Consensus Seasonal Weather Outlook

October, November and December (OND)

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature for Sri Lanka

These forecasts are prepared using

 The prevailing global climate conditions.

 Forecasts from different climate models from around the world.
 Statistical downscaling of GCM output using CPT

Issued by Centre for Climate Change Studies (CCCS)

and

Research Division

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1. Prevailing global climate conditions
In the equatorial Pacific, remarkably positive SST anomalies were observed west of 150˚E, and
remarkably negative SST anomalies were observed east of 110˚W. (Fig 1). Meanwhile, during
the last four weeks, below-average SSTs have persisted from the Date line to the eastern Pasific
Ocean, and above average SSTs have persisted in the western Pasific Ocean. (CPC-USA).
1.1 El Nino and La Nina update
All key indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation have now reached or exceed La Niña
thresholds. And the persisting La Niña conditions are likely to continue through the
Northern Hemisphere winter (December to February). Given current conditions and model
predictions, the chance of La Niña during December 2020 to February 2021 is estimated to be
around 75%. (Source WMO, BoM) (Fig 3 A).

Fig 1: Observed Average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (°C)

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 Fig 2: Weekly Observed Average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (°C)

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Fig 3: ENSO forecast from Climate Prediction Center (CPC)/ IRI Forecast

1.1.1 Impacts of La-Nina on monthly rainfall anomaly during October, November and
December

Fig 4: Monthly Rainfall Anomaly maps of the months of October (A), November (B) and December (C)
during La-Nina years (Hapuarachchi et al 2016)

Previous studies conducted by the Department of Meteorology, identified that, during La-nina
years it is evident that the below normal rainfall over most parts of the country and above normal
rainfall over some parts of southwestern area of the country during the month of October(Fig 4-
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A). During the month of November it is seen below normal rainfall over most parts of the
country and above normal rainfall over some parts in Monaragala District(Fig 4-B) and during
the month of December above normal rainfalls over some parts of Kurunegala, Gampaha,
Kegalle, Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kandy and Rathnapura districts and below
normal elsewhere (Fig 4-C).

1.2 The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) update

Large parts over the tropical region in the central eastern Indian Ocean are remarkably positive
than average, while there are some weak cool anomalies near the Horn of Africa. The values of
the IOD index have dropped over recent weeks and currently the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has
reached the negative IOD threshold. Most of related global models indicate neutral IOD during
December 2020 (Figure 5). (Source-Bureau of Meteorology, Australia).

Figure 5: IOD forecast from Australian Bureau of Meteorology .

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3. Forecasts from different climate models from around the world.
3.1 October to December (OND) 2020 season
Figure 6 shows the probabilistic multi model ensemble forecast which prepared by using
dynamical models from 12 Global Producing Centers (GPC) for OND season. According to that
below normal rainfall can be expected over the country except Northern parts. There is no signal
over the Northern part the country, where the probability for equal chances to have below, near
or above normal rainfalls for OND season 2020.

Fig 6: Probabilistic multi model ensemble forecast for OND using dynamical models from 12
WMO global producing centers (GPC).

Figure 7 depicts individual forecasts provided by same GPC centers for the OND season. Out of
12 GPC individual models, 6 predicted below normal rainfall and one predicted above normal
rainfall over the country. Out of 12 GPC models 6 predicted slightly above normal rainfall over
the northern area of the country. Accordingly, it can be expected below normal rainfall over most
parts of the country except extream northern part. Over the northern part it can be expected near
or slightly above normal rainfall during OND 2020 season.

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Fig 7: Individual forecasts for OND 2020 season by dynamical models from 11 WMO global
producing centers (GPC).

3.2 Monthly Forecast for October, November and December 2020

Figure 8 shows the probabilistic multi model ensemble forecast, which is prepared by using
dynamical models from 12 global producing centers (GPC), for the months of October,
November and December 2020. According to that below normal rainfall can be expected over
the Island except northern part during the month of October. There is no signal for the northern
part during October 2020. Below normal rainfall can be expected over southern coastal area and
there is no clear signal over most the other areas of the country during the month of November
2020. No clear signal over the Island during the month of December 2020. Accordingly below,
about or above normal rainfall can be expected in no signal areas .

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Fig 8: Probabilistic multi model ensemble forecast for October (left), November (middle) and
December 2020 (right) using dynamical models from 11 WMO global producing centers (GPC).

Fig 9: Individual forecast for October 2020 by dynamical models from 12 WMO global
producing centers (GPC).

Figure 9 shows the 12 monthly forecasts from individual global producing centers (GPC) for
October 2020. Out of 12 GPC forecasts, 5 GPC models predicted below normal rainfall over the
country and another 2 GPC models predicted below normal rainfall over the southern part of the
country. Accordingly, it can be expected below normal rainfall over most parts of the country
except the northern parts during the month of October 2020.
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Fig 10: Individual forecast for November 2020 by dynamical models from 12 WMO global
producing centers (GPC).

Figure 10 shows the monthly forecasts from individual global producing centers (GPC) for
November 2020. Out of 12 GPC forecasts, 2 GPC models predicted above normal rainfall and 5
GPC models predicted below normal rainfall. There is no clear signal indicated in 5 GPC models
for the month of November 2020. Accordingly, equal chances to have below, about or above
normal rainfalls over the country during the month of November 2020.

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Fig 11: Individual forecast for December 2020 by dynamical models from 12 WMO global
producing centers (GPC).

Figure 11 shows the monthly forecasts from 12 individual global producing centers (GPC) for
December 2020. Out of 12 GPC forecasts, 3 GPC models indicate below normal rainfall and
another 3 GPC models predicted above normal rainfall over the country. There is no clear signal
from 6 GPC models for month of December 2020. Accordingly, there is a possibility for equal
chnaces to have below normal, about normal or above normal rainfalls during the month of
December 2020.

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4. Statistical downscaling of CFSv2 global forecast output
4.1 Probabilistic rainfall forecast for OND season 2020 using Climate Predictability tool
(CPT)

The following district wise probabilistic rainfall forecasts for the season of OND 2020 have
been prepared with the multi model ensemble method to downscale ,SST data of CFSv2,
CCSM4, GFDL and ECMWF by using CPT.
The district wise 30 year average rainfalls during OND season are given in the column 2 of the
table 1. Chance (probability) of receiving below/about/above average is given in the columns 3, 4,
and 5 respectively in the table1.

Average rainfall (mm) –

District OND Probability%
Below Normal Above
Colombo 924.3 50 25 25
Kalutara 1124.8 50 25 25
Galle 1038.8 40 30 30
Matara 900.8 30 30 40
Hambantota 556.1 40 30 30
Ampara 794.8 60 20 20
Batticaloa 873.4 60 20 20
Trincomalee 846.8 50 25 25
Mullaithivu 804.2 40 30 30
Jaffna 809.5 40 30 30
Killinochchi 814.6 35 25 40
Mannar 634.5 40 30 30
Puttalam 590.6 45 30 25
Gampaha 816.7 45 30 25
Kegalle 1043.5 55 25 20
Ratnapura 973.2 40 30 30
Monaragala 780.5 55 25 20
Badulla 954.4 60 20 20
Pollonnaruwa 880.1 60 25 15
Vavuniya 757.2 40 30 30
Anuradapura 699.3 50 25 25
Kurunegala 708.8 60 25 15
Matale 927.2 60 25 15
Kandy 961.0 60 25 15
Nuwaraeliya 871.7 50 25 25

Table 1: Probabilistic Rainfall Forecast for OND season 2020 using CPT
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 Fig 12: Probabilistic rainfall forecast for October-December 2020 using CPT

According to the CPT (Fig 12 and table 01), below normal rainfalls can be expected in 16
districts out of 25. There is no clear signal for Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Rathnapura, Jaffna,
Killinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya and Mullativu districts for the OND season 2020. Therefore
equal chances exist of receiving below normal, about normal or above normal rainfall over those
districts for OND Season 2020

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4.2 Probabilistic rainfall forecast for OND 2020 season using RIMES FOCUS System

Fig 13. Probabilistic rainfall forecast for October-December 2020 using RIMES FOCUS System

Figure 13 depicts the Probabilistic rainfall forecast for climatic zones for OND 2020 season,
which has been prepared by using RIMES FOCUS System. According to the model it can be expected
below normal rainfall over Wet zone and Intermediate zone of the country during OND season 2020.
There is no signal over the dry zone, accordingly it can be expected below, about or above normal rainfall
over dry zone during OND season 2020.

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4.3 Probabilistic Rainfall Forecast for OND season 2020 using Climate Information Toolkit

A climate information toolkit, which has been developed by APCC Climate Center (APEC) in
Korea, is used to develop following forecast. It is being used Collection of Dynamic ensemble
seasonal prediction data from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and research
institutes. This includes 14 operations and the models developed by institutes from 10 countries.
Areal rainfall data are used as input data to ‘’CLIK’’ toolkit and Downscaled to districts level.
SST is selected as predictor for all the models. (APCC, NASA, NCEP, PNU).

A - Above Normal

N - Near Normal

B - Below Normal

Fig 14: CLIK Multi model Ensemble Probabilistic Forecast for OND season 2020

According to the above model outputs, below normal rainfall can be expected in 21 districts out
of 25. Above normal rainfall can be expected in Matara and Mullativu districts. There is no clear
signal for Vavuniya and Killinochchi districts. It indicates equal chances of receiving below
normal, near normal or above normal rainfall over Vavuniya and Killinochchi districts during
OND 2020 season.

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 5. SUMMARY :
SUMMARY of MODEL FORECAST for OND 2020 season for SRI LANKA
Season WMO LC WMO GPC CPT FOCUS Impact of Final
MME Global
conditions
OND season BN except BN except BN except Nothern BN- SW BN BN except extream
2020 extream Nothern parts parts of the Nothern parts
Nothern parts parts and Southern parts island NN- Jaffna and
NN- Jaffna No Signal - Nothern Killinochchi
and parts
Killinochchi and Southern parts
October BN except BN except BN except Nothern
2020 Nothern some parts parts
BN except BN- SW
parts of NN- Jaffna and
Nothern parts parts of the
NN- Jaffna Southwest Killinochchi
island
and
Killinochchi
November No signal No signal - BN except BN except Nothern
2020 except southern some parts parts
coastal area of Eastern NN- Jaffna and
BN- southern parts Killinochchi
coastal area
December No Signal No signal - BN except No signal
2020 some parts
of
Northeast
BN: Below Normal NN: Near Normal AN: Above Normal CP: Climatological Probability

5.1 Summery of Prevailing global climate conditions

All key indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation have now reached or exceed La Niña
thresholds. And the persisting La Niña conditions are likely to continue through the
Northern Hemisphere winter (December to January). Given current conditions and model
predictions, the chance of La Niña during December 2020 to February 2021 is estimated to be
around 75%. (Source WMO, BoM) (Fig 3 A). Most of related global models
indicate neutral IOD during December 2020 (Figure 5). (Source-Bureau of Meteorology,
Australia).

6. Consensus Seasonal outlook for October, November and December 2020

Considering the prevailing global climate conditions, forecasts from different global climate
models and statistical downscaling of GCM output using CPT, consensus forecast for October to
December 2020 is concluded as follows.

6.1 Rainfall forecast for October-November- December (OND) three months period
There is a enhanced possibility for below normal rainfalls over most parts of the country and
near normal over Jaffna and Killinochchi districts for OND 2020 season as a whole.

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6.2 Rainfall forecast for the month of October 2020
There is a chance to receive below normal rainfalls over most parts of the country and near
normal rainfall over extream north of the country during October 2020.

6.3 Rainfall forecasts for November 2020

During the month of November 2020 there is a chance to receive below normal rainfalls over
most parts of the country and near normal rainfall over extream north of the country. However
the possibility for below normal rainfall is higher, if La Nina develops according to the
predictions of global prediction centers.

6.3 Rainfall forecasts for December 2020

There is no clear signal over Sri Lanka for the month of December 2020 and it indicates that
there are equal chances to receive below, about or above normal rainfalls during month of
December 2020.

In addition, the predictability is also limited due to strong day-to-day atmospheric variability
caused by the passage of the synoptic scale systems such as lows and depressions which are
more common in the months of October, November and December. Intraseasonal Oscillations
such as Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) is also another atmospheric phenomina which can’t
be underestimated.

Fig 15. Consensus Probabilistic rainfall forecast for October–December 2020

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 6.4 Probabilistic Temperature Forecast for October–December 2020 (OND)
The probabilistic Temperature forecast for October, November and December season (OND)
2020 for Sri Lanka as given below.

Fig 16: Probabilistic forecast for Maximum Temperatures for OND season 2020

Fig 16 and Table 3 show the probabilistic forecast for Maximum Temperatures during OND
season 2020.

There is a higher chance of experiencing slightly above the normal Maximum Temperatures in
Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Trincomalee, Batticoloa, Ampara ,Hambantota, Kandy,
Nuwara Eliya, Kurunegala, Puttalam and Mannar districts and below the normal Maximum
temperatures in Galle, Ratnapura, Colombo and Gampaha, districts (Fig 16) for the OND season
2020.

The district wise average Maximum Temperatures are given in the column 2 of the table 3 and
the chance (probability) of receiving below/about/above averages are given in the columns 3, 4,
and 5 respectively.

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 Average Maximum
Temperature (0C) – Probability %
District (OND)
Below Normal Above
Anuradhapura 30.5 30 30 40
Badulla 27.1 30 35 35
Batticaloa 29.4 30 30 40
Colombo 30.1 45 30 25
Galle 28.9 40 30 30
Hambantota 29.8 25 20 55
Katugastota 28.3 30 30 40
Katunayake 30.9 45 25 30
Mannar 29.6 30 25 45
MahaIlluppallama 30.4 30 30 40
NuwaraEliya 19.6 30 25 45
Pottuvil 30.5 30 30 40
Puttalam 30.4 30 30 40
Ratnapura 31.6 40 30 30
Ratmalana 30.4 45 20 35
Trincomalee 29.7 15 25 60
Vavuniya 30.3 30 30 40
Kurunegala 30.7 20 35 45
Bandarawela 23.5 30 35 35
Table 3: probabilistic forecast for Maximum Temperature for OND season 2020

Fig 17: Probabilistic forecast for Minimum Temperatures for OND season 2020

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Fig 17 and Table 4 provide the probabilistic forecast for Minimum Temperatures during OND
season 2020.

Accordingly, there is a higher chance of experiencing slightly above the normal Minimum
Temperatures in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Batticoloa, Ampara, Gampaha, Colombo, Galle,
Hambantota and Ratnapura Districts districts and below the normal Minimum temperatures in
Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts during OND
season 2020.

Average Minimum
Temperature (0C) – Probability %
District (OND)
Below Normal Above
Anuradhapura 22.6 30 30 40
Badulla 18.7 40 30 30
Batticaloa 23.9 20 35 45
Colombo 23.3 15 25 60
Galle 23.6 30 30 40
Hambantota 23.7 20 30 50
Katugastota 19.9 40 30 30
Katunayake 22.9 20 35 45
Mannar 24.6 30 30 40
MahaIlluppallama 22.2 30 30 40
NuwaraEliya 11.4 40 30 30
Pottuvil 23.2 30 30 40
Puttalam 23.0 35 30 35
Ratnapura 22.6 20 35 45
Ratmalana 23.0 15 25 60
Trincomalee 24.3 40 30 30
Vavuniya 22.2 40 30 30
Kurunegala 22.2 40 30 30
Bandarawela 15.6 40 25 35

Table 4: Probabilistic forecast for Minimum Temperatures for OND season 2020

Note- Temperature forecasts are not available in Matara, Kegalle, Kalutara, Monaragala, Polonnaruwa, Jaffna,
Killinochchi, Mullativu and Mathale districts due to unavailability of Climate data.

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