Exercise 4.

Markov chains (Initial state multiplication):

Suppose that 4 types of soft drinks are obtained in the market: Colombian, Pepsi
Cola, Fanta and Coca Cola when a person has bought Colombian there is a probability
that they will continue to consume 40%, 20% of which will buy Pepsi Cola, 10% that
Fanta buys and 30% that Coca Cola consumes; when the buyer currently consumes
Pepsi Cola there is a probability that he will continue to buy 30%, 20% buy
Colombiana, 20% that Fanta consumes and 30% Coca Cola; if Fanta is currently
consumed, the likelihood of it continuing to be consumed is 20%, 40% buy
Colombian, 20% consume Pepsi Cola and 20% go to Coca Cola. If you currently
consume Coca Cola the probability that it will continue to consume is 50%, 20% buy
Colombian, 20% that consumes Pepsi Cola and 10% that is passed to Fanta.
odds that each client has to stay in their current operator or make a change of
company.

At present, each Colombian brand, Pepsi Cola, Fanta and Coca Cola have the
following percentages in market share respectively (18%, 32%, 15% and 35%)
during week 7.

Find the transition matrix with the participation of each event according to its total.

State Colombian Pepsi Fanta Cocacola

Colombian 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3
Pepsi 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
Fanta 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
Cocacola 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5

Week 7 Colombian Pepsi Fanta Cocacola

E0 0.18 0.32 0.15 0.35

Colombian Pepsi Fanta Cocacola

E1
0.266 0.232 0.147 0.355

Colombian Pepsi Fanta Cocacola

E2
0.2826 0.2232 0.1379 0.3563

Colombian Pepsi Fanta Cocacola

E3
E3
0.2841 0.22232 0.13611 0.35747

Colombian Pepsi Fanta Cocacola

E4
0.284042 0.222232 0.135843 0.357883

Colombian Pepsi Fanta Cocacola

E5
0.283977 0.2222232 0.1358075 0.3579923

Colombian Pepsi Fanta Cocacola

E6
0.2839569 0.22222232 0.13580307 0.35801771

Colombian Pepsi Fanta Cocacola

E7
0.283951994 0.222222232 0.135802539 0.358023235