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us whether an hypothesis relative to a certain group of hIe, and man as an unfinished and endless enterprise.
material facts is adequate or not. The best ground for The differences in method, kind of statements, and
this methodological TUle is, that previous experience has referents that separate the facLUai fTom the formal sci.
shown mankind that knowledge of fact is not convention. ences precludes their joint examination after a certain
ai, that if understanding and control of facts are sought, paint. Being serious, rigorous and orten useful fiction,
experience must be r elied on. But experience will not but fi ction at last, fonnal science requires a special treat·
warrant that the concerned hypothes is be the tTUe one: it ment. In the following we shall concentrate on factua l
will only tell us that our hypothesis is probably adequate, science-which is, after all, what is usually meant by 'sc i.
without thereby excluding the possibility that furth er ence' in English. Let us take a glance at the peculiar
study could provide better approximations to the concep- characteristics of (he sciences of nature and cu lLUre in their
tual reconstruction of the given piece of reali ty. Factual present state, hoping that future sc ience will enrich its
knowledge, though rationa l, is essent ially probable; to put qualities-Dr, at least, that future civil izations will make
it in other words: scientific inference is a net of both de- a better use of sc ientific knowledge.
ductive (demonstrative) and probable (inconclusive) in- The essential traits of th e kind of knowledge at·
ferences. ta ined by the sciences of nalure and soc iety arc ratiollality
The formal sciences demonstrate or prove; the fa c- and objectivity. By 'rational knowledge' is meant:
tual sciences verify (confirm or infirm) hypotheses that (a) that it is mad e of concepts, judgments, and rea~
are for the most part provisional. Demonstration is com- sonings, not of sensations, images, pattern s of behavior,
plete and final ; verification is incomplete and therefore etc. The scientist certai nly perceives, fram es picLUres
temporary. The very natu re of the scientific method pre- (e.g., visualizable models), and makes operations; but
cludes the final confirmation of factual hypotheses. In· both the starting point of his work and the end product
deed, scientists seek not only to accumulate evidence for o( it are ideas;
their assumptions by multiplying their instances: they also
try to obtain evidences against their hypotheses, on the log. (b) that these ideas ca n be comb ined in accord·
ical principle that a single conclus ion that is not found to ance with some set of logical rules, so as to prod uce new
agree wi th facts has more weight than one thousand can· ideas (deductive inference); these are not new from a
firmation s. Therefore, while fonnal theories are amen· strictly logica l point of view, since they are entail ed by
able to a state of perfection (or stagnation), theoretical the premises of the deduction: but they are epistemologic-
systems about [acts are, on the other hand, essent ially de· all y new, in so far as they express knowledge that was not
fective: they meet the n ecessary condition for perfectibili. realised prior to the deduction;
ty. Consequently, if the study of the formal sciences may (c) that those ideas do not pile up chaotically or
invigorate the habit of rigor, the study of the factual sci. just chronOlogically, but are organized in systems of ideas,
ences may induce us to regard the world as inexhausti. lInt is, in ordered sets of propositions (theories);
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That the scicmi(ic knowledge of reality is objective, for theoretical elaboration. A subclass of empirical data
means: is of a quantitative kind; numerical and metrical data
(a) that it agrees approximately with its object: arc ohen arranged in tabl es. the most important of them
i.e., that it seeks the attainment of factual truth; being the tables of constants (such as the melting points
of di[ferenc subsLances). But the gathering of data and
(b) that it verifies the adaptation of ideas to facts their subsequent arrangement in tables is not the main
by r esorti ng to a peculiar commerce with facts (observa- target of research: such infonnation has to be el~bodied
tion and experiment). an intercourse that is both COIl- in theories if it is to become a tool {or understandmg and
trallable and rcproducib\ to a certain extent. application. What i.s the use of knowing the speci.fic
Both fcatures of f tual science, rationality and ob- gravity of iron if we have no formula by means of whIch
jectivity, arc intimate~ welded to each other. Thus, [or we can relate it to other quantities?
instance, what is IIsna Iy verified by means of experiment
It is not always possibl e, or even desirabl e. to respect
is some conscq lienee drawn in a deductive way-from
facts enti rely when analysing them, and there is no science
an hypothesis; again, calc ulus not only fo llows observa-
without analysis. even though analysis is but the way of
tion but is always indispensable in planning and record-
reconstructing wholes. The atomic physicist disturbs the
ing it. The rationality and objectivity of scient ific knowl-
atOm he wishes to peep into; the biologist changes and
edge ca n be analysed illlo a host of characteristics that
may even kill the Jiving being he is analysing; the anthro-
shall be reviewed in the following.
pologist engaged in a field study of a community provokes
in it certa in modifications. Ne ither oE them grasps his
3. Au iuventory of the l\Jnin Features object such as it is, but as modified by his OW11 opera-
of Factual Science tions; however, in every case such changes are objective,
( I) Sciellafic kllowledge is factual: it starts from and it is presumed that they are understandable in terms
facts, respects them up to a certain point, and goes al- of laws: they are nOt arbi trarily conjured lip by th e ex-
ways back to them. &ience seeks to describe and explain perimenter. Moreover, in every case the investigator
facts as they are, independently from their emotional or tries to describe the characteristics and the amount of the
commercial valuc: science neither poetizes nor sells facts. disturbance he produces in the act of experiment; he
although its exploits are a source of poetry and business. seeks, in short. to estimate the deviation or "error" pro-
In all fields. sc ience begins by establishing the facts; this duced by his active intervention. Because sc ientists act
requires impersonal curiosity. distrust of prevailing op in- on the tacit assumption that the world would exist even
ion. and sensitivity to newness. in their absence-though, of course, not exacliy alike.
Confirmed statements about facts are usually called (2) Scientific lwowledge goes beyond facts: it dis-
'empirical data'; they are obtained with the help of theo- cards fa cts, produces fresh facts. and explains facts. Com·
ries (however sketchy) and are in tum the raw material man sense starts from facts and sticks to them: it ohen
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confines itself to the isolated fact, it does not go very far Iy existent things, qualities or relations. (We do not per-
in correlating it with other facts or in its explanation. Sci- ceive electric fields or social classes, but infer their exist-
entific research, on the other hand. does not limit itself ence from experientiable facts, and such concepts are
to observed facts: scientists squeeze reality in order to get meaningful only in certain theoretical contexts.)
beyond appearances; they reject the bulk of perceived This going beyond immediate experience, this jump
facts as being a mass of accidents, they select what they [rom the obsen'ational to the theoretical level enables sci-
regard as the relevant facts, they control and, whenever ence to regard with suspicion statements suggested by
possible, they reproduce fa cts in experiment. They even mere coincidences; it enables science to predict the ac-
produce new things. from instruments to elementary par- tual existence of things and processes at first sight occult,
ticles; they make new chemicals, new vegetal and animal but which more powerful instruments (ma terial or con-
varieties and, at least in principle. th ey create new pat- cepwal) may disclose. Discrepancies between theoretical
terns of individual and social behavior. expectations and empirical findi ngs are among th e strong.
Moreover, scientists do not lIsua lly accept new factS est st imuli for the framing of new theories and the design
unless they can somehow certify their authenticity; and o( new experimellls. Not facts by themselves, but. their
this is done, not so milch by contrasti ng them to other theoretical processi ng and the comparison o( the conse-
facts, but by Showing that they are consistent with what quences of such theories with observational data, are per-
is known. Scientists dismiss fakes and magic tricks be- haps the main source of discovery of new [acts.
cause they do not fit very general and safe hypotheses (3) Science is analytic: scientific research attacks
that have been tried countless times. That is, scientistS circumscribed problems one at a time and attempts LO
do not regard their own individual experience as an un- decompose everything illlo elcmCIllS (not necessari ly ulti-
appealable court: they rely, instead, both on collective mate or even real). Scienti£ic research does not pose it-
experien~e and on theory. self questions such as "How is the world at large?", or
Furthermore, sc ientific knowledge rationalises expe- ··H ow is knowledge pOssible?" It tries instead to under-
rience instead of confining itself to describing it: the sci- stand every total situation in terms of its components; it
ent ific account of facu does not consist in their inventory tries to disclose the elements that make up every whole,
but in their expla nation by means of hypotheses (not- and to discover the interconnections that expla in its in-
ably, law statements) and systems of hypotheses (theo. tegrality.
ries). Scientists conjecture what is behind obsen'ed facts, The problems of science are partial; moreover, in
and they continually invent conceptS (such as those of the beginning they are narrow or have to be narrowed.
atom, field, mass, energy, adaptation, integration, selec- But as research proceeds its scope is widened. T he re-
tion, soc ial class, or historical trend) that have no em- sults of science are general, both in the sense that thcy
pirical counterpart, i.e., that do not correspond to per- refer to classes of objecu (e.g., rain) and that they are,
c~Pts, although they are supposed to refer to objective- or tend to become, embodied in conceptual syntheses
METASCIE~TIFIC QUERIES METASCIENTIFIC QUERIES 41
called theories. Analysis, both of questions and of things, Even less tenable is the dichotomy deductive/ inductive,
is not so much a goal in itself as a tool for building the- as every scientific pursuit (even in the formal sciences) is
Ot'clical syntheses. Genuine science is neither atomistic both deductive and inductive, not to speak of further
nor wholistic. types of inference.
Research begins by decomposing its object in order Specialisation has not prevented the formation of in-
to discover the inner "mechanism" responsible for the tcrdisc ipl inary fields, such as biophysics, biochemistry,
obscrved phenomena. But the dismantling of the "mech- psychophysiology, social psychology, theory of informa-
anism" does not stop when the nature of its p.:1.rts has tion, or cybernetics. However. specialisation does tend to
been invest igated: the inquiry into their interdepend- narrow the outlook of the individual scientist; a single
ence is the next step, and the final stage is the tentative remedy has proved helpful against professional onesided-
reconstitution of the whole in tcnn of its interconnected ness (whidl often degenerates into professional short-
parts. Analysis does not involve the neglect of wholeness; sightedness) , and that is a dose of philosophy.
far from dissolving integration, analysis is the sole known
way of discovering how wholes emerge, subsist, and dis- (5) Scientijic knowledge is clear (md precise: its
solve. Science docs not ignore synthesis; what it does re- probl ems are distinct, its res u Its accurate. Ordinary
ject is lhe irrationa list claim that syntheses can be grasped knowledge, on the other hand, is usua lly vague and in-
by a special intuition without previous analysis. accurate: in evcryday liEe we care liLLIe for precise defi-
nitions, accurate descriptions, or ex.act measurements: if
(1) Scientijic research is specialized: A conse- we ca red too much we would not be able to keep the
quence of the analytic approach to problems is specialisa- p..1.ce of life. Science renders precise what is known to
lion. NOlwi thstanding the unity of scientific method, its common sense in a hazy way; but, of course, sc ience is far
application depends, to a large ex.tent, on the subject more than organized common sense: although it stems
mauer; this explains the multiplicity of techniques, and from common sense, science const itutes a revolt against
the relative independence of the various sections of science. its superficiality and vagueness. Scientific knowledge
Thc diversity of sciences should not, however, be ex- seeks precision; it is never entirely free from vagueness,
aggerated to the point of obscuring their methodological but it manages to improve accuracy; it is never altogether
unity. The old dualism mauer/ spirit suggested the divi- free from error, but it possesses a unique technique for
sion of science between Nalurwisse1lSchajten and Geistes- detecting mistakes and for taking advantage of them.
wisse1lScJUljtell; however, these genera differ as LO subject Clarity and precision are obta ined in science in the
maller, technique, and level of development, but not as following ways:
regards aim, method, and scope. The dualism reason / ex-
perience has in tum suggested the division of science (a) Questions are stated in a clear, definite way;
into rational and empirical, which is not adequate ei ther, the first and sometimes most difficult problem is to dis-
because factual science is both rational and empirical. tinguish what the problems are; no analytic or experi-
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Therefore scientists regard secrecy in scientific matters hypothesis, and on ~e avai.l~ble. me~ns. A multitude of
as inimical to scientific progress; the policy of scientific techniques of empi n cal venbcauon IS thcrefore necessary.
secrecy is, in fact, the most effective producer of stagna- The verification of the fonnula of a chemical compound
t ion in culture. technology. and economics. as well as a is made along lines very different from the ~erification
source of moral corruption. of an astronomical compmation, or a hypothesIs concern-
ing the past of rocks or of men. Vcrificati~n t~hniq~les
(7) Scientific knowledge is verifiable: it must pass c\'olve in time; however, they always conSIst III lesung
the test of experience. In order to explain a set of phe- particular consequences of general hypotheses (among
nomena, the scient ist [Tames conjectures somehow ground. them, law statemen tS) . . They always boi l down to show-
cd on prev iolls knowledge. His assumptions may be cau- ing that there is-or that there is not-somc ground to
tious or audaciolls, si mple or complex; at any rate, they believe that the given assumptions fit the observed facts
have to be tested. T he lest of factual hypotheses is em- or th e meas llred values.
pirical, that is, observational or experimental. The rea li- Verifiability belongs to thc esscnce oE sc ientific
sation of this now trite truth is the imperishable contribu- knowledge: were it not, it could not be sai d that scien-
tion of Hell enistic science. In this sense, scient ific ideas tists try to obtai n objective knowledge.
(in cluded law state mentS) stand not higher than tools or
(8) Scicntific research is methodicfll: it is not cr-
garments: if they fai l in practice, they fai l altogether.
ratic but planned. Research workers do not grope in
Experiment may go deeper than observation, be- the dark: they know what they are after :md how to find
calise it effccts changes instead of merely recording varia- it. The planning of research docs not exclude chance;
tions: it isolates and comrols the sensitive variables. How- only, in making room for unforeseen even ts, it is possible
evcr, experimental results are seldom interpretable in a to lake advantage from chance interfercnce and from un-
si ngle way; moreover, experiment is not possible in all expected novelLy. Moreover, chance is sometimes delib-
factual sciences; and a high degTee of accuracy can be erately produced by th e investigator. Thus, in order to
atlai ned in chapters of astronomy and economics without ensure uniformity in the sample under considera tion, and
the help of experiment. FaClUal science is therefore em- to prevent unconscious bias in the selection of its mem-
pirical in the sense that the tcst of its hypotheses involves bers, the technique of randomisation is of len employed,
experience; but it need not be experimerltal and, in par- in which the decision abollt th e individuals that are to
t icul ar, it is not exha usted by laboratory sciences sllch as enter a certain group is left to co ins or other devices.
physics. Thereby, the investigator puts chance in the service of or-
The prescription that scienti fic hypotheses must be derliness_in which there is no paradox, because random-
capable of passing the test of experience is one of the rules ness works at the individ ual level, whereas orderliness
of the scienti fi c method; the application of this rule de- operates in the group as a whole.
pends on the kind of subject, on the type of the concerned Every research work is based on previous knowledge,
METASCIENTIFIC QUERIES MET ..\SCIE:>:TIFIC QUERIES 47
and p.1.rticularly on reasonably well confirmed conjec- the way science inquires into the unknown. Subordinat-
tures. (O ne of th e mai n problems of methodology is pre- ed to the general rules of scientific method, and at the
cisely to investigate what are the criteria for deciding same time supporting them, we find the various tech-
whether a given hypothesis can be regarded as reasonably niques employed in the special sciences: techniques [or
well confirmed: that is. whether the weight from induc- weighing, for observing through the microscope. for an-
tive and other grou nds is enough to keep the hypothe- alysing chemical compounds. (or drawing charts summa-
sis.) Research proceeds, moreover, on rules and tech- rizing empirical data, for gathering data about customs,
niques that have proved successful in the past, but which etc. Science is, then, the slave of its own methods and
are cont inuall y being improved. not only in the light of techn iques while these are successful; but it is free to
new ex perience. but also as a resu lt of mathematical and multiply and change its rul es at any time, for the sa ke
philosophica l examination. One such rule of procedure of greater rationality and greater objectivity.
oC faCLUal scie nce is the followi ng: The relevant variables
(or those suspected to be sensi tive) should be varied one (9) Scientific knowledge is systematic: a science is
at a time. not an aggregate of disconnected informations but a sys-
tem of ideas iogirally conn ected among each oth er. Ev-
Factual science empl oys the experimental method, as ery system of ideas, characterized by a certain peculiar
conceived in a large sense. This meth od consists in the
basic (but r ejectable) set of hypotheses, and intended to
empirical test of particular conclusions drawn from gen- fit a certain class of facts, is a theory. Every chapter of a
eral hy(Xltheses (such as "Gases exp.1.nd when heated," or special science contains theories or systems of ideas logic-
"Men revolt when oppressed") . This kind of verifica- all y related to each other, that is. ordered by means of
tion requires th e handling, observation, and record of the relation "entai ls." This connection among ideas may
phenomena; it further requires the control of the rele- be termed organ ic, in the sense that the replacement of
vant variables or factors; whenever possible it should in-
any of the basic assumptions prod uces an overa ll change
clude the deliberate anificial production of the con-
in the theory or set of theories.
cerned ph enomena, and in all cases it demands the analy-
sis of the data found in the course of the empirical proce- The foundations of a given theory is not a set of
dures. Raw isolated data are unreliable and useless: facts but rather a set of principles, or hypotheses of some
they have to be processed, organized, and confronted with degree of generality (hence, of certa in logical fertility).
th eoretical conclusions. The conclusions (of theorems) may be drawn from the
principl es eith er in the ordinary way or with the help of
Scientific method does not provide infallible recipes
for the finding of truth: it just conta ins a set of falli ble special techniques involving mathematical operations.
(improvable) prescriptions for the plann ing of observa- The systematic character of scientific knowledge-
tions and experiments, for the interpretation of their re- that is, the fact that it is founded, ordered, and internally
sults, and for the very posing of questions. It is, in short, consistent- is what makes it rational. Rationality eu-
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abies scientific progress to be effected not only through bosom of the singulars themselves; that is, he does not re-
gradual accumulation of resu lts, but also through revolu- gard the universals ante rem nor post rem, but in reo
tions. Scientific revolutions afC not discoveries of new A medieval schoolman would classify the modern scien-
isolated facts, nor arc they improvements in the accuracy tist as an immancntist r ealist: because. by brushing ir-
of observation, but consist in lhe replacement of compre- rel evances aside, by trying to discover the traits common
hens ive hypotheses (principles) by new axioms, and in the to individuals unique in other respects, by seeking the rel-
substitution of new theoretical systems for entire theo- evant variables (or essential qua lities) a nd the constant
ri es. Such revolutions arc, however, often elicited by the relations among them (the laws), the sc ientist attempts to
discovery of new facts that were not accounted for by the discover the essen tial nature of things natural and human.
o lder th eories, though somet imes fou nd in the process of Scientific language contains not only terms desig-
their checking; and new theories become testable, in many nating si ngu lar facts and individual experiences but also
cases, thanks to the invention of new, morc precise tech· general terms referring to cl asses of facts. The generality
niqucs of measurement. of the language of science is nOt, however, designed to
estrange sc ience from concrCte reali ty: generali;mlion is,
(10) SciClltific Iwowledge is general : it places si n- all the contrary, the sole known method for gctting
gular facts in general patterns, and p.1.rticular statements closer to concreteness, for grasping the essence oE things
in comprehensive schemes. The scien tist deals with the (their essential qualities and laws). The scientist there-
singular fact to the extent to which it is a member of a by avoids to some extent the confusions and dece its pro-
class, or an instance of a law; moreover, he assumes ev- ,'oked by the dazzling flux of phenomena. Nor is useful-
ery fact to be classifiable and lawfu l. It is not that sci- ness drowned in generality: on the contrary, the general
ence ignores the individual thing or the unrepeatable schemes of science fit an unlimited number of specific
event: what it ignores is the isol ated fact. This is why instances, providing widely embracing laws subsuming
science has no lise for empirical data (which are always and con ecl ing all the valid recipes of common sense a nd
singular) as stich; they are dumb as long as they arc not o[ prescienti[ic lechniqu e.
manipulated ·and converted into pieces of theoreLical
frameworks. ( II ) Scientific knowledge is lawful: it seeks Jaws
An ontOlogical principle underlying scientific re- (of nature a nd of culture) and appli es them. Scient ific
search is, indeed, that variety and even uniqueness in know ledge inserts singular facts in general patterns ca ll ed
some respect..s are consistent with unifonnity and gen erali- 'laws o( nature' or 'laws of society.' Behind the disorder
ty in a dler respects. The chemist is not interested in th is and fluidity of appea.rances factual sc ience discovers the
or that fire, but in the process of combustion in general; regular patterns of structure and process, of being and be-
he tries to disclose that which all singulars share. The comi ng. To the extent to which science is lawful , it is
scient ist attempts to disclose the universals hiding in the esscllli alistic: it a ttempts to go to thc root of things. 1t
METASCIENTIf'IC QUERIES METASCI ENTIFIC QUERJES 51
finds essence in the relevant variables and III the invar- requires the invention of radically new tools to cope with
iant relations among them, Illen tal and cultural phenomena, just as the birth of modern
There are laws of facts and laws by means of which mechanics should have been impossible without the differ-
other laws can be explained . Archimedes' principle b e- ential calculus.
longs to the former class; but it can in, tum be d~rived But further progress in the legalization of non-physical
fro m the general principles of mechamcs: hence It has phenomena requires, above all , a n ew attitude towards the
ceased being an independem principle and is now a the- very concept of scielllific law. In the first place, it must be
orem deducible from highcr-level hypotheses. The laws realised that there are many types of laws (even within a
of physics afford the basis of the law~ of ch~mical c~m single science), none of Lbem being necessarily better than
binatiolls; the laws of physiology explalll certam psycillcal the remaining types. ]n the second place, it should become
phenomena; and the laws of econom ics belong to the foun-
common knowledge among culture scientists that laws are
dations of sociology. Law statements are lherefore or- not found just by observation and recording. but by testing
ganized in a level structure. hypotheses: law statements are, indeed, nothing but con·
Law statements are certai nly transitory; bllt are the firmed hypotheses. And how should we set out to frame
laws th emselves immutable? If laws are regarded as the scielllific hypotheses if we did not entertain the presump-
very patterns of being and becoming. then th~y should tion that every single fact is legal?
change alongside things themselves; at least, It should
be conceded that, when n ew levels emerge, their pecu- (12) S,;e'lce is expfa'lalory: it attempts to expla in
liar qualities are related by new laws. Thus, the laws facts in terms of laws, and laws in terms of principles_ &i-
of economics have emerged in the course of history on enlists are not satisfied with detai led descriptions: besides
the basis of other laws (biological and psychological pat- inquiring how things are, scientists try to answer whys:
terns) and, moreover. some of them change with the type why events happen as they do and not othenvise. Science
of socia l organ ization. deduces propositions referring to singular facts from general
Of course, not every single fact known to science has laws. and laws from still more general nomological state-
already been converted into a particular case of a general men ts (principles). For instance, Kepler's laws explained
law; particularly, events and processes in the higher levels a collection of observed facts about planetary motion; and
have been legalized but to a small extent. But this is partly Newton explained those laws bydcriving them from general
due to the anciel1l prejudice that things human are not law- principles-which explanation enabled other astronomers
Eul, and also to the ancient Pythagorean belief that only to account for irregularities in the planets' orbits that were
numerical relationships deserve being called 'scientific unknown to Kepler.
laws'. The entire stock of conceptual tools should be em- Jt used to be believed that to explain means to point
ployed in the search for the laws of mind and cu lture; OUt the cause, but it is now bei ng recognized that causal
moreover, maybe the available stock is insufficient and explanation is just one type of scientific explanation. Sci-
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eutiHc explanation is always performed in terms of laws. and with scientific tools (laws, specific informations, and deduc-
causal Jaws are only a subclass of scientific laws. There are tions) ; such as is often the case with weather forecast, medi-
various types of scientific law a nd, conscque~1l1y, ~ varietr cal prognosis, and political prophecy. But, whereas proph-
of types of scientific explanation: morpholo~lcal, klnema,tl- ecy is not perfectible and cannot be used to test hypotheses,
cal, dynamical, of composition. of conservation, of associa- prediction is perfectible and, if unsuccessful, it forces us to
tion, of overall trends. dialectical, teleological, etc. correct our assumptions, thereby attaining a deeper under-
The history of science teaches us that scientific explana- standing. This is why successful prophecy does not add to
tions are unceasingly corrected or discarded. Does it mean theoretica l knowledge, whereas unsuccessful scientific pre-
that they are all false? In faclUai science truth and error are .
diction may contribute to it.
not entirely alien to each other: there are parlial truths and Since sciemi Eic prediction depends on laws and on
partial errors, good and poor approximations. Science does items of specific information, it Illay fail for want of accu-
not proceed like Penelope, but can find a use f,or the cloth racy in the law statements or in the available information.
that was woven yesterday. Scientific explanatlons are not (It may, of course, fail on account of some mistake in the
final but they are improvable. logica l or mathemati ca l process of inference leading from
the premises [laws and informations] to the conclusion
( 13) Scielltific kllowledge is fnediclive: it goes be- [predictive sta tement].) A major source of failure in predic-
yond the mass of experienced facts by figuring out how l~le tion is the set of assu mptions about the nature of the object
past may have been and how the future may look. PrediC- (physical systcm, living organism, socia l group, etc.) the be-
tion is, in the first place, an dfective way of testing hypothe- havior of which is to be predicted. \Ve may, for instance,
ses; but it is also the key to the control or even the modifi- believe that th e concerned system is isolated enough from
cation of the course of events. Scientific prediction, in external disturbances, while these actually Count in the long
COlllrast with prophecy, is based on laws and on specific run; isol ati on being a necessary condit ion for the descrip-
reliable informations regarding the present (or past) state tion of the system with a hand ful of law statements, it
oEaffairs. It is not of the type oE"E wil l occur," but rather should not be surprising why it is so difficult to predict
of this type: "E, will occur provided C I happens, because the behavior of open systems such as the ocean, the atmos-
whenever C occurs it is followed by or associated with E." phere, the living thing, or the human being.
('C' and 'E' designate kinds of events, whereas 'C I ' and 'E, ' Since scientific prediction is based on scientific laws,
denote the specific events that are predicted on the basis there are as many kinds of predictions as kinds of law state-
of the statement (s) linking C and E in general.) ments. Some laws enable us to predict individual resul ts-
Scientific prediction is characterized by its perfecti- not without some error if the prediction is about the value
bility rather than b y its certainty. Moreover, predictions of .some quantity. Other laws, while unable to tell us any-
made with the help of empirical rules of thumb are some- tiling about the behavior of individuals (atoms, person s,
times more accurate than predictions painfully contrived Ctc.) , arc the basis for the prediction of some general trends
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and collective properties of large collections of similar ele· one, is not SO much an accumulator of knowledge as a gene-
ments: they are the statistical laws. The laws of history are rator of problems. He therefore prefers the latest issues of
of this typc; this is wby prediction of individual events is the specialized journals to the textbooks, even though the
almost impossible in the field of history: only the general latter are vaster a nd more reliable deposits of truth than
course of events can be foreseen. the [onner. The modern research worker cherishes truth
bu t is not interested in ilTefutable theories. A theory may
( 14) Science is open: it acknowledges no a priori have remained untouched not so much because of its high
barriers to knowledge. 1£ a piece of factual knowledge is truth content as because nobody could find any use for it.
not in principle refutable, then it does not belong to science No empirical investigation is needed in order to prove the
but to some other fi eld. The notions about Ollr natural and tautology that not even' scientists marry spinsters.
social environment, or about the self, are not final: they Modern systems oE sc ienti fic knowledge are like grow-
are all in a state of flux, they arc all fallible. It is always ing organisms: while alive, they change wi thout pause.
conceivable that a new situat ion (new infonnation or new (Th is is one o[ the reasons why science is ethically valuabl e:
thcafetic., l work) may arise in which our ideas, however because it reminds us that correcti ng mistakes is as valuab le
established, can be shown to be inadequate in some respect. as making none, a nd trying new uncerLa in things is prefer-
&ience has no se lf-ev ident axioms; even the most general able to worshipping old guaranteed on es.) &ience, like
and safe principles of sc ience are postula tes that can be the organism, changes both innerl y and owi ng to its con·
corrected or replaced. As a consequence of the hypothetical tacts with its neighbors: by solving its specific problems and
character of law statements, and of the improvable nature by being useful in other fields.
of empirical data, science is not a closed dogmatic system
but an open controvertible one. Or, ra ther, science is open ( 15) Science is useful: because it seeks tTuth , science
as a system because it is fallible and consequclllly capable is effective in providing tools for both good and evil. Or.
of making progress. On the other hand. it may be argued dinary knowledge is usually concerned with achieving
that science is methodologically closed, not in the sense that results capable of being immediately a pplied ; thereby it is
the rules of scientific method are final, but in the sense that not true enough, whereby it cannot be efficient enough.
it is self-correcting: the sale req uirement of the verifiability When adequate knowledge of things is avai lable, it is pos-
of scientific hypotheses is sufficient to ensure scientific sible to handle them successfully. The usefulness of science
progress. is a consequence of its objecti vity: without necessarily at-
As soon as a sc ientific theory has been established, it tempting to achieve resu lts having an applica tion, research
is in danger of being refuted or, at least, of its range being provides them whether in the short or in the long run.
circumscribed. A closed system of factual knowledge. with- Modern society pays research because it has learned that
out further research, may be called wisdom-but is actually research " pays off." It is th erefore redundant to admonish
a detritus of science. The modem sage, unlike the ancient sciemisl'i to produce applicable knowledge: they cannot
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