Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Assignment 1 & 2
Course Name
Security Analysis and Portfolio Management
Submitted to
Submitted By
Name : Ringkel Barua
ID : 1902920803306
Program : MBA (1 Year)
Major : Accounting
Semester : 2nd
Batch : 29th
Business Tenets
• Is the business simple and understandable? (This makes it easier to estimate future cash
flows with a high degree of confidence.)
• Does the business have a consistent operating history? (Again, cash flow estimates can be
made with more confidence.)
• Does the business have favorable long-term prospects? (Does the business have a
franchise product or service that is needed or desired, has no close substitute, and is not
regulated? This implies that the firm has pricing flexibility.)
Management Tenets
• Is management rational? (Is the allocation of capital to projects that provide returns above
the cost of capital? If not, does management pay capital to stockholders through
dividends or the repurchase of stock?)
• Is management candid with its shareholders? (Does management tell owners everything
you would want to know?)
• Does management resist the institutional imperative? (Does management not attempt to
imitate the behavior of other managers?)
Financial Tenets
• Focus on return on equity, not earnings per share. (Look for strong ROE with little or no
debt.)
• Calculate owner earnings. (Owner earnings are basically equal to free cash flow after
capital expenditures.)
• Look for a company with relatively high sustainable profit margins for its industry.
• Make sure the company has created at least one dollar of market value for every dollar
retained.
Market Tenets
• What is the intrinsic value of the business? (Value is equal to future free cash flows
discounted at a government bond rate. Using this low discount rate is considered
appropriate because Warren Buffett is very confident of his cash flow estimates due to his
deep understanding of the business based on extensive analysis. This confidence implies
low risk.)
• Can the business be purchased at a significant discount to its fundamental intrinsic value?
They are typically securities issued by a corporation or governmental body for specified
term: bonds become due for payment at maturity, when the par value/ face value of bond
are returned to the investors.
Bonds usually pay fixed periodic interest installments, called coupon payments. Some
bonds pay variable income.
When investor buys bond, he or she becomes a creditor of the issuer. Buyer does not gain
any kind of owner ship rights to the issuer, unlike in the case with equity securities.
3. Bond Characteristics
A bond can be characterized based on (1) its intrinsic features, (2) its type, (3) its indenture
provisions, or (4) the features that affect its cash flows and/or its maturity.
3.1.1. Coupon
The coupon rate is the amount of interest that the bondholder will receive per payment,
expressed as a percentage of the par value.
Coupon interest rate is usually fixed throughout the life of the bond. It can also vary with
a money market index.
Not all bonds have coupons. Zero-coupon bonds are those that pay no coupons and thus
have a coupon rate of 0%.
Based on different coupon rates, there are fixed rate bonds, floating rate bonds, and
inflation linked bonds.
3.1.2. Maturity
Maturity date refers to the final payment date of a loan or other financial instrument.
As long as all due payments have been made, the issuer has no further obligations to the
bond holders after the maturity date.
The length of time until the maturity date is often referred to as the term or tenor or
maturity of a bond.
In the market for United States Treasury securities, there are three categories of bond
maturities: short term, medium term, and long term.
3.4.1. Callable :
A callable bond, also known as a redeemable bond, is a bond that the issuer may redeem before it
reaches the stated maturity date. A callable bond allows the issuing company to pay off their debt
early. A business may choose to call their bond if market interest rates move lower, which will
allow them to re-borrow at a more beneficial rate. Callable bonds thus compensate investors for
that potentiality as they typically offer a more attractive interest rate or coupon rate due to their
callable nature
3.4.2. Convertible:
Convertible bonds are bonds that give to its owner the privilege of exchanging them for other
securities of the issuing corporation on a preferred basis at some future date or under certain
conditions.
A put provision will generally specify multiple dates when the bond may be redeemed before the
maturity date. Multiple dates provide the bondholder with the ability to reassess their investment
every few years, in the event, they wish to redeem for reinvestment.
∫ ¿i ,t −Pi ,t ¿
HPR i,t = P i ,t +1 +
Pi , t
Where:
Assume an investor buys a stock for $60 a share, owns the stock for five years, and earns a total
amount of $10 in dividends. If the investor sells the stock for $80, his per share gain is $80 - $60
= $20. In addition, he has earned $10 in dividend income for a total gain of $20 + $10 = $30. The
rate of return for the stock is thus a $30 gain per share, divided by the $60 cost per share, or 50%.
5. Participating Issuers
There are at least five types of bonds. They each have different sellers, purposes, buyers, and
levels of risk versus return.
Sovereign bonds are tradable, fixed-income bonds backed by the full faith and credit of the
country’s treasury. These are considered one of the safest investments on the market because the
state has the power to tax its people to meet its obligations. (Note: “Safe” doesn’t mean free of
risk.)
But with low risk comes low returns. Sovereign government bonds are one of the weakest
performing securities in terms of profit.
Agency bonds can also be issued by government sponsored entities. These are quasi-government
organizations that are privately owned but heavily regulated and given a mission to provide
public services. Bonds from GSEs are not fully guaranteed in the same way as sovereign
government bonds and municipal bonds, so they come with a higher risk.
5.3. Securitized/Collateralized Issues:
These can be either government agencies or corporate issues that are backed by cash flow
securities such as mortgages or car loans. Collateralized securities can include several different
issues and structured cash flows.
5.4. Corporations:
Corporate bonds are bonds issued by corporations, LLCs, partnerships, and other commercial
entities. These are bonds that have BBB or better ratings from Standard & Poor’s or Moody’s
Investors Service. These bonds don’t come with much risk of default because the investing
services have evaluated them and declared them to be low-risk. (We’ll talk about bonds with
lower ratings in a minute.)
While junk bonds are the riskiest type of bonds you can buy, they’re still generally safer than
stocks. They also offer higher yields with interest rates that are several times higher than
government bonds.
The results also demonstrate that there is an inverse relationship between yields and bond prices:
The realized yields over a horizon holding period are variations on the promised yield
equations. The substitution of P f(future selling price) and hp into the present value model
provides the following realized yield model:
2 hp
Ci/ 2 Pf
∑
Pm = t =1
( i
(1+ )
2
t
+
i 2hp
(1+ )
2 )
Assignment-2
1. CALCULATING FUTURE BOND PRICES
Bond prices are worth watching from day to day as a useful indicator of the direction of interest
rates and, more generally, future economic activity. Not incidentally, they're an important
component of a well-managed and diversified investment portfolio.
Everybody knows that high-quality bonds are a relatively safe investment. But far fewer
understand how bond prices and yields work. In fact, much of this information is irrelevant to the
individual investor. It is used only in the secondary market, where bonds are sold for a discount
to their face value.
2 n−2 h p
Ci /2 Pp
Pf =
∑
t =1
( i
(1+ )
2
t
+
i 2 n−2 h p
(1+ )
2 )
Where,
Consider a 10 percent, 25-year bond with a promised YTM of 12 percent. You would compute
the price of this issue as:
50
1 1
Pf =
∑
t =1
( (1+
0.120
2
)
t
+1000
(1+
0.120 50
2
) )
=50(15.7619) + 1,000(0.0543)
=$842.40
An extremely active OTC market exists for products designed to manage an investor’s or an
issuer’s interest rate risk. In describing strategies involving these instruments, it is useful to
classify them as either forward-based or option-based contracts.
The FRA determines the rates to be used along with the termination date and notional value.
FRAs are cash-settled with the payment based on the net difference between the interest rate of
the contract and the floating rate in the market called the reference rate. The notional amount is
not exchanged, but rather a cash amount based on the rate differentials and the notional value of
the contract.
FRAP=FRA payment
FRA=Forward rate agreement rate, or fixed interestrate that will be paid
R=Reference, or floating interest rate used in the contract
NP=Notional principal, or amount of the loan thatinterest is applied to
P=Period, or number of days in the contract period
Y=Number of days in the year based on the correctday-count convention for the contract
Calculate the difference between the forward rate and the floating rate or reference rate.
Multiply the rate differential by the notional amount of the contract and by the number of
days in the contract. Divide the result by 360 (days).
In the second part of the formula, divide the number of days in the contract by 360 and
multiply the result by 1 + the reference rate. The divide the value into 1. Multiply the result
from the right side of the formula by the left side of the formula.
Cap Payment = Max[Notional × (Index rate – Cap strike rate) × (Days in settlement period /
360)]
Floor Payment = Max[Notional × (Floor strike rate – Index rate) × (Days in settlement
period/360)]
2.2.2. Collars
An interest rate collar can be created by buying a cap and selling a floor.
This creates an interest rate range and the collar holder is protected from rates above the
cap strike rate, but has forgone the benefits of interest rates falling below the floor rate
sold.
When the cost of the floor sold equals the cost of the cap purchased, it is called a “zero
cost collar”
In Equity-Linked Swap, The investor may reduce financing costs by referring the transaction to
some other party who has a cost advantage, instead of holding the shares himself over that
period. To do this, the investor may enter a swap with a third-party so that the third-party (the
swap buyer) receives any capital appreciation and dividends on the underlying stock and pays, in
return, the financing costs. In turn, the seller would be able to have the equity exposure necessary
to his investments or portfolio.
Equity swaps are traded in the OTC markets and can have maturities out to 10 years or beyond
the net settlement payment on the equity swap from the company’s standpoint can be calculated
as the difference between the variable-rate outflow and the equity-linked inflow, where:
Number of Days
Payment = [LIBOR – Spread] × [Notional Principal] × [ ]
360
Where, Index new and Index old represent the index levels occurring on the current and
immediate past settlement dates, assuming all dividends are reinvested.
4. CREDIT-RELATED SWAPS
A credit default swap (CDS) is a financial derivative or contract that allows an investor to
"swap" or offset his or her credit risk with that of another investor. For example, if a lender is
worried that a borrower is going to default on a loan, the lender could use a CDS to offset or
swap that risk. To swap the risk of default, the lender buys a CDS from another investor who
agrees to reimburse the lender in the case the borrower defaults. Most CDS will require an
ongoing premium payment to maintain the contract, which is like an insurance policy.
A credit default swap is the most common form of credit derivative and may involve municipal
bonds, emerging market bonds, mortgage-backed securities or corporate bonds. A credit default
swap is a type of credit derivative contract.
Bonds and other debt securities have risk that the borrower will not repay the debt or its interest.
Because debt securities will often have lengthy terms to maturity, as much as 30 years, it is
difficult for the investor to make reliable estimates about that risk over the entire life of the
instrument.
5. WARRANTS
Warrants are also long-term securities but are generally shorter-term than convertibles. They
grant investors the right to purchase at a fixed (known as the “exercise price”) for a
predetermined amount of time, often several years.
Warrants are often tied to bonds or preferred stock, but can also be issued independently.
The exercise price is usually higher than the price at which the shares for the company are
currently trading, but if those shares then increase in value, the investor will still be able to
purchase at the exercise price.
Warrants are more valuable in volatile markets when chances of the price swinging above the
exercise price are good. They become less valuable as the warrant expiration date approaches
because the chances of a favorable price swing are greatly reduced.
6. CONVERTIBLE SECURITIES
Convertible securities can be bonds or preferred stocks that pay regular interest and can be
converted into shares of common stock (sometimes conditioned on the stock price appreciating
to a predetermined level).
A convertible bond (CB) is a type of bond that can be converted into shares of common stock in
the issuing company or cash of equal value, at an agreed-upon price. It is a hybrid security with
debt and equity -like features. Although a CB typically has a coupon rate lower than that of
similar, non-convertible debt, the instrument carries additional value through the option to
convert the bond to stock, and thereby participate in further growth in the company’s equity
value. The investor receives the potential upside of conversion into equity while protecting the
downside with cash flow from coupon payments and the return of principal upon maturity.
Convertible bonds are usually issued offering a higher yield than obtainable on the shares into
which the bonds convert. Convertible bond markets in the United States and Japan are of primary
global importance because they are the largest in terms of market capitalization.
Convertible bonds have all the features of typical bonds, plus the following additional
features:
Conversion price: The nominal price per share at which conversion takes place.
Conversion ratio: The number of shares each convertible bond converts into.
Parity (Conversion) value: Equity price × Conversion ratio.
Conversion premium: Represent the divergence of the market value of the CB compared
to that of the parity value.
Call features: The ability of the issuer (on some bonds) to call a bond early for
redemption.
Put features: The ability of the holder of the bond (the lender) to force the issuer (the
borrower) to repay the loan at a date earlier than the maturity.
Convertible preferred stocks are securities that contain a provision by which the holder may
convert the preferred into the common stock of the company (or, sometimes, into the common
stock of an affiliated company) under certain conditions – among which may be the specification
of a future date when conversion may begin, a certain number of common shares per preferred
share or a certain price per share for the common stock.
7. Convertible Preferred Stock
Convertible preferred stock is a type of preferred stock that gives holders the option to convert
their preferred shares into a fixed number of common shares after a specified date. It is a hybrid
type of security that has features of both debt (from its fixed guaranteed dividend payment)
and equity (from its ability to convert into common stock).
All stocks represent a portion of the ownership of a company. They can be divided into different
types. Common stock is the most common, as the name suggests, followed by preferred stock.
Preferred stock can also be further divided into different types, including cumulative preferred,
callable preferred, participating preferred, and convertible preferred. Preferred stock, unlike
common stock, is typically given to investors in young companies, and the company and the
investors negotiate the terms. Venture capitalists typically receive convertible preferred stock
when they invest in a startup.
8. Convertible bond
As the name implies, a convertible bond gives the holder the option to convert or exchange it for
a predetermined number of shares in the issuing company. When issued, they act just like regular
corporate bonds, albeit with a slightly lower interest rate.
Because convertibles can be changed into stock and, thus, benefit from a rise in the price of the
underlying stock, companies offer lower yields on convertibles. If the stock performs poorly,
there is no conversion and an investor is stuck with the bond's sub-par return below what a non-
convertible corporate bond would get. As always, there is a tradeoff between risk and return.
Companies issue convertible bonds or debentures for two main reasons. The first is to lower the
coupon rate on debt. Investors will generally accept a lower coupon rate on a convertible bond,
compared with the coupon rate on an otherwise identical regular bond, because of its conversion
feature. This enables the issuer to save on interest expenses, which can be substantial in the case
of a large bond issue.
The payback or break-even time, measures how long the higher interest income from the
convertible bond (compared to the dividend income from the common stock) must persist to
make up for the difference between the price of the bond and its conversion value (i.e., the
conversion premium). The calculation is as follows:
Portfolio manager has the final authority in any major asset management firm relating to
investment of his portfolio. He has to be cautious and at the same time should have a higher risk-
appetite to ensure his clients earn a fair profit. These following traits ensure both:
Analysts and managers often perform fundamental analysis on these companies together to
assess their potentials. The difference, in my opinion, is that managers are responsible for the
ranking and analysis process and ensure that the investment philosophy is consistently carried
out. Value managers usually place more emphasis on such valuation variables as intrinsic value
arrived at using discount cash flow models or price multiples, whereas growth managers tend to
put more weight on sales and profit growth, pricing power, and market share, etc.
If portfolio managers hesitate when they exit positions, they often run the risk of letting small
losses balloon into major headaches. Similarly, if portfolio managers do not lock in profits when
they should, it could be equally damaging to their performance.
Peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analysis used by
professional analysts and by individual investors. Because companies in a peer group share
similar traits, such as industry sector or size, it lends itself to relative value analysis. Relative
valuation among peers in a group has proven to be efficient and effective, quickly showing
which stocks may be overvalued, and which might make good additions to a portfolio. While
there are other methods of determining when a stock is worth buying, such as discounted cash
flow or technical analysis, peer comparison analysis remains a key tool for
uncovering undervalued stocks.
Because the data necessary to conduct the analysis is generally public and readily accessible on
financial websites, it is easy for anybody to begin employing this method of analysis in order to
identify opportunities
Treynor introduced the concept of the security market line, which defines the relationship
between portfolio returns and market rates of returns whereby the slope of the line measures the
relative volatility between the portfolio and the market (as represented by beta). The beta
coefficient is the volatility measure of a stock portfolio to the market itself. The greater the line's
slope, the better the risk-return tradeoff.
The Treynor measure, also known as the reward-to-volatility ratio, is defined as:
R i−RFR
Ti= βi
Where:
Ri= the average rate of return for Portfolio during a specified time period
RFR = the average rate of return on a risk-free investment during the same time period
βi= the slope of the fund, s characteristic line during that time period
The numerator identifies the risk premium, and the denominator corresponds to the portfolio
risk. The resulting value represents the portfolio's return per unit risk.
To illustrate, suppose that the 10-year annual return for the S&P 500 (market portfolio) is 10%
while the average annual return on Treasury bills (a good proxy for the risk-free rate) is 5%.
Then, assume the evaluation is of three distinct portfolio managers with the following 10-year
results:
The higher the Treynor measure, the better the portfolio. If the portfolio manager (or portfolio) is
evaluated on performance alone, manager C seems to have yielded the best results. However,
when considering the risks that each manager took to attain their respective returns, Manager B
demonstrated a better outcome. In this case, all three managers performed better than the
aggregate market.
Because this measure only uses systematic risk, it assumes that the investor already has an
adequately diversified portfolio and, therefore, unsystematic risk (also known as diversifiable
risk) is not considered. As a result, this performance measure is most applicable to investors who
hold diversified portfolios.
10.4. Sharp Ratio
The Sharpe ratio is almost identical to the Treynor measure, except that the risk measure is the
standard deviation of the portfolio instead of considering only the systematic risk as represented
by beta. Conceived by Bill Sharpe,2 this measure closely follows his work on the capital asset
pricing model (CAPM) and, by extension, uses total risk to compare portfolios to the capital
market line.3
PR−RFR
Sharp Ratio=
SD
Where:
PR = Portfolio return
SD =Standard deviation
The Jensen ratio measures how much of the portfolio's rate of return is attributable to the
manager's ability to deliver above-average returns, adjusted for market risk. The higher the ratio,
the better the risk-adjusted returns. A portfolio with a consistently positive excess return will
have a positive alpha while a portfolio with a consistently negative excess return will have a
negative alpha.
Jenson’s alpha=(PR−CAPM)
Where,
PR = Portfolio return