Economic and Social Development Department

Food and Agriculture

Organization of the
United Nations

Global Food Security

Challenges and
long-term perspective

Agricultural Development Economics Division

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Rome, September 2009
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

Main messages

 Hunger in the world is increasing

 Crises exacerbate the situation dramatically
 Important long-term challenges to agriculture as
a source of food and livelihoods
 Use emerging consensus to reduce hunger and
improve food security governance

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 2
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

Trends in world hunger

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 3
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

The current economic crisis at the core

 At the heel of soaring food prices

 Households with depleted coping mechanisms
 Global crisis, not locally bound
 However, more fundamental causes of hunger
• number of hungry has not fallen below 800 million
over the past 40 years
• even in times of economic growth and low food prices

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 4
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

Future challenges and perspectives

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 5
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

Population growth

Source: UN Population Division, from van der Mensbrugghe et al. 2009

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 6
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

Income growth

160 8
Developing country GDP (left-axis)
140 7
Developing country growth (right-axis)
120 6
100 5
High-income country growth (right-axis)
80 4
60 3
40 2
20 1
0 0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
High-income country GDP (left-axis)

Source: Simulation results with World Bank’s ENVISAGE model, from van der Mensbrugghe et al. 2009

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 7
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

How much more needs to be produced by 2050?

future 70 Agricultural production

World

past 148
Developed

future 23

past 63
Developing

future 97

past 255

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 8
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

Sources of growth in crop production

Arable land expansion Increases in cropping intensity Yield increases

100%

90%

80%
52
70% 69
71
77
60% 87 86
90
50%
18
40%

30% 6
8

20% 14 30
25
21 8
10% 12 17
9
5 2
0% -7

-10%
Wo De La su So Ea Ne
rld ve t in b-S uth st ar
lop Am ah As As Ea
ing e a ran ia ia st
co ric / No
un a Af rth
tr ric
ies a A fr i
ca

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 9
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

Water resources

 Global abundance of water

 Local shortages reaching alarming rates
 Regions without potential for land and water
expansion (Near East and North Africa, South Asia)
 Harvested irrigated land to expand by 17%, water
withdrawals by 11%.

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 10
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

Feeding the world in 2050

 Demand can be met by expanding and better

exploiting available resources
 Scenario assumes that:
• long-standing forces will continue in the long run (e.g.
population, diet shifts, urbanization)
• yield gaps can be bridged and new varieties will
further improve the ability of the world to feed itself

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 11
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

However, many questions remain

 Global scenario masks that at least 27 countries

will face undernourishment above 5% in 2050
 370 million people in developing countries would
still be hungry
 Several countries seem to have reached the limits
of agro-ecological potential to expand agriculture

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 12
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

Five main challenges

 Yields/technology
 Climate change
 Biofuels
 Hunger reduction and agricultural transformation
 Global food security governance

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 13
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

The yields challenge

 Yield increases have accounted for the majority

of production growth in recent decades
 Yields and intensification will account for 90% of
the growth in crop production
 Yield Growth for major grains:
• Decline from 1.9 to 0.7 annual growth rate (1961-2007 vs. 2005-2050)
• However potential for closing the “yield gap” is high... and achievable

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 14
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

The technology challenge

 Enormous returns to Research & Development (40-50%)

 Baseline projections assume a steady growth in yields
 But global R&D spending is too low and decreasing
• 1981-1991: 2.1%
• 1991-2000: 1.1 % (Dev. Countries: 1.9%, Ind. Countries: 0.5% )
• Huge disparities: India (6.2%), China (3.9%)

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 15
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

Annual growth rates in agricultural R&D

10

8
Annual growth rate (percentage)

0
Sub-Saharan Asia & Pacific Latin America West Asia & Developing High-income
Africa & Caribbean North Africa countries countries
-2

1976-81 1981-91 1991-2000

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 16
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

The technology challenge

 R&D adaptation for the needs of smallholders,

marginal areas and orphan crops
 Incentive structure and resource mobilization to
ensure the right technologies for problems of the
future
 Private-public partnerships for agricultural R&D
 Developing gender-balanced systems for
spreading knowledge, skills and technology

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 17
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

Climate change challenge

Impacts of climate change on crop production :
 vary significantly over time
 are geographically unevenly distributed
Aggregate impacts of projected climate change on
the global food system are relatively small.
The global balance of food demand and supply is
not likely to be challenged until middle of the 21st
century.
Autonomous adaptation will offset some warming
Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 18
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

Climate change challenge

 Atmospheric changes (CO2 fertilization) may initially

increase productivity of current agricultural land
 Climate change, will have a clearly negative impact in the
second half of the 21st century
 Impacts on land vary: Land suitability down in Africa and
Latin America but up (initially) elsewhere
 Changes in frequencies of extreme events (droughts, heat
waves, severe storms) are more troublesome in the near
future

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 19
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

Climate change challenge

 Remove key constraints to adaptation

 Explore key synergies between food security,
adaptation and mitigation (technological,
institutional, financing )
 Using payments for carbon as an important
source of funding for developing country
agriculture

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 20
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

The biofuels challenge

 Impacts of biofuels larger in the short and

medium run as second generation is developed
 Hunger reduction hampered by increased
biofuel production
 Opportunities for producers, but uneven access
to markets

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 21
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

Agricultural transformation challenge

 Agriculture’s role beyond food production

• As an engine of economic growth and poverty reduction
• As an engine of growth for the rural economy
• Even in transition countries key role to reduce poverty

 Share of agriculture generally declines with development

• Agro-industrialization
• Erosion of the comparative advantage of smallholders
• Pressure to commercialize or exit the sector

 Protect and improve livelihoods during “agricultural

transformation”

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 22
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

Governance challenge
 Create a system that promotes, supports and sustains
food security - especially for the poorest and most
marginal
 Address structural causes of food insecurity and their
institutional and governance dimensions
 Improve the management of the world agricultural system
 Address climate change and its long and short-term
challenges
 Ensure sufficient public investment in agriculture,
especially in research, extension, infrastructure and
biodiversity
Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 23
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

Towards a global food security governance

 Improve coordination and policy cohesion

between all key stakeholders
 Better address complex and interrelated issues
of global food security
 Ensure that declarations to end hunger are
converted to concrete actions

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 24
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

Conclusions
 Agriculture and food security back on the policy agenda
 Right to Food accepted as a framework for global action
 Rights to resources frameworks arising as a result
 Reform of global food security governance
 Increase public and private investment
 Sound agricultural policies and strategies
 Social protection and safety nets
 Strengthen smallholder access to resources
 Explore options for coordinated risk management

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 25
 Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations

For more information

For more information, please visit:

http://www.fao.org/economic/es-policybriefs

Rome, September 2009 Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective 26