An Analysis into the probability of winning the Jackpot

on the National Lottery

By Jack Dunn

Outline
In the national lottery, a player picks six numbers from 1 to 59. During the
draw, six balls with the numbers from 1- 59 are drawn and a bonus ball is
also drawn from the remaining balls which only affects those who match 5
balls correctly. To win the jackpot, the player must correctly match all six
numbers. For the bonus ball, If the final number selected by the player
matches the bonus ball, the player receives 50000: if not the player
receives 1000.

For matching n balls, the prizes are as follows:

0 n 6

Prize

0
1
2
3
4
5(Does not match bonus ball)
5(Match bonus ball)
6

Nothing
Nothing
Free Ticket
25
100
1000
50000
Jackpot

The number of combinations of selecting six numbers from 59 is:

59

C6=

59 !
(596)= 6 ! ( 596
)!

combinations
So the probability of winning the jackpot P(J) is:

P(J) =

1
45057474

45,057,474

However, we have not considered the fact that if you match 2 balls, you
receive a free ticket, a fact we need to consider.

P(match 2 balls)
Imagine 2 boxes, one with the players six balls and one with the
remaining 53 balls. To match 2 balls, we need two from the players box
and four from the other box. Therefore, the combinations are:

Player
s 6
balls

Remain
ing 53
balls

(62 )

(534)

Thus, the probability of matching 2 balls is number of combinations of the

players balls multiplied by the number of combinations of the remaining
53 balls, all divided by the total number of combinations of 6 balls from
59.
6 . 53
(
2) ( 4 )
P ( match2 ) =

59
(6)

0.097484

Now let us consider the probability of continually winning a free ticket

(matching 2 balls):
P(free ticket) = 1 +
(P ( match 2 ))

P ( match2 )

(P ( match 2 ))

n1

( P ( match 2 ))

This is a geometric series of the form:

U n=a r

U n=( P ( match 2 ))n1

Now a

exists as

|r|<1

S P(free ticket)=

a
1
=
1.108
1r 1 p (match 2)

The new probability of winning the jackpot (P(J*)) is the original P(J)
multiplied by the Sum to infinity of the probability of continually winning a
free ticket ( S P(free ticket) ).

P(J*) = P(J) . S P(free ticket)

P(J*) =

1
40665099

Probability of winning the jackpot using the Investing

Winnings Strategy
Now, what if we take the winnings of matching balls 3-5 and turn them
into tickets for further lotteries. What is the new probability of winning the
jackpot? (1 Ticket = 2)
n
0
1
2
3
4
5(nbb)*
5(bb)**
*(Does not match bonus ball)

Prize
Nothing
Nothing
Free Ticket
25
100
1000
50000
**(Match bonus ball)

Tickets(n)
0
0
1
12.5
50
500
25000

If we generalise p(match2) we can obtain an expression for matching n

balls as:
6 . 53
(
n) ( 6n )
P ( match n )=
(596)
To account for the probability of matching or not matching the bonus ball.
P (match 5(nbb)) and P (match 5(bb)) are as follows:

P ( match5 (nbb) )=P ( match 5 ) .

P ( match5 (bb) )=P ( match 5 ) .

52
53

1
53

Thus the probability of getting another ticket is the sum of the

probability of matching n balls multiplied by the number of
tickets expecting to receive from the prize:
n
0
1
2
3
4
5(nbb)*
5(bb)**

P (match n)

Tx(n)

0
0
0.097484
0.010398
0.00045875
0.0000069245
0.00000013316

0
0
1
12.5
50
500
25000

n=5 ( bb )

P ( fTx )=

p ( match n ) .Tx ( n ) 0.2572

n=0

Again, the probability of continually receiving another ticket

( P ( c fTx ))

can be expressed as a geometric series.

P(c fTx)
P( fTx)5

2
3
4
= 1 + P( fTx) + P( fTx) + P( fTx) + P( fTx) +

U n=P(fTx)n1

Now a

S P(cfTx)=

exists as

n1
( U n=a r
)

|r|<1

a
1
=
1.346
1r 1 p(fTx)

Therefore, the total probability of winning the jackpot on the national

lottery by investing all your winning into more tickets is the original

probability of matching all 6 balls (P(J)) multiplied by the sum to infinity of

the probability of continually receiving another ticket from all prizes. (
S P(cfTx) ).

P(J**) = P(J) . S P(c f Tx)

P(J**) =

1
33469099

Conclusion
Assumed probability of winning the jackpot: P(J) = 1 in
45,057,474
Actual probability accounting for free ticket: P(J*) = 1 in
40,665,099
Probability using investing winnings strategy: P(J**) = 1
in 33,469,099

Actual values used

P ( match2 ) =

4392375
45057474

S P ( free ticket )=1.108013385

p(fTx) = 0.2571909602
S P ( c f Tx )= 1.346241021