Chapter 1

Renewables and climate change

U. Aswathanarayana

There is little doubt that the Renewables are the energy resources of the future, for
the simple reason that, unlike the fossil fuels, they do not get depleted when used.
Most are related to sun in some way. Sunlight produces solar energy directly. It indi-
rectly produces hydropower (through the movement of rain water), biomass (through
photosynthesis), and tidal power (through tides caused by moon and sun).
In the Baseline scenario (i.e. business-as-usual), CO2 concentrations would rise from
27 Gt in 2005 to 62 Gt in 2050, corresponding to rise of 385 ppm today to 550 ppm
of CO2 in 2050.
In the ACT Map scenario, CO2 emissions would peak around 34 Gt, and drop to
today’s levels by 2050, corresponding to the rise of CO2 concentration to 485 ppm by
2050. This would finally result in the stabilization of concentrations around 520 ppm.
In the BLUE Map scenario, which is most ambitious, CO2 concentrations would
stabilize at 450 ppm by 2050. Only the BLUE Map scenario is consistent with the long
term stabilization of CO2 at 450 ppm.
IPCC recommends the stabilization of CO2 levels at 450 ppm, in order to limit the
temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The above data is depicted in Fig. 1.1 (source: ETP, 2008, p. 51, © OECD-IEA).

1.1 P RO JE CT ED G R OWT H O F R E N EWA B L E S

The share of the total renewables in the world primary energy supply (TPES) in 2005,
was 12.7%. Coal: 25.3%, Oil: 35.0%, Natural gas: 20.6%; Non-renewable waste:
0.2%, Nuclear: 6.3%, Hydro: 2.6%, Renewable combustibles and wastes: 9.9%,
others: 0.57%.
8 Green Energy Technology, Economics and Policy

70
550
Baseline
Emissions (G† CO2) 60
ACT Map
50
455 BLUE Map
40 445
30 485
425
385 450–520
20 445
10
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Note: Figures refer to CO2 concentrations by volume (ppm CO2).

Figure 1.1 CO2 concentration profiles for the Baseline,ACT and BLUE Map scenarios
(Source: ETP, 2008, p. 51, © OECD-IEA)

20 000
Renewable power generation

18 000 Other
16 000 Tidal
14 000 Geothermal
(TWh/yr)

12 000 Biomass, waste

10 000
Solar CSP
8 000
6 000 Solar PV
4 000 Wind
2 000 Hydro
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Figure 1.2 Growth of renewable power generation in the BLUE Map scenario, 2000–2050

Product shares in the world renewable energy supply, 2005: Renewables com-
bustibles and waste: 78.6% (comprising liquid biomass: 1.6%, renewable municipal
waste: 0.7%, solid biomass/charcoal: 75.6%, gas from biomass: 0.9%); Wind: 0.6%,
hydro: 17.4%, solar/tide: 0.3%, geothermal: 3.2%.
The contribution of renewables to electricity generation increases from 18% in 2005
to 35% in 2050 in the ACT Map scenario, and 46% in the BLUE Map scenario. In
the BLUE Map scenario, electricity generation from renewables (wind, photovoltaics
and marine) is projected to rise to 20.6% (about 3 500 GW) by 2050.
Up to 2020, bulk of renewable energy production will come from biomass and
wind. After 2020, solar power production will become significant. Hydro will grow
continuously up to 2050, but this growth will achieve a plateau around 2030 to 2050,
because of the constraints of finding suitable sites. The contribution of hydro, wind
and solar will be roughly equivalent in 2050.
About two-thirds of solar power will be provided by solar PV, with the balance one-
third coming from Concentrating Solar Power (CSP). As the capacity factor of CSP is
higher than PV, CSP may account for 40% of the solar power generation.
 Renewables and climate change 9

The intermittency of solar power is not a problem as its peak coincides with the
demand for air-conditioning. Electricity storage capacity is sought to be increased
from 100 GW today to 500 GW by 2050 (in the form of pumped hydro storage,
underground compressed air energy, etc.) to cover the variability in the case of systems
like wind.
The BLUE Map scenario envisages a strong growth of renewables to achieve the
target of 450 ppm CO2 (Fig. 1.2; source: ETP, 2008, p. 88, © OECD-IEA).
Currently about 50% of the global population lives in urban areas, and this trend
is likely to continue in the future. Consequently, urban authorities have to figure out
ways of providing renewable energy services to the urban residents. Cities located on
the coast could tap the offshore wind energy and ocean energy. Building-integrated
solar PV (such as, solar shingles) would be most suitable to cities in low latitudes, with
good sunshine. Geothermal power could be developed for the use of cities located
near high heat-flow areas. Bioenergy is not usually suitable for the cities, except those,
which have forests nearby.