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Bipolar Disorders 2000: 2: 93–101

Printed in Ireland. All rights reser6ed

Review

The impact of lithium prophylaxis on the


course of bipolar disorder: a review of the
research evidence
Maj M. The impact of lithium prophylaxis on the course of bipolar Mario Maj
disorder: a review of the research evidence. Department of Psychiatry, University of
Bipolar Disord 2000: 2: 93 – 101. © Munksgaard, 2000 Naples SUN, Naples, Italy

A critical review is provided of the available research evidence concern-


ing the efficacy and effectiveness of lithium prophylaxis in bipolar dis-
order. It is emphasized that, in spite of the limitations of available
placebo-controlled trials and naturalistic studies, lithium is the only
drug whose prophylactic activity in bipolar disorder is convincingly Key words: bipolar disorder –
proved, and remains the first-choice medication in the long-term treat- discontinuation – lithium – naturalistic
ment of bipolar patients. The impact of lithium prophylaxis is likely to studies – placebo-controlled trials –
be less significant on atypical and comorbid cases of bipolar disorder predictors of response – prophylaxis
than in typical manic – depressive illness, but the superiority of other
medications over lithium in the long-term treatment of those cases is at Received 16 July 1999, revised and
present not convincingly proved by research. Currently available re- accepted for publication 17 September
search evidence does not seem to support the idea that lithium exerts 1999
its prophylactic effect on relapses but not on recurrences of bipolar Corresponding author: Mario Maj, Clinica
disorder. Clinicians should be aware of the fact that the drop-out rate Psichiatrica, Primo Policlinico Universitario,
in bipolar patients receiving long-term lithium prophylaxis is high even Largo Madonna delle Grazie, 80138 Napoli,
if treatment surveillance is accurate, and that complete suppression of Italy. Fax: +39 81 5666523; e-mail:
recurrences is a relatively rare outcome of prophylaxis. majmario@tin.it

Lithium is still unanimously regarded as a first-line with a special emphasis on those issues that have
agent in the prophylactic treatment of bipolar dis- been most debated in the last few years.
order (1–4). However, the magnitude of its impact
on the course of the disorder, especially on the
long term, has been repeatedly questioned during Placebo-controlled trials and their limitations
the last decade. For example, it has been main- The efficacy of lithium in preventing the recur-
tained that the benefits conferred by the prescrip- rences of bipolar disorder has been tested in several
tion of lithium to bipolar patients in ordinary double-blind placebo-controlled trials, all pub-
clinical practice are modest compared with the lished during the 1970s (Table 1). All these studies,
results of clinical trials (5); that the original con- except one conducted in a very small patient sam-
trolled trials of lithium prophylaxis produced spu- ple (10), found a statistically significant superiority
rious results owing to flawed methods (6); that of lithium over placebo in reducing the recurrence
lithium exerts its prophylactic activity on relapses rate during the observation period. Of the seven
but not on recurrences of bipolar disorder, so that studies reporting separate data for manic and de-
its effect does not persist after the first year of pressive episodes, four found a statistically signifi-
recovery from the index episode (7); and that cant superiority of lithium over placebo in
about one-third of lithium-refractory patients are preventing manic recurrences, and one a significant
not initial non-responders, but show a pattern of superiority of lithium in preventing depressive
gradual loss of efficacy, suggesting the develop- recurrences.
ment of tolerance (8). Of the above-mentioned ten double-blind stud-
Here we provide a critical review of the available ies, four were discontinuation trials, i.e., trials in
research evidence concerning the efficacy and effec- which a sample of patients already on treatment
tiveness of lithium prophylaxis in bipolar disorder, with lithium was randomly subdivided into two
93
Maj

subsamples, one of which continued to take


lithium and the other was switched to placebo.

– L: 57, P: 64)
This design may have artificially inflated the recur-
rence rate in patients receiving placebo, and conse-
% Recurrences quently the difference between lithium and placebo
(6), since lithium discontinuation is reportedly fol-

50
L: 25, P: 42

L: 16, P: 26

L: 22, P: 62

48

44
L: 0, P: 23*
(depressive)

(bipolar II
lowed by a period of high risk of recurrences,

L: 56, P:
L: 28, P:

L: 29, P:
especially of manic episodes (see below). In sup-
port to this idea, in one of those studies (12), the
ratio between the number of manic and depressive
episodes was 0.67:1 before the beginning of lithium

(bipolar II – L: 0, P: 9)
treatment and became 3.5:1 after lithium with-
drawal. The above criticism may be extended to
% Recurrences

some of the other studies (parallel-group prospec-


L: 32, P: 68*

L: 20, P: 56*
L: 11, P: 38

L: 59, P: 94
L: 0, P: 27*

L: 8, P: 75*

L: 6, P: 25
tive trials), in which some patients were or had
(manic)

been recently treated with lithium at the moment


of recruitment. It should be pointed out, however,
that rebound after discontinuation is in itself an
evidence in favor of the mood-stabilizing effect of
lithium.
% Recurrences

18, P: 95*
33, P: 83*

43, P: 80*

L: 28, P: 77*

L: 44, P: 93*

In some of the parallel-group prospective trials,


57, P: 78
0, P: 55*

6, P: 33*

the treating physicians knew which patients were


taking lithium, and were allowed to increase the
(total)

dosage of the drug in the presence of prodromal


L:
L:
L:
L:
L:
L:

manic symptoms. This may have artificially re-


duced the recurrence rate in patients randomized
follow-up (months)

to lithium (6). In fact, in one of those studies (14),


D= discontinuation trial; PRP = parallel-group randomized prospective trial; L = lithium; P =placebo.

it is reported that part of the patients classified as


Duration of

lithium responders had prodromal symptoms of


Up to 28
Up to 36
Up to 53
Up to 5

mania during the observation period. Nevertheless,


5–24
4–6
24

24

an increase of the dosage of a medication upon the


6
6

appearance of prodromal symptoms of a new


Table 1. Double-blind placebo-controlled trials of lithium in the prophylaxis of bipolar disorder

episode of the target disorder is in itself a preven-


L: 101, P: 104 (patients hospitalized for a

L: 17, P: 18 (plus bipolar II – L: 7, P: 11)

tive strategy, which would have been ineffective if


L: 18, P: 13 (patients hospitalized for a

lithium were inactive (19).


Other limitations of the available trials compar-
ing lithium and placebo in the prophylaxis of bipo-
* Statistically significant difference between lithium and placebo.

lar disorder are the focus on patients completing


L: 16, P: 24 (all bipolar II)

the treatment period (disregarding drop-outs), the


depressive episode)

short follow-up period (no more than 6 months in


four of the studies), the fact that operational crite-
manic episode)
No. of patients

ria for patients’ diagnosis and standardized rating


L: 28, P: 22

L: 17, P: 21
L: 12, P: 12
L: 18, P: 18

L: 25, P: 27
L: 7, P: 8

scales were not used, and the extensive use of


additional drugs. Concerning this last issue, how-
ever, it is remarkable that in a trial in which
unrestricted additional use of neuroleptics, antide-
pressants, and electroconvulsive therapy was al-
Design

lowed (11), patients on lithium received


PRP

PRP

PRP

PRP
PRP
PRP

significantly less neuroleptic and antidepressant


D
D

D
D

medication than those on placebo, and no patient


on lithium (vs. 43% of those on placebo) required
Coppen et al. (11)

Stallone et al. (16)


Baastrup et al. (9)

Cundall et al. (12)

Dunner et al. (17)


Hullin et al. (13)

electroconvulsive therapy.
Fieve et al. (18)
Prien et al. (14)

Prien et al. (15)

Finally, the inclusion and exclusion criteria


Melia (10)

adopted in the above controlled trials may have


Study

reduced the representativeness of the enrolled sam-


ples of bipolar patients. Actually, in a recent natu-
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Lithium prophylaxis of bipolar disorder

ralistic study, Sachs et al. (20) reported that only nificant than that expected on the basis of the
23% of their clinical sample would have been eligi- results of controlled trials (24).
ble for the double-blind trials of the 1970s. How- However, the above-mentioned clinical and epi-
ever, an alternative perspective is that the patient demiological studies have some important draw-
samples enrolled in the above controlled trials were backs. In the study by Markar and Mander (5),
more representative of ‘typical’ manic – depressive although the observation period was 6 years, the
illness, whereas those recruited in recent naturalis- lithium-treated group also included patients who
tic studies included a large proportion of bipolar had received the drug for only 6 months: these
patients with atypical features (mood-incongruent patients may well have relapsed after lithium dis-
psychotic symptoms, mixed states, rapid cycling) continuation. In the study by Harrow et al. (21),
or comorbidities, which made them more likely to the periodic check of plasma lithium levels was not
be treatment resistant, as well as some patients ensured, so that some lithium-treated patients may
who had already been treated unsuccessfully with have not been adequately exposed to the drug.
lithium. Moreover, under naturalistic conditions, the illness
Overall, despite the above limitations, the evi- course is not only a consequence of the treatment
dence provided by double-blind placebo-controlled choice, but also a determinant of that choice (for
trials appears consistent and impressive, and instance, patients with less severe or frequent affec-
lithium is the only drug for which such substantial tive episodes may be less likely to receive long-term
evidence of a prophylactic effect in bipolar disor- lithium prophylaxis); therefore, the lack of a sig-
der is currently available. nificant difference with respect to outcome, be-
tween patients who have received lithium and
those who have not, cannot be regarded as evi-
Naturalistic studies and their limitations dence that the drug is not effective. On the other
During the 1980s and the 1990s, no further double- hand, the above-mentioned epidemiological studies
blind placebo-controlled trials testing the prophy- have not documented that patients who were hos-
lactic effect of lithium have been published, but pitalized during the observation period had actu-
several naturalistic studies of bipolar patients re- ally received lithium prophylaxis; in fact, there are
ceiving lithium prophylaxis under routine clinical other studies (25) showing the same increase in the
conditions have appeared. Markar and Mander (5) hospitalization rate for mania in the years follow-
ing the introduction of lithium (ascribed to the
studied retrospectively 83 bipolar patients who had
change in diagnostic habits, with the broadening of
recovered from a manic episode, of whom 41 had
the concept of mania), but a decrease of that rate
received prophylactic lithium for at least 6 months
in patients treated with lithium. Finally, it is im-
after the episode and 42 had not, and did not find
portant to emphasize that a gap between the effi-
a significant difference between the two groups
cacy of a treatment (i.e., its therapeutic potential,
with respect to the number of hospitalizations and
as resulting from controlled trials) and its effective-
the time spent in hospital during a 6-year observa- ness (i.e., its impact on the target disorder in ordi-
tion period. Harrow et al. (21) followed up nary clinical conditions) is a common observation
prospectively after discharge 73 patients hospital- in medicine (26), being due to such factors as
ized for a manic episode, and found that those who patients’ incomplete compliance, physicians’ inade-
took lithium throughout the 1-year period follow- quate supervision of treatment, and underdiagno-
ing discharge did not differ significantly from those sis/undertreatment of the target disorder. All these
who did not receive the drug throughout that factors are significantly at work in the case of
period, with respect to several outcome measures. lithium prophylaxis.
Sachs et al. (20) studied retrospectively 100 bipolar In our prospective study (27) carried out in all
patients, of whom 67 had received lithium, alone bipolar I patients (n=402) who had started
or in combination with other drugs, and 33 had lithium prophylaxis at a lithium clinic over more
not, and detected no significant difference between than 15 years, we found that 28% of the enrolled
the two groups with regard to the recurrence rate patients were not on lithium anymore after 5 years,
during a 1-year period. On the other hand, some in spite of adequate treatment surveillance. Among
epidemiological studies have reported that the fre- patients who had interrupted prophylaxis on their
quency of hospitalizations for mania has not de- own initiative, the most frequently alleged reasons
creased, but actually increased, in the years for discontinuation were perceived inefficacy, trou-
following the introduction of lithium (22, 23). All ble related to side effects, the conviction of being
these observations have led to the conclusion that cured and of needing no more drugs, the annoy-
the impact of lithium on the course of bipolar ance of taking medicines, and the loss of energy or
disorder in ordinary clinical conditions is less sig- productivity.
95
Maj

In that prospective study, among patients who personal relationships and occupational function-
were still on lithium after 5 years, 38% had had no ing (29), functional measures of outcome have
major depressive or manic episode during the usually been neglected in currently available
treatment period; 47% had had at least one lithium research.
episode, but with a reduction of at least 50% in the
mean annual time spent in hospital during the
Loss of prophylactic effect over time?
treatment period compared to the 2-year period
preceding the index episode and the start of pro- Overall, lithium does not seem to lose its prophy-
phylaxis; and 15% had had at least one episode lactic effect over time. In the 10-year follow-up of
without the above-mentioned reduction of at least our prospective study (30), conducted in 277 bipo-
50% in the mean annual time spent in hospital. lar I patients, we found that the mean number of
These findings support the clinical perception that affective episodes per year and the mean time spent
lithium, if taken regularly for several years, has a in hospital per year were not significantly different
substantial impact on the course of illness in most during the second versus the first 5-year observa-
bipolar patients. However, the bias of self-selection tion period. Similar data have been obtained in a
should not be overlooked: the figures just cited retrospective study by Berghöfer et al. (31). These
refer only to a subgroup of the enrolled patients findings do not support the idea, put forward by
(those who were still on lithium after 5 years),
Coryell et al. (7), that the prophylactic effect of
whose permanence on the prophylactic regimen
lithium does not persist after the first year of
may have been a consequence as well as a determi-
recovery from the index episode. On the other
nant of the favorable response, and who may not
be representative of the initial study group. As a hand, a recent re-analysis of Coryell et al.’s data
matter of fact, patients with psychotic features in (32) has shown that they do not necessarily contra-
the index episode (a possible predictor of poor dict the hypothesis of a sustained efficacy of
outcome in bipolar disorder) were significantly lithium.
over-represented among those who stopped lithium Some patients who had displayed an optimal
before the 5-year term, and only 23% of the whole response to lithium prophylaxis for several years
sample of bipolar patients who had started pro- may subsequently present multiple recurrences in a
phylaxis were still on completely successful lithium short period, in spite of persistently adequate com-
treatment after 5 years. pliance. This phenomenon, reported by several au-
In our study, we observed a significant reduction thors (8, 33–35) and confirmed by our 10-year
of the mean annual number of both manic and follow-up study (30), has been ascribed by Post et
depressive episodes and of the mean annual time al. (8) to the development of tolerance, but is more
spent in hospital for both manic and depressive convincingly explained by the increasing severity of
episodes, in comparison with the 2-year period bipolar illness over time (36, 37), finally over-
preceding the index episode and the start of pro- whelming the prophylactic activity of lithium (35,
phylaxis. However, on both measures, the reduc- 38). In fact, our patients with late recurrences,
tion was more significant for manic than for compared to those with a persistently favorable
depressive episodes. Similar data have recently response to prophylaxis, had a significantly higher
been reported by Tondo et al. (28), who found that number of pre-treatment episodes and hospitaliza-
the number of manic episodes was reduced 3.3-fold tions (38), which may reflect a more pronounced
and that of depressive episodes 2.1-fold during ‘driving force’ of the illness (8).
lithium treatment. These authors also reported a
more pronounced effect of treatment (significantly
greater reduction of the number of episodes per Predictors of response to prophylaxis
year and of the percentage of time ill) in bipolar II
Prediction of response to lithium prophylaxis in
compared with bipolar I patients, a finding that
bipolar disorder has been the subject of an exten-
requires confirmation.
Further research is also needed to address such sive literature (see (39) for a review). Among puta-
issues as the impact of long-term lithium treatment tive predictors of a favorable response are a family
on the severity and symptomatology of break- history of bipolar disorder (40–43) and a course of
through manic and depressive episodes, on the the mania–depression-free interval sequence type
interepisodic mood instability of bipolar patients, (44–48), whereas putative predictors of a poor
and on patients’ social adjustment and family bur- response are a previous higher frequency of
den. As a matter of fact, although it is documented episodes and hospitalizations (49, 50), rapid cy-
that bipolar disorder can significantly disrupt inter- cling (51, 52), and concomitant drug abuse (53).

96
Lithium prophylaxis of bipolar disorder

In our above-mentioned 5-year prospective (8)) have observed that some bipolar patients who
study (30), we found that a higher number of had a complete response to lithium prophylaxis for
pre-treatment episodes and hospitalizations and many years present a secondary refractoriness to
rapid cycling were associated with the least favor- prophylaxis after one or more treatment discontin-
able patterns of outcome of prophylaxis. However, uations. This refractoriness seems to be transient in
these variables are likely to be predictors of poor some of the cases (65). A recent study conducted in
outcome of bipolar disorder per se, independently a large sample of bipolar patients who had discon-
from treatment, rather than specific predictors of tinued lithium prophylaxis (66) has actually found
an unfavorable response to lithium. This applies at a statistically significant increase of affective mor-
the moment also to rapid cycling, in the absence of bidity during a second versus a first period of
double-blind randomized trials showing the superi- lithium treatment. This difference, however, failed
ority of other drugs over lithium in bipolar pa- to reach statistical significance in a smaller sample
tients presenting that pattern. studied by the same group (67), although also in
Of greater interest is the association between a this sample the use of additional medication was
longer duration of illness before the start of treat- found to be significantly more frequent during the
ment and a less favorable outcome of prophylaxis second lithium treatment period. In another inves-
(27, 28, 30), which seems to parallel the association tigation carried out in a very small patient sample
between earlier onset of antipsychotic treatment (68), the recurrence rate at 2 years was not signifi-
and better outcome in patients with schizophrenia cantly different during two subsequent periods of
(54). lithium prophylaxis, but the recurrence rate at 1
year was about 10% during the former period and
Consequences of lithium discontinuation about 30% during the latter. This difference, which
is not discussed in the paper but is likely to be
The abrupt discontinuation of lithium prophylaxis significant, seems to support the notion of a re-
has been found to be followed by a period of high versible discontinuation effect. Further long-term
risk of recurrences. According to a meta-analysis prospective studies of large patient samples are
of the relevant literature (55), a new episode occurs needed in order to clarify the frequency and clini-
within 5 months from lithium withdrawal in 50% cal relevance of the phenomenon.
of patients; the risk for a manic recurrence is
significantly higher than that for a depressive one
Antisuicidal effect
(the computed time to 25% risk of recurrence is 2.7
months for mania and 14 months for depression); Lithium prophylaxis has been found to be associ-
and the risk of recurrence after lithium withdrawal ated with a marked decrease of suicide risk in
is significantly higher than that of bipolar patients bipolar patients, and lithium discontinuation to be
never treated with lithium (in 16 bipolar patients, accompanied by a pronounced increase of that
the shortest interepisodic euthymic period before risk. Baldessarini et al. (69) have reported that
starting lithium prophylaxis was 11.6 months, suicidal acts per year were reduced 6.5-fold during
whereas the mean euthymic period between lithium lithium treatment, and that suicide risk increased
withdrawal and a new affective episode was 1.7 20-fold in the first year off lithium, being 2-fold
months). A more recent study (56) has found that lower after slow versus rapid discontinuation. This
the recurrence risk is significantly lower if lithium evidence does not prove conclusively that lithium
is discontinued gradually: the median time to re- exerts an antisuicidal effect (70), because both im-
currence was 2.5 months for rapid discontinuation plementation and discontinuation of lithium pro-
(over 1–14 days) versus 14 months for gradual phylaxis in bipolar patients do not occur at
discontinuation (over 15 – 30 days). Schou (57) has random (for instance, alcohol and drug abuse may
recently emphasized the discrepancy between these be associated with a higher risk of suicide and at
findings, obtained in patients diagnosed according the same time with a lower probability to remain
to the most recent editions of the DSM, and the on long-term lithium treatment). However, it is
report of no evidence of withdrawal rebound by remarkable that, in a large multicenter randomized
several groups (31, 58 – 61) using the ICD criteria, open trial (71) comparing lithium with carba-
and has submitted the idea that the rebound phe- mazepine or amitriptyline in the prophylaxis of
nomenon does not occur in typical manic – depres- bipolar and unipolar depressive disorder, respec-
sive illness. This hypothesis, however, requires tively, there were four completed suicides in pa-
empirical testing. tients receiving carbamazepine, five in those
Several clinicians (35, 62 – 65) (F. K. Goodwin treated with amitriptyline, and none in those re-
and J. Angst, personal communication, cited in ceiving lithium, and the frequency of suicidal acts
97
Maj

was significantly lower in lithium-treated patients year double-blind placebo-controlled trial (81) sug-
than in the other two patient groups (72). gest a significant superiority of the drug over
placebo in increasing the time in remission, and
several open trials indicate that the drug may re-
Alternatives to lithium and combination treatments
duce the frequency and severity of affective
At present, there is only one double-blind placebo- episodes, also in rapid cyclers (82, 83). In a ran-
controlled trial of carbamazepine in the prevention domized trial in which 12 bipolar patients received
of recurrences of bipolar disorder (73), which either valproate or placebo in association with
found a 1-year recurrence rate of 40% in patients lithium, those treated with lithium and valproate
treated with the drug and of 78% in those receiving were significantly less likely to suffer a recurrence
placebo (a non-significant difference). Moreover, (84).
there are several double-blind trials of carba- No placebo-controlled trial is available of the
mazepine versus lithium (74 – 77), whose interpreta- prophylactic effect of other anticonvulsants and of
tion is made difficult by the heterogeneity of the atypical antipsychotics in bipolar disorder, al-
enrolled patients (only one of them included exclu- though many promising open trials have been pub-
sively bipolar patients) and the peculiarity of the lished (see (85) for a review).
designs (one of them was a discontinuation trial,
while in another the length of the observation
Conclusions
period in some patients was less than 6 months).
Of these studies, three found carbamazepine to be The current emphasis on the limitations of the
as effective as lithium, while one (75) found lithium research evidence concerning the impact of lithium
to be significantly superior in increasing the time in prophylaxis on the course of bipolar disorder
remission. should not divert our attention from the fact that
The above-mentioned multicenter randomized lithium is the only drug for which such substantial
open trial (71), comparing carbamazepine and evidence is currently available, and remains, there-
lithium in 144 bipolar patients, found a non-signifi- fore, the first-choice medication in the long-term
cant superiority of lithium in terms of recurrence prophylactic treatment of bipolar patients.
rate during the 2.5-year observation period (28 vs. The impact of lithium prophylaxis is likely to be
47%). However, the difference in favor of lithium less significant on the atypical and comorbid cases
became significant when, in addition to recur- of bipolar disorder, increasingly seen in clinical
rences, the need for neuroleptics and/or antidepres- practice, than it is on typical cases of manic–de-
sants for at least 6 months was considered as pressive illness, but the superiority of other medi-
failure. cations over lithium in the long-term treatment of
It has been maintained that bipolar patients who those atypical or comorbid cases is at present not
respond to carbamazepine prophylaxis, compared convincingly proved by research. This applies also
with those responding to lithium, are more fre- to rapidly cycling bipolar disorder, in the absence
quently rapid cyclers (78). However, a retrospec- of double-blind randomized trials documenting a
tive study conducted in 215 bipolar patients treated significantly greater effect of other drugs compared
with lithium or carbamazepine for 2 years (79) with lithium on the recurrence rate in rapid cyclers.
found that rapid cycling predicts a poor response Currently available research evidence does not
to both drugs. support the idea that lithium exerts its prophylactic
The combination of lithium and carbamazepine activity on relapses but not on recurrences of bipo-
may be useful in some bipolar patients who do not lar disorder, or that tolerance to lithium develops
respond satisfactorily to either drug. In a double- over time.
blind crossover study, Denicoff et al. (80) found Clinicians should be aware of the fact that the
that the total number of recurrences was signifi- drop-out rate in bipolar patients receiving long-
cantly lower in the period in which patients were term lithium treatment is substantial even if treat-
on the combination compared with the lithium and ment surveillance is accurate, and that complete
carbamazepine phases. The mean survival time to suppression of recurrences is a relatively rare out-
the first manic episode was 179.3 days on the come of prophylaxis. The addition of one or more
combination, 89.8 days on lithium alone, and 66.2 other mood stabilizers is likely to improve the
days on carbamazepine alone (a statistically signifi- outcome of several bipolar patients who have dis-
cant difference). played an unsatisfactory response to lithium pro-
No controlled trial of valproate in the preven- phylaxis, but further research is needed in order to
tion of recurrences of bipolar disorder has been clarify in how many and in which patients this
published as yet. The preliminary results of a 1- combination treatment is required.
98
Lithium prophylaxis of bipolar disorder

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