Social Sciences University of Ankara

School of Political Sciences | Department of International Relations

M.A. Program in Peace and Conflict Research

THE CIVIL WAR IN YEMEN

Term Paper for the Course: Applied Conflict Analysis

PCS 504

(Spring 2020)

Name: Gulkhanim Mammadova

Student/Enrolment Number: 195411209
E-mail: gulxanim2401@mail.ru
Telephone: 905525846273
 THE CIVIL WAR IN YEMEN

Gulkhanim Mammadova

7th of June, Ankara

1. Research Problem and the Puzzle/Research Question...........................................................................2

2. Brief History of Your Research Problem................................................................................................. 3

3. Theory.................................................................................................................................................. 5

4. Method................................................................................................................................................ 5

5. Case-Study and Analysis of the Findings................................................................................................ 7

6. Conclusion as discussion....................................................................................................................... 9

7. Bibliography....................................................................................................................................... 10

Abstract:
This study focuses on the civil war in Yemen which has been going on since 2014 and has its
roots in the Arab spring. This work aimed to identify the causes of the civil war and analysis
was conducted through the prism of the theory of Greed and Grievances. The research was
conducted by using the case study method and the analysis of many secondary sources led to
the conclusion that this conflict occurred due to a lack of political and economic reforms in
the state, a lack of democracy in government, which in turn led to poverty, unemployment,
etc., and most importantly, political discrimination of certain ethnic groups, as well as ethnic,
religious, and tribal differences in the society - all this played a role in this civil war.

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 1. Research Problem and the Puzzle/Research Question

The Civil War is a problem of colossal proportions. The consequences can be human
deaths, as well as humanitarian crises, which in turn attract the attention of the international
community, and the worst can be the cause of regional and global instability. The outbreak of
Civil War in Yemen, which began in 2014 and gained new momentum after the Saudi
military intervention in 2015, is a serious blow to regional and global security. This conflict
threatens security in the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, a major transport artery connecting the Indian
ocean and the Red sea that transports oil from the Gulf States to Europe. The Yemeni crisis
has sharpened the contradictions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which are two centers of
power in the middle East. The civil war has contributed to the growing influence of terrorist
groups in Yemen, like al-Qaeda. At the same time, the war in Yemen has led to a
humanitarian disaster in this Arab country.
The Republic of Yemen is distinguished by the sharpness and variety of internal
political, inter-religious and clan problems that can split the country in the near future and
lead to the creation of new States on its territory. Despite the fact that the change of the top
state leadership in Yemen after the beginning of the "Arab spring" took place in a milder
scenario compared to Libya or Syria, the transition period was not crowned with the
stabilization of the political and economic situation and the beginning of systemic reforms.
In this regard, it is extremely important to find out the causes of the Yemeni conflict,
which has not been resolved for the past years. Having found the causes of the Yemeni Civil
War, state can more effectively search for ways to calm it. The distinctive feature of Yemeni
society is its tribal character. As before, Yemenis consider belonging to a particular tribe to be
the foundation of their life. In the understanding of most Yemenis, any of them is a free
person, from birth to death, from everyone and everything, but not from their tribe. There are
currently 167 tribes in Yemen. Most of them are United into two federations of tribes: the
hashed (Banu hashed), which is spread mainly in the North, and the Bakil (Banu bakil) in the
South of Yemen (Weir, 2007).
The civil war in Yemen is becoming an increasingly vivid example of a 21st-century
conflict every year. From one point of view, it includes parties within the state that are
fragmented over time, both in the camp of legitimate authorities recognized by the world
community, and in the ranks of the opposition, where there are leading groups in the face of
the Houthis. On the other hand, civil war in a state becomes almost a global event, as
numerous actors in international relations are involved in the conflict, pursuing the goal of

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protecting human rights in the affected state, or realizing their own interests. The fight against
the problem is formed in the traditional modern approach to resolving such issues –the
removal of third-party interests outside the state territory within the framework of the
negotiation process, and as for internal problems-the exhaustion of resources from the sides,
together with the active mediation of a disinterested representative from the international
peacekeeping force organizations represented by the UN.

2. Brief History of Your Research Problem

Yemen is an ancient but impoverished country in the South of the Arabian Peninsula.
Fragile agreements, a weak economy, long-standing differences between the Sunni elite and
the Shiite minority, as well as the inability of the state authorities to control the entire territory
of the country led to the fact that Yemen eventually became mired in a protracted armed
conflict (Sharp, 2019). The conflict fueled by the "Arab spring" and the lack of reforms.
1) In January 2011, mass demonstrations began in Yemen demanding the resignation
of the President - Ali Abdullah Salleh, who had ruled the country for 33 years since 1978.
Unlike the protests in neighbouring countries, which were quickly suppressed by force, in
Yemen, the degree of resentment only increased. The reasons for this were: many people
lived in poverty and part of the population was constantly suffering from hunger. In fact, even
before the beginning of the active phase of the civil war in many areas, the President's power
was nominal or absent — somewhere al-Qaeda controlled everything, and in the South, the
power was seized by field commanders of various groups. All this has turned Yemen into a
real boiling pot, which sooner or later had to explode (Popp, 2015).
In early February, the protests forced the President to come to Parliament and make
some concessions: he did not transfer power to his son, reduced the number of presidential
terms to two years in a row and refused to participate in the upcoming elections. Salleh,
however, rejected to leave the post and that fuelled the protests (Salisbury, 2016). On
February 17, the first protesters were killed by the police in Aden. Violence escalated until it
reached its peak on March 18, when 52 demonstrators were killed in the capital, Sanaa. That
mass killings show the one of the events which influenced crisis in Yemen (Heinze, 2014).
2) The standoff with shootings and explosions lasted until May 19, when it was
reported that a truce had been reached and that President Salleh was ready to leave office
within 30 days. A new presidential election should be held within two months of his
departure. However, Ali Abdullah Saleh refused to sign the document agreed by the parties.

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This decision of the leader of the country led to a new round of violence. The Yemeni air
force and the opposition's combat troops joined the action.
3) The third and most important turning point in Yemen's history during the "Arab
spring" was the shelling of the presidential residence in Sanaa on June 3, when Abdullah
Saleh, the Prime Minister and speaker of Parliament, was wounded. Militia members from the
rebel tribes tried to break into the city. Saleh fled Yemen to return briefly in the fall. In
November, he finally left office and handed over power to Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi,
Yemen's Vice President and a longtime ally. But this was not the end of the matter. Troops
led by Saleh's son opened fire on protesters, killing and wounding up to a hundred people.
The" Arab spring " for Yemen ended with the confirmation of President Abd Rabbo
Mansour Hadi on February 27, 2012. But the great civil war was already on the threshold. The
Houthis (adherents of the Shia tradition in Islam, United in the Ansar Allah movement (Sharp,
2019)) did not lay down their weapons, al-Qaeda strengthened, and the government remained
shaky and unable to implement vital reforms. "The problem was that, despite promises, the
Houthis did not get any representation in the transitional government," writes Charles Schmitz
of the Middle East Institute. Thus, they saw that "it is no different from the old regime that
waged wars against them.
In 2014, the Yemeni government reduced subsidies for petroleum products because of
pressure of the International monetary fund (Zachary, 2015). This, in turn, led to an increase
in gasoline prices. New protests began. The Houthis took up arms and seized entire districts
and government offices in Sanaa, setting up roadblocks (Sharp, 2019). Despite the peace
agreement signed with the participation of the UN, and the replacement of the Prime Minister,
the hostilities continued, spreading to other cities in the country. On January 20, 2015, the
Houthis occupied the residence of the Yemeni President, forcing Mansour Hadi to submit his
resignation on January 22, and in February to flee the country through the southern port of
Aden (Zachary, 2015). Meanwhile, on February 6, 2015, the rebels formed their own
authority, the Revolutionary Committee. It lasted in power for more than a year, being
abolished in August 2016 with the transfer of all powers to the Supreme political Council.
Peter Salisbury wrote that when analysing this conflict, it can be seen that the groups
that participate in the civil war are simplified into two parts "Pro-Hadi" and "Pro-Houthi". But
in fact, the majority of Yemeni citizens do not support any of these parts, but rather, each
participate of much smaller groups that differ in political views, discontent with identity,
ideology, and so on (Salisbury, 2016).

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 3. Theory

Considering the conflicting interests of various political, religious and ethnic groups in
Yemen: Greed and Grievance theory is most suitable for studying this civil conflict. The
importance of the theoretical framework is that when analysing the conflict, it shows exactly
where to look for indicators of potential escalation and opportunities to prevent the escalation
of violence.
First of all, natural resources like oil, are associated with an increased likelihood of
conflict, and diamonds, are associated with an increased conflict duration, because natural
resources can diminish the initial cost of conflict and support the insurgent with a simple way
to Finance protracted conflicts. Natural resources can also make the state more profitable a
prize for capture, further reducing the cost of missed opportunities by the rebels (Collier,
Hoeffler, 2004). If you look at the economy of Yemen, you can see that the main industry is
the oil and oil refining industry. It is worth noting the complex resource issue, namely, the oil
issue. Fuel subsidies play a special role in this problem. Fuel subsidies are a targeted policy
implemented by the state-energy producer to provide fuel consumers with special subsidies
that allow them to purchase a finished resource product at a reduced price. In 2014, these
benefits were cancelled, which immediately caused a wave of protest in the state, as such
measures provoked a drop in the standard of living in the country and an increase in energy
prices.
On the other hand, the reason of this Civil War is the religious and political beliefs of
the participants in the conflict. The traditional conflict between Sunnis (who were in power)
and Shiites (mainly the opposition) is complemented by the political Outlook of the Houthis,
who demand greater representation in government, and their own vision of the state structure
by the Islah party, which is the largest opposition party in Yemen. This proves the statement
that conflict cannot have only one motive, since conflicts have a complex structure and cannot
be studied by using only simple methods (Keen, 2012).
The following hypotheses will be tested in this study:
1) Herbst’s hypothesis, countries with a highly concentrated population have a very low
risk of conflict, whereas those with a highly dispersed population have a very high
risk (about 37%). (Collier and Hoeffler, 581)
2) Cohesion is important for rebel effectiveness; social fractionalization makes a society
substantially safer: a maximally fractionalized society has a conflict risk only one
quarter that of a homogenous society. (Collier and Hoeffler, 581)

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 Thus, in order to study the question posed through the prism of the theory of greed and
grievances, these hypotheses will be tested, because these expressions were not reflected in
the literature on this civil war. In addition, this work will test 2 models: 1) Gurr`s Relative
Deprivation Theory on Grievances (Gur, 1970) 2) Collier and Hoeffler opportunity for rebellions
theory of Greed and Grievances (Collier and Hoeffler, 2004) on Yemeni Civil War.

4. Method

The dependent variable of this research paper is – the outbreak of the Yemeni Civil
War 2015. The main explanatory variables of this study are – various causes which
influenced the outbreak of this conflict.
In order to test the Greed and Grievances theory and to answer chosen research
question -causes of Yemeni Civil War outbreak? - this research will be qualitative case-study
based, because the case study allows to get a high level of conceptual validity and evaluate the
indicators that best explain the chosen theoretical concept.
Chosen case study will be explanatory case study, which is mainly based on
qualitative analysis (both interpretive and analytical). This work is explanatory in nature,
focusing on identifying factors that contributed to the outbreak of the Civil War and based on
the analysis of various academic sources, the article will cover the causes of the political crisis
in Yemen, which led to a violent civil war.
This research will use case-study analysis because it examines in detail the action of
causal mechanisms in individual situations. By examining a single case, you can see a large
number of intermediate variables and discover unexpected aspects of the action of a particular
causal mechanism, as well as determine which conditions presented in the case allow you to
activate the causal mechanism. And since qualitative research often asks questions: "how?",
"why?", and " when?", which highlight the relationships between individual constructs.
The case study method will be used in order to identify dependent and explanatory
variables, inputs and outputs to the system, as well as trigger conditions. In other words, this
method helps as an empirical qualitative study that examines the current phenomenon of the
Yemeni civil war in the context of the theory of greed and grievance, when the boundaries
between the phenomenon and the context are clearly not obvious, and which uses numerous
sources of evidence. In turn, the method of qualitative research is based on the use of many
different secondary sources of literature in order to collect and analyse various data to study
the outbreak of conflict in Yemen. Therefore, this work is based on secondary literature,

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books, articles, and various resources that have investigated this conflict, and then a critical
analysis is carried out in order to identify its conclusions and create a new context. Also,
using multiple sources of evidence will allow this study to solve a wider range of questions
and answer them correctly.
Thus, this case study analysis will be used in order to determine whether there is a
causal relationship between the variables under study, i.e. Greed and Grievances, and the
Cause of the civil war in Yemen. In addition, it will also be necessary to determine whether
there are any intermediate variables that can affect the visible relationship (or even distort it
by masking the relationship or making it invisible).

5. Сase-Study and Analysis of the Findings

The protests were initiated by students in the tribal and poor areas and regions of
Yemen. of course, it is easy to conclude that poverty, social pressure, and differences forced
the poor population to start protests against the current regime (Humphreys and Weinstain,
2008). Limited political power for Houthi and Southern Movement, certain demographic
factors such as huge increase in population as well as urbanization, which bring migration
flows, and most importantly ethnic and religious differences in society all influenced the
outbreak of Civil War in Yemen after Arab Spring.

Trigger condition

relative deprivation

-political exclusion and discrimination of

Houthis as well as southern movement;
-group cohesion (Houthi against pro
Yemeni Civil War
sunni government);
-international diffusion - support from
Iran and Saudi Arabia;

Figure 1. Yemeni Civil War Black Box structure by using Gurr`s Relative Deprivation Theory on
Grievances (Gurr, 1970).

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 Figure 1 shows the Black Box structure of Yemeni Civil War by using Gur`s
Grievances Theory, where 1st column presents the explanatory variables (causes) which with
the pressure of trigger condition (relative deprivation) influenced the outbreak of Civil War in
2014. In turn, relative deprivation is a condition when there is a lack of political, economic,
social resources for equality in the society.

Trigger Condition

opportunity to organize
protests and armed conflict

-inequality in political right;

-diaspora support;
-international support from Iran and
Saudi Arabia;
- a huge number of unemplyment youth
especially men;
- millitary equipment in hands of
Yemeni Civil
rebellions; War
- mountains in Yemen, which were used;
-cohesion - tribes, ethnics, shia, sunni
etc;
- hatred between groups;

Figure 2. Yemeni Civil War Black Box structure by using Collier and Hoeffler`s Greed and
Grievances Theory (Collier and Hoeffler, 2004).

Figure 2 represents the Yemeni Civil War Black Box structure by using Collier and
Hoeffler`s Greed and Grievances Theory (Collier and Hoeffler, 2004). 1st column defines
factors and causes which with possessing of opportunity to organize armed conflict started the
Yemeni Civil War.

The following hypotheses of Greed and Grievances theory were chosen for testing:

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 1. Hypothesis 1- countries with a highly concentrated population have a very low risk of
conflict, whereas those with a highly dispersed population have a very high risk
(about 37%) (Collier and Hoeffler, 581). This hypothesis finds support in Yemeni
case, because despite the fact that Yemen has a large population and rapid growth
among it as well as urbanization processes, it has a law concentrated population –
density(km²) was 43, 86 in 2010 which makes 160 place in the density world rank
(World Population Review online). Therefore, the fact that Yemen has a highly
dispersed population confirms this chosen hypothesis.

2. Hypothesis 2 - Cohesion is important for rebel effectiveness; social fractionalization

makes a society substantially safer: a maximally fractionalized society has a conflict
risk only one quarter that of a homogenous society (Collier and Hoeffler, 581).
Yemeni civil war confirms this hypothesis, because this conflict is most characterized
by the cohesion of various groups. Firstly, in Yemeni society, tribal, religious, and
economic differences prevail, for example, there are the Houthis movement, which are
Shiites, and the Southern movement, which in turn are Sunni in this civil war. It was
the cohesion of the Houthis, their desire to overthrow the government, increase
political rights for their representatives, and poverty that prompted the protests against
the government.

The analysis of the Yemeni conflict allows us to draw some conclusions. The reasons
for the current crisis lie in the clan-tribal sphere. The reasons for the uprising of the Shiite
Houthis against the Yemeni authorities were discrimination against representatives of this
group and the socio-economic crisis in the province of Saada, which they inhabited, related to
its financing on a residual basis. In the absence of developed state institutions and the tribal
structure of society in Yemen, the departure of a strong leader did not contribute to
democratization, but led to the aggravation of inter-regional and inter-clan contradictions and
the gradual collapse of the Yemen state.

6. Conclusion as discussion

This study aims to identify the causes of the Yemeni civil war, since this conflict has
been going on for 6 years. In turn, the significance of this study is that Yemen is one of the

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most distressed countries in the world with a humanitarian crisis, where people do not have
enough simple water, the conflict worsens the situation of this state, which in 2011 was
considered as a losing state with an inefficient economy and policy, identifying the causes that
contribute to the Civil war will help build models for resolving this conflict, and in the future
building a sustainable state.

Initially, the theory of greed and Griavances was chosen for the analysis of this civil
war, since the civil war primarily involves people who are deprived of political, economic,
and social resources. After conducting research through the use of different hypotheses and
models of this theoretical framework were the factors which influenced the beginning of the
civil war, first revealed a lack of both political and economic reforms in Yemen, the Board
one and the same person for 30 years, poverty among the population, unemployment but also
low wages of the workers, secondly the religious, ethnic, tribal conflict in the country, such as
denial and political discrimination of the Huthis, Shiite Islam vs Sunni and so on., finally,
after the start of the civil war in Yemen, the intervention of Iran and Saudi Arabia, each of
which has its own goals in this conflict. All this has had an impact on this conflict and
continues to have an impact.
Thus, the conducted research has shown that the causes Of the civil War in Yemen are
rooted in human resentments and the desire for political activity, changes in their state for the
better, and building equality between various ethnic and tribal groups, since tribal and
religious factors play a special role in Yemen. The desire to achieve a thriving economy and
jobs with high wages also played a role in this conflict, because the initiators were also the
young part of the population, most of whom do not have jobs. All this suggests that huge
reforms in the political and economic spheres of governance are needed to stabilize the
situation in this region.

7. Bibliography

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444–454. doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2016.08.001

Asher Orkaby (2017). The North Yemen civil war and the failure of the Federation of South
Arabia, Middle Eastern Studies, 53:1, 69-83, DOI: 10.1080/00263206.2016.1198330

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Brehony, N. (2015). Yemen And The Huthis: Genesis Of The 2015 Crisis. Asian Affairs,
46(2), 232–250.

Brian M. Perkins (2017). Yemen: Between Revolution and Regression, Studies in Conflict &
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Cordesman Anthony H. (2017). The War in Yemen: Hard Choices in a Hard War, Center for
Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 1-17

Gurr, T.R (1970). Why men rebel, Princeton

Helen Lackner (2016). Yemen, Revolution, Civil War and Unification, by Uzi Rabi, Middle
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Jeremy M. Sharp (2019). Yemen: Civil War and Regional Intervention, Congressional
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Kronenfeld, S. and Guzansky, Y. (2014). Yemen: A Mirror to the Future of the Arab Spring,
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Marcel Serr (2017). Understanding the War in Yemen, Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs,
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Popp, R. (2015). War in Yemen: Revolution and Saudi Intervention, Center for Security
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