December 1974

838 The Journal o f P E D I A T R I C S

Prediction of adult height of gMs from age of

menarche and height at menarche

Rose E. Friseh* and J. Stevan Nagel, Cambridge, Mass.

W E PRESENT A NOMOGRAM (Fig. 1) and the predic-
tion equation on which it is based, for the prediction of
the height of a girl at age 18 years from her age and
height at menarche. Height at 18 years is equivalent to
adult height, since growth has ended by that age in nor-
mal girlsJ "3
growth data of these girls were previously analyzed for
height and weight at menarche, 2,4 at initiation of the
growth spurt, 5 and at peak velocity of the adolescent
growth spurt) The linear regression equation was fit by
the method of least squares.

METHOD
The height and age at menarche were known for each
of 181 girls of three longitudinal growth studies: the
Berkeley Guidance Study, the Child Research Council
Study, and the Longitudinal Studies of Child Health and
Development, Harvard School of Public Health. The
From the Harvard Centerfor Population Studies.
*Reprintaddress:HarvardCenter.forPopulationStudies, 9 BOW
St., Cambridge, Mass. 02138.
RESULTS
The prediction equation is:
Heightl8 yr =30,09-1.58 Agemche+ 0,983 Heightmche(cm)
The standard error of estimate (SEE) is 1.9 cm (0.7
inch).
For example, a girl who has menarche at age 11 years,
at a height of 160 cm (63 inches), will be 170.0 • 1.9
cm (66.7 __-0.7 inches) tall as an adult, whereas she
would be only 163.7 ... 1.9 cm (64.2 ___0.7 inches) tall as

Table I. Height (mean and SD) at age 18 years with increasing age of menarche, and at all ages of
menarche, according to height (mean and SD) at menarche; categories of height are by rounded
standard deviations (6 cm) from the rounded mean at menarche

Menarche
Menarche ~ 12.9 yr Menarche ~ 13.0 yr all ages

Height Height at Height Height at Height Height

category Menarche 18 yr Menarche 18 yr 18 yr
(cm) No. (cm) (cm) No. (cm) (cm) No. (cm)

<~ 152.0 17 148.6 158.0 8 146.0 152.4 25 156.2

SD 3.6 3.8 5.0 5.7 5.1
152.1-158.0 32 155.1 163.6 26 155.1 160.6 58 162.2
SD 1.8 2.4 6.1 2.5 2.8
158.1-164.0 37 161.2 169.0 27 160.7 166.5 64 167.9
SD 1.5 2.4 1.6 2.0 2.6
>~ 164.1 9 165.9 175.6 25 167.9 173.6 34 174.1
SD 1.9 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.6
All subjects 95 157.4 165.8 86 159.7 165.5 181 165.6
SD 5.6 5.8 7.3 7.2 6.5

Vol. 85, No. 6, pp. 838-841

Volume 85 Prediction of adult height of girls 839
Number 6

174 1,50

173 151

172" 152

171 -" 155

170 - 154

169 - 155
168" 156

167- - 157

166 158

165" 159

164~ 160
AGE OF
165- MENARCHE 161

16z- (YEARS) 162

161 16 163
15 164
HEIGHT AT 160 14
PREDICTED
MENARCHE 159 ~ 16.'5 HEIGHT AT
13
(cm) 158~ 166 18 YEARS
12 (cm)
157 ~ II 167
I0 168
156 ~
155 169

154 t70

153
17i t
152 172

173
151
174
150 _+ONE
17.5 S.E.E.
149 ~
148- 176

1471 177

146- 178

145- 179

144- 180

14~ 181
Fig. 1. Nomogram for the prediction of height at age 18 years from age and height at menarche. Connect the height
at menarche and the age of menarche with a straight edge and read off the predicted height at 18 years from the
right hand height scale. Plus and minus one standard error of estimate (SEE), 1.9 cm, is drawn next to the predicted
height scale at 172 cm.
840 Fr&ch and Nagel The Journal of Pediatrics
December 1974

185 - - v I I I I I i I ' 1

18C
x
o

171
X

x / x'~

17C

HI8 oo
(cm) 165
xx

~' ~ e"

16C o ex a
o

15~ m

Age of
Menarche
yr. '
15C

14~
15.0

140

__L__ I I I I I I I 1
0 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180
HEIGHT (cm) AT MENARCHE
Fig. 2, Height at age 18 years (HI8) versus height at menarche of 181 girls according to their age at menarche:
(X),~<ll.9 years; (O), 12.0- 12.9 years; (e), 13.0- 13.9 years; and (~),~>14.0 years. Regression lines for HI8 on
height and age at menarche are shown for ages of menarche of 11.0, 13.0 and 15.0 years (see equation.)

an adult, if she had had menarche at age 15 years, at a
height of 160 cm.
The correlation coefficient (r) for height at age 18,
with age and height at menarche, is 0.956; 91% of the
variability in adult height in girls is therefore explained
by age and height at menarche.
Table I summarizes the heights at age 18 years ac-
cording to categories of height at menarche and age at
menarche for the 181 girls of the three growth studies
analyzed.
COMMENT
Our method may be useful as a prediction of adult
height in girls of exceptional shortness or tallness at
adolescence and does not require radiographs of the
hands and knees. It is also useful when young adoles-
cent girls are considering a career with a special height
requirement, such as ballet.6
The standard error of estimate of 1.9 cm (0.7 inch) of
our method is considerably lower than the error of 5 cm
(2.0 inch) reported from preliminary results of predic-
tion of adult height from an equation for age, height,
and bone age. 6
REFERENCES
1. Frisch RE, and Revelle R: The height and weight of
adolescent boys and girls at the time of peak velocity of
growth in height and weight: longitudinal data, Human
Biol 41:536, 1969.
2. Frisch, RE, and Revelle R: Height and weight at men-
Volume 85 Prediction of adult height of girls 841
Number 6

arche and a hypothesis of menarche, Arch Dis Child
46:695, 1971.
3, Tanner JM: Growth at adolescence, ed. 2, Oxford, 1962,
Blackweli Scientific Publieations, p. 27.
4. Frisch RE, Revelle R, and Cook S: Height, weight and age
at menarche and the "critical weight" hypothesis, Science
174:1148, 1971.
5. Frisch RE, and Revelle R: The height and weight of girls
and boys at the time of initiation of the adolescent growth
spurt in height and weight and the relationship to men-
arche, Human Biol. 43:140, 1971.
6. Tanner JM: Growing up, Sci Am 229:34, 1973.