BCG Covid India Post Analysis

COVID-19
Impact in India -
Fact Pack
Facts & figures showcasing COVID-19
impact in India across 50+ indicators
Version: 28 July 2020

COVID-19
Impact in India – Fact Pack
Objectives of this document
COVID-19 is a global Imperative to assess the COVID-19 impact across
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 28 July 2020.
societal crisis dimensions for pro-active decision making
We at BCG believe that the COVID-19 outbreak is The COVID-19 outbreak has led to unprecedented
first and foremost a societal crisis, threatening lives situations along all fronts. Four months through the
and the wellbeing of our global community. Society lockdown period in India, businesses have adapted to
now, more than ever, needs to collaborate to protect these uncertainties. In order to make decisions in this
people's lives and health, manage mid-term continuously evolving scenario, it is important to decode
implications and search for lasting solutions. the COVID-19 impact across its chain of effect:
Epidemiological > Public Policy > Social > Economic
This document presents facts & figures across 50+
indicators observed in the last 6 months in India,
focusing on the economic impact trends observed.
1
Source: BCG
COVID-19 Impact in India - Executive Summary
India: COVID-19 update
• India is the now the 3rd most affected country (in terms of number of confirmed COVID-19 cases) after US & Brazil
• As of 27 Jul, India has 1.5Mn confirmed cases with ~370 active cases per million & test positivity rate of 9%; large variation across states
Trends across key economic indicators
• Industrial Activity: Signs of recovery in industrial activity post relaxations, as seen in uptick in power consumption (YoY gap declined to 4% post Unlock
2.0 vs. 25% in Lockdown 1.0 & 2.0), fuel consumption ( Jun consumption reached 88% of Jan level) and Index of Industrial Production vs. Apr lows
• Trade: Services trade less impacted as compared to merchandize trade in peak lockdown period; stronger recovery recorded in merchandize exports vs.
imports in Jun (resulting in goods trade surplus of $790 Mn); muted recovery in services trade in May-Jun (YoY decline level almost same as Apr)
• Logistics: Recovery seen in domestic logistics - E-way bills, FASTag transactions & railway freight, coming back to almost 80% of Jan volume in Jun;
relatively slower recovery in air freight (May vol. at 34% of Jan vol.) & JNPT container traffic (limited uptick since Apr; at ~67% of Jan level in Apr-May-Jun)
• Financial Services: Steady growth in aggregate bank deposits in Jun, whereas slight decline in YoY growth in aggregate bank credit; Marginal change in
share of bank credit across sectors & industries; Faster recovery in volume of NPCI retail transactions vs. value, indicating increase in small purchases
• Sector-wise Impact: Relatively less impact observed in Pharma & Fertilizer sales; Signs of recovery in Steel, Cement and Auto, however gap still exists
from pre-COVID levels; Recovery signs in both Life and non-Life Insurance - positive YoY growth in non-Life Insurance in Jun
• Macroeconomic Indicators: India’s fiscal deficit reached 58.6% of budgeted estimate within 2 months of FY21; GST collections recovered to 82% of Jan
level in Jun; MGNREGA job demand observed a steep rise (45% in May, 71% in Jun, YoY), highest in last 7 yrs. after lakhs of workers returned to villages
• Sentiment: GDP growth forecasts revised downwards over last 4 months – 10-14 pp drop from pre-COVID forecasts as per latest analyst reports
Source: MoHFW, POSOCO, MOSPI, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, RBI, GST Network, NPCI, NETC, Ministry of Railways, AAI, JNPT, AIOCD, mFMS, Joint Plant Committee, 2
Ministry of Steel, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, SIAM, CMIE, IRDAI, Ministry of Finance, GST Council, Ministry of Rural Development, Analyst reports, BCG analysis
Global snapshot: ~16.5M cases across 185 countries, slowing down to GLOBAL PANDEMIC
a case-doubling rate of 42 days2 PROGRESSION
Data as of 27 Jul
Russia
UK 27th 27th 27th 27th
France Apr'20 May'20 Jun'20 Jul'20
USA Spain Italy China Japan
India
8
23 36 39 18
42
days days days days
days
Brazil # of days of doubling2 of cases globally
South
Africa
3.0M 5.7M 10.0M 16.5M
Confirmed cases per million Total # of confirmed cases

< 500 500 – 2,000 2,000 – 5,000 5,000+
9.6M
873k 2.3M 5.1M
185 16.5M 654k

55 (41%) (51%)
(58%)
67
(29%)
[∆2%]4 [∆1%]4
Countries with cases3 Confirmed cases globally Fatalities globally Total # of recoveries1 (as % of total cases)
Note: Continued cases and fatalities are subject to different testing, propensity, reporting standards and hence are imperfect measures
1. Refers to total reported recoveries as a percentage of total reported infections (cases); 2. No. of doubling days based on 7-day CAGR; 3. Basis Johns Hopkins CSSE; 4.Daily growth rate 3
basis 7-day CAGR
Source: Johns Hopkins CSSE, Our world in data, WHO situation reports, BCG analysis
Daily new cases still increasing globally; however, share of cases across GLOBAL PANDEMIC
PROGRESSION
continents has changed significantly
Data as of 27 Jul
Countries with
highest # of Confirmed Active Daily new Test
Daily new cases (seven-day rolling average) confirmed total cases cases per cases per case positivity
(in descending order) million million growth5 rate6
280,000
USA 12,791 8,658 -0.2% 8%
240,000
Brazil7 11,381 2,390 4.6% 67%
200,000 South
America
India 1,100 370 4.1% 9%
160,000
North
America Russia 5,567 1,378 -1.1% 3%
120,000
Europe South Africa 7,510 2,875 -1.2% 15%
80,000
Asia1
40,000 Mexico7 3,029 370 0.6% 43%
Africa
0 Peru7 11,670 2,995 1.9% 17%
Mar Apr May June Last 7 days4
Average daily new Chile 18,089 983 -1.0% 23%
cases in the 17k 76k 89k 136k 241k
month2
Spain 6,969 2,002 9.7% 6%
Month on month
growth rate of 343% 17% 47% 56% UK8 4,411 NA -1.6% 3%
daily new cases3
1. Includes Middle East & Oceania; 2. Calculated as monthly average of daily new cases except in for the last 7 days; 3. Calculated as growth in month’s average as compared to previous
month; 4. Average daily case is 7-day average and growth rate for the week is calculated basis last 7-day average as compared to 7-day average of equivalent week in Jun;
5. Daily new case is 7-day average of new cases and growth rate is 7-day CAGR rate; 6. Tests positivity rate refers to number of tests that are positive to the total tests conducted
4
7. Tests data as per last available data; 8. UK does not report number of active cases
Source: Johns Hopkins CSSE, Our World in Data; MoHFW, BCG analysis
50+ high frequency indicators assessed to observe the COVID-19 impact in India
in the last few months
Epidemiological Economic
Industrial Activity Financial Services Macro-economic Indicators
1 State-level Indicators 10 Power Consumption 21 Aggregate Bank Deposits 31 Govt. Revenue & Expenditure
(MoHFW/covid19india.org—daily) (POSOCO—daily) (RBI—fortnightly) (Ministry of Finance, CGA—monthly)
2 Disease Progression 11 Fuel Consumption 32 GST Collections
(MoHFW/covid19india.org—daily) (PPAC—monthly) 22 Aggregate Bank Credit (GST Council—monthly)
(RBI—fortnightly)
12 Index of Industrial Production 33 Govt. Tenders Volume & Value
Public Policy (MoSPI—monthly) (Projects Today database—ad-hoc)
23 Retail Transactions (incl. UPI)
13 Index of Core Industries (NPCI—monthly) 34 MGNREGA Employment Trend
(Ministry of Comm. & Industry—monthly) (Ministry of Rural Development—monthly)
3 Fiscal & Monetary Relief Measures
35 Employment Indicators
(PIB, Ministry of Finance, RBI—ad-hoc) Trade Sector-wise Impact (EPFO, Naukri.com—monthly)
4 RBI Policy Measures 14 Import-Export (Merchandize) 24 Steel Consumption 36 Inflation Indices (CPI & WPI)
(RBI—monthly) (Ministry of Comm. & Industry—monthly) (JPC, Ministry of Steel—monthly) (MOSPI, Office of Economic Advisor—monthly)
Social 15 Import-Export (Services) 25 Cement Production Sentiment

(RBI—monthly) (Ministry of Comm. & Industry—monthly)
37 Purchasing Managers Index
5 Air Quality Index Logistics 26 Auto Sales (IHS Markit—monthly)
(CPCB—daily) (SIAM—monthly) 38 NIFTY Sectoral Indices
16 Railway Freight Traffic
(Bloomberg—daily)
6 Mobility Levels (Ministry of Railways—monthly) 27 Fertilizer Sales
(mSMF—monthly) 39 Stock Market Transactions
(Google—daily) 17 E-Way Bill Volume (NSE, BSE—daily)
(GST Network—monthly)
7 TV & Smartphone Usage 28 Pharmaceutical Sales 40 India Volatility Index
(BARC, Nielsen—weekly) 18 FASTag Transactions (AIOCD—monthly) (NSE—daily)
(NPCI—monthly)
Chemical Production 41 AUM in Mutual Funds
8 App Downloads & Usage 19 Air Freight Traffic 29
(AMFI—monthly)
(App Annie—daily) (American Chemistry Council—monthly)
(Airport Authority of India—monthly) 42 Foreign Equity Inflow
9 Consumer Sentiment Survey 20 JNPT Container Traffic 30 Insurance Gross Premium (Bloomberg—daily)
(CMIE—weekly) (JNPT—monthly) (IRDAI—monthly) 43 PE/VC Investments
(Venture Intelligence—monthly)
44 GDP Forecasts 5
Source: BCG analysis (Rating Agencies—ad-hoc)
1 India: COVID-19 update
Trends across key economic
2
indicators in last 6 months
3
Material for further reading
Public policy update, Social indicators
1
India snapshot: COVID-19 in India has crossed 1.5M cases EPIDEMIOLOGICAL
DISEASE
~1,100 total cases per mn population (~370 active cases per mn) with a testing rate of ~12,900 per mn PROGRESSION
Data as of 27 Jul Ladakh

817 7%
Jammu & Kashmir
Disease spread in India 563 3% Himachal Pradesh
140 2%
Meghalaya
162
Punjab 2%
146 3% Uttarakhand
230 4%
1.5M Total no. of cases1 Chandigarh
277 7%
Sikkim
551
Arunachal Pradesh
422 2%
Haryana
2%
237 6%
Delhi
Uttar Assam
588 14%
Rajasthan Pradesh 227 4%
110 Bihar
497k Active cases 125
4% 108 Nagaland
3% 9% 360 4%
Jharkhand Manipur
Madhya Pradesh 125 223 3%
Gujarat 93 3%
19 Days doubling rate 206 9% 4% Chhattisgarh
86 Odisha Tripura
Mizoram
154 2%
3%
202 375 3%
Maharashtra
Dadar & Nagar Haveli 6%
1201 West Bengal Total cases per million >1200
617 2% 196 7%
20%
64% Recovery rate Telangana
Total cases per million 800-1200
Total cases per million 400-800
349 16%
Goa Total cases per million <400
1055 4% Andhra Pradesh No cases2
959 6%
2.3% Fatality rate Karnataka
915 8% Pondicherry
Active cases per million
785 8% Test positivity rate
Kerala
Tamil Nadu Andaman & Nicobar Islands
269 3%
1. Total Cases = Active Cases + Recovered Cases + Fatalities; 705 9% 348 2%
2. No states with zero cases
Source: Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW); 7
covid19india.org; BCG analysis
2 EPIDEMIOLOGICAL
COVID-19 cases in India on a continuous rise in the last 3-4 months DISEASE
PROGRESSION
Data as of 27 Jul Deaths Recovered Active cases

Total cases
2.8x
1,500,000
1,250,000
1,000,000
750,000 3.2x
500,000
5.0x
250,000 15.5x
0
01- 27- 27- 27- 27-
Apr Apr May Jun Jul
Total cases 28k 152k 509k 1.5M
Active cases 21k 83k 197k 497k
Days Doubling Rate 10 14 19 19
Recovery Rate 22% 43% 58% 64%
Test Positivity Rate 4.0% 4.5% 6.2% 8.6%
Fatality Rate 3.1% 2.9% 3.1% 2.3%
8
Source: Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW); covid19india.org; BCG analysis
2
3
Summary: Trends for the last 6 months show an uptick in May & Jun vs. the Apr
lows; however gap still exists with pre-COVID levels across most indicators
Data as of 27 Jul
Indicator Unit Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Indicator Unit Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
1 Industrial Activity 5 Sector-wise Impact
Power Consumption MU 3% 11% -9% -24% -15% -10% Cement Production MT 5% 8% -25% -85% -22% NA
Petroleum Consumption MT 0% 4% -18% -46% -23% -8% Steel Consumption MT 5% 5% -23% -87% -53% -29%
Passenger Car Sales k -12% -10% -56% -99% -83% -51%
Index of Industrial Prod. Index 2% 5% -18% -58% -35% NA
Comm. Vehicles Sales k -15% -32% -86% -100% -96% -57%
2 Trade Two-wheeler Sales k -11% -15% -36% -98% -81% -38%
Services Export USD 7% 7% 1% -9% -10% -11% Fertilizer Sales MT 11% 53% 18% 45% 98% 79%
Services Import USD 9% 13% -2% -18% -20% -18% Gross Premium (Life) INR 18% 2% -32% -33% -25% -10%
Gross Premium (Non-Life) INR 7% 8% -11% -9% -11% 8%
Merchandize Export USD -2% 3% -35% -60% -36% -12%
Pharma. Sales INR 8% 12% 9% -11% -9% 2%
Merchandize Import USD -1% 2% -29% -60% -52% -48%
Chemical Production Index Index 6% 4% -3% -19% -36% NA
3 Logistics
6 Macroeconomic Indicators
E-Way Bills Generated Mn 12% 14% -26% -84% -53% 18%
Total GST Collection INR 8% 8% -8% -72% -38% -9%
Railway Freight Originated MT 3% 6% -14% -35% -21% -8% Central Govt. Expenditure INR Tn 1.6 2.0 2.2 3.1 2.0 NA
JNPT Container Traffic TEUs -3% 1% -13% -37% -39% -29% MGNREGA Jobs Demand HHs -11% 5% 2% -40% 45% 71%
Air Freight kT -1% -1% -32% -83% -68% NA MGNREGA Jobs Provided HHs -13% 5% -1% -35% 56% 80%
No. of Tenders Announced k 5% -2% 17% -53% -10% 46%
4 Financial Services
7 Sentiment
NPCI Retail Txns. (Values) INR 19% 35% -4% -50% -29% -2%
NIFTY 50 (indexed to Jan-20) Index 100.0 94.0 67.0 76.0 72.8 79.1
NPCI Retail Txns. (Volume) Mn 59% 56% 24% 7% 22% 39%
India VIX Index 17.4 23.2 64.4 34.0 30.2 29.1
Total Bank Credit INR 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% PMI (Manufacturing) Index 55.3 54.5 51.8 27.4 30.8 47.2
Total Bank Deposits INR 10% 9% 9% 10% 11% 11% PMI (Service) Index 55.5 57.5 49.3 5.4 12.6 33.7
Data for 2020; YoY growth represented for all indicators (except for NIFTY 50, India VIX, PMI and Central govt. expenditure – absolute values represented for Central govt. expenditure)
Source: POSOCO, PPAC, MoSPI, RBI, Ministry of Comm. & Industry, GST Network, Ministry of Railways, JNPT, AAI, NPCI, JPC, Ministry of Steel, SIAM, CMIE, mFMS, IRDAI, AIOCD, American
10
Chemistry Council, GST Council, Ministry of Finance, Controller General of Accounts, Ministry of Rural Development, Projects Today, Bloomberg, NSE, BSE, IHS Markit, BCG analysis
1
Power consumption has nearly stabilized to pre-COVID-19 levels; IIP & ECONOMIC
Fuel consumption have shown signs of recovery in May-Jun period INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY
Key Trends Daily Average Power IIP2 (Index of Industrial Consumption of

Consumption Volume1 Production) & ICI3 (Index Petroleum Products
• Decline in avg. power ('000s MUs) of Core Industries)4 (in MMT)
consumption vs. last year 3.9 4.0 4.0
4 3.7 3.8 3.8 150 137 134
down to 4% post relaxations 3.5 133 20 18.5 18.2
in Jun as compared to ~25% 13% 16.1 16.3 -12%
137 134 105
12%
in lockdown 1.0 & 2.01 3 15
4% 4% 14.6 13%
120 13% 14%
14%
1%
100 3% 16%
82 14%
• Index of Industrial 13% 1%
12%
9.9
reserved. Updated 28 July 2020.

Production2, as tracked by 2 88 10
3.4 3.6 3.5 3.6 54 37% 39% 21% 39%
MOSPI, witnessed a sharp 3.2 35%
1% 38%
2.8 2.9 50 10%
uptick in May signifying 1 5 33%
recovery in production in 32% 32% 34%
rights reserved.
34% 33%
mining, power & 35%
manufacturing sectors4 0 0 0
All rights
May-20
May-20
Feb-20
Unlock 1.0
Unlock 2.0
Jan-20
Feb-20
Jan-20
Pre COVID-19
Lockdown 1.0
Lockdown 2.0
Lockdown 3.0
Lockdown 4.0
Jun-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Group. All
• ICI, a subset of IIP, reflecting
Consulting Group.
8 core industries, relatively
Boston Consulting
IIP ICI LPG ATF Petrol Diesel Others5
less impacted
2019
YoY YoY
-4% -25% -24% -18% -10% -11% -4% 0% 4% -18% -46% -23% -8%
by Boston
• Overall fuel demand in growth 2020 growth
Jun-20 recovered back to
2020 by
© 2020
1. Pre-COVID-19 period refers to 15 Mar -24 Mar , Lockdown 1.0 = 25 Mar - 19 Apr, Lockdown 2.0 = 20 Apr - 3 May, Lockdown 3.0 = 4 May - 7 May, Lockdown 4.0 = 18 May
~88% of Feb-20 levels, driven – 29 May, Unlock 1.0 = 30 May – 30 Jun, Unlock 2.0 = 1 Jul – till date (as on 27-Jul-20)
Copyright ©
by recovery in Diesel, Petrol 2. Index of Industrial Production (IIP) shows the growth rates in different industry groups (comprises of Mfg. (78% weightage), Mining (14%), Electricity (8%))
Copyright
3. Index of Core Industries (ICI) measures performance of production in 8 core industries (Coal, Crude, NG, Refinery Products, Fertilizers, Steel, Cement & Electricity)
and other Industrial fuels 4. In view of the effect of the containment measures for COVID-19 pandemic, the indices for Apr-20 & May-20 are not comparable with preceding months 11
5. Others include Naptha, Petcoke, Bitumen; ATF = Aviation Fuel; Petrol refers to MS and Diesel refers to HSD as reported by Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC)
Source: Power System Operation Corporation, Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, Dept. for Promotion of Industry & Internal Trade, PPAC, BCG analysis
2
Stronger recovery in merchandize exports vs. imports; Relatively less ECONOMIC
MERCHANDISE &
impact on Services trade in Apr-Jun1 vs. goods SERVICES TRADE
Services Trade Merchandize Trade

Key Trends
(USD Bn) (USD Bn)
• Services: Impact
observed in both exports Services Exports Services Imports Merchandize Exports Merchandize Imports
& imports in Apr-Jun;
41.1
Imports have witnessed a 37.5
sharper YoY drop of ~18%
in Jun vs. exports which 31.2
witnessed ~11% drop YoY 27.7
25.8
21.4 22.2 21.9 21.1
• Merchandize: Stronger 19.0 17.7 18.2 19.1
16.5 16.8 16.5 17.1
recovery observed in
merchandize exports vs. 12.0 11.1 11.1
9.3 9.9 9.6 10.3
imports; Net exporter in
Jun ($790 Mn surplus)
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
Exports Exports
YoY 7% 7% 1% -9% -10% -11% YoY -2% 3% -35% -60% -36% -12%
growth growth
Imports Imports
YoY 9% 13% -2% -18% -20% -18% YoY -1% 2% -29% -60% -52% -48%
growth growth
1. June 2020 Service Import & Export numbers are provisional as provided by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry as of 15-July 12
Source: RBI, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, BCG analysis
3
Recovery in rail freight, FASTag transaction volumes and E-Way bill ECONOMIC
volumes in Jun-20 LOGISTICS
Railway freight traffic FASTag transaction E-way bills1 generated

Key Trends originating (Mn Tons) volume (Mn) (Mn)
• Railway freight traffic

recovered in Jun-20, with 120 120 Toll collection 60 57 57
suspended
the YoY gap from last -15% from 25-Mar to -12% -24%
50
year in Jun reducing to 20-Apr2
24 43
90 90 23 41
8%, vs. the sharpest 40
decline of 35% in Apr 16
16
60 60 30 25
111 106 110
• Contraction in FASTag 103
94 93
transactions till Apr; 83 85 82 20 8
65 33 34
gradual recovery in May 30 30 55 27
24 9
& Jun with economy re- 10 17
2
opening 10 6
0 0 0
May-20
May-20
May-20
Feb-20
Feb-20
Feb-20
Jan-20
Jan-20
Jan-20
Jun-20
Jun-20
Jun-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
• Sharp recovery in inter-
state & intra-state E-way
bills generated in Jun;
Inter-state Intra-state
higher recovery in intra-
state vs. inter-state YoY MoM YoY
3% 6% -14% -35% -21% -8% 45% 18% -23% -88% 437% 48% 12% 14% -26% -84% -53% 18%
growth growth growth
1. E-Way bills or Electronic way bills are required to be generated at the time of transport of goods by every registered person if the value of the
consignment exceeds INR 50,000; 2. As per announcement by NHAI; 3. High YoY growth due to drop in e-way bills in Jun-19; due to new provision 13
introduced limiting generation of E-Way bills if the GST Return filing pending for last 2 months
Source: GST Network, NHAI, NPCI, Ministry of Railways, CEIC data, BCG analysis
3
JNPT traffic continues to witness weak trends in May-Jun; Air freight has ECONOMIC
shown an uptick in May-20 vs. Apr-20 LOGISTICS
Key Trends JNPT Container

Air Freight
Traffic ('000s TEUs1)
(k Tons)
• Muted recovery in JNPT
container traffic in May & 450 300 276 268
Jun; still at 32% below 400 270
Jan-20 levels 350 -32% 240
112 210
210 106
300
180 -66%
250 77
• Air freight observed slow 150
recovery in May-20; still 200 426 417 410
120
66% lower than Jan-20 150 95
284 275 289 90
levels 164 162 19
100 60 133 47
50 7 76
30
40
0 0
May-20
May-20
Jan-20
Feb-20
Jan-20
Feb-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Mar-20
Domestic International
YoY YoY
-3% 1% -13% -37% -39% -29% -1% -1% -32% -83% -68%
growth growth
14
.1. TEU refers to Twenty-foot equivalent unit equivalent to 20 shipping containers (20 feet long, 8 feet tall)
Source: Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust, Airport Authority of India, BCG analysis
4
Aggregate deposits continue to grow at a fast pace this year; aggregate ECONOMIC
bank credit showcased slight drop in YoY growth levels FINANCIAL SERVICES
Key Trends
Total deposits value & growth Total credit outstanding value &
• Bank deposits grew by ~11.0% aggregated for all banks growth aggregated for all banks
YoY in Jun-20, highest in last 12
months Bank deposits (INR Tn) YoY growth (%) Bank credit (INR Tn) YoY growth (%)
150 15 150 15
Share as of 31-Mar-20 %
Current deposits 9.2% 11.2 11.0 11.0
10.6 10.6
120
Savings deposits 32.8% 140 9.8 9.5 9.9 9.9
9.1 9.0 9.1 9.4
104
103
10 10
103
103
103
102
102
102
101
101
100
Term deposits 57.9% 7.9
7.5 7.2 7.2 7.2 6.8
90 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.1
Total 100%
130
101
100
141
139
139
139
138
132
133
133
136
137
137
133
132
5 5
• Slowdown in YoY growth of
100
30
current deposits (6.7% in
131
Q4'20 vs. 10.5% in Q4'19)

implying increased YoY growth 0 0 0 0
03-Jan
17-Jan
31-Jan
03-Jan
17-Jan
31-Jan
08-May
22-May
08-May
22-May
05-Jun
05-Jun
19-Jun
19-Jun
14-Feb
28-Feb
14-Feb
28-Feb
03-Jul
03-Jul
13-Mar
27-Mar
13-Mar
27-Mar
10-Apr
24-Apr
10-Apr
24-Apr
in term & savings deposits
• Bank credit observed slight

drop in YoY growth levels in Lockdown Lockdown
Jun-Jul vs. earlier months
YoY growth Aggregate bank deposits YoY growth Aggregate bank credit
15
Source: RBI DBIE, Press search, BCG analysis
4
Marginal change in non-food credit split across sectors & industries ECONOMIC
FINANCIAL SERVICES
(As recorded for 41 banks that account for 90% of total non-food credit outstanding)
Non-food credit
accounts for ~99% of
total bank credit at an
Key Trends Non-Food Credit1 (INR Tn) aggregate level
Industry Jan-20 May-20
Infrastructure 36.8% 36.9%
92 91 90
89 89 Metals & Metal Products 11.9% 12.4%
• Marginal increase in 13% 13%
Agriculture Textiles 6.7% 6.6%
13% 13% 13%
contribution of services & Allied Activities Chemical Products 6.5% 6.4%
in total non-food credit All Engineering 5.6% 5.4%
from Jan-20 to May-20; 32% 32% 32% Industry
Food Processing 5.3% 5.2%
32% 31%
slight decline in share of Construction 3.7% 3.5%
personal loans Vehicles & Equipment 2.8% 3.0%
Petroleum, Coal & Fuels 2.0% 2.6%
• Marginal increase in Cement Products 2.0% 2.0%
27% 27% 28% 28% 28% Services
share of industry credit Gems & Jewelry 2.1% 2.0%
Rubber & Plastic 1.7% 1.7%
outstanding for select
Mining & Quarrying 1.5% 1.5%
sectors:
Paper & Paper Products 1.1% 1.1%
– Infrastructure 28% 28% 28% 27% 27% Personal Loans
Beverage & Tobacco 0.5% 0.6%
– Metals & metal Wood & Wood Products 0.4% 0.4%
products Leather & Leather Products 0.4% 0.4%
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20
– Vehicles & equipment Glass & Glassware 0.3% 0.3%
– Petroleum, coal & fuels 8.5% 7.3% 6.7% 7.3% 6.8% YoY growth Other Industries 8.4% 8.1%
– Beverage & tobacco Total 100% 100%
Decline in YoY growth rate2 > Jan-20 <= Jan-20
1. Non-food credit: All loans except those to Food Corporation of India and state agencies for procurement of grains under government PDS
2.Only includes data for 41 Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs), accounting for 90% of total non-food credit extended by all SCBs 16
Source: RBI
4
Retail transactions volume recovered to near pre-COVID levels in Jun-20; ECONOMIC
FINANCIAL SERVICES
lag in transaction value recovery indicates increase in small ticket sizes
Volume of retail transactions5 (in Bn) Value of retail transactions5 (in INR Tn)
Share of ~ 77% of total retail payments Share of ~ 45% of total retail payments
NPCI1 ~65% of total digital payments NPCI1 ~5% of total digital payments
2.7 2.6
2.4 2.5 2.5
2.4 2.4
2.2
2.1 2.1 2.0 15
1.9 14 14 14
13 13 13 13
12 12
82% 39%
80% 82% 82% 43% 43% 43% 10
81% 84% 86% 37% 40% 43% 48%
78% 79% 87% 41%
77% 90% 56%
7
62%
53% 46% 47% 52%
50% 49% 47% 47% 43% 65%
5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 34%
2% 27%
19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 15% 14% 14% 13% 1% 12%1% 12% 10% 10%
24%
9% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 10% 11% 10%
Aug-19
May-20
Sep-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Jul-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Oct-19
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Aug-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Jul-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Oct-19
60% 62% 54% 61% 56% 53% 59% 56% 24% 7% 22% 39% 19% 17% 16% 20% 19% 17% 19% 35% -4% -50% -29% -2%
Cash2 Physical3 Digital4 (incl. UPI) YoY growth
1. Share of NPCI is based on data for Jan 2020 and Feb 2020 2. Cash refers to NFS Inter Bank ATM Cash Withdrawal; 3. Physical refer to CTS Cheque Clearing (Processed Volume); 4. Digital refer
to NACH- National Automated Clearing House, IMPS, RuPay Card usage at (POS), RuPay Card usage at (eCom) AEPS (Inter Bank) Txn over Micro ATM (e.g., Cash withdrawal/Cash Deposit),
BBPS (Bill Payment passing through BBPCU), UPI—Unified Payments Interface, USSD 1.0, NETC 5. NPCI retail transactions does not include NEFT, RTGS through RBI, Credit and debit card
transactions other than RuPay, mobile banking & internet banking transaction, cash withdrawal from bank's ATM 17
Source: BCG Analysis, National Payment Corporation of India (NPCI)
5
Signs of recovery witnessed in cement production and finished steel ECONOMIC
consumption in May-Jun period; recovery faster in cement & long steel SECTOR-WISE IMPACT
Key Trends
Consumption of Long Consumption of Flat
Cement Production
• Cement production Steel Steel
(in MT)
declined by 43% YoY in (in MMT) (in MMT)
the 3 month period of 40 6 6
Mar-May 20; prices have
normalized post easing of -20%
lockdown restrictions 30
-29% 4 4
-44%
• Long steel consumption 20
declined by 53% YoY for
31.4 30.7 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.4
the 3 month (Apr-Jun) 2 4.1 2
24.8 22.2 3.5
period—primarily used 10 3.2
2.1 2.5
by construction and 2.0
infrastructure industries 4.3 0.4 0.6
0 0 0
May-20
Jan-20
Feb-20
Jun-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jan-20
Feb-20
Jun-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
• Flat steel consumption
declined by 57% YoY for
the 3 month (Apr-Jun) Cement Production Long Steel Consumption Flat Steel Consumption
period—primarily used
by manufacturing
YoY YoY YoY
industries growth 5% 8% -25% -85% -22% 2% 7% -5% -90% -56% -15% 7% 2% -38% -83% -51% -43%
growth growth
18
Source: Joint Plant Committee, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Livemint, CMIE, BCG Analysis
5
Auto sales saw a steep decline across categories in Mar & Apr-20; ECONOMIC
gradual recovery in May & Jun-20, though still at a 40-60% YoY gap SECTOR-WISE IMPACT
Passenger vehicles sales ('000 units) Two wheeler sales ('000 units)
360 2,402
305 286 2,018 1,947
266 1,692
292 179 2,001 1,085 1,209
248 227 210 130 1,725 1,649
1,441
141 49 867 377 1,013
4 106 46
68 57 59 57 38 34 251 401 293 297 218 280 196
4 0 15 25 46 0 97
Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
YoY growth -50% -99% -83% -51% YoY growth -36% -98% -81% -38%
Commercial vehicles sales1 ('000 units) Three wheeler sales ('000 units)
119 115
92 91 92
76 Split across domestic sales &
72 72 exports not available for Apr-Jun'20 66
109 46 52 52 54
33 36
17 28 20 10
49 46 40 40 7 2
13 0 3 26 0 18 26
10 4 7
Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
YoY growth -86% -100% -96% -57% YoY growth -53% -92% -78% -61%
Domestic sales 2019 Exports 2019 Domestic sales 2020 Exports 2020
Note: Apr-20 figures for all categories based on CMIE; Accurate split between domestic sales & exports for Apr-20 not available; all sales considered under exports based on press search 19
1. For Commercial vehicles, split for domestic sales and exports not available for Apr-Jun quarter 2020; all figures are considered as a part of domestic sales for illustrative purposes
Source: SIAM, CMIE, Press search, BCG analysis
5
Pharma & fertilizer sales relatively less impacted as compared to other ECONOMIC
sectors; No recovery in index of chemical production as of May-20 SECTOR-WISE IMPACT
Key Trends Pharmaceutical Sales Fertilizer Sales Indian Chemical

(INR k Cr) (in LMT) Production Index1
• Pharma. sales have (3mo. moving avg.)
recovered to pre-COVID- 12.1 12.1 11.8 69 124 122
19 levels with Jun-20 11.2 64 113
6
10.2 10.3 3
sales registering ~2% YoY 10 13 95
46% 47%
growth 46% 43% 2 47
3
42% 42% 8 3 40 75
9 3 13
• Fertilizers sales 3 29 8
5
showcased YoY growth of 34% 33% 35% 35% 6
2
21 7
2
38% 37%
45%, 98% & 79% in Apr, 40
4
2
4
1
34
27 1
May & Jun respectively; 16
3
20
20% 20% 19% 20% 21% 22% 11
driven by early monsoons
and steady showers
May-20
May-20
May-20
Jan-20
Feb-20
Jan-20
Feb-20
Jan-20
Feb-20
Apr-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Mar-20
Jun-20
Mar-20
• Chemical production
volumes declined by Acute Chronic Sub-chronic Urea MOP SSP Index of Chemical Production
~21% MoM in May-20; DAP NPKS Compost
reaching multi-year lows
YoY
8% 12% 9% -11% -9% 2% 11% 53% 18% 45% 98% 79% 6% 4% -3% -19% -36%
growth
1. Indian Chemical Production Index refers to a 3-month moving average figure for chemicals production with figure for 2012 as base figure (100)
Source: AIOCD, American Chemistry Council, Mobile Based Fertilizer Management System (mFMS), Ministry of Finance, PIB, The Economic Times, 20
Press search, BCG analysis
5
Life Insurance segment showed gradual recovery in premiums in Jun-20; ECONOMIC
SECTOR-WISE IMPACT
Non-Life1 segment registered ~8% YoY growth in Jun-20
Life Insurance Gross Premium declined by ~33% YoY in Apr-20; registered Non-Life1 Insurance relatively less impacted;
gradual recovery in May-Jun with decline narrowing to ~10% in Jun-20 premiums grew ~8% YoY in Jun-20
Premium (INR Cr.) -10% Premium (INR Cr.)
-25%
-33% +8%
-11%
32,241 -9%
1% Group Yearly
28,869
15,892
2% 1% Renewable Premium
34% 14,477 13,961
Group Non-Single 12,948
Premium 12,231
18,414 10,891
2% 69% Group Single
15% 13,739 Premium
41% 4%
9,982 11% Individual Non-Single
49%
2% 4% 6,728 48% Premium
48% 2% 8%
16% 17% Individual Single
22% 54% 24%
31% Premium
15% 11% 7% 26% 12% 11%
9%
Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
Number of
policies (‘000) 1283 1625 1900 416 1008 1681
• Motor Insurance declined substantially with a drop of
~49% & ~36% YoY in Apr-20 & May-20 respectively
YoY growth -68% -38% -11%
rate for no. of • Fire & Health Insurance registered healthy YoY growth
policies of ~38% & ~7% respectively in Apr-May period
21
1. Non-Life Insurance includes Fire, Marine, Motor, Engineering, Health, Cop Insurance, Credit Guarantee, Aviation, Personnel accident and Miscellaneous
Source: IRDAI, BCG Analysis
6
India’s fiscal deficit reached INR 4.7 Tr (58.6% of budget estimate) ECONOMIC
MACROECONOMIC
within first 2 months of new fiscal; GST collections gradually recovering INDICATORS
Central Govt. Revenue & Expenditure Total GST Collections3

Key Trends (INR Tn) (INR Tn)
(based on data from Controller General of Accounts, (based on data from GST Council)
Ministry of Finance)
• As per analyst1 , India's -18%
fiscal deficit in FY21 Total Expenditure -71%
expected to shoot up to Non-Debt Receipts 1.2 1.11
6.2% of GDP vs. 3.5% 10 3 1.05
Expenditure & Receipts (INR Tn)
Total GST Collections (INR Tn)

Gross Fiscal Deficit2 0.98
estimate 9
Gross Fiscal Deficit (INR Tn)

2.8 1.0 0.91
8 2
• In comparison, for FY20, 7 1.9 0.8
India’s fiscal deficit was 6 0.5 0.5 1 0.62
4.6% of GDP vs. target of 5 0.6
3.8% 4 3.2 0
3.1 0.4 0.32
3 2.2
2.0 2.0
• GST collections recovered 2 1.6 1.5 -1 0.2
1.0
from -72% YoY decline in 1 -1.0 0.3 0.2
Apr-20 to -9% YoY decline 0 -2 0.0
in Jun-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
Expenditure
-6% 5% 80% 21% -21% 8% 8% -8% -72% -38% -9%
YoY growth
Revenue
5% 37% -2% -72% -64%
YoY growth
1. Fitch Solutions 2. Gross Fiscal Deficit is the difference between the total Non-Debt Receipts of the government (revenue receipts and non-debt
22
capital receipts) and Total expenditure 3. GST Collections include all components: CGST, SGST, IGST, Cess
Source: Ministry of Finance, GST Council, BCG analysis
6
75% MoM drop in count of tenders announced by state & central govts ECONOMIC
MACROECONOMIC
in Apr-20; 2.7x recovery in tender count in Jun-20 from Apr-20 levels INDICATORS
Count of tenders announced by central & state govts Value of tenders announced by central & state
(k) govts (INR k Cr)
Minimal drop in project value in Apr-20

due to high ticket irrigation projects in
Telangana
-75% -2%
-19%
4.3 74.2 74.6
3.9 3.9 67.4 67.4 66.2
2.7x 60.3 64.3
57.1 58.5
53.5
2.7 2.7
2.3 36.0
1.8 1.8 2.0 30.6
1.7 1.5
1.0
May-20
May-20
Aug-19
Aug-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Jul-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Nov-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Dec-19
Oct-19
Mar-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Oct-19
Mar-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
YoY YoY
5% -2% 17% -53% -10% 46% -75% -81% -74% -59% -63% 7%
growth growth
Source: Project Today database, BCG analysis 23

6
MGNREGA job demand observed a steep rise in May & Jun-20, highest ECONOMIC
MACROECONOMIC
in last 5 years INDICATORS
MGNREGA1: Job demand under the scheme has jumped sharply

after lakhs of workers returned to their villages due to the crisis…
Work Demand (households, in Mn) • Spike in demand for MGNREGA jobs by

individual households generally observed in
50
May & June when kharif crop sowing begins
40 – This year the work demand has been
30 stronger than the previous years and
20 44
36 highest in the last five years2
10 19 22 21
13
0
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 • The increase is driven by the migration of a
YoY large number of workers to their villages due to
-11% 5% 2% -40% 45% 71%
Growth COVID-19 crisis, enhanced MGNREGA activities
Employment Provided (households, in Mn) and an early monsoon2
40
30
• ~116 districts across Bihar (32), Uttar Pradesh
20 39 (31), Madhya Pradesh (24), Rajasthan (22),
33
10 16 19 16 Odhisa (4) and Jharkhand (3) registered the
11 highest increase in work demand
0
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 – Garib Kalyan Rojgar Abhiyan with an outlay
YoY of INR ~50,000 crores was launched for
-13% 5% -1% -35% 56% 80%
Growth these 116 districts2
24
1. Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act; 2. Based on press search
Source: Ministry of Labor & Employment, Ministry of Rural Development, The Indian Express, Outlook India, LiveMint, BCG analysis
6
Organized sector hiring and joining activity declined in Apr & May; ECONOMIC
MACROECONOMIC
gradual recovery registered in Jun (based on select indicators) INDICATORS
Naukri Jobspeak Index dropped by ~62% in May over pre-COVID-191 Net new EPF subscribers declined to ~0.1 Mn in Apr-20 vis-à-vis ~0.5 Mn
levels; gradual recovery observed in Jun with MoM growth of ~33% in Apr-19; gradual recovery observed in May with ~0.32 Mn net additions
Naukri Jobspeak Index Net new EPF Subscriber (in Mn)

125 1.5 ~57.4 Mn active members on
100 101 EPFO in last 12 months2
95
100 100 Avg. monthly net additions for
82
CY 2019 at ~0.64 Mn
1.0
75
Jan-20 number 51 2019
50 taken as base 40 38 2020
for index (100) 0.5 1.00 1.02
0.83 0.79 0.81
25 0.57 0.50
0.31 0.32
0 0.0 0.10
Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Naukri Jobspeak Index Net New EPF Subscriber Trend

Monthly index which calculates and records hiring activity based on Net new EPF subscribers are net of the members newly enrolled, exited
newly added job listings on Naukri.com every month and rejoined during the month as per records of the EPFO
Jobs analyzed for the monthly index are qualified on the basis of Employees in an establishment3 drawing less than INR 15,000 per
white-collar jobs belonging to the organized corporate sector month have to mandatorily become members of the EPF upon joining
1. Jan-20 level considered as pre-COVID-19 level 2. Active members refers to total contributing members during last one year as published on EPFO dashboard as on 24-Jul-20; 3. Covers 25
every establishment in which 20+ people are employed and certain organizations are covered, subject to certain conditions and exemptions even if they employ less than 20 persons each
Source: Ministry of Labor and Employment, InfoEdge, Naukri.com, BCG analysis
6
Contraction in WPI to sub-zero levels in Apr-May, slight recovery in Jun; ECONOMIC
MACROECONOMIC
CPI also fluctuating due to falling food prices & low demand INDICATORS
Monthly inflation rate (in %)
Wholesale Price Index (WPI)2 Consumer Price Index (CPI)1

10 8 7.6
7.4 7.2
6.6
6.1
5.7 5.8
5.3 5.25.5 6 5.5
4.8 4.6 4.5 6.3
5 4.94.9
3.6 3.5 3.5 4.6 4.6
2.8 3.1 2.8 2.8 4.2
2.3 4.0
2.0 3.73.7
3.2 4 3.4
2.9 1.21.2 3.3
3.0 3.1
0.30.00.6 0.4 2.9
2.6
2.3
0
2.0 3.0 3.2
-1.6 -1.8
2 2.1
-3.2
-5 0
May-18
Aug-18
May-19
Aug-19
May-20
May-18
Aug-18
May-19
Aug-19
May-20
Jan-19
Sep-18
Feb-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Sep-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Jul-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jul-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jul-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jul-19
Dec-19
Apr-18
Jun-18
Mar-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Mar-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Apr-18
Jun-18
Mar-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Mar-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-18
Oct-19
1. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is
calculated as year on year increase in prices of the commodities 2. The wholesale price index (WPI) measures and tracks the changes in the price of goods in the stages before the retail level –
that is, goods that are sold in bulk and traded between entities or businesses instead of consumers. It is calculated as year on year increase in prices of the commodities
Note: In May 2016, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act, 1934 was amended to provide a statutory basis for the implementation of the flexible inflation targeting framework. 26
Source: BCG Analysis. DPIIT, MOSPI, Office of the Economic Advisor - Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade,CMIE
7
Manufacturing & Services PMI observed recovery in Jun-20 from Apr-20 ECONOMIC
SENTIMENT –
lows; but sentiment is still below with 50 point mark MFG. & SERVICES PMI
Manufacturing PMI has shown sharp recovery in Services PMI dropped below to ~ 5.4 in Apr-20
Jun-20 after dropping to multi-year lows in Apr-20 after reaching its peak in the last 7 years in Feb-20
Manufacturing PMI Services PMI

70 70
65 Possible 65 Possible
60 expansion 60 55.5 expansion
55.3 in the sector in the sector
55 55
54.5 51.8 -8.1 57.5
50 47.2 50 49.3 -23.8
45 45
40 40
35 35
30 30.8 30 33.7
27.4 Possible Possible
25 contraction 25 contraction
in the sector in the sector
20 Decline in Mfg. PMI from the peak in 20 Decline in Services PMI from
15 Jan-20 owing to drop in exports, 15 the 7-year peak in Feb-20 owing
supply chain disruptions due to to impact on global demand; 12.6
10 COVID-19; Has shown sharp recovery 10 dropped below 50-mark
5 since easing of restrictions 5 Sharp recovery in Jun-20 5.4
0 0
Apr-20
Aug-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Jun-20
Jun-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Note: The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a measure of the prevailing direction of economic trends in manufacturing and services sectors. The PMI is based on a monthly survey of supply
chain managers across 19 industries, covering both upstream and downstream activity. Value >50 indicates possible expansion in the sector, and value <50 indicates recession. 27
Source: IHS Markit, CMIE, Analyst Reports, BCG analysis
7
Pharma continues its positive trajectory in the Indian stock market ECONOMIC
SENTIMENT – NIFTY
while realty, media and bank Nifty see the maximum decline SECTORAL INDICES
Data as of 27 Jul
Descending order of performance1
Nifty Sectoral Indices
Sectoral Index Change (%)
Change (%)
Pharma 25.56%
30
Energy 10.24%
20 IT 8.25%
FMCG 2.06%
10
Infra 0.56%
0 NIFTY -4.55%
Commodities -5.75%
-10
Auto -8.80%
-20 Services -13.25%
Metal -15.57%
-30
Financial Services -20.71%
-40 Bank Nifty -24.14%
-50
Media -26.73%
12-May
18-Jun
01-Jun
01-Feb
19-Feb
10-Jul
27-Jul
11-Mar
30-Mar
22-Apr
Realty -36.03%
1. Growth rate vs. 01-Feb-20 28

Source : NSE, Bloomberg, BCG analysis
7
Increased volatility and trading volumes in leading stock exchanges; ECONOMIC
SENTIMENT – STOCK
Decline in mutual fund AUM - reversion to 5% YoY growth in Jun-20 MKT. TRANSACTIONS
Key Trends Stock Market Transactions Mutual Funds AUM2

(INR k Cr) (INR L Cr)
• Spike in stock market
transactions during 1,500 80 30 27.9
BSE 110 27.2
pandemic; ~2.3x bump in 64 25.5
Transaction Value ( INR) k Cr

24.5
India Volatility Index (VIX)1

NSE 25 23.9
value vs. previous year in 60
22.3
BSE & NSE India VIX 82 65
1,000 20
44
56 56
• Increased volatility - India 34 40 15
30 1,351
VIX index1 peaked at 64
23
in Mar-20; Jun-20 VIX of 500 1,006
906 1,000 10
805 797 29 20
29 still higher than Jan-20
levels of 17 5
17
0 0 0
• Recovery in mutual fund Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
AUM in terms of absolute
levels and YoY growth BSE YoY 10% 1% -20% 21% 12% 135% 19% 18% -6% -3% -5% 5%
trajectory after decline of
3-6% YoY in Mar-May'20 NSE YoY 21% 25% 44% 42% 27% 127% Mutual Funds AUM include investments from
individuals (50.5%) & institutions (49.5%); institutions
include domestic & foreign institutions and banks
1. Volatility Index is a measure of market’s expectation of volatility over the near term; India VIX is a volatility index based on the NIFTY50 Index
Option prices providing the expected market volatility over the next 30 calendar days – figures represented are as of end of every month shown
2. Mutual funds Assets Under Management (AUM) represented as recorded at end of every month shown 29
Source: BSE, NSE, AMFI, BCG analysis
7
Foreign equity inflows observed fluctuations amidst current ECONOMIC
SENTIMENT -
FOREIGN EQUITY
uncertain situations INFLOW
Data as of 24 Jul
Net Foreign Equity Inflows $Mn
3,000 2020 2019
2,262
2,000
1,704
1,373 1,396 1,381
1,044
1,000
450
-612
-338 -350
-1,000 India New FDI rules

-948 announced
01-Jan
01-May
Lockdown
01-Jun
01-Feb
01-Jul
01-Mar
01-Apr
1st COVID-19 Surge in COVID-19 cases in Global COVID-19 Aggressive lifting Equity mutual funds
case in India India as well as globally growth slowing down of the lockdown witnessed the lowest net
since early April
inflows in 51 months in June
30
Source: Bloomberg, Press search, BCG analysis
7
PE/VC investments saw a decline in last few months; shift in investment ECONOMIC
SENTIMENT -
across sectors – increased investment in Healthcare in May & Jun PE/VC INVESTMENT
Total deal value of PE/VC investments1 ($ Bn)

(Excluding Jio Platforms deals)
2.96
8%
10%
5%
2.14 Others2
19% 12% Telecom
4%
10%
Education
8% Manufacturing
5%
36%
1.14 BFSI
19% 1.03 2% 0.94 0.97 8%
3% 2%
11%
1%
2% 0% 3% 0% 2% 0% Energy
8% 16% 23% 36% 45%
22%
Healthcare &
5% 8%
34%
7% Lifesciences
67% 36%
17% 45% 42%
18%
IT & ITES
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
# of deals 66 58 52 57 33 41
Avg. deal
45 37 20 17 29 28
value ($ Mn)
Note: 1. Deals include Angel/Seed, Venture Capital and Private Equity deals which are announced & closed between 01-Jan- 2020 and 30-Jun-2020; 2. Others includes Media & Entertainment,
Retail, Shipping & Logistics, Sports & Fitness, Textiles & Garments, Travel & Transport, FMCG, Advertising, others 31
Source: Venture Intelligence, BCG analysis
7
Indian GDP growth forecasts continuously being revised downwards ECONOMIC
GDP FORECASTS
over the last few months amidst uncertainty around economic recovery
Data as of 27 Jul; Estimates likely to be revised further NON - EXHAUSTIVE
India GDP growth forecast for FY21 (YoY, %)

Mar-Apr May Jun Jul
-1.7 -4.3 -1.7 -4.3 -9.7 -4.8 -5.5 -9.5 -8.4 -10.3 -14.2 -10.0
-8.3 -10.1
5.2 5.1 5.2 5.8 4.7 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.8 4.7 5.5
3.5 3.5 3.3 4.1
0.8 1.5 1.0 0.0
-3.2
-5.0 -5.0 -4.0 -4.5 -4.5
-6.0
Barclays Fitch Crisil DBS ICRA Goldman DBS Moody’s Moody’s Barclays IMF -9.5
Ratings Sachs Investor Bank of ICRA FICCI
Service America
-3.9 -1.9 -3.9 -10.1 -10.2 -10.5 -10.8 -11.8 -11.8

-1.7 -6.1
-7.9
6.0 5.5 5.8 5.1 5.2 4.5 5.5 5.8 5.7
3.6 3.3 4.1
2.1 1.9 1.6 1.1
-2.0
-5.0 -5.0 -6.0 -5.3 -6.0 -6.1
-6.8
Economic India IMF Goldman Bank of India Ratings DBS Nomura
SBI3 Fitch S&P Deutsche
Intelligence Ratings Sachs America
Ratings Bank
unit
1.7 - 4.3 pp drop 4.8 – 10.5 pp drop 6.1 – 10.8 pp drop 10.0 – 14.2 pp drop
1. Pre-lockdown forecasts were made during Feb-2020/early Mar-2020; 2. Post-lockdown forecasts refer to forecasts made between 25-Mar to 22-Jul-2020 Pre-lockdown forecasts1
3. Pre-lockdown forecast for SBI is as of 16-Apr-2020 32
Source: Analysts reports, BCG analysis Post-lockdown forecasts2
2
3
3
Series of fiscal & monetary relief measures announced in the last few PUBLIC POLICY
FISCAL & MONETARY
months RELIEF MEASURES
Data as of 27 Jul NON - EXHAUSTIVE

• Atmanirbhar Bharat Package :
– Tranche 1: Businesses including MSMEs • MSME Emergency Response Programme:
– Tranche 2: Poor, including migrants and GoI and World Bank signed $750 million
farmers agreement with an aim to increase liquidity
• Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan – Tranche 3: Agriculture and allied

Industries • Atmanirbhar Skilled Employee Employer
Yojana: ₹1.7 lakh crore relief Mapping (ASEEM) Digital Platform: Includes
package announced to support the – Tranche 4: New horizons of growth
– Tranche 5: Government Reforms and database of labour migrants & overseas
poor and vulnerable citizens, who returned to India
Enablers
March April May June July
• RBI Measures: Series of liquidity • Extension of Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna
measures announced by the Central Yojana: Relief extended by 5 months from July to
Bank including changes in Repo Rates, November 2020, total estimated cost of ₹6,849.24 Cr
CRR, moratorium period, etc. • Garib Kalyan Rojgar Abhiyaan: ₹50,000 Cr project to
boost employment & livelihood opportunities for
migrant workers returning to villages
• COVID-19 Active Response and Expenditure Support
Programme: GoI & Asian Infrastructure Investment
Bank (AIIB) signed a $750 million to assist to tackle
adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on poor
and vulnerable households
Source: Press Information Bureau (PIB); BCG analysis 34
3
Varied level of progress so far in implementation of the measures PUBLIC POLICY
FISCAL & MONETARY
announced in Mar-Apr-May (as per data released by Ministry of Finance) RELIEF MEASURES
Data as of 27 Jul NON - EXHAUSTIVE

Progress of funds allocated under select schemes announced in last few months Additional reforms launched to
(as per data released by Ministry of Finance) aid implementation of measures
Scheme Focus Allocation Sanctioned Disbursed • Credit Guarantee Scheme for Sub-ordinate
Emergency Credit Debt (CGSSD): Launched to provide
Line Guarantee MSMEs ₹ 3L Cr ₹ 1.3L Cr ~₹ 82K Cr guarantee cover worth ₹ 20 K Cr to
Scheme (ECLGS)1 promoters; they can take debt from banks
to further invest in stressed MSMEs as
Additional Emergency ₹ 30K Cr ₹ 30K Cr ~₹ 25K Cr equity14
Working Capital (to Regional Rural (to Regional Rural (to Regional Rural
Agriculture PMJDY9: ~31K Cr • Procurement Rule Amendment: Global
Funding for farmers Banks and Banks and Banks and
Cooperatives) Cooperatives) Cooperatives) NSAP10: ~3K Cr tenders disallowed in Government
through NABARD2 PM KISAN11: ~18K Cr
Construction
procurement tenders up to ₹ 200 Cr15
₹ 1.7L Cr5 ~₹ 65K Cr6
Pradhan Mantri Garib Workers12: ~4K Cr • The Ministry of Corporate Affairs has raised
Poor and (excl. direct EPFO13: ~1K Cr
Kalyan Yojana (incl. food grains N/A threshold of default to ₹ 1 Cr (existing
Vulnerable distribution of food Ujjwala: ~8K Cr
Scheme3 and pulses)
grains & pulses) threshold of ₹ 1 lakh)
Special Liquidity ~ ₹ 3K Cr for 5 • "One Nation One Ration Card" system:

NBFCs, HFCs, proposals Extended to 20 states16
Scheme for ₹ 30K Cr N/A
MFIs (35 applications
NBFCs/HFCs/MFIs4 under process) • Partial Credit Guarantee Scheme (PCGS)
2.0: Relaxed norms & extended time period
PM SVANidhi Working capital for 64,000 loans 5,500 loans to widen the coverage to include more
₹ 5K Cr sanctioned
Scheme7 street vendors disbursed NBFCs, HFCs & MFIs (esp. lower rated)17
(2.6L applications)
1. As of 23-Jul; 2. As of 06-Jul; 3. As of 19-Jun; 4. As of 23-Jul; 5. Scheme includes both direct cash transfers, and direct distribution of free food grains & pulses for the poor & vulnerable;
6. Additionally, 87.02 LMT of food grains and 3.35 LMT of pulses were distributed in Apr-Jun, as of 19-Jun; 7. As of 25-Jul as released by PMO; 8. As of 11-Jul; 9. PMJDY (Pradhan Mantri Jan
Dhan Yojana women account holders); 10. National Social Assistance Programme (Aged widows, Divyang, Senior citizen); 11. Front-loaded payments to farmers under PM-KISAN; 12.
Building & Other Construction workers; 13. 24% contribution to EPFO (employer's + employee's contribution - applicable for establishments with upto 100 employees, with 90% or more of 35
drawing monthly wages less than INR 15K); 14. Launched on 24-Jun; 15. Unless prior approval is obtained from Cabinet Secretariat; 16. As of 18-Jul, aims to be extended to all states by
March 2021; 17. Cabinet approval granted and operational guidelines issued on 20-May; Source: Press Information Bureau (PIB); Press Search
4
In order to infuse liquidity in the market, RBI has brought down interest PUBLIC POLICY
FISCAL & MONETARY
rates; MCLR on bank borrowings recorded slight decline RELIEF MEASURES
Data as of 27 Jul
Reserve bank’s policy rates (%) MCLR1 of scheduled commercial banks

(Median rate on one year borrowings, in %)
Policy rate % MCLR (%)

10 10
8.60
8 9 8.95
6 7.70
8
7.63
4.00
3.35 6.82
0 0
May-18 Oct-18 Mar-19 Aug-19 Jan-20 Jun-20 May-18 Oct-18 Mar-19 Aug-19 Jan-20 Jun-20
Base rate 2 Repo rate3 Reverse Repo rate4 Total Private Sector Banks
Public Sector Banks Foreign Banks
1. MCLR: Minimum interest rate at which scheduled commercial banks can lend to customers (based on incremental cost of funds). Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate was
introduced from April 2016 for fixing interest rates, and replaced the former Base rate methodology (based on average cost of funds). 2. Base Rate: Minimum rate set by the Reserve
Bank of India below which banks are not allowed to lend to its customers 3. Repo Rate: Interest rate at which the RBI lends short term funds to licensed commercial banks 4. Reverse
Repo Rate: Interest rate which the RBI borrows money from commercial banks 36
Source: CMIE, RBI DBIE
5
20-40% improvement in AQI compared to last year post lockdown SOCIAL
across metro cities AIR QUALITY INDEX
Data as of 22 Jul
New Delhi Mumbai Chennai Bengaluru

AQI Levels AQI Levels AQI Levels AQI Levels
500 500 500 500
400 400 400 400

-41%
300 300 300 300
-27%
200 200 -26% 200 200 -40%
100 100 2019 100 100

2019
2019 2019
2020 2020
2020 2020
0 0 0 0
22-May
22-May
22-May
22-May
12-Feb
5-Mar
11-Apr
12-Feb
5-Mar
11-Apr
12-Feb
5-Mar
11-Apr
12-Feb
5-Mar
11-Apr
1-May
1-May
1-May
1-May
3-Jul
3-Jul
3-Jul
3-Jul
22-Jan
12-Jun
22-Jan
12-Jun
22-Jan
12-Jun
22-Jan
12-Jun
1-Jan
1-Jan
1-Jan
1-Jan
21-Mar
21-Mar
21-Mar
21-Mar
22-Jul
22-Jul
22-Jul
22-Jul
Lockdown Lockdown Lockdown Lockdown
xx% Average improvement in AQI post lockdown
Notes: Weekly AQI Information captured for 10:00 AM IST for the locations: 1. IGI Airport, New Delhi; 2. Bandra, Mumbai (in case of data unavailability - Vile Parle, Mumbai) ; 3. Alandur Bus
Depot, Chennai; 4. Jayanagar 5th Block, Bengaluru; In case of data unavailability on a particular date, average AQI level for preceding & succeeding date has been used for the YoY comparison
Air Quality Index is calculated by measuring 8 criteria of air pollutants (Particulate Matter or PM 2.5 & 10, Sulfur Dioxide, Carbon Monoxide, Nitrogen Dioxide, Ozone, Ammonia & Lead) 37
Source: Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB)
6
Mobility levels still low; recovery in visits to workplaces, grocery & SOCIAL
pharmacy stores as compared to Apr, however trend varies across states MOBILITY LEVELS
Data as of 19 Jul
Retail & Grocery & Public
Recreation Pharmacies Parks Transport Workplaces Residential
-60% -9% -51% -42% -31% 15%

Jun | -60% Jun | -3% Jun | -52% Jun | -38% Jun | -31% Jun | 15%
May | -76% May | -26% May | -59% May | -53% May | -44% May | 22%
Apr | -82% Apr | -52% Apr | -57% Apr | -68% Apr | -62% Apr | 29%
RJ -46 RJ 20 KE -7 RJ -26 RJ -16 MP 23
HR -50 UP 7 WB -38 KE -28 AP -21 TA 21
UP -54 MH 5 TA -42 GJ -31 KE -22 KA 20
MH -54 KE 1 UP -44 MH -32 MH -24 KE 20
GJ -58 WB -3 AP -50 AP -37 GJ -26 TN 18
AP -58 HR -4 GJ -60 TN -41 UP -27 DL 17
DL -59 AP -7 RJ -60 WB -43 WB -27 AP 17
KE -59 GJ -10 TN -60 KA -43 HR -29 GJ 15
WB -60 TN -12 MH -61 TA -44 TA -35 WB 14
TN -62 TA -19 KA -67 UP -45 TN -37 HR 12
KA -64 KA -21 MP -68 HR -45 DL -41 MH 11
TA -64 DL -26 HR -75 DL -55 KA -42 UP 11
MP -72 MP -29 DL -83 MP -60 MP -47 RJ 6
National Average National Average National Average National Average National Average National Average
Methodology: Insights based on aggregated, anonymized sets of data from users who have turned on the Location History setting, which is off by default.
The data shows how visitors to (or time spent in) categorized places change compared to our baseline days
Note: RJ – Rajasthan; UP – Uttar Pradesh, HR – Haryana; MP – Madhya Pradesh; AP – Andhra Pradesh; GJ – Gujarat; KE- Kerala; WB – West Bengal; KA – Karnataka; DL – Delhi, TA – Telangana;
TN – Tamil Nadu; MH – Maharashtra (Largest states by GSDP) The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020 38
Source: BCG Analysis. Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report – India – Jul 1 to Jul 19, 2020
7
TV consumption and smartphone usage observed a marked increase SOCIAL
TV & SMARTPHONE
in peak lockdown, stabilized to increase by 6-7% by Jun-Jul USAGE
Steep increase of ~18%2 in avg. daily TV

Smartphone usage saw an increase of 16% in peak lockdown period; stabilized in
viewing duration in beginning of
Jun-Jul at 15 min increase vs. pre COVID-19 - shifts across categories observed
lockdown; stabilized gradually in May-Jun
Avg. daily TV viewing (min) Avg. daily consumption (min) Daily consumption (% category split)
Categories Pre COVID-19 3-Jul
14 mins, 6% 15 mins, 7%
News 2% 2%
Gaming 11% 12%
267 256 214 227 234 223 215 217
226 241 230 235 240 202 Social
14% 14%
Networking
Video on
15% 15%
Demand
1-May
1-May
22-May
22-May
12-Jun
12-Jun
Pre COVID-19
Pre COVID-19
3-Jul
3-Jul
20-Mar
20-Mar
10-Apr
10-Apr
Chat VOIP 16% 19%
For week ending For week ending
Others3 43% 39%
1. Pre-COVID-19: 11- 31 Jan; 2. % increase or decrease in comparison to pre-COVID-19 levels; 3. Other includes shopping e-commerce, digital payments, etc.
Source: BARC India – Nielsen Survey 39
8
App downloads witnessed a sharp spike in Apr'20; Health & Fitness SOCIAL
APP DOWNLOADS
and Gaming segments witnessed sustained increase in usage AND USAGE
Total application downloads1 reached a peak of ~235 Mn in Average active users1, 2 have remained broadly consistent
Apr-20, registering a growth of ~61% over Jan-20 with increase in Health & Fitness, Gaming categories
Application Downloads (Mn) Average Monthly Active Users (Mn)
+61%
-25%
+7%
235 65 66
61 61 62 62
9% 4% 3%
207 0% 3% 0% 4% 0% 3% 7% 6%
3%
11% 4% 4% 5% 7% 5% 5%
14% 177 9% 9% 9% 5% 7% 6%
174 4%
2% 8% 8% 11%
10% 15% 11% 16% 14% 13% 10%
146 13% 10%
1% 133 6% 5%
7% 8% 12% 15%
7% 2% 14% 12% 8% 16% 15%
9% 17%
15% 7% 24% 13%
14% 20% 25%
20% 22%
17%
19% 15% 58% 56%
21% 11% 52% 54% 54%
21% 14% 50%
31% 30% 28% 22% 22% 23%
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
Health & Fitness News, Magazines and Education Shopping Finance Gaming Entertainment Social Networking
1. Categories and applications included for analysis based on categories tracked as per App Annie database and for top applications tracked in each of these category; Application 40
downloads and Active Users data consists both Android and IOS marketplace 2. Refers to average of active users in each day of the month
Source: App Annie
9
Consumer sentiment still at 50%+ lower levels as compared to pre- SOCIAL
CMIE CONSUMER
COVID-19; sentiment in rural slightly better than urban SENTIMENT SURVEY
Data as of 27 Jul
CMIE Consumer Sentiment Survey Rural Consumer Sentiment Index
150
Sample Size
103 103 102 100
• 1.74L households in 90 cities and 969 villages 100
surveyed over 4 months 54 52 50
50 43 44 47 43 44 45 41 45 43 45 43 41 49 48 43
Methodology
• Longitudinal survey: Same set of households 0
03-May
10-May
17-May
24-May
31-May
07-Jun
14-Jun
21-Jun
28-Jun
05-Jul
12-Jul
19-Jul
26-Jul
01-Mar
08-Mar
15-Mar
22-Mar
29-Mar
12-Apr
05-Apr
19-Apr
26-Apr
surveyed in batches over time
– Scoring based on 5 questions:
Urban Consumer Sentiment Index
– Perception of current well-being
150
– Expectations of future well-being
– Perceptions of current economic 103 101 101 95
100
conditions of the country
48
– Perceptions of prospective economic 50 39 41 42 40 35 35 35 35 35 38 38 37 41 43 44 41 40
conditions of the country
– Household's propensity to spend on 0
3-May
10-May
17-May
24-May
31-May
7-Jun
14-Jun
21-Jun
28-Jun
5-Jul
12-Jul
19-Jul
26-Jul
1-Mar
8-Mar
15-Mar
22-Mar
29-Mar
12-Apr
5-Apr
19-Apr
26-Apr
consumer durables
41
Source: CMIE Consumer Pyramids Survey, BCG analysis
We would be glad to share further details on these 50+ high frequency indicators
Epidemiological Economic
Industrial Activity Financial Services Macro-economic Indicators
1 State-level Indicators 10 Power Consumption 21 Aggregate Bank Deposits 31 Govt. Revenue & Expenditure
(MoHFW/covid19india.org—daily) (POSOCO—daily) (RBI—fortnightly) (Ministry of Finance, CGA—monthly)
2 Disease Progression 11 Fuel Consumption 32 GST Collections
(MoHFW/covid19india.org—daily) (PPAC—monthly) 22 Aggregate Bank Credit (GST Council—monthly)
(RBI—fortnightly)
12 Index of Industrial Production 33 Govt. Tenders Volume & Value
Public Policy (MoSPI—monthly) (Projects Today database—ad-hoc)
23 Retail Transactions (incl. UPI)
13 Index of Core Industries (NPCI—monthly) 34 MGNREGA Employment Trend
(Ministry of Comm. & Industry—monthly) (Ministry of Rural Development—monthly)
3 Fiscal & Monetary Relief Measures
35 Employment Indicators
(PIB, Ministry of Finance, RBI—ad-hoc) Trade Sector-wise Impact (EPFO, Naukri.com—monthly)
4 RBI Policy Measures 14 Import-Export (Merchandize) 24 Steel Consumption 36 Inflation Indices (CPI & WPI)
(RBI—monthly) (Ministry of Comm. & Industry—monthly) (JPC, Ministry of Steel—monthly) (MOSPI, Office of Economic Advisor—monthly)
Social 15 Import-Export (Services) 25 Cement Production Sentiment

(RBI—monthly) (Ministry of Comm. & Industry—monthly)
37 Purchasing Managers Index
5 Air Quality Index Logistics 26 Auto Sales (IHS Markit—monthly)
(CPCB—daily) (SIAM—monthly) 38 NIFTY Sectoral Indices
16 Railway Freight Traffic
(Bloomberg—daily)
6 Mobility Levels (Ministry of Railways—monthly) 27 Fertilizer Sales
(mSMF—monthly) 39 Stock Market Transactions
(Google—daily) 17 E-Way Bill Volume (NSE, BSE—daily)
(GST Network—monthly)
7 TV & Smartphone Usage 28 Pharmaceutical Sales 40 India Volatility Index
(BARC, Nielsen—weekly) 18 FASTag Transactions (AIOCD—monthly) (NSE—daily)
(NPCI—monthly)
Chemical Production 41 AUM in Mutual Funds
8 App Downloads & Usage 19 Air Freight Traffic 29
(AMFI—monthly)
(App Annie—daily) (American Chemistry Council—monthly)
(Airport Authority of India—monthly) 42 Foreign Equity Inflow
9 Consumer Sentiment Survey 20 JNPT Container Traffic 30 Insurance Gross Premium (Bloomberg—daily)
(CMIE—weekly) (JNPT—monthly) (IRDAI—monthly) 43 PE/VC Investments
(Venture Intelligence—monthly)
44 GDP Forecasts 42
Source: BCG analysis (Rating Agencies—ad-hoc)
BCG can support you in leading the new reality
Proprietary analytical Latest insights on Demand Sentinel Experience in designing Expertise in informed
suite to support strategic consumer sentiment dashboard to assess customer journeys at decision making, bringing
decision making & reflecting COVID-19 demand at district / scale across industry in learnings from global
dynamic monitoring impact micro-market level sectors crisis response
Consumer End-to-end Digital Next-gen Sales in the
Lighthouse by BCG Demand Sentinel
Sentiments & Insights Customer Journeys New Reality
Experience in developing Experience in BCG's 3600 A&M BCG's proprietary & Brings Agile ways of
sustainable world-class rationalizing cost Supercharger identifies proven approach working to the
end-to-end digital supply structures across sectors the right commercial to organic growth organization, gearing
chain capabilities activation levers creation employees for success
Marketing Demand Centric

Digital Supply Chain Zero Based Budgeting Agile at Scale
Supercharger Growth
43
Engage as a partner
We will partner with you to navigate this crisis, and pro-actively plan and
transform to manage the continuously evolving situation
Plan for the 'new reality'

We will drive an assessment of the 'new reality', what it means
for you and how can you quickly pivot to make the most of it
Support on immediate priorities
We will work with you to deep-dive on critical priorities to
layout a detailed action plan and drive it to swift action
How can BCG Capitalize on emerging opportunities

We will work with you to scan for emerging new
help you? opportunities (M&A, diversification) to enable acting early
Bringing best-practices to you

We will bring in the latest learnings, trends and best-
practices from around the world
44
The services and materials provided by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) are subject to BCG's Standard Terms
(a copy of which is available upon request) or such other agreement as may have been previously executed by BCG.
BCG does not provide legal, accounting, or tax advice. The Client is responsible for obtaining independent advice concerning
these matters. This advice may affect the guidance given by BCG. Further, BCG has made no undertaking
to update these materials after the date hereof, notwithstanding that such information may become outdated
or inaccurate.
The materials contained in this presentation are designed for the sole use by the board of directors or senior management of
the Client and solely for the limited purposes described in the presentation. The materials shall not be copied or given to any
person or entity other than the Client (“Third Party”) without the prior written consent of BCG. These materials serve only as
the focus for discussion; they are incomplete without the accompanying oral commentary and may not be relied on as a
stand-alone document. Further, Third Parties may not, and it is unreasonable for any Third Party to, rely on these materials
for any purpose whatsoever. To the fullest extent permitted by law (and except to the extent otherwise agreed in a signed
Disclaimer
writing by BCG), BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any Third Party, and any Third Party hereby waives any rights and
claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the services, this presentation, or other materials, including the
accuracy or completeness thereof. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration
for the foregoing.
BCG does not provide fairness opinions or valuations of market transactions, and these materials should not be relied on or
construed as such. Further, the financial evaluations, projected market and financial information, and conclusions contained
in these materials are based upon standard valuation methodologies, are not definitive forecasts, and are not guaranteed by
BCG. BCG has used public and/or confidential data and assumptions provided to BCG by the Client. BCG has not
independently verified the data and assumptions used in these analyses. Changes in the underlying data or operating
assumptions will clearly impact the analyses and conclusions.
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care
prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. This presentation is not intended
to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or
recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate
course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area,
particularly the most recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision.
45
THANK YOU

BCG Covid India Post Analysis

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

BCG Covid India Post Analysis

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

COVID-19

Version: 28 July 2020

COVID-19 is a global Imperative to assess the COVID-19 impact across

Trends across key economic indicators

a case-doubling rate of 42 days2 PROGRESSION

Confirmed cases per million Total # of confirmed cases

185 16.5M 654k

Social 15 Import-Export (Services) 25 Cement Production Sentiment

Data as of 27 Jul Ladakh

Data as of 27 Jul Deaths Recovered Active cases

Total cases 28k 152k 509k 1.5M

Active cases 21k 83k 197k 497k

Days Doubling Rate 10 14 19 19

Recovery Rate 22% 43% 58% 64%

Test Positivity Rate 4.0% 4.5% 6.2% 8.6%

Fatality Rate 3.1% 2.9% 3.1% 2.3%

Key Trends Daily Average Power IIP2 (Index of Industrial Consumption of

reserved. Updated 28 July 2020.

Services Trade Merchandize Trade

volumes in Jun-20 LOGISTICS

Railway freight traffic FASTag transaction E-way bills1 generated

• Railway freight traffic

shown an uptick in May-20 vs. Apr-20 LOGISTICS

Key Trends JNPT Container

Q4'20 vs. 10.5% in Q4'19)

• Bank credit observed slight

Decline in YoY growth rate2 > Jan-20 <= Jan-20

Cash2 Physical3 Digital4 (incl. UPI) YoY growth

sectors; No recovery in index of chemical production as of May-20 SECTOR-WISE IMPACT

Key Trends Pharmaceutical Sales Fertilizer Sales Indian Chemical

Central Govt. Revenue & Expenditure Total GST Collections3

Expenditure & Receipts (INR Tn)

Total GST Collections (INR Tn)

Gross Fiscal Deficit (INR Tn)

Minimal drop in project value in Apr-20

Source: Project Today database, BCG analysis 23

MGNREGA1: Job demand under the scheme has jumped sharply

Work Demand (households, in Mn) • Spike in demand for MGNREGA jobs by

Naukri Jobspeak Index Net new EPF Subscriber (in Mn)

Naukri Jobspeak Index Net New EPF Subscriber Trend

Monthly inflation rate (in %)

Wholesale Price Index (WPI)2 Consumer Price Index (CPI)1

Manufacturing PMI Services PMI

1. Growth rate vs. 01-Feb-20 28

Key Trends Stock Market Transactions Mutual Funds AUM2

Transaction Value ( INR) k Cr

India Volatility Index (VIX)1

-1,000 India New FDI rules

Total deal value of PE/VC investments1 ($ Bn)

India GDP growth forecast for FY21 (YoY, %)

-3.9 -1.9 -3.9 -10.1 -10.2 -10.5 -10.8 -11.8 -11.8

Data as of 27 Jul NON - EXHAUSTIVE

• Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan – Tranche 3: Agriculture and allied

Data as of 27 Jul NON - EXHAUSTIVE

Special Liquidity ~ ₹ 3K Cr for 5 • "One Nation One Ration Card" system:

Reserve bank’s policy rates (%) MCLR1 of scheduled commercial banks

Policy rate % MCLR (%)

across metro cities AIR QUALITY INDEX

New Delhi Mumbai Chennai Bengaluru

500 500 500 500

400 400 400 400

300 300 300 300

200 200 -26% 200 200 -40%