MAPE 10.

9%
MSE 39.2758621
MAD 5.34482759
N=1
Periodo Demanda ft ABS(et) et^2 ABS(et/Dt)
1 56 - - - -
2 46 56 10 100 0.2174
3 53 46 7 49 0.1321
4 50 53 3 9 0.0600
5 50 50 0 0 0.0000
6 50 50 0 0 0.0000
7 46 50 4 16 0.0870
8 53 46 7 49 0.1321
9 55 53 2 4 0.0364
10 46 55 9 81 0.1957
11 53 46 7 49 0.1321
12 45 53 8 64 0.1778
13 50 45 5 25 0.1000
14 49 50 t 1 1 0.0204
15 48 49 1 1 0.0208
Se
g
ni

16 43 48 5 25 0.1163
ai
Tr

17 47 43 4 16 0.0851
18 55 47 8 64 0.1455
19 52 55 3 9 0.0577
20 52 52 0 0 0.0000
21 44 52 8 64 0.1818
22 47 44 3 9 0.0638
23 57 47 10 100 0.1754
24 45 57 12 144 0.2667
25 48 45 3 9 0.0625
26 55 48 7 49 0.1273
27 50 55 5 25 0.1000
28 42 50 8 64 0.1905
29 50 42 8 64 0.1600
30 57 50 7 49 0.1228
31 51 57
32 54 51
33 54 54
34 51 54
35 52 51
36 48 52
37 50 48
38 49 50
39 52 49
40 48 52
41 47 48
42 48 47
43 44 48
44 43 44
45 50 43
46 57 50
47 46 57
48 44 46
49 52 44
50 58 52
 8.5% 7.5%
31.66 24.80
4.39285714 3.85185185
N=2 N=3
ft ABS(et) et^2 ABS(et/Dt) ft ABS(et) et^2 ABS(et/Dt)
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
51.00 2.00 4.00 0.04 - - - -
49.50 0.50 0.25 0.01 51.67 1.67 2.78 0.03
51.50 1.50 2.25 0.03 49.67 0.33 0.11 0.01
50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 51.00 1.00 1.00 0.02
50.00 4.00 16.00 0.09 50.00 4.00 16.00 0.09
48.00 5.00 25.00 0.09 48.67 4.33 18.78 0.08
49.50 5.50 30.25 0.10 49.67 5.33 28.44 0.10
54.00 8.00 64.00 0.17 51.33 5.33 28.44 0.12
50.50 2.50 6.25 0.05 51.33 1.67 2.78 0.03
49.50 4.50 20.25 0.10 51.33 6.33 40.11 0.14
49.00 1.00 1.00 0.02 48.00 2.00 4.00 0.04
47.50 1.50 2.25 0.03 49.33 0.33 0.11 0.01
49.50 1.50 2.25 0.03 48.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
48.50 5.50 30.25 0.13 49.00 6.00 36.00 0.14
45.50 1.50 2.25 0.03 46.67 0.33 0.11 0.01
45.00 10.00 100.00 0.18 46.00 9.00 81.00 0.16
51.00 1.00 1.00 0.02 48.33 3.67 13.44 0.07
53.50 1.50 2.25 0.03 51.33 0.67 0.44 0.01
52.00 8.00 64.00 0.18 53.00 9.00 81.00 0.20
48.00 1.00 1.00 0.02 49.33 2.33 5.44 0.05
45.50 11.50 132.25 0.20 47.67 9.33 87.11 0.16
52.00 7.00 49.00 0.16 49.33 4.33 18.78 0.10
51.00 3.00 9.00 0.06 49.67 1.67 2.78 0.03
46.50 8.50 72.25 0.15 50.00 5.00 25.00 0.09
51.50 1.50 2.25 0.03 49.33 0.67 0.44 0.01
52.50 10.50 110.25 0.25 51.00 9.00 81.00 0.21
46.00 4.00 16.00 0.08 49.00 1.00 1.00 0.02
46.00 11.00 121.00 0.19 47.33 9.67 93.44 0.17
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
53.00 2.00 4.00 0.04
53.00 1.00 1.00 0.02
52.33 4.33 18.78 0.09
50.33 0.33 0.11 0.01
50.00 1.00 1.00 0.02
49.00 3.00 9.00 0.06
50.33 2.33 5.44 0.05
49.67 2.67 7.11 0.06
49.00 1.00 1.00 0.02
47.67 3.67 13.44 0.08
46.33 3.33 11.11 0.08
45.00 5.00 25.00 0.10
45.67 11.33 128.44 0.20
50.00 4.00 16.00 0.09
51.00 7.00 49.00 0.16
49.00 3.00 9.00 0.06
47.33 10.67 113.78 0.18
 N=3 N=3
ft ABS(et) et^2 ABS(et/Dt) ft ABS(et) et^2 ABS(et/Dt)
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
51.25 51.25 2626.56 #DIV/0! - - - -
49.75 49.75 2475.06 #DIV/0! 51.00 51.00 2601.00 #DIV/0!
50.75 50.66 2566.74 582.63 49.80 49.71 2471.39 571.70
49.00 48.87 2388.07 370.00 49.80 49.71 2470.65 526.88
49.75 49.71 2471.45 1367.13 49.80 49.70 2470.09 497.00
51.00 50.80 2581.08 259.67 50.80 50.63 2563.00 291.10
50.00 49.87 2486.81 377.57 50.00 49.95 2495.29 1059.00
51.75 51.57 2659.69 290.09 50.60 50.50 2550.25 505.00
49.75 49.65 2465.12 496.50 50.40 50.38 2538.14 2519.00
48.50 48.48 2350.27 2375.50 49.80 49.77 2476.99 1625.80
49.25 49.23 2423.51 2363.00 48.60 48.57 2358.92 1554.20
48.00 47.88 2292.85 411.80 49.00 48.87 2388.48 382.09
47.50 47.41 2248.17 557.13 47.00 46.97 2206.00 1471.67
46.75 46.60 2171.98 320.41 47.40 47.22 2229.56 259.70
48.25 48.19 2322.50 835.33 48.40 48.38 2340.70 2515.80
49.25 49.25 2425.56 #DIV/0! 49.00 48.97 2398.17 1697.67
51.50 51.32 2633.56 282.25 49.80 49.62 2461.96 272.90
50.75 50.69 2569.09 794.08 50.00 49.98 2497.87 2349.00
48.75 48.57 2359.49 276.88 50.00 49.80 2479.87 246.83
50.00 49.73 2473.40 186.50 50.40 50.24 2524.50 323.00
48.25 48.19 2322.04 771.00 49.00 48.94 2394.88 783.00
49.25 49.12 2413.04 385.96 48.20 48.05 2308.37 310.88
51.25 51.15 2616.32 511.50 50.40 50.37 2537.14 1679.00
49.50 49.31 2431.43 258.88 51.00 50.75 2575.56 203.00
48.75 48.59 2360.99 303.69 48.00 47.92 2296.33 599.00
49.25 49.13 2413.48 400.04 49.00 48.81 2382.12 252.91

Ho= Los errores siguen una distribución normal

H1= Los errores no siguen una distribución normal
 N=3 N=3
ft ABS(et) et^2 ABS(et/Dt) ft ABS(et) et^2 ABS(et/Dt)
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
50.83 50.75 2575.19 583.58 - - - -
49.17 49.08 2409.33 600.35 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
50.33 50.24 2523.69 518.06 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
50.67 50.55 2555.38 436.00 773.25 513.58 263767.84 1.98
50.00 49.97 2496.86 1589.00 665.60 288.03 82958.86 0.76
50.50 50.36 2536.05 357.82 668.12 378.03 142904.63 1.30
49.67 49.63 2462.81 1240.67 309.11 187.39 35114.78 0.38
50.33 50.33 2532.76 7398.00 388.06 1987.44 3949937.39 0.84
49.67 49.67 2466.78 #DIV/0! 1054.03 1308.97 1713399.19 0.55
48.50 48.36 2338.73 346.58 1745.00 1333.20 1777422.24 3.24
48.00 47.99 2303.32 6767.00 1716.77 1159.64 1344768.80 2.08
47.00 46.84 2193.64 286.22 1110.64 790.24 624472.01 2.47
48.67 48.60 2361.59 689.18 429.78 405.56 164475.87 0.49
49.00 48.99 2399.74 3821.00 570.95 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
49.50 49.30 2430.04 241.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
48.83 48.78 2379.85 982.64 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
49.50 49.34 2434.07 301.30 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
51.17 51.07 2608.18 530.35 451.07 264.57 69996.99 1.42
49.50 49.47 2446.81 1424.60 419.15 351.85 123796.47 0.46
48.83 48.74 2375.82 536.17 411.46 25.49 649.95 0.07
49.33 49.32 2432.46 3699.00 447.82 63.68 4054.96 0.12
50.33 50.12 2511.92 233.89 556.15 297.28 88375.26 1.15
49.50 49.48 2448.27 2474.00 385.45 81.76 6684.52 0.27
48.33 48.16 2319.75 284.00 358.02 42.01 1765.25 0.11