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Covid19 and Conflict in Myanmar: No Truce for the

Rohingya
30 May 2020

K. YHOME

As conflict escalates in western Myanmar amid the rise of coronavirus cases in the country, there
is growing concern of a deepening humanitarian crisis. As of May 26, Myanmar has recorded 206
confirmed COVID-19 cases and 6 deaths. Clashes between the Myanmar military and the Arakan
Army (AA), an armed group seeking greater autonomy for ethnic Rohingya people, have displaced
hundred thousand people since conflicts started over a year ago.

Recent spike in conflicts since late March have left 32 deaths, 71 injuries and forced more people
to flee their homes. Last month, former UN Special Rapporteur on Myanmar Yanghee Lee accused
the Myanmar army of new atrocities and called for investigation into “war crimes and crimes
against humanity” in the country’s Rakhine and Chin states. Developments in the past month
suggest that the situation in conflict-affected areas may further deteriorate and put vulnerable
people at risk during the pandemic.

On May 10, the Myanmar military announced a unilateral “ceasefire” with the objective it claimed
was to help contain and prevent the spread of the global pandemic. However, the ceasefire left
out Rakhine state and Paletwa township of Chin state, where clashes between the AA and the
Myanmar military have been intensifying in recent weeks. Earlier in March, the Myanmar
government designated the AA as a terrorist group.

The Myanmar military’s decision to keep Rakhine and Chin states out of the ceasefire seems to be
driven by its calculation that the pandemic provides an opportunity for it to focus on the AA, as the
ceasefire allow it to keep the peace with other ethnic armed organizations in different parts of
the country and even explore ways to work together in the fight against the pandemic.

A recent reshuffle of the Myanmar military’s top brass, a report suggests, was primarily aimed at
concentrating on the Rakhine conflict. Citing “insiders”, the report claims that “moderate” officers
have been replaced in key positions with direct implications on the Rakhine conflict. The visit of
Myanmar commander-in-chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing to Shan state and his meetings with
leaders of ethnic armed groups such as the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and National Democratic
Alliance Army (NDAA) are also believed to have links with the development in Rakhine state.

Against this backdrop, UN Security Council closed-door meeting on the situation in Rakhine state
and UNSC European member-states’ joint statement expressing concern over the escalation of
conflict in Rakhine and Chin states during the coronavirus pandemic has brought a much-needed
focus on the issue. However, as in the past, the UN body is unlikely to affect change inside
Myanmar. That China reportedly refused to endorse the UNSC European member-states’
document is no surprise.

Having said that, the critical issues raised by the UNSC European member-states could be a starting
point for the international community, regional bodies and governments including Myanmar’s
partners and friends to urge and nudge Naypyidaw towards meeting some of these goals during
the pandemic.

The most critical issue is “an immediate, comprehensive and nationwide ceasefire” that would
include Rakhine and Chin states at the time of the global pandemic crisis. The other issue is the
need to ensure “rapid, safe and unhindered access” for humanitarian workers who have been
providing assistance to the displaced people and others in the conflict zone. In April a World Health
Organization (WHO) employee was shot dead while transporting COVID-19 surveillance samples
from Sittwe, the capital city Rakhine, to Yangon.

The Myanmar government has formed an investigative committee to probe the shooting of the
WHO worker. However, rights activists are apprehensive of the process delivering an impartial
investigation. Since January, the Myanmar authorities have imposed new restrictions for
humanitarian workers to access several townships in Rakhine state. International NGOs working in
Rakhine state have raised concern on the continued conflict that adversely impact the already
precarious humanitarian situation.

Undoubtedly, the issues identified by UNSC European members-states need urgent attention. The
challenge is how to take the ideas forward and making them work on the ground. A divided UNSC
has long been and remains a non-starter in the case of Myanmar. At the same time, to expect the
UNSC European member-states to be able to act on these issues also is doubtful in the context of
Myanmar’s deteriorating relations with the West over the Rohingya issue in recent years.

Although key regional players have not been very successful with their approach to nudge
Myanmar to bring about change in the past, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and
its member-states, India and Japan have maintained cordial relations with Naypyidaw.

ASEAN as a regional institution may have its limitations in raising the issues made by UNSC
European member-states owing to geographical and geopolitical factors that link Myanmar to
ASEAN. The need to respect regional concerns and to show regional solidary may make Naypyidaw
to listen to ASEAN with it is coordinating in fighting the global pandemic. Some of the ASEAN-
Myanmar dynamics are at play in Myanmar’s ties with India and Japan.

The global pandemic has been redefining the interactions between global, regional and local
dynamics with regional actors playing key roles in the international aid system. Myanmar’s Rakhine
conflict may provide an opportunity to channelize international concerns through regional actors
to deal with ethnopolitical conflicts where the regional plays the role of a bridge between in the
global and the local.

This commentary originally appeared in ISPI.

The views expressed above belong to the author(s).

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