2018-19 EL NIÑO

MITIGATION PLAN
 Impacts on Agriculture
• Decline in GVA and production volume of four
principal crops (rice, corn, sugarcane and
coconut) coincide with El Niño years.
• Sharpest falls in GVA and production volumes
occurred in 1982-83 and 1997-98 (strongest El Niño
events of the century)
• Livestock, poultry, and fisheries are not sensitive to
extreme climate events, however, ENSO can
cause ponds to becomes dry and constrict
production cycles, stunt growth and high mortality
rates caused by stress, disease and poor water
conditions.
Source: PSA, Impact of ENSO on crop production by utilizing past data and cross-referencing
with ENSO
 Paddy Rice Production in Bicol and Major Hazards,
1975-2015
TS "Bebeng"/ TS
"Juaning"/ Dry Spell/ TS
TS "Pedring” "Glenda"/ TS
"Luis" and
El Nino, TS "Mario"/ TS
"Ondoy, TS "Ruby"
"Pepeng", TS
"Cresing" and
El Niño/
STY “Loleng” "Dante TS Amang

1400 STY “Reming”/ TS

STY “Kading” STY “Rosing” "Yolanda"
STY “Sisang” TY “Milenyo
1200 STY “Anding”/ TY “Monang”
STY “Dindo”
TY “Dinang”
Thousands

1000 TY “Saling” El Niño

El Niño
800

600

400

200

0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
All Ecosystem Irrigated Non-Irrigated
Source of basic data: Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, www.typhoon2000.ph
Situationer-Dry Spell, Bicol Region:
Dry spell-February to April 2014

 Affected Farmers: 8,979 rice farmers/ 556 corn

farmers
 Damage Area: 6,873.05 hectares of rice
lands/458 hectares of corn lands
 Production Loss: Rice - 25,394.59 MT/ PhP
331,721,163.58/ Corn - 1,054.80 MT/PhP
10,964,084.69
 Interventions: farm inputs (seeds/fertilizers),
Advisories and bulletins
Situationer-Dry Spell, Bicol Region:
EL NINO April to June 2016
 Affected Farmers: 6340 rice farmers/ 291 corn
farmers
 Damage Area: 6882.73 hectares of rice
lands/453 hectares of corn lands
 Production Loss: Rice - 13,818.04 MT/ PhP
197,793,080.34 / Corn – 273.09 MT/PhP
4,368,000
 Interventions: provide drought-tolerant
varieties/alternate crops (corn, garlic,
mungbean, peanut, other vegetable seeds),
small-scale irrigation projects (PISOS and STW)
and other farm inputs.
 FORECAST RAINFALL ANALYSIS
March-August 2019, PAGASA Climate Outlook
March April May June July August

Normal Forecast % to Normal Forecast % to Normal Forecast % to Normal Forecast % to Normal Forecast % to Normal Forecast % to
(mm) (mm) Normal (mm) (mm) Normal (mm) (mm) Normal (mm) (mm) Normal (mm) (mm) Normal (mm) (mm) Normal
Albay
173.2 101.5 58.6 156.9 100.6 64.1 162.2 110.0 67.8 216.9 180.9 83.4 260.5 280.6 107.7 209.9 256.7 122.3
Cam. Norte
144.2 77.7 53.9 122.2 59.9 49.0 147.1 101.5 69.0 189.1 154.9 81.9 235.5 240.7 102.2 160.6 220.5 137.3
Cam. Sur
150.9 82.1 54.4 126.4 71.8 56.8 152.4 103.0 67.6 209.4 176.3 84.2 254.6 256.1 100.6 186.9 243.7 130.4
Catanduanes
151.2 81.8 54.1 141.5 95.4 67.4 154.7 105.5 68.2 220.9 191.1 86.5 242.7 202.9 83.6 165.2 225.7 136.6
Masbate
109.1 53.9 49.4 82.5 46.3 56.1 140.6 91.8 65.3 187.4 147.7 78.8 233.5 268.5 115.0 186.1 226.5 121.7
Sorsogon
175.1 100.0 57.1 137.3 84.6 61.6 155.3 105.6 68.0 200.6 161.7 80.6 233.5 250.3 107.2 196.7 236.4 120.2

Cropping Calendar of Major Crops in Bicol Region

CROPPING PATTERN J F M A M J J A S O N D

RICE Season Wet Season Dry

CORN Wet Season Dry Season
TOMATO
EGGPLANT
 ENSO Alert System Status:
El Niño Watch
As of Feb. 20, 2019 PAGASA reports

Weak
El Niño
is present in With this development, the
the Tropical PAGASA ENSO Alert System is now
Pacific upgraded to El Niño Advisory.
Varying impacts may occur.
DRY SPELL/DROUGHT
OUTLOOK
PAGASA Climate Outlook – February 19, 2019
BY END OF MARCH BICOL REGION WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL
BY END OF APRIL ALL PROVINCES IN
BICOL REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
DRY SPELL EXCEPT CATANDUANES WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE DROUGHT
BY END OF MAY ALL PROVINCES IN
BICOL REGION WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE DROUGHT
Projected Impacts in Agriculture from
January – June Climate Forecast
Generally, below normal rainfall from March to May and near
normal in June and above normal in August, were forecasted for
this season.

Reduced rainfall favors those in maturing and harvesting stage,

however it may delay the planting of upland crops and rice in
rainfed areas in January to May. The projected near normal rainfall
on June which is the start of the planting season, would help
mitigate the effects however, crops and livestock might still be
affected by flooding/strong winds brought about by 2-4
forecasted tropical cyclones for the period.

The presence of Weak El Niño in the Tropical Pacific might cause

heat stress to livestock and poultry production as well as affect the
pasture areas for small and large ruminant. Increased temperature
could affect water availability for crops and livestock.
 Projected Damage for Rice:
Bicol Region
STANDING CROPS VULNERABLE TO DRY
(As of Jan 2019) SPELL/DROUGHT
REGION/ Projected Yields
PROVINCE AVERAGE Production ESTIMATED VALUE
Vulnerable Potential Yield Losses (mt) (PhP) OF LOSSES
YIELD
AREA (mt)
(MT/ha)
ALBAY 721.02 907.15 15,420,914.88
3.68 2,653.30
CAMARINES NORTE 1,838.86 3.48 6,399.23 120.37 2,046,344.40

CAMARINES SUR 8,253.56 4.13 34,087.20 20,055.24 340,939,022.80

CATANDUANES 1,086.68 3.13 3,401.31 1,346.00 22,88,922.91

MASBATE 6,015.53 2.95 17,745.81 9,560.96 162,536,350.60

SORSOGON 3,857.30 3.78 14,580.59 4,358.82 74,099,973.15

TOTAL 21,772.95 ha 78,867.51 mt. 31,421.53 mt. 534,166,093.64

* Production losses for rice are mostly rainfed rice areas, which are vulnerable to the effects of the El Niño
phenomenon.
 Projected Damage for Corn:
Bicol Region
VULNERABLE TO DRY
STANDING CROPS (As of Jan. 2019)
SPELL/DROUGHT
REGION/ Projected Yields
PROVINCE Area (ha) Productio ESTIMATED
Total AVERAGE Potential Yield (mt) n Losses VALUE (PhP)
YIELD (mt) OF LOSSES
Yellow White (MT/ha) Yellow White Total

ALBAY 2,061.30 675.00 2,736.30 2.73 5,627.35 1,842.75 7,470.10 2,902.56 39,184,604.55

CAMARINES
- - - 1.71 - - - - -
NORTE
CAMARINES
3,910.45 157.00 4,067.45 3.90 15,250.76 612.30 15,863.06 6,589.80 88,962,310.13
SUR
CATANDUANES - - - 1.27 - - - - -

MASBATE 199.50 1,791.10 1,990.60 0.84 167.58 1,504.52 1,672.10 830.38 11,210,185.35

SORSOGON 36.5 6.0 42.50 3.11 113.52 18.66 132.18 19.83 267,654.38

TOTAL 6,207.75 2,629.10 8,836.85 21,159.20 3,978.23 25,137.43 10,342.57 139,624,754.40

 DA Interventions

 Farm weather bulletins/advisories

 Buffer stocking, provision of seeds, other planting
materials (mungbean, pineapple, sweet potato, etc…),
for rehab and early planting
 Irrigation support: STW, PISOS, SWIP, DD, solar pump,
wind pump, drip irrigation, drums, etc…
 Promotion of drought tolerant varieties (e.g. GSR lines)
 Drugs and Biologics (Vitamins, dewormers,
 Technology: Alternate Wet and Drying Method with SRI
(rice), ratooning, silage making, drip irrigation, etc….
 Crop Insurance
 Cloud Seeding
THANK YOU