Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1
Motivation for allocating load
Facts
• In transmission systems, load forecasting is pretty accurate (law of large numbers)
• In distribution systems, load exhibits higher variability
Problem
• Study variations of individual and aggregate loads, in particular their max values
Why?
• To size equipment (transformers) and study voltage drops
2
Individual customer load
• Demand: load (kW, kVA, kVAR, A) averaged over a time period (e.g., 15 min)
XT
1
• Average demand d˜n := dn,t example : d˜1 = 2.46 kW
T t=1
<latexit sha1_base64="x5wsFQ0W8L/+Y6tVMcASJ9ZBy9I=">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</latexit>
<latexit sha1_base64="rpgqjKcwJotPZ2A11WoCQRci+Ao=">AAACA3icZVBNS8QwEE39dv2qevRgcBE8LEsrgiIIghePCq4u2FLSNLsbTNKSTMWl9Li/Zm+iR3+CP8B/Y7rbg+sOhHl5M5PJe3EmuAHP+3EWFpeWV1bX1hsbm1vbO+7u3qNJc01Zh6Yi1d2YGCa4Yh3gIFg304zIWLCn+OWmqj+9Mm14qh5gmLFQkr7iPU4JWCpyD4OY6CIpI3V5FUjyFhVQ4qBIokK1oAzKyG16bW8SeB74NWiiOu4i9ztIUppLpoAKYsyz72UQFkQDp4KVjSA3LCP0hfTZs4WKSGbCYiKkxMeWSXAv1fYowBP270RBpJEEBi2bzVDGVYaBbPWZqq72gapqZpdA7yIsuMpyYIpOd/RygSHFlSE44ZpREEMLCNXcfhPTAdGEgrWtYfX7/9XOg8fTtu+1/fuz5rVfO7GGDtAROkE+OkfX6BbdoQ6iaITG6AN9OiNn7Lw7H9PWBaee2Ucz4Xz9AqoamBM=</latexit>
d˜n
• Load factor LFn := ¯ 1 [why?]
dn
d˜1 2.46 kW
example : LF1 = ¯ = = 0.40
d1 6.19 kW
• Demand factor
maximum customer demand 6.19 kW
Demand factor := = = 0.18 1
sum of device ratings 35 kW
percentage of electrical devices that are on when maximum demand occurs
Characterized load for one customer. How about aggregated load in a distribution
transformer serving 5-50 customers?
5
Load surveys
• We are metering energy monthly (billing); but do not know user maximum
• Interested in maxima to determine transformer ratings
• Install meters over some customers and use linear regression to find a linear
transformation between energy consumption and maximum demand
6
Customer #1
Load at distribution transformer
Customer #2
Customer #3
7
Load duration curve
8
Maximum demand for load aggregations
dˆ dˆ
• Diversity factor DF := ¯ 1 [why?] example : DF = ¯ = 1.55
d d
9
Diversity factors
• Maximum diversified demand is hard to measure
DFN
N 10
Recap
1. For each customer, either directly meter max demand d¯n , or use linear
regression from customer’s total demand d˜n
<latexit sha1_base64="k0uaCk9VoaLCVEXWuU4+98+QzvE=">AAAB63icZVBNSwMxEM3Wr1q/qh69LBbBQym7Iuix4MVjBfsh7VKy2WkbmmSXZFYoS39Fb1KP/hx/gP/GbLsHax+EeXmTycybMBHcoOf9OKWd3b39g/Jh5ej45PSsen7RMXGqGbRZLGLdC6kBwRW0kaOAXqKBylBAN5w+5fnuO2jDY/WKswQCSceKjzijaKW3QUh1Fs2HaliteQ1vBXeb+AWpkQKtYfV7EMUslaCQCWpM3/cSDDKqkTMB88ogNZBQNqVj6FuqqAQTZKuB5+6NVSJ3FGt7FLor9W9FRqWRFCd1G81MhnnEiayPQeVX+0GeNZtNcPQYZFwlKYJi6x6jVLgYu7lxN+IaGIqZJZRpbsd02YRqytCup2L9+//dbpPOXcP3Gv7Lfa3pF5sokytyTW6JTx5IkzyTFmkTRiRZkCX5dKSzcD6c5fppySlqLskGnK9fp0yOiQ==</latexit>
<latexit sha1_base64="b8ovXiyISZXm+r08DQ+dGBuV8Fs=">AAAB7XicZVBNSwMxEM36WetX1aOXxSJ4KGVXBD0WvHisYD+gXUo2O9uGZpMlmRXK0p/Rm9Sjv8Yf4L8x2+7B2gdhXt5kMvMmTAU36Hk/zs7u3v7BYeWoenxyenZeu7jsGpVpBh2mhNL9kBoQXEIHOQropxpoEgrohdPnIt97B224km84SyFI6FjymDOKVhoMkYsI8mg+kqNa3Wt6K7jbxC9JnZRoj2rfw0ixLAGJTFBjBr6XYpBTjZwJmFeHmYGUsikdw8BSSRMwQb4aee7eWiVyY6Xtkeiu1L8VOU1MQnHSsNHMkrCIOEkaY5DF1X5QZM1mE4yfgpzLNEOQbN0jzoSLyi2suxHXwFDMLKFMczumyyZUU4Z2QVXr3//vdpt075u+1/RfH+otv9xEhVyTG3JHfPJIWuSFtEmHMKLIgizJp6OchfPhLNdPd5yy5opswPn6BUQYj3o=</latexit>
¯N dˆN
d =
DFN
<latexit sha1_base64="zQ9ZxLKpM6CL56rRDawxo7FwU88=">AAACC3icZVDLSsNAFJ3UV62vqks3wSK6KCURQTeCoIirUsE+wNQymd60g5NJmLkRS8gn9Gu6k7p06Qf4N07aLnxcGO65586dO+f4seAaHefLKiwtr6yuFddLG5tb2zvl3b2WjhLFoMkiEamOTzUILqGJHAV0YgU09AW0/efrvN9+AaV5JB9wFEM3pAPJA84oGqpXPvZ8qtJ+9lS/9AJFWeoNKc7qLPUQXjG9uc169axXrjg1Zxb2f+AuQIUsotErf3r9iCUhSGSCav3oOjF2U6qQMwFZyUs0xJQ90wE8GihpCLqbzgRl9pFh+nYQKXMk2jP250RKQx1SHFZN1qPQzzMOw+oAZF6aB/Ku/r0Eg4tuymWcIEg23xEkwsbIzo2x+1wBQzEygDLFzTdtNqTGEjT2lYx+96/a/6B1WnOdmnt/VrlyF04UyQE5JCfEJefkityRBmkSRsZkQqbk3RpbE+vNms6vFqzFzD75FdbHN3cWm9s=</latexit>
11
Load allocation using diversity factors
Example 2.1: Analyze a single-phase lateral.
Given: a) monthly energy usage per customer; assume 0.9 PF lagging
b) load survey shows that d¯n = 0.2 + 0.008 · Monthly energy [kWh]
c) diversity factors (see graph on previous slide)
Wanted: max diversified demand for each transformer and line segment
Transformer ratings:
T1: 25 kVA
T2: 37.5 kVA
T3: 50 kVA
KCL load does not apply with max aggregated (real or apparent) powers!
12
Voltage drop using diversity factors
Example: Find voltage at each transformer assuming VN1=2.4 kV
13
Transformer load management
• The method of diversity factors requires knowing
d1) DFN’s for different N
d2) customer maxima; and
d3) customer assignment to transformers
• Training stage
- Collect historical data from transformers
- Fit a linear regression model fitting monthly energy served to peak demand
• Operational stage
- Knowing d3) and customer bills, find total energy to be served
- Using the trained model, predict max demand
14
Allocation factors
kVATk
d¯Tk = d¯feeder ⇥ P allocation factor
m kVATm
15
Voltage drop using allocation factors
Example: Find voltage at each transformer using allocation factors
• Due to linearity of allocation factors, KCL now holds for line segments
Does this method yield the actual quantities assuming demands are correct?
16
Feeder load
• Smoother demand curve
• Define statistics similar to transformers (maximum diversified demand)
17
Summary
• Allocate load to size transformer and study voltage drops
linear
X DFN
• Method 1: diversity factors d˜n ! d¯n ! dˆTk = d¯n ! d¯Tk
regression
<latexit sha1_base64="FkLtPCQU0gUYFJ0fQENKHqZPZzA=">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</latexit>
n2Tk
X linear
• Method 2: transformer load management d˜n ! d˜n ! d¯Tk
regression
<latexit sha1_base64="0pJTaMv4pebYGXcWUCJo7nfRfio=">AAACyHicdVFdb9MwFHXCgFG+uvHIi0WFhNBUJWMSPE7iBfE0pHWbVFeR49ymVh072DfdKisv/BD+F/8GpylSC+NKlo/O/TjXx3mtpMMk+RXFDw4ePnp8+GTw9NnzFy+HR8dXzjRWwEQYZexNzh0oqWGCEhXc1BZ4lSu4zpefu/z1CqyTRl/iuoZZxUst51JwDFQ2/MlQqgJ80WaafW94QZkyurSyXCC31tzSDTtgrqkyr5nU9DJbtjtdA9boIigAeoZwh95CacF1im3rmVnt5ro1ue34fZW27XUoZTm33VzfyQyy4SgdJ5ugyT/gT2pEtnGRHUXHrDCiqUCjUNy5aZrUOPPcohQK2rCtg5qLJS9hGqDmFbiZ3xjZ0reBKejc2HA00g17b8dJsZK166FblT1AHlyf+bt+2G6f55Vz6yo/KUF3d1CqOC7c3zUdeV9u2uD808xLXTcIWvSLzhtF0dDuV2khLQhU6wC4sDK8lYoFt1xgcH/Pxf+Dq9NxmozTb2ej83Tr5yF5Td6QdyQlH8k5+UIuyISI6CB6H32IzuKvcR3fxuu+NI62Pa/IXsQ/fgOisOO1</latexit>
n2Tk
kVATk
• Method 3: allocation factors d¯Tk = P d¯feeder
m kVATm
<latexit sha1_base64="qRIDU41CROdZFgxlPoLCdCVIhs0=">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</latexit>
18