Written in advance, everybody pls have a look and tell me if there is anything wrong with it.

Thanks a lot!

1.

a) What are the basic three properties an object must have to be a system by definition? Which
additional properties do dynamic systems have?

• Identity: A system shows a specific behavior or has a certain purpose.

• Structure: It is a set of objects with cause-effect relationships.

• Consistency: There are elements or relationships we can‘t take away without destroying or
changing the system‘s identity.

Besides, the structure of dynamic systems contains feedbacks.

b) In general, understanding dynamic systems is not self-evident for humans. Where do the difficulties
come from? Could it be a problem? Why or why not?

• Our brain is not an instrument for understanding the world per se, it‘s an organ that should guide
us more or less safely through life.

• When our mind evolved, understanding feedbacks was simply not necessary for survival.

• is necessary, to understand „reality“and to act goal-orientatedly.

• is not a natural way of thinking for us.

• Must be trained. Models can be highly valuable for that.

c) Does VENSIM find exact analytical solutions or does it approximate by numerical methods? Why?

Simulations …aren‘t models, but the numerical integration of a simulation model (after defining
initial conditions and parameter values).

Numerical Integration: Approximative Method (Runge-Kutta, Euler…), not an exact solution.

Such a simple solution (for relevant systems) exists in exceptional cases only. Mostly, the exact
solution is hard to find or even nonexistent.

d)Should a model contain all details of the real world? Why or why not?

The Purpose of a Model… determines the kind of model and the model structure (system borders,
temporal, spatial, physical resolution).

Models which describe a system in an appropriate way for any purpose don‘t exist.

Analogy: Different types of maps.

e) When is a state variable in equilibrium? What’s the difference between stable and unstable
equilibrium?
A system is in equilibrium, when its state variables (stocks) don’t change. In the water reservoir
example, this means: dX/dt = 0, in words: in- and outflows cancel out each other.
2. Simple Dynamic Systems

a) The diagram shows a fish population. Draw the sustainable harvest in….and…… Is this equilibrium
stable or unstable?

(To my knowledge this question is the only one which isn’t complete, all other questions should be
found in this document now. The ones above where noted down in handwriting: the wording might be
a little different, but content should be ok. The questions following are taken from photos, so they
should probably be exactly the same.)

It should be the net increment line with the harvesting line, and the intersects of them are the
sustainable harvest point.

b) What does „Shifting feedback loop dominance“ mean? Explain in short words how S-shaped
growth result from a shifting loop dominance.

“Shifting Loop Dominance” means that it depends on the states of which kinds of feedback loops are
dominant in the behavior.

(Positive and negative feedback loops change dominance during system development.)

The term ‘S-Shaped’ growth can be explained by shifting dominance of the feedback loops in the
system:

When the Population is far away from capacity, the death rate is small compared to the birth rate.
Thus, the positive feedback loop Fish~Births dominates und forces population growth into an
upwards-bent arc. As the population increases, death rate increases, too. Consequently, the negative
feedback loop Fish~Deaths becomes more and more important, and eventually forces the system
towards equilibrium at capacity where Birth Rate = Death Rate, which means that both feedback
loops cancel out each other.

c) Assume that you are working in the field of nature protection. You are monitoring an endangered
salamander population in a certain area over some years. In the first year you estimate the
population to be 8000 individuals. In the second year, it is 4000, in the third 2000, and in the fourth
year 1000 individuals.

Which simple system archetype seems to describe this population decline best? Why? If the decline
process continues in the same way, how many individuals will you have in the sixth year?

Asymptotic Decay

Because the salamander population approaches zero (first quickly, later slowly), but (mathematically)
never reaches zero in the four year. The amount of individuals in the sixth year is 250.
3 A short story: Population development in a small town.

Imagine you are working in a census bureau of a small town. Your town’s population currently
amounts to 10000 persons. From your database, you know that the number of births is proportional
to the population size with a birth rate of 0.01/year. Similarly, the number of deaths is proportional
to the population size as well. The death rate is 0.01/year. Inmigrations and emigrations are
negligible.

a) Draw causal-loop-diagram (CLD) for this simple system. Use the variables population, births,
deaths, birth rate, and death rate. Don’t forget to mark feedback loops properly where
required.

b) Draw a stock-and-flow diagram (System dynamics diagram) for this system just in the same
as you would develop a model in VENSIM. Use the same variables as in the causal-loop-
diagram above. Add reasonable units for each variable and give the equations for calculating
the variables births and deaths.

Population=Births-Deaths {person}, initial value=10000 {person}

Births=Population*Birth Rate {person/year}
Deaths=Population*Death Rate {person/year}
Birth Rate=0.01 {1/year}
Death Rate=0.01 {1/year}
c) What population dynamics will your model as described in b) show when you simulate for a
larger time span? Answer this question by sketching a diagram (Numbers are not needed!)
that schematically shows the expected population development over time for the following
assumptions:
- Birth rate = 0.01/year and death rate = 0.01/year. (The current situation)

- Birth rate = 0.05/year and death rate = 0.01/year.

- Birth rate = 0.01/year and death rate = 0.05/year.

Give reasons for the population developments you sketched.

Birth rate=Death rateequilibrium at the first place, population don’t change.

Birth rate>Death rateexponential growth

Birth rate<Death rateasymptotic decay

d) Your boss (the head of the town ) wants you to use your model to forecast the population
development for the next 5 years and for the next 50 years. Is your model adequate for both
purposes? Why or why not?
No. It’s because in our model immigrations and emigrations are negligible. Maybe it works
for the next 5 years, but it’s not practical for the next 50 years.