SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF BUSINESS

MANAGEMENT, BENGALURU

RESEARCH PROPOSAL:
CHINA’S ONE CHILD POLICY & SIMILAR IMPLICATIONS
IN INDIA

NAME PRN

ANUJ KHANNA 19020841169

ANWESHA JENA 19020841170

SUDARSHAN RAVICHANDRAN 19020841205

SYED AZHAAN ALI 19020841207

P a g e 1 | 11
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

PARTICULAR PG NO

Abstract 3

Introduction 3

Background 4

Relevance of the Study 4

Review of Literature 4-5

Research Gaps 5

Research Questions 5

Statement of Research Problems and Objectives 5

Research Methodology and Design 6

Limitations of Study 6

Hypothesis 7

Learnings 7-8

Conclusion (Implications for India) 8

References 9-10

P a g e 2 | 11
1.0) Abstract
 The One Child Policy in China was implemented in 1979, and lasted until 2016 when it was
changed into Two Child Policy.

 The goal of the policy was to reduce the population growth in order to maintain an
economic growth, natural resources, and stability in Chinese society.

 The restriction on family size; one birth per couple, has resulted in a significant drop in
China's population growth rate during the last three decades, but the policy has been often
widely criticized for its negative impact on the Chinese people.

 The policy violated their freedom of choice on family size through fines, forced sterilizations
and abortions, that resulted in an increasing imbalance of sex-ratio, and accelerating ageing
of the population.

 Regardless of its nature, the policy had a positive effect on gender equality and quite
surprisingly improving the lives of women in China.

 This essay examines the development of the policy and its negative effects, such as the
skewed sex-ratio and social problems caused by the sex-ratio imbalance, the problem of an
ageing population, and the often-overlooked policy's positive effects which improved
women's lives.

2.0) Introduction
 In this research paper we attempt to review the evidence on the policy’s impact on
population growth, as well as its largely unforeseen impacts on population aging, gender
inequality, behavior and values, and the economy.

 The policy, coupled with a strong cultural preference for sons and the availability of sex-
selective abortion, has led to men significantly outnumbering women. Many men now find it
difficult to find a wife.

 Women’s scarcity has provided some benefits to women, for example, in terms of greater
power within the household.

 The generation of only children produced by the policy has been shown to differ from
previous generations – for example, being less pro-social and more risk-averse.

 Recent reforms to the policy allow urban couples in which at least one is an only child to
now have two children. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications of this
recent change.

 As a result of the policy, China’s population is not only smaller than it would have been, but
also aging rapidly. The burden of looking after elderly parents and grandparents now often
falls on a single child.

P a g e 3 | 11
3.0) Background
 During the period of Mao Zedong's leadership in China, the birth rate fell from 37 per
thousand to 20 per thousand. Infant mortality declined from 227 per thousand births in
1949 to 53 per thousand in 1981, and life expectancy dramatically increased from
around 35 years in 1948 to 66 years in 1976.

 Until the 1960s, the government encouraged families to have as many children as
possible because of Mao's belief that population growth empowered the country,
preventing the emergence of family planning programs earlier in China's development.

 The population grew from around 540 million in 1949 to 940 million in 1976. Beginning

in 1970, citizens were required to marry at later ages and many were limited to have
only two children.

 Moreover, even if Song's work convinced them to proceed with universal one-child
restrictions in 1980, the policy was loosened to a "1.5"-child policy just five years later,
and it is that policy which has been misrepresented since as the "one-child policy." Thus,
it is misleading to suggest that Song Jian was either the inventor or architect of the
policy.

4.0) Relevance of Study

 The study is conducted to assess what are the pros and cons on the implementation of
China’s One Child policy.

 Researching on this topic gives us an insight of how extreme population control affects the
economy and impact socio-cultural factors such as Divorce Rates, Literacy and Fertility Rate.

 It helps us postulate whether a similar enforcement would benefit other countries like India.

 The China’s One Child Policy was implemented to reduce overpopulation in China and
decrease China’s carrying capacity.

P a g e 4 | 11
5.0) Review of Literature
 A review of complete and ongoing research has been conducted to identify the current
policy gaps & implications in the policy, its impact & analysis on various socioeconomic
issues, as well postulating a hypothesis predicting future effects on India's growth rate.

 This review of the literature highlighted the following themes:

1) Historical background of China’s one-child policy

2) The Abandonment of Chinese Female Girl Child as a consequence of the policy
3) The decline of Total Fertility Rates across women in China from 1980-2015
4) The availability of children for transnational adoption because of the policy

6.0) Research Gaps

 Research is extensively done on fertility rates and impact on economy and how it might have
affected human capital investment, but, research on other potential factors that might have
had an impact because of the policy is not so clear.

1) Positive impacts of the policy for women and gender equality

2) Divorce Rates
3) Rural-to-Urban Migration
4) Comparable effects on neighbouring economies like India
5) Impact in Labour Supply
6) Evolution of Family Dynamics and Shaping the generation

7.0) Research Questions

 What impact did the One-Child Policy have on Divorce Rates in China from 1980’s till its
abolition in 2015?

 What are the potential factors that led to the undertaking of the policy in the Chinese
economy?

 Explain the evolution of Family Dynamics & the resulting impact on shaping future
generations and labour supply?

 What were the comparable effects on neighbouring countries? Should a policy like this be
implemented in India?

 What is the perception of the Indian Youth on family sizes and their views on the One-Child
policy?
P a g e 5 | 11
8.0) Statement of Research Problem and Objectives
 Research Problem: The Evolution of China’s One Child Policy & its Impact on Family
Outcomes & Drawing Parallels to Indian Population Growth

 Research Objective:

1) Finding gaps & implications in the policy, its impact & analysis on various
socioeconomic issues
2) Postulating a hypothesis predicting future effects on India's growth rate

9.0) Research Methodology and Research Design

 Using secondary data sources, we conducted an exploratory research study that
examined and analysed data related to China’s one-child policy and implications it has
had on families among China’s population.

 The method of analysis used is quantile regression model, which allowed us to focus
their attention on a specific theme and criteria for analysis among a specific subset of
the Chinese population.

 The research focused on the following criteria for determining gaps & implications in the
policy: families with children, children’s gender, family’s socioeconomic status, and
family’s physical residence.

 The goal of this study was to highlight the impact of one child policy on divorce rates in
China, the potential factors that led to this undertaking, evolution of family dynamics &
the resulting impact on shaping future generations, comparable effects on neighbouring
countries like India and the perception of Indian youth on family sizes.

 It is clear that the One Child Policy had helped the potentially problematic population
growth in China.

 The One Child Policy had definitely brought about many problems, such as the
unbalanced sex-ratio, increase in crime connected to human trafficking, and there are
rightful concerns about the future prospect of the ageing population in which there are
not enough women for men to marry and have children with.

 All the different implementation practices were put in practice to ensure peace among
people.

P a g e 6 | 11
10.0) Limitations of the Study
 Some limitations with the current study were: sample size, the accessibility and
availability of published articles for the researchers to use for analysis, and the
extent of the findings from this study that can be incorporated by policy makers.

 The authors strongly believe that conducting an actual research project on this topic
will create a more profound understanding of international policies, especially
legislation that hinders family systems.

11.0) Hypotheses

 Null Hypothesis (Ho): There is no association among parents investing more financial
resources and time in educating single rather than on multiple children

Alternative Hypothesis (Ha): There is an association among parents investing more financial
resources and time in educating single and multiple children

 Null Hypothesis (Ho): There is no significance difference between policy dissatisfaction and
Rural to Urban Migration.

Alternative Hypothesis (Ha): The is a significant difference between the one child policy
implementation and GDP Growth Rate

 Null Hypothesis (Ho): There is no correlation between specified populations, or any observed
difference due to sampling or experimental error for the impact that implementation of
policy could cause on India’s growing census.

Alternative Hypothesis (Ha): There is high correlation between the specified populations, or
any observed difference, which impacts the implementation of the policy and can bring a
change to India’s growing census.

12.0) Learnings
 In November last year, Union Minister Sanjeev Balyan said that the government is in the
process of formulating a population control law. Before this, the government should
carefully weigh the pros and cons, and take a hard look at the statistics.

 The Total Fertility Rate of the India is already close to 2.3 and steadily decreasing. The
number of women of reproductive age is already low and is also declining faster relative
to that of men.

 The issue of population growth is intertwined with other socio-cultural and political
debates. Especially the issues of fast paced illegal immigration and vote bank politics.

P a g e 7 | 11
  It is true that a high population causes undue stress on the resources of a country.
However, the government needs to be realistic is assessing the different motivations
behind having more children, and policy’s effect on those motivations.

 If the reasons relate to religious or cultural values, a legal punishment will not stop it.
Instead, the parents may not report the correct number of their children. Similarly, a
uniform civil code disallowing more than one wife may simply drive the practice of
polygamy underground.

 Moreover, many such mothers and children may officially become eligible for state-
assistance under various schemes (as orphans or single mothers), increasing the
pressure on state-finances. In a way, while previously the husband was to himself pay
for multiple wives, now the polygamy would be state subsidized.

 Other reasons behind having more children - poverty, illiteracy, preference for more
male children etc. are issues that need to be addressed directly.

 A population law is likely to only effect those who are relatively well-off and capable of
providing resources for their children. On the other hand, those with religious-cultural
motivations will find out a way to skirt the law easily.

13.0) Conclusion (Implications for India)

 India and China are experiencing rapid economic growth. Both have huge, poor, rural
agrarian populations. Neither country provides an effective social security net for the
elderly. Both have realized that population control is essential to increasing per capita GDP.
In both societies there is a strong cultural preference for sons. Both are facing declining sex
ratios through use of sex selective abortions

 In both India and China, the gender preference seems to be exercised not only through sex-
selective abortions, but also through maltreatment and/or neglect of female infants and
toddlers.
 As Gail Omvedt quotes from Dreze and Sen, for India, most differences in the sex ratio come
after the age of one. This statistic should give pause to those who think that preventing sex-
selective abortion is all that is needed to correct the gender imbalance.
 China had 32 million more boys than girls under the age of 20 and for the next 20 years,
China will have increasingly more men than women of reproductive age. That skewed sex
ratio is because Chinese families prefer boys.

 Crime rates, bride trafficking, sexual violence, even female suicide rates are all rising and will
rise further as the lopsided generations reach their maturity.

 The declining number of young people in China is also a growing economic concern. Over
the last few years factories have reported youth-labour shortages and it’s likely to only get
P a g e 8 | 11
worse. Families might also abandon their second child in order to evade the punitive
monetary fine levied by the state

P a g e 9 | 11
 14.0) Key References
Title of the Paper Author/s Year Journal Link
The Evolution of China’s On-Child Junsen Zhang 2017 Journal of https://www.jstor.org/s
Policy and its Effects on Family Economic table/44133954?
Outcomes Perspectives seq=1#metadata_info_
tab_contents

Population Control Policies and T De Silva 2017 Journal of https://www.aeaweb.o

Fertility Convergence S Tenreyro Economic rg/articles?
Perspectives id=10.1257/jep.31.4.20
5

Fecundity, Fertility and the Formation M Klemp 2019 The Economic https://academic.oup.c
of Human capital J Weisdorf Journal om/ej/article/129/618/
925/5289462

The Factors influencing China’s Z Xu 2018 Applied Spatial https://link.springer.co

population distribution and spatial A Ouyang Analysis and m/article/10.1007/s120
heterogeneity: a prefectural- level Policy 61-017-9224-8
analysis using geographically
weighted regression

The Power of the Government : Y Chen 2018 GLO Discussion https://www.econstor.e

China’s Family Planning leading. Y Huang Paper u/bitstream/10419/177
Group and the Fertility Decline since 821/1/GLO-DP-
1970 0204.pdf

The Household- and Aggregate-Level J L Garc´ıa 2018 Journal of https://pdfs.semanticsc

Fertility Consequences of China’s Development holar.org/48d5/977d6b
One-Child Policy Semantics cba8099b764a03abafd
5afb7067e0e.pdf

Is new generation employees’ job Haibo Wang 2017 Asia Pacific https://www.tandfonlin
crafting beneficial or detrimental to Xiaohui Wang Business Review e.com/doi/abs/10.1080
organizations in China? Participative Jinrong Li /13602381.2018.14511
decision-making as a moderator 29

P a g e 10 | 11
The Chinese saving rate: Long-term A İmrohoroğlu 2018 Journal of https://www.sciencedir
care risks, family insurance and K Zhao Monetary ect.com/science/article
Economics /abs/pii/S03043932183
Demographics 01089

Beyond the Quantity- Quality Trade- X Wang 2018 Journal of https://www.sciencedir

off : Population control Policy and J Zang Developmental ect.com/science/article
Human Capital Investment Economics /abs/pii/S03043878183
04243

Missing Women, Gender imbalance Qingfeng Wang 2019 Munich Personal https://papers.ssrn.co
and Sex ratio at Birth : Why the One- RePEc Archive m/sol3/papers.cfm?
Child policy Matters abstract_id=3430994

Fertility and Labour Supply : Evidence Yuan Cao 2018 Applied https://www.tandfonlin
from the One-Child Policy in China Economics e.com/doi/abs/10.1080
/00036846.2018.15028
68

P a g e 11 | 11