One would think that mathematics and Tennis have no relation at all, but upon getting into the

details of the
sport, there is a lot of mathematics involved. Ranging from the structure of the tournament to the
calculations involving the winning probability and projectile motion of the sport, math plays a huge part in
it.
Before every tournament begins, there has to be a schedule of fixtures which are pre-decided and structured
involving the statistics of players. To make the designing of fixtures in a systematic way, it has to start by
laying the foundation for the first round of the tournament. The participants of the tournament must first be
seeded. Looking at this, it is pretty obvious that seeding can be done on the basis of World Rankings. But
there is a systematic approach to determine the rankings.

WORLD RANKINGS
The Association of Tennis for Men and Women both calculate and update the rankings for the Tennis
players every week. The awarding of points to each player is done separately for doubles and singles. The
rank is then decided in the descending manner of points. For the ranking of double teams, total rank points
between the two players are considered together. Ranking for each player is calculated by considering the
player’s best tournament results over the last year with the condition of having at least one Grand Slam in it.
The points are awarded on the basis of the type of tournament and which round did the player reach. It is an
example of exponential growth as the points double for every extra round a player qualifies. For winning the
championship 2000 points are awarded, for getting knocked out in the semi-final 780 points.

SEEDING A TOURNAMENT
Seeding a tournament involves listing of the top 32 participants using the World rankings as calculated
above. Three of the four Grand Slams except Wimbledon follow this rule for seeding. The formula for
seeding at Wimbledon is as follows:

Ranking points = ATP + Gall + (75%×Gbest)

1. Gall:: Total points earned in the past 12 months in grass court tournaments alone.
2. Gbest :: Number of points awarded for player’s best performance at grass court
tournaments in the 12 months before.
3. ATP :: Total ATP points of the player before the tournament.

STRUCTURING A TOURNAMENT
Two important things are considered while structuring a tournament. First, the number of matches should be
reasonable as there are 128 entries in a single tournament. Unlike football this cannot have every player play
each other (8128 matches) , so this sport decides to conduct single elimination tournament which would lead
to 127 matches in total. The simple math involved here is that one player has to lose at least one match to be
eliminated. So, whatever the approach is, for 128 players, there has to be 127 matches because 127 players
have to be eliminated to decide the winner.
 Single-elimination tournament

The second important thing for structuring a tournament is

that the makers of the fixtures should arrange it in such a way that no top seed players clash with each other
in the early stages of the tournament. The idea is to not make the top 2 seeds to play before finals, top 4
before the semi-finals, top 8 before the quarter-finals and likewise.
Here is one example of a well-structured tournament.

CALCULATION OF SCORES
There are many ways a game of a tennis match can go. The game is won by the person who is the first to
win their own 4th point. Points are in the format – 15,30,40 and game if there is no deuce. Suppose both have
won 3 points each, then the person who wins consecutively 2 points after that wins the game. This is where
the concept of deuce comes into play. Deuce is a term when both players have won 3 points. The person
winning the next point after deuce is said to be in ‘advantage’ and from that position if the same player wins
the point then it is a game. Ad-in term is used when the server is in an advantage point and Ad-out is used
when the receiver is in an advantage point.
 A representation of all the possible
outcomes in a game.

sg- Server’s game

rg- Receiver’s game

AN INTERESTING PARADOX
In tennis not every point affects the outcome of a particular game, and not every game affects the outcome
of the set or match. This is very interesting as it is unlike many other sports. For example, in a match
between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, if Andy wins the first 3 points of a game then the game score is
40-0(Assuming Andy is the server). Even if Novak wins the next 2 points (score now 40-30) and then loses
the third point, the game goes to Andy, and the next game begins. Similar situation when a person wins
games in a set but ultimately one person wins the set. The most interesting take from this is that it has been
observed that sometimes the player with fewer number of points won has won the match(Real life example
is the match between John Isner and Nicolas Mahut at the Wimbledon), or even a person with fewer games
in his/her side has won the game(Real life example is the match between Roger Federer and Andy Roddick).
This paradox is closely related to Simpson’s Paradox.

PROBABILITY OF WINNING(http://datagenetics.com/blog/august12018/index)
There are many ways that a game, set or match can be won. Different combinations of situations may lead to
the same end result and hence probability plays a huge part in it. The probability of winning a point for a
particular person can be taken as ‘p’ which makes the probability of the other person winning a point as (1-
p). Here, ‘p’ depends upon the skillset of the first person as compared to the other and hence that is the
reason to keep it as a variable. For the help of understanding let us take calculate the probability from the
point of player X competing with Y. Probability of X winning a point is ‘p’.
PROBABILITY OF WINNING A GAME
There are 4 ways in which a game can be won by X- (Game-0), (Game-15), (Game-30), winning after deuce
i.e. (40-40) .

 (Game-0)
This implies that all the points have been won by X which means that the probability of winning the
4
game would be p*p*p*p = p

 (Game-15)
This implies that the last point has been won by X along with 3 of the 4 initial points[which can be
4
won in ( C3 )ways].
4 3
The probability would be = p* ( C3 ) *p *(1-p)

4
= 4p (1-p)
 (Game-30)
This implies that the last point has been won by X along with 3 of the 5 initial points[which can be
5
won in ( C3 )ways].
5 3 2
The probability would be = p* ( C3 ) *p *(1-p)

4 2
= 10p (1-p)

 (Winning from deuce i.e. [40-40] )

This calculation is somewhat different. First we will calculate the probability of reaching the (40-40)
position. Each player needs to win exactly 3 points out of the first 6. The probability would be = (
6 3 3
C3 ) *p *(1-p)
3 3
= 20p (1-p)
Now we need to calculate the probability to win after deuce, let us take it as ‘d’.
3 3
Therefore, the probability of winning a game via deuce would be = 20p (1-p) *d.
Now there can be 4 possibilities from deuce.
i)X winning 2 consecutive points and hence winning the game
ii)X losing 2 consecutive points and hence losing the game
iii)X winning a point and then losing the next point making the score deuce again.
iv)X losing a point and then winning the next point making the score deuce again.

We need to calculate ‘d’ before proceeding,

2
d= p + [p(1-p) + (1-p) p] *d
2
d= p + 2p(1-p) *d
2
d= p
1- 2p(1-p)

Outcomes of Deuce
 3 3 5 3
Therefore, the total probability of winning via deuce = 20p (1-p) *d = 20p (1-p)
1 – 2p(1-p)

Adding all the possibilities of winning the game:

4 4 4 2 5 3
Probability of winning a game = p + 4p (1-p) + 10p (1-p) + 20p (1-p)
1 – 2p(1-p)

Comparison of how the probability of

winning a point has huge impact in
winning a game, set and match