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IMPORTANCE The clinical benefits of novel treatments for moderate to severe psoriasis are Supplemental content
well established, but wide variations exist in patient response across different therapies.
In the absence of head-to-head randomized trials, meta-analyses synthesizing data from
multiple studies are needed to assess comparative efficacy among psoriasis treatments.
OBJECTIVE To estimate the relative short-term and long-term efficacy of biologics and oral
agents for the treatment of moderate to severe psoriasis.
DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Data were extracted based on the Preferred Reporting
Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analysis guidelines. A bayesian network meta-analysis
was conducted to estimate short-term PASI response rates; to account for variation across
trials, an ordinal model that adjusted for reference arm response was implemented.
The long-term PASI rates were estimated via a traditional meta-analysis.
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES PASI 75, 90, and 100 response rates at 10 to 16 weeks
and 44 to 60 weeks from baseline.
RESULTS Sixty trials meeting all inclusion criteria were included. At weeks 10 to 16, the highest
PASI 90 rates were seen with risankizumab-rzaa (71.6%; 95% credible interval [CrI],
67.5%-75.4%), brodalumab (70.8%; 95% CrI, 66.8%-74.6%), ixekizumab (70.6%; 95% CrI,
66.8%-74.6%), and guselkumab (67.3%; 62.5%-71.9%). At weeks 44 to 60, the treatments
with the highest PASI 90 rates were risankizumab-rzaa (79.4%, 95% CI, 75.5%-82.9%),
guselkumab (76.5%; 95% CI, 72.1%-80.5%), brodalumab (74.0%; 95% CI, 69.3%-78.1%), Author Affiliations: Department of
and ixekizumab (73.9%; 95% CI, 69.9%-77.5%). Findings were consistent for short-term and Dermatology, Keck School of
Medicine, University of Southern
long-term PASI 75 and 100 responses.
California, Los Angeles, California
(Armstrong); Department of
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This study provides an assessment of the comparative
Dermatology, Hospital de la Santa
efficacy among treatments for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. The meta-analysis Creu i Sant Pau, Universitat
suggests that brodalumab, guselkumab, ixekizumab, and risankizumab-rzaa were associated Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona,
with the highest PASI response rates in both short-term and long-term therapy. Spain (Puig); AbbVie, North Chicago,
Illinois (Joshi, Skup, Williams);
Analysis Group Inc, Boston,
Massachusetts (Li); Analysis Group
Inc, Los Angeles, California (Betts);
Health Care Research in Dermatology
and Nursing, University Medical
Center Hamburg-Eppendorf,
Hamburg, Germany (Augustin).
Corresponding Author: April W.
Armstrong, MD, MPH, Department of
Dermatology, Keck School of
Medicine, University of Southern
California, HC4 2000,
1450 San Pablo, Health Sciences
JAMA Dermatol. doi:10.1001/jamadermatol.2019.4029 Campus, Los Angeles, CA 90033
Published online February 5, 2020. (aprilarmstrong@post.harvard.edu).
(Reprinted) E1
© 2020 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
T
he treatment options for patients with moderate to se-
vere psoriasis have expanded greatly over the past Key Points
decade.1-4 Among the treatments, biologics provide
Question What is the short-term and long-term comparative
targeted inhibition of immune-mediated pathways involving efficacy among biologics and oral agents for plaque psoriasis?
specific cytokines, such as tumor necrosis factor (TNF), inter-
Findings In a network meta-analysis of 60 clinical trials for
leukin (IL)-17, and IL-23. 5,6 Biologics licensed by the US
short-term efficacy, brodalumab, guselkumab, ixekizumab,
Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines
and risankizumab-rzaa had the highest Psoriasis Area and
Agency for the treatment of moderate to severe psoriasis Severity Index response rates at 10 to 16 weeks from baseline.
include the tumor necrosis factor inhibitors adalimumab, A meta-analysis of long-term efficacy suggested that brodalumab,
etanercept, infliximab, and certolizumab pegol; the IL-12/23 guselkumab, ixekizumab, and risankizumab-rzaa had the highest
inhibitor ustekinumab; the IL-17 inhibitors secukinumab, response rates at 44 to 60 weeks.
ixekizumab, and brodalumab; and the IL-23 inhibitors Meaning This study provides an assessment of both short-term
tildrakizumab-asmn, guselkumab, and risankizumab-rzaa.7-9 and long-term comparative efficacy among treatments for
Although the increased options of biologics and oral treat- moderate to severe plaque psoriasis which can help health care
ments for moderate to severe psoriasis have provided sub- stakeholders optimize treatment regimens.
stantial benefit to patients, it can be challenging for clinicians
to determine how the medications compare with one an-
other. Variations exist across different therapies with regard reductions) at the end of the primary response period (10-16
to efficacy, safety, and dosing profiles.10,11 weeks from baseline) or at the end of the maintenance period
Although several head-to-head trials exist,12-22 they are not (44-60 weeks from baseline).
available for all possible comparisons. In the absence of head-
to-head trials across the entire set of comparators, studies that Comparators
combine and analyze data from multiple studies are needed Comparators for the base case analyses included anti-TNF
to determine comparative efficacy. The overall objective in this agents (etanercept, 25 mg, twice weekly or 50 mg once weekly,
study is to evaluate the comparative efficacy of systemic treat- or etanercept, 50 mg twice weekly until week 12, then once
ments for psoriasis, including newly developed biologics. weekly; adalimumab, 80 mg, at week 0, then 40 mg every
Specifically, the short-term, relative rates of Psoriasis Area 2 weeks starting at week 1; certolizumab pegol, 400 mg, at
and Severity Index (PASI) response are estimated via a net- weeks 0, 2, and 4, then 200 mg every 2 weeks; certolizumab
work meta-analysis (NMA), and the long-term PASI response pegol, 400 mg, every 2 weeks; infliximab, 5 mg/kg, at weeks
rates following maintenance therapy are estimated via a tra- 0, 2, and 6, then every 8 weeks), apremilast, 30 mg, twice daily
ditional meta-analysis. after initial titration schedule; dimethyl fumarate, ustekinumab
weight-based dosage (45 mg ≤100 kg, 90 mg >100 kg at weeks
0 and 4, then every 12 weeks), anti-IL-17 agents (secukinumab,
300 mg, at weeks 0, 1, 2, and 3, then every 4 weeks starting
Methods at week 4; ixekizumab, 160 mg, at week 0, then 80 mg every
Search Strategy 2 weeks; brodalumab, 210 mg, at weeks 0, 1, and 2, then ev-
A systematic literature review was performed on December 4, ery 2 weeks), and anti-IL-23 agents (tildrakizumab-asmn,
2017, and updated on September 17, 2018, to identify random- 100 mg, at weeks 0, 4, then every 12 weeks; tildrakizumab-
ized clinical trials of treatments licensed by the US Food and asmn, 200 mg, at weeks 0, 4, then every 12 weeks; guselkumab,
Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency for 100 mg, at weeks 0, 4, then every 8 weeks; risankizumab-
adults with moderate to severe psoriasis. This systematic re- rzaa, 150 mg, at weeks 0, 4, then every 12 weeks). Different
view was conducted based on the Preferred Reporting Items dosing schedules of etanercept with 25 mg twice weekly and
for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis guidelines for Net- 50 mg once weekly were assumed to have the same clinical ef-
work Meta-Analysis (PRISMA-NMA) using Embase, MEDLINE, ficacy, and the 2 dosages were pooled into a single etaner-
and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials.23 Iden- cept, 25 mg twice weekly/50 mg once weekly, treatment arm.
tified studies were independently assessed by 2 reviewers for For the outcomes at the end of the maintenance period, a dose
inclusion at each stage of study selection. Any discrepancies of 50 mg twice weekly until week 12 then once weekly (ap-
between the inclusion/exclusion decisions were resolved by proved by the US Food and Drug Administration and also as
a third independent reviewer. an alternative dosage licensed by the European Medicines
Agency) was used. In addition, the following conventional sys-
Inclusion Criteria temic treatments were included in a sensitivity analysis for the
To be included in the analyses, studies were required to (1) be short-term analyses: acitretin, 0.4 mg/kg daily, cyclosporine,
a phase 2, 3, or 4 randomized clinical trial on adults with mod- 2.5-3 mg/kg/d (initial dose), fumaric acid esters (licensed in Ger-
erate to severe psoriasis who were eligible for systemic thera- many only), low-dose methotrexate (initial dose of 5-7.5 mg
pies and phototherapy, (2) include European Medicines Agen- once weekly, increased as needed and as tolerated up to a maxi-
cy–licensed treatments and dosages for moderate to severe mum of 15-25 mg once weekly), and high-dose methotrexate
psoriasis, and (3) report at least 1 of the efficacy outcomes of (initial dose of 15 mg once weekly, increased as needed up to
interest (PASI 75, 90, and 100, indicating 75%, 90%, or 100% a maximum of 20-22.5 mg once weekly).
Figure 2. Evidence Network for Network Meta-analysis (NMA) of Short-term Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) (Base Case)
PSOR-010/LIBERATE
Apremilast 30 mg
CIMPASI-1
CIMPASI-2 reSURFACE-1
Etanercept 25 mg twice
CIMPACT Papp 2015
weekly, 50 mg once weekly
PSOR-008/ESTEEM-1 reSURFACE-2
Certolizumab pegol 400 mg PSOR-009/ESTEEM-2
Tildrakizumab 200 mg
PSOR-010/LIBERATE
PSOR-005
CIMPASI-1 Ohtsuki 2017
CIMPASI-2
Certolizumab pegol 200 mg CIMPACT Leonardi 2003 reSURFACE-1 Tildrakizumab 100 mg
NCT00245765 Papp 2005 Papp 2015
van de Kerkhof 2008 reSURFACE-2
Gottlieb 2003 reSURFACE-1
CIMPASI-1
PSOR-010/LIBERATE Papp 2015
CIMPASI-2
reSURFACE-2
CIMPACT EXPRESS
EXPRESS II
SPIRIT
Dimethyl fumarate Chaudhari 2001 Infliximab 5 mg/kg
BRIDGE Torii 2010
VOYAGE-1 Yang 2012 LOTUS
VOYAGE-2 PEARL
ORION PHOENIX 1
Ohtsuki 2018 PHOENIX 2
Placebo Igarashi 2012
Asahina 2010
PHOENIX 1
Guselkumab 100 mg Bissonnette 2013 Ustekinumab 45 mg
PHOENIX 2
REVEAL
Nakagawa 2016 Igarashi 2012 ACCEPT
VOYAGE-1 CHAMPION
Papp 2012 PHOENIX 1
VOYAGE-2 Gordon 2006 ERASURE
AMAGINE-1 PHOENIX 2
Cai 2017 FEATURE
AMAGINE-2 Igarashi 2012
X-PLORE FIXTURE
UltIMMa1 AMAGINE-3 UNCOVER 1
VOYAGE-1 JUNCTURE
UltIMMa2
VOYAGE-2 UNCOVER 2 Ustekinumab 90 mg
IMMhance
VIP-U UNCOVER 3
AMAGINE-2
Adalimumab 40 mg AMAGINE-3
UltIMMa1
UltIMMa2
IMMvent
Brodalumab 210 mg
Ustekinumab 45 mg ≤100 kg
90 mg >100 kg
The reference citations for the NMA are as follows: PSOR-010/LIBERATE: reference 20; CIMPASI-1: reference 65; CIMPASI-2: reference 65; CIMPACT: reference 66;
reSURFACE-1: reference 68; Papp 2005: reference 38; reSURFACE-2: reference 68; PSOR-008/ESTEEM-1: reference 71; PSOR-009/ESTEEM-2: reference 72;
PSOR-005: reference 73; Ohtsuki 2017: reference 74; NCT00245765: reference 67; Papp 2015: reference 69; Leonardi 2003: reference 37; van de Kerkhof 2008:
reference 39; Gottlieb 2003: reference 40; EXPRESS: reference 41; EXPRESS II: reference 42; SPIRIT: reference 43; Chaudhari 2001: reference 44; Torii 2010:
reference 45; Yang 2012: reference 46; BRIDGE: reference 31; VOYAGE-1: reference 17; VOYAGE-2: reference 18; ORION: reference 60; Ohtsuki 2018: reference 61;
LOTUS: reference 54; PEARL: reference 55; PHOENIX 1: reference 56; PHOENIX 2: reference 57; Igarashi 2012: reference 58; Asahina 2010: reference 30;
Bissonnette 2013: reference 31; REVEAL: reference 32; CHAMPION: reference 33; Gordon 2006: reference 34; Cai 2017: reference 35; X-PLORE: reference 58;
ACCEPT: reference 53; Nakagawa 2016: reference 62; Papp 2012: reference 63; AMAGINE-1: reference 64; AMAGINE-2: reference 19; AMAGINE-3: reference 19;
ERASURE: reference 50; FEATURE: reference 51; FIXTURE: reference 50; JUNCTURE: reference 52; UltIMMa-1: reference 15; UltIMMa-2: reference 15; IMMhance:
reference 83; UNCOVER 1: reference 47; UNCOVER 2: reference 48; UNCOVER 3: reference 48; VIP-U: reference 59; IMMvent: reference 21; CLEAR: reference 13;
CLARITY: reference 26; and IXORA-S: reference 16.
at 10 to 16 weeks from baseline were 71.6% (95% CrI, 67.5%- 200 mg; 38.8% (95% CrI, 33.3%-44.7%) for tildrakizumab-
75.4%) for risankizumab-rzaa; 70.8% (95% CrI, 66.8%- asmn, 200 mg; 36.8% (31.4%-42.5%) for tildrakizumab-
74.6%) for brodalumab; 70.6% (95% CrI, 66.8%-74.6%) for asmn, 100 mg; 17.9% (CrI, 14.9%-21.4%) for etanercept; 12.1%
ixekizumab; 67.3% (95% CrI, 62.5%-71.9%) for guselkumab; (95% CrI, 9.9%-14.7%) for apremilast; 11.4% (95% CrI, 7.5%-
61.4% (95% CrI, 57.2%-65.6%) for secukinumab; 57.4% 16.7%) for dimethyl fumarate; and 1.1% (95% CrI, 1.0%-1.3%)
(95% CrI, 52.2%-62.8%) for infliximab; 45.6% (39.3%-52.2%) for placebo. In addition, the ORs of achieving the given PASI
for certolizumab pegol, 400 mg; 43.9% (40.2%-47.9%) for response (PASI 75, 90, and 100) for each intervention vs bro-
ustekinumab; 43.7% (95% CrI, 40.0%-47.4%) for adalim- dalumab, guselkumab, ixekizumab, and risankizumab-rzaa are
umab; 40.2% (95% CrI, 33.5%-47.2%) for certolizumab pegol, illustrated in eFigure 1 in the Supplement.
Table. Estimated Response Rates From the NMA of Short-term PASI (Base Case)
Among all of the comparators evaluated, brodalumab, gusel- analysis. The median posterior probability of PASI 75, 90, and
kumab, ixekizumab, and risankizumab-rzaa had the highest 100 rates for each intervention are presented in eTable 2 in the
PASI 75, 90, and 100 rates at the end of the primary response pe- Supplement. The results from the sensitivity analysis based
riod, and there were no statistically significant differences among on phase 3 trials were consistent with those from the base-
these treatments. Brodalumab, guselkumab, ixekizumab, and case analysis.
risankizumab-rzaa had significantly higher PASI 75, 90, and 100 For the sensitivity analysis of the expanded treatment
rates (with 95% probability) compared with adalimumab, apre- space, a total of 70 trials were included. The median posterior
milast, certolizumab pegol, dimethyl fumarate, etanercept, probability of PASI 75, 90, and 100 rates for each intervention are
tildrakizumab-asmn, and ustekinumab. Brodalumab, ixeki- presented in eTable 2 in the Supplement. The results from the
zumab, and risankizumab-rzaa also had significantly higher rates sensitivity analysis of the expanded treatment space were also
compared with infliximab and secukinumab across all PASI out- consistent with those from the base-case analysis.
comes (with 95% probability).
The NNT to achieve PASI 75, 90, or 100 for each treat- Long-term Efficacy
ment relative to placebo is presented in Figure 3. To achieve a A total of 22 trials on 10 treatments meeting all inclusion cri-
PASI 75 response, the NNT was 1.19 (95% CrI, 1.16-1.23) with teria were included in the meta-analysis. The estimated re-
risankizumab-rzaa, 1.20 (95% CrI, 1.17-1.23) with ixekizumab sponse rates (PASI 75, 90, and 100) of each intervention are
and brodalumab, and 1.23 (95% CrI, 1.19-1.27) with gusel- presented in Figure 4.13,15-18,20,21,34,41,42,47,50-52,73,74,84-86 The
kumab. The NNT to achieve a PASI 90 response was 1.42 estimated PASI 90 response rates at 44 to 60 weeks from base-
(95% CrI, 1.35-1.51) with risankizumab-rzaa, 1.43 (95% CrI, 1.36- line were 79.4% (95% CI, 75.5%-82.9%) for risankizumab-
1.52) with ixekizumab, 1.44 (95% CrI, 1.36-1.52) with bro- rzaa, 76.5% (95% CI, 72.1%-80.5%) for guselkumab, 74.0%
dalumab, and 1.51 (95% CrI, 1.41-1.63) with guselkumab. The (95% CI, 69.3%-78.1%) for brodalumab, 73.9% (95% CI, 69.9%-
NNT to achieve a PASI 100 response was 2.48 (95% CrI, 2.23- 77.5%) for ixekizumab, 71.3% (95% CI, 64.2%-77.5%) for
2.79) with risankizumab-rzaa, 2.54 (95% CrI, 2.28-2.85) with secukinumab, 52.4% (95% CI, 47.1%-57.7%) for ustekinumab,
ixekizumab, 2.56 (95% CrI, 2.28-2.85) with brodalumab, and 46.2% (95% CI, 38.6%-53.9%) for adalimumab, 40.1% (95% CI,
2.81 (95% CrI, 2.46-3.25) with guselkumab. 30.0%-51.1%) for infliximab, 33.4% (95% CI, 28.5%-38.7%) for
etanercept, and 16.0% (95% CI, 10.7%-23.3%) for apremilast.
Sensitivity Analyses: Short-term Efficacy In addition, the ORs of achieving PASI 75, 90, and 100 for each
Among the 60 trials included in the base-case, 10 are country- intervention vs brodalumab, guselkumab, ixekizumab, and
specific trials and were excluded from this sensitivity analy- risankizumab-rzaa are presented in eFigure 2 in the Supple-
sis. The median posterior probability of PASI 75, 90, and 100 ment. Among the comparators, the highest estimated PASI
rates for each intervention are presented in eTable 2 in the 75, 90, and 100 response rates at 44 to 60 weeks from base-
Supplement. Overall, the results from the sensitivity analysis line occurred following treatment with brodalumab, gusel-
including only global trials were consistent with the base- kumab, ixekizumab, risankizumab-rzaa, and secukinumab,
case analysis. which were significantly higher than those corresponding
Among the 60 trials included in the base case, 47 were to adalimumab, apremilast, etanercept, infliximab, and
phase 3 trials that were included in the following sensitivity ustekinumab. In addition, risankizumab-rzaa had significantly
PASI 75, 90, 100, indicates 75%, 90%, or 100% decrease from baseline.
jamadermatology.com
Figure 4. Estimated Response Rate From the Meta-analysis of Long-term Placebo for Short-term Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) (Base Case)
Response Rate PASI 75 Response Rate PASI 90 Response Rate PASI 100
Therapy (95% CI), % (95% CI), % (95% CI), %
Risankizumab-rzaa 150 mg at week 0, 4, then every 12 wk
IMMvent21 (N = 301) 86.7 (8.24-90.1) 75.7 (70.6-80.3) 52.8 (47.2-58.4)
UltIMMa115 (N = 304) 91.8 (88.1-94.4) 81.9 (77.2-85.8) 56.3 (50.6-61.7)
jamadermatology.com
UltIMMa215 (N = 294) 91.5 (87.7-94.2) 80.6 (75.7-84.7) 59.5 (53.8-65.0)
Overall 90.1 (86.3-92.9) 79.4 (75.5-82.9) 56.2 (52.4-59.9)
Guselkumab 100 mg at week 0, 4, then every 8 wk
61
Ohtsuki 2018 (N = 63) 90.5 (80.4-95.7) 77.8 (65.9-86.4) 47.6 (35.7-59.8)
VOYAGE 117 (N = 329) 87.8 (83.8-91.0) 76.3 (71.4-80.6) 47.4 (42.1-52.8)
Overall 88.2 (84.6-91.1) 76.5 (72.1-80.5) 47.4 (42.5-52.4)
Brodalumab 210 mg at week 0, 1, 2, then every 2 wk
AMAGINE-279 (N = 189) 80.0 (73.7-85.1) 75.0 (68.3-80.7) 56.0 (48.8-62.9)
AMAGINE-379 (N = 194) 80.0 (73.8-85.0) 73.0 (66.3-78.8) 53.0 (46.0-59.9)
Overall 80.0 (75.7-83.7) 74.0 (69.3-78.1) 54.5 (49.5-59.4)
Ixekizumab 160 mg at week 0, 80 mg every 2 wk
until week 12, then 80 mg every 4 wk
IXORA-S16 (N = 136) 88.2 (81.6-92.6) 76.5 (68.7-82.9) 52.2 (43.8-60.5)
UNCOVER 348 (N = 385) 83.0 (78.9-86.4) 73.0 (68.3-77.2) 55.0 (50.0-59.9)
Overall 85.0 (79.2-89.4) 73.9 (69.9-77.5) 54.3 (50.0-58.5)
Secukinumab 300 mg at week 0, 1, 2, and 3,
then every 4 wk
Comparison of Biologics and Oral Treatments for Plaque Psoriasis
higher PASI 90 rates than ixekizumab and secukinumab; analytic approaches have important roles in integrating evi-
risankizumab-rzaa, brodalumab, and ixekizumab had signifi- dence from multiple studies to determine the relative effi-
cantly higher PASI 100 rates than secukinumab, and cacy of treatments and inform clinical decision making.91 This
risankizumab-rzaa and ixekizumab also had significantly study provides a comprehensive assessment of the short-
higher PASI 100 rates than guselkumab (eFigure 2 in the term and long-term comparative efficacy of biologics and oral
Supplement). therapies approved by the US Food and Drug Administration
and the European Medicines Agency for the treatment of mod-
Sensitivity Analyses: Long-term Efficacy erate to severe plaque psoriasis.
The estimated long-term response rates for PASI 75, 90, and Results from this study suggest that brodalumab, gusel-
100 of each intervention in the sensitivity analyses are kumab, ixekizumab, and risankizumab-rzaa had signifi-
presented in eTable 3 in the Supplement. Among the 22 trials cantly higher PASI response rates than adalimumab, apremi-
included in the base-case analysis, the sensitivity analysis last, certolizumab pegol, dimethyl fumarate, etanercept,
including only global trials excluded 2 country-specific trials tildrakizumab-asmn, and ustekinumab at the end of the pri-
and produced results consistent with the base-case analysis. mary response period. There were no statistically significant
A total of 14 trials that reported NRI data at the end of the main- differences in short-term efficacy among brodalumab, gusel-
tenance period (44-60 weeks from baseline) were included in kumab, ixekizumab, and risankizumab-rzaa. Over the long-
the sensitivity analysis including only NRI data. The results of term, brodalumab, guselkumab, ixekizumab, risankizumab-
this sensitivity analysis were mostly consistent with the base- rzaa, and secukinumab had significantly higher PASI response
case analysis with the exception of secukinumab, which slightly rates than those corresponding to adalimumab, apremilast,
increased because only 1 of the 5 trials that were included in infliximab, etanercept, and ustekinumab.
the base case reported NRI values, and this trial had the high- The short-term results from this study generally align with
est PASI responses of the trials considered.13 Three phase 2 trials published NMAs that compared the efficacy of other biologic
were excluded from the sensitivity analysis including only therapies for treatment of moderate to severe plaque psoria-
phase 3 trials; the results of this sensitivity analyses were con- sis at the end of the primary response period.28,29,92-98 For ex-
sistent with the base-case analysis. ample, a recent NMA study by Sawyer et al95 used similar meth-
To test whether the method of meta-analysis would affect ods and a similar list of trials to suggest that brodalumab,
the results, we conducted an NMA using a fixed-effects bayes- ixekizumab, risankizumab-rzaa, and guselkumab have the
ian multinomial likelihood model with a probit link for the highest short-term PASI response rates.
long-term PASI outcomes using identified randomized clini- The Sawyer et al95 NMA also pointed out the lack of a com-
cal trials that maintained randomization through 52 weeks. prehensive systematic evaluation of long-term efficacy of sys-
Only 7 randomized clinical trials (AMAGINE 2,87 AMAGINE 3,88 temic treatments in patients with moderate to severe psoria-
CLEAR,13 FIXTURE,89 IXORA-S,90 UltIMMa1,15 and UltIMMa215) sis. Work by Nast et al99 found infliximab, secukinumab, and
on 6 treatments (brodalumab, etanercept, ixekizumab, ustekinumab to be the most effective long-term treatment op-
risankizumab-rzaa, secukinumab, and ustekinumab) were able tions. However, owing to clinical and methodologic differ-
to be included into this NMA because of the crossover in the ences among available studies and a lack of sufficiently long-
studies evaluating long-term PASI outcomes (eFigure 3 in the term, head-to-head trials, the strength of the ranking of
Supplement). In the NMA, risankizumab-rzaa (81.3%; 95% CrI, treatment efficacy was limited beyond 24 to 28 weeks.99 A 2017
75.7%-86.1%) had the highest estimated PASI 90 rates, fol- NMA of four 52-week randomized clinical trials found that bro-
lowed by brodalumab (76.6%; 95% CrI, 71.3%-81.4%), ixeki- dalumab achieved significantly higher PASI 100 response rates
zumab (69.8%; 95% CrI, 60.1%-78.3%), secukinumab (65.2%; compared with secukinumab, ustekinumab, and etanercept.100
95% CrI, 58.1%-71.6%), ustekinumab (52.5%; 95% CrI, 49.3%- Nevertheless, only 4 trials were able to be included in the pri-
55.7%), and etanercept (35.9%; 95% CrI, 27.1%-45.6%). As dem- mary indirect comparison owing to study design heteroge-
onstrated by this NMA, risankizumab-rzaa had significantly neity and lack of long-term, active-comparator trial data. The
higher PASI response rates compared with ixekizumab (PASI present study overcame these limitations by using tradi-
90 OR, 1.89; 95% CrI, 1.12-1.99), secukinumab (OR, 2.33; tional meta-analysis methods.
95% CrI, 1.54-3.56), ustekinumab (OR, 3.95; 95% CrI, 2.90- Despite the differences in methods, the results from the
5.45), and etanercept (OR, 7.80; 95% CrI, 4.75-12.94), and bro- long-term traditional meta-analysis are consistent with this
dalumab had significantly higher PASI response rates compared NMA, suggesting the robustness of the meta-analysis results.
with secukinumab (OR, 1.76; 95% CrI, 1.22-2.54), ustekinumab However, the meta-analysis directly synthesized the PASI re-
(OR, 2.97; 95% CrI, 2.32-3.83), and etanercept (OR, 5.86; sponse rates for patients receiving each active treatment dur-
95% CrI, 3.72-9.36) (eTable 4 and eTable 5 in the Supplement). ing both the induction and maintenance periods, making it pos-
sible to include additional treatments beyond the connected
network.
Discussion
Strengths and Limitations
With increased therapeutic options for psoriasis, it has be- The present work analyzes the short-term and long-term ef-
come increasingly challenging for clinicians to compare across ficacy that included all licensed medications to date (eg, bro-
the available treatments for clinical decision making. Meta- dalumab, dimethyl fumarate, guselkumab, risankizumab-
rzaa, and tildrakizumab-asmn). This study also has several characteristics that may modify the treatment effect can in-
other strengths. First, the analytic methods used in the study troduce bias in the comparisons. Although adjusting for the
are well-established, rigorous, treatment comparison tech- reference arm response in this NMA can reduce the effects of
niques. Meta-analyses are a statistical tool used to synthesize cross-trial heterogeneity, there is no guarantee that adjust-
direct evidence from multiple studies to compare 2 interven- ments will eliminate these effects. In addition, subgroup analy-
tions at a time. Network meta-analyses extend traditional meta- ses (eg, by relevant patient characteristics) are generally not
analyses to allow for simultaneous comparison of several dif- feasible because most published trials do not report detailed
ferent treatments that are regularly used in clinical practice but PASI outcomes for subgroups. Second, the findings of this study
have not necessarily been compared head-to-head in a ran- are based on clinical trial data, which may not be generaliz-
domized trial. These methods provide useful evidence about able to real-world settings. Future research may study the com-
the comparative effectiveness of competing interventions— parative efficacy among treatments in real-world settings.
which would otherwise be lacking—in a cost-effective and Moreover, a holistic comparison of psoriasis treatments should
timely manner. The NMA approach used in the analysis of include other key aspects, such as safety profile, effect on qual-
short-term efficacy enabled an estimation of comparative ef- ity of life (eg, the Dermatology Life Quality Index), as well as
fects among treatments that have not yet been investigated in administration and dosing frequency. Third, the short-term
head-to-head randomized clinical trials for moderate to se- efficacy analysis only included efficacy data up to week 16, and
vere plaque psoriasis. Adjusting for the reference arm re- any agent’s full efficacy may not have been achieved at this time
sponse can reduce the outcomes associated with cross-trial point; however, the long-term analyses serve as a comple-
heterogeneity, as the reference arm response rate integrates ment to this short-term assessment. Fourth, the long-term
the results of other observed and unobserved trial-level fac- meta-analysis focused on conducting random-effects meta-
tors likely to affect treatment arm outcomes. The traditional analysis within treatments because an anchor-based ap-
meta-analysis used to assess the long-term outcomes of treat- proach (eg, NMA) would be limited for all treatments owing
ments allowed for the amalgamation of scientific evidence and to crossover and rerandomization. Accordingly, the current
offered an objective appraisal of the available evidence. By meta-analysis using the DerSimonian and Laird27 method can
combining data from multiple independent trials of the same only account for heterogeneity among trials of the same treat-
treatment, the meta-analysis increased the sample size and im- ment but not for different treatments. Hence, the long-term
proved statistical precision for the estimation of long-term PASI meta-analysis results should be interpreted with caution
responses. In addition, the results from the sensitivity analy- beyond the relationships examined in the long-term NMA.
ses were consistent with the base-case analyses for both short-
term and long-term treatment, which supports the robust-
ness of the primary findings. The comparative analyses of
recently available biologic treatments in the present study fills
Conclusions
an important gap in the current body of literature. Additional In the absence of head-to-head randomized clinical trials of
analyses comparing the short-term and long-term safety treatments for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, this study
outcomes are warranted to provide a complete benefit-risk provides what we believe to be a comprehensive assessment
assessment of novel psoriasis therapies for health care of the comparative short-term and long-term efficacy among
stakeholders.101,102 several novel treatments. Over the primary response period and
The results of this analysis should be interpreted within long-term maintenance period, brodalumab, guselkumab,
the context of certain limitations. First, as with all meta- ixekizumab, and risankizumab-rzaa were associated with the
analyses, the presence of cross-trial differences and patient highest estimated PASI 75, 90, and 100 response rates.
ARTICLE INFORMATION Supervision: Armstrong, Puig, Joshi, Skup, Williams, work; and personal fees from Sandoz,
Accepted for Publication: October 25, 2019. Betts, Augustin. Merck-Serono, MSD, Mylan, and Samsung-Bioepis.
Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Dr Armstrong Dr Joshi is an employee AbbVie during the conduct
Published Online: February 5, 2020. of the study. Dr Skup is an employee AbbVie.
doi:10.1001/jamadermatol.2019.4029 reported receiving grants and personal fees from
AbbVie, Eli Lilly, Leo Pharma, and Novartis Dr Williams is an of AbbVie. Dr Li reported receiving
Author Contributions: Drs Li and Betts had full Pharmaceuticals Corp; personal fees from grants from AbbVie during the conduct of the study
access to all of the data in the study and take Boehringer Ingelheim/Parexel, Bristol-Myers outside the submitted work. Dr Betts reported
responsibility for the integrity of the data and the Squibb, Celgene, Dermavant, Janssen receiving consultancy fees from AbbVie Inc. during
accuracy of the data analysis. Pharmaceuticals Inc, Merck, Modernizing Medicine, the conduct of the study. No other disclosures were
Concept and design: Armstrong, Joshi, Skup, Li, Ortho Dermatologics, Pfizer Inc, Regeneron reported.
Betts, Augustin. Pharmaceuticals, Sanofi Genzyme, Science 37 Inc, Funding/Support: Design, study conduct, and
Acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data: Genentech, GlaxoSmithKline, and Valeant; and financial support for the study were provided by
All authors. grants from Dermira, Janssen-Ortho Inc, Kyowa AbbVie.
Drafting of the manuscript: Armstrong, Joshi, Skup, Hakko Kirin, and UCB Pharma outside the
Williams, Li, Betts. Role of the Funder/Sponsor: AbbVie participated
submitted work. Dr Puig reported receiving grants in the interpretation of data, review, and approval
Critical revision of the manuscript for important and personal fees from AbbVie during the conduct
intellectual content: All authors. of the abstract; all authors contributed to the
of the study; grants and personal fees from Almirall, development of the publication and maintained
Statistical analysis: Armstrong, Puig, Joshi, Li, Betts. Amgen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Celgene, Janssen,
Administrative, technical, or material support: Joshi, control over the final content.
Leo-Pharma, Lilly, Novartis, Pfizer, Regeneron,
Williams. Sanofi, Roche, and UCB outside the submitted
Additional Contributions: Yan Wang, ScD, and with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis: CLEAR, a generalized linear modeling framework for
Viviana Garcia-Horton, PhD, provided analytical a randomized controlled trial. J Am Acad Dermatol. pairwise and network meta-analysis of randomized
support and Gloria DeWalt, PhD (Analysis Group Inc), 2015;73(3):400-409. doi:10.1016/j.jaad.2015.05.013 controlled trials. Med Decis Making. 2013;33(5):
provided editorial assistance. Analysis Group Inc 14. Reich K, Armstrong AW, Langley RG, et al. 607-617. doi:10.1177/0272989X12458724
received payment from AbbVie for participation in Guselkumab versus secukinumab for the treatment 25. Dias S, Sutton AJ, Welton NJ, Ades AE.
this research. Palvi Gupta, MPharm, Jatin Gupta, of moderate-to-severe psoriasis (ECLIPSE): results Evidence synthesis for decision making 3:
MPharm, and Rashi Patel, MPharm (DRG Abacus) from a phase 3, randomised controlled trial. Lancet. heterogeneity—subgroups, meta-regression, bias,
provided support with literature search and study 2019;394(10201):831-839. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736 and bias-adjustment. Med Decis Making. 2013;33
selection. (19)31773-8 (5):618-640. doi:10.1177/0272989X13485157
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