Analysis on Water Intensive Rice Export and Climate and Water:

Indian Context (1998-2018)

Analysis 1. Impact of Climate Variables on Quantity of Export of

rice in India mediated by production

1.1 Trend in Rice Export, domestic production and domestic consumption:

ECONOMIC VARIABLES

1.2 Trend Analysis on Annual rainfall, Mean Temperature and extreme events:
CLIMATE VARIABLES

Total availability of
rainfall is same, but for
short duration this is
intensified…..avaibility
of water decreases
because storage is less
for short time

Change in
climate
..with
extreme
events
Trend Analysis (statistical)

(1987-2019) Beta Sig

Rice Export .83 001**
Average Temperature .9 .000**
Annual rainfall -.54 .001**
Significant at 1% error

Growth Rate Analysis

Results

1. Rate of increase in export of rice from India is more compared to the domestic
production rate.
2. Domestic consumption is increasing at nearly constant rate might along with
population growth rate.
3. Occurrence of extreme events are more in current years compared to before.
 4. Ground water irrigation is more now in place of surface water irrigation

Statistical Analysis: (Path Diagram): Mediation Effect

 Mediation builds on the basic linear regression model by adding a third variable (i.e.,
“the mediator “). i.e. production here.

 In mediation the third variable is thought to come in between dependent and

independent variable, which in turn leads to dependent variable.

 a-path: Effect of X on the mediator M

 b-path: Effect of M (controlling for X) on Y

 c-path: total effect of X on Y.

 c’- path: direct effect of x and m on Y

Objective is to see if the c-path is statistically significant and Mediation occurred if (a*b) will
be significant.

A: Export: Impact of Climate mediated by Production If temperature is in certain

range, there is no significant
negative impact on
1. If production falls production , till the
PRODUCTION OF RICE (M) threashold
a-path point..beyond
(.45, .48)
a. Export less decreases.
b. Domestic availability
less b- path CLIMATE VARIABLES
Rainfall

C’- path –Direct effect Mean temperature

EXPORT OF RICE
Extreme Events
c -path Total effect
c
Source: Path Diagram Preacher and Hayer

Regression Analysis

a. Log EXPORT (QUANTITY) = b0+ b1 rainfall+ b2 temperature+b3 extreme events+

error…………
Results: a-path= Temp (.48**), Extreme weather (.45 **)
b-path= .80 **
c’ path= tem (.45*), Prod (.46**)
 b. Log EXPORT (QUANTITY) = b0+ b1 rainfall+ b2 temperature+b3 extreme events+
b4 real gdp+b5 exchange rate +error……. added Economic Variables

Results showed,
 Mean temperature and Extreme weather are statistically significant to explain
mediator variable here i.e. domestic production of rice.
 Domestic production and export of rice are positively related and if production
increases by I million-ton export will be increased by .80 million tons.
 Mean temperature and domestic Production are statistically significant to explain
export quantity of rice.
 Rainfall came out insignificant in every regression model.

Added Economic Variables

c. Log EXPORT (QUANTITY= b0+ b1 rainfall+ b2 temperature+b3 extreme events+
b4 domestic consumption+ b5 real GDP +b6 exchange rate +error.

Regression result showed that the temperature (.27*) and exchange rate (.75**)
are statistically significant to explain export of rice from India.

Analysis 2: Impact of Climate Variables on Usage of Water for

Export of rice in India mediated by domestic Water Availability

2.1 Water Availability and Water usage for producing exportable rice: Hydrological
Variable

2.2 Per Capita Water Availability in India

2.3 Projected water Demand for Different uses

Findings

 Annual rainfall is inconsistent over last three decades

 Mean temperature is rising
 Water Availability in India is nearly constant but domestic demand for water is
increasing more than the recharge.
 Usage of water for exportable rice production is increasing higher than the
availability of water
 Expected scarcity of water in India in future years.

B: Usage of water for Exporting rice: Impact of climate mediated by water availability
 WATER AVAILABILITY (M) a-path

b-path CLIMATE VARIABLES

Rainfall
c- path Total effect
Mean temperature
USAGE OF WATER FOR
Extreme Events
EXPORT OF RICE

C’- path Direct Effect

Source: Path Diagram Preacher and Hayer

Regression Analysis

a. Log EXPORT (water used) = b0+ b1 rainfall+ b2 temperature+b3 extreme events+

error.

Results: a-path= Temp (.43**), Extreme Weather (.48**)

b-path= .75**
c’ path= Temp (.41*), …water availability is insignificant.

Results
First, Climate variables (temperature and extreme climates) can explain usage of water
for exportable quantity of rice from India which are highly statistically significant.
Second, Water Availability explain water use for exportable rice production. If water
availability increases by 1 million lit, usage of water for rice production for export will
be increased by .76 million lit which is statistically significant.

Therefore, statistics and statistical analysis on various climate factors, economic factors
such as export, production and domestic consumption and hydrological variables for
example, water availability, domestic water demand, water usage for export of rice
support that India’s water intensive export may depend on climate variables and the
water situation of the country. Changes in any factor may impact on the export amount
of water intensive agricultural crops in India.