Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Submitted to
Farhana Yasmin
Lecturer
Faculty of Business Studies
Bangladesh University of Professionals
Submitted by
Ulfat Murshed Tamanna (16221003)
Tasmiah Binte Noor (16221005)
Rifat Ibna Lokman (16221007)
Tasnim Ansari Hridi (16221009)
Section- A
Department of Business Administration in Finance & Banking.
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Letter of Transmittal
16 October, 2018
Dear Miss,
We would like to report you that you assigned us with a group term paper for the course Money
and Banking (Course Code: FIN3204) and the topic is “The Impacts of Non-Performing Loan on
Profitability: An Empirical Study on Banking Sector of Dhaka Stock Exchange”. We have tried
our best to work on it and to create a successful term paper.
We earnestly hope that this term paper will meet your specifications and satisfaction.
Sincerely Yours
Section-A
Department of Business Administration in Finance and Banking
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Acknowledgement
We would like to express our gratitude to all the people that were involved both directly and
indirectly in preparation of this term paper. It is made possible through the help and support from
everyone including our teacher and friends. Especially, allow us to dedicate our acknowledgement
of gratitude toward the following significant advisors and contributors.
First and foremost, we would like to thank our teacher Farhana Yasmin for giving us the
opportunity to initiate this report. And we would also thank her for giving us this term paper topic.
This gave us the experience on how to cooperate and engage ourselves in a serious project.
Finally, we sincerely thank our families for their help and support.
Thank You.
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Executive Summary
In the findings the present scenario of NPL in Bangladesh along with its effect and causes have
been mentioned. Through analysis it was found that banks profitability significantly depends on
its non-performing loan.
Lastly some recommendations have been mentioned which could help reduce the growing problem
NPL in Bangladesh.
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Table of Contents
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Chapter 1: Introduction
Banking system of Bangladesh has been going through a continuous process of development since
the 2000. At the moment the number of banks operating in Bangladesh stand at 56, all of which
are under the purview of the Central Bank of Bangladesh, Bangladesh Bank. In the last ten years
or so, there has been rapid growth in the banking sector with many new banks operating in the
country for the first time.
Although the Central Bank does an excellent job of the former, there has not been any
comprehensive industry-wide banking performance measurement.
Ever since Bangladesh became a signatory to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) of the
United Nations, the economic policies of the Bangladesh Government have been focused on two
things: economic growth or more precisely growth of the GDP and further integration into the
international financial system. In order to achieve the latter, Bangladesh Bank has been following
a more modernized approach towards developing the Monetary Policy.
One of the features of the Monetary Policy goals of Bangladesh Bank has been a greater control
of the financial system. In order to achieve that, the banking industry has been streamlined into
compliance of the regulatory body of the Bangladesh Bank. The financial system has been
centralized and modernized in order to create a more accurate picture of the economic situation of
the Bangladesh economy.
The performance of the banks is depending on the nonperforming loans and default loans. This
requires more analysis on the performance of the banks where this listed banks correlated to the
stock market performance.
The goal of this study is to analyze the situation about the non-performing loans in the banking
sector of Bangladesh Stock Exchange which would measure the banking. However, caution is
required in when considering any predictions- the future is always uncertain. However, the analysis
provided in measuring the current performance would be indicative of the actual performance of
the individual banks.
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1.1 Justification
Through this term paper we strive to give the readers a complete illustration of the impact of the
nonperforming loan (NPL) on profitability of banking sector. This term paper is focused on the
time series scenario of non-performing loans (NPLs), its growth, provisions and relation with
banks profitability.
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1.4 Limitations
1) The study does not based on consideration of all banks operating in Bangladesh or all schedule
banks.
4) The analyzing and findings of the study is based on short term work experience which may arise
the question about the quality of report.
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Chapter 2: Literature Review
The Banking system in Bangladesh is depending on the liquidity, profitability and performance of
the Banks. But the situation created by the banks’ lending decision which is very important issue
for the banks because it determine the future profitability and performance of the bank after
providing loans to the customer where a portion goes into bad debt. Gradually, the bad debt called
as a default in different cases. Recently banks are becoming more and more conscious in customer
selection to avoid the negative impact of bad loan or non-performing loan. The issue of
nonperforming loans (NPLs) has gained increasing attentions in the last few decades. Amounts of
bad loans are alarmingly increasing in not only the developing and under developed countries but
also in developed countries.
Profit efficiency of large commercial banks is by accounting for non-performing loans. Although
non-performing loans are negatively related to banks’ profit efficiency, it is not statistically
significant (Fan & Shaffer, 2004).
Pre-election has an influencing power in the regulatory side of the financial sector. The
Government and Bangladesh Bank appear to be under pressure from certain quarters due to this.
This becomes evident with the relaxation of the guidelines issued by Bangladesh Bank on
defaulters accessing fresh loans. This is clearly not an easy environment to operate in and specific
steps should be taken to prevent the situation from further deteriorating and undermining the
banking sector (Wallich, 2006).
An empirical result of econometric model based on a study on Guyana show that GDP growth is
inversely related to non-performing loans, suggesting that an improvement in the real economy
translates into lower non-performing loans. We also find that banks which charge relatively higher
interest rates and lend excessively are likely to incur higher levels of non-performing loans
(Khemraj & Pasha, 2006).
The presence of an alarming amount of NPLs both in the Nationalized Commercial Banks (NCBs)
and in the Development Financial Institutions (DFIs), along with maintenance of inadequate loan
loss provisions, diminishes the overall credit quality of Bangladesh. Poor enforcement of laws
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relating to settlement of NPLs, followed by insufficient debt recovery measures on the part of the
banks, has also aggravated the financial malaise (Adhikary, 2007).
The loan performance is put into relation with macroeconomic indicators such as nominal interest
rate, inflation rate, change in real GDP, economic growth, unemployment, and the change in terms
of trade. One of the problems of such approach, taking macroeconomic variables as exogenous is
that they are concurrently affected by a distress in the banking sector (Foglia, 2008).
In making lending decisions, banks are assumed to react differently to NPL ratios above or below
a threshold. With NPLs above the threshold has an adverse effect on lending. Bank’s lending
behavior could restrain economic activity, especially in periods of stress when NPLs are high
(Tracey, 2011); (Sinkey & Greenawalt, 1991).
Non-performing loans are increasing due to lack of risk management, which threatens the
profitability of banks. This study provides suggestion that banking sector can avoid their non-
performing loans by adopting methods suggested by the central bank of perspective country
(Haneef & Riaz, 2012).
All the selected independent variables (Real GDP per Capita, Inflation, and Total Loans as
independent variables) have significant impact on the depended variable(Non-Performing Loan
Ratio), however, values of coefficients are not much high. Banks should control and amend their
credit advancement policy with respect to mentioned variables to have lower non-performing loan
ratio (Saba, Kouser, & Azeem, 2012); (Dash, 2010).
To bit simultaneous equation regression results clearly indicate that higher non-performing loan
reduces cost efficiency and lower cost efficiency increases non-performing loans. The result also
support the hypothesis of bad management proposed by Berger and De Young (1992) that poor
management in the banking institutions results in bad quality loans, and therefore, escalates the
level of non-performing loans (Calice, 2012).
The purpose of the study is to identify the actual situation in the banks depending on the net interest
margin and non-performing loan. The analysis of the banks is depending on the banking sector in
Dhaka Stock Exchange. The limitations for the study are not consideration of all banks operating
in Bangladesh or all schedule banks. Further study will be evaluating under the time series and
overall industry based analysis.
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Chapter 3: Research Methodology
Secondary data has been used for the study. For the analysis, 30 listed commercial banks i.e. AB
Bank Limited, Al-Arafah Islami Bank, Bank Asia Limited, BRAC Bank Limited, City Bank,
Dhaka Bank, Dutch-Bangla Bank, Eastern Bank, Export Import (Exim) Bank of Bangladesh, First
Security Islami Bank Limited, ICB Islamic Bank Limited, IFIC Bank, Islami Bank, Jamuna Bank
Limited, Mercantile Bank Limited, Mutual Trust Bank Limited, National Bank Limited, National
Credit and Commerce Bank Limited, One Bank Limited, Premier Bank Ltd., Prime Bank, Pubali
Bank, Rupali Bank, Shahjalal Islami Bank Ltd., Social Islami Bank Limited, Southeast Bank,
Standard Bank Limited, Trust Bank Limited, United Commercial Bank Limited and Uttara Bank
are considered as the sample.
For this study, data has been collected from the annual reports of the selected banks. The collected
data has been processed & analyzed manually with the help of electronic device.
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3.3 Hypotheses of the Study
Ho: there is no significant impact of Non-Performing Loan (NPL) on Profitability (Net Interest
Margin).
H1: There is significant impact of Non-Performing Loan (NPL) on Profitability (Net Interest
Margin) of listed commercial banks at Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE).
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Chapter 4: Findings
In the regression analysis, we take net Interest margin as dependent variable and nonperforming
loan ratio, loan deposit ratio & capital adequacy ratio as independent variable.
Dependent Variable:
For this paper, Net Interest Margin (NIM) is considered as the dependent variable. Net interest
margin (NIM) denotes the difference between the interest income earned and the interest paid by
a bank or financial institution relative to its interest-earning assets like cash. For a bank, if the non-
performing assets (NPAs) are rising, the interest earned would fall and the NIM will decline.
Meanwhile, a higher NIM would increase the profitability of the lender.
Net Interest Margin = (Investment Income – Interest Expenses) / Average Earning Assets
Independent Variable:
Non-Performing Loans (NPL) ratio, which is calculated by dividing non-performing loans to total
loans and advances; it is used as an indicator of credit risk. The higher the NPL ratio, the poorer
the credit quality and, therefore, the higher the risk that more loan loss will be charged against
income.
Capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is the ratio of capital to the sum of a risk-weighted bank’s assets.
This ratio measures the amount of a bank’s capital relative to the amount of its risk-weighted credit
exposure. In the context of this thesis, CAR is defined as the ratio of Shareholders Funds or equity
to Total Assets.
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Loan Deposit Ratio (LDR) is positively associated with bank performance. In general the loan-
deposit ratio is measures bank’s liquidity as well as profitability of the bank. The ratio is calculated
by dividing the total amount of loans, by total amount of deposits. A high LDR indicates two
things, firstly the bank is issuing out more of its deposits in the form of interest bearing loans;
secondly the bank generates more income.
1. Lack of business experience: Normally banks do not finance in the projects where the key
personnel do not have enough background in that particular business. When banks finance in
the projects here the key personnel lack relevant business experience, it becomes risky for the
bank. Probability of failure in these sort of projects tend to be higher.
2. Unwillingness to Pay: This is one of the most common reasons behind default culture in
Bangladesh. It can happen in some situations like when security-backing loan is weak and
customer feels that defaulting the loan will not harm him much or when cash flow from the
business is not impressive, people are unwilling to repay the loans.
3. Non-attractive Industry: Sometimes non-attractive industry acts as primary cause of loan
default. Companies operating in non-attractive industries have higher probability of
performing poor. Because of poor financial performance, company’s cash flow gets affected
which contributes in defaulting bank loan.
4. Strong Competition: Strong competition does not directly contribute in defaulting loan.
Strong competition takes place when many companies enter into an industry where the industry
cannot accommodate so many companies. So the inefficient companies find it difficult to make
profit and sale their product. Once they fail to make profit, the company is likely to default its
loan installment in the bank.
5. Poor Management capability: Before sanctioning a loan, banks look into the matter that how
the management of the company is. If the bank feels that the management is capable enough
to successfully run the business and utilize bank finance, then bank agree to finance otherwise
not. Even sometimes banks sets conditions like some of the key personnel must not quit the
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organization before repayment of the loan. Managerial capability plays vital role in repaying
bank loan. The more professional the management is, the less is the probability of defaulting
loan.
6. Delayed Disbursement of Fund: Even after assessment of the proposal and taking positive
decision, banks do not disburse funds until security documentation formalities are completed.
As a result business do not get fund when actually it requires it. Some of the defaulters
complained about subsequent disbursements.
7. Lack of Proper Monitoring: Through monitoring lenders come to know that whether their
fund is being used for the desired purpose or not. Sometimes disbursed money is used for
purposes other than the specific areas. In that case risk of loan default gets higher. Therefore,
banks monitor activities of the borrower whether the fund is being properly utilized or business
is generating enough cash flow or not.
8. Lack of taking Proper Action: If there is any exception then corrective action needs to be
taken. If corrective actions are taken on time chance of default loan reduces. When Customer
misses one installment, concerned officer of the bank must visit the customer and understand
where the problem lies. If proper action is taken, probability of loan default is reduced. But
proper actions are not taken and these causes loan default.
1. NPL can lead to efficiency problem for the banking sector. It is found by a number of
economists that failing banks tend to be located far from the most-efficient frontiers, because
banks do not optimize their portfolio decisions by lending less than demanded.
2. There is a negative relationship between the non-performing loans and performance efficiency.
So, increase in NPL hampers the performing loan.
3. NPL creates the Credit Crunch situation. Credit crunch is a phenomenon that banks ration loan
disbursement and new credit commitments in order to protect, but add more risks. Credit
crunch also increases the rate of NPL.
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Chapter 5: Analysis
Regression analysis is used to study the relationship between two or more variables. Moreover,
the regression technique is used to observe changes in the dependent variable with changes in the
independent variables.
For analyzing the banking industry of Bangladesh we took three independent variables and one
dependent variable. Moreover, this analysis consists 90 observations which is three years (2015-
2017) of data of 30 listed banks of Bangladesh.
Independent Variable: Non-performing loan Ratio, Capital Adequacy Ratio, Loan to Deposit
Ratio.
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In this regression analysis:
𝑹𝟐 = 𝟏𝟑. 𝟎𝟗𝟕%
It measures how close the data are to the fitted regression line. The value of 𝑅 2 is always between
0 to 100. In other others it measures the number of variation that is explained compare to total
variation. The higher the 𝑅 2 is , the better the data fits in the model. In our case the 𝑅 2 results to
be low which isn’t that good.
P-Value:
0.05 <P-value: When the P-value gets lower than 0.05 it concludes that the variable has significant
relation with the dependent variable.
P-value > 0.05: When the P-value gets higher than 0.05 it concludes that the variable has
insignificant relation with the dependent variable.
In this case Non-performing loan has significant relation and others don’t.
Assume,
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If the coefficients are 0, then we may conclude that the Net Interest margin will be 4.55990
regardless of the amount of Non-performing loan ratio, loan deposit ratio & Capital adequacy ratio.
The coefficient 𝒃𝟏 = -0.20997 expresses that if the non-performing loan increases by 1 percent,
Net interest margin will be decreased by 0.020997% because of existing a negative relationship
between non-performing loan & net interest margin along with the condition that the other things
especially the other independent variables remain same.
The coefficient 𝒃𝟐 = -0.07430 expresses that if the capital adequacy ratio increases by 1 percent,
Net interest margin will be decreased by 0.07430% because of prevailing negative relationship
between the Capital adequacy ratio & Net interest margin along with the condition that the other
things especially the other independent variables remain same.
The coefficient 𝒃𝟑 = 0.00972 expresses that if the loan to deposit ratio increases by 1 percent, Net
profit margin will also be increased by 0.00972% because of prevailing positive relationship
between the loan to deposit ratio & Net interest margin along with the condition that the other
things especially the other independent variables remain same.
Bangladesh is the 12th ranked nation in terms of non-performing loan ratio (NPRL) in the word
having a ratio of 10.78% Though state-owned bank’s NPLR crossed above 27% which is very
much alarming.
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Recently our honourable finance minister Abul Maal Abdul Muhith said, “If the Bank’s average
NPLR stands below 10%, that bank assumed to be safe.”
If it remains just below 10%, the world rank will be 13th which is not satisfactory. To attain MDG
goals, NPLR was a major concern. If the rate doesn’t go down, the result won’t be positive at all.
In this situation viability of our finance minister’s quotation regarding NPLR remains
questionable.
Another study shows banks tend to alter their NPLR on annual report to make them look more
lucrative for investments.
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Chapter 6: Recommendation
In order to control non-performing loan, banks need to be very careful about the financial discipline
of the borrower. Banks can undertake the following steps to reduce non-performing loan:
1. Not making loan without proper credit analysis: banks should not make loan without
conducting proper credit analysis;
2. Additional collateral is required when the value of the previous has decreased;
3. According to loan policy, banks have specific limits for specific type of loan, loan officer
should not cross that limit;
4. Loan supervision and review should be conducted in regular basis;
5. Before sanctioning loans, all the documents related to the loan should be collected and
preserved;
6. Banks should not sacrifice the safety of the fund to get extreme profit from risky investment.in
many cases, dishonest borrowers utilize loan not in the purpose stated in the agreement but in
the purpose of consumption or in other types of risky investment. Hats why bank should restrict
this type of diversion of loan policy, which reduce non-performing loan.
7. Banks should evaluate the performance of the company on the basis of periodic financial
statements.
8. Bank's concerned credit specialist must consider all reasonable alternatives for cleaning up the
troubled loan, including making a new, temporary agreement if loan problems appear to be
short term in nature or finding a way to help/ cooption of strategic partner the customer
strengthen cash flow or to inject new capital in to the business. Other possibilities include
finding additional collateral, securing guarantees/undertaking/ to initiate the case of
foreclosure.
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Chapter 7: Conclusion
As lending is the most profitable investment for commercial banks, non-performing loan has effect
on profitability of the commercial banks. In this study, we tried to show the impact of non-
performing loan on banks profitability. It’s time to work with non-performing loan as the funds
that are given to the borrowers as loans must be safe and are recovered and when due. Banks do
business with depositor’s money, if banks can’t get depositors fund when they want, there might
be a vulnerable situation in the industry. Public may lose confidence from the bank, which may
create run on the bank. As a result, profitability of the bank can be negatively affected. The
suggestions given above can be taken into consideration to reduce non-performing loan. Also as
the mother bank of the country, Bangladesh bank has some role to play to ensure sound
environment in the banking industry. Managers of Commercial banks in Bangladesh have to work
hard to enhance profitability of commercial banks and reduce occurrences of nonperforming loans.
This includes taking measures to mitigate against moral hazard and adverse selections in advancing
loans. Bangladesh Bank should enhance supervision of commercial banks and consider analysis
of relationship between ratios of nonperforming loans and profitability to enhance
understandability. Bangladesh bank and shareholders should also take action to caution against
possible use of provisions for losses on non-performing loans for smoothing earnings by the
managers. Regulators should devise regulations and monitoring tools that will trigger early
warning signals of potential bank failures due to accumulation of NPL.
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Reference
1. Causes of non-performing loan and effects on banking sector | daily sun. (2018, May 27).
2. National Bank Limited. (2017, December). Annual report 2017.
3. Share market analysis of Dhaka stock exchange, Bangladesh. (n.d.).
4. Mercentile Bank Limited. (2017, December 31). Annual report 2017.
5. IFIC. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
6. Islami Bank. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
7. Jamuna Bank Limited. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
8. Mutual Trust Bank Limited. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
9. National Credit and Commerce Bank Limited. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
10. One Bank Limited. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
11. Premier Bank Ltd. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
12. Prime Bank. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
13. Pubali Bank. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
14. Rupali Bank. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
15. Shahjalal Islami Bank Ltd. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
16. Social Islami Bank Limited. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
17. Southeast Bank. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
18. Standard Bank Limited. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
19. Trust Bank Limited. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
20. United Commercial Bank Limited. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
21. Uttara Bank. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
22. AB Bank Limited. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
23. Al-Arafah Islami Bank. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
24. Bank Asia Limited. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
25. BRAC Bank Limited. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
26. City Bank. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
27. Dhaka Bank. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
28. Dutch-Bangla Bank. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
29. Eastern Bank. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
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30. Export Import (Exim) Bank of Bangladesh. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
31. First Security Islami Bank Limited. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
32. ICB Islamic Bank Limited. (2017, December). Annual report 2017
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Appendix
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