Viral Growth for Marketing

http://www.forentrepreneurs.com/ by David Skok, General Partner at Matrix Partners

Inputs Value
Customers at start Custs(0) 10
Customers at time t Custs(t) This is the variable that we want to compute
Number of invites i 10 Sent out by each "infected" customer
Conversion rate Conv% 20% i.e. % of invited customers that actually sign up

Computed values Formula

Viral coefficient K 2.0* Conv% i.e. the number of actual customers that sign up as a result

Formula for a single cycle of invitations - where c represents cycles

New custs added in this cycle = New custs added in the last cycle * viral-coef
NewCusts(c) = NewCusts(c-1) * K

Customers at any particular cycle = Customers at end of the prior cycle + New custs added in this cycle
Custs(c) = Custs(c-1) + NewCusts(c)

Example:
Viral Coefficient K 2.0
Cycles 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
New custs added this cycle 20 40 80 160 320 640 1,280 2,560
Total Customers: C(c) 10 30 70 150 310 630 1,270 2,550 5,110
mers that sign up as a result of the invites being sent out = number of invites * conversion %

9 10 11 12
5,120 10,240 20,480 40,960
10,230 20,470 40,950 81,910
Viral Growth for Marketing

Inputs Value
Time t
Viral Cycle number c
Customers at start Custs(0) 10
Customers at time t Custs(t) This is the variable that we want to compute
Number of invites i 10 Sent out by each "infected" customer
Conversion rate Conv% 20% i.e. % of invited customers that actually sign up
Viral Cycle time ct i.e. the time that it takes after a customer has signed up, before they invite others

Computed values Formula

Viral coefficient K 2.00 i * Conv% i.e. the number of actual customers that sign up as a result

Formula for a single cycle of invitations - where c represents cycles

New custs added in this cycle = New custs added in the last cycle * viral-coef
NewCusts(c) = NewCusts(c-1) * K

Customers at any particular cycle = Customers at end of the prior cycle + New custs added in this cycle
Custs(c) = Custs(c-1) + NewCusts(c)

Example:
Viral Coefficient K 2.00 (from above)
Cycles 0 1 2 3 4
Spreadsheet method
New custs added in this cycle 20 40 80 160
Total Customers: C(c) 10 30 70 150 310

Formula calculated
New custs added this cycle 20 40 80 160
Total Customers: C(c) 10 30 70 150 310

Understanding the impact of "Time to Infect" - tti

If we look at any particular time period, the number of customers at the end of that time period will depend greatly on how m
For example, in a 100 day period, if the Time to Infect (tti) is 100 days, then there will only have been on cycle. However if tti is

Building a formula to calculate the number of customers at any point in time needs to take into consideration the number of c
The number of cycles that will have occurred at time t is equal to t/tti
 Custs(c) = Custs(0) * (K ^(c+1) - 1) / (K – 1)
NewCusts(c) = Custs(0) * K ^ c 𝐶𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑠(𝑐)=𝐶𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑠(0)∗(𝐾^((𝑐+1) )
−1)/(𝐾−1)
Custs(t) = Custs(0) * (K ^ (t/ct + 1) - 1) / (K-1)

t 30
ct 5
Customers at time t

Looking at the effect of different Viral Loop Times

Viral Coefficient K 2.00

Custs(t) 1,270 0 10 20 30
Viral Loop Time (lt) 1
2
5
10
20
50
nt to compute

t actually sign up
a customer has signed up, before they invite others

e number of actual customers that sign up as a result of the invites being sent out = number of invites * conversion %

New custs added in this cycle

5 6 7

320 640 1,280

630 1,270 2,550

320 640 1,280

630 1,270 2,550

end of that time period will depend greatly on how many cycles occur in that time period
en there will only have been on cycle. However if tti is only 2 days, then 50 cycles will have occurred

me needs to take into consideration the number of cycles that will have occurred at that point in time
𝐶𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑠(𝑡)=𝐶𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑠(0)∗(𝐾^((𝑡⁄𝑐𝑡+1) )
−1)/(𝐾−1)

𝐶𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑠(𝑐)=𝐶𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑠(0)∗(𝐾^((𝑐+1) )
−1)/(𝐾−1)

Time t
40 50 60
f invites * conversion %

8 9 10 11

2,560 5,120 10,240 20,480

5,110 10,230 20,470 40,950

2,560 5,120 10,240 20,480

5,110 10,230 20,470 40,950
Time t
70 80 90 100
 12

40,960
81,910

40,960
81,910
110 120