Journal of Cleaner Production 142 (2017) 4310e4326

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Journal of Cleaner Production

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jclepro

Technology roadmap: Cattle farming sustainability in Germany

Alvaro Rigel Gallegos Rivero a, Tugrul Daim b, *
a
Technical University of Hamburg, Harburg, Germany
b
Portland State University, Portland, OR, USA

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Cattle farming is one of the most environmentally threatening industries worldwide. Its impact has been
Received 8 August 2016 assessed as a main driver for soil degradation, deforestation, water bed contamination, and greenhouse
Received in revised form gas emissions. Germany is one of the largest consumers and producers of livestock products in the world.
27 November 2016
This high volume demand for livestock forces farmers and consumers to import from overseas and in-
Accepted 28 November 2016
Available online 29 November 2016
crease national yields. Technologies worldwide are being developed with a focus on sustainability and
cleaner production; however, this may not necessarily be easily adapted and implemented by German
farmers. This paper uses the technology roadmap approach to propose a plan for implementing these
Keywords:
Technology roadmap
technologies by identifying the barriers and actions to remove them. Aquaponics, grazing management,
Cattle farming and capturing methane are current global trends used in the effort to reduce the impact of livestock.
Sustainability While aquaponics are at an early stage of development and implementation in Germany, grazing
Germany management techniques and methane processing on free range cattle are mostly still unknown and not
implemented by farmers producing in the country.
© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Recent environmental trends suggest that population growth
has forced an overexploiting of the world's resources in order to
keep up with the demands of a large population. A measure
currently used is related to the carbon footprint (Berners-Lee and
Clark, 2010). The carbon footprint is defined as the amount of
greenhouse gases (GHG) and specifically carbon dioxide emitted by
something (as a person's activities or a product's manufacture and
transport) during a given period (MerriameWebster, 2015). Studies
related to the carbon footprint, GHG, and environment conserva-
tion have determined that at the resource consumption rates that
we currently hold, the planet's natural resources may not be
enough.
Recent studies show alarming data suggesting that if the
average global consumer had the same resource usage as the
average American consumer, the resources of 4.7 planets would
barely be enough to support such a high demand for resources
(McDonald, 2015). While this data is largely attributed to the life-
style of the country, it also indicates the hectares needed to support
such a life rhythm allowing for an approximate calculation of the
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: tugrul.u.daim@pdx.edu (T. Daim).
area needed (McDonald, 2015). The fact that such information
places developed countries' resource consumption above devel-
oping countries has created controversy, and also received criticism
due to the data collected to generate such statistical information.
According to Linus Blomqvist, Director of Conservation at the
Breakthrough Institute in California, there is no sufficient data to
create a meaningful ecological footprint estimation, while re-
searchers are still unable to assess and evaluate the sustainability of
agricultural practices around the world, thus, being unable to
present a solid report on to what extent the resources of earth are
being overused (McDonald, 2015). Although it is still impossible to
determine how intense the exploitation of our planet's resources is,
we can pay attention to the trends driven by human population
growth and their effect on the environment. When analyzing the
effect of anthropogenic weather change factors, GHG plays an
important role in the constant dilemma that arises on how to utilize
the resources in order to minimize the damage. According to NASA,
“Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate
change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates
that the GHG emitted by human activities are the primary driver.”
(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and U.S. Global
Change Research Program, 2009) When analyzing the drivers for
human activity, due to changes in developing countries' economies,
livestock farming now generates the most GHG emissions even
above transportation and energy GHG emissions because of the

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.176
0959-6526/© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
 A.R. Gallegos Rivero, T. Daim / Journal of Cleaner Production 142 (2017) 4310e4326
increased demand for food, specifically meat and dairy products
(FAO, 2006).
The aim of this research is to analyze the current trends and
technology available or in development that can enhance sustain-
able growth for the livestock industry, specifically in Germany.
Germany has made several commitments to reduce their emissions
of GHG, and is a leading nation in innovative technology (Appun,
2015). The technical solutions that are currently available that
tackle the major problems of sustainable livestock farming will be
analyzed, and mapped to the areas that would most benefit from
them. Traditional livestock farming creates a high toll on resources,
however technological innovations may present a sustainable
alternative by encouraging livestock farmers to take a different
approach to livestock farming. Prior research evaluated the impact
of beef cattle through different perspectives including the impact of
greenhouse gas emissions (Mogensen et al., 2014; Dudley et al.,
2014; Cerri et al., 2016; de Figueiredo et al., 2017), the life cycle
assessment in Brazil (Dick et al., 2015a,b), the water footprint in
New Zealand (Zonderland-Thomassen et al., 2014), carbon, water,
and land use impact (Ridoutt et al., 2014), environmental impact
(Galka, 2004), and mitigation strategies (Dick et al., 2015a,b). This
paper builds upon this type of research, and provides a framework
to leverage such research to develop a plan for the future.
2. Literature review: livestock in context
2.1. Growing population
The global population in 2014 was 7,238,184,000 people, and
population statistics for that period show that 6 billion people lived
in underdeveloped countries while 1.2 billion lived in developed
countries. The global fertility rate was 2.5 children per woman
ranging from single-child mothers in Taiwan up to 7 children per
mother in Niger. Statistics also show that 53% of the global popu-
lation lived in urban areas while the rest resided in rural zones.
Projections for years 2030 and 2050 forecast population sizes of
8444 million people and 9683 million people respectively (Haub
and Kaneda, 2014). The implications of supporting such a large
population and to sustain its growth by supplying its demands for
food, energy, and other resources have been a major concern for
decades. To support such a large population, the earth biosphere
has suffered transformations that have diverted natural resource
availability from natural cycles into man-made facilities in order to
supply humankind's demands. These man-made facilities are
largely intended for agricultural purposes, housing, and energy
generation. It is an industrialized process, which grows at acceler-
ated pace.
2.2. Food for everyone
Feeding such a large population has come with serious chal-
lenges. Population pressure is already challenging the traditional
farming model where due to less land allotment, farmers have to
work harder just to makes ends meet. For example, the rural
population in Africa and Asia has nearly doubled between the years
1950 and 1985 with a corresponding decline in land availability
(UN General Assembly, 1987). The growth rate of global demand for
cereals was expected to rise 1.4 percent per year until 2015, and
thereafter slightly reduce in demand increase to 1.2 percent per
year, however in developing countries; an overall and general
expectation is that production will not keep pace with demand.
Supporting such growth from land alone, implies that in the up-
coming 30 years, developing countries will need an overall increase
of 12.5 percent in agricultural land (Harrison, 2002). At a global
level, there is adequate unused potential farmland, where an extra
4311
2.8 billion hectares are suitable to grow different types of crops.
Nevertheless, while such area is already twice as much as what is
currently used (Harrison, 2002), only a fraction of this extra land is
realistically available for agricultural expansion in the foreseeable
future, since much of it is needed to preserve forests and support
infrastructural development, and another fraction is difficult to
reach due to accessibility and other constrains (Harrison, 2002).
2.3. Environmental implications e forestry
The role of forests in human economies is of major importance.
Forests not only provide oxygen to the atmosphere by processing
CO2 working as lungs for the planet, the forest industry also support
14 million people worldwide. Wood based fuels are the dominant
source of energy for more than 2 billion people living in poverty. In
Africa, over 90% of harvested wood is used for energy alone, how-
ever wood is not the only resource provided by forests. About 80%
of people in the developing world use non-wood forests products
for health and nutritional needs as well as for household income
(FAO, 2010). To satisfy the growing demands of the rising popula-
tion an important quota of resources from forests is claimed due to
urbanization and agriculture. According to the Food and Agricul-
ture Organization of the UN, deforestation in the past decade has
affected an estimated 13 million hectares per year yielding a net
change in forest areas in the period 2000e2010 of estimated -5.2
million hectares per year (FAO, 2010). Drivers for such a significant
consumption of forests were previously linked to planned urbani-
zation schemes and local farmers increasing their arable land,
however studies from forty-one countries reveal that forest loss
rates are most closely linked with the increase of urban population,
and agricultural exports for more developed countries:
“It's not about poor people chopping down trees. It's all the
people in New York, Europe and elsewhere who want cheap
products, primarily food.” e Scott Poynton, Executive Director of
Tropical Forest Trust.
The shift takes place from a small-scale farmer driven defores-
tation, to a large scale deforesting driven by distant urban growth,
agricultural trade and exports having local population growth as a
secondary driver and not primary as previously considered (Biello,
2010).
Crop projections suggest that the cropland will need to be
increased by an extra 120 million hectares by year 2030, while
urban land areas will continue to grow a considerable amount. This
land will have to come from forest clearance. In addition, by 2030
the annual world consumption of industrial round-wood is ex-
pected to rise by 60% of current levels, to nearly 2400 million cubic
meters (Harrison, 2002).
Livestock's role in deforestation is of particular importance,
especially in Latin America where the largest net losses of forests
and resulting carbon losses occur. In tropical Latin America, land
used for extensive grazing has increased continuously over the past
decades and most of this increase has been at the expense of for-
ests. Throughout Latin America, rainforest conversion is dominated
by the establishment primarily of pastures but also cropland, irre-
spective of the characteristics of soils, climate regimes, and
topography. Pasture occupies the largest proportion of the agri-
cultural land in the region, and to a large extent the profitability of
cattle as a productive venture is low. However, this venture is
highly lucrative if it ensures land occupation and ownership and
thus access to profits due to ensuing land price increases (FAO,
2006). The most important change in land use in tropical Latin
America over the last decades has been the widespread conversion
of forest to pastureland. In Central America, forest area has been
4312 A.R. Gallegos Rivero, T. Daim / Journal of Cleaner Production 142 (2017) 4310e4326
reduced by almost 40% over the past four decades, with pasture and
cattle population increasing rapidly over the same period. In
addition, soybean and cereal production primarily destined for feed
production has unleashed a wave of events leading to the
destruction of natural habitats over vast areas to deforestation
(FAO, 2006).
2.4. Environmental implications e water
Unsustainable development pathways and governance failures
have affected the quality and availability of water resources,
compromising their capacity to generate social and economic
benefits. Demand for freshwater is growing. Unless the balance
between demand and finite supplies is restored, the world will face
an increasingly severe global water deficit. Global water demand is
largely influenced by population growth, urbanization, food and
energy security policies, and macro-economic processes such as
trade globalization, changing diets and increasing consumption
(UN Water, 2015).
Demand for water is expected to increase in all sectors of pro-
duction (WWAP, 2012). By 2030, the world is projected to face a 40%
global water deficit under the business-as-usual scenario (2030
WRG, 2009). By 2050, global water demand is projected to in-
crease by 55%, mainly due to growing demands from
manufacturing, thermal electricity generation and domestic use.
Competing demands impose difficult allocation decisions, and limit
the expansion of sectors critical to sustainable development, in
particular food production and energy (UN Water, 2015). The live-
stock business is among the most damaging sectors to the Earth's
increasingly scarce water resources, contributing among other
things to water pollution, eutrophication, and the degeneration of
coral reefs. The major polluting agents are animal wastes, antibi-
otics and hormones, chemicals from tanneries, fertilizers, and the
pesticides used to spray feed crops. Widespread overgrazing dis-
turbs water cycles, reducing replenishment of above and below
ground water resources. Significant amounts of water are with-
drawn for the production of feed. Livestock are estimated to be the
main inland source of phosphorous and nitrogen contamination of
the South China Sea, contributing to biodiversity loss in marine
ecosystems (FAO, 2008).
2.5. Environmental implications e greenhouse gasses
Forestry is one of the largest sources of greenhouse gas emis-
sions created by human activity. It is a double impact effect that
eliminates a biological system to process CO2 and generates new
source of GHG in the form of decomposing biomass. The UN
Environment Program estimates that slowing such deforestation
could restore about 50 billion metric tons of CO2 , which is equiv-
alent to a year of global emissions (Biello, 2010). Whether it is
driven by the growing population through urbanization, agricul-
ture, or live-stock, it is a major problem that is expected to slow
further in the coming decades along with an increase of a planta-
tion area which grows rapidly. Production from industrialized
plantations is expected to double by 2030 from 400 million cubic
meters currently to about 800 million cubic meters. Another boost
is expected to come from tree growing outside of forests and
plantations along roads, towns, homes, and farms thereby
increasing tree services to the environment. The central challenges
for the forestry sector are how to manage natural and cultivated
tree resources so as to increase production, improve food security,
and energy supply while safe-guarding the environmental services
and biodiversity provided by forests (Harrison, 2002). The most
important GHG anthropogenic source, even higher than trans-
portation or industrial emissions, is live-stock. Livestock has not
received the attention that the energy or transport sectors have.
2.6. Case - the threat of livestock
A large input of resources is needed to produce and maintain the
numbers of livestock needed to supply the demand of a thriving
population. Analyzing the factors that are involved in livestock
farming is complicated. To support the growing demand for live-
stock, a large area of land is required to be permanently designated
for livestock cultivation. Currently, the amount of land needed
covers one third of the total area of the available land on the planet
(FAO, 2006). It is also important to notice that by providing the
space and area required for livestock cultivation that deforestation
occurs in order to house and provide livestock grazing areas or to
harvest crops to feed the livestock. The growth of livestock pro-
duction doubles the effect by generating GHG emissions, and by
directly reducing the size of forests that actually break down GHG.
In addition, livestock themselves demand a huge amount of feed
and water just to survive, and not necessarily growing in output as
meat or derived products (FAO, 2006). This generates another
serious impact to the environment by draining water sources, and
requiring extra land to grow crops to feed the livestock, which
endangers and threatens biodiversity.
Globally, livestock production is the largest user of agricultural
land. On the negative side, there are environmental implications
associated with the expansion of livestock production. For example,
through the expansion of land for livestock development, sector
growth has been a prime force in deforestation in Latin America
and the Caribbean and in overgrazing in other regions. Intensive,
large-scale livestock operations, mostly in the industrial countries
but increasingly also in developing regions, are a major source of
environmental problems through effluent production. In parallel,
growth in the ruminant sector contributes to greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere through methane emissions and
nitrous oxide from the waste of grazing animals (FAO, 2013).
Livestock generates the largest emissions of GHG into the
environment from anthropogenic sources and little action is taken
to change this (FAO, 2006). All in all the demand for livestock
products increases as economies change and developing countries
prosper (Harrison, 2002). It can be concluded that to feed the world
population current livestock farming techniques and technologies
may not be enough to prevent the environmental damage that
livestock produce. This thesis will focus from among the considered
species of livestock, the cattle sector and its implications. Cattle are
further analyzed in the following chapter of this work. The objec-
tive is to answer the following questions:
1. What are the current trends on cattle environmental
management?
2. What are the technologies available and the future actions
needed improve the current scenario?
3. Methodology
3.1. Qualitative research
This research work will focus on qualitative research methods
and will include expert input through interviewing. Synthetizing
qualitative evidence has the ability to effect outcomes that are not
feasible or possible in a single study (Paterson, 2012). This means
that synthetizing qualitative data can reveal more powerful ex-
planations of a phenomena leading for a greater generalizability of
research findings often leading to increased levels of abstraction
(Sherwood, 1999). It is also important to emphasize that a synthesis
of multiple qualitative studies can also refute or revise the current
 A.R. Gallegos Rivero, T. Daim / Journal of Cleaner Production 142 (2017) 4310e4326
trends and understood concepts of certain phenomenon (Paterson,
2012).
The possible outcomes of qualitative evidence synthesis may
assist research works in exploring differences and similarities
across settings, sample populations, researcher's disciplinary,
methodological or theoretical perspectives, generate operational
models, theories, or hypothesis that can be later researched
(Thorne and Paterson, 1998). It also works to identify gaps and areas
of ambiguity in the body of research, therefore, qualitative syn-
thesis could reveal directions for future development and research
(NHS CRD, 2001). This work will first investigate a number of pri-
mary research reports, it will organize and synthetize the data into
an elaborating concept, it will involve a group of experts, and will
then re-elaborate into a synthetizing concept with the data from
reports and the input from experts. The involvement of a team of
researchers/experts, the investigation of a number of primary re-
ports, and to synthetize according to a concept, theory, or research
objective are all attributes of a qualitative research (Yager, 2006).
According to Paterson, there are several pairs of categories in which
a qualitative work can be attributed to. The categories resemble
opposing poles which depending on the attributes of a work define
the type of the work itself. The pairs are Epistemology of idealism e
Epistemology of realism; Degree of iteration: none e Degree of
iteration: extensive; Outcome theoretical e Outcome utilitarian;
and Interpretive e Aggregative (Paterson, 2012). Summarizing the
pairs, Epistemology of idealism vs realism refers to scientists
assuming whether all knowledge is constructed, or if the knowl-
edge is an observation of the world as it is (Spencer et al., 2003). The
pair related to iteration is divided where scientists using methods
as meta-study, formal grounded theory, or thematic analysis, are
iterative and circular in their process meaning they will revise their
initial decisions with the intention to find new data or to validate
the initial work (Paterson, 2012). Outcome theoretical and outcome
utilitarian are diverse in the intended purpose of the thesis work by
having one of an informative character and the other based on a
formal grounded theory producing later a middle-ranged theory to
be tested in the future (Paterson, 2012). Aggregative works treat
other findings as isolated cases, and then produce a new general
description of the phenomena studied (Paterson, 2012). Interpre-
tive works extend the aggregation of findings to produce a new
abstract model or theory of the phenomena studied (Gough and
Elbourne, 2002).
The quality of this work will be of the Aggregative method.
Further description of this qualitative synthesis method states that
the work should combine and amalgamate the research findings of
primary sources in order to produce a summary or overall
description of the phenomena under study. The concepts should be
identified in advanced, and it is not defined how the context of
primary research influences the findings, however all primary
research sources should be basically comparable in terms of
method and research question (Noblit and Hare, 1998; Estabrooks,
1994). To select a process of aggregation, this work will take the
Qualitative Assessment and Review Instrument (QARI) as the base
process used in meta-aggregation qualitative research. The QARI
method includes developing a review question, conducting a
comprehensive search, a critical appraisal of the studies selected for
retrieval, the extraction of findings, and the meta-aggregation of
these findings. The QARI is a web-based application developed to
provide a structured process for systematically reviewing qualita-
tive evidence and arriving at an evidence synthesis (Paterson,
2012). Although this work did not use the software application, it
will mimic its development structure in order to produce a quali-
tative synthesis. The development of the QARI method is charac-
terized in the following Fig. 1, this was based on a study used with
the software by the Joanna Briggs Institute on 2008 and published
4313
by Patterson in 2012:
The QARI method and the software allow for transparency, and
can actually allow others to trail the research and follow the
development, or replicate the work (Paterson, 2012). The flow of
the QARI process requires that a question be developed in which
the meta-aggregation review can be scoped in order to identify the
types of reviews already published. The scope of research should be
large enough that the parameters or characteristics of the research
can be identified. For example, Paterson refers to a healthcare
study, where the parameters considered for the development of a
question were the population/problem, the phenomena of interest,
the context, and the outcome. After considering these elements, the
question triggering the study was then formulated. Such parame-
ters are known as PICO, and are widely used in the medical sciences
research (Richardson et al., 1995). The PICO analysis for question
development will be used in this work to formulate the question in
the gap by the literature review.
There should be a critical appraisal of the studies conducted that
are chosen as part of the materials used on qualitative research. The
process of selecting the studies has different perspectives
(Paterson, 2012). One perspective says that criteria are regarded as
guides to good practice rather than as rigid requirements in
appraising papers (Spencer et al., 2003), while others argue that
having strict guidelines on criteria to choose a study may stifle the
interpretative and creative aspects of qualitative research
(Sandelowski and Barroso, 2003). Usually a transparent approach to
appraise qualitative research is well valued in qualitative research
(Paterson, 2012), and it should be sensitive to the nature of quali-
tative research and its basis in subjectivity central to its ongoing
credibility, transferability, and theoretical potential (Pearson,
2004).
The selected reports, texts, and literature will be reviewed in
order to extract the evidence needed for the synthesis. The goal of
evidence collection is to remain as close as possible to the source
material by preventing interpretation at the literature review phase
of the work. Analyzing the information from sources should pre-
sent coherent information that can be then categorized. It is
important to examine the categories in which the information is
divided as they may represent a broader scope of information with
several significant ideas, concepts, or evidence. The reason behind
examining the categories thoroughly is to find any obstacles that
the first analysis for categorization may neglect or not present as
significant at a first glimpse (Paterson, 2012). The categories in
which the findings are divided must then be synthetized. The re-
view must produce a full list of developed categories. In meta-
aggregation, a synthesized finding is defined as an overarching
description of a group of categorized findings that allow for the
generation of recommendations for practice. The synthesized
statements should define possible lines of action, and generate
more precise responses to a phenomenon (Paterson, 2012).
3.2. Expert input and interview method
Constructing the knowledge necessary to defend the thesis will
require available literature analysis and consulting experts. For this,
the ideas and models generated through the literature review will
be presented to a group of experts in interview form in order to
gather the knowledge necessary to present solutions to the prob-
lem of the thesis. According to Bogner, an expert is someone with
specialized knowledge about a topic (Bogner et al., 2014). It is also
important to define the type of knowledge that is required. The
knowledge types that are distinguishable are related to technical,
process, and interpretation knowledge. The technical knowledge
relates to data, numeric, facts, etc. This knowledge can be merely
statistical, and the questions addressed to authors may lead to
4314 A.R. Gallegos Rivero, T. Daim / Journal of Cleaner Production 142 (2017) 4310e4326
Fig. 1. QUARI method diagram.
numeric information available on printed sources. The process
knowledge comes from handling processes, interactions, organi-
zational constellations, and events that are or were related to the
topic analyzed. The last knowledge type is interpretation. It con-
tains the subjectively relevant topics, perspectives, interpretations,
trends, and explanations from experts in the topic (Bogner et al.,
2014).
Building knowledge from interviews might have different re-
sults. If the information gathered from expert interviews is of an
explorative quality, it will become an informative work. If the in-
formation can then be interpreted as process methods, facts, and
statistical information, it will then qualify as appropriate for sci-
entific research (Bogner et al., 2014). Qualitative research methods
are found to be useful in social problems, decision making prob-
lems, development and study of policies, and other subjects. This
type of research will not mean mathematical data collection in its
core work; however it is expected to show the use of graphics,
historical analysis, observation behavior, and decision-making
styles as sources of data. Qualitative analysis is more focused on
specific problems, and is often personal as compared to standard-
ized statistical analysis present in quantitative research.
Choosing interviews as a qualitative research method implies
the use of semi-structured interviews in this work because the
nature of this interview type allows for the acquisition of the
desired information. There are three different types of interviews:
unstructured, structured, and semi-structured. Unstructured
resemble a conversation where the interviewee defines the prob-
lem and states his/her opinions. Structured interviews offer options
for the answers and are specific to the topic leaving no room for
further developing the subject. Semi-structured interviews have
designed questions that are highly significant in defining the areas
explored in the problem by the interviewee, and that allow for
further questions that will enhance the information mining process
(Gill et al., 2008).
Unstructured interviews are carried as conversations with users
and other stakeholders where a general topic and an agenda exist
but no predetermined format for interview or specific question. The
objective of the unstructured interview is to gather rich, in-depth
data about the users or stakeholder's experiences without
imposing restrictions on what they can express. They usually pro-
vide direct experience with users and stakeholders. Interviewers
enjoy more flexibility in how they word questions and probe for
details than in other styles of interviews.
Structured interviews are used for obtaining general informa-
tion about demographics, behaviors, and relationships. They are
also used to assess knowledge of a subject by determining the level
of knowledge a participant has about the topic, which is good for
gathering focused information about stakeholders and their atti-
tudes towards a product. A relatively low level of training to
perform the interview is needed, and data analysis is relatively easy
since most questions have structure responses where data can be
aggregated and compared among subgroups without difficulty. It is
however a process that demands a lot of effort to create valid and
reliable structured questions and responses, and therefore requires
a solid background in questionnaire design. It is also important to
note that interviewers become less consistent as they get tired, and
they begin to anticipate or predict answers, or even use shortcuts
(Wilson, 2003).
Semi-structured interviews are used to gather facts, attitudes,
and opinions. They are also used to gather data on topics where the
interviewer is relatively certain that the relevant issues have been
identified, but still provides users with the opportunity to raise new
issues that are important to them through open-ended questions.
They are also used to gather data when behaviors cannot be
observed directly such as hazards, privacy, or other factors. Another
major purpose is to gather information about tasks, task flow, work
artifacts, forms, best practices documents, workflow diagrams,
signs, equipment, photographs, posters, and understanding user
goals (Wilson, 2003; Schuman and Presser, 1996; Dillman et al.,
2009; Schensul et al., 1999).
3.3. Model: technology roadmap
A technology roadmap or TRM is an approach for strategic
planning integrating science/technological considerations into
products and business aspects while providing a new way to
identify opportunities in achieving desired objectives from the
development of new technology. A TRM can add values to
 A.R. Gallegos Rivero, T. Daim / Journal of Cleaner Production 142 (2017) 4310e4326
organizations by linking strategy from product plans to technology
plans. It can also enable corporate/national-level technology plans,
focus on longer-term planning, improve communications and
ownership plans, and focus on planning with priority setting.
Technology road mapping can be applied to science/research,
cross-industry, industry, technology, and product-TRM's (Daim and
Oliver, 2008; Fenwick et al., 2009; Daim et al., 2012a,b). Roadmaps
outline links between tasks and priorities for actions in the near,
medium, and long term, and include metrics to allow regular
tracking of progress towards the roadmap's ultimate goals (OECD/
IEA, 2014). Using roadmaps often involves a set of roadmaps
rather than a single effort. This is done to ensure that the tech-
nology is ready when the product or effects are needed, and
managing in essence any technology that might be crucial on that
path. The set of roadmaps, is really the combined influence of
technology opportunities and market gaps, where platforms are
envisioned to support different cases reflecting a gradual transition
(Petrick, 2003).
Technology road mapping is an iterative process that fits within
the broader corporate strategy: technology and business planning.
However, there are many variations of this process. What is
considered essential for planning is to link three critical elements,
which are customer/market needs, products/services, and tech-
nologies. Once a vision is set by a corporation or institution, stra-
tegic planning involves the decisions that identify and link at a high
level the customer/market needs a company wants to address and
the products and services to selecting, and investing in the tech-
nologies to support these product and service requirements. Busi-
ness development involves planning for and implementing certain
aspects of the strategic plan, specifically those involving the
development of new products and services and/or new lines of
business (Garcia and Bray, 1997). Generating a Technology Road
map develops in six steps (Common wealth of Australia, 2001):
Identify Needs & Benefits; Identify Industry Champion & Leaders;
Identify Resource Needs and Sources; Establish Process; Develop
Roadmap; Implementation.
As a strategic communication channel about the future direction
of key issues, a good roadmap should be kept simple. It should also
include an in-depth analysis of the necessary materials available for
supporting the integration of science, technology, and business
aspects. A TRM should be process oriented in its approach because
the value of the TRM depends on the quality and credibility of the
process. It must also have a context centered presentation with
detailed information on the processes of organizational involve-
ment (Lamb et al., 2012; Amer and Daim, 2010; Katherine et al.,
2014). A TRM provides a consensus view or vision of the future of
the technology and science landscape available to decision makers
(Kostoff and Schaller, 2001; Martin and Daim, 2012). This also
aligns with models proposed by Massachusetts Institute of Tech-
nology (MIT) on technology forecasting and the families of methods
where Expert Opinion Method (EOM) includes iterative surveys,
focus groups, interviews, and participatory techniques. The other
methods are Trend Analysis, Monitoring and Intelligence Methods,
Statistical Methods, Modeling and Simulation, Scenarios, Valuing/
Decision/Economics Methods, Descriptive and Matrices Methods,
and Creativity (Firat et al., 2008). Defining the scenarios will lead to
a table where the major concerns are identified along with the
drivers with the major implications for each scenario (Amer et al.,
2016). Once built, these scenarios will then be used in the design
of the roadmap. The roadmap is developed through a diagram
where the objectives are met by setting adequate targets taking
into consideration the corresponding barriers and challenges for
each objective based on action items that are feasible with the
available resources. During the process of linking concepts, more
than one element from a previous stage may converge into a single
4315
concept in the following step. This means that concepts from the
action items could be generated by a single resource type, or several
targets may be set to achieve a single objective while confronted by
the same barriers. This is important to analyze in order to avoid
redundancies and stablish a clear visual path (Amer et al., 2016).
The following Fig. 2 shows the general development of a visual set
of roadmap components.
The purpose of setting objectives is to identify the strategic
targets of the roadmap. The people involved in the process are
meant to set the objectives and to provide feedback while defining
them. The objectives should be general concepts where the overall
commitment of the defined targets should converge. The targets
are specific and measurable, and are necessary to fulfill the more
general objectives. Defining the targets requires a Barriers and
Challenges analysis in order to properly find a feasible protocol to
achieve them. The Barriers and Challenges of targets set in a
roadmap must be prioritized on the basis on the impact to the
targets set. The barriers must be identified from the literature and
from the Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. Expert input can also contribute to
the barrier definitions. Once the Barriers and Challenges are
defined, they must be then categorized to find the field where they
are presented. These categories can be policy, capacity, technique,
institutional, or other type depending on the nature of the barriers
and procedures set by the researcher. Ranking the Barriers and
Challenges is then necessary in order to assess the impact on the
targets set. Once the ranking is defined, action items are discussed
in order to overcome the barriers and achieve the roadmap targets.
A classification of the item actions can be made as in where the
actions should take place, as in new actions, modification of pre-
vious actions, or already undertaken actions. It is also possible to
assign timelines to the proposed actions. The next step is to assign
responsibility for the actions to be taken, and to discuss the im-
plications of the actions that are proposed as result of the work. The
analysis should be the same for all the analyzed scenarios, and then
conclusions can be made (Hansen et al., 2016; Amer et al., 2016).
3.4. Research outline
The goal for this research is to generate a TRM dealing with GHG
emissions from livestock in Germany. To generate this model,
roadmaps will be created defining the current German and global
technology scenarios that address this issue and then develop the
feasibility of creating a model bonding with technology from and
strategies from different countries. Once the two scenarios are
defined, the final model will be generated as an action item for the
future practice of sustainability in cattle cultivation. In order to
define the proper problem of the thesis regarding livestock emis-
sions in Germany and around the globe, we will follow the QARI
Fig. 2. TRM concept linking diagram.
4316 A.R. Gallegos Rivero, T. Daim / Journal of Cleaner Production 142 (2017) 4310e4326
methodology previously explained in this chapter. The literature
review where the analysis for findings and gaps will be done will
have to rely on criteria defined by the researcher for selection of the
sources. This work will review literature dealing with livestock
emissions coming from credible and validated scientific-based
sources to claim their findings and statements. The works
reviewed for this thesis will have the characteristics of a report
created by official organizations such as the UN dealing with topics
as population, agriculture, livestock, environment, and coherent
topics. Other credible, and science-based sources will come from
universities conducting scientific papers and reports dealing with
livestock and emissions of GHG in Germany. Once the model
questions are established for this paper, further findings necessary
to fill the gaps should come from scientific sources in specialized
literature, considered projects where universities are involved, or
where the features of the article are proven by a methodology, or a
defined business model where the information can be accessed and
validated. Sources will be then validated by the supervisors of this
work where their criteria are also applied to the information found
in order to be considered for this work.
All findings will be categorized and analyzed in order to avoid
redundancies, and then will be augmented with expert input. To
accomplish this, the findings will be used and organized in order to
produce semi-structured interviews to be carried out with the
experts chosen for this work. This should provide the most up-to-
date and relevant information regarding livestock emissions in
the German and global scenarios. In this work, an expert, following
the definitions presented previously on this work, must have
qualifications and responsibilities coherent to the topics of this
work. Their contribution should be validated by their line of work,
and reach where their experience and knowledge takes an impor-
tant view on livestock, natural resources, German agriculture,
sustainability, technology, environmental issues, greenhouse
emissions, and related topics. Experts should mainly work in any of
those areas, and have an overall perspective about the topics. Ex-
perts considered will be government officials or deputies, as well as
scholars and university professors. With the input generated from
literature review and experts interviewed, fuzzy cognitive maps
will be generated and integrated into their corresponding sce-
narios. Once the scenarios are ready in preliminary TRM's, they will
be validated by the supervisors of this thesis in order to then be
completed. The two scenarios considered are the German approach
and the Global approach. The two TRM‘s will then be merged, and a
second review will be necessary where experts will then provide
their views and information in order to generate a best practice
purposed TRM, which is the final goal of this thesis work. The
eclectic nature of this work in the methodology will combine the
QARI approach with the Technology Road mapping methodology,
and use interviews in order to mine data from experts. This gen-
erates a unique outline for this work illustrated in the following
Fig. 3 where the process flow of this thesis can be visualized.
4. TRM: aquaponics
4.1. Objectives & target
The objectives for this technology are: Meet the demand for
cattle sustainably and profitably, protect the biosphere, and GHG
mitigation. The derived target is to transition from traditional
agriculture for cattle feed into landless and high-water efficient
production systems. Hydroponics as part of the Aquaponics
concept is defined by the Merriam-Webster online dictionary as a
method to grow plants in water rather than soil
(MerriameWebster, 2015). According to Dr. Patel, a research sci-
entist from India, in natural conditions, soil acts as a mineral
nutrient reservoir but the soil itself is not essential to plant growth.
When the mineral nutrients in the soil are dissolved in water, plant
roots are able to absorb them. When the required mineral nutrients
are introduced into a plant's water supply artificially, soil is no
longer required for the plant to thrive (Patel, 2015). Land and water
are crucial resources for cattle production and the over-exploitation
of such resources according to the literature review of this work is
detrimental to the environment risking the sustainability of cattle
farming in the current approach; hydroponics may present an
alternative for specialized production and a direct reduction on
land and water consumption.
According to the Colorado State University, the major function of
a hydroponic system is to provide freely available water to the root
system of a plant; this cannot be easily done in soils because excess
water cuts the oxygen supply, killing the roots. As soils dry out
between irrigations, plants suffer stress. With hydroponic systems,
maximum amounts of water can be supplied because pore capacity
is large and their water holding capacity is usually low. While 75%e
90% of the energy provided by sunlight is used to evaporate water
by the plant, the more light that is available the greater the
advantage for hydroponic systems, which supply water directly to
the root. This system responds better in high light density and arid
climatic regions (CSU, 1974). Theoretically, all necessary elements
for growth can be provided in full amounts, however it is difficult in
practice and it is difficult to supply a constant ratio and concen-
tration of essential elements without a high cost technology input.
Also maintaining constant ratios of acidity, tolerance to salts, light,
temperature, and other factors is difficult (CSU, 1974). Countries like
Israel have developed aquaponics systems for growing vegetables
in a combination with farming fish to provide a nutrition cycle
where the fish thrive on the oxygen created by plants while plants
consume the waste of fishes. This is done with little to no use of
fertilizers, low water consumption, and no waste. This technique
has proven feasible and economically viable for agricultural irri-
gation and commercial fish production using the limited water
from the desert regions (FAO, 2011).
4.2. Barriers
If there is no need for land, then forestry can be reduced to
produce the fodder needed to feed livestock. Cattle can receive
high-quality fodder year-round since production is done in
specialized facilities; however challenges emerge when consid-
ering the profitability of hydroponics. Hydroponics is focused on
growing fodder or greens like alfalfa if it is intended for cattle. There
have been drawbacks on the production and profitability of dairy
cows fed with hydroponic feed. In India, Dr. Patel's research showed
that for dairy cows producing about 7 L of milk per day, hydroponic
fodder is sufficient. According to the research, this is suitable for
organic farmers in low scale production (Patel, 2015). This is also
supported by recent a study on hydroponic alfalfa for cattle
farming. The study states that hydroponic fodder finds a place in
farms focusing on self-sufficiency or without the available re-
sources to use land for fodder production (UCANR, 2013). A study
done at Iowa State University used hydroponics to feed cattle for
dairy production, and determined that it is a costly method for
dairy producers, however hydroponic sprouts may have a good
application in organic, intensive, small-scale livestock with high
value outputs or in areas with high lands or where there are
different prices for feed. The study also states that research data on
dairy cows is limited in definitively determining whether or not the
feeding characteristics of the fodder impacts production or the
health of the cows enough to be worth the investment (Tranel,
2013). Beef production has also been considered, and according
to a report by Meat & Livestock Australia, supervised by the
 A.R. Gallegos Rivero, T. Daim / Journal of Cleaner Production 142 (2017) 4310e4326
Fig. 3. Research outline.
Queensland Government, feeding the cattle for commercial pur-
poses with hydroponic sprouts is not appropriate due to the high
moisture content, high cost, and scale operation. The future of
hydroponic fodder for cattle beef depends on the cost of nutrients
and the performance supplied by sprouts compared to other feeds,
and further understanding of the real cost and value of sprouts in
animal production (MLA, 2003). The current technologies used in
mixing fisheries with hydroponic vegetable production are already
in use for commercial purposes. In Germany, the commercial use of
such techniques is currently in use for human consumption in
Berlin, where a small scale aquaponics farm has opened to cus-
tomers. The challenges they face in terms of the expansion into a
larger scale operation are mostly financial, although small scale
operations are currently successful (Grosser, 2015). To produce to-
matoes and cucumbers they require fertilizer, and for a large scale
operation, this may require a substantial and sustainable resource
(Grosser, 2015).
4.3. Actions & resources
The transition from land to landless cattle feed production must
supply food for the cattle population in countries like Germany
where land-use is limited and there is a high demand for profitable
live-stock cultivation. The link with aquaponics systems and cattle
fodder is not yet established since the current projects are intended
to supply urban consumers of vegetables. Expanding into larger
scale operations requires a transition to larger areas outside urban
landscapes, where the cost per square meter reduces as the total
area increases. The technology required for automation is currently
available, and managing a 10-ha farm is similar to managing a
1000 ha one (Grosser, 2015). To supply for such a large scale
operation with fertilizer, there is also a link where urban waste
waters can be treated to obtain struvite. Berlin's aquaponics farm
water consumption is 90% less than conventional farms, and they
avoid the use of pesticides by using natural processes to control
pests. Any farm requires fertilizer to grow tomatoes and
4317
cucumbers. In order to produce their own fertilizer, they collect fish
waste and use a bioreactor to turn it into fertilizer (Grosser, 2015).
Struvite is a crystal mineral obtained from water treatment plants.
Struvite is a compound of ammonium, magnesium, and phos-
phorus. Struvite is a fine fertilizer containing elements that are
crucial for agriculture, and it has a slow solubility. Slow solubility is
advantageous to the environment if it is applied to conventional
farms because it means lower concentrations of fertilizers are
entering the soil. The minerals that are not absorbed by the plant
are then filtered into water beds contaminating them with nitrates
and other compounds. This same advantage has drawbacks for the
farming industry due to the inefficiency of water solubility in
conventional farming, where the absorption of fertilizer requires a
highly concentrated, present. While this provides an immediate
enhancement of growth, it will pollute the water beds, damage the
soil health, and eventually lead to desertification of the soil making
it economically unproductive.
One of the experts interviewed was Dr. Joachim Gerth from
Hamburg Technical University. Phosphorus obtained from the
widespread implementation of projects in Germany can lead to a
potential 20% reduction of phosphorus imports, which is a rare
element crucial for farming industry. When asked about a possible
relationship between extracting nutrients by clearing water from
contaminants and landless aquaponics systems for food produc-
tion, Dr. Gerth said for the interview that he sees a trend developing
where cities can become self-sufficient by improvising agriculture
on unexpected areas. He also sees this trend occurring in devel-
oping countries where they grow food in drums or containers. The
connection between such new approaches and landless technolo-
gies can benefit well from struvite like fertilizers, which deliver
good nutrients and are clean, and are well-fitted for a new agri-
cultural economy. As of 2015, Dr. Gerth's was still working to find
the best method to extract struvite from processed waters. This
project requires laboratories and access to municipal water treat-
ment plants making university scientists a resource for hydro-
ponics. From the analysis of the barriers, it is implied that further
4318 A.R. Gallegos Rivero, T. Daim / Journal of Cleaner Production 142 (2017) 4310e4326
research into a depuration and perfection of hydroponic techniques
is necessary for it to become economically feasible. This will require
entrepreneurs willing to invest in these projects either by
combining current aquaponics trends and fodder production, or by
determining and controlling the most efficient solutions and
compounds to produce fodder commercially. In Germany, there are
companies already focusing on this scenario by providing year-long
production of fodder for cattle. It will depend on the success and
acceptance by farmers for this technology to be further developed.
As the demand for livestock production grows, if farmers use these
techniques rather than importing grains from other continents,
which leads to further deforestation and resource scarcity, these
issues can be reduced or eliminated.
As of 2014, the European Union through the Innovative Aqua-
ponics for Professional Application (INAPRO) and the University of
Berlin is granting funds for the development of large scale aqua-
ponics facilities. This is to promote a “greener” farming technique,
but it is not focused on the urban farming trend (FVB, 2014). The
government role comes from European policies, and not necessarily
from German government. These facilities are focused on reducing
any emissions into water beds from traditional farming. The scope
of the grants is to reduce water pollution by using different tech-
niques that may actually aid preserving ecosystems, but the scope
does not refer to the soil contamination or degradation directly. The
funding and support of such methods of production is selected in
an entrepreneurial process where grants are awarded similarly to
other small entrepreneurial grants (FVB, 2014). Germany is exper-
imenting with aquaponics on large scale projects. However,
because aquaponics is not considered economically feasible or
profitable, these projects are not used in main-stream, conven-
tional farming. This implies that aquaponics used as source for
livestock fodder is not as promoted industry-wide as aquaponics
for human consumption vegetables. This link between livestock
and aquaponics is economically exploitable but not heavily pro-
moted. According to the experts, German policies promote con-
ventional farming with fertilizers and subsidies to import cattle
feed from overseas. Aquaponics has reached some industrial scale
exploitation, but the other technologies are still at a very early
stage, and there is not widespread knowledge about them within
Germany according to the experts interviewed for this paper. (See
Table 1).
5. TRM: grazing management
5.1. Objectives & target
The objectives under the scope of Grazing Management are:
Meet Demand of Cattle sustainably and Profitably, Protect the
Biosphere, Transition into Symbiotic Relationship between Cattle
Farming and Regional Ecosystem, Define a Methodology and Trends
for General Best Practices. The target that merges with these ob-
jectives is to integrate ecosystem restoration and grazing man-
agement into cattle farming.
Holistic Grazing was first proposed by Allan Savory. According to
Savory, holistic resource management is a wildlife and watershed
management technique, even where there are no livestock on the
land. It is also a method of managing livestock on the land whereby
livestock can be used to reverse desertification process very
economically with or without fencing, a method of managing
livestock on ranges or on planted pastures whereby greater pro-
duction can be achieved both from the land and the animals, and
with greater profitability than conventionally raised livestock, and
a method of making conventional range management techniques
economically sound there they were economically unsound
(Savory, 1983).
According to the Holistic Grazing Management concepts, agri-
culture in its commercial form is producing more eroding soil than
food, while also claiming that transportation and energy play an
equal if not minor role than ecosystem deterioration on GHG
emissions. The problem with ecosystem deterioration is that due to
human intervention, the cycles of the ecosystem are already broken
and by such conditions it cannot preserve its natural cycles which
support life. The Holistic Grazing perspective of this is that livestock
needs to be managed correctly in order to preserve these cycles and
thus, preserve the ecosystems (Coughlin, 2013).
Savory claims that scientifically there is no clear understanding
about the causes for desertification on the planet; however he
claims that micro-climate changes on small areas will eventually
lead to macro-climate changes. Overgrazing an area with cattle will
have an effect on the micro climate of the area, which will then
contribute to other changes in the region that could lead to
desertification due to soil deterioration. By observing nature, Savory
maintains that the reason that large herds of mammals prevailed,
such as the American bison or the African savannah wildebeests, for
so long before human interaction was because their manure was
naturally released all over their grazing area. Also, due to interac-
tion with predators, they were forced to move constantly and
therefore, fertilizing and not overgrazing, their pastures. On con-
trary, major trends in farming techniques have little movement of
cattle since without predators they are free to roam the ranges and
eventually overgraze the paddocks (TED, 2013).
If grass is not consumed and therefore no biological decay takes
place, grass turns into a woody, dead dry matter that is not
consumed by animals. Since it has not decayed, it turns into an
oxidizing process that takes long periods of time to decompose.
This process does not allow for the natural process of decay to
occur, and therefore does not allow new grass to grow during the
next year or growing season. This eventually smothers and kills the
grasses in the area, allowing for woodier vegetation to grow
clearing soil from grass, and thereby releasing carbon into the at-
mosphere. The traditional approach to battle this is to burn the
oxidizing grass to clear the soil for the new growing season, but this
process also emits high amounts of carbon by combustion into the
atmosphere, and the cleared soil also releases carbon. Following
this approach, Savory claims that desertification cannot be pre-
vented by reducing the number of grazing animals on the land or by
clearing dead grasslands with fire. Therefore, the best option is for
cattle and livestock to graze freely in an attempt to mimic natural
herd movement and grazing cycles. By using cattle in tight groups
and moving as a herd as in nature, the grass is consumed and then
turned into manure while at the same time the areas are cleared for
new grass to grow. It helps control carbon since there is organic
matter in the soil that will then nourish the roots in the soil and
retain water. This will restore health to the soil, and therefore retain
carbon and break down methane. Savory claims that an Argenti-
nian researcher applying holistic grazing methods on the Patago-
nian fields used sheep by gathering them into a massive herd of
25,000 animals, and in one year they increased land production by
50% (TED, 2013).
Another approach is to use multispecies grazing techniques. The
focus of mixing species for grazing in farming is due to the animal
preferences to eat and consume different plants and grasses. Cattle,
goat, and sheep form the usual mix. Cattle prefer grass over other
types of plants, and are less selective when grazing than sheep or
goats. Sheep and goats are more likely to eat weeds and other
herbs. Sheep will prefer forb, and goats will prefer brush and
shrubs. The result of the mix is that all plants will be eaten,
therefore controlling weed growth and brush while yielding more
pounds of gain per acre compared to single-species grazing (Correy,
2001).
 A.R. Gallegos Rivero, T. Daim / Journal of Cleaner Production 142 (2017) 4310e4326 4319

Table 1
Aquaponics TRM.

Objectives

Meet Demand of Cattle Sustainably and Profitably Protect the Biosphere GHG Mitigation

Target

Transition from traditional agriculture for cattle feed into landless and high-water efficient production systems.

Barriers

Priority Barrier Source

1 Currently only economically suitable for low scale cattle farmers. Tranel, 2013
2 Cattle fed on landless grown fodder are less productive than soil grown fed cattle. UCANR, 2013
3 Not a clear effective model to produce the best quality fodder, although theoretically possible. MLA, 2003
4 Hydroponic fodder, fruits, and vegetables may not reach the high quality of soil production Interview Dr. Otterpohl
due to the absence of humus.
5 Most effective on light intensive regions (less efficient in Germany). FAO, 2011

Actions

Period Short term Mid term Long term

Action Aquaponics (mixture between fish Aquaponics costs reduce if more area is available The use of fertilizers is necessary for aquaponics
framing and hydroponics) is proving to work on this process. If production should move production. A link between waste water
to be profitable for human consumption. into the country side, this could potentially establish management and aquaponics production must
This approach should address cattle feed. a relationship between cattle farming and be developed since efficient fertilizers and
aquaponics fodder. nutrients are recovered from municipal
waste waters.
Source Grosser, 2015 Grosser, 2015 Interview Dr. Gerth.
Action Nutrient recovery from waste waters
needs to optimize extraction from
sediment in order to be economically
feasible. This is currently being
developed (2015)
Source Interview Dr. Gerth.

Resources

Period Short Term Mid Term Long Term

Researchers Government Government

Entrepreneurs Farmers Farmers
Universities Aquaponics Suppliers Entrepreneurs

Multispecies grazing may also benefit pastures that are less
diverse by encouraging a more even grazing. Cattle will tend to
graze taller grasses that sheep may reject, and it has also been
shown that sheep graze near cattle manure deposits, which cattle
avoid, which results in a more even use of pasture. Economically,
this means a better resource usage and more meat production to
sell. Multispecies grazing techniques also have an advantage on
intoxication threats by ingesting poisonous plants. Some will affect
cattle while not goat and sheep and vice versa. This is similar to
parasites where the larvae of parasites from cattle will be ingested
by goats and sheep, which do not host the larvae and are not
affected by it. The same thing happens from goats to sheep where
cattle will ingest the larvae but it will not be affected by them.
However, parasites can be shared by goats and sheep, in which case
may require special attention (Correy, 2001).
5.2. Barriers
Allan Savory's work and the general ideas of the holistic
approach on farming have been openly criticized by the scientific
community. The basic claim is that there is no true correlation with
the technique implementations and the improvement of soil in the
area where the grazing occurs. Scientific research also has shown
contradicting evidence to what it is claimed by Savory as advan-
tages of gathering large herds. This for example is reflected by the
trampling effect on soil, while Savory claims it benefits the grass
growing cycle by offering a place for seeds to develop and receive
water retention, scientific studies show that large herd's trampling
effect compacts land avoiding water to enter the soil (Briske et al.,
2011).
A study by the University of Arizona states that claims of suc-
cessful holistic management by cattle farmers on the border of the
United States and Mexico was due to an increase in rainfall, and not
through cattle management techniques. This was also observed in
African territories where after a heavy rainfall there was for a
period of time improved farming output. However, both North
American and African continents entered drought periods on sub-
sequent years and did not see a true benefit from changing their
cattle management to holistic approaches (Holechek et al., 1999).
The same study from the University of Arizona found that short-
duration grazing may facilitate an improved management of live-
stock, giving ranchers more control over how specific parts of their
ranch are grazed than continuous grazing, therefore increasing
output and yield but not necessarily improving health conditions.
The study suggested that such techniques could be useful for some
ranches in some areas if applied at moderate to conservative
stocking rates to allow recovery from chronic grazing. The study,
however, suggested further research to take place and questioned
the government endorsement of holistic grazing management
(Holechek et al., 1999).
Further barriers into the methodology come from practical
implementation. Although the projects considered for this thesis all
claimed to be successful in economic revenue and ecosystem
restoration, empirical data varied considerably from one farm to
another. In Chihuaha, Mexico, ranchers facing bankruptcy turned to
holistic grazing methodology and quickly recovered. The ranchers
where supported by local authorities, they were given broader land
to work with under the condition that they would attend seminars
4320 A.R. Gallegos Rivero, T. Daim / Journal of Cleaner Production 142 (2017) 4310e4326
and training provided by the government with holistic approaches
under contract. The results according to the rate of production were
a success since cattle farmers reported profits in subsequent years,
and increased their cattle population by restoring soil health to the
grasslands of the Mexican Chihuahuense Desert. Nevertheless in
the implementation of the holistic approach, they used 10 ha per
animal maintaining that it was not the amount of animals that
determined success rather it was the amount of time the cattle
spent grazing on a paddock (Díaz, 2013).
A farm in Ontario, Canada implemented the holistic approach,
and used 0.65 ha per animal. They reported soil health improve-
ment and profitability. While the area was considerably reduced,
this seemed to not to have affected productivity and the farm
improved its conditions. Intensive fence use is necessary when
there is reduced land for cattle, and where there is a need to
concentrate cattle on a paddock without allowing them to step and
trample other paddocks of grass. (Slomp, 2013). This led to a
planning and scheduling problem for the Ontario farm. There were
also complications on water distribution for cattle since the farm
reported having to build a path for cattle to access water without
compromising paddocks not yet programmed for grazing. The
building and rebuilding of the fence implies complications and
costs since the fences are electric in order to prevent cattle from
bending them or trampling over (Slomp, 2013).
Similar problems are found if farmers opt for multispecies
grazing techniques. Fencing is widely used since it's considered
economic and convenient, however containing varied species re-
quires a bigger input of materials and design than containing a
single species. Predators are also considered a threat and although
some may turn away in the presence of cattle, some others might
not stop without additional support from guardians or sturdier
fences. Farmers also may have problems adapting to a multispecies
herd, specific needs and behaviors require different skills on
different species (Correy, 2001).
Optimization is also a problem when dealing with water supply
for animals in multispecies farming. Cattle tend to stay close to the
water sources and therefore manure spreads near water sources.
Having important areas without the organic fertilizer, farmers
opted for using hoses and containers with constant relocation to
supply water to the herds. Rates between land and herd are not
defined and depend on the empirical practice of the farmers, and
also rates from species to species; while some suggest a single
sheep per cattle head, others suggest two sheep per cattle, all based
on the numbers that worked in their particular farms and on a trial
an error perspective (Brann, 2013).
Lack of scientific support has not deterred governments from
supporting this approach to cattle farming, however variations
from farm to farm, regions, climates, and several other factors have
produce skepticism among farmers. And there is a growing trend
by the scientific community driven by the deterioration of soils by
the use of agrochemical production methods to reject this type of
farming. These statements are supported by Dr. Otterpohl, who was
interviewed for this thesis. While Dr. Gerth suggest that a barrier to
overcome is the unwillingness of farmers to accept advice from
non-farmers. In other parts of the world, such as Mexico, where
even with government supported campaigns, farmers only showed
a positive attitude to a transition when fellow farmers endorsed
and showed proof of the benefits of adopting holistic approaches
(Cortes, 2014).
A major drawback into the transition from industrial to organic
farming is the productivity decrease. Organic dairy cows produce
about 7 L of milk per day while industrial dairy cows produce 30 L.
Beef production of cattle for organic animals requires one year
producing the same amount of meat that industrial cows produce
in ninety to one hundred twenty days, thus, organic beef costs
more. Although organic meat is healthier than industrial meat and
of a higher quality, consumers are used to the taste and prices of
industrial meat, placing the organic meat into a higher price cate-
gory because it is not as widely consumed (Díaz, 2013).
The implementation of holistic grazing methods may seem like
a viable option to restore grasslands; however other ecosystems
may not be protected from deforestation and transformation into
grasslands if holistic grazing thrives. The Loess Plateau in China was
one of the largest projects in ecosystem restoration and soil
improvement ever done. The Loess Plateau was restored by an
intensive management program where areas were destined only to
be reforested while others were destined to agriculture. Livestock
were forced into containment, and were fed in pens without access
to the outer areas since this would be not be conducive to the
restoration of the ecosystem, which resembles that of a forest and
not of grassland (Liu, 2005). This suggests that livestock presence
on recovering ecosystems may hinder the restoration and preser-
vation of natural flora and fauna. The Loess Plateau has a forest
environment, not a grassland one. Similarly, the forests of Yosemite
made significant recovery where grasslands were thriving. This was
due to the re-introduction of wolves into the ecosystem, which
were previously absent. The presence of free-roaming deer on
higher grass lands, which were previously forests, had deteriorated
the soil and water bodies of the park, however by the addition of
wolves, the territories of the deer narrowed to lower grasslands
allowing the overgrazed higher areas to restore to their previous
status increasing the population of trees and other flora species.
This then led to the return of previously absent animal species
ranging from eagles to bears (Agnos, 2014). This also suggests that
while grazing management techniques may eventually prove sus-
tainable for cattle farming, the threat of deforestation and trans-
formation is still not addressed, even when the optimal ratios and
schedules for cattle and grasslands are found, rising population and
rising cattle demand may still compromise forests and other
ecosystems.
5.3. Actions & resources
From the barriers analysis the main concepts that must be
addressed by future technologies and practices in cattle farming are
to collect data validating the success of an economically and sus-
tainable farming model. The significant variations between farms
applying this method and the constant failure of others where
success was expected may actually come from an irregular under-
standing of the concepts not due to the theory misinterpretation,
but from the implementation phase of the management solutions.
In addition, optimization is a crucial part for this management
approaches for cattle. Designing the path to use, scheduling and
programming grass production, and guaranteeing access to min-
erals and water area all limitations that can be addressed by soft-
ware solutions. Software available for cattle farming concentrates
on the production of the cows and not in the management of the
grass production and land health. The current approach may have a
concept of managing grass by assigning cattle the paddock from
which they are supposed to graze, but they do not determine size of
the paddock, the ratio from cow to land, the ratio between species,
nor the most effective route that guarantees a total area coverage
without compromising paddocks along with the distribution of
water.
Computer Aided Design (CAD) technologies must be considered
as an option for designing the best route, paddock distribution, and
fencing for holistic approaches. If the farm area is introduced into
software than can then by scheduling and optimization algorithms
determine the best distribution, then it can also provide the
cheapest and most effective fencing patterns, where to place the
 A.R. Gallegos Rivero, T. Daim / Journal of Cleaner Production 142 (2017) 4310e4326
water sources, or the most effective path to water bodies. Current
holistic grazing management sites offer worksheets to aid in plan-
ning, and in tracking the progress from the implementation of the
methodology, but they are limited to tracking the empirical practice
of the farmer. The farmer might experiment based on this analysis,
and then may decide to stay with a model which may seem to be the
most efficient when in fact it could be improved. Ways to enhance
this could come by data collection from users, and then by statistical
processes determining the trends and effectiveness of management
models in different regions due to variations in geographical con-
ditions. This would then show the most effective land to cattle ra-
tios, species to species ratios, scheduling, forecasting, and several
other statistics. This can show the gaps that need to be addressed
through farm management and track soil restoration as cattle
farming thrives optimizing resources and profit.
A major barrier considered is to change the mindset of
consuming and farming. While consumers often do not make a
connection with the environmental implications of their consuming
habits, profits will set trends and farmers will then remain trapped
in the marketing strategies of agrochemical industries producing
food while deteriorating the ecosystems. If farmers were to see the
benefits of successfully implementing grazing management meth-
odologies, the need for industrial fertilizers would reduce signifi-
cantly. Cattle would fertilize their own fields, and soil health would
improve causing a subsequent improvement of the ecosystem while
generating profit for the farmer. This can be changed through ed-
ucation of the methods and evidence from farmer to farmer. One of
the main reasons that farmers in the U.S. turned into a new
approach of grazing management was the severity of their situa-
tion. On the verge of bankruptcy, they turned into a new method
with the aid of the U.S. government. A similar situation happened in
Mexico where government support was the main driver for farmers
to turn to these grazing methodologies. For cattle farming, sus-
tainability regulations and laws determine the national practices
and regulations. Government involvement is crucial. The main re-
sources for this approach are farmers and governments. This link
has been well established in other countries. The government may
provide the education and training, even land for grazing and
restoration, but the farmers will definitely provide the credibility
through economic success. The German situation is not as bad as
the situation in other countries, and this could be a reason why the
adoption and assimilation of grazing methodologies is not wide-
spread while the existing one lacks the success that would attract
interest form other farmers.
Software developers and entrepreneurs addressing this oppor-
tunity to provide farmers with an optimizing tool are also neces-
sary. For such a large data collection, tracking and further
development requires a considerable amount of time where
funding will be needed, but if the approach is correct and suc-
cessful, revenues should be significant. It is also necessary to do this
in order to tackle scientific skepticism and reassess the validity of
such methods by correlating an organic management system with
financial recovery and soil restoration.
Opportunities rise for an eclectic technological involvement.
There are projects currently assigned to other fields not necessarily
related to cattle farming, but which could boost the potential
impact of managing systems. Dr. Ralf Otterpohl who was inter-
viewed for this research, refers to satellite tracking for herds, to
evaluate the land conditions, and to assess the profitability the
investment. Fencing could transition into acoustic methods with
portable devices rather than electrical fences with technologies
used for crowd control in urban demonstrations such as long range
acoustic devices. An eclectic approach from diverse fields origi-
nated holistic grazing management methods; a similar approach
may prove beneficial to enhance grazing management with
4321
technology. Further research and technology involvement from
universities may lead to a focus on ecosystem restoration and not
just farming management. Dr. Otterpohl firmly believes that in
order to achieve cattle farming sustainability we must transition
from cattle farming into ecosystem management. This will require
for new generation of students focusing on a symbiotic relationship
between cattle and the environment rather than optimizing profits
on soil deteriorating farming practices. (See Table 2).
German policies come as indirect aid to the soil erosion control
and sustainability in farming. This is due to the fact that policies
control the emissions to water beds and fertilizer use on the soils to
reduce nitrogen concentrations rather than to actually prevent
erosion. Although not directly in the path of sustainability, envi-
ronmental efforts are present to reduce the impact of the conven-
tional farming. Experts also suggested that along with the Hamburg
University of Technology and a few other institutions, little research
has been done on the effectiveness of holistic grazing into soil
restoration; however water waste management institutions pro-
mote policies for a less polluted watery usage in agriculture. The
role of the German government takes a larger role in subsidizing
farmers who use conventional techniques rather than on sustain-
able practices or alternative methods such as holistic grazing or
permaculture. According to the experts, efforts come from in-
dividuals rather than government practices. In countries like
Mexico or the U.S., local governments support farmers who are
working on deteriorated lands, but are willing to cooperate and
assimilate the techniques provided by the government officials
regarding grazing management. Farmers who turn to these
methods are often in financial crisis. This alternative however is not
present in Germany, where grazing management has not seen
major support from Government institutions.
6. TRM: capture CH 4
6.1. Objectives & target
The objectives for addressing the capture of CH4 for this work
are: Protect the biosphere, GHG mitigation, and define a method-
ology and trends for general best practices. The target of these
objectives is to develop a device and/or method to control cattle
emissions. Literature review of this work implies that CH4 emis-
sions from enteric fermentation represent the major challenge of
GHG emissions from cattle. This reaction takes place during the
digestive process of ruminants, and can generate nearly 300 hun-
dred liters of methane per animal per day. The emissions are so
intense that the insides of barns in Germany have exploded due to
methane concentrations and static electricity (BBC, 2014). Litera-
ture review also shows that this problem, specifically from cattle
fermentation, has received very little attention with the aim to
control it.
In Argentina, research from the Insituto Nacional de Tecnología
Agropecuaria (INTA) was able to capture enteric fermentation gas-
ses from a cow's rumen and extract about 300 hundred liters of
methane per day. This was done with a 2 mm in diameter needle
directly inserted into the animal's rumen. The gas was then stored in
a plastic bag mounted on the animal in a backpack fashion. The bag
weighed nearly 500 g. The gas was then compressed and filtered
with chemical processes until 95% pure methane was extracted.
According to the scientists, the methane extracted from a single
animal can power a refrigerator with a 100 L capacity working from
two to six degrees for a full day. It can also be compressed and used
to fuel a compact car for nearly 1 km with the gas produced by a
single animal in one day. The project is not intended to compete
with energy suppliers, but it is meant as a sustainable and renew-
able way to have remote farms access to energy (INTA, 2013).
4322 A.R. Gallegos Rivero, T. Daim / Journal of Cleaner Production 142 (2017) 4310e4326

Table 2
Grazing management TRM.

Objectives

Meet demand of cattle sustainably Protect the GHG Transition into symbiotic relationship between cattle Define a methodology and trends for
and profitably biosphere mitigation farming and regional ecosystem general best practices

Target

Integrate ecosystem restoration and grazing management into cattle farming.

Barriers

Priority Barrier Source

1 Transition into organic farming significantly reduces cattle output in diary and beef. Díaz, 2013
2 Government endorsement is challenged by scientists. Holechek et al., 1999
3 High discrepancy among results depending on region and farm conditions. Díaz, 2013, Slomp, 2013
4 Farmer skepticism to non-farmer advice. s, 2014
Interview Dr. Gerth; Corte
5 Fence intensive. Slomp, 2013; Correy 2001
6 Paddock 0ptimization challenging. Slomp, 2013; Correy 2001
7 Water optimization challenging. Brann 2013
8 Scientific research shows correlation to rain and not to management techniques. Holechek et al., 1999
9 Scientific community skepticism. Briske et al., 2011
10 No specified ratios for cattle and land proportions nor species mixing. Correy, 2001; Brann, 2013
11 Mixing species may be problematic for farmers. Correy, 2001
12 Although it could improve grasslands by cattle presence, other ecosystems are not necessarily improved and preserved Liu, 2005; Agnos, 2014
by holistic grazing methodology.

Actions

Period Short term Mid term Long term

Action Create conscience about links between Change mindset of farmers through example of successful Evolve from cattle farming into ecosystem
consumers and farmers. implementations. management by educating future generations of
students and farmers
Source Interview Dr. Otterpohl Interview Dr. Otterpohl Interview Dr. Otterpohl
Government should take a major role Develop software for optimizing farming grazing area design and
into this transition, such as in the USA or scheduling.
Mexico.
Source Interview Dr. Otterpohl Slomp, 2013; Díaz, 2013; Brann, 2013; Correy, 2001; Interview Dr.
Otterpohl, Interview Dr. Gerth.
Enhance farming management with Use an eclectic approach from technology to ease the needs of
CAD and monitoring technologies grazing management such as constant expensive fencing replaced
(satellite tracking) by acoustic systems.
Interview Dr. Otterpohl Slomp, 2013; Díaz, 2013; Brann, 2013; Correy, 2001; Interview Dr.
Otterpohl, Interview Dr. Gerth.

Resources

Period Short term Mid term Long term

Researchers Government Government

Entrepreneurs Farmers Farmers
Universities Software Developers Entrepreneurs
Information Technologies Entrepreneurs Information Technologies
Government
Farmers

According to Mr. Thomas Voss, who at the time of the interview
for this research was a scientific researcher at Technical University
of Hamburg, the main advantage of CH4 from bioreactors is the
transportability of the energy through compressing and tubing the
gas. Voss worked on projects related to energy generation from
biomass from waste waters and farming waste. When asked about
the role of cattle in CH4 production, Voss stated that manure cannot
be utilized as a main source for bio digesters and generating biogas.
Voss noted that a cheap and efficient way to control CH4 emissions
on industrial farms is by using bio filters. Bio filters oxidize
methane, and the result of this reaction is water andCO2 . Literature
review in this work states that CH4 represents a bigger threat than
CO2 as a GHG.
6.2. Barriers
There are no projects addressing the capture of methane from
enteric fermentation other than the suggested method by the INTA
of Argentina. The characteristic of this project is that it requires a
chirurgical procedure to insert the needle into the animal and then
the infrastructure and equipment to collect, compress, and trans-
port the gas. During his interview for this work, Voss claimed that
the major barrier for this project is the financing to support the
infrastructure that would allow the farmer to equip all of his/her
cattle, and collect the gas from the animals. This is also an efficient
method depending on the conditions of how it is carried out, and
therefore the economic viability may not be yet feasible without
further research on the topic. Industrial bio digesters are used on
equipped farms, and may not control the emissions of grazing cattle
outside the barn. This means that their use is limited to the
confined industrial cattle, and not to the majority of animals used
for beef and dairy production in developing countries and small
scale organic farms. Cattle emissions can be addressed by control-
ling cattle feed composition according to the literature review
analyzing cattle in this work However due to an increased demand
for cattle products, and the trend to maximize output of industrial
cattle for dairy or beef, it is unlikely that there will be a change in
the animal feed favoring emissions at cost of the production output.
 A.R. Gallegos Rivero, T. Daim / Journal of Cleaner Production 142 (2017) 4310e4326
Table 3
Capture CH 4 TRM.
Objectives
Define a methodology and trends for general best practices
Target
Develop a device/method to control enteric fermentation emissions.
Barriers
Priority Barrier
1 13 million cows in Germany
2 90% of cattle population pastures in open farmland.
3 No current project addressing free roaming cattle other than INTA CH4 collection
4 Chirurgical procedure
5 Rising demand for cattle represents a higher productivity per animal increasing emissions, or to meet
demand cattle may increase population if not productivity per animal.
6 Current bio-filters only operate on closed barns.
Actions
Period Short term Mid term
Action Authorities must address this A cost efficient and practical method to collect
CH4 source. methane from livestock should be developed
parting from Argentinian model.
Appun, 2015 INTA, 2013
Resources
Period Short term Mid term
Government Entrepreneurs
Farmers
Researchers
6.3. Actions & resources
There is no device/method to control emissions from enteric
fermentation on cattle, and bio filters are meant for industrialized
cattle farming. Following the concept of extracting the gas directly
from the rumen of the animal, a bio filter could be designed to
oxidize methane directly from the animal without risking the an-
imal's health. According to the INTA scientists, animals with the
extraction system do not suffer and have life spans no different to
those animals without the device. Following the path of the INTA
method by capturing ruminants' methane could also provide an
alternative for developing countries where the major source of
energy comes from forestry in rural areas. It is necessary to address
this GHG source since the emissions of cattle tends to rise along
with productivity, and global trends show an increase in the de-
mand for cattle products. In the near future a method to address
this should be developed.
A study is needed to assess the viability of economic benefit
from capturing methane emissions. This should come from scien-
tists involved in the project or entrepreneurs and farmers trying to
reduce their energy costs through using cattle. This is something
that could have significant potential since cattle in Germany alone
has risen to nearly thirteen million animals. Following the state-
ments from INTA, this amount of animals supplies the energy for
thirteen million appliances daily, such as 100 L refrigerators.
Developing a portable bio-filter should be carried out by scientists
with the guarantee that it would have no ill effects on the animals.
The implementation of this method as a requirement for cattle
cultivation should come from the regulations established to control
emissions by regulating authorities. A major drawback is the
financing of such a large scale project, but it could considerably
reduce the impact of cattle emissions into the environment.
In Germany, methane emission control from free ranging cattle
has not been addressed. However, the approach is regulated from a
policy perspective on closed or landless cattle farming where bio
4323
Protect the biosphere GHG mitigation
Source
German Livestock, 2015
FAO, 2013
INTA, 2013
INTA, 2013
Jesko et al., 2008
Interview Mr. Voss
Long term
A bio filter model can replace gas collection device,
and oxidize methane without harming or
endangering the animal.
Long term
Government
Farmers
Entrepreneurs
filters are used to oxidize methane and reduce it to carbon dioxide.
Government influence is based on the industrial aspects of live-
stock farming; this means that methane control is not applied due
to environmental policies, but due to safety policies because of the
volatility of the gas when confined and exposed to static electricity.
According to the experts, efforts to control methane on open fields
are non-existent in the country. (See Table 3).
7. Conclusions and future work
Germany is not on the cutting edge of cattle farming sustain-
ability. According to Dr. Otterpohl, there is a considerable similarity
with the American scenario; however the current situation is not as
urgent as the one in the U.S. Therefore, German farmers are not
motivated to try different farming techniques other than those
involving the agrochemical industries. Some farmers involved with
holistic approaches in Germany may not be as successful as com-
mercial farmers, and cannot demonstrate the feasibility and prof-
itability of transitioning to more organic farming methods. It is also
important to note that German regulations play an important role
in the decisions and methods of farmers. For example, per Mr. Voss
and Dr. Otterpohl, biomass energy is not a good energy source. This
is where government participation plays a major role. In many
countries, the transition into organic farming has relied heavily on
the relationship between the government and the farmers,
whereas in Germany, authorities have not yet considered a sus-
tainable approach to cattle farming, and still do not regulate the
impact on the biosphere by German cattle farming.
On another level, the sense of sustainability, self-sufficiency, and
eventual financial breakdown of farmers, can push the movement
from heavy agrochemical farming into holistic approaches. Both Dr.
Gerth and Dr. Otterpohl support the idea of a successful holistic
approach for German famers, where the German scenario will
eventually mimic those of the Netherlands or Israel where landless
agriculture plays a very important role. A very strong reason to
4324 A.R. Gallegos Rivero, T. Daim / Journal of Cleaner Production 142 (2017) 4310e4326
Fig. 4. Prioritization framework.
believe that such technologies will play a major role in the near
future is that the demand for cattle products is so high that farmers
will look for cheap and fast solutions for their feed needs. The fact
that Germany has such a low amount of arable land still available,
and that cattle already takes a huge share from the currently
available land, will also boost the adoption of other methods to
generate fodder. Landless methods of agriculture will never replace
traditional methods for producing fodder or feed grains; however
they can help to sustain the transition from industrial farming into
organic one by supplying in a more water in a more efficient way.
The food supply of Germany may feel a boost in urban production
by not relying entirely on rural production, thereby reducing the
rate of deforestation and land transformation until a proper balance
in farming and biosphere preservation is reached.
Methane emissions represent one of the most risky threats from
livestock cultivation, and capturing methane from animals has not
been fully engaged by sustainable approaches. However, the impact
from nitrates in water and atmosphere may be considerably
reduced if soil health is sustained and restored. Natural cycles
would be preserved and we could finally start gaining ground in the
battle for sustainability. A better understanding of technology is
always necessary, however, in this case, although technology is
quickly progressing and evolving it may be more important to
enhance nature-imitating processes with already available tools
and technology than replacing them by isolating the phases of the
current ways of livestock production.
A future study can prioritize available technologies to optimize
the resources available. Such applications can be found among
technology assessment methods as outlined by Tran and Daim
(2008). One such approach is the hierarchical decision modeling,
which is a version of the analytical hierarchical process. This pro-
cess is applied heavily in areas related to sustainability and cleaner
production: wind power (Daim et al., 2014); energy efficiency (Iskin
and Daim, 2016; van Blommestein and Daim, 2013); data center site
selection (Daim et al., 2013); energy storage (Daim T et al., 2012a,b);
energy alternatives (Amer and Daim, 2011; Wang et al., 2010; Daim
and Cowan, 2010); powertrain technologies (Daim et al., 2011). A
sample framework is provided in Fig. 4.
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