‫مساق الحوسبة البرمجية‬

Soft Computing 8702661

Dr. Labib Arafeh,

Associate Professor
Larafeh@staff.alquds.edu

Ch1 SC Fall 2016 1

 Course Outlines
• Course Specification;

Ch1 SC Fall 2016 2

• Intelligence: Ability to learn, understand & think (Oxford);
• Artificial Intelligence (AI): Science and engineering of
making non-human intelligence (computational part of the
ability to achieve goals in the world) with machines. Also,
academic field of study which studies how to produce
computers and S/W able of intelligent behavior;
• AI Essential problems include features: Reasoning,
Learning, Knowledge Planning, Communication, Perception
& Ability to move/manipulate objects.
• AI techniques Include: Evolutionary Computation, EC &
Neural Networks, NNs.
• AI includes:
• Games Playing (chess);
• Expert Systems: Make decisions in real-life situations
(help doctors diagnose diseases based on symptoms);
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 3
 Introduction: Computing
• Counting, Calculating;
• Discipline: The systematic study of algorithmic processes
that describes and transforms information: Their Theory,
Analysis, Design, Efficiency, Implementation and Application.
• Types of computing: Hard computing (Conventional
Computing) and Soft Computing:
Hard Computing SoftComputing
Tolerant to imprecision, uncertainty,
Precisely stated analytical model
partial truth, approximation
Based on binary logic, crisp systems, Fuzzy logic, neural nets, probabilistic
numerical analysis, crisp SW Reasoning
Two Values Logic Multi Valued Logic
Exact Input Data Ambiguous and Noisy Data
Strictly Sequential Parallel Computations
Precise Answers Approximate Answers
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 4
• Soft Computing (SC): An innovative Approach to
Constructing Computationally Intelligent Systems;
– Combine: knowledge, techniques, & methodologies from
various resources;
– Are supposed to:
• Acquire humanlike expertise within a specific domain
• Adapt themselves, learn to do better in changing
environments and Explain how they make decisions /
take actions;
– In reality, it is often
advantageous to
use complementary
Hybrid Intelligent
Systems.
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 5
• Intelligence: Ability to learn, understand and think. (Oxford
dictionary)
• Artificial Intelligence (AI): When intelligence is induced in
machines.
• That is, AI: Science & engineering of making non-human
intelligence (computational part of the ability to achieve
goals in the world) with machines. Essential problems of AI
include features: Reasoning, Knowledge, Planning, Learning,
Communication, Perception & ability to move/manipulate
objects.
• AI techniques: Include Evolutionary Computation (EC) &
Neural Networks (NNs).
• AI includes:
• Games Playing (chess);
• Expert Systems: Make decisions in real-life situations
(help doctors diagnose diseases based on symptoms);
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 6
• Example of an Expert System (Knowledge-Based System):
the of the most successful
An Expert System: One of

Conventional AI product.

• Examples: Speech Recognition, Smell, Face, Object,

Perception, Inferencing, Learning New Skills, Financial
Decision Making, Abstract Thinking, Diagnosis and
Troubleshooting of Devices & Systems of All Kinds, Planning
& Scheduling, Configuration of Manufactured Objects from
Subassemblies, Knowledge Publishing, Forecasting, Design
and Manufacturing.
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 7
 AI and SoftComputing

Fuzzy Set Theory

NN Knowledge
Learning and Representation
adaptation through
RULEs (Fuzzy if-then)

Genetic Algorithms
Systematic
Random Search

Ch1 SC Fall 2016 8

• Computational Intelligence (C I ) : A new field that
combines NN, Evolutionary Comp (EC) Fuzzy Comp (FL)
Quantum Comp (QC) & DNA Comp (DNAC).
http://www.cs.vu.nl/ci/papers/Comp-Intell-Craenen-Eiben.pdf
• Natural Language: Understand natural human languages;
• Robotics: See, hear & react to other sensory stimuli.
• Neural Networks: Simulate intelligence by attempting to
reproduce the types of physical connections that occur in
animal brains; that is, it uses the human brain as a model
for solving problems; (Learning):
– Imitation of the Natural Intelligence of the Brain;
– Parallel Processing with Incomplete Information;
– Nerve Cells execute ~ 106 times slower than electronic
circuit gates, BUT human brains process Visual & Auditory
Information much faster than modern computers;
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 – Brain is modeled as a continuous-time non linear
dynamic system in connectionist architecture;
– Connectionism replaces symbolically structured version
with distributed representations in the form of weights
between a massive set of interconnected neurons.

NN character Recognizer
and a Knowledge base
cooperate in responding
to three handwritten
characters that form a
word: dog 

Ch1 SC Fall 2016 10

 AI and SoftComputing

cat
Animal? cat
cut
Neural Character
Recognition

knowledge

Ch1 SC Fall 2016 11

• Evolutionary Computation (EC) / Genetic Algorithms
(GA): Search methods that take their motivation from
(Darwinist methods) natural selection & survival of the
fittest in the biological world to generate and evaluate a
population of possible solutions to a problem; (Search).
– Simulation of Complex Biological Evolutionary processes;
– Simulation of Complex Biological Evolutionary processes;
– GA is one computing technique that uses an evolution
based on natural selection;
– Immune Modeling and Artificial Life are similar
disciplines based on chemical and physical laws;
– GA & SA offer the capacity for population-based
systematic random searches;
– SA & Random search explore the search space;
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 12
• Fuzzy Computation (FC)/Fuzzy Systems (FS)/Fuzzy Logic
(FL) /Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS): Use Multi-value
notions to solve problems instead of the using Boolean
logic; (Reasoning).
– Human Brains interpret imprecise & incomplete sensory
information provided by the perceptive organs;
– Fuzzy set Theory provides a systemic calculus to deal
with such information linguistically;
– Performs numerical computation using linguistic labels
stimulated by membership functions;
– Lacks the adaptability to deal with changing external
environment;
– Incorporates NN learning concepts in Fuzzy Inference
Systems: NF Approach.
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 13
• DNA Computing (DNAC): Coding actual DNA sequences
on a prepared medium & using specially encoded
enzymes to remove the infeasible one. DNAC uses the
inherent parallelism of nature in the most direct way to
solve problems. DNA molecules collide in water & bind
together, producing and releasing offspring molecules.
These act as the signals and they travel among the DNA
gates connecting the circuit.

• Quantum Computing (QC): Using the quantum mechanics

(Provides a mathematical description of much of the dual
particle-like and wave-like behavior and interactions of
energy and matter) of quantization, interference &
entanglement. QC is a basically new mode of information
processing.
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 14
 History of SC constitutes & conventional AI Approaches
Other
Conventional AI NNs FISs
Methodologies
1943 Pitts Neuron
1940s 1947 Cybernetics
Model
1950s 1956 AI 1957 Perceptron
1960s 1960 LISP Lang. Adaline Madaline 1965 FL
Mid-1970s Knowledge
1974 PP Algorithm 1975 1974 Fuzzy 1970s Genetic
1970s Engineering (Expert
Cognition Neocognition Controller Algorithm
Systems)
1980 Self-organizing Mid-1980s
map 1982 Hopfield 1985 Fuzzy Artificial Life
1980s
1983 Boltzmann 1986 Modeling Immune
PP Algorithm boom Modeling
NF Modeling
1990 Genetic
1990s 1991 ANFIS
Programming
1994 CANFIS
21st CI: DNAC, QC,
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 15
The Soft Computing: Development History
SC = EC + NN + FL
Zadeh Rechenberg McCulloch Zadeh
1981 1960 1943 1965

EC = GP + ES + EP + GA
Evolutionary Genetic Evolution Evolutionary Genetic
Computing Programming Strategies Programming Algorithms
Rechenberg Koza Rechenberg Fogel Holland
1960 1992 1965 1962 1970

Ch1 SC Fall 2016 16

• Hype Cycle: Graphical tool developed & used by IT research
and advisory firm Gartner to represent
Maturity, Adoption & Social Application
of Specific Technologies http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle

• Each Hype Cycle may be formed in five

key phases of a technology’s life cycle:
No Phase Description
A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-
Technology
1 concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no
Trigger usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.
Peak of Inflated Early publicity produces several success stories: Often accompanied by
2
Expectations scores of failures. Some companies take action; many do not.
Interest wanes as experiments/implementations fail to deliver. Producers of
Trough of
3 the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving
Disillusionment
providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.
More cases of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to shape up & become
Slope of
4 more understood. 2nd & 3rd generation products appear from technology providers.
Enlightenment More enterprises fund pilots; traditional companies remain cautious.
Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider
Plateau of
5 viability are more clearly defined. The technology’s broad market
Productivity
applicability and relevance are clearly paying off.
Ch1 17 SC Fall 2016
• Technology Trigger: A new Invention/Innovation that gets the
attention of the media, analysts, conference organizers etc,
that drives the idea to a Peak of Inflated Expectations. At this

point, disillusionsetsin (Trough of Disillusionment.) Successful

innovations pass through the trough & start to climb the slope
ofCh1
Enlightenment before reaching
18 the Plateau of Productivity.
SC Fall 2016
 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2014

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2819918
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 19
 2014 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle
http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2819918
• The 2013 dominant technology: The evolving relationship
between humans and machines (Machines and Computers
Replace Humans). The three main trends:
• Augmenting Humans with Technology (physical, emotional
and cognitive areas): An employee with a Wearable
Computing Device (bioacoustic sensing, quantified self, 3D
bioprinting, augmented reality, brain-computer interface,
human augmentation, neurobusiness, speech-to-speech
translation, wearable user interfaces, and gesture control);
• Machines Replacing Humans: A cognitive virtual assistant
acting as an automated customer representative
(volumetric and holographic displays, autonomous
vehicles, mobile robots and virtual assistants); and
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 20
 • Humans and Machines working alongside each other: A
mobile robot working with a warehouse employee to move
many boxes (autonomous vehicles, mobile robots, natural
language question and answering, and virtual assistants).
• The 2014 central theme: Six Progressive Business Era Models
that enterprises can identify with today & to which they can
aspire in the future (Six Business Era Models (STAGES) in the
Digital Business Development Path): Analog, Web, e-
Business, Digital Marketing, Digital Business, Autonomous.
•Digital Marketing: SW-Defined Anything; Volumetric and
Holographic Displays; Neurobusiness; Data Science; Big Data;
Prescriptive Analytics; Complex Event Processing; In-Memory
DBMS; Content Analytics; Gamification; Hybrid Cloud
Computing; Augmented Reality; Cloud Computing; Near-field
communication (NFC); Virtual Reality; Gesture Control;
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 21
 In-Memory Analytics; Activity Streams; Speech Recognition.

• Digital Business: Bioacoustic Sensing; Digital Security; Smart

Workspace; Connected Home; 3D Bioprinting Systems;
Affective Computing; Speech-to-Speech Translation; Internet
of Things; Cryptocurrencies; Wearable User Interfaces;
Consumer 3D Printing; Machine-to-Machine Communication
Services; Mobile Health Monitoring; Enterprise 3D Printing;
3D Scanners; Consumer Telematics.

• Autonomous: Virtual Personal Assistants; Brain-Computer

Interface; Human Augmentation; Quantum Computing;
Smart Robots; Biochips; Smart Advisors; Autonomous
Vehicles; Natural-Language Question Answering.

Ch1 SC Fall 2016 22

 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2015

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3114217
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 23
 2015 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle
http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3114217
• Major changes in the 2015 Hype Cycle for Emerging
Technologies include:
• Autonomous Vehicles: Have shifted from pre-peak to peak;
• Considering the Six Progressive Business Era Models that
enterprises can identify with today and to which they can
aspire in the future (The more Emerging Technologies):
1. Digital Marketing: Realizes the emergence of the Node of
Forces (Mobile, Social, Cloud & Information). Enterprises
focus on new & more sophisticated ways to reach
consumers, who are willing to participate in marketing
efforts to gain greater social connection, or product and
service value. Technologies to consider: Gesture Control,
Hybrid Cloud Computing, IoT, Machine Learning, People-
Literate Technology, Speech-to-Speech Translation.
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 24
 2015 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle… Cont.
http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3114217
2. Digital Business: Focuses on the convergence of people,
business and things. IoT and the concept of blurring the
physical & virtual worlds are strong concepts in this stage.
Enterprises seeking to become a digital business must
look to other technologies: 3D Bioprinting for Life Science
R&D, 3D Bioprinting Systems for Organ Transplant, Human
Augmentation, Affective Computing, Bioacoustics Sensing,
Biochips, Brain-Computer Interface, Citizen Data Science,
Connected Home, AR, Digital Dexterity, Digital Security,
Enterprise 3D Printing, Smart Robots, Smart Advisors,
Gesture Control, IoT, IoT Platform, Micro Data Centers,
Cryptocurrencies, Cryptocurrency Exchange, VR, Machine
Learning, People-Literate Technology, Natural-Language
Question Answering, Neurobusiness, SW-Defined Security,
Quantum Computing, Speech-to-Speech Translation,
Volumetric & Holographic Displays & Wearables.
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 25
 2015 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle… Cont.
http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3114217
3. Autonomous: Represents the final post-nexus stage. This
stage is defined by an enterprise's ability to influence
technologies that provide humanlike / human-replacing
capabilities like: Using autonomous vehicles to move
people / products and cognitive systems to recommend a
potential structure for an answer to an email; write texts
or answer customer questions. Enterprises seeking to
reach this stage to gain competitiveness should consider
these technologies: Autonomous Vehicles, Bioacoustic
Sensing, Biochips, Brain-Computer Interface, Smart
Advisors, Smart Dust, Smart Robots, Digital Dexterity
(Agility), Human Augmentation, Machine Learning,
Neurobusiness, People-Literate Technology, Quantum
Computing, Virtual Personal Assistants, VR, and
Volumetric and Holographic
Ch1
Displays.
SC Fall 2016 26
 Top Strategic Technology Trends for 2015 (Gartner)
https://www.gartner.com/doc/2966917?refval=&pcp=mpe#-371936410
• Computing Everywhere: Changes
how People experience the World
• The Internet of Things: Brings the
Power of Device Ecosystems to an
Enterprise
• 3D Printing: Approaches a Critical
Inflection Point
• Advanced, Pervasive and Invisible
Analytics: Turn Every App. into an
Analytical App. Delivering Actionable
Insights to Consumers
• Context-Rich Systems: Provide Agility
and Proactive Responsiveness
• Smart Machines: Extends
Humankind's Ability to Address
Complex Situations
• Cloud/Client Computing: Emerges to
Unify Cloud and Mobile Strategies
• S/W-Defined Architecture for
Infrastructure and Apps is Required
for Dynamic, Agile, Flexible Systems
to Support Digital Business
• Web-Scale IT Is Required to Keep
Pace With Digital Innovation and
Competitive Threats
• Digital Business: Demands Risk-
Based Security and Self-Protection SC Fall 2016 27
 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2016

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3412017
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 28
 2016 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle
http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3412017
• Reveals 3 distinct primary technology (highest priority for
organization facing rapidly accelerating digital business
innovation) trends that greatly create new experiences with
unbeatable intelligence and offer platforms that allow
organizations to connect with new business ecosystems:
1. Transparently immersive experiences: Technology will
continue to become more human-centric where it will
introduce transparency between people, businesses and
things. Critical technologies to be considered include: 4D
Printing, Brain-Computer Interface, Human Augmentation,
Volumetric Displays, Affective Computing, Connected
Home, Nanotube Electronics, Augmented Reality, Virtual
Reality and Gesture Control Devices.
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 29
 2016 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle… Cont.
http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3412017
2. The Perceptual Smart Machine Age: Smart Machine
Technologies will be the most disruptive class of
technologies over the next decade due to: Radical
computational power, huge amounts of data and unique
advances in Neural Networks that will allow smart machine
technologies’ organizations to link data so as to adapt to
new situations and solve problems that no one has faced
earlier. Enterprises seeking power in this theme should
consider Technologies like: Smart Dust, Machine Learning,
Virtual Personal Assistants, Cognitive Expert Advisors,
Smart Data Discovery, Smart Workspace, Conversational
User Interfaces, Smart Robots, Commercial Unmanned
Aerial Vehicle (UAVs/Drones), Autonomous Vehicles,
Natural-Language Question Answering, Personal Analytics,
Enterprise Taxonomy & Ontology Management, Data
Broker PaaS (dbrPaaS), and Context Brokering.
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 30
 2016 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle… Cont.
http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3412017
3. The Platform Revolution: Emerging technologies are
reforming the concepts of how platforms are defined/used:
• Moving from technical infrastructure to ecosystem-enabling
platforms (a platform strategy allowing rapid adoption from
various partners/solution providers) lays the basics for fully
new business models that form humans-technology bridge
• Within these dynamic ecosystems, organizations must
proactively redefine their strategy to create platform-based
business models, & exploit internal / external algorithms
in order to generate value.
• Key Platform-enabling Technologies: Neuromorphic (Using
VLSI systems having electronic analog circuits to mimic
neuro-biological architectures present in nervous system)
HW, Quantum Computing, Blockchain (Distributed DB), IoT
Platform, SW-Defined Security
Ch1
& SW-Defined Anything (SDx)
SC Fall 2016 31
 Top Strategic Technology Trends for 2016 (Gartner)
http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/top-ten-technology-trends-signal-the-digital-mesh/
The Digital Mesh
1. The Device Mesh: All devices (cameras,
cars, appliances, etc.) are connected in an
expanding set of endpoints people use to
access apps & information, or interact with
people, communities, governments and
businesses. It is expected for connection
models to expand and provide greater
cooperative interaction among devices to
emerge. Major development in Wearables,
AR and VR will be seen
2. Ambient User Experience: Digital
interactionscan become synchronized into a
continuous and ambient digital experience
that preserves our knowledge across
traditional limits of devices, time & space.
Users can interact with an app. in a dynamic
multistep sequence that may last for a long
period. The experience blends physical,
virtual, e-environments, & uses real-time
contextual information as the ambient
environment changes or as the user moves
from one place to another. Organizations
will need to consider their customers’
behavior journeys to shift the focus on
design from apps to a mesh of products &
services involved in the user experience.
SC Fall 2016 32
 Top Strategic Technology Trends for 2016 (Gartner)
http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/top-ten-technology-trends-signal-the-digital-mesh/
3. 3D-Printing Materials: Continuous
advances in 3D printing with a wide range
of materials like: advanced nickel alloys,
carbon fiber, glass, conductive ink,
electronics, pharmaceuticals & biological
materials for practical apps in aerospace,
automotive, medical, energy, & military.
With recent advances, mixing traditional
3D printing with multiple materials is
possible for field operations or repairs
when a specific tool is required and
printed on demand.
Biological 3D printing: Printing of skin &
organs, is progressing towards reality.
Smart Machines
4. Information of Everything: Everything
surrounding us in the digital mesh is
producing, using and communicating with
virtually unmeasurable amounts of
information. Societies must learn how to
identify what information provides
strategic value, how to access data from
different sources, and explore how
algorithms force Information of
Everything to fuel new business designs.
 Top Strategic Technology Trends for 2016 (Gartner)
http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/top-ten-technology-trends-signal-the-digital-mesh/
5.Advanced Machine Learning: Is what
makes smart machines appear intelligent
by enabling them to both understand
concepts in the environment and learn.
Through machine learning, a smart
machine can change its future behavior.
For example, by analyzing vast databases
of medical case histories, learning
machines can reveal previously unknown
insights in treatment effectiveness.
Organizations must assess how they can
apply these technologies to gain
competitive advantage
6.Autonomous Agents & Things: Advanced
machine learning gives rise to a range of
Smart Machine applications: Autonomous
Vehicles, Robots, VPAs (Virtual Personal
Assistants) & Smart Advisors, that act in an
autonomous / semiautonomous manner.
This supports the ambient user experience
in which an Autonomous Agent becomes
the main user interface. Instead of
interacting with GUIs (menus, forms and
buttons) on a smartphone, the user
speaks to an app., which is really an
intelligent agent.
 Top Strategic Technology Trends for 2016 (Gartner)
http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/top-ten-technology-trends-signal-the-digital-mesh/
The New IT Reality
7. Adaptive Security Architecture: The
complexities of digital business, the
algorithmic economy, and an emerging
hacker industry, significantly increase the
threat for an organization. IT leaders must
focus on: Detecting and Responding to
threats, more traditional blocking and
other measures to prevent attacks.
8. Advanced System Architecture: Digital
Mesh and smart machines require intense
computing architecture demands to make
them viable for organizations. These added
boost can be obtained from ultra-efficient
neuromorphic architectures. GPUs and
Field-Programmable Gate-Arrays (FPGAs)-
based Systems will function more like
human brains that are mainly suited to be
applied to deep learning and other Pattern
-Matching Algorithms that smart machines
use. FPGA-based architecture will allow
distribution with less power into the tiniest
IoT endpoints like: wristwatches, homes,
cars, and even human beings.
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 35
 Top Strategic Technology Trends for 2016 (Gartner)
http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/top-ten-technology-trends-signal-the-digital-mesh/
The New IT Reality
9.Mesh App and Service Architecture:
Mesh app and service architecture are
what enables delivery of apps and
services to the flexible and dynamic
environment of the digital mesh. This
design serves users’ requirements as
they vary over time. It brings together
the many information sources, devices,
apps, services and microservices into a
flexible architecture in which apps
extend across multiple endpoint
devices and can coordinate with one
another to produce a continuous
digital experience.
10. Internet of Things Architecture and
Platforms: IoT platforms exist behind
the mesh app & service architecture.
The technologies and standards in the
IoT platform form a base set of
capabilities for controlling, managing
communicating & securing endpoints
in the IoT.
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 36
• The Internet of Things (IoT): The network of physical
objects (things) embedded with electronics, connectivity,
sensors and S/W to enable objects to collect & exchange
data. Data provided by the IoT will lead to a new era of
developing Innovative business models to:
Manage,
Monetize,
Operate
and
Extend.

Ch1 SC Fall 2016 37

• 3D Printing: Making 3-D Object: 3D printing can potentially
have very high value for enterprises. Gartner predicted:
Worldwide shipments of 3D printers will grow 98% in 2015.
• Context-Rich Systems: Personal assistants like Siri (virtual
personal assistant: uses voice to send SMS, make calls, etc.)
& other apps. will act as mediators to bridge the gap
between contextual
information & the
user experience
platform. Challenge:
Creating a dynamic
user-experience based
on an expanding set of
contexts to pull data
from.
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 38
• Smart Machines: Self-driving cars up to virtual customer
assistants & advanced robots with learning abilities, smart
machines will continue to evolve and be used in the
commercial space.
• Cloud/Client Computing: The new IT emerges with cloud
as its coordination point. Over the next few years,
managing content and apps states across several disparate
devices will be key. IT must focus on fusing together its
cloud and mobile strategies with apps designed specifically
for the cloud.
• Agile programming of Apps & infrastructure that support
these technologies will be essential in creating a dynamic
model that can support the evolution of digitalized
businesses.

Ch1 SC Fall 2016 39

• Software-Defined Apps & Infrastructure: S/W-Defined
technologies stepping in to provide organizations with the
flexibility they need to succeed in the digitalized world.

Ch1 SC Fall 2016 40

• Web-Scale IT: A global-class computing that delivers the
capabilities of big cloud service providers within the
business IT setting. Emerging technologies involve: new
ways of Thinking, Coding and Learning web Architecture.
E.g.: DevOps (Development & Operations): A S/W
development approach that stresses integration,
communication,
collaboration,
Automation and
measurement of
cooperation between
S/W developers and
other IT professionals.
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 41
• Risk-Based Security and Self-Protection: New IT emerges
with cloud as its coordination point  The hot issue of
Security as enterprises deal with hybrid cloud environments
and increasing amounts of data from the IoT. “All roads to
the digital future lead through security”. Organizations
must open the black box of apps and look towards app.
self-protection as a key step in app. security.
• Smart Dust: A system of many tiny microelectromechanical
systems (MEMS) like: Sensors, Robots, etc., that can detect:
Light, Temperature, Vibration, Magnetism, or Chemicals 
New Camera is the Size of a Grain of Salt ( http://singularityhub.com/2016/06/28/smart-

)
dust-is-coming-new-camera-is-the-size-of-a-grain-of-salt/

• Smart Work Place: A space that could provide something

that was uniquely suited to a hyperproductive worker at
any time, supported with available affordable & accessible
services: broadband connectivity, conference, cafe, child
care, or HD Video Conferencing services. Features include:
Connected, Effective, Technology, and Dynamic.
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 42
• 4-D Printing (http://www.iflscience.com/technology/explainer-what-4d-printing/):
– Approach: Print 3D structures using materials with
different properties: one that remained rigid and another
that expanded up to 200% of its original volume. The
expanding materials were placed strategically on the
main structure to produce joints that stretched and
folded like a bendy straw when activated by water,
forming a broad range of shapes.
– A wide range of applications such as:
• Home Appliances and Products that can adapt to heat
or moisture to improve comfort or add functionality;
• Childcare Products that can react to humidity or
temperature, for example, or clothes and footwear that
optimize their form and function by reacting to changes
in the environment.
• http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/32498842
• http://www.ted.com/talks/skylar_tibbits_the_emergence_of_4d_printing?language=en
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 43
• Neuro-Fuzzy Computing: The heart of designing Intelligent
Systems;
– Composed of: Adaptivity & Knowledge.
– NN Recognizes patterns, and Adapts themselves to cope
with changing environments;
– FIS Incorporates Human Knowledge and Performs
Inferencing & Decision making.
• SC is an emerging approach to computing which parallels
(similar) the remarkable ability of the human mind to
reason and learn in an environment of uncertainty and
imprecision. (Lotfi Zadeh)
• SC consists of: NNs, Fuzzy Set Theory (FL), Approximate
Reasoning, Derivative-Free Optimization Methods:
Genetic Algorithms, Simulated Annealing, Random
search, Downhill Simplex.
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 44
 Neuro-Fuzzy & Soft Computing
Model Space
Approximate Reasoning

Neural networks

Fuzzy inference systems

Soft
Approach Space Computing
Derivative-free optimization:
Genetic Algorithms, Simulated
Annealing, Random search,
Downhill Simplex)
Derivative-based optimization:
Steepest Descent,
Newton's Methods
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 45
 Methodology Strength
NN Learning & Adaptation
Knowledge Representation via fuzzy
Fuzzy Set Theory
if-then rules
GA & SA Systemic Random Search
Conventional AI Symbolic Manipulation
• SC does not perform much symbolic manipulation,
• That is, SC complements conventional AI.
• RECAPING NF & SC Characteristics: With NF Modeling
as a backbone, SC can be characterized as: Human
Expertise (fuzzy if-then rules); Biologically inspired
computing models (NN); New optimization Techniques
(GA, SA, etc.); Numerical Computation.
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 46
 SC Applications: CONTROL

• Heavy industry: Matsushita,

Siemens, Stora-Enso
• Home appliances: Canon,
Sony, Gold star, Siemens;
• Automobiles: Mitsubishi,
Nissan, Volkswagen, BMW,
Daimler-Chrysler.
• Spacecrafts: NASA.

Ch1 SC Fall 2016 47

 SC Applications: ROBOTICS
The HelpMate Robotic Courier has
been acquired by Pyxis Corporation.

Entertainment
robot AIBO

Fukuda’s lab

Ch1 SC Fall 2016 48

SC applications in Business: Supplier evaluation for sample
testing, Customer targeting, Creditworthiness assessment,
Sequencing and Scheduling, Optimizing R&D Knowledge-
based projection, Fuzzy data analysis Hospital stay
prediction, TV commercial slot evaluation, Address matching,
and Sales projection for mail order house Fuzzy cluster
analysis, Multi-criteria optimization etc. (FuzzyTech)
SC applications in Finance: Fuzzy scoring for mortgage
applicants, Fuzzy-enhanced score card for lease risk
assessment, Risk profile analysis, Insurance fraud detection,
Cash supply optimization, Foreign exchange trading, Trading
surveillance, Investor classification etc. (FuzzyTech).
Other SC applications: Statistics; Social sciences and Conflict
Resolutions; Behavioral sciences; Biology; Medicine;
Forecasting; Material Engineering; Automatic Grading
System; elearning Quality Modeling; etc.
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 49
 elearning Quality Modeling:

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 elearning Quality
Modeling:

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NeuroFuzzy Approach to Load Forecasting in electric Power Systems

Time
TISO MODEL Forecasted Load
Weight

A TISO Short-Term Load Forecaster

Inputs Layer 1 Layer 2 Layer 3 Layer 4 Output

Inputs

Π
Inputs
Time
Π

Σ / Load

Inputs
Weight Π

Inputs

A proposed short-term TISO load forecasters.

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 SoftComputing Auto Essay Grading

Ch1 SC Fall 2016 53

 SoftComputing Auto Essay Grading

TISO Models Predictions for 3-Week Period

Ch1 SC Fall 2016 54
 Austempered Ductile Iron Fuzzy-
Based Model

Ch1 SC Fall 2016 55

Fuzzy Logic Approach for Computing the Probability
of Target Detection in Cluttered Scenes

The Probability of Detection, PD, value can be determined

with a fuzzy logic approach using three input parameters;
the Der metric, DM, the probability of Edge, PE, and the
Schmieder Value, SV.
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 Fuzzy Logic Approach to Conflict Resolution:
Cease Fire!

Ch1 SC Fall 2016 57

 Soft Computing-based Key

Ch1
Entrepreneurial Competencies
Model (SKECM)
gg

SC Fall 2016
58
 A Three-Stage SKECM Model!

Ch1
SC Fall 2016
59
 SKECM Overall Model

Ch1 SC Fall 2016 60

 A Three-Stage Simulated

Ch1
SKECM Model!

SC Fall 2016
61
 SW Costing (EFFORT) spent for project in man.month!
1. USC COCOMO / COCOMO II Constructive Cost Model
2. COSMOS Software Cost Modeling System
3. PRICE-System: Founders of Commercial Parametric models that
estimates the scope, cost, effort and schedule for SW projects
4. Costar
5. SLIM Putnam’s Software Life-cycle Model
6. Analysis Effort method
7. Evidence-based Scheduling: Refinement of typical agile
estimating techniques using minimal measurement and total time
accounting.
8. Function Point Analysis / Weighted Micro Function
Points (WMFP)
9. PROBE Proxy-based estimating (from the Personal SW
Process)
10.PERT Program Evaluation and Review Technique
11.SEER-SEM Parametric Estimation of Effort, Schedule, Cost,
Risk. Minimum time and staffing concepts based on Brooks's law
12.The Planning Game (from Extreme Programming)
13.Wideband Delphi
14.The Use Case Points method (UCP)
15.CETIN
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 62
 Fuzzy Logic Approach to SW Costing (EFFORT) spent for
project in man.month!
1.Exponential Cost Drivers (5) PREC: Precedentedness, FLEX:
Development Flexibility, RESL: Arch/Risk Resolution, TEAM: Team
Cohesion, PMAT: Process Maturity;
2.Product Factors (5) RELY: Required Software Reliability,
DATA: Database Size, CPLX: Product Complexity, RUSE: Required
Reusability, DOCU: Documentation match to life-cycle needs;
3.Platform Factors (3) TIME: Execution Time Constraint,
STOR: Main Storage Constraint, PVOL: Platform Volatility;
4.Personnel Factors (6) ACAP: Analyst Capability, PCAP:
Programmer Capability, PCON: Personnel Continuity, AEXP:
Applications Experience, PEXP: Platform Experience, LTEX:
Language and Tool Experience.
5.Project Factors (3) TOOL: Use of Soft Tools, SITE: Multisite
Development , SCED: Development Schedule
6.Input LOC: Lines of Code
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 63
 No. Effort Multiplier Range
1 Required software reliability (RELY) 0.82-1.26
2 Database size (DATA) 0.90-1.28
3 Product complexity (CPLX) 0.73-1.74
4 Developed for reusability (RUSE) 0.95-1.24
Documentation match to life cycle needs (DOCU) 0.81-1.23
Table: The range of EMs

5
6 Execution time constraint (TIME) 1 1.00-1.63
7 Main storage constraint (STOR) 1.00-1.46
8 Platform volatility (PVOL) 0.87-1.30
9 Analyst capability (ACAP) 1.42-0.71
10 Programmer capability (PCAP) 1.34-0.76
11 Personnel continuity (PCON) 1.29-0.81
12 Applications experience (APEX) 1.22-0.81
13 Platform experience (PLEX) 1.19-0.85
14 Language and tool experience (LTEX) 1.20-0.84
15 Use of software tools (TOOL) 1.17-0.78
16 Multi site development (SITE) 1.22-0.80
17 Required development schedule (SCED) 1.43-1.00
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 64
 Table: The range of SFs
No. Scale Factor Range
1 Precedentedness (PREC) 0.00-6.20
2 Development Flexibility (FLEX) 0.00-5.07
3 Architecture/Risk Resolution (RESL) 0.00-7.07
4 Team Cohesion (TEAM) 0.00-5.48
5 Process Maturity (PMAT) 0.00-7.80
'Very Low', Low, Nominal, High, 'Very High‘, 'Extra High'
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COCOMO
DATA:
http://code.google.com/p/promisedata/source/browse/trunk/effort
/coc81-dem/coc81-dem.arff?spec=svn511&r=511

Ch1 SC Fall 2016 65

 Table: Experts’ Rules
(RELY) Required software reliability
(DATA) Database size
Decrease (CPLX) Product complexity
these to (RUSE) Developed for reusability

decrease (DOCU) Documentation match to life cycle needs

(TIME) Execution time constraint
effort (PVOL) Platform volatility
(STOR) Main storage constraint
(ACAP) Analyst capability
(PCAP) Programmer capability
Increase (PCON) Personnel continuity
(APEX) Applications experience
these to
(PLEX) Platform experience
decrease (LTEX) Language and tool experience
(TOOL) Use of software tools
effort
(SITE) Multi site development
(SCED) Required development schedule
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 66
More SC applications: Most frequently, soft computing
technology methods are employed on complex and
computationally intensive problems that have traditionally
proved intractable for conventional analysis methods.
• The key areas of SC include: Neural networks, Fuzzy
systems, Genetic algorithms, Ant Colony optimization,
(ACO) Evolutionary methods, Simulated annealing,
Harmony search, Cellular Automata, Swarm Intelligence,
Bayesian networks, Chaos theory, Data mining, Expert
systems, Support Vector Machines, Hybrid optimization
algorithms, Predator-prey, Response Surfaces, Polynomial
chaos, Artificial immune systems and immune computing,
Robust design, Inverse methodologies, Self-Organizing
Maps (SOM), Multi Agent Systems, Evolutionary
Polynomial Regression (EPR).
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 67
• Application Areas: SC Technology Progresses, Simulation
Applications, New Trends in Numerical Methods and Solution
Strategies, Parallel and Grid Computing Technologies, Structural
Mechanics and Design, Mesh And Grid Generation, Water Eng.
and Hydraulics, Structural Computational Mechanics, Inverse
Structural Eng., Multi-scale Simulation and Failure Mechanics,
Stochastic Mechanics, Robustness and Reliability, Structural &
Multidisciplinary Optimization, Life-cycle Cost Analysis and
Performance-based Design, Structural Dynamics And Control,
Coupled and Interaction Problems, Wave Propagation and Soil
Dynamics, Structural Earthquake and Geotechnical Eng.,
Computational Geosciences,Geostatistics and Geoenvironmental
Eng., Damage Analysis and Vulnerability Assessment, Health
Monitoring / Maintenance Systems, Repair Of Structures /
Infrastructures, Smart Structures and Materials, Biomechanical
Mechanisms/Structures, Risk Analysis and Decision Making,
Project Management and Operations Research Eng.
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 68
 Paper-like Article I
Write a paper-like article using the IEEE formats (2-
Column, 14 Calibri fonts introducing and reviewing
your course project topic of interest, discussing the
various techniques used so far, and introducing how
would you implement any Soft Computing (Fuzzy
Logic, neural networks, NeuroFuzzy) technique.
Submission (Hard & Soft Copies) and Presentation:
LECTURE TIME ON Sat. 1st Oct. 2016.
Ch1 SC Fall 2016 69