TSUNAMI DAMAGE ESTIMATION IN MANTA,

ECUADOR USING FRAGILITY FUNCTIONS

Sharl Noboa Supervisor: Shunichi Koshimura

MEE15621

ABSTRACT

We performed a parametric study using linear and non linear numerical simulations to find the possible
worst tsunami scenario that could affect the central coasts of Ecuador. From the calculation of seafloor
deformation and the results of maximal tsunami heights at coastal points, we obtained that earthquakes
of Magnitude greater than Mw 8.0 caused the maximal values. Then we used events of Magnitude Mw
8.8 as seismic sources to run non linear simulations. These simulations got values of inundation depth,
necessary for the estimation of tsunami building damage and casualties using fragility functions. We
compared the inundation area of the three scenarios that got the maximal values of inundation depth and
then we applied the fragility functions of Banda Aceh to each scenario. The worst scenario that caused
more damage in buildings and casualties corresponds to an earthquake of Mw 8.8, with its SW edge
fault, was settled at 81.26° W longitude and 0.59° S latitude with a focal depth of 14 km. The assumed
slip was 10 meters for a rupture of 400 km in length and 160 km in width. The strike was parallel to
the Nazca trench, 23°; the characteristic dip was 16° and the rake was 90°. This hypothetical event
generated waves up to 5 meters high at the coast of Manta and caused an inundation extension of 3.05
km2 in the coastal sectors of Manta. All the models represent the great threat of inundation for the
beautiful beaches of Manta. We obtained that in the coastal sectors, 13% of the population would be
killed and 24.42% of houses would be damaged if an earthquake of Mw 8.8 generates a tsunami.

Keywords: Ecuador, Tsunami, Fragility function, Damage estimation

1. INTRODUCTION

Historically, in the Ecuadorian margin, there occurred great earthquakes with magnitudes between Mw
7.5 and Mw 8.8. These sizes of events can generate tsunamis, nevertheless, in the central coasts of
Ecuador, there is a lack of tsunami hazard assessments. In Manabi Province there are situated populated
towns with more than 1,369,780 inhabitants. The last earthquake on April 16, 2016 of Magnitude 7.8 in
the Central region killed 663 persons, 6274 injured, and many collapsed buildings in this central
province. This event showed the vulnerability and the necessity of develop tsunami hazard assessments.
Fragility functions are methods to estimate building damage and death ratio caused by tsunamis. We
used this method to estimate probably tsunami damage in Manta City, the first tourist, maritime and
fishing port of Ecuador, where strategic infrastructures, seafood industries, airport are located in coastal
sectors. We conducted two kinds of simulations, linear and nonlinear simulations using the TUNAMI-
N2 code for near field tsunamis with the purpose of find the worst scenario and we used as seismic
sources events of magnitude Mw 7.5 to 8.8. The events that generate highest inundation depths were
those corresponding to an earthquake of Mw 8.8. Inundation depth was the tsunami parameter that we
used to calculate building damage and death ratio using fragility functions.

2. DATA


Secretariat of Risk Management, Guayaquil, Ecuador.

Professor, Ph.D. University of Tohoku, Sendai, Japan.

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2.1. Bathymetry and topography data
We used the information from the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO), local nautical
charts (digitized and non digitized data) and ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model. Table 1 shows
the extension and resolution of each nested grid. All regions R1, R2 and R3 use GEBCO data. R1 has
the dimensions to contain the shoreline of Ecuador and the rupture zones. Intermediate R2 and R3
permit to save computational time and the R4 corresponds to the target area where we integrated
ASTERGDEM with local bathymetry with a resolution of 30m. Figure 1 presents the nested grids.

Table 1. Extension and resolution of four nested grids.

Domains Long. Lat. Resolution

(Dec. degree) (Dec. degree) (grid size)
Min Max Min Max m

Nested R1 -82.91 -76.86 -3.96 -2.86 810

Nested R2 -81.11 -80.49 -1.08 -0.42 270

Nested R3 -80.81 -80.59 -1.03 -0.81 90

Nested R4 -80.76 -80.62 -0.98 -0.87 30

Figure 1. Limits and localization of the nested

grid system used in numerical simulation.

2.2. Seismic source data

To have the initial input for modeling the tsunami we need rupture dimensions of our seismic sources.
We collected information from seismicity studies in the region, local historical events (Figure 2) and
from different databases, local database USGS Catalog and the CMT Harvard Catalog (Figure 3) to have
characteristics depths of earthquakes and their respective focal mechanisms. This kind of information
gave us the frequency distribution of the strike, dip, rake angles and depth. For calculate the rupture
dimensions we used scaling laws of Papazachos et al. (2004) and Blaser et al. (2010).

Figure 2. Principal earthquakes and Figure 3. Events of 4< Mw < 10 from CMT and USGS Catalog.
segmentation of Ecuadorian Margin The shallow seismicity along the margin is characterized with
proposed by Gailler et al.(2007). thrust focal mechanisms in the east side of the trench.

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 3. THEORY AND METHODOLOGY

3.1. Tsunami Numerical Simulation

For the linear and non-linear simulations, we used the TUNAMI-N2 CODE using different sources
and fault parameters to get the worst scenario.

3.2. Dislocation models and fault parameters

Although the coseismic ruptures are complex and depends on the internal structure of the earth, for the
case of simulating tsunami we consider a simple and homogeneous source. The algorithm by Okada
(1985) is used to calculate the initial condition of deformation of the seafloor and we assume that the
deformation of the sea bottom generates the same displacement of the water above.

Table 2. Example of dislocation models for events Mw 8.8. Length and Width were calculated with
Papazachos et al. (2004).
Long. Lat. Slip Length Width Strike Dip Rake Depth Mw Changing locations of
(m) (km) (km) (°) (°) (°) (km) top edge of the fault, or
-81.26 -0.59 10 400 160 23 16 118 20 8.8 fault parameters we did
-81.26 -0.59 10 400 160 23 16 118 15 8.8 many simulations to see
-81.26 -0.59 10 400 160 23 16 118 10 8.8 the initial deformations
-81.26 -0.59 10 400 160 23 16 118 5 8.8 and how this feature
-81.26 -0.59 10 400 160 23 30 118 20 8.8 induced the maximum
-81.26 -0.59 10 400 160 23 30 118 15 8.8 tsunami heights arriving
-81.26 -0.59 10 400 160 23 30 118 10 8.8 at continental coasts.
-81.26 -0.59 10 400 160 23 30 118 5 8.8 Table 2 shows some
dislocation models.

3.3. Tsunami Damage Estimation with Fragility Functions

Koshimura et al. (2009a) suggest that fragility functions can be a statistical approach to estimate the
tsunami damage on structures and fatalities due to the struck of a tsunami.
Supassri et al. (2012), used this fragility curves, as described in the equation 1. P is the
cumulative probability of occurrence of damage, ϕ is an exponential function of the standardized normal
distribution, x is the feature of tsunami, μ and σ are the mean and the standard deviation of x, respectively.
𝑥−µ ( 1)
𝑃𝐷 (𝑥) = ф [ ]
𝜎
With the numerical modeling we obtained the features of tsunamis like inundation depth, velocity, etc.

4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

4.1. Tsunami Numerical Simulation

The seismic sources were along Nazca Trench and in the proximity of Manta city. The historical event
of 1906 of estimated magnitude of Mw 8.8 (Kanamori and McNally, 1982) and long rupture of
approximately 400-500 km affected from Manta to Buenaventura (Kelleher, 1972). This historical event
caused tsunami waves and we used this geometry fault plane with different focal depths, locations and
fault parameters to search our worst scenario.

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We also used fault parameters from event 1942 obtained in previous
study (Swenson and Beck, 1996) to construct hypothetical sources,
due to its proximity of the target area. These two historical events
occurred at the north of our zone of interest and we constrained the
rupture area of the scenario earthquake to the SW boundary of the
rupture of event 1906, because to the south of this rupture there were
reported events of less magnitude.
We consider smaller fault ruptures in the south and set seismic
events related with the interseismic coupling of La Plata Island (at
the south west of the coast of Manta City). These events were
references to choose tsunami sources for nonlinear numerical
simulations. The effects of shoaling and friction are reflected in the
inundation results. We searched a scenario that would cause the
worst inundation because this result is a hydrodynamic feature of
tsunami necessary to apply with fragility functions in order to
estimate tsunami damage in our target area.
Figure 4. Fault geometries of
used Seismic sources.

Towns located in the North of

Manta region probably would be
more affected by tsunamis due to
the arrival of higher waves than
Manta city.
From the results, we
can expect more damage from
tsunamis generated by events
greater than Mw 8.0.
Then the nonlinear
simulations were done with
seismic sources related with great
dislocations and long rupture
lengths corresponding to events of
Mw 8.8.

Figure 5. Comparison of Arrival Tsunami Heigths at coastal

points at North and South of Manta City (target area).

4.2. Estimation of Damage with Fragility Functions

From nonlinear simulations we obtained the following results:

Table 3. Description of the seismic source model and outputs of numerical simulations.

Scenario Longitude Latitude Depth Slip Strike Rake Dip Max. Inund Max.Height
(km) (m) depth (m) (m)
Case1 81.26°W 0.59°S 20 10 23 118 16 4.22 4.308
Case2 81.26°W 0.59°S 14 10 23 90 16 4.651 5.09
Case3 81.26°W 0.59°S 5 10 23 90 30 3.629 4.69

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 In figure 6 we show
inundation depth
values for 10
characteristic cases.
With these values we
compared scenarios
and had the worst to
be used in the
estimation of the
probability of damage
of building and
casualties with
Fragility Functions.

Figure 6. Comparison of Maximum values of inundation depth, as results from

nonlinear simulations for ten cases.

After superposing the grid layer of

maximal inundation depth corresponding
to case 2 over the Map of Manta City
(Figure 7) we obtained that 12.42% of the
population of 21 coastal sectors of Manta
would be in risk of death if a hypothetical
event with the same geometry of historical
1906 occur. Figure 8 shows that the
population between 5-34 years would be
the most affected by the worst scenario.
Also, 44.06% of the buildings are made of
brick and concrete. More than 50% of the
buildings could collapse due to the struck
of tsunami in case of the worst scenario.

Figure 7. Pink polygons represent the most affected sectors

as estimated from fragility functions.

Figure 8. Population and type of building walls of the most affected sectors.

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 5. CONCLUSIONS

We estimated the tsunami hazard along Manta coasts and we found the worst scenario for tsunami, using
numerical simulations and finally, we applied the tsunami fragility functions to estimate the tsunami
damage on buildings and death ratio. We tried 51 seismic sources (events of magnitude 7.5 to 8.8) as
initial conditions for the linear simulations. Finally, we found 3 worst events after non linear simulations.
The worst event was the tsunami generated by an earthquake of Mw 8.8 which caused an inundation
depth value of 4.65 meters that corresponds to 3.05 km2 of inundation of coastal sectors of Manta City.
Of a total of 8,800 persons inhabited in the exposed coastal sectors, 1,093 persons (13 % of
the total population of Manta) would be killed by tsunami in the case of an earthquake of Mw 8.8. Of
a total of 2,238 houses, 542 would be damaged, which is equivalent to 24.21%. In terms of population
and buildings, in the affected sectors the population between 5- 34 years would be the most affected by
the worst scenario of inundation and only 44.06% of the buildings are made of brick and concrete. That
means that the level of damage for more than 50% of the buildings could increase and could not resist
the struck of tsunami in case of the worst scenario.
As we saw in the inundation map, the extension of the inundation is limited and it may consider
that the estimated damage building and casualties should be overestimated, because our estimation are
based only on inundation depth as a result of nonlinear simulations.

6. RECOMMENDATION

About the construction of computational domains, especially fourth domain of the target area. We
have limited access to finer bathymetry and we must work with the available data that have a lack of
information in some sites for which we must digitize from nautical charts. Although the resolution of
the data was different, we interpolated theses values and we can say that the fourth domain does not
have the same level of detail in all region.
According to above reasons, we recommend:
i. Use of the results only as reference of estimation of damage due to a tsunami.
ii. Motivate and improve the bathymetry studies.
iii. Use of satellite images to have information about buildings distribution.
iv. Field surveys to obtain a detail database of the infrastructure of buildings.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Shunichi KOSHIMURA, Erick MAS and Bruno
ADRIANO from the Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics for Disaster Management of
Tohoku University, and to Yushiro FUJII and Bunichiro SHIBAZAKI of IISEE/BRI, for their
continuous support, valuable suggestion and instruction during my study.

REFERENCES

Kanamori, H., McNally, K., 1982, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol 72, No. 4,
1241 – 1253.
Kelleher, J.,1972, J. of Geophysics Res., 77, 2087-2103.
Koshimura, S., Namegaya, Y., Yanagisawa, H., 2009a, Journal of Disaster Research, Vol. 4, No. 6,
479 – 488.
Koshimura, S., Oie, T.,Yanagisawa, H. Imamura F., 2009b, Coastal Engineering Journal, Vol. 51, No.
3, 243 – 273.
Mas, E., Koshimura, S., Suppasri, A., Matsuoka, M., Matsuyama, M., Yoshii, T., Jimenez, C.,
Yamazaki, F., Imamura, F., 2012, Natural Hazards Earth System Sciences, 12, 2689 – 2697.