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Scenario 1 38.76254546
Scenario 2 48.497304
Scenario 3 33.60240077
Scenario 4 18.71197605
WACC
Weight of debt 0.28 0.37
Weight of equity 0.72 0.63
Cost of debt 7.96% 4.77600%
Cost of equity 9.5% 10.0%
Aset Beta*(1+(1-T)*d/E)
Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Revenue 55.3 58.6 62.1 65.9 69.8 69.8
37.9911 39.86024 41.630504 43.469702 45.379734 47.194924
Working Capital 24 25.432188 26.951175 28.600362 30.292948 30.292948
Accounts receivables 8
Inventories 18
Accounts payables 2
Percentage of Revenue 0.4339964
173
COGS/avg inventory 2.1098266
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007
EBIAT 1.8 2.5 3.4 4.3 4.9 4.9 WACC
plus(D&A) 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.9 8%
minus(NWC) 1.4321881 1.5189873 1.6491863 1.6925859 0
minus(Capex) 4 3.5 3.6 3.8 2.9
FCFF -0.632188 0.8810127 1.7508137 2.3074141 4.9 60.82423
Total Debt 12
Equity value 35.864704 Total shares 584000
Netincome + I*(1-T)+D/A
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007
Revenue 55.3 58.6 62.1 65.9 69.8 72.6 Terminal Value
COGS 38.0 39.9 41.6 43.5 45.4 47.2
Gross profit 17.3 18.8 20.5 22.4 24.4 25.4
SG&A 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 13.3 13.8
Depreciation 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.9
EBIT 3.0 4.1 5.6 7.2 8.3 8.7
Tax 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.9 3.3 3.5
EBIAT 1.8 2.5 3.3 4.3 5.0 5.2
FCFF
EBIAT 1.8 2.5 3.3 4.3 5.0 5.2 EBIT(1-T) =
plus D&A 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.9
Minus NWC 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 0.0
Minus Capex 4 3.5 3.6 3.8 2.9
FCFF -0.6 0.8 1.8 2.4 5.2 52.303272
DCF -0.584909 0.6839247 1.3211874 1.6185041 3.2476217 32.476217
EV 38.762545
Debt 12
Equity Value 26.762545
Share price 45.826276
Scenario 1
EBIAT
EBIAT peer avg
EBITDA 18
EV/EBITDA 20
P/E Ev/18 = 20
Ev=18*20
360
EV/EBIAT 16.1
EV/1.8 = 16.1
EV 28.98
Debt 12
Equity Value 16980000
Share price 29.0753
P/E 13.5
P/2.23 = 13.5
P 30.105