Regional Studies in Marine Science 35 (2020) 101228

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Regional Studies in Marine Science

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rsma

The correlation between ENSO events and sea surface temperature

anomaly in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea
∗
Meng Wang, Jun-ru Guo, Jun Song , Yan-zhao Fu, Wen-yan Sui, Yong-quan Li,
Ze-min Zhu, Shuai Li, Ling-li Li, Xiao-fang Guo, Wen-ting Zuo
College of Marine Technology and Environment, Dalian Ocean University, Dalian, 116023, China
Operational Oceanographic Institution, Dalian Ocean University, Dalian, 116023, China

article info a b s t r a c t

Article history: The sea surface temperatures (SST) reanalysis daily average product in West Pacific Ocean with
Received 29 October 2019 resolution of 0. 25◦ ∼0.125◦ is used to study the relationship between the El Niño and Southern
Received in revised form 13 February 2020 Oscillation (ENSO) events and the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the Bohai Sea and Yellow
Accepted 4 March 2020
Sea The results show that: 1) A certain correlation between the SSTA in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea
Available online 6 March 2020
and ENSO events in winter, but there is no obvious correlation in summer. 2)The SSTA in the Bohai
Keywords: Sea and Yellow Sea has a good lag correlation with the SSTA (ONI index) in NINO3.4 (5◦ N-5 ◦ S and
ENSO events 170◦ W-120 ◦ W) area. The strongest correlation is shown when the time series lags six months, and
The Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea that of the La Niña years is higher than the El Niño years. 3) The first three modes of EOF analysis of
SSTA SST in winter explained more than 80% of SST changes, and the modes were closely related to ENSO
Correlation analysis
events. The results show that the winter SSTA in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea is closely related to
EOF analysis
the occurrence of ENSO events in the tropical Pacific.
© 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction a significant impact on the SSTA in the Chinese offshore (East

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important
ocean-atmosphere coupling phenomenon leading to global cli-
mate change (Trenberth, 2013). ENSO events caused global in-
terannual climate anomalies. ENSO events and its impact on the
atmospheric circulation have become important ways to study
and predict weather and climate in many parts of the world
(Chao and Chao, 2012). SST and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
are two useful indicators of the ENSO state. SOI is relatively
noisy, while the SST index is the average parameter of space,
and contains relatively little observation noise (Hong et al., 2001).
Studies have discussed in detail the close relationship between
climate and SST changes in the western Pacific with ENSO events
(Enfield and Mayer, 1997; Zhang et al., 2017). By analyzing an-
nual cycles and interannual changes in the tropical Pacific and
Indian Ocean regions, Meehl and Gerald (1987) pointed out that
Sea surface temperatures anomaly (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific
have an important influence on the Indian Ocean SSTA. Nobre
(1996) indicated that SST changes in the tropical Atlantic are
closely related to ENSO events. Taking the 1997/98 El Niño events
as an example, the study showed that the ENSO events have
∗ Corresponding author at: College of Marine Technology and Environment,
Dalian Ocean University, Dalian, 116023, China.
E-mail address: songjun2017@dlou.edu.cn (J. Song).
Sea) (Wang et al., 2002). Barnard et al. (2017) studied the ocean
forcing and coastal response caused by the El Niño event in 2015–
2016, Analyzed the SSTA in the East (Japan) Sea and founded
that the summer and winter sea temperatures are significantly
affected by ENSO events. Besides, the study of the warming trend
of the Yellow sea has proved that the SSTA in winter is closely
related to the Arctic oscillation (AO) index (Park et al., 2015).
Zhang et al. (2009) pointed out that the interannual variability
of the East Asian Monsoon is closely related to the ENSO cycle,
and the ENSO variability signal may be transmitted to the Chinese
offshore through the East Asian Monsoon Field.
Based on the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), NOAA (2000)
illustrated the occurrence of ENSO events since the 1950 s, in-
cluding the latest fluctuations since 2000 (Fig. 1). The positive
anomaly represents that the warm phase of ENSO event is the El
Niño event, and the negative anomaly which represents the cold
phase of ENSO event is the La Niña event. For convenience, the
year in which a warm (or cold) event develops will be referred to
as ‘year 0’, and similarly, as ‘year −1’ for the year prior to ‘year
0’, or ‘year+1’ for the next year of ‘year 0’ etc. (Diaz, 1992).
‘‘What effects does the ENSO event have on the SSTA in the
Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea?’’ no exact answer has been provided so
far. Based on the above research status, to explore this problem,
this paper mainly studies the relationship between ENSO event
and SSTA in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsma.2020.101228
2352-4855/© 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
2 M. Wang, J.-r. Guo, J. Song et al. / Regional Studies in Marine Science 35 (2020) 101228
Fig. 1. Multivariate ENSO index MEI (from NOAA climate prediction center).
Fig. 2. Mean state of water depth in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea.
2. Study area
The research area in this paper is the Bohai Sea and Yellow
Sea (117◦ E−127◦ E, 31◦ N−41.5◦ N). The Bohai Sea is a shallow
sea that is deeply enclosed in the Chinese mainland, with the
south, north and west surrounded. The Yellow Sea is a semi-
closed shelf shallow sea, surrounded by the Korean Peninsula and
the Shandong Peninsula in the east and west, the Bohai Sea in the
north and the East China Sea in the south. There is a relatively
large shoal terrain in the west side of the Yellow Sea, while in
the east side, a steep slope exists (Tomczak and Stuart Godfrey,
2013). Influenced by the monsoon, the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea
has an obvious ‘‘continental climate’’, which is dry and cold in
winter and hot and humid in summer.
Fig. 2 shows a mean state of water depth in the Bohai Sea
and Yellow Sea. Fig. 3 shows the average state of the SST over
the years in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea. In summer, the SST
in the Bohai Sea is mainly affected by the water depth. The
higher sea temperature is located in Liaodong Bay, Bohai Sea
Bay and Laizhou Bay, and the middle part of the Bohai Sea is
a low-temperature area. While in the Yellow Sea, a high and
homogeneous SST zone appears in the middle. The reason for
this is that the central part is controlled by the cold-water mass
of the Yellow Sea in summer, and the vertical circulation in
the most of the central and northern regions is weak, so the
seawater shows a stable vertical structure. Therefore, summer
solar radiation dominates the SST changes in the Yellow Sea in
summer. The surface cold zone of the Yellow Sea in summer and
its low-temperature center is one of the important oceanography
phenomena in this area, which is an important part of the Yellow
Sea system. (Yusong and Jie, 1995).
In winter, SST distribution in the Bohai Sea is relatively uni-
form, and the temperature is mainly affected by the water depth,
which shows the phenomenon of deep-water with high tem-
perature and shallow water with low temperature. One obvious
feature of the Yellow Sea in winter is the presence of warm-water
tongue in the Yellow Sea, which is the most acute in the South
Yellow Sea. Another obvious feature is the presence of cold-water
tongue in the Yellow Sea in winter. In the southwestern part of
the Yellow Sea, the west side of the warm-water tongue, there is
a cold-water tongue, this cold-water tongue extends to the outer
sea of the Yangtze River estuary (Bao et al., 2002). The Yellow
Sea warm current is a branch of the Tsushima Current into the
Yellow Sea. It is named because the temperature is higher than
the temperature flowing through the sea. The Yellow Sea warm
current and coastal currents can complement each other, mainly
affected by wind stress. Now it is widely accepted that the Yellow
Sea warm current is stronger in winter and weaker or vanished
in summer (Xu et al., 2009).
3. Data and methods
The bathymetric data used in this paper is ETOPO2(2001)
global bathymetric data, and the horizontal resolution is 1/30◦ ,
covering 300 × 315(95116)grid points in the study area. The
SST dataset is the 1958–2017 daily average of the CORA v1.0
Western Pacific SST analysis product. From north to south, the
resolution increases from 0.25◦ × 0.125◦ to 0.125◦ × 0.125◦ , so
the resolution of the data in the southern region is higher than
that in the northern region. The study area covers a total of 63 ×
81 (5103) grid points. To get the seasonal average, the summer
average is meant by the average of June–August, and the winter
average is meant by the average of December of the current year
and January–February of the following year. In the December of
2017, only the first half of the data was used. Therefore, the
years mentioned in the present study are 60 years in summer
and 59 years in winter.
ENSO events since the 1950s (Fig. 4) were chosen for compar-
ison. eight strong El Niño events and five strong La Niña events
were selected from the historical records of ENSO events after
1958 as representatives to discuss the strong ENSO correlation
between events and SSTA. On the basis of the previous definitions
of ‘0 years’ and ‘+1 years’, in combination with the year of
the strong ENSO event published on the NOAA official website,
the average state of SSTA in 1965–1966, 1972–1973, 1982–1983,
1986–1988, 1991–1993, 1997–1998, 2015–2017,was taken as the
El Niño‘0 year’, and the average state of SSTA in 1964–1966,
1970–1972, 1973–1975, 1988–1990, 2010–2012 was taken as the
 M. Wang, J.-r. Guo, J. Song et al. / Regional Studies in Marine Science 35 (2020) 101228
Fig. 3. SST average status of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea from 1958 to 2017 in summer (June to August) and winter (December to February).
average state of La Nina ‘0 year’. Similarly, the average state of
SSTA in 1967, 1974, 1984, 1989, 1994, 1999, was taken as the El
Niño ‘+1 year’, and the average state of SSTA in 1967, 1973, 1976,
1991, 2013 was taken as the average state of La Nina ‘+1 year’.
Analysis ideas: The first part analyzed the horizontal distri-
bution of the long-term sequence of SSTA in the Bohai Sea and
Yellow Sea, and discussed these results in combination with ENSO
events. The second part introduced the ONI index (NINO3.4 (5◦
N−5 ◦ S and 170◦ W−120 ◦ W) SSTA) which was used to conduct
correlation analysis with the SSTA in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea
to support the analysis results of SST data. In the third part, EOF
analysis was conducted on the SST in the Bohai Sea and Yellow
Sea. By analyzing the modes, the rules governing the changes of
SST in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea were effectively understood,
and the relationship between ENSO events and SSTA in the Bohai
Sea and Yellow Sea was further discussed.
4. Results and discussions
Fig. 5 shows the SSTA in summer and winter of the Bohai
Sea and Yellow Sea from 1958 to 2017. The up arrow in the
picture indicates strong El Niño events and the downward arrow
indicates strong La Niña events in the ENSO events history. In
summer and winter, most of the El Niño ‘years 0’ SST shows
positive anomalies and most La Niña ‘years 0’ SST shows negative
anomalies. In addition, for the whole region, the SSTA reverse
oscillation is more obvious in winter when ENSO events ‘years
+1’, and the range of SSTA changes in winter is less than that in
summer.
SST warming in El Niño years and the SST cooling in la Nina
years may be caused by changes in the surface heat flux of the
Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea when the ENSO event occurs. Klein
et al. (1999) pointed out that during the warm (cold) period
of the ENSO event, the tropical north Atlantic, the south China
sea and the Indian Ocean all experienced SST warming (cold)
at different times. They also explained that atmospheric circu-
lation anomalies associated with ENSO alter the net heat flux
3
entering these remote oceans. These heat flux anomalies lead to
the local SST anomalies that appear in conjunction with ENSO
events. Chang et al. (1997) pointed out surface heat flux forcing is
believed to play an important role in determining tropical Atlantic
SST variability. Venzke et al. (2000) pointed out that the large-
scale ENSO-related SST variability in the Indian Ocean arises in
response to ENSO-induced net surface heat flux anomalies.
This mechanism indicates that the Subtropical ocean is largely
responding to ENSO events through the ‘‘Atmospheric Bridge’’.
We believe that when the ENSO event occurred, the SST anoma-
lies in the tropical Pacific Ocean used the ‘‘Atmospheric Bridge’’
as a medium, which further affected the surface temperature of
the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea by changing the surface heat flux
of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea.
4.1. Analysis of interannual variation of SSTA
The above results can support the summer and winter average
conditions during the period of 1958–2017 when strong ENSO
events occurred (Fig. 6). At the time of the El Niño events, the
SSTA in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea showed positive values
in summer and winter, indicating a warming state; while when
the La Niña events occurred, the SSTA showed negative values in
summer and winter, indicating a cooling state.
The larger value of SSTA in summer is active in the central part
of the Yellow Sea (cold water group) and Liaodong Bay, Bohai Sea
Bay and Laizhou Bay. The larger value of SSTA in winter is mainly
active in the South Yellow Sea (warm water tongue) sea area,
the southwestern Yellow Sea (cold water tongue) sea area and
the Bohai Sea Bay. Compared to the El Niño years, winter SSTA
in La Niña years is significantly larger, probably due to a slight
bias in the El Niño events from June to September, while the La
Niña events mostly occurred in October to February (Klein et al.,
1999). So, the SSTA in winter response to the La Niña events is
better than the El Niño events.
The comparison results of Figs. 6 and 7 show that the strong
ENSO events occur in ‘year 0’ and ‘year +1’, SSTA in most areas
4 M. Wang, J.-r. Guo, J. Song et al. / Regional Studies in Marine Science 35 (2020) 101228

Fig. 4. Comparison of strong El Niño and La Niña events in historical records from the 1950s (from NOAA climate prediction center).

Fig. 5. 1958–2017 SSTA of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea in summer and winter.

of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea is alternating between positive
and negative in winter, while the SSTA in most areas did not show
significant alternations between positive and negative in summer.
To further explore the relationship between SSTA in the Bohai
Sea and Yellow Sea with the ENSO events, this paper chooses the
strongest 1997/98 El Niño event and the 1975/76 La Niña event to
analyze. Fig. 8 shows that the strongest El Niño ‘years 0’ summer
and winter SSTA in most areas is positive, and in the ‘years +1’
the winter SSTA in most areas is negative, while the summer
‘years +1’ SSTA in most areas is still positive. Fig. 9 shows that
the strongest La Niña ‘years 0’ summer and winter SSTA in most
areas is negative, and the ‘years +1’ summer SSTA in most areas
is still negative while winter SSTA in most areas is positive.
This result confirms the facts mentioned above that the SSTA
in most areas of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea in winter shows
positive and negative alternations of ‘years 0’ and ‘years +1’
with ENSO events, while the SSTA in summer did not show any
positive and negative alternations. It can be seen that the larger
value of SSTA appears in the South Yellow Sea region in winter,
where the Yellow Sea warm current collection areas and the
southwest coastal stream collection areas.
By analyzing the interannual variation of SST in the Bohai Sea
and Yellow Sea, the following conclusions can be drawn:
1. In El Niño ‘years 0’, the SSTA in summer and winter of the
Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea is positive; In La Niña ‘years 0’,
the SSTA in summer and winter in the Bohai Sea and Yellow
Sea is negative.
2. When strong ENSO events occur ‘years +1’, the winter
SSTA shows contrary to ‘years 0’, while the summer SSTA
remains consistent with ‘years 0’.
Previous studies have pointed out that ENSO is the alterna-
tion of warm El Niño and cold La Niña conditions (Axel et al.,
2018). Therefore, we speculated that, compared with summer,
the change of SSTA in winter was more closely related to ENSO
events.
4.2. Correlation analysis
Based on the above results, we guess that the Bohai Sea and
Yellow Sea response to ENSO events in winter stronger than
 M. Wang, J.-r. Guo, J. Song et al. / Regional Studies in Marine Science 35 (2020) 101228 5

Fig. 6. SSTA average state of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea in summer and winter of ‘years 0’ during the strong ENSO events from 1958 to 2017.

that in summer. This paper selects the ONI index published by
NOAA (the monthly average SSTA data from 1958 to 2017 in the
NINO3.4 area) and the monthly average SSTA data in the Bohai
Sea and Yellow Sea from 1958 to 2017. For each time series,
three months of values were used for smoothing processing, and
correlation analysis was conducted after removing the 60 years
linear trend.
The results indicate that the Indian Ocean SST changes are
closely related in the three months after the ENSO events, and
the Atlantic and China South Sea showed the strongest correlation
5–6 months after the ENSO events (Charles et al., 1997; Lanzante,
1996; Klein et al., 1999). It was pointed out earlier that sub-
tropical ocean responded to ENSO events through ‘‘Atmospheric
Bridges’’, and time lags generally existed. Therefore, the delayed
response of these seas to the ENSO event has certain reference
6 M. Wang, J.-r. Guo, J. Song et al. / Regional Studies in Marine Science 35 (2020) 101228

Fig. 7. SSTA average state of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea in summer and winter of ‘years +1’ during the strong ENSO events from 1958 to 2017.

significance for the connection between the Bohai Sea and the
ENSO events. So conclusion can be made that if the Bohai Sea and
Yellow Sea is related to ENSO events, the SSTA of the Bohai Sea
and Yellow Sea may also have a corresponding lag effect. Table 1
lists the SSTA seasonal averages in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea
during the 60 years of historical records of strong El Niño events
and La Niña events correlation with ONI index (in time series with
no time lag, 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, and 12 months).
In terms of the lag time, the annual correlation coefficient
was the largest when the lag time was 6 months. The annual
correlation coefficient of El Niño reached 0.2364, exceeding the
reliability test with a confidence of 90%. The correlation coeffi-
cient of La Niña years reached 0.3491, exceeding the reliability
test with a confidence of 99%. The relevance of La Niña years is
higher than that of El Niño years. Fig. 10 indicates the correlation
between the season average of the SSTA in the Bohai Sea and
the ONI index (the ONI index used here is the value of 1/2
 M. Wang, J.-r. Guo, J. Song et al. / Regional Studies in Marine Science 35 (2020) 101228 7

Fig. 8. SSTA average state in summer and winter of ‘years 0’ and ‘years +1’ El Niño events in 1997/98(The strongest El Niño event on record).

ONI index) when the time series lags for 6 months. The yearly
total correlation coefficient reached 0.3415, which exceeded the
reliability test with a confidence of 95%. Therefore, we concluded
that when the time series lags six months, the change of the SSTA
in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea has a good correlation with the
ONI index.
Table 2 shows that in the absence of the time series lag, the
ENSO events have a weaker correlation with the SSTA of the Bohai
Sea and Yellow Sea in the whole years, but the correlation in
winter is higher, as the winter of La Niña years show the strongest
correlation with a correlation coefficient of 0.3910. When the
time series lags six months, the winter correlation coefficient
increases significantly. Fig. 11 shows the correlation between the
8 M. Wang, J.-r. Guo, J. Song et al. / Regional Studies in Marine Science 35 (2020) 101228

Fig. 9. SSTA average state in summer and winter of ‘years 0’ and ‘years +1’ El Niño events in 1975/76(The strongest La Niña event on record).

winter SSTA and ONI index with a six-month lag in time series.
The correlation coefficients were 0.4508 for La Niña years and
0.3449 for El Niño years. The analysis shows that in ENSO events
years, the correlation in winter is much greater than that of
summer, and the correlation of La Niña in winter is higher than
that in El Niño.
Based on the analysis above, to explore the impact of to-
pography and different hydrological features on the correla-
tion between SSTA and ENSO events in the Bohai Sea and Yel-
low Sea, this paper selected five different areas of the Bohai
Sea and Yellow Sea ABCDE for correlation analysis (Fig. 12).
ABCDE areas are represented in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea.
Area A (122◦ E−124◦ E,34◦ N−36◦ N) is the central area where
the Yellow Sea warm current gathers in winter. Area B (upper
limit of 118◦ E−120◦ E, 35◦ N−37◦ N, lower limit of 120◦ E−122◦ E,
 M. Wang, J.-r. Guo, J. Song et al. / Regional Studies in Marine Science 35 (2020) 101228 9

Fig. 10. Correlation between the SSTA seasonal average in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea and the 1/2ONI index during the period 1958–2017 when the strong ENSO
events lag six months in time series.

Fig. 11. Correlation between winter SSTA and ONI index of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea with a time lag of 6 months during 1958–2017 (picture a represent El
Niño years, picture b represent La Niña years).
10 M. Wang, J.-r. Guo, J. Song et al. / Regional Studies in Marine Science 35 (2020) 101228

Table 1
Correlation between the SSTA season average in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea
and the ONI index of strong ENSO events from 1958 to 2017 with different time
lags.
Lag time (month) The correlation coefficient (R)
El Niño years La Niña years
0 0.0328 0.1949
3 0.1685 0.2017
6 0.2364 0.3491
9 0.2047 0.2703
12 0.1657 0.1586

Table 2
Correlation between the SSTA and the ONI index in summer and winter in the
case of strong ENSO events from 1958 to 2017 with no time lag or six months
of time lag.
The correlation coefficient (R)
No time lag Lagging for six months
ENSO El Niño La Niña ENSO El Niño La Niña
Annual 0.0657 0.1496 Annual 0.2364 0.3491
Summer 0.2030 0.1875 Summer 0.1679 0.2658
Winter 0.0737 0.3910 Winter 0.3449 0.4508

Fig. 12. ABCDE five regions selected in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea.

35◦ N−37◦ N) is along the land area, which is seriously affected

by the terrestrial climate. Area C (122◦ E−125◦ E,37◦ N−39◦ N) is a
region with a cold-water mass activity in the summer in the Yel-
low Sea and is a relatively closed region. Area D (123◦ E−126◦ E,
31◦ N−33◦ N) is the most open area in the Yellow Sea and with the
most exchanges with the East China Sea. Area D (121◦ E−123◦ E,
31◦ N−33◦ N) is a region with strong coastal currents in the Yellow
Sea.
Fig. 13 shows the correlation analysis of summer and winter
Fig. 13. Variation trends of the correlation coefficient (R) between SSTA and the
in five areas of ABCDE. Correlation coefficients (R) 0.6–0.8 are ONI index with a lag of 0∼9 months from 1958 to 2017 for strong ENSO events
generally regarded as strong correlations, 0.4–0.6 to be moderate in summer and winter. (Picture a represent summer in El Niño years; Picture b
correlations, 0.2–0.4 to be weak correlations, and 0.0–0.2 to be represent winter in El Niño years; Picture c represent summer in La Niña years;
very weak or non-correlated. Picture a and picture b in Fig. 13 Picture d represent winter in La Niña years).
shows the R change curve between summer SSTA and ENSO
events over time. Picture a show the R change curve between
the summer SSTA and El Niño events over time. The R in the the picture b fluctuates between −0.2 and 0.2, without show-
picture a fluctuates between −0.2 and 0.4. Only the D and E ing a significant correlation. Picture c and picture d in Fig. 13
regions are displayed in a weak correlation in the next three show the R change curve between winter and ENSO events over
months. Picture b shows the R change curve between summer time. picture c shows the R change curve between winter SSTA
SSTA and the La Niña events over time. The R change curve in and El Niño events over time. The R in the picture fluctuates
 M. Wang, J.-r. Guo, J. Song et al. / Regional Studies in Marine Science 35 (2020) 101228
between −0.3–0.5. Area A appears in a weak correlation and area
D shows a medium correlation. picture d shows the R change
curve between the winter SSTA and La Niña events over time.
The R fluctuates between −0.3–0.7. Regions A, C, and D shows
moderate correlations, and region E shows strong correlations. In
summary, compared with summer, the correlation in winter is
stronger. Compared with the rest of the time lag, it shows a more
obvious correlation when the time lag is six months. Relatively
open areas A and D have a good correlation, while the A area
where the Yellow Sea warm current converges and E area with
the strong current along the west coast in winter response the
best.
Previous studies have shown that the East Asian monsoon is
the main factor affecting the interannual variability of the oceans
in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea and East China Sea. The East Asian
monsoon El Niño years are weak and La Niña years are strong, and
the trend is more obvious in winter than that in summer, which
is significantly correlated with ENSO events. El Niño firstly affects
the atmospheric circulation in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, and
the wind field influences the change of the warm current in the
Yellow Sea in winter. The local winds enhances the intensity
of the coastal current and the Yellow Sea warm current. The
fluctuation of the main axis of the Yellow Sea warm current
has a good lag correlation with the Southern Oscillation Index
(Song et al., 2009; Wang et al., 2009; Zhang et al., 2009). These
conclusions can be drawn from the results of correlation analysis
in this paper:
1. Correlation analysis of the whole region shows that La Niña
years are stronger than El Niño years, and the correlation
in winter is stronger than that in summer, and there is no
obvious correlation in summer.
2. The regional correlation analysis of the Bohai Sea and Yel-
low Sea shows that the opener areas are more relevant
than the closed areas, and the areas with the Yellow Sea
warm current and the west coast flow are more pertinent
than the rest. Therefore, the ENSO events may have a
certain impact on the Yellow Sea warm current and west
coastal current thus affecting the SSTA of the Bohai Sea and
Yellow Sea.
4.3. EOF analysis
The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition of
the SST anomaly field in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea winter
from 1958 to 2017 is performed to obtain the eigenvector and
corresponding time coefficient of the SST anomaly field in winter.
In winter, the first three modes explained a total of 84.9% of
the total variance (Table 3), which summarizes the SST changes of
the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea in winter. It can be seen from Fig. 14
that the first mode of winter explains the reason for the 57.6%
change in SST in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea. The first mode of
winter is negatively correlated in the whole research area, which
indicates that the SST trend in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea has
a good overall consistency in space. The second mode explains
21% of the total variance. This mode represents two distribution
patterns of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea SST changes in the
northern sea area and the southern sea area showing the opposite
trends. The third mode explains 6.3% of the total variance. The SST
changes of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea show an opposite trend
in the eastern sea area and the western sea area which basically
characterizes the spatial distribution pattern of SST in the Bohai
Sea, while the eastern part of the Yellow Sea is opposite to that
in the western part of the Yellow Sea.
The results of the EOF analysis in winter is consistent with
that from Han et al. (2014), as these three modes (consistent SST
11
Table 3
Variance contribution rate of the first three modes of EOF.
Modal n Modal 1 Modal 2 Modal 3
Variance contribution rate of mode n 57.6 21 6.3
(%)
The cumulative variance contribution 57.6 78.6 84.9
rate of the first n modes (%)
anomaly, north–south SST anomaly and east–west SST anomaly)
in winter have been proved to be closely related to ENSO events.
In the long-term sequence analysis of SST in the Eastern China Sea
including the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea (Song et al., 2007) pointed
out that the first mode of SST is mainly in the background field
of SST inter-decadal oscillations in the North Pacific, along with
coastal runoff and advection heat caused by the Kuroshio. The
second mode is the response of the El Niño event in the East China
offshore. The third mode is most likely related to the mixing of
currents and water masses.
5. Conclusion
This paper uses the CORA v1.0 west Pacific Ocean 0.25◦ ∼
0.125◦ resolution SST reanalysis daily average product to study
the relationship between the (ENSO) events and the SSTA in
the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea. The analysis shows that there is
an obvious relationship between the SSTA in the Bohai Sea and
Yellow Sea and ENSO events in the Tropical pacific:
1. El Niño ‘years 0’ summer and winter SSTA are positive,
La Niña ‘years 0’ summer and winter SSTA are negative.
However, in El Niño and La Niña ‘years +1’, only winter
SSTA showed obvious positive and negative alternating
with ENSO events, and summer did not show positive and
negative alternating SSTA with ENSO events.
2. The statistical analysis of the correlation coefficient be-
tween the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea and ENSO events
supports the results of sea surface temperature data anal-
ysis; the correlation in winter is significantly higher than
that in summer, and there is no discernible correlation in
summer.
3. The anomalous change of SST in the Yellow Sea has a
good lag correlation with the development of the ENSO
events in the tropical Pacific. It shows in the strongest
correlation when it lags six months in the time series. And
the correlation of La Niña years is higher than that of El
Niño years.
4. The analysis of the SST of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea
shows that the correlation of the outer sea is stronger
than that of the coastal sea; the correlation of open sea is
stronger than that of closed sea; The correlation between
the Yellow Sea warm current and the west coast current is
stronger than that of other areas.
5. In the EOF analysis of SST in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea
in winter, the first three modes account for more than 84%
of the total variation. The distribution pattern of winter SST
changes in winter is closely related to ENSO events in the
tropical Pacific.
Declaration of competing interest
This work was supported by the Open Fund of Key Laboratory
of Marine Environmental Information Technology, China (Junru
Guo); LiaoNing Revitalization Talents Program, China [grant num-
ber XLYC1807161]; Dalian High-level Talents Innovation Support
Plan, China [grant number 2017RQ063]; Dalian Ocean Univer-
sity, China ‘‘Zhanlan scholar’’ Program (Jun Song); The National
12 M. Wang, J.-r. Guo, J. Song et al. / Regional Studies in Marine Science 35 (2020) 101228
Fig. 14. First three modes of SST EOF analysis of the Bohai Sea in summer and winter.
Natural Science Foundation of China under contract [grant num-
bers. 41206013, 41430963]; the Public Science and Technology
Research Funds Projects of Ocean under contract [grant num-
ber 201205018]; the National Science and Technology Support
Project, China under contract [grant number 2014BAB12B02];
Projects of Institute of Marine Industry Technology of Liaoning
Universities, China (Jun Song).
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank China’s Ocean ReAnalysis (CORA)
(http://cora.nmdis.org.cn/cpfw/) for offering SST data, and also
the NOAA’s climate prediction center (https://www.noaa.gov/
climate/) for offering SSTA data in NINO3.4 area. We thank Na-
tional Marine Science Data Center (Dalian), National Science &
Technology Resource Sharing Service Platform of China (http://
odc.dlou.edu.cn/) for providing valuable data and information. We
also thank the reviewers for carefully reviewing the manuscript
and providing valuable comments to help improve this paper.
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