Neural Computing and Applications

An Application of Hybrid ANN-Whale Optimization Algorithm Model in Prediction of

Field Capacity and Permanent Wilting Point of Soils
--Manuscript Draft--

Manuscript Number: NCAA-D-19-00107R1

Full Title: An Application of Hybrid ANN-Whale Optimization Algorithm Model in Prediction of

Field Capacity and Permanent Wilting Point of Soils

Article Type: Original Article

Keywords: Ant colony Algorithm, Bee Colony Algorithm, Field capacity, Grey Wolf Algorithm,
Permanent wilting point, Whale Optimization Algorithm

Abstract: Soil properties such as permanent wilting point (PWP) and soil field capacity (FC) are
considered to be two crucial parameters in studying soil moisture within a region. Since
the definition of these parameters at basin scale are expensive and time consuming,
there have been several biophysical and agricultural attempts to predict them using
other properties of soils. Subsequently, over consumption of agricultural water used in
Lake Urmia basin was accused as one of the main factors in drastic degradation of
Urmia Lake surface area. Hence, the aim of this study is to develop and evaluate an
application of a new hybrid artificial neural network (ANN) model coupled with whale
optimization algorithm (WOA) as a heuristic optimization tool, namely ANN-WOA, in
forecasting field capacity and permanent wilting point of soils. In this respect, lake
Urmia basin’s data were used to evaluate the results of the proposed model. Then,
results obtained by ANN-WOA were compared with other core optimization models of
ANN. For this aim, combination of Ant colony algorithm with ANN (ANN-ACA), bee
colony algorithm with ANN (ANN-BCA), and grey wolf algorithm with ANN (ANN-GWA)
in comparison with a parametric multi linear regression (MLR) models were used to
predict FC and PWP using soil texture elements. Percentage of clay, sand, and silt
together with organic matter (OM) are used as independent variables to predict FC and
PWP in soil structure. Results of the hybrid swarm -ANN models found to be superior
to those obtained by ANN and/or MLR. It is concluded that the ANN-WOA and ANN-
GWA are the best and second best models respectively, among the selected models to
predict FC and PWP in Lake Urmia soil samples. Superior results obtained by ANN-
WOA model, shows that this model can be useful in soil, water, and agricultural
studies.

Response to Reviewers: Journal of Neural Computing and Applications

Ref.: NCAA-D-19-00107
Title: An Application of Hybrid ANN-Whale Optimization Algorithm Model in Prediction
of Field Capacity and Permanent Wilting Point of Soils

Dear Dr. Ertuğrul,

We are particularly thankful for your insightful comments on our paper. We have
particularly controlled your comments on the degrees of similarity in our manuscript
and find out the most of those words are common expressions used in the general
literature.
We have revised some parts of it, however we came up with about 30% similarity
which is more than the previous one. But it is worthy of attention that we have cited the
article of Ghorbani et al, (2017) which now shows about 3% similarity. We have
attached the results of iThenticate software which also can be controlled by you on the
main manuscript. Thus, we believe that the highlighted similarities are nothing more
than common words which are inevitable in using those words in the text. We also
want to underline that, the similarities are well cited and there are no overlaps between
our results and previous literature as can be seen from the iThenticate report.
We hope now that you will be satisfied with our responses such that you find our
submission worthy of publication in Journal of Neural Computing and Applications.

Best Regards,

Babak Vaheddoost
(On behalf of the authors)

Powered by Editorial Manager® and ProduXion Manager® from Aries Systems Corporation
 Bursa Technical University
Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences
Department of Civil Engineering
Bursa, Turkey
Email: babak.vaheddoost@btu.edu.tr
Tel: (+90) 224 300 3327
GSM: (+90) 534 053 0024
06 February 2019

Powered by Editorial Manager® and ProduXion Manager® from Aries Systems Corporation
title page Click here to access/download;Manuscript;title page.docx

Click here to view linked References

1 1 An Application of Hybrid ANN-Whale Optimization Algorithm Model in

2
3 2 Prediction of Field Capacity and Permanent Wilting Point of Soils
4
5 3 Babak Mohammadi1, Babak Vaheddoost2*
6
7
8 4 1. PhD. Student. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing,
9 5 China. ORCID: 0000-0001-8427-5965. Email: babak@hhu.edu.cn
10
11
6 2. PhD. Bursa Technical University. Department of Civil Engineering. Bursa, Turkey.
12 7 ORCID: 0000-0002-4767-6660. Email: babak.vaheddoost@btu.edu.tr
13
14 8 * Corresponding Author:
15 9 Babak Vaheddoost
16
17 10 Bursa Technical University. Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Department of
18 11 Civil Engineering.
19
20 12 Email: babak.vaheddoost@btu.edu.tr
21 13 Tel: (+90) 534 053 0024
22
23
24
14 Abstract
25
26 15 Soil properties such as permanent wilting point (PWP) and soil field capacity (FC) are
27 16 considered to be two crucial parameters in studying soil moisture within a region. Since the
28
29 17 definition of these parameters at basin scale are expensive and time consuming, there have been
30 18 several biophysical and agricultural attempts to predict them using other properties of soils.
31
32 19 Subsequently, over consumption of agricultural water used in Lake Urmia basin was accused
33 20 as one of the main factors in drastic degradation of Urmia Lake surface area. Hence, the aim of
34 21 this study is to develop and evaluate an application of a new hybrid artificial neural network
35
36 22 (ANN) model coupled with whale optimization algorithm (WOA) as a heuristic optimization
37 23 tool, namely ANN-WOA, in forecasting field capacity and permanent wilting point of soils. In
38
39 24 this respect, lake Urmia basin’s data were used to evaluate the results of the proposed model.
40 25 Then, results obtained by ANN-WOA were compared with other core optimization models of
41 26 ANN. For this aim, combination of Ant colony algorithm with ANN (ANN-ACA), bee colony
42
43 27 algorithm with ANN (ANN-BCA), and grey wolf algorithm with ANN (ANN-GWA) in
44 28 comparison with a parametric multi linear regression (MLR) models were used to predict FC
45
46 29 and PWP using soil texture elements. Percentage of clay, sand, and silt together with organic
47 30 matter (OM) are used as independent variables to predict FC and PWP in soil structure. Results
48 31 of the hybrid swarm -ANN models found to be superior to those obtained by ANN and/or MLR.
49
50 32 It is concluded that the ANN-WOA and ANN-GWA are the best and second best models
51 33 respectively, among the selected models to predict FC and PWP in Lake Urmia soil samples.
52
53 34 Superior results obtained by ANN-WOA model, shows that this model can be useful in soil,
54 35 water, and agricultural studies.
55
56
36 Key words: Ant colony Algorithm, Bee Colony Algorithm, Field capacity, Grey Wolf
57
58 37 Algorithm, Permanent wilting point, Whale Optimization Algorithm
59 1
60
61
62
63
64
65
main text Click here to access/download;Manuscript;manuscript.docx

Click here to view linked References

1 38 1. Introduction
2
3
4 39 Mild moisture and soil conductivity are two important aspects in studying the movement of
5
6
7 40 water and minerals in soils. Field capacity (FC) is defined as the amount of moisture, remained
8
9 41 in the soil after which the excessive water is drained away from the soil. It is usually reached
10
11
12 42 after several days overpassing precipitation and (or) irrigation within a uniformly structured
13
14 43 soils. On the other hand, Permanent wilting point (PWP) is defined as the minimum soil
15
16
17 44 moisture demand of a plant in order to not wilt. Considering this, any reduction of soil moisture
18
19 45 at this point will cause a great harm to the plant which no longer recovery would be applicable
20
21
22
46 (Tuncay et al., 2018). Studying of these points found to be necessary in calculation of the
23
24 47 required irrigation depth and available water in the ground. Hence, in a relatively small area
25
26 48 with an acceptable homogeneity, in terms of soil physicochemical properties, it would be
27
28
29 49 possible to gain a good approximations of the moisture by performing an acceptable number of
30
31 50 costly and time consuming field and lab experiments (Keshavarzi et al., 2012; Veihmeyer and
32
33
34 51 Hendrickson, 1949).
35
36
37 52 In this respect, soil’s hydrological characteristics like the amount of the water in the soil as the
38
39
40 53 difference between FC and PWP to describe the ability of water retention in the soil are
41
42 54 important in irrigation management, water and soil processes modeling, hydrological issues of
43
44
45
55 catchment areas, and environmental management (Pachepsky and Rawls, 2003; Wosten et al.,
46
47 56 2001). Since, the definition of FC and PWP take place in field studies by spending a lot of time
48
49 57 and money (Mohanty et al., 2015), there have been several attempts to define more efficient
50
51
52 58 ways in determining those properties more practically. Rab et al. (2011) defined these two
53
54 59 parameters as vital hydraulic characteristics in modelling water and solute transport. Jafarnejadi
55
56
57 60 et al. (2012) studied best schedule and rate of irrigation by means of FC and PWP. There are
58
59 2
60
61
62
63
64
65
 61 also previous researchers that made effort in prediction of FC and PWP in a more practical way.
1
2 62 Therefore, researchers and scientists are working on ways for prediction FC and PWP by highly
3
4
5 63 accuracy. Some previous studies reported that clay, sand, and silt content together with organic
6
7 64 matter, are effective in predicting FC and PWP by parametric and nonparametric modeling
8
9
10 65 techniques, such as regression and artificial intelligence (e.g. Bishop and McBratney, 2001;
11
12 66 Khosla et al., 2002; Mzuku et al., 2005; Liu et al., 2006). By consideration of the high cost of
13
14
15
67 measuring FC and PWP, it is almost impossible to measure this parameter continuously
16
17 68 (Merdun et al., 2006). On the other hand, soil texture characteristics are important parameters
18
19 69 for predicting soil hydraulic properties, which can be used to predict soil’s hydraulic properties.
20
21
22
23 70 Along with development of soil models, invention and widespread of more efficient computers
24
25 71 and machine learning techniques found to be very handy by researchers. However, developed
26
27
28 72 methods by far had their own limitations. For instance, while linear models had to face
29
30 73 nonlinearity, dynamical approaches deal with the curse of dimensionality and state-space
31
32
33 74 discretization. On the other hand, nonlinear solutions had problems in trapping into local
34
35 75 extremums while the stochastic approaches have to do with large scale changes and
36
37
38
76 randomness. Thereby, real world problems such as defining FC and PWP started to benefit from
39
40 77 some nonparametric and ranked based approaches.
41
42
43 78 In recent years’ studies, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques which are mostly nonparametric
44
45
46 79 methods, e.g. artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM), reported to
47
48 80 be successful in many studies including soil science (Jafarzadeh et al., 2016). The
49
50
51 81 nonparametric nature of AI techniques however, represented a major advantage since they do
52
53 82 not require a conceptual approach (Gocic et al., 2015; Emamgholizadeh et al., 2018). Thus, the
54
55
56 83 after math of such development was the declaration of success in studying FC and PWP
57
58
59 3
60
61
62
63
64
65
 84 (Minasny and McBratney, 2002; Sarmadian et al., 2008; Sarmadian et al., 2009; Keshavarzi et
1
2 85 al., 2010; Rab et al., 2011; Jafarnejadi et al., 2012; Mohanty et al., 2015).
3
4
5
6 86 Similarly, Rab et al. (2011) has been proposed to use soil hydraulic properties as an effective
7
8 87 method in estimating FC and PWP parameter. Gulser and Candemir (2014) tried to introduced
9
10
11 88 water availability using dynamic soil models. In addition, many researchers have been declared
12
13 89 AI techniques very handy in modeling nonlinear issues (e.g. Moazenzadeh et al., 2018;
14
15
16
90 Emamgholizadeh et al., 2018; Jahani and Mohammadi, 2018; Ghorbani et al., 2018).
17
18
19 91 Many scientists believe that the application of the nature-oriented, evolutionary algorithms
20
21
22
92 inspired by the million years of evolution would be helpful in upgrading problem solving
23
24 93 methods. Accordingly, using combinatorial intelligence and estimating tools like the artificial
25
26 94 neural network in recent years has been a great help in solving hydrological and soil science
27
28
29 95 problems. For instance, the combination of genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm
30
31 96 optimization (PSO) and Firefly Algorithm (FA) has been successful in modeling hydrological
32
33
34 97 processes (Jahani and Mohammadi 2018; Ghorbani et al. 2017; Moazenzadeh et al. 2018).
35
36
37 98 Here in, the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) is used as an optimizer at the core of an
38
39
40 99 ANN-based model. Accordingly, main objectives of this study are (i) to develop a new hybrid
41
42 100 model called the whale optimization algorithm combined with artificial neural network (ANN-
43
44
45
101 WOA). For this aim, percentage of clay, percentage of silt, and percentage of sand in the soil
46
47 102 together with measured organic matter of the soils were used in perdition of FC and PWP. (ii)
48
49 103 The performance of the suggested model was also evaluated against several swarm intelligence
50
51
52 104 optimization algorithms namely, ant colony algorithm (ANN-ACA), bee colony algorithm
53
54 105 (ANN-BCA), and grey wolf algorithm (ANN-GWA) models together with MLR in prediction
55
56
57
58
59 4
60
61
62
63
64
65
 106 of FC and PWP to test if the results of the suggested model (i.e. ANN-GWA) has any priority
1
2 107 in application.
3
4
5
6 108 2. Case of Study
7
8
9 109 Lake Urmia basin have been driven a lot of attention due to rapid decrease in Lake’s water level
10
11
12 110 since late 90s’. It is located between 44° 07′ - 47° 53′ north longitudes and 35° 40′ - 38° 30′ east
13
14 111 latitudes (Vaheddoost and Aksoy, 2017). As a UNESCO Biosphere, declared at Ramsar
15
16
17 112 Convention in 19871 (UNESCO, 2012) and the World’s second largest permanent hyper-saline
18
19 113 lake, it is dealing with a dramatic surface degradation. This rapid change assumed to be linked
20
21
22
114 with mismanagement, climate change, and interference with the natural hydrology of the basin
23
24 115 caused by dams, unregistered wells, and depreciation of water (Pengra, 2012). Since
25
26 116 Vaheddoost and Aksoy (2018) proved that there are significant relations in time and space
27
28
29 117 between groundwater levels in the basin and lake water level, the present study expected to
30
31 118 have indirect added value to the literature of the Lake Urmia basin. In this respect, Figure 1
32
33
34 119 shows the location of the Lake Urmia basin as well as the field samples which were evaluated
35
36 120 in this study.
37
38
39
40 121 [Figure 1]
41
42 122 3. Data
43
44
45 123 The samples analysis for this study consist of soils in different regions of the lake Urmia basin
46
47
48 124 (217 soil samples), soil profile horizons scattered over the Lake Urmia basin in West- and East-
49
50 125 Azerbaijan provinces of Iran (Figure 1) between October and November, 2016. The parameters
51
52
53 126 required for this study include the sand, silt, and clay were acquired using hydrometer method
54
55 127 (Gee and Bauder, 1986) and organic matter (OM) of the soil samples was measured by Walkley-
56
57
58
128 Black method (Nelson and Sommers, 1982). Soil moisture was determined at -10 kPa (FC) for
59 5
60
61
62
63
64
65
 129 undisturbed samples and -1500 kPa (PWP) for disturbed samples using ceramic plate bubble-
1
2 130 tower suction tables (Romano et al., 2002). Statistical characteristics of these samples are given
3
4
5 131 in Table 1.
6
7
8 132 [Table 1]
9
10
11
12 133 It is obvious that the highest mean, median, mode, standard deviation, and maximum are
13
14 134 associated with sand. In addition, the highest kurtosis and the lowest minimum respectively
15
16
17 135 belongs to OM and PWP while the highest coefficient of variation (CV) and skewness belongs
18
19 136 to clay. In addition, for better understanding of the nature of relationship between clay, sand,
20
21
22
137 silt, and OM as independent variables with FC and PWP as the dependent variables, relationship
23
24 138 (Figure 2 and 3) and correlation matrix (Table 2) of pair observations are also evaluated.
25
26
27 139 [Figure 2] [Figure 3] [Table 2]
28
29
30
31 140 Based on Table 2, the most correlated independent parameter with FC and PWP is OM. The
32
33 141 same results are confirmed by Figure 2 and 3 whilst second degree curve fittings are used to
34
35
36 142 evaluate the relationship between OM versus FC and also PWP with determination coefficients
37
38 143 of 0.47 and 0.57 respectively. Other parameters, i.e. clay, sand, and silt, shows more random
39
40
41 144 relationship, while neither a linear (Table 2) nor a non-linear (Figure 2 and 3) relation could
42
43 145 explain the core relationship between dependent and independent variables. Since OM is the
44
45
46
146 footprint of living organisms’ activity, it is expected to be found within the soil structure of
47
48 147 Lake Urmia basin which is a wet land and an agricultural zone. OM together with micro-
49
50 148 organisms participate in binding soil particles resulting in a more aggregative soil structure
51
52
53 149 which means a well-structured soil that performs better in aeration, water infiltration and
54
55 150 resistant to erosion. Hence, OM with the highest linear and nonlinear bound with FC and PWP
56
57
58 151 can be recognized for its availability and importance in Lake Urmia basin.
59 6
60
61
62
63
64
65
 152 4. Materials and Methods
1
2
3 153 Since data analysis exposed a possible failure in parametric modeling approaches (i.e. linear
4
5
6 154 and non-linear), non-parametric approaches were thought to be useful for this aim. Thereby,
7
8 155 all of the 217 sample sets including clay, sand, silt, OM, FC, and PWP field observation were
9
10
11 156 divided into two part, a training and a testing sets. For this aim, 174 observation sets out of 217
12
13 157 observations (80%) are used as the training sample sets, while 43 observation sets out of 217
14
15
16
158 observations (20%) are used for validating (testing) models. For prevention of over learning
17
18 159 and/or undefined conditions, data separation at the previous step (i.e. definition of training and
19
20 160 testing data sets) were performed randomly. Then, all of the observation data sets were
21
22
23 161 normalized using
24
25
26 𝑋𝑖 −𝑋𝑚𝑖𝑛
27 162 𝑋𝑛 = 𝑋 (1)
𝑚𝑎𝑥 −𝑋𝑚𝑖𝑛
28
29
30
31 163 while normalized values of Xn, are calculated using real observation values, Xi, and the
32
33 164 maximum (Xmax) and minimum (Xmin) observed values in order to reduce the effect of
34
35
36
165 dimensionality and outliers.
37
38
39 166 Several non-parametric models are used in order to predict the FC and PWP. For this aim,
40
41 167 Clay%, Sand%, Silt% and OM are used as independent variables whilst FC and PWP are used
42
43
44 168 in two separate sub groups as dependent variables to be predicted. For this aim, MATLAB
45
46 169 codes were used to calibrate, test, and evaluate the models, and results. First, a MLR model
47
48
49 170 used to evaluate the parametric modelling approach aligned with the parametric data analysis
50
51 171 applied previously. Later, an ANN model is developed and compared with the MLR model.
52
53
54 172 Assuming to be more applicable, ANN model was later enhanced by using hybrid sub-models
55
56 173 at its deep core by means of swarm evolutionary approaches.
57
58
59 7
60
61
62
63
64
65
 174 4.1. Multi Linear Regression (MLR)
1
2
3 175 Linear regression as a parametric approach was found to be handy in solving such problems by
4
5
6 176 many researches (Vaheddoost et al., 2016). In this method, the goal is to determine several
7
8 177 coefficients, αi s, for i = 1, …, n, and the intercept, c, to define the relationship between
9
10
11 178 dependent and independent variables using
12
13
14 179 𝑦 = ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝛼𝑖 𝑥𝑖 + 𝑐 (2)
15
16
17
18 180 where, n is the number of independent variables. Coefficients of the MLR are obtained by
19
20 181 minimizing the difference between the observed values and model outputs using methods like
21
22
23 182 ordinary least square approach (Vaheddoost et al., 2016).
24
25
26 183 4.2. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)
27
28
29
30 184 ANNs models are strong nonlinear modeling branch of science, which are able to facilitate the
31
32 185 establishment of links among input and output parameters via adequate weights and activation
33
34
35
186 functions. In this study, Matlab software is employed to implement and train a back-propagation
36
37 187 feed-forward neural network with a variety of activation functions, number of neurons, and
38
39 188 number of hidden layers (Ghorbani et al., 2017), and Multi-Layer feed-forward Perceptron
40
41
42 189 (MLP) approach is used to evaluate models in this study. For this aim, a three layered structure
43
44 190 of the MLP is used. It is also important to underline that a Levenberg–Marquardt
45
46
47 191 backpropagation algorithm was used in training stage together with a tangent and linear sigmoid
48
49 192 transfer functions in hidden and output layers, respectively. There are a lot of studies on the
50
51
52
193 application of ANN models in which some recent cases can be named as Jahani and
53
54 194 Mohammadi (2018), Emamgholizadeh et al. (2018), Moazenzadeh et al. (2018) for further
55
56 195 evaluations. Figure 4 shows a schematic view of the MLP model.
57
58
59 8
60
61
62
63
64
65
 196 [Figure 4]
1
2 197 4.3. Ant colony Algorithm (ACA)
3
4
5
6 198 Ant colony optimization algorithm is a natural artificial intelligence based on nature approach
7
8 199 inspired by real behavior of ants in nature and the collective behavior of ants (Lin et al., 2012).
9
10
11
200 These creatures are social insects which lives in colonies and behave in such a way to ensure
12
13 201 the survival of the colony. While the ants are in search for food, they search and mark their
14
15 202 environment with a special material, called pheromones, along their roots which can be traced
16
17
18 203 by other members of the colony. After a discovery of a food source, ants try to nourish and
19
20 204 carry it to the nest by choosing the best and the shortest path. Similarly, an ant optimization
21
22
23 205 algorithm is used to define the shortest path to solve the problems, e.g., the traveling salesman
24
25 206 problem (Dorigo et al., 1999), the flow shop scheduling problem (Shyu et al., 2004) and the
26
27
28 207 quadratic assignment problem (Maniezzo and Colorni, 1999). The following equations have
29
30 208 been used to implement the math of the anchor algorithm
31
32
𝑐𝑖̇𝑡 = 𝐴𝑛𝑡𝑗𝑡 + 𝑐 𝑡
33
34 209 (3)
35
36
37 210 𝑑𝑖̇𝑡 = 𝐴𝑛𝑡𝑗𝑡 + 𝑑𝑡 (4)
38
39
40
41 211 where ct is the minimum of all variables at tth iteration, 𝑑𝑡 indicates the vector including the
42
maximum of all variables at t-th iteration, 𝑐𝑖̇𝑡 is the minimum of all variables for ith ant, dit is the
43
44 212
45
46 213 maximum of all variables for ith ant, and Antjt shows the position of the selected jth ant at tth
47
48
214 iteration. The following equations are used to move the ants randomly as
49
50
51
𝑐𝑡
52 215 𝑐𝑡 = (5)
53 𝐼
54
55
56 𝑑𝑡
57 216 𝑑𝑡 = (6)
𝐼
58
59 9
60
61
62
63
64
65
 217 where I is a ratio, ct is the minimum of all variables at tth iteration, and dt indicates the vector
1
2 218 including the maximum of all variables at tth iteration. The pseudo code of the ACA used in this
3
4
5 219 study can be defined as appendix A.
6
7
8 220 An Interested reader is encouraged to see Dorigo et al. (1996), (2011), Khanna et al. (2006),
9
10
11 221 Lin et al. (2012), or Gao et al. (2013), Feller et al. for more information.
12
13
14 222 4.4. Bee Colony Algorithm (BCA)
15
16
17
18 223 In a colony of bees, tasks are classified for a colony, and each specific task to a specific
19
20 224 individual in a colony. These specialists try to reach the majority of the workforce and nectar
21
22
23
225 stored in the hive. The Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm, proposed by Karaboga in 2005
24
25 226 for real-life parameter optimization. This is an optimization method based on colony behavior
26
27 227 of the honey bee (Akay and Karaboga, 2012).
28
29
30
31 228 Nearly, the half of the colony consists of employed bees, while the other half is shared between
32
33 229 onlookers. Employed bees are responsible for exploiting the nectar sources found before and
34
35
36 230 share information with the waiting bees (onlooker bees) in the hive. Onlooker bees, wait in the
37
38 231 hive and focus on a food source to exploit based on the information shared by the employed
39
40
41 232 bees. Scout bees, either randomly or based on possible external clues search the environment
42
43 233 in order to find a new source of food depending on an internal motivation (Seeley, 1995). In
44
45
46
234 this respect, a bee performs three major behaviors. (i) It explores the environment in order to
47
48 235 find food, (ii) employed bee returns to the hive with the nectar and unloads the nectar while,
49
50 236 also they can go back to their discovered source site directly or share information about the
51
52
53 237 source by performing an exclusive dance. If the source is exhausted, bee becomes a scout and
54
55 238 starts to randomly search for a new source. (iii) Onlooker bees in the hive watch the dances of
56
57
58
59 10
60
61
62
63
64
65
 239 the profitable sources and choose a source depending on the frequency of a dance proportional
1
2 240 to the quality of the source.
3
4
5
6 241 Interested reader is encouraged to see Akay and Karaboga (2012) for more details. The pseudo
7
8 242 code of the BCA used in this study can also be find in appendix A.
9
10
11
12 243 4.5. Grey Wolf Algorithm (GWA)
13
14
15 244 Proposed by Mirjalili et al. (2014), GWA reflects the behavior of grey wolf in searching and
16
17
18 245 hunting of prey. Grey wolves lives in a group of 5-20 members on average, called pack whilst
19
20 246 four categories of wolves can be recognized in a pack namely, alpha(a), beta(b), delta(d), and
21
22
23
247 omega(x) members. Alpha is the decision maker while, beta helps alpha in his/her decisions.
24
25 248 At the third level, delta wolves’ scouts, sentinels, hunters, and caretakers for the pack while,
26
27 249 Omega wolves have a key role to make a more secure hunting so that in the event of the loss of
28
29
30 250 omega wolves, all groups must fight. In fact, Omega wolves are considered as victims and have
31
32 251 a supporting role for other members of the group.
33
34
35
36 252 The main phases of grey wolf hunting are (i) tracking, (ii) encircling the prey, and (iii) attacking
37
38 253 toward the prey. The encircling property of prey can be represented as
39
40
41
42 254 ⃗ = |𝐶 𝑋𝑝 (𝑡) − 𝑋|
𝐷 (7)
43
44
45
46 255 while
47
48
49 256 ⃗
𝑋(𝑡 + 1) = 𝑋𝑝 (𝑡) − 𝐴. 𝐷 (8)
50
51
52
53 257 𝐴 = 2𝑎𝑟1 − 𝐴 (9)
54
55
56
57 258 𝐶 = 2𝑟2 (10)
58
59 11
60
61
62
63
64
65
 259 where t indicates the current iteration, 𝐴 and 𝐶 are coefficient vectors, 𝑋𝑝 is the position vectors
1
2
3 260 of prey, and 𝑋 indicates the position vector of a grey wolf. Where components of 𝑎 are linearly
4
5 261 decreased from 2 to 0 over the course of iterations and r1 , r2 are random vectors in [0, 1].
6
7
8 262 Therefore, for
9
10
11
263 ⃗ 𝛼 = |𝐶1 𝑋𝛼 (𝑡) − 𝑋|, 𝐷
𝐷 ⃗ 𝛽 = |𝐶2 𝑋𝛽 (𝑡) − 𝑋|, 𝐷
⃗ 𝛿 = |𝐶3 𝑋𝛿 (𝑡) − 𝑋| (11)
12
13
14 264 where
15
16
17
18 265 ⃗ 𝛼 , 𝑋2 = 𝑋𝛽 − 𝐴2 . 𝐷
𝑋1 = 𝑋𝛼 − 𝐴1 . 𝐷 ⃗ 𝛽 , 𝑋3 = 𝑋𝛿 − 𝐴3 . 𝐷
⃗𝛿 (12)
19
20 266 and
21
22
23
⃗ 1 (𝑡)+𝑋
𝑋 ⃗ 2 (𝑡)+𝑋
⃗ 3 (𝑡)
24 267 𝑋(𝑡 + 1) = (13)
25 3
26
27
28 268 With this equation the positions of alphas, betas and deltas are updated and it has been assumed
29
30
31 269 that alpha is the best solution.
32
33
34 270 Interested reader is encouraged to see Sharma and Saikia (2015) and Emary et al. (2016) for
35
36
37 271 more details. The pseudo codes of GWA used in this study is also given at appendix A.
38
39
40 272 4.6. Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA)
41
42
43
44 273 Whale optimization algorithm (WOA) is introduced by Mirjalili and Lewis (2016), and is
45
46 274 inspired by hunting behavior of whale in nature, called whale bubble hunting strategy. During
47
48
275 optimization with a 50% of probability is usually taken into action between the shrinking
49
50
51 276 encircling mechanism and the spiral model relative to each other and its position in the group
52
53 277 in updating the position of whales. The WOA, is usually simple, conceptual and effective in
54
55
56 278 exploring global solutions. However, in order to improve the accuracy of this algorithm and
57
58
59 12
60
61
62
63
64
65
 279 also increase the speed of convergence, methodology expanded by Kaveh and Ghazaan (2017)
1
2 280 is applied. The pseudo codes used for the WOA in this study is given in appendix A.
3
4
5
6 281 4.6 Hybrid Models
7
8
9 282 Artificial neural network models do not require complicated calculations, but to adjust the
10
11 283 network weights and coordination of neurons when performing local convergence and
12
13
14 284 optimization of the neural network. One of the novelties of this study is to apply a new hybrid
15
16 285 ANN-WOA model in comparison with ANN-ACA, ANN-BCA, and ANN-GWA to obtain a
17
18
19 286 rapid and efficient problem solver.
20
21
22 287 As explained above, the performance of the whale optimization algorithm based on the artificial
23
24 288 neural network is such that the weight and bias for each neuron in the artificial neural network
25
26
27 289 are optimized by the whale optimization algorithm. ANN-WOA stops when the best fit between
28
29 290 artificial neural network weights and the Whale optimization algorithm is reached, or the
30
31
32 291 maximum number of repetitions occurs. This is an estimator hybrid technique that utilize both
33
34 292 artificial neural network capabilities and optimization algorithm capabilities. Previous studies
35
36
293 show that, such a hybrid technique can predict more successful results (Mirjalili and Lewis
37
38
39 294 2016; Jahani and Mohammadi 2018). The flow chart of the ANN-GWOA is shown in Figure
40
41 295 5.
42
43
44
45
296 [Figure 5]
46
47
48 297 4.7 Performance Criteria and Evaluation Methods
49
50
51
52
298 For evaluating and comparison between results of each model, several performance criteria are
53
54 299 used. Determination coefficient (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage
55
56 300 error (MAPE), mean base error (MBE), and root relative mean square error (RRMSE) are used
57
58
59 13
60
61
62
63
64
65
 301 for this aim. The goal in using determination coefficient is to evaluate the goodness of fit
1
2 302 between observation data set (test) and results of the model by means of
3
4
5
2
6 1 ∑(𝑥𝑖 −𝑥̅ )(𝑦𝑖 −𝑦̅)
7 303 𝑅 2 = (𝑛 × (𝜎𝑥 )(𝜎𝑦 )
) (14)
8
9
10
11 304 where n, is the number of data x and y are observed and estimated values and σx and σy are
12
13 305 standard deviation of the observed and estimated data.
14
15
16
17 306 Other performance criteria of RMSE, MAPE, MBE, and RRMSE respectively as
18
19
20 ∑(𝑥𝑖 −𝑦𝑖 )2
21 307 𝑅𝑀𝑆𝐸 = √ (15)
𝑛
22
23
24
1 ∑|𝑥𝑖 −𝑦𝑖 |
25 308 𝑀𝐴𝑃𝐸 = 𝑥̅ × 100 (16)
26 𝑛
27
28
29 ∑(𝑥𝑖 −𝑦𝑖 )
309 𝑀𝐵𝐸 = (17)
30 𝑛
31
32
33 1
34 √ ∑𝑛
𝑖=1(𝑥𝑖 −𝑦𝑖 )
2
𝑛
35 310 𝑅𝑅𝑀𝑆𝐸 = ∑𝑛
× 100 (18)
𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖
36
37
38
39 311 are used to select a model with the minimum types of possible bias. In addition, graphical
40
41 312 evaluation between observed and predicted data sets are used by means of scatter plots, Box-
42
43
44 313 plots, and bar charts.
45
46
47 314 5. Results and Discussion
48
49
50
51 315 Selection of input variables is a very important step in making a strong predictor. Accordingly,
52
53 316 FC and PWP showed a high degree of correlation with clay%, sand%, and silt% together with
54
55
317 OM in this study. Hence, a new hybrid model called ANN-WOA is introduced and compared
56
57
58 318 with several optimization models of ANN-ACA, ANN-BCA, and ANN-GWA together with
59 14
60
61
62
63
64
65
 319 one parametric MLR to predict FC and PWP at the basin scale. For this aim, Matlab software
1
2 320 is used to implement models and results. Feed-forward back-propagation neural networks with
3
4
5 321 Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm is employed on the ANN models whilst, sigmoid and
6
7 322 linear functions are adopted as the activation functions in hidden and output layers, respectively.
8
9
10 323 Trial and error procedure have been used to determine the number of hidden neurons, as well
11
12 324 as to obtain the most accurate model (Deo and Sahin 2015a, b; Deo et al. 2017b).
13
14
15
16
325 As explained previously, 174 data set at the training stage are used to calibrate the models and
17
18 326 each model was calibrated and used as the representative of each category.
19
20
21
22
327 In this respect, the best MLR models were obtained as
23
24
25 328 𝐹𝐶 = −5.666 + (0.308 ∗ 𝐶𝑙𝑎𝑦) + (0.295 ∗ 𝑆𝑖𝑙𝑡) + (0.158 ∗ 𝑆𝑎𝑛𝑑) + (3.212 ∗ 𝑂𝑀) (19)
26
27
28
329 𝑃𝑊𝑃 = −62.143 + (0.761 ∗ 𝐶𝑙𝑎𝑦) + (0.707 ∗ 𝑆𝑖𝑙𝑡) + (0.723 ∗ 𝑆𝑎𝑛𝑑) + (1.791 ∗ 𝑂𝑀) (20)
29
30
31
32 330 The determination coefficient of Equation 19 and 20 are respectively, 0.66 and 0.59 which are
33
34 331 mediocre results and are in concordance with Figure 2, 3 and Table 2. The best ANN model
35
36
37 332 was obtained using a three layered MLP with a tangent and linear sigmoid activation function
38
39 333 at core of hidden- and output-layers respectively. Up to 1000 iteration is considered for
40
41
42 334 optimization whilst the optimum number of neurons were selected by try and error using adding
43
44 335 up technique at up to 30 neurons in total. Similarly, hybrid ANN-swarm models were optimized
45
46
47 336 and calibrated with specific characteristics given in Table 3. The comparative implementation
48
49 337 of the algorithms used for the calibration of the models used in this study are shown in Table 4.
50
51
52
53
338 [Table 3] [Table 4]
54
55
56
57
58
59 15
60
61
62
63
64
65
 339 Results in Table 4 shows that the Whale Optimization algorithm has the best performance. It is
1
2 340 not trapped in the local optimum, nor sensitive to the propagated noise, whilst it has a higher
3
4
5 341 accuracy in comparison with other models. In contrary, WOA shows longer run time compared
6
7 342 to the other algorithms, which is the major shortcoming of this model compared to the others.
8
9
10 343 Results also show that the GWA is less accurate than the WOA due to its sensitivity to threshold
11
12 344 parameters, and this issue makes it the second best algorithms to be preferred. The BCA has
13
14
15
345 shorter run time in comparison with other algorithms; however, obtained results for it could not
16
17 346 overcome those results obtained by WOA which puts it in the third rank.
18
19
20 347 Consequently, Table 5 shows the results of all models obtained for MLR, ANN, ANN-ACA,
21
22
23 348 ANN-BCA, ANN-GWA, and ANN-WOA in training and testing stage for FC. Based on the
24
25 349 Table 5, ANN models are superior to regression model, while the hybrid models are superior
26
27
28 350 to ANN. In this respect, the best results are achieved by ANN-WOA and ANN-GWA, since the
29
30 351 core of these algorithms help models in faster and more accurate convergence and preventing
31
32
33 352 in trapping in local extremums.
34
35
36 353 [Table 5]
37
38
39
40 354 The scatter plot of all models at confidence level of 95% and 90% are given in Figure 6. Results
41
42 355 shows that the best model with lower discrepancy and higher likelihood is WOA in predicting
43
44
45
356 FC (Figure 6e). There are less values out of the confidence limit and points are located almost
46
47 357 on the perfect fit line. In general, hybrid-ANN models perform better than ANN and regression
48
49 358 models since the core of the models were trained more satisfactorily compared to the classical
50
51
52 359 ANN models.
53
54
55 360 [Figure 6]
56
57
58
59 16
60
61
62
63
64
65
 361 Similar results are obtained in predicting PWP (Table 6, and Figure 7). It is obvious that the
1
2 362 ANN-WOA as the best and ANN-GWA as the second best models, represents superior results
3
4
5 363 by means of goodness of fit and lowest bias. The main reason for obtaining this results is that,
6
7 364 WOA proves to be more efficient in finding optimal local and global results than other
8
9
10 365 algorithms. In fact, it can find the right solutions in the near optimal solution. This feature is
11
12 366 controlled by the motion of the whales according to the value of the objective function that is
13
14
15
367 provided near the optimal solution. The advantages of such deterministic algorithm are
16
17 368 efficiency and small number of iterations required in solving the problem.
18
19
20 369 [Table 6] [Figure 7]
21
22
23 370 In general, all models show good performances which means, selected models are doing their
24
25 371 best in recognizing the pattern of the relationship between selected variables with FC and PWP.
26
27
28 372 Hence, it is concluded that the hybrid ANN models of GWA and WOA has upper hands
29
30 373 between all selected models which make them more satisfactory in application. Since ANN-
31
32
374 GWA and ANN-WOA are nonparametric models, it is important to update the core algorithm
33
34
35 375 of the models overly to make sure in obtaining the best performance each time.
36
37
38 376 Further on obtained results, Figure 8 shows the Box Plot of observed and predicted values of
39
40
41 377 the ANN, ANN-ACA, ANN-BCA, ANN-GWA, ANN-WOA, and MLR methods at test stage.
42
43 378 This Box-plot projects the moments of the distribution of the FC and PWP in comparison with
44
45
46 379 the observed values. The highest similarity with the observed values belongs to the results
47
48 380 obtained by ANN-WOA, in which minimum, maximum, 25% range, and the 75% range of the
49
50
51 381 observation was simulated by the ANN-WOA. Hence, ANN-WOA can be recognized by its
52
53 382 superior results in predicting FC and PWP. Figure 8, also shows that the MLR, ANN-BCA, and
54
55 383 ANN-GWA are the worst models in prediction of the properties of the distribution of observed
56
57
58
59 17
60
61
62
63
64
65
 384 FC values, whilst the MLR and the ANN-ACA can be recognized as the worst models in
1
2 385 defining the properties of distribution associated with PWP values.
3
4
5
6 386 [Figure 8]
7
8 387 Further for the investigation of the moments of the distribution, projected in Figure 8, the shape
9
10
11
388 of the histogram of the produced values are compare (Figure 9-10). These results also confirm
12
13 389 the results obtained above, in which the histogram of the results obtained by ANN-WOA shows
14
15 390 the most similarities with the observation sets. For both FC (in Figure 9) and PWP (in Figure
16
17
18 391 10), most of the intervals are provided with values while which other models shows weakness
19
20 392 in predicting some values located at certain intervals. In addition, histograms obtained from the
21
22
23 393 predicted results of the FC and PWP are more likely to be distributed with a Gaussian pattern.
24
25
26 394 [Figure 9] [Figure 10]
27
28
29
395
30
31 396
32
33 397 6. Conclusion
34
35
36
37
398 In this study a new method is introduced, where the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is
38
39 399 integrated with the Whale Optimize Algorithm (WOA), as an optimizer tool to be evaluated in
40
41 400 predicating PWP and FC at basin scale. In this respect, data driven from Lake Urmia basin at
42
43
44 401 north west of Iran is used to confirm the applicability of the models. Lake Urmia and its closed
45
46 402 basin are one of the most vulnerable ecosystems of the world which have driven a lot of
47
48
49 403 attention in the last decade. The rapid decline in lake water level have been accused by a lot of
50
51 404 governmental and climatic events. Since the development in the farmlands are listed as the main
52
53
54 405 drivers of the massive lake area degradation, FC and PWP of the soil are examined to be
55
56 406 predicted indirectly for decision makers and scientists. For this aim, classical MLR and ANN
57
58
59 18
60
61
62
63
64
65
 407 models together with hybrid ANN-ACA, ANN-BCA, ANN-GWA, and ANN-WOA are used
1
2 408 to define the most practical algorithm to be used in predicting FC and PWP. For this aim, clay%,
3
4
5 409 sand%, silt% and OM of the soil samples are used as the independent variables of the models
6
7 410 in predicting the amount of FC and PWP as dependent variables. It is found that the OM has
8
9
10 411 the highest linear and non-linear bound with the dependent variables, i.e. FC and PWP. This
11
12 412 depicts the importance of OM at basin scale which should be detailed in further studies. Later,
13
14
15
413 normalized data sets were used in two separate prats for modeling procedure, training and
16
17 414 testing. Results of these models were evaluated using several performance criteria whilst the
18
19 415 best and second best models were ANN-WOA and ANN-GWA respectively. The interpretation
20
21
22 416 of these results assumed to be due to fast and proper convergence of core in ANN models
23
24 417 together with finding the optimum solution while other models like ANN happen to trap in local
25
26
27 418 extremums.
28
29
30 419 Generally, the results of this study proved that the WOA is a useful add-on tool for enhancing
31
32
33 420 the forecasting accuracy of ANN models in prediction of PWP and FC. Given the high accuracy
34
35 421 of the developed hybrid model over the applied standalone and hybrid methods, applying the
36
37
38
422 hybrid ANN-WOA model for short term forecasting of other hydrological variables (e.g., soil
39
40 423 parameters, evaporation, ground water levels, rainfall, evaporation, flood and drought
41
42 424 forecasting) is a useful endeavor for future studies. The broader application is warranted, noting
43
44
45 425 but the effectiveness of the newly evaluated ANN-WOA model, and hence it must be explored
46
47 426 for soil and water applications.
48
49
50
51 427 References
52
53
54 428 Akay, B., Karaboga, D. 2012. A modified artificial bee colony algorithm for real-parameter
55 429 optimization. Information sciences, 192, 120-142.
56
430 Bishop, T.F.A., McBratney, A.B., 2001. A comparison of prediction methods for the creation of field-extent soil
57
431 property maps. Geoderma. 103:149–160.
58
59 19
60
61
62
63
64
65
 432 Deo RC, S¸ Sahin M (2015a) Application of the artificial neural network model for prediction of monthly
1 433 standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index using hydrometeorological parameters and climate
2 434 indices in eastern Australia. Atmos Res 161–162:65–81
3
4
435 Deo RC, S¸ Sahin M (2015b) Application of the extreme learning machine algorithm for the prediction of monthly
5
436 effective drought index in eastern Australia. Atmos Res 153:512–525
6 437 Deo RC, S¸ Sahin M (2016) An extreme learning machine model for the simulation of monthly mean streamflow
7 438 water level in eastern Queensland. Environ Monit Assess. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s10661-016-5094-9
8
9 439 Deo RC, Kisi O, Singh VP (2017a) Drought forecasting in eastern Australia using multivariate adaptive regression
10 440 spline, least square support vector machine and M5Tree model. Atmos Res 184:149–175
11
12 441 Deo, R. C., Ghorbani, M. A., Samadianfard, S., Maraseni, T., Bilgili, M., Biazar, M. (2018). Multi-layer
13 442 perceptron hybrid model integrated with the firefly optimizer algorithm for windspeed prediction of
14 443 target site using a limited set of neighboring reference station data. Renewable energy, 116, 309-
15 444 323.
16
445 Deo RC, Tiwari MK, Adamowski JF, Quilty MJ (2017b) Forecasting effective drought index using a wavelet
17
446 extreme learning machine (W-ELM) model. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31(5):1211–1240
18
19 447 Dorigo, M., Maniezzo, V., Colorni, A., 1996. Ant system: optimization by a colony of cooperating agents. IEEE
20 448 Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part B (Cybernetics), 26(1), 29-41.
21
22 449 Dorigo, M., Caro, G. D., Gambardella, L. M., 1999. Ant algorithms for discrete optimization. Artificial life, 5(2),
23 450 137-172.
24
25 451 Emamgholizadeh, S., Esmaeilbeiki, F., Mohammadi, B., zarehaghi, D., marofpoor, I., Rezaei, H. 2018. Estimation
26 452 of the organic carbon content by the pattern recognition method. Communications in Soil Science and Plant
27 453 Analysis, 49(14), 1-12.
28 454 Emary, E., Zawbaa, H. M., Hassanien, A. E., 2016. Binary grey wolf optimization approaches for feature selection.
29 455 Neurocomputing, 172, 371-381.
30
31 456 Feller, E., Rilling, L., Morin, C., 2011. Energy-aware ant colony based workload placement in clouds. In
32 457 Proceedings of the 2011 IEEE/ACM 12th International Conference on Grid Computing, IEEE Computer
33 458 Society, 26-33.
34
35 459 Gao, Y., Guan, H., Qi, Z., Hou, Y., Liu, L., 2013. A multi-objective ant colony system algorithm for virtual
36 460 machine placement in cloud computing. Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 79(8), 1230-1242.
37
38 461 Gee, G. W., Bauder, J. W., 1986. Particle-size analysis. Soil Science Society of America, American Society of
39 462 Agronomy, 383-411.
40 463 Ghorbani, M. A., Deo, R. C., Karimi, V., Kashani, M. H., Ghorbani, S. 2018. Design and implementation of a
41 464 hybrid MLP-GSA model with multi-layer perceptron-gravitational search algorithm for monthly lake water
42 465 level forecasting. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 33(1), 125-147
43
44 466 Ghorbani, M. A., Deo, R. C., Yaseen, Z. M., Kashani, M. H., Mohammadi, B., 2017. Pan evaporation prediction
45 467 using a hybrid multilayer perceptron-firefly algorithm (MLP-FFA) model: case study in North Iran. Theoretical
46 468 and Applied Climatology, 133(3-4), 1119-1131.
47
48 469 Gocic, M., Motamedi, S., Shamshirband, S., Petković, D., Ch, S., Hashim, R., Arif, M., 2015. Soft computing
49 470 approaches for forecasting reference evapotranspiration. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 113, 164-
50 471 173.
51
52 472 Gulser, C., Candemir, F., 2014. Using soil moisture constants and physical properties to predict saturated hydraulic
53 473 conductivity. Eurasian Journal of Soil Science (EJSS), 3(1), 77-81.
54 474 Jafarnejadi, A. R., Abbssayyad, G.H., Arshad, R.R., Davami, A., 2012. Pedotransfer functions development for
55 475 field capacity and permanent wilting points using artificial neural networks and regression models.
56 476 International Journal of agriculture, 2, 1079-1084.
57
58
59 20
60
61
62
63
64
65
 477 Jafarzadeh, A. A., Pal, M., Servati, M., FazeliFard, M. H., Ghorbani, M. A., 2016. Comparative analysis of support
1 478 vector machine and artificial neural network models for soil cation exchange capacity prediction. International
2 479 journal of environmental science and technology, 13(1), 87-96.
3
4
480 Jahani, B, Mohammadi B (2018) A comparison between the application of empirical and ANN methods for
5
481 estimation of daily global solar radiation in Iran. Theor Appl Climatol (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-
6
482 018-2666-3
7 483 Kaveh, A., Ghazaan, M. I., 2017. Enhanced whale optimization algorithm for sizing optimization of skeletal
8 484 structures. Mechanics Based Design of Structures and Machines, 45(3), 345-362.
9
10 485 Keshavarzi, A., Sarmadian, F., Sadeghnejad, M., Pezeshki, P., 2010. Developing pedotransfer functions for
11 486 estimating some soil properties using artificial neural network and multivariate regression approaches.
12 487 Proenvironment Promediu, 3(6), 322–330.
13
14 488 Keshavarzi, A., Sarmadian, F., Zolfaghari, A. A., Pezeshki, P., 2012. Estimating water content at field capacity
15 489 and permanent wilting point using non-parametric K-NN algorithm. Int. J. Agric. Res, 7, 166-168.
16
490 Khanna, G., Beaty, K., Kar, G., Kochut, A., 2006. Application performance management in virtualized server
17
491 environments. In Network Operations and Management Symposium, 10th IEEE/IFIP, 373-381.
18
19 492 Khosla, R., Fleming, K., Delgado, J.A., Shaver, T., Westfall, D.G., 2002. Use of site-specific management zones
20 493 to improve nitrogen management for precision agriculture. J Soil Water Conserv. 57:513–518.
21
22 494 Lin, C., Wu, G., Xia, F., Li, M., Yao, L., Pei, Z., 2012. Energy efficient ant colony algorithms for data aggregation
23 495 in wireless sensor networks. Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 78(6), 1686-1702.
24
25 496 Liu, D., Wang, Z., Zhang, B., Song, K., Li, X., Li, J., Li, F., Duan, H., 2006. Spatial distribution of soil organic
26 497 carbon analysis of related factors in cropland of the black soil region, Northeast China. Agric Ecosystems
27 498 Environ. 113:73–81.
28 499 Maniezzo, V., Colorni, A., 1999. The ant system applied to the quadratic assignment problem. IEEE Transactions
29 500 on Knowledge & Data Engineering, (5), 769-778.
30
31 501 Merdun, H., Cinar, O., Meral, R., & Apan, M., 2006. Comparison of artificial neural network and regression
32 502 pedotransfer functions for prediction of soil water retention and saturated hydraulic conductivity. Soil and
33 503 Tillage Research, 90(1-2), 108-116.
34
35 504 Minasny, B., McBratney, A., 2002. The neuro-m method for fitting neural network parametric pedotransfer
36 505 functions. Soil Science Society of America Journal, 66(2), 352-361.
37
38 506 Mirjalili, S., Mirjalili, S. M., Lewis, A., 2014. Grey wolf optimizer. Advances in engineering software, 69, 46-61.
39 507 Mirjalili, S., Lewis, A., 2016. The whale optimization algorithm. Advances in Engineering Software, 95, 51-67.
40
41 508 Moazenzadeh, R., Mohammadi, B., Shamshirband, S., Chau, K.W., 2018. Coupling a firefly algorithm with
42 509 support vector regression to predict evaporation in northern Iran. Engineering Applications of Computational
43 510 Fluid Mechanics, 12(1), 584-597.
44
45 511 Mohanty, M., Sinha, N. K., Painuli, D. K., Bandyopadhyay, K. K., Hati, K. M., Reddy, K. S., Chaudhary, R. S.,
46 512 2015. Modelling soil water contents at field capacity and permanent wilting point using artificial neural
47 513 network for Indian soils. National Academy Science Letters, 38(5), 373-377.
48
49 514 Mzuku, M., Khosla, R., Reich, R., Inman, D., Smith, F., MacDonald, L., 2005. Spatial variability of measured soil
50 515 properties across site-specific management zones. Soil Sci Soc Am J. 69:1572–1579.
51 516 Nelson, D. W., Sommers, L., 1982. Total carbon, organic carbon, and organic matter 1. Methods of soil analysis.
52 517 Part 2. Chemical and microbiological properties, (methodsofsoilan2), 539-579.
53
54 518 Pachepsky, Y. A., Rawls, W. J., 2003. Soil structure and pedotransfer functions. Eur J Soil Sci., 54 (3), 443- 452.
55
56 519 Pengra, B., 2012. The drying of Iran’s Lake Urmia and its environmental consequences. UNEP-GRID, Sioux Falls,
57 520 UNEP Global Environmental Alert Service (GEAS). Environmental Development, 2(1), 128-137.
58
59 21
60
61
62
63
64
65
 521 Rab, M. A., Chandra, S., Fisher, P. D., Robinson, N. J., Kitching, M., Aumann, C. D., Imhof, M., 2011. Modelling
1 522 and prediction of soil water contents at field capacity and permanent wilting point of dryland cropping soils.
2 523 Soil Research, 49(5), 389-407.
3
4
524 Romano, N., Hopmans, J. W., Dane, J. H., 2002. Suction table. In'Methods of Soil Analysis, Part 4 Physical
5
525 Methods'. Soil Science Society of America: Madison, 692–698.
6 526 Sarmadian, F., Taghizadeh Mehrjardi, R., 2008. Modeling of some soil properties using artificial neural network
7 527 and multivariate regression in Gorgan Province, North of Iran. Global Journal of Environmental Research,
8 528 2(1), 30-35.
9
10 529 Sarmadian, F., Taghizadeh, M.R., Akbarzadeh, A., 2009. Optimization of pedotransfer functions using an artificial
11 530 neural network. Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 3(1), 323-329.
12
13 531 Seeley, T. D., 2009. The wisdom of the hive: the social physiology of honey bee colonies. Harvard University
14 532 Press.
15 533 Sharma, Y., Saikia, L. C., 2015. Automatic generation control of a multi-area ST–Thermal power system using
16
534 Grey Wolf Optimizer algorithm based classical controllers. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy
17
535 Systems, 73, 853-862.
18
19 536 Shyu, S. J., Lin, B. M., Yin, P. Y., 2004. Application of ant colony optimization for no-wait flowshop scheduling
20 537 problem to minimize the total completion time. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 47(2-3), 181-193.
21
22 538 Tuncay, T., Baskan, O., Bayramin, I., Dengız, O., Kilic, S., 2018. Geostatistical approach as a tool for estimation
23 539 of field capacity and permanent wilting point in semi-arid terrestrial ecosystem. Archives of Agronomy and
24 540 Soil Science, 64(9), 1240-1253.
25
26 541 UNESCO (2012). UNESCO-MAB Biosphere Reserves Directory. 24 January 24, 2012 at:
27 542 http://www.unesco.org/mabdb/br/brdir/directory/biores.asp?mode=gen&code=IRA+07.
28 543 Vaheddoost, B., Aksoy, H. 2018. Interaction of groundwater with Lake Urmia in Iran. Hydrological Processes,
29 544 32(21), 3283-3295.
30
31 545 Vaheddoost, B., Aksoy, H., Abghari, H., 2016. Prediction of water level using monthly lagged data in Lake Urmia,
32 546 Iran. Water resources management, 30(13), 4951-4967.
33
34 547 Vaheddoost B., Aksoy H., 2017. Structural Characteristics of Annual Precipitation in Lake Urmia Basin.
35 548 Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 128(3): 919-932.
36
37 549 Veihmeyer, F. J., Hendrickson, A. H., 1949. Methods of measuring field capacity and permanent wilting
38 550 percentage of soils. Soil science, 68(1), 75-94.
39 551 Wosten, J.H.M., Pachepsky, Y.A., Rawls, W.J., 2001. Pedotransfer functions: bridging the gap between available
40 552 basic soil data and missing soil hydraulic characteristics. Journal of Hydrology, 251(3-4), 123-150.
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59 22
60
61
62
63
64
65
Tables Click here to access/download;Table;tables.docx

553 Tables

554 Table 1: Statistical characteristics of variables

Standard
Variable Mean Median Mode CV Kurtosis Skewness Max. Min.
Deviation
Clay (%) 14.45 9.25 6.67 13.55 0.93 3.49 1.52 1.09 65.60
Sand (%) 45.53 51.75 64.50 18.03 0.39 2.21 -0.48 90.00 5.90
Silt (%) 40.04 37.80 59.20 13.12 0.32 3.30 0.24 79.50 2.50
OM (%) 4.27 3.61 3.35 2.89 0.67 4.68 1.42 13.07 0.17
FC 31.52 28.74 40.12 10.83 0.34 2.61 0.40 57.78 6.83
PWP 17.74 18.10 21.23 6.69 0.37 2.52 0.04 34.72 1.91

555

23
556 Table 2: Correlation matrix of variables
Clay Silt Sand OM FC PWP
Clay 1.00 -0.09 -0.69 -0.33 -0.11 -0.19
Silt 1.00 -0.66 -0.14 0.03 -0.14
Sand 1.00 0.35 0.07 0.25
OM 1.00 0.77 0.75
FC 1.00 0.81
PWP 1.00

557

24
558 Table 3: Parameters of hybrid swarm-ANN models in calibration of models
Model Symbol Quantity Value
ACA MaxIt Maximum Number of Iterations 500
nAnt Number of Ants (Population Size) 25
tau0 Initial Pheromone 10
alpha Pheromone Exponential Weight 0.30
beta Heuristic Exponential Weight 0.02
rho Evaporation Rate 0.10
BCA MaxIt Maximum Number of Iterations 500
nPop0 Population Size (Colony Size) 30
nOnlooker Number of Onlooker Bees 30
nVar Number of Decision Variables 5
VarMin Decision Variables Lower Bound -10
VarMax Decision Variables Upper Bound 10
a Acceleration Coefficient Upper Bound 1
GWO MaxIt Maximum Number of Iterations 500
nPop0 Number of initial population 15
A best search agent 0.2-1
B second best search agent 0.2-1
T third best search agent 0.2-1
WOA MaxIt Maximum Number of Iterations 500
nPop0 Number of whales 15
Pi min minimum limit for generating unit 2
r total losses in MW 0.30
Mutation rate total load demand in MW 0.05
A up coefficient vector 0.20
C down coefficient vector 0.15

559

25
560 Table 4: Compare the characteristics of the algorithms used
Trapped in Sensitivity
Sensitivity Results Sensitivity to Run
Algorithm local to threshold
to noise accuracy extremum values time
optimum parameters
ACA Yes Sensitive Yes Medium Sensitive Medium
BCA Yes Sensitive No Medium Sensitive Short
GWA No Handled Yes High Handled Long

561

26
562 Table 5: Results of the best models in predicting FC
Phase Model RMSE(%) MAPE(%) MBE(%) R2 RRMSE(%)
ANN 5.06 15.26 -0.17 0.79 16.05
ANN-ACA 4.51 14.30 -0.79 0.84 14.31
Train
ANN-BCA 4.10 10.89 -0.07 0.86 12.99
ANN-GWA 3.08 7.33 0.92 0.93 9.78
ANN-WOA 2.55 6.55 0.14 0.94 8.09
MLR 6.52 19.97 -0.14 0.64 20.68
ANN 5.54 15.17 1.15 0.72 17.58
ANN-ACA 4.68 11.99 0.81 0.80 14.87
Test
ANN-BCA 4.36 14.70 -0.75 0.82 13.85
ANN-GWA 3.57 9.82 0.84 0.91 11.33
ANN-WOA 2.87 9.24 -0.31 0.92 9.11
MLR 5.95 17.85 0.562 0.66 18.87

563

27
564 Table 6: Results of the best models in estimating predicting PWP

Phase Model RMSE(%) MAE(%) MAPE(%) MBE(%) R2 RRMSE(%)

ANN 3.20 2.46 18.53 0.051 0.77 18.06
ANN-ACA 2.58 2.06 15.01 -1.29 0.90 14.57
Train
ANN-BCA 2.16 1.66 11.63 -0.22 0.90 12.17
ANN-GWA 1.90 1.36 8.14 -0.74 0.94 10.74
ANN-WOA 1.61 1.17 8.30 0.03 0.94 9.10
MLR 4.31 3.47 28.14 -0.19 0.59 24.30
ANN 3.52 2.82 19.00 1.21 0.73 19.81
Test ANN-ACA 3.07 1.05 25.71 0.99 0.87 17.32
ANN-BCA 2.50 0.68 21.37 -0.38 0.85 14.03
ANN-GWA 2.11 0.71 14.94 0.10 0.89 11.88
ANN-WOA 1.78 0.67 15.92 -0.20 0.92 10.02
MLR 4.41 3.50 33.24 0.76 0.53 24.87

565

28
Figures Click here to access/download;Figure;figures.docx

566 Figures

567
568 Figure 1: study area located of the Lake Urmia basin and field samples used in this study
569

29
570

571 Figure 2: Relationship between clay, silt, sand, and OM in comparison with FC

30
572
573
574 Figure 3: Relationship between clay, silt, sand, and OM in comparison with PWP

31
575

576 Figure 4: A structure of the artificial neural network (typical multi-layer perceptron) model

32
577

578 Figure 5: Flow chart of the ANN-WOA model (Mirjalili and Lewis 2016)

33
579
580 Figure 6: Scatter plot of the best models of (a) ANN, (b) ANN-ACA, (c) ANN-BCA, (d)
581 ANN-GWA, (e) ANN-WOA, and (f) MLR in predicting FC
582

34
583
584 Figure 7: Scatter plot of the best models of (a) ANN, (b) ANN-ACA, (c) ANN-BCA, (d)
585 ANN-GWA, (e) ANN-WOA, and (f) MLR in predicting PWP

35
586

587 Figure 8: Box-plot of the comparison of the moments of the distribution of predicted values
588 of (a) FC and (b) PWP compared to the observation values

36
589

590 Figure 9: Histogram plot for analysis prediction FC for all models

591

37
592

593 Figure 10: Histogram plot for analysis prediction PWP for all models

38
Appendix A

Click here to access/download

Supplementary Material
Appenix A.docx
iThenticate

Click here to access/download

Supplementary Material
iThenticate.pdf