Technological Forecasting & Social Change 124 (2017) 114–125

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Technological Forecasting & Social Change

Designing backcasting scenarios for resilient energy futures

Yusuke Kishita a,b,⁎, Benjamin C. McLellan c, Damien Giurco d, Kazumasu Aoki e,
Go Yoshizawa f, Itsuki C. Handoh g,h
a
The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1138656, Japan
b
Center for Environmental Innovation Design for Sustainability, Osaka University, 2-1, Yamada-oka, Suita, Osaka 5650871, Japan
c
Graduate School of Energy Science, Kyoto University, Yoshida-Honmachi, Sakyo-Ku, Kyoto 6068501, Japan
d
Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, 235, Jones Street, Ultimo, New South Wales 2007, Australia
e
Department of Business Law, Faculty of Economics, University of Toyama, 3190, Gofuku, Toyama, Toyama 9308555, Japan
f
Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka University, 2-2, Yamada-oka, Suita, Osaka 5650871, Japan
g
Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, 457-4, Motoyama, Kamigamo, Kita-Ku, Kyoto, 6038047, Japan
h
College of Creative Studies, Niigata University, 8050 Ikarashi 2-no-cho, Nishi-Ku, Niigata, 9502181, Japan

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The concept of resilience is a crucial part in crafting visions of desirable futures designed to withstand the widest
Received 25 March 2016 variety of external shocks to the system. Backcasting scenarios are widely used to envision desirable futures with
Received in revised form 30 January 2017 a discontinuous change from the present in mind. However, less effort has been devoted to developing theoret-
Accepted 2 February 2017
ical frameworks and methods for building backcasting scenarios with a particular focus on resilience, although
Available online 9 February 2017
resilience has been explored in related sustainability fields. This paper proposes a method that helps design
Keywords:
backcasting scenarios for resilient futures. A characteristic of the method is to delineate “collapse” futures,
Scenario design based upon which resilient futures are described to avoid the various collapsed states. In the process of designing
Backcasting backcasting scenarios, fault tree analysis (FTA) is used to support the generation of various risk factors and coun-
Resilient future termeasures to improve resilience. In order to test the effectiveness of the proposed method, we provide a case
Fault tree analysis study to describe resilient energy systems for a Japanese community to 2030. Four expert workshops involving
Energy system researchers from different disciplines were organized to generate diversified ideas on resilient energy systems.
Expert workshop The results show that three scenarios of collapsed energy systems were described, in which policy options to
be taken toward achieving resilient energy systems were derived.
© 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction In order to envision desirable energy futures (e.g., sustainable fu-

The current market-based society tends to maximize economic effi-
ciency, but this may lead to undermining the resilience of the system
with regard to a variety of sub-system shocks (Lietaer et al., 2010). As
is often discussed in the context of climate change, it is crucial to consid-
er the concept of resilience in designing systems and infrastructure with
the goal of withstanding various external shocks that might occur in the
future (United Nations, 2016). The primary focus of this paper is on en-
ergy systems as a typical example of real-world complex systems. In
Japan, in response to the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident in
the aftermath of the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, the resilience
of energy systems has been discussed with a particular focus on climate
change and energy security (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry,
Japan (METI), 2014).
⁎ Corresponding author at: The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo
1138656, Japan.
E-mail address: kishita@pe.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp (Y. Kishita).
tures and resilient futures) on both national and community scales, a
number of scenarios have been developed (e.g., Ashina et al., 2012;
Gößling-Reisemann et al., 2013; International Energy Agency (IEA),
2012; Mander et al., 2008; Pidgeon et al., 2014; Svenfelt et al., 2011;
Upham et al., 2016). Scenarios here refer to narrative stories describing
futures, drawing upon which effective policies and actions should be
discussed (Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre, 2009; Glenn, the
Futures Group International, 2003). While most of the existing energy
scenarios are aimed at achieving environmental and economic sustain-
ability, the concept of resilience has yet to be incorporated into visions
of desirable energy futures. Resilient energy futures must provide and
maintain sufficient services to customers in the case where external
shocks (e.g., natural disasters, human error, and political instability)
bring about the failure of the energy system (Chaudry et al., 2009;
Kharrazi et al., 2015).
From a methodological viewpoint, however, relatively little knowl-
edge has been provided to answer the question of how to design scenar-
ios for envisioning resilient futures in a systematic manner. In order to
address this question, a backcasting approach is suitable, since resilience

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.02.001
0040-1625/© 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
 Y. Kishita et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 124 (2017) 114–125
is normative and appears to entail drastic and discontinuous changes
from the present (Dreborg, 1996; Quist, 2007; Robèrt et al., 2002). The
idea of backcasting is to delineate future visions and draw pathways
backward from those visions to the present (Dreborg, 1996; Robinson,
1990). If desirable futures are sought, backcasting scenarios facilitate
the exploration of technology and policy options that should be taken
to reach those futures (Kishita et al., 2016). Although a number of
scholars have developed methods and tools for building backcasting
scenarios (see Section 2.3 for details), scenario practices are, in general,
still undertheorized (Upham et al., 2016; Wilkinson, 2009). In particu-
lar, this is the case when designing backcasting scenarios for resilient fu-
tures. Therefore, the research question to be tackled in this paper is how
to systematically design backcasting scenarios for resilient futures in a
workshop environment, often engaging both researchers and stake-
holders. The purpose of collaboration between multiple actors (e.g., re-
searchers from different disciplines, policy-makers, and citizens) is to
foster mutual learning and co-production of knowledge and values to-
ward crafting shared future visions (Lang et al., 2012; Swart et al., 2004).
This paper aims at developing a method to design backcasting sce-
narios for envisioning resilient futures, which involve visions and path-
ways of resilient energy systems. It should be noted that, although the
primary focus of this paper is on energy systems, we aim to propose a
generalized method that is applicable to any kind of system. In general,
scenario design is composed of a series of activities, such as idea gener-
ation, idea integration, data gathering, simulations, and appraisal and,
moreover, these activities are iterative in order to complete the scenar-
ios (Börjeson et al., 2006; Kishita et al., 2016). For systematic thinking
on resilient futures, we define the scenario design process as consisting
of two phases; i.e., the first phase is to describe collapse futures due to
external shocks and the second phase is to describe resilient futures
that avoid or mitigate the collapse states assumed in the first phase. In
order to help generate a wide array of ideas for describing plural scenar-
ios, we use fault tree analysis (FTA) (Stamatelatos et al., 2002), thereby
enabling the explicit representation of both external shocks to the sys-
tem of concern and countermeasures to enhance resilience. By drawing
on the proposed method, we present the case study of a Japanese com-
munity, Suita City, Osaka, Japan with the timeline of 2030. A total of four
workshops were organized, where experts from different disciplines
were invited, in order to gather as much knowledge and information
as possible to put together scenarios.
The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 discusses re-
silience and the design of resilient energy systems and gives a review of
backcasting scenario methods. Section 3 develops a method for design-
ing backcasting scenarios for resilient futures. Section 4 shows a case
study of resilient energy systems of a Japanese community. Based on
the case study results, Section 5 discusses the effectiveness of the pro-
posed method and policy implications for resilient energy systems. Fi-
nally, Section 6 concludes the paper.
2. Backcasting approach to designing resilient energy futures
2.1. Requisites for designing resilient energy systems
The concept of resilience originates from ecology for understanding
the dynamics of ecological systems (Holling, 1973). Resilience is defined
as the capacity of a system to absorb external shocks and reorganize
while undergoing change in order to retain essentially the same func-
tion (Folke, 2006; Liu et al., 2007; Walker et al., 2004). Differentiated
from sustainability, the emphasis of resilience is on how the system re-
sponds to disturbance or non-linear dynamics (Folke, 2006).
Since the 1982 book “Brittle Power” by Lovins and Lovins (1982),
discussions on resilience have been deployed to the design of energy
systems in relevant literature (e.g., Afgan, 2010; Chaudry et al., 2009;
Hirose, 2013; O'Brien and Hope, 2010). Although there are no universal
definitions of the term energy system, an energy system in this paper
refers to a system that comprises energy supply infrastructures,
115
human activities, and ecological systems (see Fig. 1). Given the defini-
tion of resilience, the focus is on the interaction between the energy sys-
tem and external factors, such as technological developments, lifestyles,
energy policies, economic situations, and natural disasters. A resilient
energy system has the capacity to speedily recover from external shocks
and to provide alternative means of maintaining an acceptable level of
services to consumers in the event of external disturbances (Afgan
and Veziroglu, 2012; Chaudry et al., 2009). The essential characteristic
is not the continuation of energy supply for its own sake, but maintain-
ing quality and quantity of services for human activities.
Lovins and Lovins (1982) advocated the importance of ensuring the
resilience of energy supply because energy supply infrastructures have
vulnerability to large-scale failures caused by unpredictable disruptions,
such as natural disaster, technical failure, and malice. In the end, Lovins
and Lovins (1982) suggested diverse, dispersed, inter-compatible, and
redundant energy sources. However, visions of resilient energy systems
are still blurred and have not yet been investigated by looking at all the
elements in Fig. 1. Difficulties in designing resilient energy systems stem
from the following two problems. One is that visions of resilient energy
systems vary critically between stakeholders, targeted regions, and time
frame of interest — the issue of competing temporalities is discussed for
the case of resilience in cities by Moffatt (2014). The other is that the in-
teraction between the energy system and various external factors is
complex and not necessarily explicitly represented, thereby making it
difficult to understand such interaction among stakeholders involved
in a systematic manner. Therefore, these problems should be addressed
to derive profound knowledge toward resilient energy futures by taking
into account, at least, environmental-friendliness, energy security, and
economic performance.
2.2. Lessons from beyond energy systems
In the field of water, backcasting (discussed in Section 2.3) has been
effectively coupled with adaptive management for sustainable ground-
water use (Gleeson et al., 2012) and climate adaptation in a coastal
region (van der Voorn et al., 2012). Van der Voorn et al. (2012) pro-
posed a methodology for linking adaptive management to backcasting
in a way that integrates actions across local, provincial, and nation
levels. The structured approach to identifying links between specific ac-
tions at specific levels has similarities to the Fault Tree Analysis used
later in this paper. The difference is that, whereas van der Voorn et al.
(2012) proposed linked actions to achieve a vision, our current paper
explores the cause–effect chains in a stepwise manner to delineate fu-
tures that might be resilient or fragile (collapse futures).
Although adaptive management and resilience are not synonymous,
the process of adaptive management has been associated with building
resilience (Olsson et al., 2004) and underscores the importance of ex-
plicitly connecting backcasting scenarios and resilient futures. There
are many discourses in the context of socio-ecological resilience
(Moore et al., 2014; Smith and Stirling, 2010). In particular, a number
of studies addressed adaptive management focused on climate change
(Bollinger et al., 2014; Park et al., 2012; Reed et al., 2013).
2.3. Related work on backcasting scenarios
In the context of energy policy design, a number of backcasting sce-
narios have been studied (e.g., Ashina et al., 2012; Giurco et al., 2011;
Robinson, 1982; Svenfelt et al., 2011). Backcasting is often used to con-
sider a drastic change from the present, partly because desirable energy
futures must satisfy long-term goals of CO2 reduction (e.g., 25% reduc-
tion to 2030) and the lifespan of energy infrastructures is relatively lon-
ger (e.g., 40 to 50 years). Many researchers have proposed methods for
developing backcasting scenarios (e.g., Banister et al., 2000;
Carlsson-Kanyama et al., 2008; Mander et al., 2008; Mizuno et al.,
2012; Quist and Vergragt, 2006; Robinson, 1990; Svenfelt et al., 2011).
One of the most famous methods is Robinson's method (Robinson,
116 Y. Kishita et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 124 (2017) 114–125
Fig. 1. Energy system as considered in this paper.
1990), which defined the backcasting scenario development process in
six steps — (1) determining the purpose of scenario development, (2)
specifying goals, constraints, and targets, (3) describing the present sys-
tem, (4) specifying exogenous variables of the backcasting, (5) under-
taking scenario analysis (including developing scenarios), and (6)
undertaking impact analysis. Based on the Robinson's method, some re-
searchers have proposed variant processes (e.g., Tuominen et al., 2014).
In the field of sustainability science, a participatory approach is often
applied to backcasting scenario design since democratic decision-mak-
ing is highly important in current policy design (Carlsson-Kanyama et
al., 2008; Giurco et al., 2011; Kasemir et al., 2003; Kates et al., 2001;
Komiyama and Takeuchi, 2006; Robinson et al., 2011; Swart et al.,
2004). For example, Zimmermann et al. (2012) proposed a participatory
backcasting approach by integrating a Delphi survey and semi-struc-
tured interviews. The value of taking a participatory approach in scenar-
io design includes promoting mutual understanding and co-producing
new knowledge between researchers and stakeholders in order to
solve real-world problems in society (Kasemir et al., 2003; Lang et al.,
2012). Therefore, a participatory process is widely used for envisioning
desirable futures (McKee et al., 2015; Wiek and Iwaniec, 2014). In the
participatory scenario design process, a variety of expertise provided
by researchers of different disciplines and diversified views and local
knowledge provided by stakeholders are reflected in scenarios. In this
regard, the activities of scenario design are regarded as a learning
machine to communicate knowledge, ideas, and opinions between re-
searchers and stakeholders (Berkhout et al., 2002). As reviewed in pre-
vious work (Kishita et al., 2016), a wide variety of methods and tools are
used to engage experts and stakeholders in the scenario design process,
such as interviews and workshops (e.g., Pidgeon et al., 2014), Delphi
method (e.g., Tuominen et al., 2014), multi-criteria assessment (e.g.,
Mander et al., 2008), and causal layered analysis (e.g., Lederwasch et
al., 2011).
2.4. Research questions
When a participatory approach is used in designing scenarios, there
are two problems to be overcome in answering the research question
mentioned in Section 1. These are described below.
(i) The process of designing backcasting scenarios for resilient fu-
tures has not yet been formalized. Some researchers suggested
that backcasting scenarios can be used to analyze how undesir-
able changes can be avoided or responded to (e.g., Quist, 2007;
Robinson, 1990). As a relevant method, Wright and Goodwin
(2009) touched upon the idea of using fault trees to work back-
ward from objectives. However, the potential of backcasting sce-
nario design in the context of resilience has not been examined
enough using case studies.
(ii) Different forms of knowledge are provided in the process of de-
signing scenarios (Robinson et al., 2016). This leads to difficulties
in achieving a common understanding among participants in-
volved as well as in ensuring internal consistency within scenar-
ios (Kishita et al., 2016).
3. Methodology for designing backcasting scenarios for envisioning
resilient futures
3.1. Approach
In order to address the two problems (i) and (ii), we formalize the
process for designing backcasting scenarios for envisioning resilient fu-
tures. One characteristic of this formalization is to define the entire pro-
cess in two phases. The first phase, corresponding to Step (2) in Fig. 2,
aims at delineating collapse future visions and pathways caused by ex-
ternal factors because the idea of resilience inherently encompasses the
occurrence of and the recovery from the undesirable states, collapse, or
failure of a system. In other words, it is inevitable to assume collapse fu-
tures when requisites for resilient futures are sought. Then, the second
phase, corresponding to Steps (3) and (4) in Fig. 2, aims at delineating
resilient future visions and pathways by assuming countermeasures
against the collapse futures to improve the resilience of the system.
Note that there should be several pathways to connect one single vision
and the present. In addition, resilient future visions are not necessarily
able to reach the present (see Fig. 2).
We assume that the scenario design is undertaken using workshops,
where a scenario design team and various types of participants (e.g., ex-
perts, policy-makers, and citizens) work together to share and provide
various kinds of information. As a way of explicit representation of
knowledge for facilitating communication among participants, we use
fault tree analysis (FTA) in order to support backward thinking in idea
generation through the scenario design process, ranging from collapse
futures to resilient futures.
FTA is a method often used in mechanical system design. It is a de-
ductive and failure-based approach, which starts with an undesired
event, followed by determining its causes using a backward-stepping
 Y. Kishita et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 124 (2017) 114–125 117

Fig. 2. Concept of backcasting scenario design for resilient futures. The numbers correspond to the steps in the scenario design process (see Fig. 4).

process (Stamatelatos et al., 2002). As a result, FTA clarifies the cause–
effect relationship between the undesired event and its causal events
(Stamatelatos et al., 2002). Therefore, the process of conducting FTA is
useful for clarifying potential external shocks to the system, although
the context may be more complex.
Fig. 3 shows how FTA is applied to the design of backcasting scenar-
ios for resilient futures. We define three types of scenario elements (i.e.,
goal, risk factor, and countermeasure) within the framework of FTA.
Goals are the collapse states of the system of concern. Risk factors are
factors that may result in the goals (i.e., collapse states). Countermea-
sures here include policies and other actions that avoid, mitigate, or
adapt risk factors for improving the resilience of the system. As with
the classic FTA (Stamatelatos et al., 2002), the participants construct a
fault tree in a top-down manner, that is, starting with generating goals
after which risk factors and countermeasures are generated. Note that
the process of generating the three types of scenario elements is
iterative.
The resulting fault tree is used for determining the scenario struc-
ture. Because the fault tree expresses the cause–effect chain between
goals, risk factors, and countermeasures, a sub-tree beneath each sub-
goal corresponds to a sub-scenario, which represents a consistent
story to reach a particular collapse state caused by risk factors. In the
end, plural sub-scenarios are deployed based on the fault tree.
3.2. Scenario design process
Previous research (Mizuno et al., 2012) has presented the general-
ized process for designing backcasting scenarios, to which the
Robinson's work (Robinson, 1990) was applied. By extending this pro-
cess in a way that integrates the concept shown in Fig. 2 and the FTA
in Fig. 3, we define the scenario design processes in four steps (see
Fig. 4). In each step, we incorporate the concept of scenario design cy-
cles (i.e., idea generation, idea integration, and evaluation and revision)
presented in Kishita et al. (2016). Details of each step are described
below.
• Step (1) Preparation: The scenario design team clarifies the problem
to be addressed, that is, the purpose of the scenario design (e.g., de-
signing resilient energy system), temporal and spatial boundary
(e.g., in a Japanese community to 2030), and constraints to be consid-
ered (e.g., long-term goal in CO2 reduction). In order to solve the prob-
lem, the scenario design team recruits participants involved in
workshops, and explains the scenario design process to the partici-
pants. Before starting discussions in workshops, both the scenario de-
sign team and the participants understand the present state of the
system, which helps to encourage generating ideas regarding poten-
tial collapse states, risk factors, and countermeasures. Note that,

Fig. 3. Schematic of the fault tree generating a scenario structure.

118 Y. Kishita et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 124 (2017) 114–125
Fig. 4. Scenario design process for resilient futures.
nevertheless, the participants are requested to generate many diversi-
fied ideas, which are not necessarily feasible in the present system.
• Step (2) Describing collapse futures: The participants generate goals
and risk factors using a fault tree, based upon which the scenario de-
sign team determines a scenario structure (i.e., number of sub-scenar-
ios). In each sub-scenario, the scenario design team describes the
narrative story of collapse futures by deploying the fault tree. Then,
the participants review the scenario structure and the narrative
story of sub-scenarios and modify them where necessary.
• Step (3) Describing resilient futures: Using the fault tree constructed
in Step (2), the participants generate countermeasures to overcome
the risk factors and enhance the resilience of the system. Based on
the revised fault tree, the scenario design team describes the narrative
story of resilient visions by adding descriptions to the sub-scenarios
created in Step (2). As with Step (2), the participants review and mod-
ify the described scenarios.
• Step (4) Describing pathways to the resilient visions: The participants
prioritize the countermeasures generated in Step (3) and place them
on time axis to discuss when each countermeasure should be taken.
Based on these results, the scenario design team describes the narra-
tive story of pathways to connect the resilient future visions and the
present. Finally, the participants review and modify the entire de-
scribed scenarios.
Note that Steps (2)–(4) are iterative based on reviews and revisions
of scenarios by the scenario design team and the participants.
4. Case study: scenarios of collapsed and resilient energy systems of a
Japanese community
This section presents a case study in order to test the effectiveness of
the proposed method. The outcome shown in this case study was
obtained primarily from an interdisciplinary research project (2012–
2013), where researchers from several research institutes (e.g., Osaka
University, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Kyoto
University, the University of Toyama, the University of Tokyo, and Uni-
versity of Technology Sydney) were involved. The goal of the project
was to envision resilient energy futures in Japan after the Fukushima
nuclear power plant accident in 2011.
As depicted in Fig. 4, the scenario design team organized four work-
shops involving experts from several academic disciplines (including
engineering, political science, public policy, global system science, and
hydrology). Because the primary focus was on a methodological devel-
opment rather than bringing about social changes in the real world per
se, we organized expert workshops while other stakeholders were not
explicitly involved. The overview of the four workshops is summarized
in Table A1. In the workshops, the participants provided various knowl-
edge and ideas of collapsed and resilient energy systems. Based on these
results, the scenario design team was responsible for drafting and
updating scenarios in the form of fault trees and narrative storylines.
Below are the results of undertaking Steps (1)–(4) in Fig. 4 in the case
study.
4.1. Preparation
The purpose of this scenario design project was defined as
envisioning resilient energy systems in Suita City, Osaka, Japan. Here,
Suita City was chosen as a typical example of cities that are required
to think of a next energy system. The city started to develop most social
infrastructure (e.g., wastewater treatment plant and incineration plant)
in 1960s in response to a population increase. Therefore, some of it has
become decayed and now is the time for update or replacement. Al-
though the city's energy system is critically affected by national energy
policies (e.g., nuclear energy policy), the project attempted to explore
effective policies that can be taken by the municipal government and ef-
fective actions by local actors in the community, such as industry and
citizens. The time frame of concern was set as the period from 2012 to
2030.
To share with the participants in the workshops, the scenario design
team provided a brief summary of the characteristic of Suita City as
shown in Table 1. The population of the city in 2012 was 360,718 and
 Y. Kishita et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 124 (2017) 114–125
the area is 36.11 km2. Key constraints to be considered in the project in-
cluded demographic changes (i.e., aging society to 2030), a long-term
goal of CO2 reduction, and energy supply potential from renewable
sources. First, Suita City is projected to be faced with aging and the num-
ber of citizens at age of 65 or more will account for 28% in 2030, in-
creased from 19% in 2008 (Suita City, 2013). Second, the city has a
medium-term environmental goal toward a low-carbon society, with
the reduction of CO2 emissions within the city by 12%, i.e., from
1,499,000 tCO2 in 2010 to 1,315,000 tCO2 in 2020 (Suita City, 2012). Fi-
nally, the city has some potential energy supply from solar and waste
biomass, while other renewable sources (e.g., wind and hydro) are
less available (Suita City, 2010).
4.2. Describing collapse futures (Workshops 1 and 2)
In Workshops 1 and 2, the participants worked primarily on the fault
tree in order to generate collapse states and their risk factors. By placing
“Collapsed energy system of Suita City” as the top node (see Fig. 5), the
fault tree was generated in a way that covers a full range of collapse
states that might happen in the city. In the process of developing the
fault tree, the participants attempted to seek many possible collapse
states, such as economic crisis, natural disasters caused by climate
change, and crisis in citizens' everyday lives. Based on discussions in-
volving both the scenario design team and the participants, three critical
collapse states were identified, i.e., (A) city's financial crisis, (B) confu-
sion of citizens' daily lives, and (C) deterioration of the ecological sys-
tem. The consensus among the participants was gradually achieved
Table 1
Characteristics of Suita City (Suita City, 2010; Suita City, 2013).
Category Descriptions
Demographics Population is 360,718 (2012). Population will be stable from 2012
to 2030, while people of age 65 or more will account for 28% in
2030, increasing from 19% in 2008.
Area 36.11 km2 (population density: 9990/km2).
Land use Urban area: 63%, green space & school: 21%, railway & roads: 8%,
others: 8%.
Transportation The railway network is well-developed; i.e., there are 14 stations
within the city. In addition, the bus network is also available to
connect railway stations.
Industry There are several factories, such as a beer brewery and
pharmaceutical plants. Small-sized companies with less than 10
employees account for 70% (7496) of all (10,675) companies in
2006. Most employees (88%) are working in service industry.
Research The city has five universities (i.e., Kansai University, Osaka Gakuin
institute University, Osaka University, Senri Kinran University, and Yamato
University) and National Museum of Ethnology.
Medical Advanced medical services are provided by several hospitals,
service such as Osaka University Medical Hospital.
Energy As of 2007, the total energy consumption was 21,975 TJ, which
demand was composed of four sectors, i.e., the commercial sector
(7533 TJ, 34%), the residential sector (5639 TJ, 26%), the transport
sector (5058 TJ, 23%), and the industrial sector (3745 TJ, 17%). In
the residential sector, the energy consumption per head was
steadily increasing. In the commercial sector, the energy
consumption was increasing, in which the most influential
consumers included universities and hospitals. In the industrial
sector, the energy consumption was declining partly because
energy-saving measures were implemented. Finally, in the
transport sector, the energy consumption was also declining, in
which a major part (66%) of the consumption came from
passenger automobiles owned by households.
Energy supply As of 2007, the energy sources in the residential sector were from
electricity (55%), natural gas supplied by pipeline (42%), and
kerosene (3%). The basic trend was shifting toward electrification.
Kerosene is used primarily for space heating.
Although the current energy supply system is dominated by fossil
fuels, there is some potential of renewable energy (i.e., the
maximum amount of extractable energy based on a theoretical
calculation) within the city, that is, 2092 TJ for photovoltaics and
solar heating and 969 TJ for solid waste. In contrast, there is less
potential for wind power due to a space limitation in the city.
119
through the clarification of the cause–effect relationship described in
the fault tree. Likewise, the arrows connecting the nodes in Fig. 5 were
validated based on discussions between the participants and scenario
design team. Then, the scenario design team described the narrative
storylines of collapsed energy systems for three scenarios (A)–(C),
each of which assumed a different type of collapse state as follows
(see Table 2).
In Scenario (A), the city's financial crisis happens because the tax in-
come from industry and households decreases (Node (a) in Fig. 5) as a
result of higher electricity prices (Node (b)). The local economy declines
as the city's unemployment rate increases (Node (c)) and the house-
holds' income decreases. In Scenario (B), citizens' everyday lives are
confused because large-scale blackouts occur (Node (d)). This scenario
is caused by the malfunction of energy infrastructures or the liberaliza-
tion of the electricity market (Node (e)). One critical influence due to
the stoppage of electricity supply is the proliferation of heat stroke for
elderly people in summer (Node (f)) because a rise in the temperature
of the city is observed by the heat island phenomena while the city is
aging. In Scenario (C), the ecological system is severely damaged by en-
vironmental impact as the result of energy usage, such as climate
change, air pollution, and loss of biodiversity. Public health is spoiled
by air pollution, which is caused by fossil fuel usage over time (Node
(g)). Another situation is radioactive pollution from nuclear power
plants (Node (h)), caused by extreme weather, natural disasters, or ter-
ror attacks.
4.3. Describing resilient futures (Workshops 2 and 3)
In Workshops 2 and 3, the participants reviewed and modified the
fault tree, after which they added a number of countermeasures.
Based on the updated fault tree, the scenario design team described
the narrative storylines of resilient energy systems for three scenarios
(A)–(C) (see Table 2).
In Scenario (A), in order to decrease electricity prices against in-
creasing fossil fuel costs, the city promotes the diffusion of renewable
energy (e.g., rooftop photovoltaics and urban biomass) (Node (i)).
Moreover, the liberalization of the electricity market (Node (e)) is one
of effective measures to decrease electricity prices. As a countermeasure
for improving the unemployment rate, the city takes a policy to create
new jobs in research and development (R&D) focusing on renewable
energy based on the collaboration between local industry and the five
universities located in the city (Node (j)). In Scenario (B), in case of a
large-scale blackout, standalone power generators (e.g., fuel cells and
battery storages) are installed in hospitals, industry, offices, and house-
holds (Node (k)). In addition, the city enacts the laws to transfer elec-
tricity within the city (e.g., from industry to households) (Node (l)).
Two key countermeasures to avoid blackouts are the introduction of
more renewable energy and the promotion of energy-savings (Node
(m)). Sustainability education at elementary and junior high schools is
also important for lifestyle changes toward an energy-saving society
(Node (n)). In Scenario (C), in order to mitigate air pollution and climate
change, the city promotes energy-savings to reduce the usage of fossil
fuels by taking similar countermeasures described in Scenario (B)
(Node (m)). For example, the city transforms the transportation system
to foster the usage of public transportation instead of passenger auto-
mobiles (Node (p)).
4.4. Describing transitions to the resilient visions (Workshop 4)
In Workshop 4, based on interactive discussions, the participants
came up with key policy options to be taken by the city in order to real-
ize pathways to resilient energy systems described in Scenarios (A)–(C).
In the workshop, each participant was asked to choose the five most im-
portant options upon their own judgement, and place them on time
axis. Here, the scenario design team did not provide the participants
with any criteria to assess the importance; instead, the participants
120 Y. Kishita et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 124 (2017) 114–125
Fig. 5. Overall structure of the generated fault tree for Suita City.
were encouraged to present diversified policy options through uncon-
strained discussions. By aggregating suggestions by the participants,
the scenario design team created a policy roadmap shown in Fig. 6.
The suggested key policy options are classified into three categories,
i.e., short-term, mid-term, and long-term (see Table 2).
First, taking into account viability, short-term policy options includ-
ed planting more trees to tackle the heat island phenomena and pro-
moting energy-savings by introducing more energy-efficient products
and technologies. As an adaptive measure against a large-scale blackout,
the city legislates the scheme to transfer electricity from one sector to
another (e.g., from industry to households). Second, mid-term options
included implementing new energy recovery systems in incineration
plants and waste water treatment plants because these social infra-
structures are deteriorating and need to be renovated in an upcoming
decade or so. Moreover, the city promotes the installation of standalone
power generators and battery storages because the installation costs
will become cheaper and economically acceptable in the future. Finally,
in order to create macroscopic social changes over time, the city takes
several long-term options. Such options included implementing sus-
tainability education for lifestyle changes, transforming the transporta-
tion system to public transportation, and establishing a renewables-
related research and development (R&D) center for creating new jobs
and rejuvenating the local economy.
5. Discussion
In this section, we discuss implications and lessons learned from the
case study in terms of both methodology and scenario contents.
5.1. Advantages and challenges of the proposed method
As shown in the case study, the proposed method enabled the design
of backcasting scenarios for resilient energy systems for Suita City,
Osaka, Japan. Below, we discuss advantages and challenges of the meth-
od based on the case study results.
5.1.1. Advantages
When compared with prior research on backcasting, there are two
advantages that partially solved the two problems (i) and (ii) in
Section 2.4 as follows.
First, related to problem (i), one characteristic of the method was to
formalize the scenario design process in four steps as shown in Fig. 4, in-
cluding the generation of collapse futures and resilient futures. In the
case study, we confirmed that the method is workable for resilient ener-
gy systems using expert workshop. Nevertheless, the four-step process
would be applicable to any kind of system. In the case study, the step-
wise process of generating collapsed energy systems and resilient ener-
gy systems was useful for brainstorming diversified ideas as described
in Fig. 5. In the process of describing collapsed energy systems, it is im-
portant to generate a wide variety of ideas, including unrealistic ones, in
order to broaden the opportunity for gaining new insights into resilient
energy systems. For example, Suita City appears not to go bankrupt in a
next few decades because the city is currently a relatively wealthy mu-
nicipality. However, by assuming the unrealistic collapse state in Sce-
nario (A) (i.e., the city's financial crisis), the participants eventually
came up with a new idea of job creation through renewables-related
R&D (Node (j) in Fig. 5).
Second, another characteristic of the method was to combine the
fault tree (see Fig. 5) and the narrative storylines (see Table 2). Trying
to solve the problem (ii), we used FTA with the aim of supporting sys-
tematic thinking among the participants. In the four expert workshops,
the usage of the fault tree was effective at clarifying the scenario struc-
ture as a cause–effect chain between collapse states, risk factors, and
countermeasures. Indeed, this helped to share common understanding
of the scenarios as well as recognize perception gaps among the partic-
ipants. In summary, the graphical representation of the fault tree was
helpful for facilitating the understanding of the overall structure of
scenarios, thereby encouraging interactive discussions among the par-
ticipants. The narrative storylines, on the other hand, provided ratio-
nales for the scenarios by detailing the connection between nodes in
the fault tree. Note that not all of the rationales were explicitly repre-
sented in the fault tree in Fig. 5. For example, in Scenario (A), one
 Y. Kishita et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 124 (2017) 114–125 121

Table 2
Scenario storylines of collapsed and resilient energy systems.

Category Scenario storylines

(A) City's financial crisis (B) Confusion of citizens' daily lives (C) Deterioration of the biological system

Collapsed Because of a surge in energy costs (including higher The liberalization of the electricity market brings an The current energy supply relies on fossil fuels. This
energy electricity price), local companies move outside the city excessive competition among electricity suppliers trend worsens environmental pollution over time,
and, consequently, some of them go bankrupt. This
systems in pursuit of cheaper costs. This poses an increase in the while also having a negative impact on global
unemployment rate of the city. In addition, higher causes electricity shortages and makes the power warming. For example, air pollution becomes worse
energy costs undermine households' purchase power, grid fragile. When the electricity demand exceeds because of the usage of automobiles with internal
resulting in weakening the local economy. the capacity of the power grid, a large-scale blackout combustion engines (e.g., gasoline vehicles and diesel
Caused by a decrease in the city's tax income from hits the city, resulting in the terrible confusion of the vehicles). As a result, the biological system is
both industry and households, the city declares citizens' everyday lives. The stoppage of electricity deteriorated due to energy usage, and public health is
bankruptcy eventually. The financial crisis of the city supply makes any home appliance (e.g., damaged by air pollution.
lowers municipal services (e.g., water supply, air-conditioner and refrigerator) unavailable. For Moreover, when energy infrastructures have severe
sewage management, and solid waste management), example, as the city is steadily aging, more elderly damages by natural disasters (e.g., earthquake and
ending up the damage on the city's brand. This also people suffer from heat strokes due to a temperature typhoon) or terror attacks, radioactive pollution
leads to accelerating a population decrease in the rise by the heat island phenomenon. Moreover, happens in the city although the nearest nuclear power
city, thereby decreasing the tax income. railway transportation services, hospital services, plants are located approximately 100 km away from
nursing services, etc. become unavailable. the city. For example, tap water may not be drunk.
Resilient The city introduces a policy to promote the diffusion In case of a large-scale blackout, standalone power The city supports energy-saving efforts for reducing
energy of renewable energy (e.g., rooftop photovoltaics (PV) generators (e.g., fuel cells and battery storages) are the consumption of fossil fuels, which are already
systems and urban biomass) in order to decrease electricity installed in hospitals, industry, offices, and described as countermeasures in Scenario (B).
prices against increasing fossil fuel costs. Examples households. The city provides a subsidy program for Moreover, in order to mitigate air pollution, the city
include the subsidy program for the initial purchase the initial purchase of such generators. The batteries transforms the transportation system by switching
of PV and the installation of new energy recovery of electric vehicles (EV) and fuel cell vehicles (FCV) from passenger automobiles to public
systems in incineration plants and waste water are also available as a backup power source. For this transportation. This also would have a large impact
treatment plants. The liberalization of the electricity purpose, some charging stations for EV and FCV are on energy-savings because passenger automobiles
market would also contribute to a decrease in constructed in the city, where PV is installed to currently account for the largest portion in energy
electricity prices. Note that this liberalization is supply electricity. In order to support energy supply usage in the transport sector (see Table 1).
currently ongoing by the Japanese government to households, the city enacts the laws to transfer Against the risk of severe damage on energy
(Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan, electricity within the city (e.g., from industry to infrastructures, there are no effective mitigation
METI, 2015). households) and to store emergency food and water measures because most of energy infrastructures are
One promising countermeasure to improve the at supermarkets. For addressing heat strokes, out of control for the city. Instead, as an adaptation
unemployment rate is to create new jobs in research greening the city by planning more trees is effective measure, the city enacts the law to store emergency
and development (R&D) in the field of renewable at mitigating the heat island phenomena. food and water at every supermarket.
energy. Therefore, the city takes a policy to support Preventive measures against blackouts using more
entrepreneurs and incentivize new business models renewable energy and promoting energy-savings. In the
based on the collaboration between local industry short term, the city accelerates energy-savings by
and the five universities located in the city. introducing more energy-efficient products and new
technologies (e.g., building energy management system
(BEMS) and home energy management system
(HEMS)). In the long term, sustainability education at
elementary and junior high schools is important as an
enabler for lifestyle changes toward an energy-saving
society. Energy-saving efforts at municipal level include
the cooperation with neighboring cities in operating
waste management systems (i.e., incineration plant and
waste water treatment plant). However, the
environmental impact of transportation of solid waste
would be increased as the transportation distance
becomes longer.
Key policy In order to achieve resilient energy systems described across Scenarios (A)–(C), several key policy options are chosen as shown in Fig. 6. They are summarized
options according to time axis as follows:

• Short-term (–2020 or around): Aiming to promote energy-savings and mitigate heat strokes particularly for elderly people, the city plants more trees to reduce
the temperature. Also, the city takes several measures (e.g., subsidy program and environmental tax) for encouraging industry and citizens to introduce more
energy-efficient products and technologies (e.g., BEMS and HEMS). In case of a large-scale blackout, the city legislates the scheme to transfer electricity from one
sector to another (e.g., from industry to households).
• Mid-term (–2025): To promote the usage of urban biomass as a renewable energy source, the city implements new energy recovery systems in waste
management infrastructures (i.e., incineration plant and waste water treatment plant). These infrastructures are already decayed and need to be renovated in a
decade or around. In case of a large-scale blackout, the city enacts the law to incentivize the installation of standalone power generators and battery storages.
These products are still expensive as of 2015, but will become gradually cheaper thanks to technological development.
• Long-term (–2030): In order to create macroscopic social changes over time, the city takes several policies from different angles. On energy demand side, with
the goal of reducing fossil fuel consumption, the city implements sustainability education programs and develops an alternative transportation system to
accelerate modal shift toward public transportation. On energy supply side, the city introduces renewable energy (mainly PV) on a large scale. Moreover, the city
establishes renewables-related research and industries for the purpose of job creation and enhancing the local economy.

countermeasure was to create new jobs by developing renewables- 5.1.2. Challenges

related R&D center. This countermeasure was generated based on the
idea that the five universities located in Suita City (see Table 1) are
already available as a catalyst for the co-production of knowledge and
values. In this way, narrative scenario storylines and fault trees comple-
ment each other.
Based on the case study, we identified four challenges from a meth-
odological viewpoint as follows.
First, the feasibility of the described scenarios needs to be further
assessed. The focus of this paper was not necessarily on how feasible
and realistic the described scenarios were; rather, we aimed at exploring
122 Y. Kishita et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 124 (2017) 114–125
Fig. 6. Placing key policy options on time axis.
a possible range of collapsed energy systems and potential risk factors as
well as effective countermeasures. In order to ensure the feasibility of sce-
narios, their internal consistency must be checked. As shown in the case
study, the fault tree enabled the visualization of the scenario structure,
thereby helping to understand the logical relation that underpins the sce-
nario storylines. However, when the number of nodes (i.e., goals, risk fac-
tors, and countermeasures) becomes large (such as hundreds of nodes), it
would be fairly difficult to manage the entire logical relation of the scenar-
ios. Here, the problem is how to combine the results of FTA and narrative
storylines in a way that ensures the internal consistency of a scenario. In
such cases, computational assistance should be used for supporting con-
sistency management. For example, the Sustainable Society Scenario
(3S) Simulator, which is a computer-aided scenario design system, is
available for visualizing the logical structure of scenarios using graph the-
ory (Umeda et al., 2009).
In addition, our approach foregrounds FTA to analyze collapse fu-
tures as a step in describing more resilient futures. Further work
needs to be undertaken to ascertain the “additionality of resilience”
achieved through this process of testing collapse futures, relative to
that which may have been possible by starting with the description of
resilient futures. An approach seeking to quantify the risk profile (across
varying dimensions such as, economic, geopolitical, and natural disas-
ters) of the futures may be helpful in this regard.
Secondly, there is a challenge in identifying the full range of poten-
tial collapse scenarios and mechanisms of collapse, although only select-
ed pathways were described here. For example, the resilience measures
in Table 2 were rather technology-oriented, whereas not many institu-
tional, social, and economic measures were included. Given that energy
systems are complex, nested, and interconnected technical, social, eco-
nomic, and environmental systems, there is a high probability that two
seemingly disparate occurrences could interact to create alternative col-
lapse mechanisms. Methods need to be further developed in order to
ensure a full coverage (at least thematically) of the major collapse sce-
nario typologies, as well as ensuring that the subsystems and their inter-
actions are appropriately, consistently, and thoroughly taken into
account. In this regard, it would be an option to integrate other tools
into our method in order to support the comprehensiveness of the sce-
narios. For example, PEST (political, economic, social, and technological)
analysis (Healey, 1994) is often used for assisting idea generation. Fur-
thermore, it would be helpful to provide workshop participants with
sufficient information regarding relevant work as shown in Section 2.2
(e.g., Bollinger et al., 2014; Moore et al., 2014).
Thirdly, in the case study, we did not analyze how effective the key
policy options in Fig. 6 are to achieving resilient energy systems. In
order to describe pathways that connect resilient future visions and
the present, one promising way is the combination of backcasting and
forecasting (Kok et al., 2011; Milestad et al., 2014; van Vliet and Kok,
2015). Therefore, the backcasting scenario design process proposed in
this paper (see Fig. 4) should be extended by incorporating the idea of
forecasting. Moreover, quantitative assessment is desirable to deter-
mine effective policy options that make it possible to draw feasible
pathways. Toward this end, the resilience of the scenarios should be
assessed in an objective manner. These should be addressed in future
research.
Fourthly, the proposed method needs to be tested in a participatory
design environment since the case study was based on scholarly prac-
tices (i.e., expert workshops). In reality, one of the most critical con-
straints in executing participatory design is time for participation and
duration of the process (Bohunovsky et al., 2011). This was the case in
our research project (see Section 4). For this reason, we invited available
experts for each workshop (see Table A1) and asked them to generate
various ideas primarily using the fault tree, whereas the scenario design
team spent much time for back-office work to revise the fault tree and
develop narrative scenario storylines. Nevertheless, the method would
be potentially deployable to participatory backcasting. It is thus impor-
tant to engage real-world stakeholders to accommodate more diversi-
fied and profound views, ideas, and values in envisioning resilient
futures, and then to create the space for actions and solutions to achieve
resilient futures in real world. There is potential to combine the FTA as-
pects using expert stakeholder input, with the perception of risk by cit-
izens and affected communities. When taking a participatory approach,
we need to answer the questions of who should be involved in the sce-
nario design process and what roles the scenario design team and the
participants should play (McKee et al., 2015; Sanders and Stappers,
2008; Wiek and Iwaniec, 2014). These should be taken into account in
order to involve stakeholders in our scenario design process.
 Y. Kishita et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 124 (2017) 114–125
5.2. Policy implications for resilient energy futures
In the case study, a number of countermeasures were listed to im-
prove the resilience of the energy system. According to the results in
Fig. 6, policy options that can be taken by the city include: (1) Renovat-
ing social infrastructures (i.e., incineration plant and waste water treat-
ment plant) is promising to enhance energy recovery from sewage and
solid waste, because it is the time for renovation as the lifespan is 40–
50 years and they are already decayed, and (2) Promoting energy-sav-
ings and renewables (e.g., PV and solid waste) is helpful to adapt
large-scale blackouts. These countermeasures are available as potential
policies or actions that can be taken by the city or local stakeholders (in-
cluding industry and citizens) to deal with various risk factors. In partic-
ular, the listed countermeasures can be incorporated in designing the
city's long-term general plan (Suita City, 2006).
Because the concept of resilience is value-laden, there is a need to re-
flect opinions of not only experts, but stakeholders (e.g., citizens and in-
dustry) to define resilient energy systems. Toward this end, real-world
stakeholders should be engaged in the scenario design process as men-
tioned in Section 5.1. At least, the described scenarios need to be
reviewed and evaluated by citizens and policy-makers in order to
check sufficiency of the policy options and prioritize them. This is one
of future issues of this research.
Although the city has potential countermeasures toward resilient en-
ergy systems as described in Fig. 6, limited effects may be obtained by tak-
ing such countermeasures against the identified risk factors. For example,
even if the above countermeasures (1) and (2) are taken, the city's self-
sufficiency in energy would be far below 100% due to a limitation in re-
newable energy potential. This is because the energy system, particularly
on the supply side, is dominated by national policies and the global econ-
omy, both of which are uncontrollable by the city but are critically influ-
ential on the city's energy system. Examples of Japan's national energy
policy include the feed-in tariff (FIT) program and the liberalization of
the electricity market. Therefore, in order to transform the energy system
in a drastic way toward resilience, it is vital to reflect the described scenar-
ios on policy design at national level (upscaling), although there appear to
be a long way. Until then, the city is recommended to take possible coun-
termeasures such as listed in Fig. 6, including grass-root activities, in order
to make incremental but steady changes toward resilient energy systems.
6. Conclusion
We proposed the method for designing backcasting scenarios in a
way that allows a systematic process of envisioning resilient futures.
To this end, we formalized the scenario design process in two phases,
that is, the first phase is to assume unwanted futures, upon which the
Appendix A
Table A1 shows the details of the four expert workshops organized in the case study.
Table A1
Overview of the workshops used in the case study.
Associated
steps in the
scenario design
No. Overview process (Fig. 4) Participants
1 The scenario design team presented the problem Step (2)
definition of the scenario design project and the
entire scenario design process (Fig. 4). Also, the
scenario design team gave a brief introduction
regarding the definition of energy systems (Fig. 1),
the concept of resilience, and the current situation of
Suita City. Then, the participants were divided into
two groups (Group A and Group B), each of which
aimed to describe collapsed energy systems in Suita
City using fault tree analysis (FTA).
123
second phase is to create resilient futures. Fault tree analysis (FTA)
was used for supporting backward thinking to arrive at long-term
goals. We confirmed that the method was workable in expert work-
shops by drawing upon the interdisciplinary research project regarding
resilient energy systems in a Japanese community.
We presented the case study where three scenarios were designed,
i.e., (A) the city's financial crisis, (B) confusion of citizens' daily lives,
and (C) deterioration of the biological system. In the case study, we or-
ganized four expert workshops to collect diversified ideas and expertise
regarding resilient energy systems. One advantage of the method was
that two forms of scenario representation (i.e., narrative storylines and
fault trees) complemented each other. In other words, a fault tree en-
ables the clear representation of the cause–effect chain between col-
lapse states, risk factors, and countermeasures, whereas a narrative
storyline gives rationales of the scenario by detailing the fault tree.
The primary focus of this paper was on methodological development
in the context of backcasting scenarios for resilient futures. However,
there are several challenges yet to be addressed when we attempt to
bring the proposed method in practice. One of them is that, although
the main target of this paper was energy systems, the proposed method
would potentially be applicable to other kinds of systems. Thus, its appli-
cability should be tested in future research. Another challenge is that, in
order to derive profound policy options for resilient futures, it is important
to extend the method to participatory backcasting by engaging various
stakeholders (e.g., citizens, industry, and policy-makers) in the scenario
design process. By addressing this, the scenario contents would become
richer through the co-production of knowledge and values between ex-
perts and stakeholders and, moreover, the method should also be updated
so that it can be accepted as a tool for supporting policy design.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to extend our sincere gratitude to Mr.
Kensuke Yamaguchi (the University of Tokyo), Dr. Shinya Kajiki (the
University of Tokyo), Prof. Jumpei Kubota (RIHN), Prof. Tetsu Sato
(RIHN), Dr. Terukazu Kumazawa (RIHN), Dr. Steven McGreevy (RIHN),
Dr. Hisaaki Kato (RIHN), Prof. Keishiro Hara (Osaka University), Prof.
Hooman Farzaneh (Kyoto University), and Dr. Andrew Chapman (Kyoto
University) for their fruitful comments in scenario workshops. This re-
search was supported by Research Institute for Humanity and Nature
(RIHN), Feasibility Studies “Design and Integrated Assessment of Re-
gional Anthropospheric Energy Systems” (PI: Dr. Yusuke Kishita) and
“Co-designing Futurable Anthropospheric Energy Systems” (PI: Prof.
Benjamin C. McLellan). The first author, Yusuke Kishita, acknowledges
financial support from the Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (A) (No.
26701015) from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS).
Outcome
The scenario design team (facilitator) and • Using FTA, each group listed goals and risk factors
experts from political science, public policy, and of collapsed energy systems by brainstorming.
economics. • Several visions (approximately ten visions in
total) of collapsed energy futures were eventually
drafted.
(continued on next page)
124 Y. Kishita et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 124 (2017) 114–125

Table A1 (continued)

Associated
steps in the
scenario design
No. Overview process (Fig. 4) Participants Outcome

2 The scenario design team presented four scenarios Steps (2) and
of collapsed energy systems, which were drafted (3)
based on the results of the first workshop. Then,
the participants were divided into two groups
(Group C and Group D), each of which generated
countermeasures against the four scenarios using
FTA.
3 The scenario design team presented four Step (3)
scenarios, which were updated based on the
results of Workshop 2. The scenarios described
collapsed energy systems and potential
countermeasures. Then, the participants (experts)
gave feedback to the draft scenarios.
4 The scenario design team presented three Step (4)
scenarios describing collapsed energy systems and
countermeasures, which were updated based on
the results of the third workshop. Here, one of the
four scenarios in Workshop 3 was integrated into
another, resulting in three scenarios in total. Then,
the participants reviewed the scenarios and
updated part of them using FTA. To draw
pathways to the resilient energy visions, each
participant chose five important policy options
and placed them on time axis.
The scenario design team (facilitator) and
experts from political science, public policy, risk
analysis, and hydrology.
The scenario design team (facilitator) and
experts from political science, public policy, risk
analysis, hydrology, ecological science, ontology
engineering, and environmental sociology.
The scenario design team (facilitator) and
experts from energy science, energy policy,
sustainability science, and industrial ecology.
• For the presented four scenarios, each group
listed countermeasures to overcome the col-
lapsed energy systems using FTA.
• The participants wrote a brief storyline for
each scenario, describing critical risk factors
and potential countermeasures.
• By taking into account benefits and risks of
stakeholders (e.g., government, mayor,
industry, citizens, and energy supply
companies), the participants (experts)
expressed impressions on the four scenarios.
• The participants also gave feedback to the sce-
nario design team with regard to the scenario
design process.
• For the presented three scenarios, the partici-
pants updated the fault tree focusing on risk
factors and countermeasures.
• The participants made a rough roadmap of
policy options that should be taken from 2015
to 2030.

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Yusuke Kishita is Lecturer at the University of Tokyo. Prior to the current position, he
Park, S.E., Marshall, N.A., Jakku, E., Dowd, A.M., Howden, S.M., Mendham, E., Fleming, A.,
worked at National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) and
2012. Informing adaptation responses to climate change through theories of transfor-
Osaka University. His research field is scenario design for sustainable futures. His current
mation. Glob. Environ. Chang. 22 (1), 115–126.
research activities include sustainable energy systems with emerging energy technologies,
Pidgeon, N., Demski, C., Butler, C., Parkhill, K., Spence, A., 2014. Creating a national citizen
(e.g., photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and fuel cells), energy use of woody biomass, sustain-
engagement process for energy policy. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 111 (Supplement
able manufacturing industry, and sustainable business models. He holds MSc and Ph.D. in
4), 13606–13613.
mechanical engineering from Osaka University.
Quist, J., 2007. Backcasting for a sustainable future: the impact after 10 years. Eburon Ac-
ademic Publishers, Delft, the Netherlands.
Benjamin C. McLellan is Associate Professor at Kyoto University teaching in energy sci-
Quist, J., Vergragt, P., 2006. Past and future of backcasting: the shift to stakeholder partic-
ence, prior to which he worked at the Sustainable Minerals Institute of the University of
ipation and a proposal for a methodological framework. Futures 38 (9), 1027–1045.
Queensland on sustainable design and assessment processes within the minerals and in-
Reed, M.S., Podesta, G., Fazey, I., Geeson, N., Hessel, R., Hubacek, K., Letson, D., Nainggolan,
dustrial processing industries. He is currently involved in research around deep ocean
D., Prell, C., Rickenbach, M.G., Ritsema, C., Schwilch, G., Stringer, L.C., Thomas, A.D.,
minerals life cycle sustainability impacts, stakeholder engagement, and more broadly in
2013. Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate
the minerals-energy nexus. His focus is on the contribution of minerals to society through
change and analyse adaptation options. Ecol. Econ. 94 (October 2013), 66–77.
their inclusion in clean energy technologies as well as through direct economic benefits.
Robèrt, K.H., Schmidt-Bleek, B., Aloisi de Larderel, J., Basile, G., Jansen, J.L., Kuehr, R., Price
His Ph.D. and undergraduate studies were in Chemical Engineering at the University of
Thomas, P., Suzuki, M., Hawken, P., Wackernagel, M., 2002. Strategic sustainable de-
Queensland.
velopment: selection, design and synergies of applied tools. J. Clean. Prod. 10 (3),
197–214.
Damien Giurco is Professor of Resource Futures at the Institute for Sustainable Futures,
Robinson, J., 1982. Energy backcasting: a proposed method of policy analysis. Energ Policy
University of Technology Sydney (UTS) where he leads a team of researchers advancing
10 (4), 337–344.
sustainable energy and resource futures. His research focuses on improving resource stew-
Robinson, J.B., 1990. Futures under glass: a recipe for people who hate to predict. Futures
ardship by modelling current patterns of use and articulating strategies to achieve pre-
22 (8), 820–842.
ferred future scenarios. He has been a visiting professor at Kyoto University and
Robinson, J., Burch, S., Talwar, S., O'Shea, M., Walsh, M., 2011. Envisioning sustainability:
currently directs the Wealth from Waste Cluster, a collaborative research program
recent progress in the use of participatory backcasting approaches for sustainability
supporting circular economy pathways and policies for metals. He is Editor-in-Chief for
research. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 78 (5), 56–768.
the journal Resources and holds a PhD in Chemical Engineering from The University of
Robinson, C.J., Maclean, K., Hill, R., Bock, E., Rist, P., 2016. Participatory mapping to nego-
Sydney.
tiate indigenous knowledge used to assess environmental risk. Sustain. Sci. 11 (1),
115–126.
Kazumasu Aoki is Professor of Political Science at University of Toyama. He worked as vis-
Sanders, E.B.N., Stappers, P.J., 2008. Co-creation and the new landscapes of design. CoDe-
iting scholar at the Center for the Study of Law and Society, University of California, Berke-
sign 4 (1), 5–18.
ley and the University of Tokyo Graduate School of Public Policy and contributing author
Smith, A., Stirling, A., 2010. The politics of social-ecological resilience and sustainable
for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. His current interest centers on the possibilities of
socio-technical transitions. Ecol. Soc. 15 (1) (Article 11).
emergence of decentralized governance in the areas of energy policies. Analytical focus
Stamatelatos, M., Vesely, W., Dugan, J., Fragola, J., Minarick, J., Railsback, J., 2002. Fault Tree
rests on capturing the dynamic relations between technological systems and political in-
Handbook with Aerospace Applications. NASA Publication, Washington, D.C.
stitutions. He earned Masters of Laws from Keio University and the University of Chicago
Suita City, 2006. The 3rd general plan of Suita City 2006–2020. Available from: http://
Law School and graduated from Keio University Graduate School of Law in Political Science
www.city.suita.osaka.jp/home/soshiki/div-gyoseikeiei/kseisaku/seisaku/3rd-soukei-
major.
top.html (accessed on 23 March 2016) (in Japanese).
Suita City, 2010. Vision of New Energy and Energy-Saving in Suita City, Suita City (in
Go Yoshizawa is Associate Professor of Biomedical Ethics and Public Policy at the Graduate
Japanese).
School of Medicine, Osaka University. Having experience of working at a private think-
Suita City, 2012. Suita's environment white paper. Available from: http://www.city.suita.
tank and several universities, he has been involved in a number of projects on technology
osaka.jp/var/rev0/0062/9736/201342392442.pdf (Accessed on 5 November 2015)
assessment, public engagement, and knowledge policy and management in life and med-
(in Japanese).
ical sciences as well as in the fields of environmental and energy. He holds MSc and Ph.D.
Suita City, 2013. Suita City statistics in 2012FY. Available from: http://www.city.suita.
in Science and Technology Policy from University of Sussex, UK and MSc in History of Sci-
osaka.jp/home/soshiki/div-somu/somu/001411/004513.html (Accessed on 11 No-
ence from the University of Tokyo.
vember 2015) (in Japanese).
Svenfelt, A., Engström, R., Örjan, S., 2011. Decreasing energy use in buildings by 50% by
Itsuki C. Handoh is Associate Professor of Earth Systems Science and Mathematical
2050 — a backcasting study using stakeholder groups. Technol. Forecast. Soc.
Modelling at Niigata University. His current research interests include quantification of
Chang. 78 (5), 785–796.
Planetary Boundaries for chemical pollution, and co-development of crowd-oriented envi-
Swart, R.J., Raskin, P., Robinson, J., 2004. The problem of the future: sustainability science
ronmental risk recognition system in which the Android/iOS app “Value-Action Net for
and scenario analysis. Glob. Environ. Chang. 14 (2), 137–146.
Futurability (, consilience-cyberspace.com)” plays an integral role. He was awarded a Hu-
Tuominen, A., Tapio, P., Varho, V., Järvi, T., Banister, D., 2014. Pluralistic backcasting: inte-
manities Research Encouragement Prize from the National Institutes for the Humanities in
grating multiple visions with policy packages for transport climate policy. Futures 60
2013. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of East Anglia, UK.
(August 2014), 41–58.
Umeda, Y., Nishiyama, T., Yamasaki, Y., Kishita, Y., Fukushige, S., 2009. Proposal of sustain-
able society scenario simulator. CIRP J. Manuf. Sci. Technol. 1 (4), 272–278.
United Nations, 2016. Sustainable development goals. Available from: https://
sustainabledevelopment.un.org/topics/sustainabledevelopmentgoals (accessed on 7
March 2016).