Professional Documents
Culture Documents
net/publication/277582593
CITATION READS
1 81
2 authors, including:
Robert Mudida
Strathmore University
41 PUBLICATIONS 98 CITATIONS
SEE PROFILE
Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects:
The Economic Impact of Malaria with an emphasis on eight malaria endemic counties in Kenya View project
All content following this page was uploaded by Robert Mudida on 29 August 2020.
A
t the turn of the century, a promi- as many of its economies are small in global
nent World Bank study raised a se- terms, we do believe “economic revolution”
rious question: Can Africa Claim the is the right way to describe how, in just a de-
21st Century? Given that the first 40 cade, the lists of the world’s 10 fastest growing
post-independence years of many African states economies have come to be consistently dom-
had seen little in the form of meaningful devel- inated by Africa. Macroeconomic indicators
opment, posing such a question was certainly aside, the ground-level reality reveals sizable
relevant. Since then, there has been intense de- business opportunities.
bate between those who see the glass half empty, Given the prospects, many companies
such as Paul Collier’s The Bottom Billion (2007), around the world are setting their sights on
and those who see it as half full, such as Vijay Africa as a new frontier for business. This
Mahajan’s Africa Rising (2008), Steven Rade- article highlights the main macroeconomic
let’s Emerging Africa (2010) and Charles Robert- trends and presents a road map for compa-
son’s The Fastest Billion: The Story Behind Africa’s nies planning to enter African markets. As
Economic Revolution (2012). our research is in its early stages, this article
Without overstating Africa’s potential, is based on personal experiences and local
Sub-Saharan Africa: Key Stats exhibit 1 21 percent in Latin America and the Carib-
bean). Pacts aimed at reducing trade barri-
ALL DATA AS OF 2013, UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED.
ers within and among Africa’s main regions
have had limited success, save for South Af-
Population: 936m rica (and its region of influence), Kenya and
Youth aged 10-24: 297m Nigeria where some relevant manufacturing
(projected 561m by 2050) and services trade between neighboring coun-
Urban population: 37% tries exists. Part of the difficulty stems from
GDP: $1.6tr the slow pace of implementing pacts agreed
GNI per capita: $1,657
on paper: shaking hands on a deal is one thing;
FDI inflows: $52.6bn
tackling the realities of intra-regional trade is
(+12.9%)
Land area: Intra-African trade
quite another.
20.4% of (2007-2011): 11% of total
Earth’s total merchandise exports A FAST-RISING MIDDLE CLASS. The number of mid-
Middle class spending dle class Africans has been put at 100 million to
Ease of doing $2-$20/day (2011): 313m (up more than 300 million, or 1 in 3 Africans, depend-
business (2014): 60% since 2001) ing on how one defines middle class. Some cat-
20 years since Living above poverty line: egorize it as those with discretionary purchasing
genocide, projected 1.23bn by 2025 power of $2-$4 a day, while others allow a broader
Rwanda now ranks Rwanda (up 475m since 2010) $2-$20 a day. Either way, their options to access
46th worldwide
consumer goods are limited, and those at the low-
SOURCES: World Bank, Population Reference Bureau, African Development Bank, er end of the scale risk falling back into poverty.
IMF, Silk Invest, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Still, the fact that those rates jumped 60 per-
cent in a decade is noteworthy. Countries such as
Nigeria and Kenya rank among the fastest grow-
economies. Both natural resources and services ing middle classes in the world. This represents
are expected to fuel much more growth. a market potential of $2 trillion, equivalent
There are concerns that the manufactur- to two-thirds of China’s current private con-
ing value added is too low, even in the most sumption. And though they may not be able
diversified economies (South Africa being to afford as many durable goods yet, the rapid
the exception). While this affords abundant rate at which they have already adopted mo-
scope for the industrial sector to develop, the bile technologies augurs well for ample con-
leap from agriculture to a fully diversified ser- sumer demand.
To meet this demand, there
vice economy, which is largely dependent on are growing numbers of local conglomerates
the wealth generated by natural resources, is taking their place alongside Western multina-
not an easy or stable transition to make. tionals such as Coca-Cola, Unilever, Bata and
Gallina Blanca, which established an African
EXPORTS GROWING BUT LIMITED INTRA-AFRICAN market presence long ago. Kenya’s Bidco,
TRADE. Although exports have quadrupled over a manufacturer and marketer of consumer
the past 10 years, they still only account for less goods founded and run by a family of Indian
than 3 percent of African GDP. China alone ac- descent, is fast making inroads in a robust
counts for roughly a quarter of Africa’s exports. sector. Indeed, Kenya has given rise to at least
Africa needs to find other trade partners and di- five major supermarket chains that compete
versify beyond natural resources to agricultural, fiercely across the East African region, includ-
manufacturing and particularly services exports. ing Nakumatt, Tuskys and Uchumi.
Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda have done well di-
versifying their outputs, while formerly war-torn A POWERFUL INFORMAL SECTOR. The cause and
Rwanda has done remarkably well transforming consequence of the emerging middle class is the
itself over the past decade. existence of a dynamic informal sector, which
Intra-African trade, at 11 percent of to- the McKinsey Global Institute estimates in sub-
tal merchandise exports, is low compared Saharan Africa could amount to 25-30 million
with intraregional patterns in other parts microenterprises and small and medium-sized
of the world (50 percent in developing Asia, businesses, on a par with that of Southeast Asia.
In some cases, the informal sector may involve Kenya the favored hub for technology, industrial
80-85 percent of the working population. production and services. Intra-African invest-
Even though these enterprises are dubbed ments, mainly by banks and IT services compa-
“informal” because they operate under the nies, are increasing, led by South African, Kenyan
radar of any tax system, some of them can and Nigerian companies. Private equity groups
be quite structured. We’re not just talking such as Carlyle, Helios and Actis are placing big
about individual street hawkers but maybe a bets on the continent.
six-person consulting or advertising firm or a
small distributor of consumer goods that may GREATER POLITICAL STABILITY BUT CONCERNS
employ a dozen people. PERSIST. The sociopolitical instability that used
Paul Kinuthia is an example of someone to characterize many African states has settled
who started making shampoo in the back- down a lot over the past 25 years as their democra-
streets of Kenya under the brand Nice & Love- cies have matured, leading to better governance
ly. Over time, he incorporated his business as and stronger, more inclusive institutional frame-
Interconsumer Products, a division of which works. This has bolstered investor confidence.
he sold to L’Oréal in a deal worth millions. That said, real problems persist. Poverty,
The multiplier effect of such activity on though generally declining, still affects a
the wider economy is powerful. These enter- significant percentage of the population, and
prises generate relatively stable jobs and in- in some regions, population growth is lead-
comes, which in turn drive consumption and ing to more poverty. This usually goes hand
boost the middle class. In addition, as these in hand with system failures in health care
businesses grow and develop, they require and education. Unreliable infrastructure and
more sophisticated levels of support in terms auxiliary services such as power, water and
of financing and ICT, which opens up ancil- transportation networks continue to present
lary business opportunities to facilitate their challenges.
transition to the formal economy. These shortfalls persist owing to “extrac-
tive elites,” which the economists Daron Ac-
INCREASED FDI AND STEADY DIVERSIFICATION. emoglu and James Robinson describe in their
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has increased book, Why Nations Fail. These are rapacious,
steadily since 2004, but compared with other politically powerful actors who will expro-
emerging markets, it remains constrained and priate the majority of a society’s wealth and
directed mainly at extractive industries and in- resources for themselves. Having to deal with
frastructure projects. However, there are signs these entrenched local political interests and
of diversification, particularly in East Africa, with tribalism can translate into higher costs for
business.
to carry out a proper market analysis on the the continent, but especially in countries with
favorability of the markets in which you are socialist-inclined regimes.
interested. The following dimensions need to In addition to the influence of these out-
be assessed at the very least (see Exhibit 2). side actors, many countries have well-estab-
lished diaspora communities, such as the
ECONOMIC POTENTIAL & DEGREE OF DIVERSIFI- Lebanese community in West Africa and the
CATION. Entry in a given country is dependent Indian community in East Africa, which are
on your particular industry. A construction or powerful actors in certain sectors.
industrial goods company would obviously tar-
get Nigeria, Mozambique, Angola and Congo for This need for strategic focus implies that
their abundant supplies of oil, gas and minerals. successful business models are not so easy to
Consumer goods and services companies, on the replicate across borders. M-Pesa, the mobile
other hand, might find Kenya, Ghana and Nigeria money transfer system of Kenya’s Vodafone
better markets, given their middle incomes, large franchise, Safaricom, is a case in point. After
urban populations and high literacy rates. its quick penetration of the Kenyan market,
Vodafone believed expansion into neighbor-
MARKET ORIENTATION & RULE OF LAW. Countries ing Tanzania, a country of similar size, popula-
that adopted market-oriented economic systems tion and language, would be straightforward.
since independence, such as Kenya, Senegal and In reality, cultural differences, access to dis-
Botswana, tend to have more dynamic, less gov- tribution networks, the role of the regulator
ernment-controlled economies. Others, such as and even the emotional non-attachment of
Tanzania and Mozambique, are more inclined the Tanzanian population to a Kenyan brand
toward state intervention in economic life, while made it more difficult than imagined.
Ethiopia is mimicking the Chinese development Of course, internationalization is happen-
model of high government intervention com- ing across the continent. But as Africa Ariño
bined with high local private initiative. writes elsewhere in this same IESE Insight
Apart from market orientation, you also dossier, companies wishing to expand their
need to consider the independence of a coun- operations across the continent need to make
try’s judicial system, the freedom of its media sure their strategies are informed by a deep
and the guarantees of civil liberties. To oper- grasp of the non-traditional factors and soft
ate in Africa, it is better to follow the right and variables that make growing a business in any
long way than taking shortcuts. one country possible.
exhibit 2
Country Taxonomy for Doing Business
THE FOLLOWING DIMENSIONS NEED TO BE ASSESSED AS PART OF A
STRATEGIC ANALYSIS PROCESS.
Social, Anglo: Cameroon, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Liberia, Anglo: Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sudan,
Economic Malawi, Sierra Leone, Somalia (fading Italian Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe
& Cultural influence), South Sudan Anglo-Dutch-German: South Africa (and region of
Proximity French: Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, influence)
Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, French: Rwanda, Senegal
DRC, Djibouti, Gabon, Guinea, Ivory Coast,
Madagascar, Mali, Niger, Togo Portuguese: Angola
Portuguese: Cape Verde, Equat. Guinea (also Spanish), China Push: Angola, Ghana, Sudan (strong), Tanzania,
Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique, São Tomé & Principe Zambia (moderate)
China Push: Ethiopia, Mozambique
For instance, it is usual for industrial com- In addition to infrastructure and distribu-
panies to own and operate their own power- tion networks, there are professional short-
generating and sewage facilities, and even to falls, too. Outside of South Africa, Nigeria,
have a small department in charge of trading Kenya and Ghana, professional services like
and importing oil or some other raw materials marketing and accounting are not always up
as part of their operations. to the requisite international standards.
For consumer goods and services com- For this reason, many companies take a
panies, this extended perimeter may include staggered operations approach. They initial-
the distribution network to make their prod- ly trade or import finished products, before
ucts or services accessible to local markets. gradually assuming control over some part
Companies such as Coca-Cola, Nestlé and of the distribution chain and commercializa-
Gallina Blanca have well-developed multitier tion process. Once sales are secure, they start
systems, relying partly on their own distribu- to engage in some basic value-added activi-
tion centers and delivery trucks, and working ties locally while still sourcing mainly from
in partnership with local entrepreneurs who abroad. Finally, they integrate forward, incor-
act as wholesalers for them. porating the whole production chain.
Due to the lack of direct land connectiv- the right partners, it will be practically impos-
ity, border bureaucracy and differences in sible to start a business or get anything done.
regulation across countries, some redundant To get around these dynamics, you could
country-specific management and opera- go for a direct acquisition of an established
tional structures are inevitable. This was so business. As stock markets are small and not
for Coca-Cola, whose franchise, the Equato- very liquid, many local companies are seeking
rial Coca-Cola Bottling Company, at one stage foreign partners, and there are ways to buy
operated 19 factories, each with independent your way into the market like L’Oréal did with
management, in the 13 countries where they its acquisition of Nice & Lovely. As consumer
bottled, distributed and marketed the exact goods, agribusinesses, Internet companies
same beverages. and professional services expand across the
In spite of such redundancies, this ex- continent, there will likely be more opportu-
tended perimeter can be transformed into an nities of this nature.
opportunity, providing additional sources of But be careful. Africa is also special in
revenue and affording first-mover competi- terms of the competition for “development
tive advantage over latecomers. Freightwings, money,” such as “social impact” funds and
for example, the logistics and freight forward- loan programs offered by the World Bank
ing division of the agribusiness Vegpro, offers Group’s International Finance Corporation
services to other exporters of agricultural (IFC). Critics argue that the preferential con-
products from Kenya, which generates con- ditions offered in some of these “deals” may
siderable revenue for Vegpro. actually be distorting acquisition target prices
in sectors like health, education and respon-
3. Finance & Resources: Identify sible tourism. Private investors must never let
Local Partnerships & Ownership themselves get complacent about the special
Local connections are key everywhere in the character of Africa.
world to understand local markets. But in Af-
rica they are even more important for navi- 4. People Management:
gating the regulations, winning approvals Develop & Retain Your Talent
and gaining access to resources like land and Finding and retaining talent is by far the most
financing. relevant concern for managers. Talent short-
In many African countries, retail and com- ages are a serious problem – both at the lower
mercial banks primarily serve governments end, because of lack of training and high il-
and large public companies rather than the literacy rates, and at the upper end, because
private sector (albeit this is changing). Con- of the shortage of managerial expertise. As
sequently, people rely on alternative sources the people we interviewed acknowledged,
for funding, mainly family and friends. competent local managers are highly sought
Given the central role of the extended after and come at a premium, sometimes com-
family in African societies, this means that manding salaries larger than those in devel-
wealth ends up being concentrated in certain oped economies.
segments of the population. This creates in We do not expect this situation to change
each country a web of family businesses with in the short term. As with operations, this
interconnected owners who control key peo- means companies may have to reach outside
ple and resources like land. Unless you under- their traditional roles and boundaries to work
stand how these communities work and select in collaboration with universities and public
exhibit 3
A Road Map for Africa
IN YOUR BUSINESS PLAN, PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION TO FIVE PILLARS
OF GENERAL MANAGEMENT.
3. Finance & Business ownership and wealth Understand relevant local communities and
Resources concentrated interconnections
Poor access to banking finance Develop partnerships with well-connected local players
Consider direct acquisition of established, mid-sized local
businesses
4. People Low skills: lack of industrial expertise Budget for expensive top managerial talent
Management Scarce pool of talented managers Develop partnerships with educational and public
Short-term mentality institutions
Leverage motivators: health plans and education; explicit
career paths
5. Stakeholder Corruption tolerated at the private Favor those with long-term orientations
Engagement level Select trustworthy customers and partners
Social practices related to exchanges Be public and transparent in all your dealings
of favors, wealth redistribution
Understand and leverage social programs
institutions to create fresh educational ini- potentials early on, and clarifying career
tiatives tailored toward developing market paths and growth plans for them, including
skills. General Electric is pioneering some giving them international exposure.
initiatives in this regard, collaborating with
engineering and business schools in East Af- 5. Stakeholder Engagement: Understand
rica. At the lower level, it may be necessary to the Power of Communities
invest in vocational training. Yes, corruption exists and its influence on the
As important as training is, socioeconom- development of the continent is huge. All in-
ic realities understandably make employees terviewed managers agree that corruption is
more preoccupied about short-term needs. publicly rejected by governments and insti-
Managers said it was hard to convince em- tutions, but privately tolerated. (Africa is not
ployees of the payoff that training would have alone in this.) Managers recommended the
on their careers further down the road when following approach:
a competitor was offering them the chance to
earn more money now. PATIENCE & A LONG-TERM VIEW. As one entrepre-
To retain employees, managers suggested neur in Kenya remarked, not taking the easy route
that extending health benefits to family mem- of corruption may mean that your business will
bers and supporting their pursuit of higher grow at a slower rate, but it doesn’t mean you
education are effective motivators, especially can’t be successful. There is growing awareness
for lower level workers. For mid-level manag- and understanding among business leaders that
ers, they stressed the need to identify high corrupt practices are not the only way. Finding
trustworthy partners and customers may take opportunities, whose challenges, though real,
time and reduce your potential market, but do- should not be exaggerated.
ing so will lead to a more resilient business over Making a business run smoothly in an un-
the long term. Keep in mind that most African familiar environment takes time and effort.
countries are relationship-oriented rather than In your business plan, pay special attention
legalistic, so it is worth taking more time to build to the five pillars, adding contingency time
enduring relationships. to reach your desired goals (see Exhibit 3).
Many things are possible if you adopt a long-
BE PUBLIC. In the intertwined business communi- term mentality, persevere and, above all, are
ties of most African countries, everybody knows humble and open-minded enough to under-
everybody else. Being open in the media about stand the context and get deeply informed
everything you do means any corrupt parties will about cross-cultural differences.
have to think twice about interfering in business Finally, not only does Africa offer opportu-
deals that stand to benefit the public, as the con- nities, it deserves to be given an opportunity.
sequences could come back to bite them. Admit- As we are seeing with other emerging econo-
tedly, the reputational card works better for large mies, business development and private en-
corporations than for small and medium-sized trepreneurship, supported by solid institu-
firms with less reputation at stake. tions, are crucial for developing countries
and lifting people out of poverty. If business
UNDERSTAND THE SOCIAL RULES & THE ROLE OF leaders aspire to have a deep, positive, lasting
COMMUNITY. Many times, the corruption is not impact on the future of our world, then nowa-
blatant but falls in a gray zone. The social cus- days Africa is the place to make this happen.
tom of gift-giving would be an example. More-
over, many community leaders consider it
their duty to redistribute wealth and exchange TO KNOW MORE
favors among members belonging to their
network. Understanding these social rules is The following IESE case studies are available from
paramount, not least to preempt conflicts and IESE Publishing (www.iesep.com) along with
misunderstandings. related IESE Insight articles on real-life business
One manager made sure there weren’t too dilemmas in Africa.
many members of the same community work-
ing together in the same department, not just n Sieber, S., A. Lago and T. Go. “M-Pesa: Mobile
to avoid the temptation of corrupt conduct, Banking in Kenya.” IESE Publishing (SI-192-E),
but also to ensure that diverse sets of people 2014.
worked together to serve varied groups of cus-
tomers, independent of anyone’s background. n Nueno, P. and P. Akua Afful-Kwaw. “Vodafone
For another manager of a construction com- Ghana.” IESE Publishing (E-153-E), 2013.
pany, whenever he arrived on a site, he made “Vodafone Ghana: Are Profits Just a Call Away?”
sure to meet with local leaders first to develop IESE Insight, Issue 18, Third Quarter 2013.
social outreach activities as a means of win-
ning the favor of local communities without n Chaturvedi, A. and V. Martínez de Albéniz. “The
having to bribe anyone. Flower and the Volcano: How Eyjafjallajokull
Disrupted Kenya’s Flower Industry.” IESE
A Final Remark: Make a Deep, Publishing (P-1106-E), 2011. “Kenyan Flower
Positive, Lasting Impact Industry: A Business as Delicate as a Flower.”
There is an oft-cited quote about business in IESE Insight, Issue 12, First Quarter 2012.
Africa by Mo Ibrahim, founder of the mobile
phone company Celtel, that goes, “Whenever n Szecowka, B. and L.G. Renart. “Gallina Blanca
there is gap between perception and real- Star Africa: To Launch or Not to Launch a
ity, there’s a fantastic business opportunity.” Bouillon Tablet Enriched With Vitamin A?” IESE
We can only back this statement. We hope Publishing (M-1238-E), 2010. “Gallina Blanca:
nothing in this article deters you from see- Adapting to African Tastes.” IESE Insight, Issue 7,
ing Africa for what it is: a continent ripe with Fourth Quarter 2010.