APU All Included

№ Sheet name Comment Style Design
A Assumptions
Assumptions which are used in valuation Header 1 Header1
B Revenue Forecast Based on the assumptions, each market Header 2 Header2

revenue is forecasted
C Expense Input 100
All related expenses are forecasted
D D&A Depreciation and amortization is Off-Sheet 100
forecasted
E Working capital Total
Working capital is forecasted
F Loan payment Unit / Info USD millions
Loan payment schedule is forecasted
G Dividend Line Summary 100
Divident is forecasted
H Balance sheet Table Header Qtr
Forecasted balance sheet
I Income statement Balance
Forecasted income statemtn
J WACC
WACC calculation details
K DCF FCFF
Dicounted cash flow valuation
L Multiples
Industry peer multiples
M Countries
Lower middle income countries market
Comment
Header1
A user driven input
A link to another worksheet to minimise the number of inter-worksheet references (slow and risky)
The sum of elements above, including sub-totals
USD millions Explanatory text showing helpful information and the units/dimensions of the calculations
The SUM() of everything to the right
Header of a table or of an off-sheet reference
The closing balance of a control account

slow and risky)
<= Cover Sheet [A] Assumptions [B] Revenue forecast [C] Expense [D] D&A
[G] Dividend [H] Balance sheet [I] Income statement [J] WACC [K] DCF FCFF
Base case 1 Metrics 2 CHOOSE THE SCENE

Bull case 2
Bear case 3
Assumption for APU Company Valuation
Income forecast
Result 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mongolian RGDP Growth forecast 0.100% 4.476% 6.967% 8.630% 12.074%
Mongolian Inflation rate forecast 0.20% 6.67% 5.29% 6.29% 6.44%
US inflation forecast 1.82% 2.56% 2.66% 2.42% 2.36%
Depreciation Assumption
Result 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
COGS 77.79% 77.79% 77.79% 77.79% 77.79%
Allocation of Depreciation and Amortisation
Sell&Admi 22.21% 22.21% 22.21% 22.21% 22.21%
COGS without Depreciation 67.28% 67.28% 67.28% 67.28% 67.28%
Libor forecast 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
Computing WACC assumption
Case assumptions Base Bull Bear

GDP 0 0.035 -0.035
Dairy products 0 1 -1
Beer 0 1 -1
Alcohol CAGR 0 0 -0.02
Alcohol 0 0 -1
Termial multiple 9.31 10.51632 9.008
Vodka base 50 50 50 50 50
Vodka bull 50 51 52 53 54
Vodka bear 50 49 48 47 46
Beer base 62 62 62 62 62
Beer bull 62 63 64 65 66
Beer bear 62 61 60 59 58
Milk base 26 26 26 26 26
Milk bull 26 27 28 29 30
Milk bear 26 25 24 23 22
[E] Working capital [F] Loan payment
[L] Multiples [M] Countries
CHOOSE THE SCENERIO
2021
8.967%
6.47%
2.31%
2021
77.79%
22.21%
67.28%
1.3%
revenue forecast for APU Company
2010-2015 CAGR
Sector production
RGDP 0.10187 growth/RGDP growth
Vodka -0.00514 -0.050457527467424 -0.005140191
Beer 0.05840 0.573255980118646 0.058398526
Milk 0.13367 1.31209596615928
Others 0.09637 0.945947541209941
Population growth >15 1.0908%
2013 2014 2015 2016F

Total Revenue 193,715,871.00 198,468,871.00 210,111,177.00 227,259,080.54
Vodka 109,986,617.00 90,460,375.00 95,903,894.00 92,927,486.32
Beer 65,259,368.00 80,484,728.00 86,331,919.00 98,634,463.48
Milk 23,673,140.46 32,856,741.11
Others 18,469,886.00 27,523,768.00 4,202,223.54 2,840,389.64
27,875,364.00 0.08161347619668
114,207,283.00 134,331,594.23
CAGR of BEER MILK Oth0.16717716554194
[D] D&A [E] Working capital [F] Loan payment
[K] DCF FCFF [L] Multiples [M] Countries
1.0713% 1.1060% 1.1395% 1.1266% 1.1200%
2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

252,639,508.14 280,750,211.26 318,088,126.59 367,868,863.82 420,472,703.31
99,672,662.73 105,560,627.17 112,895,578.73 120,895,249.74 129,493,412.24
110,828,256.17 124,641,221.98 142,816,708.36 166,895,653.94 191,788,258.35
38,946,628.33 46,926,434.74 58,164,369.96 75,027,015.85 93,291,629.78
3,191,960.90 3,621,927.37 4,211,469.55 5,050,944.28 5,899,402.94
0.11168058733562 0.11126804088999 0.1329933650601 0.15649982838763 0.142996172454
152,966,845.41 175,189,584.08 205,192,547.86 246,973,614.07 290,979,291.07
Selling and administrative expenses for APU Company
Numbers in MNT thousand Result

2013 2014 2015
Wages and remuneration 4,968,497.00 4,172,542.00 3,888,536.00
Social insurance premium 527,213.00 481,712.00 494,322.00
Training 172,422.00 155,545.00 250,586.00
Business trips 665,145.00 778,969.00 536,697.00
Depreciation and amortisation 2,202,181.00 3,381,674.00 4,322,895.00
Transport 8,726,791.00 5,827,224.00 6,281,944.00
Marketing 1,883,773.00 3,250,593.00 2,526,191.00
Rental 2,474,394.00 1,951,474.00 1,869,338.00
Communications 205,462.00 188,205.00 163,961.00
Utilities 342,185.00 325,871.00 302,056.00
Fuel 287,969.00 157,208.00 119,279.00
Occupational safety 177,411.00 187,172.00 187,384.00
Professional and other service fees 1,802,350.00 3,847,849.00 1,611,103.00
Repairs and maintenance 958,725.00 429,434.00 501,846.00
Food material 964,194.00 949,761.00 816,601.00
Supply materials 580,630.00 314,708.00 307,190.00
Bad debt write off 488,768.00 10,054.00 -
Insurance 983,313.00 860,564.00 1,097,282.00
Transportation 496,435.00 124,129.00 140,456.00
Research and development 705,581.00 1,267,003.00 497,410.00
Other expenses 1,556,711.00 1,476,541.00 1,930,087.00
Total(without Depreciation) 31,170,150.00 30,138,232.00 27,845,164.00
Revenue 193,715,871.00 198,468,871.00 210,111,177.00
Other income, expenses for APU Company

2013 2014 2015
Rental 516,165 536,681 559,924
Reversal of bad debt 251,825
Gain on disposal of propert, plant and equip 183,894 158,738 10,230
Other 139,654 202,660 489,442
Total 839,713 898,079 1,311,421
Expense

2013 2014 2015
Penalties and fees 35 254,707 1,000
Loss on disposal of property, plant and equi 395,373 30,006 530,552
Loss on write of inventory 0 1,848,886 2,240,202
Impairment loss on property, pland and equi 0 349,052 0
Other employee benefits 127,829 0 0
Other 22,566 324 4,511
Total 545803 2482975 2776265
Financial income

2013 2014 2015
exchange rate at beginning of year 1392.1 1659.34 1888.44
exchange rate at end aof year 1659.34 1888.44 1995.51
Financial income 7,298,655 3,336,367 3,648,760
Revenue 193,715,871.00 198,468,871.00 210,111,177.00
proportion in revenue 0.0377 0.0168 0.0174
Financial expense

2013 2014 2015
exchange rate at beginning of year 1392.1 1,654 1,886
exchange rate at end aof year 1,654 1,886 1,996
foreign currency difference 262 232 110
2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

4,205,892.94 4,675,609.53 5,195,855.45 5,886,869.75 6,808,163.85
525,375.21 631,715.73 702,005.50 795,367.57 919,842.46
217,141.28 241,391.74 268,250.93 303,926.52 351,490.97
750,928.51 834,792.65 927,678.39 1,051,053.46 1,215,543.15
4,379,472.26 4,435,347.19 4,496,158.24 4,519,883.03 4,581,163.47
6,794,635.29 7,553,464.15 8,393,923.30 9,510,259.41 10,998,613.38
2,553,519.00 2,776,767.67 3,567,949.61 4,042,463.24 4,675,108.04
2,386,437.03 2,652,955.72 2,948,144.91 3,340,228.62 3,862,973.83
211,295.96 234,893.61 261,029.77 295,744.99 342,029.04
367,095.62 408,093.07 453,500.79 513,813.38 594,225.09
119,279.00 119,181.25 121,770.62 124,416.25 127,119.37
208,377.15 231,648.83 257,423.94 291,659.62 337,304.30
1,611,103.00 1,611,103.00 3,402,657.02 3,855,187.83 4,458,524.06
501,846.00 501,846.00 889,168.02 1,007,421.47 1,165,082.75
1,033,977.39 1,149,452.60 1,277,349.93 1,447,229.00 1,673,720.09
307,190.00 307,190.00 305,432.58 312,068.52 318,848.63
- - - - -
1,097,282.00 1,097,282.00 1,097,282.00 1,097,282.00 1,097,282.00
140,456.00 140,456.00 137,297.45 140,280.42 143,328.21
497,410.00 497,410.00 509,743.44 528,753.15 562,535.05
1,727,737.02 1,739,667.93 1,782,803.56 1,849,289.11 1,967,439.70
29,636,450.65 31,840,268.66 36,995,425.45 40,913,197.34 46,200,337.42
227,259,080.54 252,639,508.14 280,750,211.26 318,088,126.59 367,868,863.82
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

608565.5 676530.5 751806.7 851792.0 985097.3
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
308427.1 342872.4 381023.2 431696.7 499257.2

916,993 1,019,403 1,132,830 1,283,489 1,484,354
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0 0 0 0 0
2187109.41738126 2432355.82586294 2360026.9649437 2403412.40790102 2474947.38778529

- - - - -
- - - - -
10,574.54 11,619.08 12,725.30 14,228.12 16,223.54
2,197,683.96 2,443,974.91 2,372,752.27 2,417,640.53 2,491,170.93
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
3,883,446.84 4,317,152.46 4,797,513.56 5,435,551.03 6,286,213.84

227,259,080.54 252,639,508.14 280,750,211.26 318,088,126.59 367,868,863.82
0.01709 0.01709 0.01709 0.01709 0.01709
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1,996 0 0 0 0
-1,996 0 0 0 0
2021F
7,781,705.22
1,051,376.41
401,752.83
1,389,361.16
4,650,381.50
12,571,372.99
5,343,630.60
4,415,364.30
390,937.88
679,197.00
127,119.37
385,537.52
5,096,075.93
1,331,685.13
1,913,055.66
318,848.63
-
1,097,282.00
143,328.21
562,535.05
1,967,439.70
51,617,987.10
420,472,703.31
2021
1125962.5
570649.0
1,696,611
2021
2474895.99406276
18,274.47
2,493,170.47
2021
7,185,118.36
420,472,703.31
0.01709
Depreciation estimate for APU Company
Numbers in MNT thousand Building

2014 2015 2016
Beginning at year 37,547,663 79,693,868 77,618,023
Addition 309,200 20,261 165,060
Disposal -961,373 0
Ending at year 36,895,490 79,714,129 77,783,083
Depreciation 1,367,152 2,096,106 2,096,106
4,126
Total depreciation 1,367,152 2,096,106 2,100,232

Net asset 79,693,868 77,618,023 75,682,850
Numbers in MNT thousand Equipment

2014 2015 2016
Beginning at year 73,159,903.00 140,053,367.00 125,130,489.00
Addition 2,317,203 2,115,094 2,220,581
Disposal (198,709.0000) (638,093)
Depreciation 11,746,011 15,571,003 15,571,003
111,029.04
Total depreciation 11,746,011 15,571,003 15,682,032

Net asset 125,130,489 111,669,037.76
Numbers in MNT thousand Vehicle

2014 2015 2016
Beginning at year 4,544,548 4,270,748
Addition 932,513 1,226,183 1,081,506.70
Disposal -56,999 -237,024
Depreciation 553,850 1,262,959 1,262,959.00
108,150.67
Total depreciation 553,850 1,262,959 1,371,110

Net asset 4,544,548 4,270,748 3,981,145
Numbers in MNT thousand Furniture and Fixtures
2014 2015 2016
Beginning at year 1,595,257 1,275,876
Addition 398,782 162,356 281,130.14
Disposal -74,731 -164,664
Depreciation 317,073 317,073
28113.0138
Total depreciation 0 317,073 345,186

Net asset 1,595,257 1,275,876 1,211,820
Numbers in MNT thousand Depreciation

2014 2015 2016
Net asset 208,295,136 192,544,853
Depreciation 19,247,141 19,498,560
Amortisation estimate for APU Company
Numbers in MNT thousand Land

2014 2015 2016
Beginning at year 833,125 630,475
Addition 0 0
Disposal 0 0
Amortisation 202,650 202,650
Net book value 630,475 427,825
Numbers in MNT thousand Software

2014 2015 2016
Beginning at year 50,295 14,597
Addition 0
Amortisation 35,698 14,597
Net book value 14,597 0
Numbers in MNT thousand Amorticiation

2014 2015 2016
Net book value 645,072 427,825
Amorticiation 238,348 217,247
Numbers in MNT thousand Depreciation and Amorticiation

2014 2015 2016
Net asset 208,940,208 192,972,678

Depreciation 19,485,489 19,715,807
Total Addition 3,748,277.59
K] DCF FCFF [L] Multiples [M] Countries
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

75,682,850 73,678,988 71,711,742 69,728,770 67,757,094
98,841 138,931 126,364 141,190 142,436
75,781,691 73,817,919 71,838,105 69,869,959 67,899,530

2,096,106 2,096,106 2,096,106 2,096,106 2,096,106
4,126 4,126 4,126 4,126 4,126
2471 2471 2471 2471 2471
3473 3473 3473 3473
3159 3159 3159
3530 3530
3561
2,102,704 2,106,177 2,109,336 2,112,866 2,116,427
73,678,988 71,711,742 69,728,770 67,757,094 65,783,103
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

111,669,037.76 98,208,744.28 84,714,591.94 71,199,956.32 57,659,973.41
2,338,672 2,426,119 2,532,248 2,638,843 2,752,908 2638843
15,571,003 15,571,003 15,571,003 15,571,003 15,571,003

111,029 111,029 111,029 111,029 111,029
116,934 116,934 116,934 116,934 116,934
121,306 121,306 121,306 121,306
126,612 126,612 126,612
131,942 131,942
137,645
15,798,966 15,920,272 16,046,884 16,178,826 16,316,472
98,208,744.28 84,714,591.94 71,199,956.32 57,659,973.41 44,096,410.03
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

3,981,145 3,717,761 3,319,156 2,874,184 2,334,406
1,230,806.30 1,217,317.18 1,301,055.22 1,340,277.79 1,406,153.25
1,262,959.00 1,262,959.00 1,262,959.00 1,262,959.00 1,262,959.00

108,150.67 108,150.67 108,150.67 108,150.67 108,150.67
123,080.63 123,080.63 123,080.63 123,080.63 123,080.63
121,731.72 121,731.72 121,731.72 121,731.72
130,105.52 130,105.52 130,105.52
134,027.78 134,027.78
140,615.32
1,494,190 1,615,922 1,746,028 1,880,055 2,020,671
3,717,761 3,319,156 2,874,184 2,334,406 1,719,889
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
1,211,820 1,079,514 955,946 803,339 640,310
236,533.33 272,523.93 270,538.48 289,017.82 297,888.19
317,073 317,073 317,073 317,073 317,073

28113.0138 28113.0138 28113.0138 28113.0138 28113.0138
23653.33317023 23653.33317023 23653.33317023 23653.33317023 23653.33317023
27252.393362478 27252.393362478 27252.393362478 27252.393362478
27053.848365808 27053.848365808 27053.848365808
28901.781847793 28901.781847793
29788.819078664
368,839 396,092 423,146 452,047 481,836
1,079,514 955,946 803,339 640,310 456,362
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

176,685,007 160,701,436 144,606,249 128,391,783 112,055,764
19,764,699 20,038,462 20,325,393 20,623,795 20,935,405
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

427,825 225,175 22,525 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
202,650 202,650 22525 0 0
225,175 22,525 0 0 0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

225,175 22,525 - - -
202,650 202,650 22,525 0 0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
176,910,182 160,723,961 144,606,249 128,391,783 112,055,764

19,967,349 20,241,112 20,347,918 20,623,795 20,935,405
3,904,852.74 4,054,891.01 4,230,205.81 4,409,328.53 4,599,385.70
Жилийн эцэст нэмэлт хөрөнгө оруулалт хийдэг гэж үзэв. Мөн одоо байгаа үндсэн хөрөнгөөс зарж борлуулахгүй гэж үзэв
2752908
борлуулахгүй гэж үзэв.
Working capital for APU

Company 2013 2014 2015 2016F
Sales 193,715,871.00 198,468,871.00 210,111,177.00 227,259,080.54
Cost of Revenue (138,446,814.00) (154,521,126.00) (146,597,508.00) (168,236,244.35)
Purchase 177,407,284.00 132,766,877.00 178,054,082.03
Working capital balances
Account receivable 5,283,253.00 14,753,134.00 20,023,747.00 14,916,428.51
Account payable 34,343,198.00 47,678,531.00 38,041,366.00 45,766,573.69
Inventories 47,195,566.00 70,081,724.00 56,251,093.00 66,068,930.68
Account payable used goods purchased 51,017,397.23
Days in Year 365
Accounts Receivable Days 10 27 35 24
Accounts Payable Days -90.54211438914 -112.6232008884 -94.715788688577 -99
Inventory Days -124.42598780207 -165.54260198699 -140.0545563503 -143
Account payable used goods purchased 3.72090499180858 3.49006597186862 3.49006597186862
D&A [E] Working capital [F] Loan payment
CF FCFF [L] Multiples [M] Countries
2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

252,639,508.14 280,750,211.26 318,088,126.59 367,868,863.82 420,472,703.31
(185,507,862.70) (204,633,696.05) (229,837,726.58) (263,544,802.61) (299,179,058.24)
192,290,689.78 212,144,701.55 239,735,732.52 276,782,083.78 313,173,172.14
16,582,304.01 18,427,384.49 20,878,104.36 24,145,524.11 27,598,241.64

50,465,102.22 55,668,046.84 62,524,489.25 71,694,079.22 81,387,934.39
72,851,757.76 80,362,763.27 90,260,769.21 103,498,050.38 117,492,164.28
55,096,577.35 60,785,298.41 68,690,888.50 79,305,688.21 89,732,737.05
24 24 24 24 24
-99 -99 -99 -99 -99
-143 -143 -143 -143 -143
3 3 3 3 3
Financial expense estimate for APU Company
Numbers in USD thousand
EBRD
Remaining of core loan
Credit Suisse
EBRD
Weight of Loan
Credit Suisse
EBRD
Repayment of core loan
Credit Suisse
EBRD
Interest rate
Credit Suisse
EBRD
Interest Payment
Credit Suisse
Mongolian inflation
US inflation
PPP ex ante
MNT forecast
Exchange rate difference 1995.51
EBRD
Unrealized loss on foreign exchange /MNT/
Credit Suisse
EBRD
Realized loss on foreign exchange /MNT/
Credit Suisse
Foreign exchange loss
EBRD
Interest Payment /MNT/
Credit Suisse
Financial expense
2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

25636 17091 8546 0
18492 11074 3656 0
0.580946337926 0.606816971418 0.700376987379
0.419053662074 0.393183028582 0.299623012621
8545 8545 8545 8546
7418 7418 7418 3656
6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%
3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
2179 1598 1017 436
794 549 304 90
0.20% 6.67% 5.29% 6.29% 6.44% 6.47%

1.82% 2.56% 2.66% 2.42% 2.36% 2.31%
0.984079904931 1.040074102964 1.025618546659 1.037755191705 1.0398593 1.0407002
2489.53 2589.295681552 2655.629673784 2755.893481215 2865.7415 2982.3779
494.02 99.76568155226 66.33399223147 100.2638074312 109.84804 116.63634
12,664,696.72 1,705,095.26 566,890.30 - - -

9,135,417.84 1,104,805.16 242,517.08 - - -
4,221,400.90 852,497.75 566,823.96 856,854.50 - -
3,664,640.36 740,061.83 492,065.55 366,564.48 - -
29,686,155.82 4,402,460.00 1,868,296.89 1,223,418.98 - -
4,886,547.51 4,057,938.55 2,666,842.61 1,179,295.36 - -
1,780,183.02 846,427.97 419,155.56 127,686.04 - -
36,352,886.34 9,306,826.51 4,954,295.07 2,530,400.38 - -
Year Shares outsanding(equivalent to 2016) Dividend per share/₮/ Sum

2005 742,877,000.00 0.13 96,574,010.00
2006 742,877,000.00 0.06 44,572,620.00
2007 742,877,000.00 0.54 399,667,826.00
2008 742,877,000.00 1.00 742,877,000.00
2009 741,670,190.00 2.00 1,483,340,380.00
2010 741,670,190.00 4.00 2,966,680,760.00
2011 741,670,190.00 6.00 4,450,021,140.00
2012 741,670,190.00 7.00 5,191,691,330.00
2013 741,670,190.00 9.00 6,675,031,710.00
2014 741,670,190.00 -
2015 741,670,190.00 7.00 5,191,691,330.00
2016F 741,670,190.00 - -
2017F 741,670,190.00 3,995,609.63
2018F 741,670,190.00 5,219,767.87
2019F 741,670,190.00 6,794,899.56
2020F 741,670,190.00 21,932,071.76
2021F 741,670,190.00 26,311,731.07
Dividend
2017 2018
5191691.3 3,360,180.17 4,248,124.28
Net Income EPS Payout ratio
20,078,340,957.00 27.07 0.22

23,455,152,382.54 31.62 0.22
5,092,471,000.00 6.87 1.31
-
10,670,170,000.00 14.39 0.49
19,978,048.13 0.20
26,098,839.37 0.20
33,974,497.78 0.20
43,864,143.52 0.50
52,623,462.13 0.50
Dividend
2019 2020 2021
5,453,633.21 17,524,744.15 20,425,193.45
Balance Sheet for APU Company

2013 2014
Assets
Property, plant and equipment 163,194,912.00 225,887,040.00
Intangible assets 1,121,769.00 883,420.00
Biological investment 56,440.00 80,525.00
Long term investment 904,836.00 904,836.00
Defered tax assets 3,606,323.00 8,151,400.00
Non current assets 168,884,280.00 235,907,221.00
Inventories 47,195,566.00 70,081,724.00
Prepayments and prepaid expenses 16,413,975.00 5,217,765.00
Income tax receivables 1,346,847.00 957,529.00
Receivables 5,283,253.00 14,753,134.00
Short term investment 33,812.00 33,812.00
Cash and cash equivalents 28,835,248.00 9,946,981.00
Current assets 99,108,701.00 100,990,945.00
Total assets 267,992,981.00 336,898,166.00
Equity
Share capital 74,167.00 74,167.00
Revaluation reserve 14,349,191.00 81,032,442.00
Retained earnings 70,557,569.00 53,717,706.00
Total equity 84,980,927.00 134,824,315.00
Liabilities
Long-term debt 124,460,869.00 120,405,458.00
Defered tax liabilities 418,482.00 396,839.00
Other payables - 3,491,659.00
Non current liabilities 124,879,351.00 124,293,956.00
Short term loans and borrowings 23,683,307.00 30,101,364.00
Deferred income 106,198.00 -
Trade and other payables 34,343,198.00 47,678,531.00
Current liabilities 58,132,703.00 77,779,895.00
Total liabilities 183,012,054.00 202,073,851.00
Total equity and liabilities 267,992,981.00 336,898,166.00
Total equity and liabilities- Total asset

esult
2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F
208,295,136.00 192,972,678.37 176,910,182.29 160,723,961.14 144,606,248.91

645,072.00 427,825.00 225,175.00 22,525.00 -
102,990.00 102,990.00 102,990.00 102,990.00 102,990.00
904,836.00 904,836.00 904,836.00 904,836.00 904,836.00
6,304,570.00 6,304,570.00 6,304,570.00 2,304,570.00 2,304,570.00
216,252,604.00 200,712,899.37 184,447,753.29 164,058,882.14 147,918,644.91
56,251,093.00 66,068,930.68 72,851,757.76 80,362,763.27 90,260,769.21
5,280,309.00 5,021,238.73 5,536,733.59 4,107,570.01 4,859,818.46
1,068,072.00 1,068,072.00 1,068,072.00 1,068,072.00 1,068,072.00
20,023,747.00 14,916,428.51 16,582,304.01 18,427,384.49 20,878,104.36
33,812.00 33,812.00 33,812.00 33,812.00 33,812.00
6,762,570.00 13,754,086.67 7,593,649.37 6,817,948.24 12,457,938.04
89,419,603.00 100,862,568.59 103,666,328.73 110,817,550.00 129,558,514.07
305,672,207.00 301,575,467.96 288,114,082.02 274,876,432.14 277,477,158.98
74,167.00 74,167.00 74,167.00 74,167.00 74,167.00

80,694,981.00 80,694,981.00 80,694,981.00 80,694,981.00 80,694,981.00
64,725,337.00 56,514,678.39 76,492,726.52 99,231,385.72 128,957,759.21
145,494,485.00 137,283,826.39 157,261,874.52 180,000,533.72 209,726,907.21
88,080,211.00 70,117,612.45 31,594,585.91 - -

254,437.00 254,437.00 254,437.00 254,437.00 254,437.00
1,938,258.00 3,161,827.50 3,414,636.63 3,767,197.83 4,257,150.54
90,272,906.00 73,533,876.95 35,263,659.54 4,021,634.83 4,511,587.54
31,863,450.00 39,740,367.39 41,332,926.96 32,403,993.28 -
- - - - -
38,041,366.00 51,017,397.23 55,096,577.35 60,785,298.41 68,690,888.50
69,904,816.00 90,757,764.62 96,429,504.32 93,189,291.68 68,690,888.50
160,177,722.00 164,291,641.56 131,693,163.85 97,210,926.51 73,202,476.04
305,672,207.00 301,575,467.96 288,955,038.37 277,211,460.23 282,929,383.24
- 840,956.36 2,335,028.09 5,452,224.26

2020F 2021F
128,391,782.94 112,055,763.68
- -
102,990.00 102,990.00
904,836.00 904,836.00
6,304,570.00 6,304,570.00
135,704,178.94 119,368,159.68
103,498,050.38 117,492,164.28
7,865,851.83 8,929,404.49
1,068,072.00 1,068,072.00
24,145,524.11 27,598,241.64
33,812.00 33,812.00
49,321,407.54 85,233,899.74
185,932,717.86 240,355,594.15
321,636,896.80 359,723,753.82 -
74,167.00 74,167.00
80,694,981.00 80,694,981.00
167,368,269.52 202,466,987.50
248,137,417.52 283,236,135.50
1 Зөрүү дүнг шууд cash дансанд бичсэн /2016-2019/
- - 2 2020 2021 онд CApEX хийнэ гэж үзэх
254,437.00 254,437.00 3.00
4,628,174.49 5,092,305.92
4,882,611.49 5,346,742.92
- -
-
79,305,688.21 89,732,737.05
79,305,688.21 89,732,737.05
84,188,299.69 95,079,479.98
332,325,717.21 378,315,615.47
10,688,820.41 18,591,861.65
бичсэн /2016-2019/
Income statement for APU Company

2013 2014 2015
(In thousands of MNT) 2013 2014 2015
Revenue 193,715,871.00 198,468,871.00 210,111,177.00
Cost of revenue (138,446,814.00) (154,521,126.00) (146,597,508.00)
Gross profit 55,269,057.00 43,947,745.00 63,513,669.00
Selling and administrative expenses (31,170,150.00) (30,138,232.00) (27,845,164.00)
Other income 839,713.00 898,079.00 1,311,421.00
Other expenses (545,803.00) (2,482,975.00) (2,776,265.00)
Operating income 24,392,817.00 12,224,617.00 34,203,661.00
Finance income 7,298,655.00 3,336,367.00 3,648,760.00
Finance costs (25,133,494.00) (29,923,995.00) (19,805,580.00)
(Loss) profit before income tax 6,557,978.00 (14,363,011.00) 18,046,841.00
Income tax benefit (expense) (1,465,507.00) 4,198,180.00 (7,376,671.00)
(Loss) profit for the year 5,092,471.00 (10,164,831.00) 10,670,170.00
Effective tax rate (0.3082)
Tax rate (0.22) (0.29) (0.41)
Other comprehensive income:
Items that will never be reclassified to profit or loss:
Revaluation of property, plant and equipmen - 66,683,251.00 -
Net income 5,092,471.00 56,518,420.00 10,670,170.00
Earnings per share
Basic earnings per share 69.00 (137.00) 144.00
EBITDA
COGS without dep&amor (130,581,928.00) (143,606,347.00) (130,441,724.00)

Weight of COGS with Sales (0.67) (0.72) (0.62)
2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
227,259,080.54 252,639,508.14 280,750,211.26 318,088,126.59 367,868,863.82

(168,236,244.35) (185,507,862.70) (204,633,696.05) (229,837,726.58) (263,544,802.61)
59,022,836.19 67,131,645.44 76,116,515.21 88,250,400.01 104,324,061.21
(29,636,450.65) (31,840,268.66) (36,995,425.45) (40,913,197.34) (46,200,337.42)
916,992.62 1,019,402.90 1,132,829.86 1,283,488.72 1,484,354.48
(2,197,683.96) (2,443,974.91) (2,372,752.27) (2,417,640.53) (2,491,170.93)
28,105,694.21 33,866,804.76 37,881,167.35 46,203,050.86 57,116,907.33
3,883,446.84 4,317,152.46 4,797,513.56 5,435,551.03 6,286,213.84
(36,352,886.34) (9,306,826.51) (4,954,295.07) (2,530,400.38) -
(4,363,745.30) 28,877,130.72 37,724,385.85 49,108,201.52 63,403,121.17
1,344,777.99 (8,899,082.59) (11,625,546.48) (15,133,703.74) (19,538,977.66)
(3,018,967.31) 19,978,048.13 26,098,839.37 33,974,497.78 43,864,143.52
(0.67)
2021F
420,472,703.31
(299,179,058.24)
121,293,645.06
(51,617,987.10)
1,696,611.49
(2,493,170.47)
68,879,098.99
7,185,118.36
-
76,064,217.35
(23,440,755.21)
52,623,462.13
2016 2017F 2018F

Cost of Equity 23.89% 23.89%
Cost of Debt 9.55% 8.03%
Equity % 0.72 0.80 0.90
Debt % 0.28 0.20 0.10
WACC 19.0703% 20.1442%
Constant weights
Market Cap APU (12/23/2016) 284,031,589,459.50 284,031,589,459.50 284,031,589,459.50
Total Debt (2016 ending) 109,857,979,840.00 72,927,512,870.92 32,403,993,279.51
Equity % 0.72 0.79570 0.89760
Debt % 0.28 0.20 0.10
Cost of Equity
MSE TOP 20 Index
1/6/2006 1016.91
1/6/2017 12162.06
11-year MSE-Top20 CAGR (marke 25.31% Survivorship Bias

10-year Mongolian Gov Bond Yield 18.19% <------------ Bloomberg terminalaas avav 10-yea
Raw beta 0.7014
Adjusted Beta (APU) 0.80093 <------------ Top20 index-g APU-n huvitsaanii ha
Equity Risk Premium 7.12%
Cost of Equity (APU) 23.89%
Cost of Debt
1. Weights of loans from EBRD and Credit Suisse are estimated by the end of 201
2016F
LIBOR forecast 1.30%
EBRD 6.800%
Interest rate
Credit Suisse 3.30%
Weighted average cost of debt by USD 5.33%

Weighted average cost of debt by MNT 3.66%
Tax rate 0.308170596263629
Weighted average cost of debt after tax 2.53%
2019F 2020F 2021F

23.89% 23.89% 23.89%
9.31% 9.53% 9.62%
1.00 1.00 1.00
- - -
22.1029% 23.8897% 23.8897%
- - -
terminalaas avav 10-year gov bond yield
x-g APU-n huvitsaanii haaltiin hanshin deer regressdej apugiin betag olov
mated by the end of 2016.
2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%
6.800% 6.800% 6.800% 6.800% 6.800%

3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30%
5.33% 5.33% 5.33% 5.33% 5.33%

9.55% 8.03% 9.31% 9.53% 9.62%
6.61% 5.56% 6.44% 6.59% 6.66%

2016 2017F
Net income (3,018,967.31) 19,978,048.13
Depreciation 19,715,807.22 19,967,348.82
Capex (3,748,277.59) (3,904,852.74)
Net Work/cap investment 3,014,688.51 (3,750,174.05)
Interest expense after tax 4,612,240.20 3,392,984.96
Unrealized exchange rate losses 2,809,900.42
FCFF 38,493,255.54
WACC 19.0703%
Terminal Value
PV of FCFF
Enterprise Value 486,589,977.45 32,328,172.09
MV of Debt 109,857,979.84
Cash and Cash equivalent Q4 2016 13,754,086.67
Equity Value 390,486,084.28
Market Cap 284,031,589.46
Total shares outstanding 741,670,190
Estimated Value per share 526.495590011771
1/6/2016 Market price per share 371
2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Terminal FCFF, WACC

26,098,839.37 33,974,497.78 43,864,143.52 52,623,462.13
20,241,112.16 20,347,918.04 20,623,794.51 20,935,404.96
(4,054,891.01) (4,230,205.81) (4,409,328.53) (4,599,385.70)
(4,153,141.37) (5,492,283.40) (7,335,110.95) (7,752,976.26)
2,134,984.28 904,208.16 - -
809,407.37 - - -
41,076,310.79 45,504,134.76 52,743,498.54 61,206,505.13
20.1442% 22.1029% 23.8897% 23.8897% 23.8897%
Terminal FCFF -
`
28,713,429.18 26,050,645.17 24,372,570.90 375,125,160.11
EV (APU) 2021 944,517,923.40

EBITDA 89,814,503.95
+ Operating income 68,879,098.99
+ Depreciation and am 20,935,404.96
Peer companies Nationality Production

1 Societe des Brasseries du Maroc Morocco Beer, Wine, Water, Olive oil
Energy drink, Soft drink, Beer, Milk,Wine, Dried
2 Rita Food and Drink Co ltd Vietnam friut(2013 Q4)
3 Ginebra San Miguel Philliphines Vodka, Liquor(2015 Q4)
4 Murre Brewery Pakistan Beer,Liquor, Soft drink(2016 Q2)
5 East African Breweries Limited East Africa Beer, Vodka, soft drinks (2015 Q2)
6 Lion brewery Sri-Lanka Vodka, Beer, Soft drink(2016 Q1)
8 Ambev S.A Brazil Alcoholic beverage, non-alcoholic beverage
11 Campania Cerveceries Unidas S.A Chile/Latin AmAlcoholic beverage, soft drink
12 Thai beverages Thailand Alcoholic beverage, soft drink, Liquor
13 Xinjiang China Beer, Liquor
Median
60th percentile
40th percentile
EBITDA:
+ Income before tax
+ Finance cost
- Finance income
+ Depreciation and Amortisation
Interprise value
+ Market Capitalization
+ Non-Current asset Market value of Debt
- Defered Tax liablilities
+ Cash and cash equivalent
EV/EBITDA Shares outstanding(thousand) Market Capitalization EV
2,830,000.00 6,254,300,000.00 5,965,761,000.00

5.91 286,330,000.00 3,516,132,400.00 28,389,132,400.00
5.95 23,050,000.00 14,244,900,000.00 12,555,549,000.00
23.07 1,580,000.00 481,900,000.00 503,569,756.00
9.60 80,000,000.00 38,560,000,000.00 47,033,000,000.00
11.89
9.02
26.02
8.99
9.31
10.516318432
9.008
EBITDA
571,690,000.00
23,760,000,000.00
2,111,742,000.00
21,826,825.00
4,899,000,000.00
Armenia 1992 1993 1994 1995

population 15 and above
armenia rgdp 1,005.09 863.837 910.484 983.622
dairy/milk/ prods (1000 tons) 5.4
vodka (1000liters) 10170
beer (1000liters) 5350
soft drinks, mineral water, natural juices
dairy/milk/ prods (tons)

per capita
vodka (liters)
beer (liters)
soft drinks, mineral water, natural juices * 1000
Republic of Moldova
Real gdp
Milk product
Vodka(1000 litres)
Beer
Soft drink,mineral water, juices/million dal/
Milk product * 1000

per capita
Vodka( litres)
Beer * 1000
Soft drink,mineral water, juices/dal/
Ukraine
Real gdp(2010=100%,mill.doll)
Milk(thous.tonn)
Vodka/mill.dal/
Beer/mill.dal/
Soft drink
Milk(kg)
per capita
Vodka/dal/
Beer/dal/
Soft drink * 1000000
Vietnam
Real gdp(trill, LCU)
Milk
Vodka
Beer
Soft drink
per capita Milk * 1000000

Vodka * 1000000
Beer * 1000000
Soft drink * 1000000
2002 2003 2004

Архи 9436.2 8873.1 9161
Пиво 3375.3 3027.6 7980.7
Үйлдвэрлэл
Сүүн бүтээг 3.2 5.2 5.9
Ус ундаа 12907.3 24561.1 34032.7
Өөрчлөлт Архи -5.967% 3.245%

Пиво -10.301% 163.598%
Сүүн бүтээ 62.500% 13.462%
Ус ундаа 90.288% 38.563%
GDP/Хэрэглээ/ 2005
2010
GDP/Нийт/ Real 2005 ### ### ###
2010
Өөрчлөлт Нийт 0.0700 0.1063
Хэрэглээ
Харьцаа Архи -0.851928 0.305366

Пиво -1.470642 15.396891
Сүүн бүтээгдэхүүн 8.9226657 1.2669198
Ус ундаа 12.889817 3.6293594
2002-2015 2010-2015
CAGR Rgdp 0.08309 0.10187
Архи 0.06427 0.00782 -0.09405
Пиво 0.26921 0.10774 0.00587
Сүүн бүтээ 0.26828 0.15773 0.05586
Ус ундаа 0.25349 0.12454 0.02267
2002 2003 2004 2005

Хүн ам/15</ 1650849 1700662 1749802 1795548
Архи 5.72 5.22 5.24 4.43
Пиво 2.04 1.78 4.56 4.45
Сүүн бүтээгдэхүүн 1.94 3.06 3.37 3.95
Ус ундаа 7.82 14.44 19.45 23.54
2002-2014 2010-2014
CAGR Архи 0.0604648 0.993935
Пиво 0.2585468 1.0924802
Сүүн бүтээгдэхүүн 0.2692619 1.1417795
Ус ундаа 0.243784 1.1090496
GDP/Нийт/ Re 2005
2010
30000 Real GDP vs Vodka/Mongolia/ 8,000,000.0

7,000,000.0
25000
6,000,000.0
20000
5,000,000.0
15000 4,000,000.0
3,000,000.0
10000
2,000,000.0
5000
1,000,000.0
0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Row 103 Row 91

10000
2,000,000.0
5000
1,000,000.0
0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Row 103 Row 91

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

2256168 2251606 2257042 2268083 2280603 2298040 2315132 2330852 2344226
1,034.47 1,069.51 1,136.58 1,172.61 1,241.24 1,358.76 1,559.95 1,779.16 1,965.49
253.3 250.7 188.2 192.2 190.5 196.6 206.9 218.1 279
6050 5920 6958 8740 10180 9460 10335 11249 12878
2940 5040 13293 8430 7940 9970 7078 7312 8834
60740
0.11 0.11 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.12

2.68 2.63 3.08 3.85 4.46 4.12 4.46 4.83 5.49
1.30 2.24 5.89 3.72 3.48 4.34 3.06 3.14 3.77
25.91
2844932 2875841.59 2905135.17

17372 16235 15688 16019 16996 18322 19531 20977
14539 16662 17258
90.6 70.7 35.9 51.7 66.1 41.1 69.1 50.9
5.11 5.79 5.94
14.45 24.03 17.52
40457566 40344704
112357 125952
1072 1183
26.7 40.3
170 194
210.8 225
26.50 29.32
0.66 1.00
4.20 4.81
5.21 5.58
rgdp vs milk/vietnam/
1200 1400
1000 1200
800 1000
800
600
600
400 400
200 200
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Row 51 Row 50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

7956.4 10719.6 12591.3 15277.4 17410.9 20396.7 25596.1 26894.4 24852.3
7996.9 7393 18377.7 19891.1 32445.1 44878.5 57133.6 65124.6 63775.3
7.1 6.2 9.2 13 16.1 33.8 55.4 72.8 63.9
42260.6 38813.2 69732.1 85975.8 86967.9 135372 163136 177172.1 210705.3
-13.149% 34.729% 17.461% 21.333% 13.965% 17.149% 25.491% 5.072% -7.593%

0.203% -7.552% 148.582% 8.235% 63.114% 38.321% 27.307% 13.987% -2.072%
20.339% -12.676% 48.387% 41.304% 23.846% 109.938% 63.905% 31.408% -12.225%
24.176% -8.157% 79.661% 23.294% 1.154% 55.657% 20.509% 8.604% 18.927%
0.15 0.46
0.57 0.19
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### ###
0.0725 0.0856 0.1025 0.0890 -0.0127 0.0637 0.1729 0.1232 0.1165
-1.812769 4.0589422 1.7037973 2.3968654 -11.00825 2.6942006 1.474276 0.41171521 -0.6518229
0.0279844 -0.882593 14.498656 0.9252404 -49.75063 6.0204814 1.5792977 1.13528578 -0.1778598
2.8039594 -1.481499 4.7216069 4.6407461 -18.79722 17.271809 3.6959197 2.54938332 -1.0494774
3.3329983 -0.953396 7.7732896 2.6172442 -0.909608 8.7440695 1.1861474 0.69838081 1.62477839
Өсөлтийн хCorrelation 2002-2015 1.1018716

0.07677 0.0936236 0.8753662 0.18807
1.05764 0.9406999 0.9623689 5.54593
1.54833 0.8453242 0.9489377 3.16450
t-test
1.22256 0.9906402 0.9879229 14.51496
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1838783 1877804 1913421 1947647 1981495 2010757 2040817 2070324 2098032
5.83 6.71 7.98 8.94 10.29 12.73 13.18 12.00 11.56
4.02 9.79 10.40 16.66 22.65 28.41 31.91 30.80 32.29
3.37 4.90 6.79 8.27 17.06 27.55 35.67 30.86 33.89
21.11 37.13 44.93 44.65 68.32 81.13 86.81 101.77 107.17
1. 2015 оны data олох
Real gdp vs Milk/Mongolia

8,000,000.0 Real GDP and Beer production
7,000,000.0 80 8,000,00
18,000,000.0 80000
6,000,000.0
16,000,000.0 70000 70 7,000,00
14,000,000.0
5,000,000.0 60000 60 6,000,00
12,000,000.0
4,000,000.0 50000 50 5,000,00
10,000,000.0
3,000,000.0 40000
8,000,000.0 40 4,000,00
2,000,000.0 30000
6,000,000.0 30 3,000,00
1,000,000.0
4,000,000.0 20000
20 2,000,00
0.0 2,000,000.0 10000
13 14 0.0 0 10 1,000,00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Beer production Real GDP
8,000,000.0 40 4,000,00
2,000,000.0 30000
6,000,000.0 30 3,000,00
1,000,000.0
4,000,000.0 20000
20 2,000,00
0.0 2,000,000.0 10000
13 14 0.0 0 10 1,000,00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Beer production Real GDP
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2354569 2355981 2355538 2354223 2353621 2355536 2375978 2399412 2423284
2,242.88 2,538.90 2,887.97 3,088.62 2,651.58 2,709.92 2,837.27 3,039.69 3,140.00
300 312 351 369 287 300 316 320 363
13921 12787 12735 12155 13278 11923 9136 10104 9942
10751 12618 11631 10527 10834 15353 14744 13668 19848
60882 67687 75414 87562 70605 79922 89984 95239 124427
0.13 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.15

5.91 5.43 5.41 5.16 5.64 5.06 3.85 4.21 4.10
4.57 5.36 4.94 4.47 4.60 6.52 6.21 5.70 8.19
25.86 28.73 32.02 37.19 30.00 33.93 37.87 39.69 51.35
2929514.31 2942849.8 2953583.16 2961536.71 2968378.11 2973735.22 2981629.08 2988720.26 2993314.41

22550 23632 24341 26240 24666 26417 28213 28016 30649
21032 21378 23581 23934 24464 25615 27314 29144 30216
4905.9 2624.9 2019.8 1417.8 1059.4 1289.7 1967.1 2601.3 3380
41.6 45.8 70.2 52.1 40.3 45.2 47.7 63.9 64.9
7.18 7.26 7.98 8.08 8.24 8.61 9.16 9.75 10.09

1.67 0.89 0.68 0.48 0.36 0.43 0.66 0.87 1.13
14.20 15.56 23.77 17.59 13.58 15.20 16.00 21.38 21.68
40204977 40079572 39930850 39764711 39624673 39500893 39251522 39092692 38947010

129353 138795 149760 153205 130530 136013 143446 143789 143750
1363 1344 1395 1340 1262 1280 1368 1401 1494
35.1 35.5 37.2 40 42.3 40.7 33.4 33.8 28
238 268 316 320 300 310 305.6 301 278.5
283.8 306.7 356.5 328.4 277.5 291.4 277 277.7 255
33.90 33.53 34.94 33.70 31.85 32.40 34.85 35.84 38.36

0.87 0.89 0.93 1.01 1.07 1.03 0.85 0.86 0.72
5.92 6.69 7.91 8.05 7.57 7.85 7.79 7.70 7.15
7.06 7.65 8.93 8.26 7.00 7.38 7.06 7.10 6.55
63977335 65238221 66350475 67322896 68206105 68998481

1215.755 1035.84 1079.346 1138.338 1141.055 1140.75
383.8 493.1 579.5 721.4 782.5 847.7
1847.2 2007.5 2420.2 2625.7 2978.7 3004.1

956.4 1097 1342.9 1572.2 1694.7 1941.7
6.00 7.56 8.73 10.72 11.47 12.29
28.87 30.77 36.48 39.00 43.67 43.54

14.95 16.82 20.24 23.35 24.85 28.14
am/ rgdp vs beer /vietnam/

1400 4000 1400
1200 3500 1200
1000 3000 1000
800 2500
600 800
2000
400 600
1500
200
1000 400
0
6 7 8 500 200
50 0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
rgdp vs soft drink/Vietnam/

2500
2000 1200
1500 800
1000
400
500
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

24258.1 21,206.90 21207.5675 21223.4587 21279.9506 21363.7621 21504.3918
67740.7 74,857.20 74889.6604 75662.7108 78437.1286 82692.8695 90191.5988
71.1 70.3 70.3446276 71.4076563 75.2408683 81.2172096 91.9991212
224843.3 243,450.70 243572.729 246479.079 256926.36 273040.065 301660.697 Nominal growth
Forecast 2016F
-2.391% -12.578% 3.1477E-05 0.00074932 0.00266176 0.00393852 0.00658263 3.3327E-05
6.218% 10.506% 0.00043363 0.01032253 0.03666823 0.05425671 0.09068169 0.00045911
11.268% -1.125% 0.00063482 0.01511173 0.05368069 0.07942946 0.13275403 0.00067212
6.710% 8.276% 0.00050125 0.01193216 0.04238608 0.06271721 0.1048221 0.0005307
Inflation fore 0.05876 0.05815 0.06444 0.06397 0.06473
### ###
### ### Forecast
0.0789 0.0236 0.00041 0.00976 0.03467 0.0513 0.08574
MEAN MEDIAN
-0.3032159 -5.3360852 -0.5322241 0.30536603
0.78853391 4.45682555 -0.5732714 0.92524045
1.42895161 -0.4773416 1.96126342 2.54938332
0.85093895 3.51086883 3.46114527 2.61724424
2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

2123833 2147000 2170000 2194000 2219000 2244000
9.99
35.2462741
33.100531
114.627986
Real gdp vs Milk/Mongolia/ Chart Title

18,000,000.0 3000
8,000,000.0 16,000,000.0
2500
7,000,000.0 14,000,000.0
6,000,000.0 12,000,000.0 2000
5,000,000.0 10,000,000.0
1500
4,000,000.0 8,000,000.0
3,000,000.0 6,000,000.0 1000
2,000,000.0 4,000,000.0
5000
1,000,000.0 2,000,000.0
0.0 0.0 0
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1 2 3 4 5 6
4,000,000.0 8,000,000.0
3,000,000.0 6,000,000.0 1000
2,000,000.0 4,000,000.0
5000
1,000,000.0 2,000,000.0
0.0 0.0 0
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1 2 3 4 5 6
2014 2015
2445095 2462939
3,253.22 3,351.32 corr vs rgdp t-test H0 r=0 tcrit5% pvalue
rgdp vs dairy/ar
0.89992 8.25506 2.11991 0.00000 3,500.00
0.62249 3.18153 2.11991 0.00580
3,000.00
0.72845 4.25317 2.11991 0.00061
0.81247 3.94166 2.30600 0.00117 2,500.00
corr vs rgdp t-test H0 r=0 tcrit5% pvalue
2,000.00
0.87436 7.20701 2.11991 0.00000
0.57385 2.80285 2.11991 0.01277 1,500.00
0.70349 3.95937 2.11991 0.00112
0.82217 4.08518 2.30600 0.00086 1,000.00
500.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
2994956.74 2994961.22
32120 31190 corr vs rgdp t-test H0 r=0 tcrit5% pvalue Row 8
31542 32659 0.98522 19.92662 2.14479 0.00000
3264.3 2736.8 0.07321 0.22023 2.20099 0.82848
66.2 57.6 0.35287 1.30644 2.14479 0.20987

rgdp vs m
Row
10.53 10.90 0.98491 19.71208 2.14479 0.00000
1.09 0.91 0.05124 0.15393 2.20099 0.87959 35000
22.10 19.23 0.28129 1.01543 2.14479 0.32501 30000
25000
38740739 38451186 20000

0.81397 4.20367 2.20099 0.00067
15000
0.22714 0.69970 2.20099 0.49416
0.86303 5.12545 2.20099 0.00010
10000
0.78867 3.84834 2.20099 0.00142
0.81060 4.15263 2.20099 0.00075 5000
0.27507 0.85833 2.20099 0.40339
0.86168 5.09424 2.20099 0.00011 0
0.82374 4.35861 2.20099 0.00049 1 2 3 4 5 6
rgdp vs milk
69764035 70529679 1600
1066 960.789 corr vs rgdp t-test H0 r=0 tcrit5% pvalue 1400
936.7 1069 -0.54690 -1.60014 2.30600 0.12912 1200
1000
3287.2 3526.4 -0.49481 2.30600 1.14682 800
600
400
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
2111.5 2327.5 -0.51836 -1.48476 2.30600 0.15704
400
corr vs rgdp t-test H0 r=0 tcrit5% pvalue 200
13.43 15.16 -0.54302 -1.58399 2.30600 0.13276 0
1 2 3 4 5 6
47.12 50.00 -0.48202 -1.34759 2.30600 0.19657 Row 37
30.27 33.00 -0.51096 -1.45602 2.30600 0.16473
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
8
Nominal growth
2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
0.00079289 0.00283329 0.0041904678 0.00700872
0.01092278 0.03903113 0.057727517 0.096551517
0.01599047 0.05713987 0.0845105586 0.141347195
0.01262602 0.04511743 0.0667292309 0.111607233
АПУ ХК-ны Борлуулалтын орлогын задаргаа

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F
Архи ### ### 95,903,894.00 ### ###
Пиво ### ### 86,331,919.00 ### ###
Сүү сүүн бүтээгдэхүүн ### ###
Ус ундаа ### ### 27,875,364.00 ### ###
Архи 1.0029686
CAGR/2015-2020/
Пиво 1.0403746
Сүү ###
Ус ундаа 4,202,223.54
НИЙТ - - ### ### ### ### ###
growth 0.0245 0.0587 0.0003 0.0069
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
5 6
100000
50000
0
5 6
rgdp vs dairy/armenia/ rgdp vs beer/armenia/ rgdp vs vodk
3,500.00 400 25000 3,500.00 3,500.00
3,000.00 350
3,000.00 3,000.00
300 20000
2,500.00
2,500.00 2,500.00
250
2,000.00
15000 2,000.00
200 2,000.00
1,500.00
150 1,500.00
1,500.00
1,000.00 10000
100
1,000.00 1,000.00
500.00 50
5000
0.00 0 500.00 500.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
0 0.00 0.00
Row 8 Row 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516 1718 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91
rgdp vs milk/moldova/
rgdp vs vodka /moldova/
Row 23 Row 22
6000 35000
35000 35000
30000
30000 30000 5000
25000
25000 25000 4000
20000 20000 20000

3000
15000 15000 15000
2000
10000 10000 10000
5000 5000 1000

5000
0 0
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
rgdp vs milk /ukraine/

rdgp vs vodka/ukraine/
1600 180000
160000 45
1400
140000 40
1200
120000 35
1000
100000 30
800 25
80000
600 60000 20
400 40000 15
200 20000 10
0 0 5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1600 180000
160000 45
1400
140000 40
1200
120000 35
1000
100000 30
800 25
80000
600 60000 20
400 40000 15
200 20000 10
0 0 5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Row 37 Row 36
2018F 2019F 2020F

### ### ###
### ### ###
### ### ###
### ### ###
### ### ###

0.0248 0.0373 0.0639
rgdp vs vodka/armenia/ rgdp vs soft drink, juice/armenia/
0.00 16000 3,500.00 140000
0.00 14000 3,000.00 120000
12000 2,500.00 100000

0.00
10000
0.00 2,000.00 80000
8000
0.00 1,500.00 60000
6000
0.00 1,000.00 40000
4000
0.00 2000 500.00 20000
0.00 0 0.00 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617 18
35000
rgdp vs sof drink /moldova/
80 35000
30000
70 30000
25000
60
25000
20000 50
20000
15000 40
15000
30
10000
10000
20
5000
10 5000
0
10 11 0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
kraine/ rgdp vs Beer/Ukraine/ rgd

180000 350 180000 400
160000 300 160000 350
140000 140000 300
250 120000
120000
200 100000 250
100000
80000 150 80000 200
60000 100 60000 150
40000 40000
50 100
20000 20000
0 0 50
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
8 9 10 11 0
180000 350 180000 400
160000 300 160000 350
140000 140000 300
250 120000
120000
200 100000 250
100000
80000 150 80000 200
60000 100 60000 150
40000 40000 100
50 20000
20000 50
0 0 0
8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0
1 2 3 4
rgdp vs soft drink/ukraine/
400 180000
350 160000
300 140000
250 120000
100000
200
80000
150 60000
100 40000
50 20000
0 0
400 180000
350 160000
300 140000
250 120000
100000
200
80000
150 60000
100 40000
50 20000
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
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№ Sheet name Comment Style Design

B Revenue Forecast Based on the assumptions, each market Header 2 Header2

A user driven input

The sum of elements above, including sub-totals

The SUM() of everything to the right

Header of a table or of an off-sheet reference

The closing balance of a control account

Base case 1 Metrics 2 CHOOSE THE SCENE

Assumption for APU Company Valuation

Computing WACC assumption

Case assumptions Base Bull Bear

[L] Multiples [M] Countries

CHOOSE THE SCENERIO

revenue forecast for APU Company

2013 2014 2015 2016F

[K] DCF FCFF [L] Multiples [M] Countries

1.0713% 1.1060% 1.1395% 1.1266% 1.1200%

2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

Selling and administrative expenses for APU Company

Numbers in MNT thousand Result

Other income, expenses for APU Company

Numbers in MNT thousand Result

Numbers in MNT thousand Result

Numbers in MNT thousand Result

Numbers in MNT thousand Result

[K] DCF FCFF [L] Multiples [M] Countries

2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

308427.1 342872.4 381023.2 431696.7 499257.2

2187109.41738126 2432355.82586294 2360026.9649437 2403412.40790102 2474947.38778529

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

3,883,446.84 4,317,152.46 4,797,513.56 5,435,551.03 6,286,213.84

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Depreciation estimate for APU Company

Numbers in MNT thousand Building

Total depreciation 1,367,152 2,096,106 2,100,232

Numbers in MNT thousand Equipment

Total depreciation 11,746,011 15,571,003 15,682,032

Numbers in MNT thousand Vehicle

Total depreciation 553,850 1,262,959 1,371,110

Total depreciation 0 317,073 345,186

Numbers in MNT thousand Depreciation

Numbers in MNT thousand Land

Numbers in MNT thousand Software

Numbers in MNT thousand Amorticiation

Numbers in MNT thousand Depreciation and Amorticiation

Net asset 208,940,208 192,972,678

K] DCF FCFF [L] Multiples [M] Countries

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

75,781,691 73,817,919 71,838,105 69,869,959 67,899,530

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

15,571,003 15,571,003 15,571,003 15,571,003 15,571,003

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1,262,959.00 1,262,959.00 1,262,959.00 1,262,959.00 1,262,959.00

317,073 317,073 317,073 317,073 317,073

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

176,910,182 160,723,961 144,606,249 128,391,783 112,055,764

Working capital for APU