Notes: The emergent patterns of climate change

Very complex climate

- patterns repeat but not exactly
We can’t use reductionism to study it
The scales that give the patterns range at around 14 orders of magnitude
- particles that make clouds = 10^-6
- Earth= 10^8
Weather model= approx 5 orders of magnitude
Climate is much larger
Old climate models were much smaller
We get about one new order of magnitude per decade
Used to be a punch code
Code is super long
A question is: what happens when there’s a change in the system? The climate could
change
- eg wobbles in earth's orbit cause climate change
- Eg changes in solar cycles (approx every 11 years) cause climate change
- Eg volcanoes
- Eg changes in biomass burning
- Eg ozone hole
- Eg how water is evaporated and moved
- Eg contrails
- Eg pollution
Models are always wrong
- they are approximations
- We must ask if a model tells us more than we already know
- We don’t have observations of future either
Quote by Sherwood Rowland “what is the use of having developed a science well enough to
make predictions if in the end all we’re willing to do is stand around and wait for them to
come true?”

Personal Takeaway:
This was a really interesting TED talk and I liked that the presenter was willing to say that
models are always wrong. I also liked how the presenter gave examples of other factors that
are causing change in the climate, as it helped me put into perspective the changes that are
occurring today due to increased CO2 emissions. People tend to put a lot of emphasis on
the CO2 emissions being a cause of climate change, but I found it interesting that the
presenter also talked about other causes as it helps us realize how sensitive the climate is to
change. This TED talk made me realize just how little we know about the climate and how
there are countless other factors that can cause climate change. It also made me wonder
why people are denying climate change so much despite all the evidence and that the
models are as accurate as they can be as of now.