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Hydrobiologia 342/343: 1–8, 1997.


L. Kufel, A. Prejs & J. I. Rybak (eds), Shallow Lakes ’95.
c 1997 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in Belgium.

A model of nutrient dynamics in shallow lakes in relation


to multiple stable states

Jan H. Janse
RIVM, Laboratory of Water and Drinking Water Research, P.O. Box 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands

Key words: model, phosphorus, eutrophication, hysteresis, lake, restoration

Abstract

There is increasing evidence that, within a range of nutrient loadings, shallow lakes may have two alternative stable
states. One is dominated by phytoplankton and the other one by submerged macrophytes as the main primary
producer. The question arises at what level of nutrient loading a transition may occur between the two states.
This question was addressed by means of the integrated lake model PCLake. The model describes the competition
between phytoplankton and macrophytes, within the framework of closed nutrient cycles in the lake system,
including the upper sediment. Top-down effects via the food web were regarded as well. The model was run for a
hypothetical shallow lake, representative for the situation in The Netherlands. Long-term simulations were carried
out for a realistic range of nutrient loadings and starting from different initial conditions. The results showed a
highly non-linear response, which also showed hysteresis: the loading level at which a transition occurs turned
out to be dependent on the initial conditions. The results were compared with empirically derived chlorophyll a
to phosphorus relations. Factors influencing the ‘critical nutrient level’ were the lake dimensions and the net
sedimentation rate. The model was also used to evaluate the role of food web management in lake restoration. The
results suggest that a long-term effect of additional management is possible only if combined with a decrease in
nutrient loading.

Introduction 1977; Sas, 1989). Secondly, an increase of the nutrient


utilization efficiency of the phytoplankton makes them
As a result of high nutrient loadings during the past produce the same biomass with less nutrient (Riegman,
decades, many shallow lakes have become highly 1985; Van Liere & Janse, 1992). Thirdly, the grazing
eutrophic. They are now characterized by dense algal pressure on the phytoplankton is low, both because
blooms of cyanobacteria, high turbidity, absence of of the poor edibility of cyanobacteria and the strong
vegetation and a fish community dominated by bream. predation by bream (Gulati et al., 1990a). Finally, the
Although these effects were caused by high nutri- large amount of detritus accumulated in the system
ent loadings, restoration of the former macrophyte- keeps the water turbid and impedes return of the veg-
dominated clear-water state often could not be achieved etation (Van Dijk & Van Donk, 1991). Clearly, both
by external load reduction alone: eutrophic lakes often direct effects of nutrients and indirect effects through
show resistance to recovery. Apparently, once the sys- the food web may contribute to the often observed
tem has switched from a clear to a turbid state, this resistance to recovery. Therefore, additional measures
switch cannot simply be reversed (e.g. Jeppesen et al., are sometimes considered apart from, or combined
1991; Gulati et al., 1990b; De Haan et al., 1993; Boers with, nutrient load reduction (Gulati et al., 1990a).
et al., in press). Several, often interacting, mecha- On the other hand, also the clear-water state of
nisms for this resistance have been proposed. Firstly, shallow lakes, dominated by submerged macrophytes,
a prolonged internal loading from nutrient-rich sedi- shows a certain resistance to external forcings, like a
ments may delay the response (Ryding & Forsberg, moderate increase in nutrient loading (Moss, 1990).

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Several stabilising mechanisms may play a role. Nutri- ule is kept as simple as possible and comprises zoo-
ent uptake by macrophytes may suppress algal growth plankton, macrozoobenthos, whitefish and predatory
due to nutrient limitation (Van Donk et al., 1993), they fish. All biota are modelled on the basis of functional
may provide favourable conditions for predatory fish groups. In this way, effects of the food-web structure on
and they may reduce wind-induced resuspension by the nutrient cycles are accounted for, and biomanipula-
stabilising the sediment. tion measures may be simulated. The user may choose
The question addressed in this paper is how the between different model configurations according to
probability of a transition from the clear-water state to his questions and the available data. In this study, only
the turbid state, or vice versa, is related to the external the phytoplankton has been split into three functional
nutrient loading. This topic is approached by means groups, viz. cyanobacteria, diatoms and other small
of a mathematical model, in order to facilitate a sys- edible algae, because of their different characteristics
tematic analysis. The model used in this study, called and because of management’s interests. It is assumed
PCLake, combines a description of the dominant bio- that the zooplankton has a lower food preference for
logical components with a description of the nutrient cyanobacteria and detritus than for the other groups.
cycle in shallow lake ecosystems. The model differs It is further assumed that the macrophytes may extract
both from many eutrophication models, which confine nutrients from both the water and the sediment pore
themselves mainly to the nutrient cycling, as well as water. Apart from mass fluxes (food relations etc.),
from more detailed biological models. It also differs some ‘empirical relations’ are included in the mod-
from so-called minimodels (e.g. Scheffer, 1990) in that el: the resuspension rate is positively affected by the
it is based on closed nutrient cycles, allowing a more amount of whitefish and negatively by the vegetation
quantified analysis. The aim of this study is to analyse density, while the vegetation is assumed to have a pos-
the system’s long-term response, in terms of phospho- itive influence on the growth of predatory fish.
rus, algal and macrophytes biomass, as a function of The overall nutrient cycles for N, P and Si are
the external nutrient loading and the initial conditions. described as completely closed (except for in- and out-
Some implications for lake management are discussed. flow and denitrification). This was done by modelling
all nutrient- to-dry-weight ratios dynamically (as indi-
cated by the doubled blocks in Figure 1). Mechanisms
Model structure were included to cope with the often observed increase
of the weight-specific nutrient contents of the organ-
The PCLake model calculates the water quality para- isms at higher trophic levels (e.g. Gulati et al., 1991)
meters chlorophyll a, transparency, phytoplankton and with variations in algal nutrient contents. It should
types and the density of submerged macrophytes. It be stressed that all organisms are considered as depen-
also calculates the distribution and fluxes of the nutri- dent, directly or indirectly, on the nutrients that are
ents N and P. Inputs to the model are: lake hydrology, available in the lake or the lake sediment.
nutrient loading, dimensions (mean depth and size) and The model has been implemented in the simula-
sediment characteristics. An extensive description of tion package ACSL, version 10. Parameter values were
the model may be found in Janse & Aldenberg (1996). derived from literature and from calibration on sever-
The model describes a completely mixed water al case studies (Janse et al., 1992, 1993; Van Dijk &
body and comprises both the water column and the Janse, 1993). A partial calibration study on a multi-
upper sediment layer (Figure 1). A default sediment lake data set using Bayesian statistics has also been
depth of 0.1 m has been used. Any further horizon- carried out (Aldenberg et al., 1995). The model has
tal or vertical distinction is not taken into account. been used for several scenario analyses. These include
At the base of the model are the water and nutri- studies on nutrient load reduction (Janse et al., 1992),
ent budgets (in- and outflow). The physico-chemical biomanipulation (Janse et al., 1995; Janse et al., in
module describes the exchange of detritus, inorgan- press) and combinations of these with dredging (Janse
ic matter and nutrients between sediment and water. et al., 1993; Zamurović-Nenad, 1993; Aysever, 1994).
Processes involved are sedimentation, resuspension, In this study, simulations have been performed
diffusion, burial and chemical adsorption. Mineraliza- for a hypothetical lake system which may be consid-
tion processes are described in both layers. Two mod- ered as representative for many shallow lakes occur-
ules, for phytoplankton and macrophytes, respectively, ring in The Netherlands. Its main characteristics are:
describe the primary production. The food web mod- mean depth = 2 m, areal hydraulic loading = 20 mm

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Figure 1. PCLake model structure. Doubled blocks denote compartments modelled in both dry weight and nutrient units. Three functional
groups of phytoplankton are distinguished: cyanobacteria, diatoms and other small edible algae. Arrows with solid lines denote mass fluxes
(e.g. food relations), arrows with dotted lines denote ‘empirical’ relations (minus sign denotes negative influence, otherwise positive influence).
Egestion and mortality fluxes of animal groups and respiration fluxes are not shown.

d 1 (= 7.2 m y 1 ), no seepage, porosity of upper sed- performed for ten years, with the nutrient loading set
iment = 0.9, sediment Fe content = 10 mg g 1 . Some to a fixed value, ranging from 0 to 2.5 g Pm 2 d 1 .
of the simulations have also been carried out for a mean The nitrogen loading has been set to 10 times the phos-
depth of 5 m and a mean depth of 10 m, with the same phorus loading. For every loading value, the simulation
hydraulic loading. The (theoretical) total P concentra- has been done twice, starting either from a macrophyte-
tion in the inflow to Dutch shallow lakes ranges from dominated state, or from a phytoplankton-dominated
0.1 to 1.0 mg P l 1 . Typical in-lake total phospho- state with high chlorophyll a, respectively. The result-
rus concentrations are between 0.05 and 0.5 mg P l 1 , ing summer-averaged total-P and chlorophyll a con-
while summer averaged chlorophyll-a concentrations centrations in the tenth year are shown (Figure 2a, b), as
are around 100–200 g l 1 (Lijklema et al., 1989). well as the relation between them (Figure 2c). The rela-
tions between nutrient input and both variables were
highly non-linear, with a rather sudden switch between
Results a macrophyte-dominated state with low chlorophyll a
values and a phytoplankton-dominated state with high
Variation of nutrient loading and initial conditions ones. Moreover, the response showed hysteresis, so
that the ‘critical’ nutrient loading was considerably
The long-term impact of different nutrient loadings on different whether one started from the ‘clear’ or from
the above-mentioned ‘average shallow lake’, with a the ‘turbid’ side. The calculations were also repeat-
depth of 2 m, was simulated. Simulations have been ed for some different parameter values. The values of

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.
Figure 2. Simulations for an average shallow lake (see text) with a
depth of 2 m, for a range of P loadings. The N loading is assumed
to be always 10 times the P loading. All simulations have been done
for two initial states, a clear-water state dominated by macrophytes
(solid symbols) and a turbid state with a blue-green algal dominance
(open symbols). Output values are summer-averages after 10 years
with the same loading conditions. a. in-lake total P as a function
of the P loading; b. chlorophyll a as a function of the P loading;
c. relation between chlorophyll a and in-lake total P concentration.
The broken line in Figure 2c is the empirically derived maximum
for a data base of Dutch lakes (Lijklema et al., 1989).

the switch points were notably sensitive for the para-


meters determining resuspension and sedimentation,
which are dependent on lake dimensions and sediment
characteristics. The lower the net sedimentation rate,
the lower were also the critical loading levels.
In comparable simulations of deeper lakes, where
the mean depth had been set to 5 m and 10 m, respec-
tively, this hysteresis phenomenon did not occur (Fig-
ure 3). These lakes were apparently too deep for Figure 3. Chlorophyll a to in-lake total P relation for three lakes
macrophyte development so that a phytoplankton dom- with a depth of 2 m, 5 m and 10 m, respectively, with equal water
inance appeared in all simulations, but with much low- inflow, for a range of P loadings. Simulations as in Figure 2. Solid
squares: depth 2 m, starting from clear state; diamonds: depth 2 m,
er chlorophyll a concentrations than in the simulations
starting from turbid state; plus signs: depth 5 m; circles: depth 10 m.
of the shallow lakes. The relation between phospho- The broken line is the empirically derived maximum for a data base
rus and chlorophyll a was more or less continuous in of Dutch lakes (Lijklema et al., 1989).
these cases. In the left part of the graphs, representing
a nutrient-limited situation, all curves overlap. To the
right, where light limitation occurs, the chlorophyll a These data are in agreement with the chlorophyll a and
concentrations decrease with lake depth, as expected. total-P model simulations.
The points in the left part of the graphs (Figures 2c
and 3) coincide with the line of the maximum summer- Eutrophication, de-eutrophication and management
averaged chlorophyll-a concentration at a given P con-
centration, empirically derived from a data set of 120 In order to study the dynamical behaviour of the mod-
lakes in The Netherlands (Lijklema et al., 1989). All el, the same hypothetical shallow lake with a depth of
of these lakes were dominated by phytoplankton, the 2 m was simulated during the course of eutrophica-
lakes with the higher chlorophyll a to total P ratios, up tion and restoration (Figure 4). The simulation started
till 1.4 mg mg 1 , being dominated by cyanobacteria. under mesotrophic conditions with the inflowing water

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. .

.
Figure 4. Simulations for an average shallow lake (see text) with a
depth of 2 m. After 10 years, nutrient loadings have been increased
containing 0.03 mg l 1 total phosphorus and 0.3 mg sevenfold. After another 10 years, three options were simulated:
l 1 total nitrogen. After 10 years, these concentra- (1) decrease in nutrient loading down to the starting value (circles);
(2) idem combined with dredging and food web management (tri-
tions were increased sevenfold, thus bringing the lake angles); (3) dredging and fish management only (dashed line with
into a hypertrophic state. After another 10 years, three ‘plus’ signs). a. total phosphorus; b. chlorophyll a; c. nutrient limi-
options were simulated: tation function of phytoplankton; d. submerged vegetation.
(a) cutting down the nutrient loadings to the former,
low, values.
(b) idem, combined with dredging and fish man- the water. After the load reduction at year 20, however,
agement, each carried out once. This was done in the the concentration did not quite drop down to the start-
model by removing 80% of the sediment detritus, half ing value. The chlorophyll a concentration (Figure 4b)
of the zoobenthos and 80% of the whitefish, and intro- remained low during the ‘mesotrophic period’, with
ducing 0.1 g d.w. m 2 predatory fish. small edible algae dominating (data not shown). Their
(c) dredging and fish management without nutrient growth rate in mid-summer is severely limited by the
load reduction. availability of nutrients (Figure 4c). Within two years
The effects of the increase and subsequent decrease after the increase in loading, the algae were replaced
in nutrient loading are discussed first. The simulated in- by blue-greens, in high density. Their growth rate
lake total phosphorus concentration (Figure 4a) gener- was hardly limited by nutrient supply. Algal biomass
ally followed the changes in inflow concentration with decreased again following the load reduction at year 20,
a lag time of about 4 years. This delay may be caused but the phytoplankton remained to be dominated by
by a slower reaction of the sediment with respect to blue-greens. As a consequence of the reduced loading,

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the algal growth rate became nutrient limited again mechanisms, the critical loading level at which a shift
to some extent. The zooplankton almost completely occurs is dependent on the initial state of the system:
vanished when the blue-greens dominance established, the shift from turbid to clear occurs at a much lower
while the whitefish density gradually increased and the loading level than the opposite one (hysteresis). Either
predatory fish disappeared. The development of the state has a certain attraction field, which are separated
submerged vegetation (Figure 4d) was more or less by a so-called line separation. A shift may be invoked
inverse to that of the blue-greens. The lake started in by a (natural or anthropogenic) disturbance of the sys-
a stable, macrophyte-dominated situation. By uptake tem, moving it across the separation line (cf. Scheffer,
of the scarce nutrients, they clearly contributed to the 1990). Such a shift seems to be always correlated with
nutrient limitation of the algae. The macrophyte den- a dramatic change in water transparency, a key factor
sity first increased after the load increase, followed by for survival of submerged macrophytes. An example
an almost complete disappearance. This was caused by of a disturbance might be food web management, pos-
a deteriorating light climate (decreasing Secchi disk sibly combined with physical measures as dredging.
depth) due to increasing seston concentrations. The The model suggests that additional management is, on
load reduction 10 years later failed to restore the macro- long term, more (or only) effective if combined with
phyte dominance. Summarizing, eutrophication made load reduction, as was also concluded from biomanip-
the system change from a clear, macrophyte-dominated ulation experiments (Gulati et al., 1990a). Analyses
state to a turbid state, dominated by blue-greens. This like this one may contribute to improved predictions
process could not be reverted by nutrient load reduction of the chance of success of additional management at
alone, in agreement with field observations in compa- different nutrient levels.
rable lakes. The model analyses also stress the close interrela-
Load reduction combined with dredging and fish tionship between the nutrient cycle on the one hand
stock management, however, proved to be able to and the biological structure on the other. The compe-
make the system ‘switch back’: the blue-greens were tition between the different primary producers, phyto-
replaced by small edible algae again, in low densi- plankton and macrophytes, is related to both light cli-
ty, and the vegetation reestablished, as well as the mate, nutrient availability and food web interactions.
piscivorous fish and the zooplankton. The phytoplank- Changes in trophic state may cause changes in food
ton growth rate became nutrient limited again. Appar- web structure, while the latter may influence the sys-
ently, the sudden improvement in light climate creat- tem’s (resistance to) response to nutrient loading. Cas-
ed favourable conditions for return of the vegetation, cading effects in the food web may be analyzed also
which was able to stabilize the new situation. To com- in terms of changes in nutrient cycles (cf. Carpenter
pare, the direct system manipulation as stand-alone et al., 1992), while the overall trophic state of the sys-
measure, while the nutrient loading remained high, tem sets a constraint to its total productivity and may
was only temporarily effective and failed to reestablish be regarded as a general boundary condition. It may be
a stable clear state of the system. concluded that it is a useful approach to integrate these
aspects in one mathematical model in order to study
the combined effects of bottom-up and top-down con-
Discussion trol. It also allows evaluation of different ecological
hypotheses and mechanisms. This approach may be
The model results confirm the existing evidence that complementary to the existing modelling tools for the
shallow lakes may have two alternative states, a clear- analysis of subsystems (e.g. Scheffer, 1990) and to the
water state dominated by macrophytes and a turbid more detailed eutrophication models.
state dominated by phytoplankton (Moss, 1990; Schef- The results of the long-term simulations for total
fer, 1990; Jeppesen et al., 1990). Several factors deter- phosphorus and chlorophyll a are, in general, within
mine which state prevails in a certain case. A general realistic ranges, if compared with empirically derived
constraint is set by the external nutrient loading. At a relations. Also the general shape of the response is in
very high loading, only the turbid state is stable, where- agreement with observations from various shallow lake
as the opposite is true for very low loadings. In the studies (op. cit.). The calculation of the ‘critical load-
intermediate range, both states may exist and switch- ing value’, the switch point between the turbid and
es between the two states are possible. Because both the clear state, might be useful for the derivation of
states possess a number of self-stabilizing buffering ecological standards for water quality. The calculated

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values should, however, only be regarded as indica- De Haan, H., L. Van Liere, S. P. Klapwijk & E. Van Donk, 1993.
tive values at this stage, because they are dependent on The structure and function of fen lakes in relation to water table
management in The Netherlands. Hydrobiologia 265: 155–177.
model parameters which have only partly been calibrat- Gulati, R. D., E. H. R. R. Lammens, M.-L. Meijer & E. Van Donk
ed. This is due to the rather limited range in the present (eds), 1990a. Biomanipulatlon – Tool for Water Management.
water quality data in Dutch lakes, where, more specif- Developments in Hydrobiology 61. Kluwer Academic Publishers,
ically, clear lakes are lacking. More extensive cali- Dordrecht, 628 pp. Reprinted from Hydrobiologia 200–201.
Gulati, R. D., K. Siewertsen & L. Van Liere, 1991. Carbon and
bration on a wider data set is needed. Secondly, many phosphorus relationships of zooplankton and its seston food in
model parameters are more or less uncertain due to nat- Loosdrecht lakes. In Giussani, G., L. Van Liere & B. Moss (eds),
ural variability or other reasons. As (part of) this uncer- Ecosystem research in freshwater environment recovery. Mem.
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Gulati, R. D., L. Van Liere & K. Siewertsen, 1990b. The Loosdrecht
in a probabilistic rather than a deterministic way. The lake system: Man’s role in its creation, perturbation and rehabil-
uncertainty in the results as a function of the combined itation. In Ravera, O. (ed.), Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems,
uncertainty in the parameters should be established by Perturbation and Recovery. Ellis Harwood Ltd., Chichester, UK:
593–606.
means of appropriate statistical tools, such as Bayesian
Janse, J. H. & T. Aldenberg, 1996. The eutrophication model
uncertainty analysis. The model outcome may then be PCLake. RIVM, Bilthoven, report no. 732404005.
expressed as, for instance, the chance for recovery of Janse, J. H., T. Aldenberg & P. R. G. Kramer, 1992. A mathematical
a lake or lake type under different circumstances or model of the phosphorus cycle in Lake Loosdrecht and simulation
of additional measures. Hydrobiologia 233: 119–136.
with different management options, or in terms of the
Janse, J. H., J. Van der Does & J. C. Van der Vlugt, 1993. PCLake;
minimum load reduction to be achieved. This approach Modelling eutrophication and its control measures in Reeuwijk
resembles the ecological risk assessment adopted for Lakes. In G. Giussani & C. Callieri (eds), Proc. 5th Int. conf. on
toxic substances and other environmental issues. conserv. and managem. of lakes, Stresa, Italy: 117–120.
Janse, J. H., E. Van Donk & T. Aldenberg, 1996. A model study on
the stability of the macrophyte-dominated clear-water as affected
by biological factors. Wat. Res. (in press)
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ent cycles in relation to food web structure in a biomanipulated
shallow lake. Neth. J. aquat.. Ecol. 29: 67–79.
The model results are in agreement with the concept of Jeppesen, E., J. P. Jensen, P. Kristensen, M. Søndergaard,
two possible stable states, dominated by macrophytes E. Mortensen, O. Sortkjaer & K. Olrik, 1990. Fish manipula-
and phytoplankton, respectively. The simulated long- tion as a lake restoration tool in shallow, eutrophic, temperate
term response of a hypothetical ‘average shallow lake lakes 2: threshold levels, long-term stability and conclusions.
Hydrobiologia 200/201: 219–227.
system’ as a function of the nutrient input was high- Jeppesen, E., P. Kristensen, J. P. Jensen, M. Søndergaard,
ly non-linear and showed hysteresis. The modelling E. Mortensen & T. Lauridsen, 1991. Recovery resilience fol-
approach presented here, taking into account both the lowing a reduction in external phosphorus loading of shallow,
eutrophic Danish lakes: duration, regulating factors and meth-
biological structure and the nutrient cycle, may be a
ods for overcoming resilience. In G. Giussani, L. Van Liere &
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Moss, B., 1990. Engineering and biological approaches to the
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