Month 2016 2017 2018

January 1246834 1404941 1497263

February 1231209 1326228 1502557
March 1303005 1391369 1525630
April 1105170 1276611 1241564
May 1048999 1185429 1135936
June 1239110 1390124 1407273
July 1488339 1511202 1581095
August 1189209 1402735 1471506
September 1088564 1186721 1167934
October 1224822 1384658 1417609
November 1303406 1546386 1600931
December 1557876 1799438 1874122
Month 2016 2017 2018
January 12.47 14.05 14.97
February 12.31 13.26 15.03
March 13.03 13.91 15.26 Chart Title
April 11.05 12.77 12.42 20.00
May 10.49 11.85 11.36 18.00
June 12.39 13.90 14.07
16.00 No. of tourists (in lak
14.00
20.00
July 14.88 15.11 15.81 12.00
18.00
August 11.89 14.03 14.72 10.00
16.00
8.00
14.00
September 10.89 11.87 11.68
6.00
12.00
October 12.25 13.85 14.18 4.00
10.00
November 13.03 15.46 16.01 2.00
8.00
December 15.58 17.99 18.74 0.00
6.00
y y h il ay ne ly
4.00 uar u ar a rc Apr M Ju Ju g
n r
J a b M Au
2.00 Fe
0.00
QUARTER
ry ry WISE
ch riTOURIST
l ay n(IN
e LAKH
ly
ua r ua ar Ap M Ju Ju g
n b M 2016 2017 Au
60.00 Ja Fe

50.00 48
2016 201747.302018
41.01 42.21 40.86
40.00 38.52 37.85 37.66
33.93

Q130.00 33.93 38.52 37.85

Q2 37.66 41.01 42.21
Q320.00 40.86 47.30 48.93
Q4 37.81 41.23 45.25
10.00

0.00
Q1 Q2 Q3

2016 2017 2018

 Chart Title

No. of tourists (in lakhs)

ril ay ne st
Ju
ly be
r
be
r
be
r
be
r
Ap M Ju gu m to m m
Au pt
e Oc ve c e
Se No De
SEpriTOURIST
l ay n(IN
e LAKHS)
ly st be
r
be
r
be
r
be
r
A M Ju Ju gu m to m m
2016 2017 Au 2018e c e e
pt O v c
Se No De

48.93
2016 201747.302018 45.25
42.21 40.86 41.23
37.81

Q3 Q4

16 2017 2018
Month Actual SARIMA Forecast Prophet Forecast Holt's Model Forecast
Jul-18 1581095 1416556.68420602 1343788.12495061 1295884.95789711
Aug-18 1471506 1353948.68714758 1400072.07611879 1245518.6759293
Sep-18 1167934 1241774.23179568 1051544.74962254 1195152.39396148
Oct-18 1417609 1360088.88692107 1207408.30415243 1144786.11199366
Nov-18 1600931 1532197.74451157 1349576.20000979 1094419.83002585
Dec-18 1874122 1927046.14546539 1468068.34025593
Chart1044053.54805803
Title
2000000 Chart T
1800000
1600000 2500000
1400000
1200000 2000000
1000000
800000 1500000
600000
400000 1000000
200000
0 500000
Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec
0
Prophet ForecastJul-18
Actual Aug-18 Sep-18

SARIMA Forec
 Holt Winter Forecast
1520688.70922316
1321630.07537576
1121905.35874635
1280625.65167695
1381939.87235594
1597876.29196722
Chart Title

ct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

8ctual Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

SARIMA Forecast Actual

Month Model 1 Forecast Model 2 Forecast Actual_last_year
Jan-19 1583956.38655549 1603827.62313888 1497263 86693.39 106564.6
Feb-19 1564452.6595074 1605693.15719867 1502557 61895.66 103136.2
Mar-19 1593948.1974068 1662182.31952518 1525630 68318.2 136552.3
Apr-19 1315544.03373281 1466827.25226337 1241564 73980.03 225263.3
May-19 1196380.85166475 1416630.05065525 1135936 60444.85 280694.1
Jun-19 1505941.17986192 1687861.83099871 1407273 98668.18 280588.8