 0.364 0.255 1.000 0.79 0.79
6 0.141 0.147 0.361 0.350 1.000 0.70 0.70
7 0.102 0.114 0.341 0.444 1.000 0.60 0.60
8 0.073 0.087 0.309 0.531 1.000 0.51 0.51
9 0.053 0.065 0.272 0.610 1.000 0.43 0.43
10 0.038 0.049 0.234 0.679 1.000 0.36 0.36
11 0.028 0.036 0.198 0.739 1.000 0.29 0.29
12 0.020 0.026 0.165 0.789 1.000 0.24 0.24
13 0.014 0.019 0.136 0.830 1.000 0.19 0.19
14 0.010 0.014 0.111 0.865 1.000 0.15 0.15
15 0.007 0.010 0.090 0.893 1.000 0.12 0.12
16 0.005 0.008 0.072 0.915 1.000 0.10 0.10
17 0.004 0.005 0.057 0.933 1.000 0.08 0.08
18 0.003 0.004 0.045 0.948 1.000 0.06 0.06
19 0.002 0.003 0.036 0.959 1.000 0.05 0.05
20 0.0015 0.0021 0.0282 0.9682 1.000 0.04 0.04

sum 8.48 8.48

 Costs COMBINATION THERAPY Life
no disc disc A B C D no disc
1
£ 5,463 £ 5,153 0.858 0.103 0.034 0.005 1.000 1.00
£ 6,060 £ 5,393 0.737 0.169 0.080 0.014 1.000 0.99
£ 6,394 £ 5,368 0.531 0.247 0.178 0.044 1.000 0.97
£ 6,381 £ 5,055 0.383 0.251 0.270 0.096 1.000 0.93
£ 6,077 £ 4,541 0.277 0.223 0.330 0.170 1.000 0.87
£ 5,574 £ 3,929 0.200 0.185 0.357 0.258 1.000 0.79
£ 4,963 £ 3,301 0.144 0.148 0.357 0.351 1.000 0.70
£ 4,316 £ 2,708 0.104 0.115 0.337 0.444 1.000 0.60
£ 3,682 £ 2,179 0.075 0.088 0.307 0.530 1.000 0.51
£ 3,092 £ 1,727 0.054 0.066 0.271 0.609 1.000 0.43
£ 2,564 £ 1,350 0.039 0.049 0.234 0.678 1.000 0.36
£ 2,102 £ 1,045 0.028 0.037 0.198 0.737 1.000 0.29
£ 1,708 £ 801 0.020 0.027 0.165 0.787 1.000 0.24
£ 1,377 £ 609 0.015 0.020 0.136 0.829 1.000 0.19
£ 1,103 £ 460 0.011 0.014 0.111 0.864 1.000 0.15
£ 878 £ 346 0.008 0.011 0.090 0.892 1.000 0.12
£ 695 £ 258 0.005 0.008 0.072 0.915 1.000 0.10
£ 548 £ 192 0.004 0.006 0.058 0.933 1.000 0.08
£ 431 £ 142 0.003 0.004 0.046 0.947 1.000 0.06
£ 337 £ 105 0.002 0.003 0.036 0.959 1.000 0.05

£63,745 £44,663 9.42

Years Costs
disc no disc disc

1.00 £ 7,327 £ 6,912

0.99 £ 7,570 £ 6,737
0.97 £ 6,002 £ 5,040
0.93 £ 6,310 £ 4,998
0.87 £ 6,305 £ 4,712
0.79 £ 6,020 £ 4,244
0.70 £ 5,537 £ 3,682
0.60 £ 4,943 £ 3,101
0.51 £ 4,308 £ 2,550
0.43 £ 3,682 £ 2,056
0.36 £ 3,098 £ 1,632
0.29 £ 2,572 £ 1,278
0.24 £ 2,111 £ 990
0.19 £ 1,717 £ 760
0.15 £ 1,386 £ 578
0.12 £ 1,111 £ 437
0.10 £ 885 £ 329
0.08 £ 701 £ 246
0.06 £ 553 £ 183
0.05 £ 435 £ 136

9.42 £72,573 £50,600

Analysis

Mono Comb Difference Estimated

LYs Cost LYs Cost LYG incCost ICER
single draw 8.48 £44,663 9.42 £50,600 0.94 £5,936 £6,306