Professional Documents
Culture Documents
EXODUS
OF THE
RELIGIOUS
DONES
Research reveals the
size, make-up, and
motivations of the
formerly churched
population
Josh Packard, Ph.D.
Director, Social Research Lab
Assistant Professor of Sociology
University of Northern Colorado
Credits
Managing Editor: Craig Cable
Editor: Rick Edwards
Assistant Editor: Becky Helzer
Art and Design: Darrin Stoll
All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without prior
written permission from the publisher, except where noted in the text and in the case of brief quotations
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ISBN 978-1-4707-3441-1
Printed in the United States of America.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15
Executive Summary
Prepared by Josh Packard, Ph.D.
Much has been written about people who leave church. Unfortunately, most of it
has been written without any empirical evidence. This report draws on the best data
available from national survey agencies, academics, and a newly commissioned
survey1 to provide an in-depth look at the Dones—people who walk away from church
but keep their faith.
The new survey is the first ever to quantify the number of Dones in the United States.
It digs into the reasons they left and how they have been living out their faith since
leaving the institutional church. It also takes a look at the millions of people who are
currently attending church but are on their way out the door.
In order to provide context for these numbers, qualitative data is included from
Dr. Josh Packard, a sociologist and lead author of Church Refugees: Sociologists Reveal
Why People Are DONE With Church but Not Their Faith (Group, 2015). The result is
the most complete picture of the Dones that has ever been offered.
Throughout the report you’ll find in-depth profiles and explanation to go along with
the numbers. The conclusion will show how the Dones want to be re-engaged by the
institutional church—and how they do NOT want to be approached.
[1] “The Spiritual Lives of Religious Dones” was a nationally representative panel study conducted by the Social Research Lab at the
University of Northern Colorado in April 2015. Quota sampling was used during a three stage data collection process to ensure validity
1
and representation. The survey has a margin of error of =/- 1.7% with a 95% confidence interval.
Contents
Overview.................................................................................................. 3
Introduction.................................................................................................5
Methodology.............................................................................................. 7
Affiliation.............................................................................................. 8
Institutional Disengagement....................................................................12
Beliefs................................................................................................ 23
Resources............................................................................................45
Appendix............................................................................................. 47
2
Overview
In this report are detailed findings to support and explain several major conclusions.
Here are some of the most important findings from this study.
Massive numbers of people were once in the church but are now out (pages 15-16).
§§ Thirty-one percent of American adults are former churchgoers who have opted
out of organized religion altogether.
§§ Half of those who once went to church—roughly 30.5 million Americans—still
identify as Christians. These are the Dones—people who have decided to opt
out of church while retaining their faith in God and Christian identity.
3
Dones are a bridge to the Nones (pages 21-27).
§§ The Dones remain active in living out their faith after they leave the church, and they
are not necessarily doing this only with other Christians.
§§ There is a strong desire for community and a willingness to re-engage with the
church if it can provide true community.
4
Introduction
The religious landscape in the United States has undergone some seismic shifts in
recent years. In particular, Pew and other research organizations have documented
the dramatic rise of those with no religious affiliation: the Nones. They have shown
the Nones to be at their highest levels since researchers began measuring religious
affiliation. Commentators in the media and in the pulpit have rushed to make sense of
these changes, but most have been doing so with very little data or context apart from
what they encounter in Pew’s 2014 U.S. Religious Landscape Study.
This report sets out to understand the issue from a broader, more informed position.
In particular, it examines why people are suddenly disengaging with the institutional
church in America, how the trend fits into the rest of our society, and what it means for
our churches and our social fabric moving forward.
The findings presented here are primarily based on two sources: (1) first-hand
qualitative interviews for Church Refugees: Sociologists Reveal Why People Are DONE
With Church but Not Their Faith (Group, 2015); and (2) the results of a first-of-its-kind
national survey of people who have left church but retained their faith.
The data from the national survey reveal that 31 percent of American adults were
once regular church attenders who have opted out of organized religion altogether.
Roughly half of these people, or 30.5 million U.S. adults, still express a Christian
identity.
These numbers are massive, but they don’t tell the whole story. Digging deeper into
the reality behind these numbers reveals even more surprising findings. Three things
in particular run counter to the narrative of church decline that has so dominated this
conversation.
First, fixating on the single number of religious affiliation has led to some erroneous
conclusions. The trend of people opting out of religious organizations is not an
indication of deep changes in religiosity, but rather of people’s unwillingness to engage
with all types of social institutions. People who are opting out of organized religion are
part of a larger movement away from social institutions more generally. In order to stem
the tide of people walking away, churches must change to feel more like communities
and less like organizations.
5
Second, this investigation revealed an entirely new group of people who retain their
religious beliefs but have intentionally turned away from organized religion. These
people are not the Nones that we hear so much about—these are the Dones. They
are done with church but not with God. This group is large, dynamic, and powerful,
comprising roughly 30.5 million American adults. Drawing on both qualitative and
quantitative data, this report provides a general profile of the Dones and explores their
motivations for leaving church while also exploring how they are living out their faith
outside of the institution.
Third, this report reveals how many people are in the pews on any given Sunday
morning but feel like they have one foot out the door already. The Dones are a sizable
group, and if something about institutional church doesn’t change dramatically, more
people will soon be joining them.
This new understanding of religious disaffiliation as a part of larger social dynamics
gives us greater insight into how our religious institutions will likely change. As people
express great skepticism of large social institutions, those institutions—including the
church—must respond by becoming smaller, more dynamic, and more responsive.
Above all, they must listen and adapt if they are to retain their positions of prominence
and importance in our society.
There are four main sections to this report. First, the national religious landscape is
examined over time in order to get some context as to exactly what aspects of religion
in this country are changing. The next section will help understand the Dones, followed
by a look at the Almost Dones—those who are currently in church but are on their way
out. The last section digs into the empirical data once more to see what impact these
trends might have on church practice moving forward. The result is a clear picture of
a sizable and important trend developing in the church in America, plus some fresh
ideas of what the church in America can do to re-engage people who have walked
out of the building.
6
Methodology
Two distinct kinds of data were used to compile this report. Qualitative data consists
of interviews and structured observations. It is the data that make up Church Refugees,
the first book about the Dones, based on over 100 in-depth interviews. Far from being
simply stories or conversations, in-depth sociological interviews are geared toward
testing hypotheses about motivations, processes, and understandings. They reveal things
that a simple survey question never could.
For example, the decision to leave organized religion after many years of involvement
is an incredibly complex process that affects nearly all parts of a person’s life. There
is no way that a multiple choice survey question could possibly capture all of these
dynamics. Structured interviews allow for much more depth than surveys do.
Qualitative research often comes first so that a researcher can truly understand all of
the various aspects of an issue before trying to design survey questions. Without the
qualitative data, no one would even know what survey questions to ask. Of course,
qualitative studies often suffer for lack of breadth or representation. Although the data
collected for Church Refugees relies on sound qualitative sampling techniques, it cannot
be said to be truly representative of the entire nation. In order to have that kind of
certainty, a national survey is required.
Surveys gather quantitative data, and the first national survey of Dones was
conducted in April of 2015. These data give a solid understanding of how many
people are Done and which factors were most important in their decision-making.
The best social science research brings together both of these sources—the qualitative
data, which tells how and why something happens, and the quantitative data, which
describes what is happening.
7
SECTION 1: The U.S. Religious Landscape: Some Key Trends
Much has been made lately about the changing religious landscape in the United
States. Pointing to the studies by Pew that show a dramatic increase in people claiming
no religious affiliation, pundits have been scrambling to spin the numbers in their favor.
But no single number ever tells the whole story.
The paragraphs, charts, and tables included here situate the Pew study in the overall
religious context of the past decades in the United States. This analytic approach clearly
shows that while affiliation has changed, not much else has. This helps to frame
the issue more accurately as a problem with institutions, not just a
problem with religion.
Affiliation
The first thing to understand is how affiliation numbers have changed over time.
Gallup, which has been asking questions about religious preference since 1948,
reports that the total percentage of the U.S. population that identifies as Christian has
declined dramatically since 1948. Whereas 9 in 10 adults in the U.S. once identified
as Christian, that ratio is now 7 in 10.
More specifically, Gallup also shows a corresponding decline in U.S. adults who
identify as Protestant Christians (see Graphic 1).
[Graphic 1]
70%
60%
50%
1972
1982
1993
2004
2014
8
Additionally, most researchers have concluded that the declines in Catholicism would
be equally as large if not for massive immigration from countries with traditionally high
numbers of Catholics.
Much of this decline can be accounted for by the rise in Nones from 2 percent of
the population in 1948 to 16 percent of the population in 2014. While Gallup and
other polls find lower rates of people indicating “no affiliation” as their religious
preference than does the Pew research, all polls show a sharp increase in Nones
in recent decades (see Graphic 2).
[Graphic 2]
Pew Research
20%
15%
10%
Gallup Poll
5%
0%
1972
1982
1993
2004
2014
9
[Graphic 3]
10
Other causes of the decline in Christian affiliation could be a more diverse population.
More faiths are represented in larger numbers in the United States than ever before.
However, religious belief in the United States is still largely Christian belief. Non-
Christian faiths only account for approximately 6 percent of religious affiliation
in the U.S. (see Graphic 3).
This change in affiliation has rightly gained much attention, yet it gives us only a
partial picture of what is really going on in the faith lives of Americans. Other indicators
of belief show that religion is remarkably stable over the same time period.
60%
50%
40%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(Source: Gallup)
Institutional Disengagement
Increasingly, people in the United States are disengaging from traditional social
institutions. This trend was chronicled across the social spectrum by Robert D. Putnam
in his seminal work Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community.
One key number reveals much. Only 45 percent of Americans express “a great deal”
or “quite a lot” of confidence in the institution of church or organized religion. This
percentage has declined steadily since the question was first asked by Gallup in 1973,
when 65 percent of respondents indicated confidence in the institution.1
Similarly, confidence levels are at or near all-time lows for big business, the Supreme
Court, banks, public schools, Congress, television news, and newspapers. To sum it up,
Americans are simply losing trust and confidence in some of the most durable social
institutions (see Graphic 5).
12
[Graphic 5]
4.72 Business
4.7 Education
4.53 Healthcare
This suggests that the disengagement from organized religion is not something that
the church can fix while retaining its current structure. There is something much bigger
going on in society that is compelling people to leave behind old structures in general,
not just religion.
These structures need to adapt to this new reality rather than trying to convince people
to change their minds. Just as other industries have adopted new models to meet
challenges, so too must the institutional church in America.
13
An excerpt from the recent book Church Refugees, which profiles the Dones, illustrates
how the larger trend of institutional distrust and disengagement affects the church
specifically. These numbers have ramifications for ministers and other church workers
that most people are not fully grappling with just yet. A new approach to ministry is
required to address forces in our society that are beyond the control of the church.
One of the people interviewed for the Church Refugees project is a pastor whose
congregation includes a number of formerly dechurched people—Dones, in other
words. Bill is in his mid-30s and has been with his church since it started as a small
group nearly a decade ago. He has no formal training or education as a pastor but
has evolved into the role. Still, he rarely presents himself as a pastor, introducing himself
instead with one of his other vocations. This is intentional, he says, because he found
early on that identifying himself as a pastor actually worked against him in trying to
gain trust and form relationships, especially with the dechurched people his church
is attracting.
It is 100 percent the case that my role as a pastor means that people are inclined to distrust
me and my intentions. They’re inclined from the beginning to think that I’m only interested
in their money or telling them what to do. Their first thoughts are not as mine were when
I was a child: “That man is a pastor. He must be a really good person who loves me.” That
implicit trust has been completely turned upside down. As a pastor and staff, we approach
every day with the understanding that we need to focus on earning that trust back. It can
never be assumed. (Bill, 35)
According to Bill, the loss of trust in religious institutions means that trust must be
earned daily. And the work of re-establishing trust must be done long before the church
does any of the work of telling people how to live.
14
SECTION 2: DONE With Church… but Not the Faith
The data presented earlier is evidence of a larger social trend of institutional
disengagement that affects the church while personal religious belief remains relatively
stable. People are disengaging from organized religion, but many are not
leaving their faith behind. In fact, they might even be more committed
than ever.
As noted previously, these people who intentionally opt out of organized religion are
called the Dones. They’re done with the church but not with God. What turns them off
is the institutional expression of religion.
The Dones have always existed. As long as people have been coming in the front
door, others have been walking out the back door. What is different now is that the
back door seems to be wider than ever. People are fleeing organized religion—but not
because of traditional issues surrounding a loss of faith or a too-narrow spirituality.
They are fleeing because the organization itself is stifling their ability to live out their
faith. All too often, people report leaving because they feel like they have a better
chance of connecting with God outside of the church than inside the church.
Some of them continue to identify themselves on surveys as Christians. Others say
they don’t have any interest in affiliating with an institution so they select “none”
despite retaining their Christian beliefs. This next section will explore the Dones—their
motivations for leaving the church and their beliefs and activities outside of the walls of
institutional religion.
15
This is partially because the Dones are so devoted. Over half (55 percent) of the
Dones did more than simply attend services, and nearly 40 percent of the Dones were
active in their congregations as volunteers and leaders (see Graphic 9). In other words,
the Dones were very devoted to the church before leaving. This suggests that when the
Dones walk out the door, the church is losing some of its most committed members.
[Graphic 6]
Number of 210
U.S. adults
(millions)
Left Church
65 no faith affiliation
Left Church (34.5 Mil)
0
(Source: Social Research Lab at University of Northern Colorado - hereafter SRL)
16
[Graphic 7]
Dones by Gender
n Female
51.6% 48.4% n Male
(Source: SRL)
[Graphic 8]
Dones by Age
7.8%
8.3%
n 18-25 years
n 26-34 years
19.6% 20.8% n 35-54 years
n 55-64 years
n 65+ years
43.3%
(Source: SRL)
17
[Graphic 9]
1.1%
3.2%
33.7% 44.3%
17.8%
18
As a group, the Dones are uniquely positioned in our society. The annual income
of Dones falls between $50,000-$60,0001, and the average Done has at least some
college and often much more (see Graphic 10). Thirty-nine percent of Dones have a
bachelor’s degree or higher compared with just 15 percent of the affiliated Christian
population.2 Racially, 74 percent of Dones are white, 9 percent are black/African-
American and 11 percent are Hispanic (see Graphic 11).
[Graphic 10]
1% 10%
n Master’s Degree or Higher
17% n Bachelor’s Degree
n Associate’s Degree
29% n Some College
27% n High School Graduate
16% n Some High School
(Source: SRL)
[1] The U.S. Census Bureau reported in September 2014 that the U.S. real (adjusted for inflation) median household income was $51,939.
[2] Church Refugees, p. 22
19
[Graphic 11]
11.6% 3.8%
1.7%
n White (Non-Hispanic)
0.8% n Black
n Native American
n Pacific Islander
73.5% n White (Hispanic)
8.6% n Other
(Source: SRL)
Taken together, these characteristics of race, income, and education suggest that the
Dones are people who are used to having society and social institutions work for them.
When those institutions do not work for them or stifle their efforts, they have access to
the resources they need to operate outside of institutional structures. In other words,
the Dones do not need what the institutional church is currently offering in order to
do the work they feel called to do. They can—and are—creating their own structures,
opportunities, and activities.
Furthermore, as is so often true in other social movements, it’s those with the
means to opt out who leave institutions first. In the process, they create
pathways and opportunities for others to follow. In the final section of this
report, we will turn our attention to those who are still in the pews but on their way
out—a group that is much more racially diverse, of somewhat lower income, and
slightly less educated, indicating that the current trend of Dones is only the beginning.
20
Ethan’s Story1
Perhaps the best way to get a sense of the general profile of a dechurched (Done) person
is through Ethan’s story. Ethan is a 47-year-old salesperson with three children. He was
initially reluctant, he said, to be interviewed because he still felt protective of the church
and didn’t want to be seen as trashing it. “Church leaders have been through a lot lately,”
he said. “Some of it’s deserved, brought upon by their own actions, but a lot of it isn’t.
I think they’re tired of getting beat up.” He was eventually swayed by talking with his
friend who had already done an interview and convinced him that it wasn’t intended to
point out the church’s flaws.
His story is just one illustration of how embedded the dechurched often were in their
congregations. He explained how, after a childhood of church involvement, he went to
college and got involved in campus ministry before eventually making a career out of
ministry and then abandoning the “flawed structure” of the church altogether:
So I did campus ministry for years. I learned how to preach, I learned youth
ministry, learned biblical counseling, and when I got out I went back to my old
church, and they hired me as their youth pastor. Then I did assistant pastoring for
three and a half years there, and I ran a youth drop-in center that was sponsored
by United Way, where we tutored kids and had organized basketball, volleyball,
field trips, and that type of thing. I did youth group for the church, and I led
worship, and I led weddings, burials, and that sort of thing. For years I did all
of that.
When I left after a scandal with the head pastor cheating on his wife, we attended
another church a few towns over, and I was helping with the youth group there,
and then they offered me a position. For the next six years, I was an associate
pastor, and we did all the adult Christian education, children’s ministry, led
worship, pretty much a little of everything. From there it was on to Florida
following my wife’s job and on to another church which dissolved because the elders
were stealing church money, and then out to Colorado, where we got involved again.
We just can’t help getting involved when we have talents to offer and we see a need,
I guess.
Since 2010, though, when we finally left the church, we’ve just done house church
where we create and do things with others rather than for them. I’m done with the
top-down, institutional church. I thought we could fix it from within, but we got
beat up pretty bad. I know we didn’t always handle things the best way, but at the
21
same time, we kept showing up and volunteering because we felt the church was
God’s home.
I don’t think that’s the case anymore. The church is wherever God’s work is being
done, and too often the way we were treated and the things I saw happen in the
institutional church to other people just weren’t in alliance with what we thought
God wanted.
But here’s the thing: I don’t think the institutional church is filled with bad people. I
think the church in America is an inherently flawed structure that compels people
to make poor decisions. You’re basically judged on how well you can preach and the
numbers you bring in. I realize the church isn’t perfect, and it’s made up of people
who aren’t perfect, and I’m not perfect either, but the church needs to see that there
are things that are broken about the structure, not the people.
This extended excerpt from Ethan’s interview is representative of nearly all the stories
gathered in the course of writing Church Refugees. Although not every interviewee was
involved in paid ministry, nearly all of them rose to a position of leadership during
their years in the church. Often this happened in a way similar to Ethan’s experience.
They would get heavily involved in a particular congregation, move for some reason
or another and gradually, though not intentionally, begin taking on leadership roles
at the new church. At some level, this speaks to the crushing organizational demands
of running a congregation in today’s religious landscape. Talent is hard to come by,
and resources are even scarcer. It’s only natural that a congregation would latch on to
dedicated, experienced, and talented people.
However, Ethan’s story and the dozens like his reveal something about the kind of people
who generally make up the dechurched. They display an extreme level of dedication and
devotion to God and religion, and they earnestly believe that the institutional church can be
fixed and reclaimed. They believe it’s worth fighting for, right up to the point where they don’t.
22
Beliefs
The Dones are a remarkably diverse group in terms of their religious beliefs and
practices. Although it’s popular in some circles to think that the Dones are spiritually
immature or not fully committed to their faith, the data tell a completely different story.
For instance:
§§ 72 percent have sought out and found outlets for spiritual growth since leaving the
institutional church;
§§ 82.6 percent say that religion is somewhat or very important in their life;
§§ 53.6 percent of Dones say they pray daily or more often (see Graphics 12, 13,
and 14).
[Graphic 12]
71.8% n Yes
n No
28.2%
(Source: SRL)
23
[Graphic 13]
17.3%
n Very important
39.5% n Somewhat important
n Not at all important
43.1%
(Source: SRL)
24
[Graphic 14]
20.6% n Daily
53.6% n Weekly/Monthly
n Seldom/Never
25.8%
(Source: SRL)
Theologically, the Dones run the full spectrum. What is perhaps most interesting are
the Dones’ views about the Bible (see Graphic 15). Dones are not inclined toward
either fundamentalism or relativism. They are much more likely to take middle-of-the-
road theological positions, and they are substantially more likely to express uncertainty
or doubt. In other words, not only do they not need certainty from the pulpit, but they
tend to look upon such stances with skepticism. They’re much more inclined to respond
favorably to a pastor saying, “I’m not sure. Let’s look at that together,” than to a pastor
saying, “This is the way it is. End of discussion.”
25
[Graphic 15]
DONES*
The Bible is the literal The Bible is the word The Bible is a book I’m not sure./
word of God, and of God, but should written by men and I don’t know.
everything should not be taken literally, is not the word of God.
be taken literally, word for word.
word for word.
(Source: *SRL; **General Social Survey, 2010)
This position is directly related to the reasons Dones leave the church. They desire
conversation about God and theology rather than a list of predefined beliefs to be
memorized and consumed. They desire and demand to be active participants in the
construction of their own faith lives.
This theological understanding also impacts their religious practice. The desire
for conversation and questioning requires community, and these conversations in
community are the way the Dones experience and understand God.
The Dones are not looking for a bunch of nodding heads who simply affirm their
own preconceived ideas. They don’t bristle at challenging positions or theological
disagreement. Instead, they are turned off by being told what to do, think, and believe
without having any part in the conversation.
26
“I want to be in a place that welcomes disagreement. Not to disagree to be rude or nasty,
but out of legitimate differences of opinion. Being able to express those differences openly
is a more authentic experience of faith to me. I think my biggest fear is that I’m going
to get into another situation where I’m going to be the one asking questions, and I’m
going to be shuffled out the door again.”
“I have to be able to ask questions. It’s how I learn. What I don’t want is a church that
says, “Yes, we love questions. In fact, here’s a list of acceptable questions, and here are
the acceptable answers. Does God exist? Yes. Did Jesus turn water into wine? Yes. Next
question.” There’s no thought or conversation, just acceptable and unacceptable questions
and answers. That doesn’t work for me. I question things. It’s how I understand God. And
I’m quite comfortable having that come back at me. I invite that difference.”1
“I get that the church has the right to tell me if my behavior is in line with what God wants,
but it just seems to be all that it does these days. It’s like the judgment gets in the way of
everything else. I’d really like judgment to fall to the bottom of the list in terms of what
consumes the time of people who work in churches and go to churches” (Jill, 27).
27
Stifling Bureaucracy: 60 percent said that a factor in their decision to leave was
that the church bureaucracy was too stifling. For this group of people who are heavily
involved in a church, the burdensome nature of the bureaucratic church simply made
it too difficult to get things done.
“It’s like, all that time that I used to spend in endless committee meetings where we were
literally picking out the color of the new carpet or deciding on a policy for who could
have a key to which door was instantly replaced with really loving people and being
involved in my local community. I understand that any large organization has to have
some policies and procedures, but it just seemed to be all that I did. On top of that,
I’m not convinced that the church has to be a large organization” (Barry, 51).
Irrelevant Teachings: Many Dones noted that the church is disconnected from their
daily lives. They note that church and church teachings are not where they find God
in their lives. (See the responses to the statements “The church is not where I encounter
God,” “I didn’t like the lecture style of preaching,” and “Church teachings were not
relevant for my life.”
“Even when I was in church, it was never the thing that mattered in my life in terms
of encountering God. God was revealed to me much more in the deep and intimate
relationships I had with others in my life. Now that I’m out, some friends of mine and I
get together and read religious books together and talk. Those people, those conversations,
and the things we read are more relevant for my life than any sermon ever was. God is
present in those conversations more than he ever was in lecture from a pastor. I know
that’s not the case for everyone, but it has certainly been the case for me” (Melinda, 43).
28
[Graphic 16]
29
What Are They Doing?
Upon leaving organized religion, Dones are generally finding sources of spiritual
fulfillment. Over 70 percent of the Dones said that they have managed to find outlets
for spiritual growth since leaving organized religion. Some of them weren’t finding
relevant or engaging messages in the church and found what they needed outside
the institution.
“I feel like my pastor just wants to talk AT me. I mean, really, I don’t know if he knows
this, but I can read. I don’t mean to be sarcastic, but why do I need to show up every
Sunday morning at the same inconvenient time just to hear him read what is effectively
a blog post? We never did anything together there, we just collectively listened to the
same guy read something and then we collectively went back to our individual homes.
If that’s what it’s going to be, I’ll just get my teaching elsewhere. I mean, honestly, how is
it 2015 and the church is still delivering content the same way it did in 1815? It makes no
sense. It’s like they’ve looked at all the research about how to teach effectively and all of
the new media sources and said ‘meh’ and just ignored it all” (Tony, 36).
Many others report that they turned to a plethora of resources from digital media to a
weekly group meal for spiritual fulfillment. Several even mentioned being more engaged
with local nonprofits or nature. The opportunities, it appears, for deep theological
understanding and engagement with God are endless.
When active, committed people opt out of the institutional church, it often frees up
substantial amounts of time. When Dones were asked to describe what they were doing
since leaving the church, the three most common responses were:
Family. Time spent getting ready for and attending church was now replaced with
family time.
Community. People said that they were more engaged in their local communities,
especially with groups that had no religious affiliation or crossed faith boundaries
(for example, a local food bank).
Relaxing. Modern life is incredibly stressful. In the wake of stagnant wages and
people working multiple jobs—and with kids involved in sports and school programs—
many parents reported using their free time to simply relax.
A deeper look into these trends reveals that it’s reasonable for Americans to feel
exhausted and in need of family time on a Sunday morning. Drawing on data from the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Pew Research Center produced the following chart, showing
that real wages have been basically flat for decades (see Graphic 17).
30
[Graphic 17]
Stagnant Wages
Average hourly wages seasonally adjusted—2014 Dollars
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
0
1964 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014
(Source: Pew Research Center)
These flat wages have combined with an increase in worker hours over the same time
period as people pursue expanded opportunities for college education, longer retirements,
or participate in our consumer-driven culture. The Economic Policy Institute reports that
between 1979 and 2007, the average worker increased her/his hours worked per year
by 181 (see Graphic 18).
Further, it reports that much of this increase is concentrated among the most vulnerable
groups: the poor and middle class, and women. These are groups of people who
historically have very high rates of church attendance and participation.
31
Perhaps it should not come as a surprise that people, especially families, are exhausted
on Sunday mornings and use any free time they can get to relax and spend together.
Instead of looking upon them as lazy, we should see instead a picture of people who
are committed to their families and to providing emotional and financial security for
themselves and others.1
Rather than castigating these people for not going to church, the church would do
well to figure out how to support them in the wake of these new and growing pressures
surrounding income and time. It simply isn’t the case that Americans have their priorities
wrong or that they don’t care about church; it’s that their first priorities are to provide for
themselves and their families. If their basic needs are not being met, and if the church isn’t
helping them to meet those needs, then nothing else really matters to them.
[Graphic 18]
2,000
1,915 hours 1,868 hours
1,900
1,729 hours
1,800
1,687 hours
1,700
n Men
n All
1,600 1,438 hours n Women
1979 1987 1991 1999 2007
(Source: Economic Policy Institute)
[1] For more details see Economic Policy Institute report, January 2013.
http://www.epi.org/publication/ib348-trends-us-work-hours-wages-1979-2007
32
Are They Coming Back?
All this data establishes that Christians are opting out of organized religion in record
numbers as a part of a general process of institutional disengagement. The natural
question to ask is whether or not they are coming back. Can the church do anything to
reclaim those who have left and get them to return to the pews on Sunday mornings?
The short answer is: no, they’re not coming back—at least not to what they left. Just a
little over 63 percent of the Dones said that they are “not likely” to become involved in
an organized church again. Only 8.8 percent say that they are “very likely” to do so.
Qualitative data from several sources confirms that although the Dones might re-engage
in institutional church, they are not inclined to come back to the same kind of place that
they left (see Graphics 19 and 20).
However, very few of the Dones are angry with institutional church or distrustful of its
motivations, so they are generally willing to re-engage as long as the church is doing
what they see as God’s work in the world. But re-engagement will not take the form of
returning to Sunday morning worship services to sit in a pew and listen to a sermon. In
order to re-engage with the Dones, the church needs to offer a different model of church
and a different understanding of its role in facilitating community for all Christians.
There is no need to abandon the current model completely, but there needs to be room
in existing structures for some radically different kinds of activity.
33
[Graphic 19]
8.8%
n Not likely
n Somewhat likely
27.8% n Very likely
63.3%
(Source: SRL)
[Graphic 20]
42.9% 18.8%
28.7% 26.1%
38.5% 48.7% 60.9%
57.1% 62.6% 75%
18-25 yrs 26-34 yrs 35-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 65+ yrs
n Not likely n Not likely n Not likely n Not likely n Not likely
n Somewhat likely n Somewhat likely n Somewhat likely n Somewhat likely n Somewhat likely
n Very likely n Very likely n Very likely n Very likely n Very likely
(Source: SRL)
34
SECTION 3: On Their Way Out—The Almost Dones
In addition to the tens of millions of Dones in the United States, on any given Sunday
there are 7 million people sitting in the pews who are on their way out
the door with no intention of returning. These people are the Almost
Dones.
This research reveals a profile for the Almost Dones that is markedly similar to the
Dones. The frustrations are the same, even if they’re felt at a somewhat lower level.
The important thing to understand about this group is that it is eternally replicable. The
qualitative research in Church Refugees confirms what is suggested here: As soon as
these 7 million leave the church, other congregants will increasingly be asked to fill the
roles of the people who left. Before long, they will be subjected to the same stresses and
frustrations that the current Almost Dones face.
Some key areas of concern, however, affect the Almost Dones more than the Dones. In
particular, the Almost Dones are more likely to report being turned off by extreme social
and political stances taken by churches. Additionally, and perhaps relatedly, the Almost
Dones are concerned that churches are not involved enough in their local communities,
and this is a major factor in driving them away from organized religion (see Graphic 21).
35
[Graphic 21]
(Source: SRL)
The sociological trend that is developing is one where there is a constant supply of
7 million people transitioning out of the institutional church because of the very nature
of the institutional church. The only thing that will stem this tide is if churches make some
alterations to their normal ways of operating.
In particular, the national survey of Dones reveals that teachings need to be more
participatory and relevant, people need to have greater ability to follow their calling,
and bureaucracy needs to be minimized in favor of participation and a flatter hierarchy.
36
Additionally, there are a few key differences between the Dones and Almost Dones
which suggest that the religious landscape will continue to change for some time.
Most notably, the Almost Dones are much more theologically conservative. Whereas
only about one-fourth of Dones express a fundamentalist viewpoint of the Bible, over
half of Almost Dones take the position that the Bible is the literal word of God (see
Graphic 22). In other words, in the coming years the phenomenon of the
Dones will affect evangelical and conservative churches more heavily
than it will the mainline Protestant denominations or Catholic and
Orthodox churches.
Males and females comprise about an equal number of Dones, while male Almost
Dones appear to slightly outnumber females (compare Graphic 7 with Graphic 23).
Whether this will prove to be a significant difference remains to be seen; however, the
important point is that both men and women feel a good deal of frustration with their
current church experience.
[Graphic 22]
The Bible is the literal word of God, The Bible is the word of God, The Bible is a book written by I’m not sure./I don’t know.
and everything should be taken but should not be taken literally, men and is not the word of God.
literally, word for word. word for word.
(Source: SRL)
37
[Graphic 23]
n Male
43% 56% n Female
(Source: SRL)
The Almost Dones are significantly more racially diverse than the Dones. The
percentage of non-white Almost Dones increases by 17 percent over the Dones.
This suggests that future Dones will be a very racially diverse group, affecting all
denominations (see Graphic 24; compare with Graphic 11).
Taken together, these data indicate that the phenomenon of people opting out of
organized religion will not end when the current 7 million finally decide to leave. As
a group, the Almost Dones will be expanding, not contracting. Furthermore, they are
on course to expand their breadth rather than dig more deeply into already affected
churches and denominations.
38
[Graphic 24]
8.5%
n White (Non-Hispanic)
15.5% n Black
n Native American
4.2% 56.3% n Pacific Islander
(Source: SRL)
39
Profile of an Almost Done1
“I’m in, for now. But I don’t know how much longer I’ll be here. I had high hopes for
this church when I started, but the longer I’m here, the more I just keep running into
the same problems. The thing that bothers me most is that there is so much potential
in my church.
We have this amazing building, we have all of these people who will give money, we
have people who will donate time, show up on a moment’s notice—whatever you
ask, really. But all we seem to ask them to do is to listen passively and build up the
kingdom of this church, not the kingdom of God.
Just last month, for example, the building committee that I sit on had a major workday
to pull weeds, make some needed repairs—just basic building-care sort of stuff.
Tuesday nights were the time that worked best for everyone, so there we were after
work, over a dozen of us trying to take care of this building. As I walked in, I noticed
that the three pastors were sitting around doing their weekly sermon prep meeting
where they hash out what the teaching will be for that week. I can’t even tell you how
much I would have liked to be a part of that conversation.
Maybe I should have more humility about this, and I really don’t mind pulling weeds,
but I want those conversations, too. So I don’t know. I don’t know how much longer
I can sustain this. I’m happy to help, but I’d like to be part of a community, not just a
dollar in the collection plate and a pair of hands on call.
And no, I’m not really sure who I could talk to about this. People are always interested
in you when you start going somewhere or if you’re thinking about attending, but at
this point, I’m not sure that anybody would notice or care except that they’d have to fill
another couple of committee slots.”
40
SECTION 4: What Can Be Done?
Many in the church will understandably want to know what can be done to keep
people from becoming Dones or to re-engage those who have left. This research has
revealed some good starting places for how to consider what might be done about
the Dones.
First, the number-one turnoff for Dones when they are approached by people who
want them to come back to church is an overemphasis on money. The constant quest
for funds reminds the Dones of the kind of structures they were fleeing in the first place.
Second, one cannot overestimate the sensitivity of the Dones to recruitment tactics.
If anything feels like an approach just to get them to come to church, they will run the
other direction—fast. It has been a common practice for years now to evangelize “in
place” by making friends with co-workers, classmates, and other people in your life
with the ultimate goal of inviting them to church. One speaker at a church planting
conference put it this way: “Invite them to dinner. Or better yet, get invited to their
house for dinner. Eventually after the trust has been built up, you can introduce church
into the conversation casually.”
In Church Refugees, these are called “shadow missions,” and the Dones simply aren’t
having it. As one respondent explained, “If you want to have dinner with me, just have
dinner with me. I’ll be there. But if I think for a second you’re trying to trick me into a
friendship just so you can pump up your pew numbers, then I’m not really sure we need
to talk anymore.” The Dones are sensitive to these tactics because in many cases, they
employed them for years when they were in the church. Now they see them as a waste
of time and an impediment to the pursuit of true, meaningful relationships that have no
ulterior motives.
What the Dones want more than anything else are genuine, authentic relationships
that form the basis of a meaningful community where thoughts, ideas, doubts, and
action can be shared. It really is that simple. The church has been great at creating
those things over its long history. It doesn’t need a new model. It just needs a slight
refresh. What worked decades ago isn’t going to work now.
Churches need to listen deeply and carefully to what the Dones are saying, not
because they point out a fundamental flaw in the church or in the people who run
churches, but because they care deeply and passionately about all forms of church
and they pursue God fervently and actively. Churches have the ability to bring people
together to do more for God combined than they could have ever done alone. The
Dones remind us that the form of that activity can take many different shapes but that
ultimately God’s spirit cannot be contained by one model.
41
In addition to the quantitative evidence presented above, the findings in Church
Refugees confirm that the Dones are not interested in returning to the same structures
and systems that they left. Additionally, it is clear that they are not leaving to form new
structures and systems. The excerpt below helps to frame and clarify an approach to
understanding the often painful choices that Dones have made.
“How do your beliefs impact your daily life? How do you live out your faith outside of
church? Can you imagine a church you’d come back to? What would that look like?”
Their answers varied widely, but there were some common themes.
Some have left and aren’t coming back. They’re not willing to be re-engaged. They can’t
even begin to imagine a church they’d like. Their histories are so filled with truly awful
things that returning would be irrational and unhealthy. They aren’t weaker Christians
than those who stayed. They aren’t less faithful. They aren’t backsliders or spiritually
immature. They have simply endured too much in the institutional church and see no
reason, theologically or practically, to continue in that relationship.
Probably the best thing people in the church can do for them is to be open to hearing
their stories without judgment or ulterior motives, hug them, and apologize.
But the message…is not that people have left the church and aren’t coming back. The
people who’ve left and cannot imagine a way back to organized religion comprise a
relatively small group. Fewer than a dozen of our respondents were in this category.
Instead, the vast majority of our respondents were either actively looking for the right
circumstances to re-engage with a church, creating a new church paradigm themselves,
or at least open to the idea that something could come along.
Perhaps most important, they were able to tell us what it would have taken to keep them
engaged with their churches before they decided to leave. A lot of their answers sound
very much like Chloe’s:
42
I’d like to be in a church that focuses on your value as a person and your value to
the community as opposed to what you believe and who you are. I grew up with the
idea of churches being about belief and a certainty about it. But I think churches
should encourage rich relationships and thinking for yourself, and they should be
open to changing their own thinking as they recognize that there are many ways to
think that are equally valid as opposed to judging people. Am I looking for a church
that “fits” my beliefs? No, not necessarily. I’m just looking more for a church that’s
accepting of everyone and accepting of questions. A church that recognizes that,
you know, when a person says we’re in different places spiritually, it doesn’t create
a hierarchy of people. It doesn’t say, “Okay, you’re a baby Christian. I’m the senior
pastor; I’m in leadership. You’re just a congregant.”
Stories like Chloe’s reveal a willingness and even a desire to re-engage by many
of the Dones. They recognize that churches still have access to vast resources and an
ability to organize people for mission. However, they will only engage to the extent
that the church can support their already ongoing efforts at creating community, doing
important work in their local towns and cities, and pursuing their own understanding
of God’s call on their lives. Another excerpt from Church Refugees points toward some
ways that churches can help the Dones re-engage with organized religion (the key is
moderation so that existing congregations aren’t turned upside down and drive away
those who currently attend):
43
Four Strategies To Encourage Re-Engagement1
Invite participation—with limits. Identify key ways people can participate meaningfully
with minimal barriers to entry. Give them some control over organizational resources,
such as staff time and money, with little or no oversight. Trust your community.
Be truly relational. Devote staff time and resources to knowing and supporting people
rather than creating and maintaining programs. Do things with congregants rather
than for congregants. Offering programs leads to a service-provider mentality wherein
congregants feel the staff exists to serve them. Being in relationship with people means
supporting their work and doing things with them as partners. It means working on
other people’s ideas as if they were your own.
Impact your community…and be impacted. Be involved locally at the grassroots level. Need
and unfairness are everywhere. Work to be a change agent. Churches often try to do this
as mission work or outreach that “we” do for “them.” Instead, allow the celebrations and
struggles of your local community to change and shape your congregation.
44
Resources
Slowing or preventing (or even stopping?) the exodus from church depends upon
accurately identifying the causes of that exodus. The research behind this summary
clearly identifies those causes. Furthermore, the four strategies to encourage re-
engagement in the preceding section point in a hopeful direction because they describe
how churches can meet the needs of Dones and Almost Dones—and in the process
strengthen the health of the church.
What remains to be done is actually implementing strategies like those mentioned
above. So, in concluding this executive summary, the resources below are offered as
a next step in response to the scientific information on the Dones and Almost Dones.
A more in-depth treatment of the four strategies for re-engagement can be found
in Church Refugees by Josh Packard and Ashleigh Hope. It plumbs the depths of the
phenomena of the Dones and provides details and examples of what the four strategies
might look like in the context of a local congregation.
Church leaders seeking to understand and address these issues should also pay
attention to the three themes this report identified as of particular importance to
the Dones and Almost Dones: (1) community engagement; (2) the style of sermons/
messages during worship; and (3) how involved people feel in living out their calling.
Here are some Group Publishing resources that can be helpful in addressing the first
two topics:
The Externally Focused Church by Eric Swanson and Rick Rusaw. Learn from churches
that have made serving their communities a priority by using the resources they already
have to make community service a part of their DNA.
45
Diagnostic Survey. All three themes mentioned previously are included in a diagnostic
survey that churches can use to assess the likelihood of people in the congregation
becoming Dones or Nones (see Appendix). This is adapted from the survey instrument
that the Social Research Lab at the University of Northern Colorado used to gather
the data for this report. Results from this survey may be compared to the national
data to determine a congregation’s leanings and to get a sense of how many current
members might be Almost Dones. It is recommended that this survey be administered
to a congregation electronically via email, using SurveyMonkey or another free survey
service that can provide anonymity.
On a more general level, the predicament and promise of the American church
is further analyzed and possible solutions are offered in these resources from
Group Publishing:
Future of the Church Summit. This conference offers insights into trends that are
shaping tomorrow’s church. Discover why church attendance is declining and what
can be done to reverse the trend. Explore different models for being the church and
new approaches to ministry to reach the people not attending church.
www.TheFutureofTheChurch.com
Why Nobody Wants to Go to Church Anymore: And How 4 Acts of Love Will Make
Your Church Irresistible by Thom and Joani Schultz. Exposes the church practices that
are driving people away and thwarting spiritual growth. Also reveals what can bring
them back—the four keys to reaching the “unchurched” and the “dechurched.”
Why Nobody Wants to Be Around Christians Anymore: And How 4 Acts of Love Will
Make Your Faith Magnetic by Thom and Joani Schultz. Describes the reasons Christians
need a reputation makeover and how to draw people into a meaningful relationship by
practicing four simple acts of love—Radical Hospitality, Fearless Conversation, Genuine
Humility, and Divine Anticipation.
When God Left the Building is a documentary film that reports on the social upheaval
resulting from 4,000 church closures every year. It visits dying churches as well as
innovative new forms of church that are thriving. These range from a ministry in a
Pennsylvania pub to an outreach in Los Angeles that brings joy to skid-row moms.
www.WhenGodLeftTheBuilding.com
46
APPENDIX
The following survey is intended to get a sense of the culture in our congregation.
For each question, please answer based on your personal experiences at [congregation
name]. Please note that all responses are anonymous, and only aggregated responses
will be reported. No individual data will be shared.
47
If you currently attend our church, how involved are you?
mm I attend services but nothing more.
mm I attend services and some events or a small group.
mm I volunteer my time to serve in the church’s ministries.
mm I am heavily involved as a leader or on staff in the congregation.
My church is welcoming.
48
In your opinion, is our church engaged enough in our local
community?
mm Yes
mm No
49