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Statistics Lesson
An Introduction to Confidence Intervals using Adolescent Health
Data
By: Jay Schauer, AP Statistics Teacher, Wilsonville High School
This lesson is designed to introduce students to the concept of confidence intervals for sample means
and the reason for the sample size requirement when data is not normally distributed. The exercise uses
data from the “Let’s Get Healthy” health fairs conducted in 2010-2011 school year from nine middle
schools from eight school districts. Data on Body Mass Index (BMI) was collected from 876 females and
687 males ages 10-15 at these nine fairs. Information regarding adolescent BMI is valuable because it is a
strong indicator of both short-term and long-term health concerns. This data is organized so that students
can examine the distriubtion of BMI for each gender for these two “populations” which are both positively
skewed. The exercise is designed so that individual students take small (n=10) and large (n=35) random
samples from either the female or male population, generate confidence intervals for population means from
the samples, provide a class plot of the confidence intervals compared to the known population mean and
then compare the results of the two sample sizes in relation to the generated intervals containing the true
population mean for these skewed populations.
Big Understanding:
The reason we check assumptions before we proceed with inferential statistics such as confidence intervals
and hypothesis tests is that these assumptions are necessary for the validity of the statistics we generate.
Essential Questions:
Why is checking assumptions important for confidence intervals and hypothesis tests?
What are the assumptions for a one-sample t confidence interval?
What happens when the assumptions are violated – specifically, what happens when you use small samples
to generate confidence intervals from a population that is not normally distributed?
Grades:
Subjects:
Time Required:
55 min – If students only generated one n=10 sample and confidence interval and one n=35 sample and
confidence interval, then students and instructor combine intervals onto one graph followed by discussion.
Objectives
Materials:
Preparation:
Teacher should have data files available for students either electronically or hard copy. Teacher can
either provide data sheet included with the lesson or have students record data on their own paper or mark
their samples directly on hard copies of data sheets.
Activities/Procedures:
Step 1: Introducing the population of interest. Show or pass out Figure 1. and have students describe the
distribution of the BMI values for the graph that matches their gender. Students should at a minimum
discuss shape, center and spread.
It may also be valuable to discuss that the data collected was collected from 9 different Oregon middle
schools from eight different school districts which represent several different socioeconomic and cultural
areas of the state. It is by no means a census of the students from these schools as some students were
absent, did not have permission to participate, and many who did participate in the fair did not choose to
participate in the Body Composition station. The instructor may wish to discuss whether their may be a
statistical bias for or against a particular group of students because of this non-participation.
The instructor should emphasize that this does not represent an actual census of Oregon middle school
students, but that the very large sample can be used to simulate a known population that is large enough to
use for a sampling exercise.
Step 2: Introduce students to the random number generating function of their calculators and have them
generate a sample of ten random numbers from 1-876 for females or 1-687 for males. Remind them not to
use repeated numbers as we don’t want the same individual counter more than once.
On TI-83 or 84, the random number function is: MATH – PROB – RandInt(starting number, ending
number, desired sample)
Note: If your students have never used this function on the calculator before, you may wish to have
them generate a different list so they are not all starting in the same place. It is rather entertaining to have
these students do RandInt(1,437,12) and have them all come up with the same 12 numbers! I have them
enter the month of their birthday, year of their birth, and last 2 digits of their phone number to get them in
different places.
Step 3: Have students locate the BMI values for the ten randomly selected individuals and then enter those
values into L1 on their calculator.
Step 4: Introduce or review the assumptions necessary for generating confidence intervals from population
means (t-interval).
o Is the sample a simple random sample? In this case, YES.
o Are the samples independent? YES, just be sure students don’t repeat numbers.
o Is the population large relative to the sample? Is N>10n? YES, both females (N=876) and
males (N=687) are greater than 10(n) = 10*10 = 100.
o Is the sample large (n>30) or the population normally distributed? In what we are about to do
NO!!. The populations are not normally distributed and we are about to use samples of 10 –
we are going to do this so we can demonstrate why you SHOULD NOT do proceed from this
point.
Step 5: Have students generate a 95% confidence t-interval using the data they have entered in their L1.
Step 6: Have students then share their interval for their gender with the class. You can do with with a list
and or with a graphic. The recommended graphic would have one graph for males and one for females.
Student names are on the x-axis, Mean BMI is on the y-axis with a range of 12-42. For females a horizontal
line should be drawn at the population mean BMI (19.50) and a similar horizontal line for the male graph at
19.62. For visual demonstration purposes, show each students generated interval by plotting their lower and
upper bounds and connecting them.
This should give you a good visual of the distribution of intervals and how many contain the true
population values. If you have small classes, or a small gender representaion, you may wish to only use one
gender for the exercise or have students each generater mutiple intervals.
Use the graphics to demonstrate what happens when small samples are taken from non-normal
distributions. Results are likely to vary from class to class.
REPEAT STEPS 2-6 with a sample that does meet the remaining assumption by using n=35.
This should generate fewer intervals that do not contain the true population parameter (as well as
smaller intervals).
Culmination: Introduce or review interpreting confidence intervals and confidence level and the important
difference in how those interpretations differ.
Assessment/Reflection:
Assessment for understanding of this material should come in the form of an AP-Type Free Response
question using graphs and statistics and requiring students to check assumptions, generate a confidence
interval and interpret both the interval and the level of confidence.
This exercise can also be modified to introduce or reinforce understanding of the Central Limit Theorem by
generating more sample means and comparing the mean of those means to the population mean as well as
the standard deviation of the sample means compared to the population standard deviation divided by the
square root of the sample size.
Discussion of what the BMI values indicate could also be valuable to students and for interpreting the
population graphs. For this data set there is a complication in categorizing BMI because the data includes a
few 10 and 15 year olds with a large number of 12-14 year olds and the dividing lines for weight categories
vary with age. For a rough comparison, you could use the values for thirteen year olds:
This could lead to a discussion of whether this data suggests public health officials should be considered
about the weight and associated health of adolescents in Oregon.
Resources:
School adopted AP Statistics Textbook and associated sections on confidence intervals and cntral limit
theorem.
Standards:
This lesson meets part of the Inferential Statistics syllabus portion of the Advanced Placement Statistics
course.
Tinker Plots for St#1F16DB1.csv Options
Male
Female
12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42
BMI
Circle Icon
Figure 1. Tinkerplot of BMI data from Let’s Get Healthy Fairs for 2010-2011. Distributions for both
females (N=876) and males (N=687) are right skewed. Bar on x-axis represents medians (median BMI =
18.7 for both males and females) and triangles represent means (mean BMI = 19.50 for females, mean BMI
= 19.62 for males).
Female BMI data. This data represents all female students who participated in the Body Composition
station at the middle school Let’s Get Healthy Fairs in 2010-2011. Data has been randomly sorted.
Male BMI data. This data represents all male students who participated in the Body Composition station at
the middle school Let’s Get Healthy Fairs in 2010-2011. Data has been randomly sorted.
# MBMI # MBMI # MBMI # MBMI # MBMI # MBMI # MBMI # MBMI
1
23.1 46 15.9 91 18.5 136 14.8 181 19.5 226 21.7 271 21.4 316 17.9
2 16 47 15.2 92 19.7 137 16.8 182 20.2 227 19.9 272 17.5 317 16.2
3
16.1 48 17.8 93 15.1 138 22.7 183 18.1 228 19.8 273 17.4 318 20.8
4
17.2 49 16.8 94 20.3 139 16.7 184 16.7 229 16.7 274 18.9 319 20.6
5
17.8 50 17.3 95 21.9 140 16.6 185 22.7 230 18.5 275 17.1 320 18.8
6
20.5 51 18 96 18.8 141 21.5 186 16.9 231 17 276 22.4 321 17.8
7
17.4 52 16.1 97 18.4 142 18 187 14.8 232 17.2 277 23.4 322 16.8
8
18.6 53 16.6 98 17.9 143 21 188 17.7 233 19.1 278 16.6 323 14.7
9 19 54 16.7 99 14.4 144 13.8 189 19.4 234 19.1 279 18.6 324 16
10
23.2 55 16.8 100 16.3 145 15.1 190 22.5 235 18 280 17.6 325 21.9
11
22.7 56 21.7 101 17.8 146 20.3 191 17.4 236 18.1 281 19 326 15.9
12
19.9 57 20.7 102 17.9 147 22.1 192 19.9 237 19.9 282 21.5 327 15.7
13
23.5 58 17 103 20.1 148 18.8 193 20.6 238 15.7 283 18.9 328 23.2
14 18 59 21.9 104 17 149 17.9 194 17.5 239 16.4 284 16.6 329 14.9
15
18.8 60 16.5 105 18.3 150 18.6 195 21.7 240 21 285 20.7 330 16
16
18.1 61 17.5 106 18.2 151 20.7 196 18.6 241 14 286 19.2 331 17.1
17
16.8 62 17.9 107 16.6 152 22 197 17.8 242 18.9 287 16.2 332 21.5
18
20.7 63 20.3 108 18.1 153 17.1 198 19.4 243 20.1 288 18.2 333 21.7
19
16.9 64 17.3 109 15 154 18.8 199 18 244 19.1 289 20.6 334 18.4
20
18.8 65 19.8 110 18 155 20.1 200 18.5 245 15.9 290 22.6 335 20.4
21
20.7 66 16.7 111 22.6 156 21.4 201 17.4 246 19.3 291 21.1 336 14.5
22
17.4 67 15 112 15.9 157 17.4 202 15.1 247 23.5 292 15.5 337 16.8
23
18.5 68 19.7 113 18.8 158 21.5 203 17.7 248 19.5 293 19.4 338 17
24
16.7 69 17.4 114 21 159 16.8 204 20.9 249 19 294 14.1 339 21.2
25
16.5 70 19.8 115 15.9 160 19 205 17.6 250 22.9 295 21.3 340 22
26 15 71 16.8 116 20.6 161 22.8 206 23 251 17 296 18.5 341 18
27 15 72 14.8 117 19.9 162 19.5 207 20.2 252 15.8 297 16.1 342 19.9
28 19 73 14.2 118 16.8 163 18.3 208 18.7 253 21.1 298 13.9 343 23.2
29
15.8 74 17.2 119 14.9 164 16.8 209 19.5 254 19.3 299 16.2 344 19.3
30
16.8 75 16.6 120 18.1 165 18.7 210 20.5 255 20.7 300 19.8 345 21.6
31
20.9 76 16.4 121 18.7 166 22 211 18.8 256 17.4 301 18.3 346 22.8
32
22.7 77 16.1 122 14.7 167 19.3 212 17.2 257 19.5 302 17.9 347 20.5
33
17.9 78 23.5 123 16.2 168 22 213 23 258 19.4 303 22 348 17
34
23.4 79 14.7 124 16.3 169 17.6 214 17.2 259 17.5 304 15.1 349 18.5
35
19.2 80 16.7 125 15.5 170 22.6 215 17.8 260 15.2 305 21.5 350 23.1
36
17.9 81 15.6 126 21.7 171 14.9 216 14.1 261 18.4 306 20.3 351 19.2
37
20.7 82 19.1 127 17 172 19.1 217 19.9 262 18 307 22.6 352 14.2
38
16.1 83 18.2 128 17.7 173 20.1 218 18.6 263 21.8 308 21.2 353 22.4
39
16.9 84 18.4 129 17.2 174 19 219 12.9 264 17.1 309 18.1 354 18.7
40
16.4 85 15.1 130 17.7 175 16.6 220 20.1 265 19.9 310 16.5 355 19.9
41
22.3 86 21.3 131 16.1 176 18.9 221 18 266 17.5 311 20.8 356 19.9
42
18.4 87 17.2 132 14.4 177 17.6 222 18.2 267 18.4 312 16.3 357 20.9
43
20.2 88 16.8 133 15.6 178 17.9 223 21.4 268 16.5 313 15.7 358 20.4
44 15 89 15.7 134 16.8 179 14.9 224 19.1 269 19.7 314 18.4 359 18.1
45
16.9 90 23 135 18.5 180 16.5 225 17.6 270 17.1 315 15.1 360 15
# MBMI # MBMI # MBMI # MBMI # MBMI # MBMI # MBMI # MBMI
361 16.4 406 18.3 451 19.8 496 20.3 541 18.6 586 18.5 631 16.4 676 20.8
362 20.4 407 17.5 452 19.7 497 18.2 542 18.5 587 17.9 632 18.6 677 17.4
363 15.8 408 16.7 453 16 498 15.5 543 22.9 588 18.7 633 16.7 678 16.9
364 16.5 409 20.2 454 20.3 499 17.9 544 19.9 589 19.9 634 14.9 679 18
365 18.1 410 21 455 18.3 500 17.1 545 16.8 590 22 635 13 680 20.1
366 17.3 411 22 456 18.9 501 17.4 546 21.9 591 23.1 636 19.2 681 14.4
367 15.3 412 20 457 20.7 502 22.5 547 21.7 592 21 637 17.3 682 18.3
368 17.4 413 17.6 458 17.5 503 16.1 548 16.8 593 21.3 638 18.6 683 17.3
369 17.7 414 17.2 459 14.5 504 18.5 549 17.2 594 19.9 639 20.2 684 15.7
370 22.8 415 19.3 460 22 505 19.7 550 18.3 595 17.6 640 21.5 685 16.3
371 15.6 416 17.9 461 21.6 506 19 551 17.9 596 18 641 16.5 686 16.6
372 18.3 417 18.6 462 20 507 21.5 552 17.4 597 17.5 642 19.8 687 23
373 17.2 418 18.2 463 16.9 508 20.4 553 19.9 598 17.1 643 20.1
374 23.4 419 16.1 464 22.8 509 18 554 15.4 599 20.4 644 16
375 18.4 420 19.1 465 16.5 510 15.3 555 17.9 600 20.4 645 22.7
376 20 421 20.1 466 17.1 511 20.7 556 16.6 601 14.7 646 17.7
377 18.2 422 19 467 19.7 512 19 557 16.1 602 16.6 647 18.8
378 21.5 423 14.5 468 16.7 513 16.4 558 18.7 603 22.4 648 16.5
379 17.5 424 17.3 469 17.4 514 20.7 559 16.2 604 16.4 649 22.9
380 22.6 425 19.8 470 19.3 515 17.2 560 15.3 605 19.6 650 18.2
381 16.9 426 22.1 471 15.5 516 14.6 561 20 606 17.9 651 15.1
382 15.3 427 15.6 472 17.5 517 17.4 562 17.3 607 18.7 652 18.4
383 22.7 428 17.1 473 16.1 518 18 563 20.2 608 16.2 653 15.9
384 20.2 429 14.9 474 21.3 519 22.4 564 17.9 609 19.8 654 16.1
385 16.1 430 17 475 16.9 520 22 565 18.9 610 18.2 655 17.7
386 17.3 431 17 476 19.6 521 17.2 566 17.9 611 18.2 656 18.3
387 21.3 432 19 477 18 522 16.2 567 15.4 612 23.5 657 22.3
388 20.1 433 22.9 478 21.2 523 18.3 568 18.7 613 16.5 658 22.5
389 17.4 434 16.4 479 15.5 524 17.8 569 17.7 614 17.2 659 20.7
390 20.4 435 19.6 480 19.7 525 17.5 570 19.6 615 17.6 660 16.1
391 17.5 436 17.9 481 17 526 18.8 571 19.1 616 20.3 661 19.1
392 21 437 20 482 20.1 527 18.5 572 18.4 617 17.1 662 18.4
393 16.4 438 18.6 483 15.2 528 19.5 573 19.3 618 17.2 663 16.8
394 18.8 439 15.1 484 17.8 529 22.2 574 21.1 619 15.2 664 20.9
395 17.1 440 17.4 485 17.1 530 17.6 575 16.9 620 15.6 665 20.1
396 15.8 441 23.4 486 17.5 531 22.8 576 21 621 18.4 666 18.3
397 18 442 15.8 487 15.8 532 22.8 577 16.1 622 16.4 667 18.3
398 16.9 443 20.9 488 18.3 533 18.3 578 17.3 623 15.1 668 17.1
399 20.6 444 18.9 489 17.9 534 18.4 579 15.7 624 22.3 669 19.2
400 16 445 15.3 490 19.3 535 16.1 580 21 625 20.9 670 18.8
401 18 446 14.9 491 22.4 536 16.2 581 22.3 626 16.6 671 22.3
402 22.9 447 21.5 492 19.2 537 20 582 19.2 627 16.1 672 19.3
403 12.7 448 21.8 493 16.8 538 23 583 20.2 628 19.5 673 17.2
404 19.2 449 18.6 494 22.5 539 17.4 584 23.2 629 19.4 674 16.5
405 15.4 450 18.3 495 15.8 540 19.5 585 19.1 630 21.6 675 16