JOSE HERMIS P.

PATRICIO
Professor & Chair
Dept. of Environmental Science, College of
Forestry
CMU, Musuan, Bukidnon
The basics of climate
change science
• Observational records give a
collective picture of a warming world

The Earth’s mean temperature had

risen by 0.85 oC over the past 100
years or so (1880-2012) [IPCC AR5,
2013].
 What is global warming?

• Global warming refers to

the increase in the earth’s
mean temperature due to
the so-called enhanced
greenhouse effect.
What happens inside a greenhouse?
 Example of the
Greenhouse Effect
The Sun’s energy
passes through the
car’s windshield.

This energy (heat)

is trapped inside
the car and cannot
pass back through
the windshield,
causing the inside
of the car to warm
up.
How Global Warming Works

Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas)

Natural greenhouse effect is a giver of life!
Greenhouse Effect
Sequence of steps:

1. Solar radiation absorbed by earth’s surface.

2. Earth gives off infrared radiation.

3. Greenhouse gases absorb some of the Earth’s

infrared radiation.

4. Greenhouse gases (water and CO2) give off

infrared radiation in all directions.

5. Earth absorbs downward directed infrared radiation

Result: warmer surface temperature
The Earth’s energy balance
 Enhanced Greenhouse Effect is Bad for
Mother Earth!

GLOBAL WARMING CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE!

Radiation interacting with
molecules
Carbon Dioxide Absorbs and
Re-emits Infrared Radiation
Greenhouse gases
http://www.elmhurst.edu/~chm/vchembook/globalwarmA5.html
What makes a gas greenhouse gas?

Able to absorb infrared light

• Must have molecular vibration(s)
– This excludes monoatomic gases as greenhouse
gases. (That is why argon, the third most abundant
atmospheric constituents is transparent to infrared
irradiation)
• The molecular vibrations must be non-
symmetric, i.e. infrared active
– Homonuclear diatomic molecules only have
symmetric vibrations. That’s why N2, O2 are not
greenhouse gases.
What then is climate change?
Climate change refers to noticeable
changes in the global climate, attributed
directly/indirectly to human activities
 increase in the global temperatures
(commonly known as global warming)
 increase/decrease in rainfall
 Increase in severity/frequency of
tropical cyclones
 Examples of human activities that cause increases in
concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

Sources of carbon dioxide (64%

of total; 391 ppm in 2011)
 burning of fossil fuels Carbon dioxide
 industries
 transportation
 power generation
 land use changes
 cutting of trees and
deforestation
 conversion of
agricultural lands
Sources of methane (19% of total; 1803 ppb
in 2011)
 rice agriculture (flooded rice production)
 livestock production (ruminant animals)
 waste management systems (landfills)
Methane
 Nitrous oxides
 Sources of nitrous oxides
(6% of total; 324 ppb in
2011)
 chemical-based
fertilizers and
pesticides
 industrial processes

 Sources of CFCs
(10% of total)
 sealants, coolants
(refrigeration, air-
conditioning)
 insulation
Human activities produce greenhouse gases that
lead to global warming!
Global Warming Potential
Gas GWP
Carbon dioxide (CO2) 1
Methane (CH4)* 21
Nitrous oxide (N2O) 310
HFC-23 11,700
HFC-125 2,800
HFC-134a 1,300
HFC-143a 3,800
HFC-152a 140
HFC-227ea 2,900
HFC-236fa 6,300
HFC-4310mee 1,300
CF4 6,500
C2F 6 9,200
C4F10 7,000
C6F14 7,400
SF 23,900
 CO2 Emission (tons/person)
Au

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
st
ra
lia

Source: Lansigan, nd
U
Ca S
Ru Ne n
ss w ada
ia Ze
n
Fe alan
d d
Ne era
Un th tion
ite erla
d
Ki nds
ng
do
Eu
ro m
pe sra I
an el
U
ni
on
So a J
ut pan
h
A
Si fric
ng a
a
Ph po
CO2 Emission per Capita of Top 12 Countries

ilip re
pi
ne
s
Contributors to climate change
 What are the evidences
that the earth is warming ?
Is the Philippines
warming too?
• AR5: 0.85 0C over
1880-2012
•Sea level rise rate
-2.0 mm/yr (1971-
2010)
-3.2 mm/yr (1993-
2010)
- 0.19 m (1901-2010)
• Arctic sea ice has
shrunk by 3.5-4.1%
per decade from 1979-
2012

Source: IPCC, 2013

 The ten warmest years on
2016 record
1. 1998 • Sixteen
 Eight of of the 17
these are from
2. 2010
2005 warmest years in the
the last decade
3. 2005
2003 • 136-year record
All are from all 13
the last
have
yearsoccurred since
4. 2003
2002
2001, with the
5. 2002
2009 exception of 1998. The
6. 2009 2012
2004 year 2016 ranks as the
7. 2004
2006 warmest on
record. (Source: NASA/
8. 2006
2007 GISS).
9. 2007
2001
10.2001
10.1997
(Data taken from the Hadley Centre)
Climate Change: Observations and Projections.
 The Latest

0.99OC
The Latest
406.17 ppm

0.99OC
1979

2016
• Between 2004 and 2016, average Arctic sea
ice dropped at a rate of 287 Gt/yr (as shown
in blue hues above).
• Antarctica is decreasing at 125 Gt/yr
 Global annual
surface
temperature
has increased
steadily since
1861

The Earth’s mean temperature had risen

by 0.74 oC over the past 100 years
(1906-2005)

IPCC AR 4 (2007)
Why does the 0.85°C – increase in global
mean temperature from 1880-2012 raise a
serious concern?

• The temperature increase from 1880 to

2012 is unprecedented. It has never
happened during the last 1,000 years.
 Greenland Seasonal Ice Melt

1992 2002 2005

Source: © 2005 ACIA

 Portage Glacier
• Alaska

1914 2004

Photos: NOAA Photo Collection and Gary Braasch – WorldViewOfGlobalWarming.org

 Colorado River
• Arizona

June 2002 Dec 2003

Germany
Argentin
a
Rising Sea Levels

• If sea levels
rise by 9-88cm
during this
century, most
of the Maldives
islands and
their coral reefs
will be flooded.
How is global warming
measured?
 Ice Core Data

CO2 Measurements Before 1958 - Antarctica

 CO2 Atmospheric
Measurements

CO2 Measurements Since 1958 – Mauna Loa, Hawaii

IS THE PHILIPPINES WАRMING
TOO?

The Philippines has

warmed by 0.57 0C from
1951-2009 (PAGASA,
2007)
 Observed Mean Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines
Period: 1951-2009 (departures from the 1971- 2000 normal values)

1.5
Anomaly
Temperature Anomaly (°C)

1.0 5 year running mean

Linear (Anomaly)
0.5

0.0

-0.5 y = 0.0096x - 0.3083

-1.0

Year
-1.5
51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

Source: PAGASA, nd
 Projected Climate Change in RP:
Temperature
3.5
3.0
Temperature (°C)

2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 NCR

ARMM
R01

R02
R03
R04

R05
R06
R07
R08
R09
R10
R11
R12
CAR

CARAGA
2020
REGION
2050

Source: Draft Report of PAGASA 2009 NOT FOR CITATION

 Table a: Seasonal temperature increases (in °C) in 2020 and 2050 under medium-range
emission scenario in provinces in Region 10

OBSERVED BASELINE CHANGE in 2020 CHANGE in 2050

(1971-2000) (2006-2035) (2036-2065)
DJ MA SO DJ MA SO
DJF MAM JJA SON F M JJA N F M JJA N

Region 10
BUKIDNON 25.1 26.5 25.8 25.7 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.1
LANAO DEL
24.4 25.5 25.4 25.2 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.9
NORTE
MISAMIS
25.6 26.7 26.6 26.4 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.9
OCCIDENTAL
MISAMIS
25.4 26.8 26.9 26.5 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.0
ORIENTAL

Source: PAGASA as cited by Tibig, nd

 Projected Climate Change in RP: Rainfall
45
35
25
Percent(%)

15
5
-5
-15
-25
-35 NCR

ARMM
R01

R02
R03
R04

R05
R06
R07
R08
R09
R10
R11
R12
CAR

CARAGA
2020
2050 REGION

Source: Draft Report of PAGASA 2009 NOT FOR CITATION

 Table b: Seasonal rainfall change (in %) in 2020 and 2050 under medium-range emission
scenario in provinces in Region 10

OBSERVED BASELINE CHANGE in 2020 CHANGE in 2050

(1971-2000) (2006-2035) (2036-2065)
DJ MA SO DJ MA SO
DJF MAM JJA SON F M JJA N F M JJA N
Region 10
653. 559. - - - - - - -
BUKIDNON 329.7 335.6 2.9
8 5 10.3 4.4 0.3 5.1 13.0 9.7 5.8
LANAO DEL 662. 621. -
337.5 350.3 9.6 -0.6 6.9 2.5 -1.9 1.4 7.1
NORTE 5 1 2.2
MISAMIS 633. 728. - -
392.1 323.4 9.1 1.4 6.1 5.2 0.3 4.6
OCCIDENTAL 1 3 6.1 5.1
MISAMIS 615. 581. - - - - -
442.5 296.0 4.6 2.9 1.8
ORIENTAL 7 1 10.4 3.7 17.8 5.2 0.1

Source: PAGASA as cited by Tibig, nd

 Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines

Annual Number Tropical Cyclones and five-year running mean

(1948 - 2009)

31
Frequency of tropical Cyclones

y = -0.0108x + 19.759
26

21

16

11

1
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Year

Number of Tropical Cyclones 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Number of Tropical Cyclones) Linear (Number of Tropical Cyclones)

*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.
 TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES

300

250

200
51-80
Number

150 61-90
71-00
100

50

0
Luzon Visayas Mindanao
IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITIES

Why should
we be
concerned
about a
warmer
earth? Or a
warmer
Philippines?
 Impacts of climate change
 Projected increase in frequency
and severity of tropical cyclones;
 Projected severity and frequency of
droughts and floods (extreme
events);
 Projected
accelerated sea
level rise.
 Typhoon Intensity Grows as
Oceans Heat Up

Water Temperature
Wind Velocity (shear) due to increased water temp. disparity

Storm moisture content

Source: NOAA
CLASSIFICATION OF TROPICAL
CYCLONES IN THE PHILIPPINES
• TROPICAL DEPRESSION Maximum
winds near the center of between 45 and 63
KPH
• TROPICAL STORM Maximum
winds near the center of between 64
KPH and 117 KPH
• TYPHOON Maximum winds
118 KPH and above
(Super Typhoon- used when max. wind is greater
than 215 kph near the center)
Extreme Events in RP

Increasing Intensity
Typhoon Reming
Typhoon Frank and its impacts
Impacts of T. Ondoy
Vulnerable Provinces:
1. Cagayan
2. Albay
3. Ifugao
4. Sorsogon
5. Kalinga
6. Ilocos Sur
7. Ilocos Norte
8. Camarines Norte
9. Mountain Province
10.Camarines Sur
11.Northern Samar
12.Catanduanes
13.Apayao
14.Pampanga
15.La Union
16.Nueva Ecija
17. Pangasinan
18.Masbate
19.Tarlac
20.Western Samar
Impacts of Climate Change
on Farmers: Drought
 3,500
Sugarcane
3,000
2,500 Area harvested
Thousands

2,000 (ha)

1,500 Production (MT )

Pineapple
1,000
Corn Rice
500
Banana
0

Major agricultural crops of Bukidnon (PPDO, 2003).

Vulnerable Provinces:
1. Sulu
2. Basilan
3. Maguindanao
4. Lanao del Sur
5. Lanao del Norte
6. Davao del Sur
7. Misamis Occidental
8. Sarangani
9. Zamboanga del Sur
10.South Cotabato
11.Zamboanga del Norte
12.North Cotabato
13.Sultan Kudarat
14. Siquijor
15. Tawi-tawi
16.Negros Oriental
17.Camiguin
18.Davao del Norte
19.Misamis Oriental
20.Bukidnon
 Philippine Rice and Corn Production
16.00

14.00

12.00
Production (Million MT)

10.00

8.00

6.00

4.00

2.00

0.00
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Rice Production Corn Production

Thursday, October 19, 2017

Source: BAS, 2006; Lansigan, 2007
 Corn

Source: Lansigan and Salvacion, 2007

 Heavy precipitation events
may cause:
• Damage to crops
• Soil erosion
• Inability to cultivate land due to
waterlogging of soils
• Adverse effects on quality of surface and
groundwater
• Contamination of water supply
• Water scarcity may be relieved
THIS COULD MEAN:
Palawan
Zamboanga
Those who live in coastal communities;

Those who are wholly dependent on natural

resources for livelihood (agriculture,
fisheries, forest, uplands, etc.;

 Those who have poor access to resources

(financial, technology, government support
and services, etc.).
Those with weak governance structure
(poorly organized structure for providing
resources, less-income LGUs, etc.);

 Those who live in areas prone to natural

hazards (floods, landslides, dry/very wet,
etc.).
What has been done to address
climate change?
• The Philippines is signatory to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol
to the Convention
• Phil. Network on Climate Change (composed
of NGOs)
• Enactment of Climate Change Act of 2009
(RA 9729) & the creation of CCC
• Enactment of Philippine Risk Reduction and
Management Act of 2010 (R.A. 10121)
 MITIGATION AND
ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
Two basic responses to climate change…

• Mitigation- An anthropogenic intervention to

reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of
greenhouse gases.
• Adaptation- Adjustment in natural or human
systems in response to actual or expected
climatic stimuli or their effects, which
moderates harm or exploits beneficial
opportunities.
 Carbon Tons Carbon Our Goal

Produce electricity
efficiently
Use electricity
efficiently
Vehicle efficiency
of Metric

Solar and Wind

Power
Biofuels
Gigaton

Carbon capture
Billions

and storage
Reductions
2007 in CO2
Per Year
1. PRESERVE EXISTING FORESTS &
ENCOURAGE REFORESTATION!
2. DEVELOP ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
SOURCES!
Be Bulb Smart—Use CFLs
What’s the Compact
Incandescent difference? Fluorescent

500 lbs. of
coal

•1,430 lbs. CO2 pollution avoided

•$30 saved
Electric jeepney in Makati City
Solar panels in Negros
Wind farm in Ilocos Norte
3. SLOW POPULATION
GROWTH!
 3. SLOW POPULATION
GROWTH!
•Global human population has increased from 1.65
to 6 billion people in the 20th century, mostly since
the 1950’s.
What can responsible citizens do?

Look beyond your everyday affair…

 What can responsible citizens do?
AT WORK:
• Turn all equipment off when not in use
• If your computer, printers & copiers has
integrated power mgt capabilities, ensure the
system is configured to use them
• Avoid using a laser printer for draft quality
printouts. From an energy perspective, the order
of preference is ink-jet, dot matrix & laser.
• Use as little paper as possible. Printing,
photocopying & faxing all use energy.
Communicate electronically through email.
 What can responsible citizens do?
AT WORK:
• Print and copy on both sides of paper and
use recycled paper (including unbleached
paper) whenever possible.
• Encourage your employer to launch an
awareness program to motivate
employees to improve energy efficiency in
the workplace.
 What can responsible citizens do?
ON THE ROAD: (The transport sector is one
of the largest producers of GG emissions in
the country)
• Leave the car at home- walk or bike for
short trips. For longer trips, take the bus.
One busload of passengers takes 40
vehicles off the road during rush hour, save
70,000 liters of fuel and avoids over 175
tons of emissions per year.
• Avoid idling your vehicle- ten seconds of
idling uses more fuel than restarting your
engine.
 What can responsible citizens do?
ON THE ROAD:
• Keep to the speed limit. Driving at 100 kph
burns 10% more fuel than driving at 90 kph.
ON SCHOOLS AND CAMPUSES:
• Engage, if possible, in the following:
– Tree planting (encourage others, too)
– Alternative transport programs (carpooling, use
of school buses, etc.)
– Waste management programs
– Green purchasing practices & policies
– Join into environmental advocacy groups
 What can responsible citizens do?
AT HOME:
• Turn off lights/appliances when not needed.
• Check the Energy Efficiency Rating (EER) label
when buying new appliances. The higher, the
better.
• Use energy-efficient lighting products, like
compact fluorescent bulbs. They last 10x longer
and use 75% less energy than regular bulbs.
• Conserve water. Fix leaky faucets immediately. At
one drop per second, a single leaky washer
wastes the equivalent of 16 hot baths per month.
Source: www.climatechange.gc.ca
 Concluding Remarks
• Climate change is happening and it
threatens the rights and security of
everyone on earth.
• We should be able to come up with an
amicable understanding that everyone
survives.
• Everyone’s positive contribution, no matter
how small, is indeed heroic. After all, its
our planet that is at stake here.
“We cannot change others, but when we change
ourselves, we may end up changing the world. -
Melodie Beattle
“If you want to go
quickly, go alone. If
you want to go far,
go together.”

-African proverb
THANK YOU!