Incorporating Historical Data and Evaluating High and Low Outliers

Incorporating Historical Data and Evaluating High and Low Outliers
Workshop 2.6
This workshop will evaluate the instantaneous peak flow-frequency curves for the Santa Cruz
River near Lochiel, Arizona (USGS station 09480000) and the East Fork Big Creek near
Bethany, Missouri (USGS station 06897000). The data sets have historical information and
potential low outliers. Students will use HEC-SSP to estimate flow-frequency curves.
Adequacy of the default low outlier threshold will be examined for the Santa Cruz River. For
East Fork Big Creek, historical information will be added, and the adequacy of both the default
high and low outlier thresholds will be examined. Both Bulletin 17B and Bulletin 17C
techniques will be utilized on each data set to compare and contrast the newly released Bulletin
17C methods.
Part A. Low Outliers, Santa Cruz River near Lochiel, Arizona (USGS station 09480000)
1. On the classroom PC, start the HEC-SSP software by double clicking the SSP icon on the
desktop. Select New Study from the File menu, browse to the …/Workshop_2.6 folder
to set this location as the study directory. Then enter a Study Name,
“Outliers_Examples”, enter a meaningful description, and press the OK button. SSP
will create a new empty project.
2. The data for this project will be downloaded from the USGS. Select Data | New….
Select the radio button for USGS Website and make sure that Annual Peak Data is
selected within the Data Type drop down menu along. Also, ensure that only the Flow
box is checked. Press the Get USGS Station ID’s by State button. Select Arizona and
press OK. You should notice that annual peak flow data was found for 498 gages.
Navigate to the Santa Cruz River at Lochiel, AZ gage (09480000). Check the Import
Data box and click the Import to Study DSS File button, as shown in Figure 1.
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Workshop 2.6 - Incorporating Historical Data and Evaluating High and Low
Outliers/Bartles/Faber
Figure 1. Data Importer
3. Notice the new data is added to the Data folder in the study tree and it is named SANTA
CRUZ RIVER-LOCHIEL, AZ-FLOW-ANNUAL PEAK. You can view a plot or
table of the data by placing the mouse on top of the data name and clicking the right
mouse button. Choose the Plot and/or Tabulate options in the pop-up menu, as shown in
Figure 2.
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Figure 2. Santa Cruz River at Lochiel, AZ Plot and Tabular Data
4. Create a flow frequency analysis using Bulletin 17B procedures:

a. Go to the Analysis menu and select New | Bulletin 17 Flow Frequency to open
the Bulletin 17 editor.
b. Enter a name to describe the analysis like “Santa_Cruz_River”.
c. Select the Flow Data Set labeled “SANTA CRUZ RIVER-LOCHIEL, AZ-
FLOW-ANNUAL PEAK”.
d. Select the 17B Methods radio button.
e. Use Station Skew.
f. Select the “Do Not Compute Expected Probability Curve” option.
g. Select the Single Grubbs-Beck test.
h. Select the Median plotting position formula.
i. Press the Compute button and examine the Tabular Results tab. Graph the
results by selecting the Plot Curve button.
5. View the Tabular Results tab, and note the LogPearsonIII statistics and the number of
high and low outliers. Plot the curve using the Plot Curve button, and examine the fitted
curve and the low outliers.
Question 1: Comment on the fit of the frequency curve to the data and its reasonableness. How
would the fitted curve estimate the exceedance probability of the largest 2 events? Discuss what
might be influencing the fit.
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6. Create a copy of the Santa_Cruz_River Bulletin 17 analysis and override the low outlier
threshold.
a. Place the mouse pointer on top of the existing Santa_Cruz_River Bulletin 17
analysis and click the right mouse button. Select the Save As… option in the
pop-up menu.
b. Enter a Name for the new Bulletin 17 analysis, “Santa_Cruz_River_low” and
click the OK button. The new Bulletin 17 analysis will be added to the study.
c. Open the copied Bulletin 17 analysis and select the Options tab. Check the box
to Override the Low Outlier Threshold and then enter a value. Choose a low
outlier threshold that you think improves the frequency curve fit to the data.
d. Compute the analysis and plot the frequency curve. Compare the frequency curve
to the original frequency curve computed using the default low outlier threshold.
e. Continue exploring the impact of various low outlier thresholds until you feel you
have a final selection. Consider using Save As… feature to compare multiple
threshold choices by selecting multiple analyses in the study tree and choosing
Results | Graph.
Question 2: Discuss the impact of the low outlier thresholds you evaluated. Which value
provides the best fit? How does this impact the upper end of the curve (i.e. for smaller
exceedance probabilities)?
7. Create a flow frequency analysis using Bulletin 17C procedures:

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b. Enter a name to describe the analysis like “Santa_Cruz_River_B17C”.
c. Select the Flow Data Set labeled “SANTA CRUZ RIVER-LOCHIEL, AZ-
FLOW-ANNUAL PEAK”.
d. Select the 17C EMA Java radio button.
g. Select the Multiple Grubbs-Beck test.
h. Select the Hirsch/Stedinger plotting position formula.
i. Move to the EMA Data tab. Ensure that the Flow Ranges table is completed
filled out and all years use Systematic data types.
j. Press the Compute button and examine the Tabular Results tab. Graph the
results by selecting the Plot Curve button.
k. View the Tabular Results tab, and note the LogPearsonIII statistics and the
number of low outliers/PILFs. Plot the curve using the Plot Curve button, and
examine the fitted curve and the low outliers.
Question 3: Compare the flow-frequency curves created using the Bulletin 17B techniques
(without and with your defined low outlier threshold) and the flow-frequency curve created using
Bulletin 17C techniques. Discuss the result of the Multiple Grubbs-Beck test. Compare the
B17C curve to the various B17B curves. Compare the confidence interval of the B17C curve to
the B17B curves. Which method produces a more reasonable estimate of annual chance
exceedance for the most extreme observed events? (Hint: this is a subjective question and meant
to insight discussion).
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Part B. Historical Information and Low Outliers, East Fork Big Creek near Bethany,
Missouri (USGS station 06897000)
1. Select Data | New…. Select the radio button for USGS Website and the Annual Peak
Data type. Make sure the Flow and Stage boxes are checked. Press the Get USGS
Station ID’s by State button. Select Missouri and press OK. You should notice that
annual peak flow data was found for 533 gages. Select the East Fork Big Creek near
Bethany, MO station (06897000). Check the Import Data box and click Import to
Study DSS File.
2. Notice four new datasets are added to the Data folder in the study tree. There are annual
peak flow and annual peak stage datasets. Also, USGS data codes were imported for the
flow and stage data. Plot and/or tabulate all four datasets. The following descriptions are
for the flow data codes.
Code 1 = "Discharge is a maximum Daily Average"
Code 2 = "Discharge is an Estimate"
Code 7 = "Discharge is an Historic Peak"
3. Notice that the stage data contains a measured peak stage for 1909 (23.8 ft), but the flow
data does not. An estimate of the flow for 1909 was made by developing flow vs. stage
relationships using data from 1934 – 1955 and 1956 – current. The data was split
because the flow/stage relationship noticeably differed between the earlier period and the
later period, as can be seen in Figure 3. Using these stage-flow rating curves, the peak
flow for the 1909 event was estimated as 14,200 cfs.
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Flow and stage data
30
25
20
Stage (ft)
15
1956 - 2011
1934 - 1955
10
1909 estimate
0
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000
Flow (cfs)
Figure 3. Flow-Stage Plot for East Fork Big Creek (two time periods)
4. Create a Bulletin 17 analysis:

b. Enter a name to describe the analysis like “East_Fork_Big_Creek”.
c. Select the Flow Data Set labeled “East Fork Big Creek-Bethany, MO-FLOW-
ANNUAL PEAK”.
d. Select the 17B Methods radio button.
g. Select the Single Grubbs-Beck test.
h. Select the Median plotting position formula.
i. Enter a Start Date of 01Oct1933 to exclude the 1909 event which has no flow
value.
j. Press the Compute button and examine the Tabular Results tab. Graph the results
by selecting the Plot Curve button. On the File menu, select Save to save the
data.
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Question 4: Comment on the fit of the frequency curve to the data and its reasonableness. Are
there any high and low outliers?
5. Create a copy of the East Fork Big Creek Bulletin 17 analysis and add the historical
event:
a. Place the mouse pointer on top of the existing East_Fork_Big_Creek Bulletin 17
analysis and click the right mouse button. Select the Save As… option in the
pop-up menu.
b. Enter a Name for the new Bulletin 17 analysis, “East_Fork_Big_Creek_Hist”
and click the OK button. The new Bulletin 17 analysis will be added to the study.
to Use Historic Data. Enter a Start Year of 1909. In the Historic Events table,
add 1909 and an estimate flow of 14,200 cfs, as shown in Figure 4.
d. Compute the analysis and plot the frequency curve.
e. To see the impact of using the historical event, select both analyses (with and
without the historical event) in the study tree and plot the curves together.
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Figure 4. East_Fork_Big_Creek_Hist Options Tab
Question 5: How did the use of an historical event affect the frequency curve?
6. Consider the events in the period of record. Note the 1973 event is significantly larger
than the rest of the systematic events, and nearly as large as the 1909 event. The USGS
code for 1973 designates it as an historical event as well. A high outlier threshold should
be specified so that this event is treated as an historical event. Create a copy of the East
Fork Big Creek_Hist Bulletin 17B analysis and add a high outlier threshold that is below
the 1973 event:
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a. Use the Save As option. Name the new Bulletin 17 analysis
“East_Fork_Big_Creek_HistHi”.
b. On the Options tab, enter a value less than the magnitude of the 1973 event
within the Override High Outlier Threshold entry field, as shown in Figure 5.
c. Compute the analysis and plot the frequency curve.
d. To see the impact of making 1973 a high outlier, select both analyses in the study
tree and plot the curves together.
Figure 5. East_Fork_Big_Creek_HistHi Options Tab
Question 6: How did making 1973 a high outlier (historical event) affect the frequency curve?
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Question 7: Consider the LPIII frequency curve and all the plotted data. How many low outliers
are censored by the default low outlier threshold? Do the remaining low events seem influential?
7. Create a copy of the East_Fork_Big_Creek_HistHi Bulletin 17 analysis and override

the low outlier threshold:
a. Place the mouse pointer on top of the existing East_Fork_Big_Creek_HistHi
Bulletin 17 analysis and click the right mouse button. Select the Save As…
option in the pop-up menu.
b. Enter a Name for the new Bulletin 17 analysis,
“East_Fork_Big_Creek_HistHiLow” and click the OK button. The new
Bulletin 17 analysis will be added to the study.
to Override the Low Outlier Threshold and then enter a value. Choose a value
that you feel improves the frequency curve fit to the data.
d. Compute the analysis and Plot the frequency curve.
Question 8: Compare the three frequency curves: the first estimate, HistHi, and HistHiLow.
How does adding the historical event, overriding the high outlier threshold, and overriding the
low outlier threshold affect the frequency curve?
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8. Perform a Bulletin 17C analysis on the same station:
a. Right click on the Flow Data Set labeled “East Fork Big Creek-Bethany, MO-
FLOW-ANNUAL PEAK”. Select Tabulate.
b. Click Edit | Allow Editting.
c. Enter a peak of 14200 cfs for the 06 Jul 1909 row. The tabular data should
resemble Figure 6.
Figure 6. Modified East Fork Big Creek Tabular Data
d. Go to the Analysis menu and select New | Bulletin 17 Flow Frequency to open
e. Enter a name to describe the analysis like “East_Fork_Big_Creek_B17C”.
f. Select the Flow Data Set labeled “East Fork Big Creek-Bethany, MO-FLOW-
ANNUAL PEAK”.
g. Select the 17C EMA Java radio button.
h. Use Station Skew.
i. Select the “Do Not Compute Expected Probability Curve” option.
j. Select the Multiple Grubbs-Beck test.
k. Select the Hirsch/Stedinger plotting position formula.
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l. Move to the EMA Data tab. By default, the Perception Threshold table should
have a row for 1909 – 2017 and a perception threshold of [0 – inf].
m. Notice that the Flow Ranges table has rows for 1910 – 1933 with no information.
n. Change the data type for the 1909 and 1974 events to Historical.
Question 9: Perception thresholds must be set for the years between 1909 and 1933 and also
for the missing years. What are reasonable values for the low threshold for each period?
o. Add a row to the Perception Thresholds table from 1909 – 1933 and specify
a reasonable low perception threshold. Make the high value is set to “inf”
(infinity).
i. To enter “inf” within a cell, begin editing the cell by double left
clicking, then right click, and select “set as INF”.
p. Add another row to the Perception Thresholds table for the missing years in
the record. You may enter the years as 1973 – 2000, although there are some
non-missing years in that period. Specify a reasonable low perception
threshold. Make the high value is set to “inf” (infinity).
q. When the perception thresholds table is complete, press the Apply
Thresholds button. Complementary flow ranges inferred from the perception
thresholds will be added to the Flow Ranges table. Check all years for both
the flow values and data types.
i. Note: missing years should be set to Censored.
r. Press the Compute button and examine the Tabular Results tab. Plot the
curve.
s. Press the View Report button and study the EMA information.
Question 10: How many low outliers (PILFs) are found? Do these values make sense?
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Question 11: Compare the flow-frequency curve developed using Bulletin 17C and those
develop using Bulletin 17B procedures (use the analysis that includes 1909 but no low outlier
overrides). How do these curves contrast one another? If time allows, explore the use of other
perception thresholds that can be justified and note the effect on the LPIII distribution/curve.
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Incorporating Historical Data and Evaluating High and Low Outliers

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Incorporating Historical Data and Evaluating High and Low Outliers

4. Create a flow frequency analysis using Bulletin 17B procedures:

7. Create a flow frequency analysis using Bulletin 17C procedures:

4. Create a Bulletin 17 analysis:

Figure 5. East_Fork_Big_Creek_HistHi Options Tab

7. Create a copy of the East_Fork_Big_Creek_HistHi Bulletin 17 analysis and override

Figure 6. Modified East Fork Big Creek Tabular Data

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