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CH 10 PDF
CH 10 PDF
Credit Analysis
REVIEW
This chapter focuses on credit analysis. It is separated into two major sections: liquidity
analysis and solvency analysis. Liquidity refers to the availability of resources to meet short-
term cash requirements. A company's short-term liquidity risk is affected by the timing of
cash inflows and outflows along with its prospects for future performance. Our analysis of
liquidity is aimed at companies' operating activities, their ability to generate profits from the
sale of goods and services, and working capital requirements and measures. This chapter
describes several financial statement analysis tools to assess short-term liquidity risk for a
company. We begin with a discussion of the importance of liquidity and its link to working
capital. We explain and interpret useful ratios of both working capital and a company's
operating cycle for assessing liquidity. We also discuss potential adjustments to these
analysis tools and the underlying financial statement numbers. What-if analysis of changes
in a company's conditions or strategies concludes this section.
The second part of this chapter considers solvency analysis. Solvency is an important factor
in our analysis of a company's financial statements. Solvency refers to a company's long-
run financial viability and its ability to cover long-term obligations. All business activities of
a company—financing, investing, and operating—affect a company's solvency. One of the
most important components of solvency analysis is the composition of a company's capital
structure. Capital structure refers to a company's sources of financing and its economic
attributes. This chapter describes capital structure and explains its importance to solvency
analysis. Since solvency depends on success in operating activities, the chapter examines
earnings and its ability to cover important and necessary company expenditures.
Specifically, this chapter describes various tools of solvency analysis, including leverage
measures, analytical accounting adjustments, capital structure analysis, and earnings-
coverage measures. We demonstrate these analysis tools with data from financial
statements. We also discuss the relation between risk and return inherent in a company's
capital structure, and its implications for financial statement analysis.
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OUTLINE
Section 1: Liquidity
• Liquidity and Working Capital
Current Assets and Liabilities
Working Capital Measure of Liquidity
Current Ratio Measure of Liquidity
Using the Current Ratio for Analysis
Cash-Based Ratio Measures of Liquidity
• Operating Activity Analysis of Liquidity
Accounts Receivable Liquidity Measures
Inventory Turnover Measures
Liquidity of Current Liabilities
• Additional Liquidity Measures
Current Assets Composition
Acid-Test (Quick) Ratio
Cash Flow Measures
Financial Flexibility
Management's Discussion and Analysis
• What-If Analysis
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• Earnings Coverage
Relation of Earnings to Fixed Charges
Times Interest Earned Analysis
Relation of Cash Flow to Fixed Charges
Earnings Coverage of Preferred Dividends
Interpreting Earnings Coverage Measures
• Capital Structure Risk and Return
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ANALYSIS OBJECTIVES
• Analyze operating cycle and turnover measures of liquidity and their interpretation.
• Explain financial leverage and its implications for company performance and
analysis.
• Describe capital structure risk and return and its relevance to financial statement
analysis.
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QUESTIONS
1. Liquidity is an indicator of an entity's ability to meet its current obligations. An entity in a
weak short-term liquidity position will have difficulty in meeting short-term obligations.
This has implications for any current and potential stakeholders of a company. For
example, lack of liquidity would affect users’ analysis of financial statements in the
following ways:
Equity investor: In this case, the company likely is unable to avail itself of favorable
discounts and to take advantage of profitable business opportunities. It could even mean
loss of control and eventual partial or total loss of capital investment.
Creditors: In this case, delay in collection of interest and principal due would be
expected and there is a possibility of the partial or total loss of the amounts due them.
2. A major limitation in using working capital (in dollars) as an analysis measure is its
failure to meaningfully relate it to other measure for interpretive purposes. That is,
working capital is much more meaningful when related to other amounts, such as current
liabilities or total assets. In addition, the importance attached to working capital by
various users provides a strong incentive for an entity (especially the ones in a weak
financial position) to stretch the definition of its components. For example, some
managers may “expand” the definition of what constitutes a current asset and a current
liability to better present their current position in the most favorable light. Moreover,
there are several opportunities for managers to stretch these definitions. For this reason,
the analyst must use judgment in evaluating management’s classification of items
included in working capital—and apply adjustments when necessary.
4. Installment receivables derived from sales in the regular course of business are deemed
to be collectible within the operating cycle of a company. Therefore, such installment
receivables are to be included in current assets.
5. Inventories are not always reported as current assets. Specifically, inventory amounts in
excess of current requirements should be excluded from current assets. Current
requirements include quantities to be used within one-year or the normal operating
cycle, whichever period is longer. Business at times builds up its inventory in excess of
current requirement to hedge against an increase in price or in anticipation of a strike.
Such excess inventories beyond the requirements of one year should be classified as
noncurrent.
6. Prepaid expenses represent advance payments for services and supplies that would
otherwise require the current outlay of funds during the succeeding one-year or a longer
operating cycle.
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7. Banks usually reserve the right not to renew the whole or part of a loan at their option
when they sign a revolving loan agreement. The fact that a bank agrees informally to
renew short-term notes does not make them noncurrent. The possibility that the
company under analysis included such notes under long-term liabilities should be
carefully assessed (and potentially reclassified if our analysis suggests otherwise).
8. Some of these industry characteristics, such as the absence of any distinction between
current and noncurrent on the balance sheet in the real estate industry, can indeed
require special treatment. However, even in such cases, analysts should be careful to
consider whether these "special" characteristics change the relation existing between
current obligations and the liquid funds available (or reasonably expected to become
available) to meet them. Our analysis should adjust the classifications of any items not
meeting our assessment of the current and noncurrent criteria.
9. Identical working capital does not imply identical liquidity. The absolute amount of
working capital has significance only when related to other variables such as sales, total
assets, etc. The absolute amount only has, at best, a limited value for intercompany
comparisons. A better gauge of liquidity when focusing on working capital is to relate its
amount to either or both of current assets and current liabilities (or sales, assets, etc.).
10. The current ratio is the ratio of current assets to current liabilities. It is a static measure
of resources available at a given point in time to meet current obligations. The reasons
for its widespread use include:
• It measures the degree to which current assets cover current liabilities.
• It measures the margin of safety available to allow for possible shrinkage in the value
of current assets.
• It measures the margin of safety available to meet the uncertainties and the random
shocks to which the flows of funds in a company are subject.
11. Cash inflows and cash outflows are not perfectly predictable. For example, in the case of
a business downturn, sales can decline more rapidly than do outlays for purchases and
expenses. The amount of cash held is in the nature of a precautionary reserve, which is
intended to take care of short-term surprises in cash inflows and outflows.
12. There is a relation between inventories and sales. Specifically, as sales increase
(decrease), the inventory level typically increases (decreases). However, inventories are
a direct function of sales only in rare cases. Methods of inventory management exist,
and experience suggests that inventory increments vary not in proportion to demand
(sales) but rather with measure approximating the square root of demand.
13. Management’s major objectives in determining the amounts invested in receivables and
inventories include the promotion of sales, improved profitability, and the efficient
utilization of assets.
14. The current ratio is a static measure. The value of the current ratio as a measure of
liquidity is limited for the following reasons:
• Future liquidity depends on prospective cash flows and the current ratio alone does
not indicate what these future cash flows will be.
• There is no direct or established relationship between balances of working capital
items and the pattern which future cash flows are likely to assume.
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• Managerial policies directed at optimizing the levels of receivables and inventories are
oriented primarily toward the efficient and profitable utilization of assets and only
secondarily at liquidity considerations.
15. The limitations to which the current ratio is subject should be recognized and its use
should be restricted to the type of analytical task it is capable of serving. Specifically, the
current ratio can help assess the adequacy of current assets to discharge current
liabilities. This implies that any excess (called working capital) is a liquid surplus
available to meet imbalances in the flow of funds, shrinkage in value, and other
contingencies.
16. Cash-based ratios of liquidity typically refer to the ratio of cash (including cash
equivalents) to total current assets or to total current liabilities. The choice of deflator
depends on the purposes of analysis. (i) The higher the ratio of cash to total current
assets the more liquid the current asset group is. This means that this portion of the total
current assets is subject only to a minimal danger of loss in value in case of liquidation
and that there is practically no waiting period for conversion of these assets into usable
cash. (ii) The ratio of cash to total current liabilities measures how much cash and cash
equivalents are available to immediately pay current obligations. This is a severe test
that ignores the revolving nature of current liabilities. It supplements the cash ratio to
total current assets in that it measures cash availability from a somewhat different point
of view.
17. An important measure of the quality of current assets such as receivables and
inventories is their turnover. The faster the turnover—collections in case of receivables
and sales in case of inventories—the smaller the likelihood of loss on ultimate realization
of these assets.
18. The average accounts receivable turnover measures in effect the speed of their
collection during the period. The higher the turnover figure, the faster the collections are,
on average.
19. The collection period (or days' sales in accounts receivable) measures the number of
days' sales uncollected. It can be compared to a company's credit terms to evaluate the
quality of its collection activities.
20. Either one or all of the following are possible reasons for an increase in the collection
period:
• A relatively poorer collection job.
• Difficulty in obtaining prompt payment for various reasons from customers in spite of
diligent collection efforts.
• Customers in financial difficulty, which in turn may imply a poor job by the credit
department.
• Change of credit policies or sales terms in a desire to increase sales.
• Excessive delinquency of one or a few substantial customers.
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21. (a) If the inventory level is inadequate, the sales volume may decline to below the level of
sales otherwise attainable. A loss of potential customers can also occur. (b) Excessive
inventories, however, expose the company to expenses such as storage costs,
insurance, and taxes as well as to risks of loss of value through obsolescence and
physical deterioration. Excessive inventories also tie up funds that can be used more
profitably elsewhere.
22. The LIFO method of inventory valuation in times of increasing costs can render both the
inventory turnover ratio as well as the current ratio practically meaningless. However,
there is information regarding the LIFO reserve that is reported in financial statements.
Use of the LIFO reserve enables the analyst to adjust an unrealistically low LIFO
inventory value to a more meaningful inventory amount. Still, in intercompany
comparative analysis, even if two companies use LIFO cost methods for their inventory
valuations, the ratios based on such inventory figures may not be comparable because
their respective LIFO inventory pools (bases) may have been acquired in years of
significantly different price levels.
23. The composition of current liabilities is important because not all current liabilities
represent equally urgent and forceful calls for payment. Some claims, such as for taxes
and wages, must be paid promptly regardless of current financial difficulties. Others,
such as trade bills and loans, usually do not represent equally urgent calls for payment.
24. Changes in the current ratio over time do not automatically imply changes in liquidity or
operating results. In a prosperous year, growing liabilities for taxes can result in a
lowering of the current ratio. Moreover, in times of business expansion, working capital
requirements can increase with a resulting contraction of the current ratio—so-called
"prosperity squeeze." Conversely, during a business contraction, current liabilities may
be paid off while there is a concurrent (involuntary) accumulation of inventories and
uncollected receivables causing the ratio to rise. Finally, advances in inventory practices
(such as just-in-time) can lower the current ratio.
25. "Window dressing" refers to the adjustment of year-end account balances of current
assets and liabilities to show a more favorable current ratio than is otherwise warranted.
This can be accomplished, for example, by temporarily stepping up the efforts for
collection, by temporarily recalling advances and loans to officers, and by reducing
inventory to below the normal level and use the proceeds from these steps to pay off
current liabilities. The analyst should go beyond year-end reported amounts and try to
obtain as many interim readings of the current ratio as possible. Even if the year-end
current ratio is very strong, interim ratios may reveal that the company is dangerously
close to insolvency. More generally, our analysis must always be aware of the possibility
of window dressing of both current and noncurrent accounts.
26. The rule of thumb regarding the current ratio is 2:1 — a value below that level suggests
serious liquidity risk. Also, the rule of thumb suggests that the higher the current ratio be
above the 2:1 level, the better. The following points, however, should be kept in mind so
as not to expose our analysis to undue risks of errors in inferences:
• A current ratio much higher than 2 to 1, while implying a superior coverage of current
liabilities, can signal a wasteful accumulation of liquid resources.
• It is the quality of the current assets and the nature of the current liabilities that are
more significant in interpreting the current ratio—not simply the level itself.
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• The need of a company for working capital varies with industry conditions as well as
with the length of its own net trade cycle.
27. In an assessment of the overall liquidity of a company’s current assets, the trend of sales
is an important factor. Since it takes sales to convert inventory into receivables and/or
cash, an uptrend in sales indicates that the conversion of inventories into more liquid
assets will be easier to achieve than when sales remain constant. Declining sales, on the
other hand, will retard the conversion of inventories into cash and, consequently, impair
a company’s liquidity.
28. In addition to the tools of analysis of short-term liquidity that lend themselves to
quantification, there are important qualitative considerations that bear on short-term
liquidity. These can be usefully characterized as depending on the financial flexibility of
a company. Financial flexibility is the ability of a company to take steps to counter
unexpected interruptions in the flow of funds. This refers to the ability to borrow from a
variety of sources, to raise equity capital, to sell and redeploy assets, and to adjust the
level and direction of operations to meet changing circumstances. The capacity to
borrow depends on numerous factors and is subject to rapid change. It depends on
profitability, stability, relative size, industry position, asset composition and capital
structure. It will depend, moreover, on such external factors as credit market conditions
and trends. The capacity to borrow is important as a source of funds in a time of need
and is also important when a company must roll over its short-term debt. Prearranged
financing or open lines of credit are more reliable sources of funds in time of need than
is potential financing. Other factors which bear on the assessment of the financial
flexibility of a company are the ratings of its commercial paper, bonds and preferred
stock, restrictions on the sale of its assets, the degree of discretion with its expenses as
well as the ability to respond quickly to changing conditions such as strikes, shrinking
demand, and cessation of supply sources.
The SEC requires a "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and
Results of Operations" (MD&A). This requirement includes a discussion of liquidity
factors—including known trends, demands, commitments or uncertainties likely to have
a material impact on the company's ability to generate adequate amounts of cash. If a
material deficiency in liquidity is identified, management must discuss the course of
action it has taken or proposes to take to remedy the deficiency. In addition, internal and
external sources of liquidity as well as any material unused sources of liquid assets
must be identified and described.
29. The importance of projecting the effects of changes in conditions and policies on the
cash resources of a company is to allow for proper planning and control. For example, if
management decides to ease the credit terms to its customers, knowing the impact of
the new policy on cash resources will help it make a more informed decision. It may seek
improved terms from suppliers or make arrangements to obtain a loan.
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31. Analysis of capital structure is important because the financial stability of a company
and the risk of insolvency depend on the financing sources as well as on the type of
assets it holds and the relative magnitude of such asset categories. Specifically, there
are essential differences between debt and equity, which are the two major sources of
funds. Equity capital has no guaranteed return that must be paid out and there is no
timetable for repayment of the capital investment. From the viewpoint of a company,
equity capital is permanent and can be counted on to remain invested even in times of
adversity. Therefore, the company can confidently invest equity funds in long-term
assets and expose them to the greatest risks. On the other hand, debts are expected to
be paid at certain specified times regardless of a company's financial condition. To the
investor in common stock, the existence of debt contains a risk of loss of investment.
The creditors would want as large a capital base as is possible as a cushion that will
shield them against losses that can result from adversity. Therefore, it is important for
the financial analyst to review carefully all the elements of the capital structure.
32. Financial leverage is the result of borrowing and incurring fixed obligations for interest
and principal payments. The owners of a successful business that requires funds may
not want to dilute their ownership of the business by issuing additional equity. Instead,
they can "trade on the equity" by borrowing the funds required, using their equity capital
as a borrowing base. Financial leverage is advantageous when the rate of return on total
assets exceeds the net after-tax interest cost paid on debt. An additional advantage
provided by financial leverage is that interest expense is tax deductible while dividend
payments are not.
33. Leverage is a two-edged sword. In good times, net income benefit from leverage. In a
recession or when unexpected adverse events occur, net income can be harmed by
leverage. Therefore, the use of leverage is acceptable to the financial markets only up to
some undefined level. Ninety percent is higher than that “acceptable” level. Specifically,
at 90 percent debt to total capital, future financing flexibility would be extremely limited,
lenders would not loan money, and equity financing may cost more than the potential
returns on incremental investments. Also, a 90 percent debt level would make net
earnings extremely volatile, with a sizable increase in fixed charges. The incremental
cost of borrowing, including refunding of maturing issues, increases with the level of
borrowing. A 90 percent debt level could pose the probability of default and receivership
in the event that something goes wrong. The financial risk of such a company would be
much too high for either stockholders or bondholders.
34. In an analysis of deferred income taxes, the analyst must recognize that under normal
circumstances the deferred tax liabilities will “reverse” (become payable) only when a
firm shrinks in size. Shrinkage in firm size is usually accompanied with losses instead of
with taxable income. In such circumstances, the “drawing down” of the deferred tax
account is more likely to involve credits to tax loss carryforwards or carrybacks, rather
than to the cash account. To the extent that a future reversal is only a remote possibility,
the deferred credit should be viewed as a source of long-term funding and be classifiable
as part of equity. On the other hand, if the possibility of a drawing down of the deferred
tax account in the foreseeable future is high, then the account, or a portion of it, is more
in the nature of a long-term liability.
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35. The accounting requirements for the capitalization of leases are not rigorous and definite
enough to insure that all leases that represent, in effect, installment purchases of assets
are capitalized. Consequently, the analyst must evaluate leases that have not been
capitalized with a view to including them among debt obligations. Leases which cover
most (say 75-80 percent) of the useful life of an asset can generally be considered the
equivalent of debt financing. (See Chapter 3 for additional analysis and discussion.)
37. Pension accounting recognizes that if the fair value of pension assets falls short of the
accumulated pension benefit obligation, a liability for pensions exists. However, this
liability normally does not take into consideration the projected benefit obligation that
recognizes an estimate for future pay increases. When pension plans base their benefits
on future pay formulas, the analysts, who judge such understatement as serious and
who can estimate it, may want to adjust the pension liability for analysis purposes.
38. The preferred method of presenting the financial statements of a parent and its
subsidiary is in consolidated format. This is also the preferred method from an analysis
point of view. However, separate financial statements of the consolidated entities are
necessary in some cases, such as when the utilization of assets of a subsidiary (such as
an insurance company or a bank) is not subject to the full discretion of the parent.
Information on unconsolidated subsidiaries is also important when bondholders of such
subsidiaries must look only to a subsidiary’s assets as security. Moreover, bondholders
of the parent company (particularly holding companies) may derive a significant portion
of their fixed charge coverage from the dividends of the unconsolidated subsidiaries.
Yet, in the event of the subsidiary's bankruptcy, the parent bondholders may be in a
junior position to the bondholders of the subsidiary.
39. a. Generally, the minority interest is shown among liabilities in consolidated financial
statements. However, the minority interest differs from debt in that it has neither
mandatory dividend payment requirements nor principal repayment requirements.
Therefore, for the purpose of capital structure analysis, it may be classified as equity
rather than as a liability.
b. The purpose of appropriating retained earnings is to "set aside" a certain portion of
retained earnings to prevent them from serving as a basis for the declaration of
dividends. There exists no claim by an outsider to such an appropriation until the
contingency materializes. Therefore, unless the reason for the amount reserved is
certain to occur, such appropriations should be considered a part of equity capital.
c. A guarantee for product performance is the result of a definite contract with the buyer
that commits the entity to correct product defects. Therefore, it is a potential liability
and should be classified as such.
d. Convertible debt is generally classified among liabilities. However, if the terms of
conversion and the market price of the common stock are such that it is most likely
to be converted into common stock, it should be considered as equity for the
purpose of capital structure analysis.
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40. a. The equity of a company is measured by the excess of total assets over total
liabilities. Accordingly, any analytical revision of asset book values (from amounts
reported at in the financial statements) yields a change in the amount of equity. For
this reason, in assessing capital structure, the analyst must decide whether or not
the book value amounts of assets are realistically stated in light of analysis
objectives.
b. The following are examples of the need for possible adjustments. Different or
additional adjustments may be needed depending on circumstances: (1) Inventories
carried at LIFO are generally understated in times of rising prices. The amount by
which inventories computed under FIFO (which are closer to replacement cost)
exceed inventories computed under LIFO is disclosed as the LIFO reserve. These
disclosures should enable the analyst to adjust inventory amounts and the
corresponding equity amounts to more realistic current costs. (2) For fiscal years
beginning before 12/16/93, marketable securities were generally stated at cost, which
may be below market value. Using parenthetical or footnote information, the analyst
can make an analytical adjustment increasing this asset to market value and
increasing owner's equity by an equal amount. (3) Intangible assets and deferred
items of dubious value, which are included on the asset side of the balance sheet,
have an effect on the computation of the total equity of a company. To the extent that
the analyst cannot evaluate or form an opinion on the present value or future utility of
such assets, they may be excluded from consideration, thereby reducing the amount
of equity by the amounts at which such assets are carried. However, the arbitrary
exclusion of all intangible assets from the capital base is an unjustified exercise in
over-conservatism.
41. Long-term creditors are interested in the future operations and cash flows of a debtor (in
addition to the short-term financial condition of the debtor). For example, a creditor of a
three-year loan would want to make an analysis of solvency assuming the worst set of
economic and operating conditions. For such purposes, an analysis of short-term
liquidity is usually not adequate. However, such a dynamic analysis for the long term is
subject to substantial uncertainties and requires assumptions for a much longer time
horizon. The inevitable lack of detail and the uncertainties inherent in long-term
projections severely limit their reliability. This does not mean that long-term projections
are not useful. What it does mean is that the analyst must be aware of the serious
limitations to which they are subject.
42. Common-size analysis focuses on the composition of the funds that finance a company.
As such, it reflects on the financial risk inherent in the capital structure. Specifically, it
shows the relative magnitudes of the financing sources of the company and allows the
analyst to compare them with similar data of other companies. Instead, capital structure
ratios reflect on the financial risk of a company by relating various components of the
capital structure to each other or to total financing. An advantage of ratio analysis is that
it can be used as a screening device and, moreover, can reflect on relations across more
than one financial statement.
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43. The difference between the book value of equity capital and its market value is usually
due to a number of factors. One of these is the effect of price-level changes. These, in
turn, are caused by at least two factors: change in the purchasing power of money and
change in price due to economic factors such as the law of supply and demand.
Therefore, with fluctuating prices, it is unlikely that historical cost will correspond to
market value. Accounting methods in use can also significantly affect the book values of
assets. For example, a particular depreciation method often is adopted for tax reasons
rather than to measure the loss of value of an asset due to use or obsolescence. The
analyst could potentially adjust for this distortion of current value by valuing the equity
at market value. For actively traded securities this would not be too difficult. However,
the stock market too is often subject to substantial overvaluation and undervaluation
depending on the degree of speculative sentiment. Hence, in most cases, equity capital
will not be adjusted to market—instead, the focus will be on valuing assets and liabilities,
with equity as a residual value.
44. Since liabilities and equity reveal the financing sources of a company, and the asset side
reveals the investment of these funds, we can generally establish direct relations
between asset groups and selected items of capital structure. This does not, of course,
imply that resources provided by certain liabilities or equity should be directly
associated with the acquisition of certain assets. Still, it is valid to assume that the types
of assets a company employs should determine to some extent the sources of resources
used to finance them. Therefore, to help assess the risk exposure of a given capital
structure, the analysis of asset distribution is one important dimension. As an example, if
a company acquired long-term assets by means of short-term borrowings, the analyst
would conclude that this particular method of financing involves a considerable degree
of risk (and cost).
45. The earnings to fixed charges ratio measures directly the relation between debt-related
and other fixed charges and the earnings available to meet these charges. It is an
evaluation of the ability of a company to meet its fixed charges out of current earnings.
Earnings coverage ratios are superior to other tools, such as debt-to-equity ratios, which
do not focus on the availability of funds. This is because earnings coverage ratios
directly measure the availability of funds for payment of fixed charges. Fixed charges are
mainly a direct result of the incurrence of debt. An inability to pay their associated
principal and interest payments represents the most serious risk consequence of debt.
46. Identifying the items to include in "fixed charges" depends on the purpose of the
analysis. Fixed charges can be defined narrowly to include only interest and interest
equivalents or broadly to include all outlays required under contractual obligations—
specifically:
(a) Interest and interest equivalents:
i. Interest on long-term debt (including amortization of any discounts and
premiums).
ii. Interest element included in long-term lease rentals.
iii. Capitalized interest.
(b) Other outlays under contractual obligations:
i. Interest on income bonds (assuming profitable operations—implicit assumption
in such borrowings).
ii. Required deposits to sinking funds and principal payments under serial bond
obligations.
iii. Principal repayments included in lease obligations.
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Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
For each of the above categories, the corresponding income to be included in the ratio
computation should be adjusted accordingly. Regarding fixed charges, those items not
tax deductible must be tax adjusted. This is done by increasing them by an amount equal
to the income tax that would be required to obtain an after-tax income sufficient to cover
the fixed charges. The tax rate to be used should be based on the relation of the taxes on
income from continuing operations to the amount of pre-tax income from continuing
operations—the company's effective tax rate.
47. A company normally signs a long-term purchase contract to either insure that its supply
of essential raw material is not interrupted or to get a favorable purchase discount, or
both. In times of favorable economic conditions, the analyst need not worry about most
such commitments (indeed, they are a positive factor). The only exception is when such
commitments reflect amounts in excess of requirements given expected sales.
Accordingly, if the analyst concludes that the purchase commitments represent the
minimum required supplies, s/he can justifiably exclude the commitments from fixed
charges. If the analyst includes the commitments in fixed charges, income should be
adjusted to reflect the tax-deductible nature of the purchase that will eventually be
recorded as cost of goods sold. Proceeds from the forced sale of excess supplies can
also be deducted on an estimated basis.
48. Net income includes items of revenue that do not generate immediate cash. It also
includes expenses that do not require the immediate use of cash. For a measure of cash
available to meet fixed charges, the more relevant figure is "cash provided by
operations" reported in the statement of cash flows. Net income can sometimes be used
as a proxy of this more appropriate measure of cash availability.
49. Since Company B is under the control of Company A, the latter can siphon off funds
from it to the detriment of B's creditors. Moreover, the customer-supplier relationship
with Company A means that Company A has considerable discretion in the allocation of
revenues, costs, and expenses among the two entities in such a way as to determine
which company will show what portion of the total available income. This again can work
to the detriment of Company B's creditors. As a lender to Company B, one would want to
write into the lending agreement conditions that would prevent parent Company A from
exercising its controlling powers to the detriment of the lender.
50. Debt can never be expected to carry the risks and returns of ownership because of the
fixed nature of its rewards. Also, it cannot serve as the permanent risk capital of a
company because it must be repaid with interest. Moreover, debt is incurred on the
foundation of an equity base. Indeed, equity financing shields or at least reduces the
risks of debt financing. Equity financing also absorbs the losses to which a company is
exposed. Consequently, the assertion is basically accurate.
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51. The advantages of convertible debt are that the company is able to potentially enlarge its
equity base (and/or at a potentially lower cost) than it might otherwise be able to with
pure equity financing. Also, it might be able to sell equity shares at a price in excess of
the current market price and to obtain, in the interim, a lower interest cost because of the
conversion feature of the debt. The disadvantages are that a subsequent decline in the
market price of the stock can postpone conversion substantially and indefinitely. This
would leave the company with a debt burden that it was not prepared to shoulder over
the long term. Consequently, what may have been conceived of as temporary financing
can, in fact, become long-term debt financing.
52. (a) Long-term indentures span such an extended period of time that they are subject to
many uncertainties and imponderables. Consequently, long-term creditors often
insist on the maintenance of certain ratios at specified levels and/or controls over
specific managerial actions and policies (such as dividends and capital
expenditures). However, no restrictive covenant or other contractual arrangement
can prevent operating losses, which present the most serious risk to long-term
creditors.
53. The major reason why debt securities are rated while equity securities are not rest in
the fact that there is a far greater uniformity of approach and homogeneity of
analytical measures used in the evaluation of credit worthiness than there is in the
evaluation of equity securities. This increased agreement on what is being measured
in credit risk analysis has resulted in widespread acceptance of and reliance on
published credit ratings in many sectors of the analyst community.
54. In rating an industrial bond issue, rating agencies focus on the issuing company's asset
protection, financial resources, earning power, management, and the specific provisions
of the debt security. Asset protection is concerned with measuring the degree to which a
company's debt is covered by its assets. Financial resources encompass, in particular,
such liquid resources as cash and other working capital items. Future earning power is a
factor of great importance in the rating of debt securities because the level and the
quality of future earnings determine importantly a company's ability to meet its
obligations. Earnings power is generally a more reliable source of security than is asset
protection. Management abilities, philosophy, depth, and experience always loom
importantly in any final rating judgment. Through interviews, field trips and other
analyses the raters probe into management's goals, the planning process as well as
strategies in such areas as research and development, promotion, new product planning
and acquisitions. The specific provisions of the debt security are usually spelled out in
the bond indenture.
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Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
55. The analyst who can effectively execute financial statement analysis can also improve on
the published bond ratings. Indeed, effective financial statement analysis is possibly
even more valuable in the valuation of debt securities than in the case of equity
securities. Bond ratings cover a wide range of characteristics and they present
opportunities for those who can better identify key differences within a rating
classification. Moreover, rating changes generally lag the market. This lag presents
additional opportunities to an analyst who with superior skill and alertness can identify
important changes before they become generally recognized.
56. Companies hire bond-rating agencies to rate their debt because these ratings are an
externally generated, independent signal of the company's creditworthiness and quality.
Investors would rely less on ratings if they were produced in-house because of
management's incentives to report high quality and of management self-interest. In
short, they act as independent signals of debt quality.
10-16
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
EXERCISES
Exercise 10-1 (20 minutes)
Current Ratio Quick Ratio Working Capital
1.* No change No change No change
2. No change No change No change
3. Increase Increase Increase
4. Decrease No change Decrease
5. Decrease Decrease Decrease
6. Decrease Decrease Decrease
7. Increase Increase No change
8. Decrease Decrease No change
9. Increase Increase Increase
10. No change Decrease No change
* Assumes a sufficient amount is provided for in the Allowance for Bad Debts.
10-17
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
10-18
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
Exercise 10-4—concluded
b. The analyst could, if all underlying evidence and documents were available, detect
each of these methods. However, sufficient evidence, such as invoices and the
books of original entry, will most likely not be available for inspection. Moreover,
these methods may not be recognizable through the usual analysis of financial
statements of the company. If sufficient evidence were available, the following are
techniques that may be used to detect the methods described in a.
1. The analyst could determine the company's usual payment policies, and compare
them with those employed at year-end. S/he could look at the terms of the
liabilities, to see if they were paid at the most beneficial time—in other words, if
any economic benefit was derived by paying them earlier than due or when
normally paid. S/he could inspect the payments in the first month of the following
year, to see if liabilities were paid disproportionately to year-end, taking into
account due dates and normal requirements. An unusually low inventory at
year-end might also indicate failure to purchase merchandise at year-end in an
effort to improve the quick ratio.
2. The analyst could analyze the timing of investments and the use to which they
were put. If s/he sees large capital infusions at year-end, and that these
investments were represented by idle cash, or by marketable securities which are
not related to operations, and where there is little probability of such funds being
required for operations in the near future, the reason might be window dressing.
3. Contracts and invoices might be examined to see when they were entered into
and when they were recorded.
4. The procedures for investigation of excessive borrowing at year-end are the same
as those for excessive investments of equity funds (2. above). Also, the contracts
should be studied to determine if they are bona fide loans.
5. The purchase journal and cash disbursements journal should be examined to
compare expenses incurred towards the end of the year with expenses at the
beginning of the following year, and the reasons for large differences.
6. To determine if the books are being kept open too long, the analyst would study
such documents as the underlying invoices and canceled checks to determine
their actual dates, and to compare this with the dates recorded. S/he might also
confirm material accounts with customers as of the year-end.
10-19
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
A* B* C* D*
1. NE NE I/I=D I/I=D
2. D/NE=D D/NE=D D/D=I D/D=I
3. I/NE=I I/NE=I I/I=D I/I=D
4. NE/I=D NE/I=D I/I=D I/I=D
5. NE NE D/NE=D NE
6. NE NE NE I/NE=I
7. NE NE I/I=D I/I=D
8. NE NE D/D=I D/D=I
9. D/I=D D/I=D NE NE
10. I/NE=I NE NE NE
* Ratio codes and definitions:
A. Total debt / Total equity
B. Long-term debt / Total equity
C. [Pre-tax earnings + Fixed charges (FC)] / FC
D. [Pretax CFO + FC] / FC
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Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
PROBLEMS
Problem 10-1 (60 minutes)
a. Short-term liquidity ratios for Campbell Soup:
1. [36] / [45] = $1,665.5 / $1,298.1 = 1.28
2. ($80.7 [31] + $22.5 [32] + $624.5 [33]) / $1,298.1 [45] = 0.56
3. $6,205.8 [13] / [($624.5 [33] + $564.1)/2] = 10.44
4. $4,258.2 [14] / [($819.8 [34] + $816.0)/2] = 5.21
5. $624.5 [33] / ($6,205.8 / 360) = 36.23
6. $819.8 / ($4,258.2 / 360) = 69.31
7. 36.23 + 69.31 = 105.54
8. ($80.7 + $22.5) / $1,665.5 = 0.062
9. ($80.7 + $22.5) / $1,298.1 = 0.0795
10.
Ending inventory…………………… $ 819.8 [34]
+Cost of goods sold…………………. 4,258.2 [14]
- Beginning inventory.………………. 816.0 (given)
- Depreciation…………………………. 184.1 [187]
=Purchases.…………………………… $4,077.9
($525.2 [41] / ($4,077.9 / 360) = 46.36
11. 105.54 - 46.36 = 59.18
12. $448.4 [64] / $1,298.1 [45] = 34.54%
10-21
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
Problem 10-1—concluded
d. Disregarding, for purposes of this analysis, the prepaid expenses and similar
unsubstantial items entering the computation of the current ratio, we are left with the
four major elements that comprise this ratio—those are cash, accounts receivable,
inventories, and current liabilities. If we define liquidity as the ability to balance
required cash outflows with adequate inflows, including an allowance for unexpected
interruptions of inflows or increases in outflows, we must ask: Does the relation of
these four elements at a given point in time:
1. Measure and predict the pattern of future fund flows?
2. Measure the adequacy of future fund inflows in relation to outflows?
Unfortunately, the answer to both of these questions is primarily no. The current
ratio is a static concept of what resources are available at a given moment in time to
meet the obligations at that moment. The existing reservoir of net funds does not
have a logical or causal relation to the future funds that will flow through it. Yet it is
the future flows that are the subject of our greatest interest in the assessment of
liquidity. These flows depend importantly on elements not included in the ratio itself,
such as sales, profits, and changes in business conditions. There are at least three
conclusions that can be drawn:
1. Liquidity depends to some extent on cash or cash equivalents balances, but to a
much more significant extent on prospective cash flows.
2. There is no direct or established relation between balances of working capital
items and the pattern that future cash flows are likely to assume.
3. Managerial policies directed at optimizing the levels of receivables and
inventories are mainly directed towards efficient and profitable asset utilization
and only secondarily towards liquidity.
These conclusions obviously limit the value of the current ratio as an index of
liquidity. Moreover, given the static nature of this ratio and the fact that it consists of
items that affect liquidity in different ways, we must exercise caution in using this
ratio as a measure of liquidity.
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Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
Problem 10-1—concluded
The current ratio computation views its current asset components as sources of
funds that can, as a means of last resort, be used to pay off the current liabilities.
Viewed this way, the inventory turnover ratios give us a measure of the quality as
well as of the liquidity the inventory component of the current assets. The quality of
inventory is a measure of the company's ability to use it and dispose of it without
loss. When this is envisaged under conditions of forced liquidation, then recovery of
cost is the objective. In the normal course of business, the inventory should, of
course, be sold at a profit. Viewed from this point of view, the normal profit margin
realized by the company assumes importance because the funds that will be
obtained, and that would theoretically be available for payment of current liabilities,
will include the profit in addition to the recovery of cost. In both cases, costs of sales
will reduce net proceeds. In practice, a going concern cannot use its investment in
inventory for the payment of current liabilities because any drastic reduction in
normal inventory levels will surely cut into the sales volume. The turnover ratio is a
gauge of liquidity in that it conveys a measure of the speed with which inventory can
be converted into cash. In this connection, a useful additional measure is the
conversion period of inventories.
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Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
10-24
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
Notes:
[a] 360 days / ($800,000/$150,000) = 67.5 days
Applied to Year 2 sales: $880,000 x (67.5/360) = $165,000
[b]
Year 2 Cost of sales ($520,000 x 110%)……………… $572,000
Ending inventory (given)…………………………… 150,000
Goods available for sale…………………………… 722,000
Beginning inventory………………………………… 65,000
Purchases…………………………………………….. $657,000
[c] Purchases x (Year 1 Accounts payable / Year 1 Purchases)
= $657,000 x ($130,000 / $350,000) = $244,000
10-25
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
Problem 10-3—concluded
10-26
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
Notes:
[1]
Beginning inventory……………………. $ 32,000
+ Purchases (plug)……………………… 331,750
Goods available for sale.………………. 363,750
- Ending inventory………………………. 75,000
Cost of sales ($412,500 x .70)………… $288,750
[2]
Gross profit (30% of sales)……………… $123,750
Depreciation ($25,000 - $21,500)……….. 3,500
Net income (excludes other expenses).. 120,250
Other expenses (plug)………………….… 110,250
Net income (given)………………………... $ 10,000
10-27
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
10-28
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
a.
Ratio Year 5 Year 6
1. Current ratio
Year 5: $61,000/$40,000………………. 1.5
Year 6: $84,000/$54,000………………. 1.6
3. Inventory turnover
5: $99,000/[($32,000+$38,000)/2]…….. 2.83
6: $120,000/[($38,000+$56,000)/2]…… 2.55
b. Most of the liquidity measures of ZETA do not reveal any significant changes from
Year 5 to Year 6. However, there is some deterioration in the inventory turnover. This
deterioration is even more evident in the days' sales in inventory measures.
Moreover, the liquidity index also suggests that the liquidity position of ZETA has
deteriorated from Year 5 to Year 6. Also notice that because of a lower level of
operating cash flows, the cash flow ratio shows a significant decline. Still, due to the
short time span of this analysis, one would want to examine another year or two (say,
Years 3 and 4) to see if these changes reflect a longer-term trend in liquidity.
10-29
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
b. Dell’s balance sheet is strong, with little long-term debt and significant equity
capital. Solvency risk is low, given the low debt level in relation to equity, and
cash from operations is significantly greater than total long-term liabilities.
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Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
10-31
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
Problem 10-8—concluded
10-32
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
b. The company's coverage ratios suggest the existence of sufficient earnings and
cash flows to cover its fixed charges. There is no evidence of concern from any of
these three coverage ratios. For a more complete analysis, we would want to
collect values from other firms (competitors) and additional prior years for
comparative analyses.
10-33
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
Problem 10-10
b. The company's coverage ratios suggest the existence of sufficient earnings and
cash flows to cover its fixed charges. There is no evidence of concern from any of
these three coverage ratios. For a more complete analysis, we would want to
collect values from other firms (competitors) and additional prior years for
comparative analyses.
10-34
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
b. Based on the calculations in part a, the supervisor's concerns about the coverage
ratios are misplaced. Indeed, the company's coverage ratios suggest the
existence of sufficient earnings and cash flows to cover its fixed charges. There
is no evidence of concern from any of these three coverage ratios. For a more
complete analysis, we would want to collect values from other firms (competitors)
and additional prior years for comparative analyses.
10-35
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10-36
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
Debt Equity
Income before interest and taxes—pre-expansion ......... $20,000,000 $20,000,000
Additional income from expansion .................................. 4,000,000 4,000,000
Income before interest and taxes—post-expansion ....... 24,000,000 24,000,000
Interest expense (6%)($20,000,000)+$1,000,000.............. (2,200,000) (1,000,000)
Income before taxes .......................................................... 21,800,000 23,000,000
Income taxes (40%) ............................................................ (8,720,000) (9,200,000)
Net income $13,080,000 $13,800,000
10-37
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
10-38
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
Problem 10-14—concluded
c. 1. Two points: (i) For fiscal years beginning before 12/16/93, marketable securities
were valued at the lower of cost or market under SFAS 12 (for marketable equity
securities) and ARB 43 (for marketable debt securities). During this period the
market value of securities were sometimes substantially higher than shown on
the balance sheet, requiring analytical adjustment. Under current practice, all
marketable securities (except held-to-maturity debt securities) are valued at
market. Hence, only held-to-maturity debt securities are potentially subject to
market adjustment. (ii) An analyst must realize that the longer the elapsed time
since the balance sheet date the greater the likelihood that market values for
marketable securities have changed. Hence, for comparative analysis spanning
several years, adjustments to market may be necessary for investment securities.
2. Deferred income taxes are created when a company uses different accounting
methods for income tax and financial reporting such that so-called timing
differences in income occur. One school of thought argues that deferred taxes
should be recognized as a liability. The presumption is that timing differences will
reverse in the future and the taxes will become payable or that changes in the tax
law could accelerate payment of such taxes. Opponents argue that deferred
taxes should be included in shareholders' equity. The presumption here is that
timing differences are unlikely to reverse and therefore the balance in deferred
taxes will continue to grow and not become payable. This means that the long-
term debt ratio of a company would be adversely affected if deferred taxes are
considered long-term debt (first viewpoint); however, this ratio would be
favorably impacted if such taxes are considered as part of shareholders' equity
(second viewpoint).
10-39
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
a. Ratio Computations
4. Year 5
$16,000 a + $4,000 b + $2,000 c + $16 d + $1,000 e + $1,000 f *
= 3.42
$5,000 g + $2,000 c + $16 d
* Loss per income statement (additional 300 added back in SCF represents dividends
received).
Year 6
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Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
Problem 10-15—concluded
5. Cash from operations* + income tax expense (except deferred taxes)+ fixed charges**
Fixed charges**
The financial leverage index, which underwent only minimal change, is at a level
suggestive of leverage benefits to ZETA's stockholders. There also has been a
marked increase in leverage as is indicated by the total debt to equity and the
long-term debt to equity measures. With total liabilities exceeding equity by over
50 percent, the level of liabilities is significant. The relation of long-term debt to
equity is at a somewhat lower level. The earnings and cash flow coverage of
fixed charges are low on an absolute basis and have declined from Year 5 to Year
6. This decline is primarily because fixed charges increased faster than net
income. Finally, operating cash flows declined in Year 6 compared to Year 5.
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Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
4. Long-term debt to total assets: This leverage ratio remains flat. While a
leverage ratio alone does not indicate a credit problem, the leverage ratio in
combination with other ratios does. That is, BRT is unable to generate higher
returns with the same amount of leverage, which affects operating
performance. The issuance of additional stock allowed the companies to
merge without incurring a larger increase in debt.
10-42
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
Problem 10-16—concluded
Currently, the BRT bonds are trading as BB-rated bonds. Prior to the merger,
BRT’s ratios approximated a weak BB credit. After the merger, all the ratios
declined below values representative of a BB credit rating except the ratio of debt
to total assets, which maintained a BB credit quality. Several other factors may
cause further deterioration in the financial strength of BRT. First, a large portion
of assets is now intangible, which introduces the potential for overstating current
values (or, at the very least, it increases uncertainty). The value of the intangibles
is best measured by their ability to generate revenues. Recent results suggest
that ability is suspect. Second, BRT is not generating sufficient income to cover
interest expenses. This lack of sufficient income makes it difficult to provide for
capital expenditures to maintain and build its current business. Third, with the
weakening financial structure of BRT, the company has further reduced its
flexibility to compete in a highly competitive environment.
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Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
Quantitative Support for Recommendation: The ratio information shows that Patriot
is less risky than Sturdy Machines. First, the pre-tax interest coverage of Sturdy
Machines is just over 1.0 versus Patriot’s 6.1. Second, Patriot’s cash flow to total
debt is higher than Sturdy Machines and is improving. Third, Patriot’s total debt to
capital ratio is lower than Sturdy Machines and it is decreasing.
10-44
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
CASES
Case 10-1 (90 minutes)
a.
FAX Corporation
Forecasted Statement of Cash Receipts and Payments
For Year Ended December 31, Year 2
Beginning cash balance…………………… $ 30,000
Add: Cash Receipts
Beginning accounts receivable…. $ 52,000
+Sales for Year 2 [1]………………. 1,104,000
- Ending accounts receivable [2]... (276,000)
Cash collections……………………. 880,000
Total cash inflows…………………………... 910,000
Deduct: Cash disbursements
Beginning accounts payable…… 60,000
+Purchases for Year 2 [3]………... 600,000
-Ending accounts payable [4]……. (75,000)
Payments to creditors…………….. 585,000
Payments of cash expenses [5]…. 315,920
Payment of notes payable 20,000
Payment of long-term debt……….. 25,000
Total cash disbursements…………………. 945,920
Net cash flow………………………………… $(35,920)
Less minimum cash balance……………… (20,000)
Cash borrowings expected…………… $(55,920)
Notes
[1] Sales for Year 2 = Sales for Year 1 x 115% = $960,000 x 1.15 = $1,104,000
10-45
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
Case 10-1—concluded
Notes—continued
[5] Cash expenses (Year 2) = Selling and Admin. expenses + Taxes paid
S&A (Year 2) = S&A (Year 1) x 110% = $160,000 x 1.1 = $176,000
Income tax expense for Year 2= [Sales - (COGS + Depreciation + S&A)] x .48
= [$1,104,000 - ($605,000 + ($30,000 x 1.05) + $176,000] x .48
= $139,920
b. From the analysis in part a, it is predicted that FAX will need to borrow $55,920 in
Year 2.
10-46
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
Notes
[1] Year 2 Sales = Year 1 Sales x 115% = $960,000 x 1.15 = $1,104,000
[2] Ending A.R. = Average daily sales x Collection Period
= ($1,104,000/360) x 90 = $276,000
[3] Year 2 Purchases = COGS + Ending inventory - Beginning inventory
Year 2 COGS = Year 1 COGS x 110% = $550,000 x 1.1 = $605,000
Average inventory = COGS / Average inventory turnover
= $605,000 / 6 = $100,833.33
Ending inventory = (Average inventory x 2) - (Beginning Inventory)
= ($100,833.33 x 2) - $112,000 = $89,667
Year 2 Purchases = $605,000 + $89,667 - $112,000 = $582,667
[4] Ending A.P. = Year 2 Purchases x (Beg. A.P. / Year 1 Purchases)
= $582,667 x ($60,000/$450,000) = $77,689
[5] Year 2 cash expenses:
Year 1 selling and admin expense x 110% = $160,000 x 1.10 = $176,000
Year 2 income tax expense = [Sales - (COGS + Depr. + Selling & admin exp.)] x .48
= [$1,104,000 - ($605,000 + ($30,000 x 105%) + $176,000)] x .48 = $139,920
Cash expenses = $176,000 + $139,920 = $315,920
b. From the analysis in part a, it is predicted that FAX will need to borrow $35,898 in
Year 2.
10-47
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
a.
Year 5 Year 4
1. Working capital
Current assets 342,000 198,000
Current liabilities 177,800 64,800
Working capital 164,200 133,200
2. Current ratio 1.92 3.06
3. Acid-test ratio
[($12,000 + $183,000) / $177,800] 1.10
[($15,000 + $80,000) / $64,800] 1.47
4. Accounts receivable turnover
$1,684,000 / [($183,000 + $80,000) / 2] 12.81
$1,250,000 / [($80,000 + $60,000) / 2] 17.86
5. Collection period of receivables
360 / 12.81 28.10
360 / 17.86 20.16
6. Inventory turnover ratio
($927,000 / [($142,000 + $97,000) / 2] 7.76
($810,000 / [($97,000 + $52,000) / 2] 10.88
7. Days to sell inventory
360 / 7.76 46.39
360 / 10.88 33.09
8. Debt-to-equity ratio
(120 + 30 + 147.8) / (110 + 94.2) 1.46
(73 + 14.4 + 50.4) / (110 + 60.2) 0.81
9. Times interest earned
$87,000 / $12,000 7.25
$43,300 / $7,300 5.93
b.
Index-number trend series Year 5 Year 4 Year 3
Sales………………………………… 160.4 119.0 100.0
Cost of goods sold……………….. 181.1 158.2 100.0
Gross profit………………………… 140.7 81.8 100.0
Marketing and administrative…. 143.2 84.8 100.0
Net income…………………………... 112.5 54.0 100.0
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Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
Case 10-3—concluded
c. A loan should not be granted, as it appears that the overall financial position of
the company is deteriorating. The following points should be noted:
Before any loans are made to the company, management must address the
issues above and an improved financial condition must be demonstrated.
10-49
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
a. The following eight considerations are relevant for discussions with management
and beginning the task of credit analysis:
1. Economic cyclicality. How closely do the tobacco, food, and beverage industries
track GNP? Is tobacco consumption more tied to sociopolitical and regulatory
factors than to economic ones? Cyclicality of an industry is the starting point an
analyst should consider in reviewing an industry. A company's earnings growth
should be compared against the growth trend of its industry, with significant
deviations carefully analyzed. Industries may be somewhat dependent on general
economic growth, demographic changes, and interest rates. In general, however,
industry earnings are not perfectly correlated with any one economic statistic.
Not only are industries sensitive to many economic variables, but often segments
within a company or industry move with different lags in relation to the overall
economy.
2. Growth prospects. Are the businesses that Altria is operating within growing at a
steady pace, or is growth slipping? Will European consumption of cigarettes
begin to slow as they have in the U.S. due to more no smoking regulations?
Related to the issue of growth, is there consolidation going on in tobacco, food or
beverages? Alternate growth scenarios have different implications for a
company. With high-growth industries, the need for additional capacity and
related financing is an issue. With low-growth industries, movements toward
diversification and/or consolidation strategies are a possibility. As a general
proposition, companies in high-growth industries have greater potential for credit
improvement than companies operating in lower-growth industries.
3. Research & development. R&D activities are not large in the tobacco, food or
beverage industries, although expenditures are directed at new product
development. In general, it is safe to characterize these businesses as having a
stable product line that will not vary much over time. For firms relying on such
expenditures to maintain or improve market position, it is important to assess
whether the company in question has the financial resources to maintain a
leadership position or at least expend a sufficient amount of money to keep
technologically current.
4. Competition. How competitive are these industries? Are there players who are out
to gain market share at the expense of profits? Is the industry trending toward
oligopoly, which would make small companies in the industry vulnerable to the
economies of scale the larger companies bring to bear? Economic theory shows
us how competition within an industry relates to market structure and has
implications for pricing flexibility. An unregulated monopoly is in position to price
its goods at a level that will maximize profits. Most industries, however,
encounter free market forces and cannot price their goods/services without
consideration of supply and demand as well as the price charged for substitute
goods/services. Oligopolies often have a pricing leader. Analysts must be
concerned about small companies in an industry that is trending toward
oligopoly. In such an environment, the small company's production costs may
exceed those of the industry leaders. If a small firm is forced to follow the pricing
of the industry leaders, the firm may be driven out of business.
10-50
Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
Case 10-4—concluded
5. Sources of supply. Are these businesses vulnerable to the cost of production
inputs? Or is the market position of Altria such that it can easily pass on higher
raw material costs? Industry market structure often has a direct impact on
sources of supply. From a competitive standpoint, the company that controls its
factors of production is in a superior position.
6. Degree of regulation. Tobacco has faced some regulatory hurdles in the past
(especially the recent past), as has food and beverage to a lesser degree. What
does the future hold in this area? The analyst should be concerned with the
direction of regulation and its effect on future profitability.
7. Labor. Are these businesses heavily unionized? What is the status of
labor-management relations? When the labor market is "tight," this is an
important consideration in nonunionized companies.
8. Accounting. Do these businesses have any unique accounting practices that
warrant special attention? As stressed throughout the text, an analyst must
become familiar with industry accounting practices before proceeding with a
company analysis. To assess whether a company is liberal or conservative in
applying GAAP industry practices should be examined.
b. 1a. Ratios for Altria for Year 9 before the acquisition of Kraft are:
Pretax interest coverage = ($4,820+$500)/$500 = 10.64
LT debt as % of capitalization = $3,883/($3,883+$9,931) = 28.11%
CF as % of total debt = ($2,820+$750+$100-$125)/($3,883+$1,100) = 71.14%
1b. Ratios for Altria for Year 9 pro forma for the acquisition of Kraft are:
Pretax interest coverage = ($4,420+$1,600)/$1,600 = 3.76
LT debt as % of capitalization = $15,778/($15,778+$9,675) = 61.99%
CF as % of total debt = ($2,564+$1,235+$390-$125)/($15,778+$1,783) = 23.14%
2. Relating these ratios to the median ratios for the various bond rating
categories places Altria in the position shown below:
Before Kraft Ratio Implied Rating
Pretax interest coverage ................................. 10.64 AA
LT debt as % of cap. ........................................ 28.11% A
CF as % of total debt ....................................... 71.14% A+/AA-
After Kraft Ratio Implied Rating
Pretax interest coverage ................................. 3.76 BBB
LT debt as % of cap. ........................................ 61.99% B
CF as % of total debt ....................................... 23.14% BB
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Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
a.
Asset Protection Year 7 Year 9
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Chapter 10 - Credit Analysis
Case 10-5—concluded
c. One might conclude from the qualitative considerations in part b that the shift
toward petrochemicals makes ABEX more vulnerable to the vagaries of the
economic cycle. If so, this will lead to a more volatile earnings stream going
forward. To this extent, there is some pressure for a rating downgrade.
Looking at the ratio analysis in part a, one might conclude that there is relatively
little deterioration in credit quality. The modest deterioration in asset protection
seems to be offset by higher cash flow margins, which allows the company to
support the higher debt burden. However, the greater reliance on short-term debt
to finance the increased working capital requirements is somewhat troublesome.
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