An assessment of the impact of Rohingya crisis on economy

of Cox’s Bazar,Bangladesh

This report submitted to the Depertment of Geography and Environment under the faculty of
Earth and Science,Jagannath University,in partial fulfilment of the requirement degree for
Master of science(M.Sc)in Geography and Environment.

Submitted by

Niranjan Roy

M-170602005

Session: 2017-18

Department of Geography and Environment

Jagannath University
November 12,2019
 Acknowledgement

At first,I am praying my gratitude to the almighty of God,for the completion of the report work
would not have been possible.Then I would like to give my sincere admiration to reverend
Research Supervisor, Mohiuddin Mahi, Assistant Professor of Geography and
Environment,Jagannath University,under whose careful supervisions and guidance,continuous
cooperation,advice and suggestions this been conducted.His systematic sincere supervision and
guidance enabled me to complete this report work successfully.In fact,this whole act worked as
an inspiration in writting this report.I am indebted to him.It is indeed a great honor to thank my
to Kamrul Islam and Rasel Sharkar who also gave me valuable time and teqnical support to
complete this report.I wish to express my grattude to my friends,relatives,my familly,and the
people of Patabari Nolbaria,Phutkali,Taltola,South Polia Para villages.

Niranjan Roy

Acronyms
ADB Asian development Bank

ARSA Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army

ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations

BIPSS Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies

BBS Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

CPD Centre for Policy Dialogue

EU European Commission

Ecnec Executive Committee of the National Economic Council

FY Fiscal Year

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GoB Government of Bangladesh

HRW Human Rights Watch

ICJ International Court of Justice

ICC The International Criminal Court

IAWG Inter-Agency Working Group

ICG International Crisis Group

IRC International Rescue Committee

IPS Inter Press Service

IMF International Monetary Fund

IOM International Organization for Migration

ISCG Inter Sector Coordination Group

GDP Gross domestic product

MoU Memorandum of Understanding

MSF Medecins Sans Frontieres

NLD National League for Democracy

NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations

NRS Northern Rakhine State

NYT The New York Times

OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of

Humanitarian Affairs

OIC Organization of Islamic Cooperation

ppp Public private partnership

RRRC Office of the Refugee Relief and Repatriati

Commissioner

UN United Nations

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

UNDRIP United Nations Declaration on the Rights of

Indigenous People

UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

WHO World Health Organization

Abstract
The influx of Rohingya into Bangladesh had a terrible impact on economy of the communities of
Cox’s Bazar districts. With less than 0.31 per cent of the world’s population, Bangladesh now
hosts 4.7 per cent of its refugees and for that have a great negative impact on GDP .The emphasis
of the study to find out the impact of Rohingya influx on local economy of the host community
in Cox’s Bazar and also to assess the impact on GDP .For completion the study need primary and
secondary data .Rising prices, alongside falling wages of low-skilled workers, are adversely
affecting host populations. Furthermore it has also a great concern about longest sandy sea beach
and tourist safety. The aim of the study is to enable the local government, humanitarian agencies
and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to identify areas of support and strengthen existing
service provision for the local population.

List of Table Page number

1. Table 2.2: Impact on economy due to Rohingya influx________________

2. Table 2.2.b): Fear of security forces_______________________________

3. Table 2.6: Impact on communication______________________________

4. Table 2.8.a): Security concern___________________________________

5. Table 2.8.b): Decreasing the sea beach beauty_______________________

6. Table 2.8.c): Cheap prostitution__________________________________

7. Table 2.8.d): Infection of the disease______________________________

List of Figure Page Number

1. Figure 1.11: Research methodology_______________________________

2. Figure 1.12: Study area_________________________________________

3. Figure 2.1.a): Respondents age___________________________________

4. Figure 2.1.b): Gender___________________________________________

5. Figure 2.1.c): Respondents occupation_____________________________

6. Figure 2.1.d): Respondents education______________________________

7. Figure 2.1.e): Monthly income___________________________________

8. Figure 2.1.f): Monthly expenditure________________________________

9. Figure 2.3: Impact on daily necessary commodities___________________

10. Figure 2.4: Impact on fishing____________________________________

11. Figure 2.5.a): Impact on labour__________________________________

12. Figure 2.5.c): Shortage of work__________________________________

13. Figure 2.7: Impact on business___________________________________

14. Figure 3.1: GDP growth rate_____________________________________

15. Figure 3.1.a): GDP in Bangladesh_________________________________

Table of contents Page number

Certificate of approval ________________________________________

Acknowledgments ___________________________________________

Acronyms__________________________________________________

Abstract ___________________________________________________

List of table ________________________________________________

List of figure _______________________________________________

ChapterOne:Introduction _____________________________________

1.1 Introduction ____________________________________________

1.2 Research question_________________________________________

1.3 Objective _______________________________________________

1.4 Literature review_________________________________________

1.5 Research methodology____________________________________

1.6 Data Collection technique__________________________________

1.7 Data collection___________________________________________

1.8 Study design____________________________________________

1.9 Sample question size______________________________________

1.10 Analysis of data_________________________________________

1.1 Preparation of the report___________________________________

1.1 Study area______________________________________________

Chapter-Two : Economic impact on host community due to Rohingya influx

2.1 Demographic information_________________________________

a) Respondents age___________________________________
b) Gender__________________________________________
c) Occupation______________________________________
d) Education_______________________________________
e) Monthly Income and cost__________________________

2.2 Impact on economy due to Rohingya influx in Cox’s Bazar____

2.3 Impact on Dailly necessary commodities __________________

2.4 Impact on Fishing ____________________________________

2.5 Impact on employment ____________ __________________

a) Decrease labour cost_____________________________

b) Fear of sucurity force____________________________
c) Shortage of work_______________________________

2.6 Impact on community _______________________________

2.7 Impact on business__________________________________

2.8 Impact on tourism _________________________________

a) Security concern________________________________
b) Decrease the sea beach beauty_____________________
c) Cheap prostitution_______________________________
d) Infection of the disease___________________________

Chapter-Three: Cox’x Bazar economy and GDP____________

3.1 GDP of Bangladesh_________________________________

3.2 GDP of Chittagoan__________________________________

3.3 Analysis the GDP in Cox’s Bazar after Rohingya Influx____

Chapter-Four :Conclusions____________

4.1 Conclusion ________________________________________

References___________________________________________

Appendix-1:Photographs________________________________

Appendix-2:Questionnaire________________________________
 Chapter One:
Introduction

1.1 Introduction

Cox's Bazar is currently one of the poorest districts in Bangladesh, the situation has been
aggravated by the current Rohingya crisis which has highlighted the need to promote inclusive
growth in the district(R. Salim & E.Abu,2018). Cox’s Bazar, is a bordering district with
Myanmar and thesouth eastern district of Bangladesh within Chittagong division. The
Bangladesh-Myanmar land border is about 170 miles long.There are eight upazilas in Cox’s
Bazar. Of these upazilas,Rohingyas can be found in Cox’s Bazar Sadar, Ramu, Ukhia, and
Teknaf. Among this upazila the largest settlement is in Ukhia and has over 500,000
Rohingyapeople (BBS, 2011). Vas Dev (2002, p. 3) states that a host community is any
independent nation which by proactive choice or through incapability to act accepts asylum
seekers and permits them to reside on their land on short or long-term basis. According to the
Administration for Refugee and Return Affairs - Ethiopia (ARRA), host communities can be
welcoming of refugees and live in relative harmony, upholding the 9 rights of refugees and
sharing natural resources (ARRA 2011, p. 34). However, in some circumstances the host
population exhibits a negative response due to dissatisfaction with the impact of refugees on the
local economy, social and political life, and security and safety (Vas Dev 2002, p. 4). According
to Huang et al. (2018), Bangladesh received more refugees in just the first three weeks of the
influx (in August 2017) than all of Europe received in 2016 during the Syrian crisis. With less
than 0.31 per cent of the earth’s population, Bangladesh hosts 4.7 per cent of the world’s total
refugees. Grinvald (2010, p. 19) states that most refugees flee in search of safety, basic rights,
protection and support, and to secure their future. Many nations have signed the 1951 Refugee
Convention, which sets out the legal obligations of member countries to protect and provide
sanctuary to refugees (UNHCR 2018a). The local economy is mainly based on tourism and
hospitality, fishing, aquaculture, and small-scale agriculture (Lewis 2018). The population is
Bengali Muslim majority, with some Buddhists, Christians and Hindus, and with a relatively
small but diverse group of remote, indigenous ethnic communities. (Bangladesh Ethnobotany
Online Database n.d.) Bangladeshis conceptualise their self-identity by their religion, which is
the dominant influence on social structures, despite the ethnic diversity. In Cox’s Bazar, most of
the locals living in the hills areas are of Rakhain ethnic origin, one of at least 45 culturally
distinct indigenous communities, according to the World Bank (World Bank 2008). The total
District population of 2,655,000 (BBS 2016) nearly doubled since the 1990s, due at least in part
to the influx of Rohingya refugees, but it also grew because of internal migration in search of
work in the thriving tourist centre of Cox’s Bazar township.Overall Cox’s Bazar as a district
with comparable districts in the country in terms of its demographics and related indicators, such
as district gross domestic product (GDP), income per capita, incidence of poverty, structure of
employment, public expenditure, etc., using the pre-crisis situation as a benchmark to assess
post-crisis impact on public service delivery. For secondary data, we relied on national surveys
such as the Labour Force Surveys (LFS) of 2013 and 2016–2017 and the Household Income and
Expenditure Surveys (HIES) of 20109 and 2016.

1.2 Research Question

 What is the present economic condition of Cox’s Bazar?

 What is the performance on economy after Rohingyas influx?
 Is this part related with GDP?
1.3 Objectives

 to find out the impact of Rohingya influx on local economy of the host community
  to assess the impact on GDP
1.4 Literature Review

Bangladeshis a South Asian country that is remarkable by greenery and many waterways. In
South Asia, geographical location of Bangladesh is between 20°34' to 26°38' north latitude and
88°01' to 92°41' east longitude (BBS, 2011).

Cox’s Bazar, isa bordering district with Myanmar and thesouth eastern district of Bangladesh
within Chittagong division. The Bangladesh-Myanmar land border is about 170 miles long.There
are eight upazilas in Cox’s Bazar. Of these upazilas,Rohingyas can be found in Cox’s Bazar
Sadar, Ramu, Ukhia, and Teknaf. Among this upazila the largest settlement is in Ukhia and has
over 500,000 Rohingyapeople (BBS, 2011).

Bangladesh is the market based economy and one of the fastest growing economies country over
world. Cox's Bazar is one of the most beautiful and famous tourist spots in Bangladesh. The
major source of economy in tourism. Millions of external and internal visitors come to visit this
city every year. As a result, a large number of guest houses, hotels, and motels have been
constructedin the city and coastal region. Many human beings are involved in hospitality
and client provider oriented businesses (UNDP,2018).

People are also involved in fishing and collecting seafood and sea products for their livelihood.
Oysters, snails, pearls and their ornaments are very popular with tourists. Some people are
involved in the transportation business for tourists. Cox's Bazar is one of the few major spots for
aquaculture in Bangladesh. Besides a mix of small-scale agriculture, marine and inland fishing
and salt production are other industrial sources that play vital roles in
the national economy(Frontieres -Holland,2002)

Refugees are displaced people who seek asylum from these threats and have crossed a national
border into another country where they are protected by international law and eligible for
humanitarian aid (Jastram&Achiron 2001; Mohammad 2011; UNHCR 2018).

Most refugees flee in search of safety, basic rights, protection and support, and to secure their
future. Many nations have signed the 1951 Refugee Convention, which sets out the legal
obligations of member countries to protect and provide sanctuary to refugees (UNHCR 2018).

In Rakhine state in Myanmar, Rohingya term usually used to denote a community of muslim.The
rohingya people are stateless Indo-Aryan people from Rakhine, Myanmar. About 900000
rohingya refugees from Rakhine (chan, 2005).

Among many problematic issues surfacing in reformist Myanmar is a citizenship crisis with four
main dimensions. First, in a state with fragile civil liberties, skewed political rights and limited
social rights, there is a broad curtailment of citizenship. Second, Rohingya Muslims living
mainly in Rakhine State are denied citizenship, and other Muslims throughout the country are
increasingly affected by this denial. Third, designated ethnic minorities clustered in peripheral
areas face targeted restrictions of citizenship. Fourth, the dominant Bamar majority concentrated
in the national heartland tends to arrogate or appropriate citizenship (Holliday, I, 2014)

Myanmar had crossed the border into Bangladesh alone since middle 2018. Of them majority are
Muslim while a minority Hindu (Israt, 2014).

They have faced military crackdowns in different time like 1978, 1991-1992, 2012, 2015 and
2016-2018.United Nations (US) official and Human Right Watch (HRW) described the
Myanmar authority’s persecution on rohingya as the ethniccleaning (OHCHR, 2017).

The unkindness against the Rohingyas by the Myanmar Army has been termed as “ethnic
cleansing” by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR)
(OHCHR, 2017).

An estimated 1.1 million Rohingya people fled to Bangladesh from August 2017 Took shelter
mostly in Cox’s Bazaar district and some in Bandarban.Rohingya refugees are at least one third
of the host population in CXB.Rohingya refugees in Ukhiyaupazila is estimated about three
times the local population(UNDP,2018).

The exodus unfolded as one of the fastest-growing refugee crises in history.

Bangladesh acquired more refugees in just the first three weeks of the inflow (in August 2017)
than all of Europe received in 2016 during the Syrian crisis. With less than 0.31 per cent of the
earth’s population, Bangladesh hosts 4.7 per cent of the world’s total refugees(Huang et al.
2018).

The United Nations (UN) High Commissioner for Refugees reported that, more people are being
driven from their homes by torture and conflict than at any other time since the UN was
established(Edwards 2016; UNHCR 2015).

The Rohingya is an ethnic minority group in Myanmar. Being denied citizenship, thousands of
Rohingyas have crossed into Bangladesh, putting unbalanced, humanity less pressure on its
scarce resources. While most studies explain why and how insecurity produces refugees, the
opposite process that how refugees produce can be conflict, dilemma, and insecurity in their host
country is also very worthy of study (Utpala, 2010). Overall Cox’s Bazar as a district with
comparable districts in the country in terms of its demographics and related indicators, such as
district gross domestic product (GDP), income per capita, incidence of poverty, structure of
employment, public expenditure, etc., using the pre-crisis situation as a benchmark to assess
post-crisis impact on public service delivery. For secondary data, we relied on national surveys
such as the Labour Force Surveys (LFS) of 2013 and 2016–2017 and the Household Income and
Expenditure Surveys (HIES) of 20109 and 2016.
The only significant report - Rohingya refugee crisis: impact on Bangladeshi politics and thereby
published after beginning of the latest Rohingyainflux into Bangladesh in August 2017,
illustrates political and economic impact of Rohingya refugees on Bangladesh (IffatIdris, 2017).

1.5 Research methodology

To assess the impact on economy of Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh after Rohingya crisis, we will use
both quantitative and qualitative tools to gather data and information.

1.6 Data Collection Technique

Quantitative data collection with 416,000 Cox’s Bazar households, a 3% margin of error and
95% confidence level – the minimum number of households will be surveyed is estimated to be
160.Our survey will cover within 150 respondents. Questionnaire survey will be completed by
systematic random sampling. We will conduct qualitative data collection through focus group
discussions (FGDs). In terms of secondary sources, we will use economic census 2013.To assess
the impact on GDP through Rohingya crisis will be used BBS methodology.

1.7 Data Collection

To fulfil the objective of the study, data and information were needed. Primary field observation
run through the questionnaires or FGD (Focus group discussion).This questionnaires are open or
closed and answered by local people. Primary data for this study was collected from the
questionnaires. Secondary data might be a research paper, newspaper, text book information,
articles, journals or various websites etc. For the building of profile, and other texts we use
secondary data.

1.8 Study Design

This study was combination questionnaire survey, quantitative and qualitative research. This
research is based on both primary and secondary data. For primary data questionnaire survey is
carefully design and conduct with the host community to fulfill the objective. Secondary data
will be collected from different annual reports, articles, literature journals etc.

1.9 Sample Question Size

To complete the report, data were collected from 150 host community respondents. That data are
host communities personal and their community related150 host communities individually
shared their personal information. The information are their family, age, religion, occupational
information, economic activities etc.

1.10 Analysis of data

Finally a report has prepared with sequential chapters where all gathers information and data
have presented in text, chart, pie and graphical forms. After fulfillment of supervisor guideline,
the report had submitted to the supervisor.

1.11 Analysis of data

Figure1.11: Research Methodology

1.12 Study area

Cox's Bazar Sadar Upazila’s area is about 228.23 sq. k. This city situated in between 21°24' and
21°36' north latitudes and in between 91°59' and 92°08' east longitudes (BBS.2011).

Figure 1.12: study area

Authour prepare 2019
 Chapter Two:
Economic impact on host community due to Rohingya
influx

2.1 Demographic information

 a) Respondents age
Figure2.1.a): Respondents age

Age
40 34.7 36.6
28.4
30
20
10
0.3
0
18-20 20-30 30-40 >40 Total

Age Percent

Field survey 2019

Most of the respondents age group are about >40 because of our objectives purpose.Most of
them are involving in any kind of economic activity(fg2.1.a).

b) Gender

Figure2.1.b): Gender

Gender
female
13%

male
87%

Field survey 2019

In Bangladesh,Most of the male people (too much) are involved in economic activity of
differents sectors.

c) Respondents Occupation
 Figure2.1.c) Respondents Occupation

Respondents Occupation
26.67 20 18.67
16.67 10 8

Field survey 2019

Our survey area mostly in Cox’s Bazar tourist reigion.For that reason most of the respondents are
involved in tourism related economic activity such as CNG driver,small shop businessman
etc(2.1.c)

d) Respondents Education

Figure2.1.d):Respondents education

Education Percent
45 41.3
40
35 32.2
30 25
25
20
15
10
5 1.6
0
Illiterate Primary(one-five Lower secondary(six-eight Secondary(nine-ten

Education Percent

Field survey 2019

Cox’s Bazar is a city on southeast coast of Bangladesh,known as its sandy longest sea
beach.Most of the population are illiterate because of child labour.That’s why most of the
people dropped out in early age(Figure2.1.d).

e) Monthly Income
Figure2.1.e) :Monthly income
 Monthly Income

20%
27% 10000-15000
15000-20000
20000-30000
30000 +

33% 20%

Field survey 2019

Most of the respondents are doing tourism related work.Their monthly income is avarage 23,000
BDT.

Monthly expenditure

Figure2.1.f): Monthly Expenditure

Monthly expenditure
10%
20% 8000-12000
12000-15000
15000-20000
20000+
35%

35%

Field survey 2019

After analysis the demographic information,most of the respondents are illitarete and CNG
driver.Monthly avarage income is about 20000-22000 tk and their age group mainly 30-40 years.

2.2 Impact on economy due to Rohingya influx in Cox’s Bazar

Table 2.2 Impact on economy due to Rohingya influx

 Basic types of economic Impact percentage of agreed
respondents
Dailly essential commodities 94.7%
Price hike 96%
Transfer problem of local agriculture manufacturer products 19.3%
Others 18%
Field survey 2019

The impact of economy of Cox’s Bazar due to Rohingya influx mainly focus on dailly essential
commodities and its price hike.Vegetable’s price,cloths ect are now high price in local area of
Cox’s Bazar.

2.3 Impact on dailly necessery commodities

Figure 2.3 : Impact on dailly necessery commodities

Impact on dailly nessesery commodities

140
120
Rice
100 Lentile
tk(per kg)

80 Oil
60 Cloths
40
20
0
2016 2017 2018 2019

Field survey 2019

Cloths is a most important issue in this study.The price of cloths is increasing

rapidlly.Rice,Oil,Lentile etc. are as avarage market price because of organization relief.

2.4 Impact on fishing

In Cox’s Bazar district, an estimated 18% of rural farm households earn their livelihood through
fishing using a trawler or a boat. The fish collected from this district is distributed across the
country as well as internationally. Many farm households also depend on collecting shrimp eggs
near the coast for their livelihood. The fish collected in Cox’s Bazar is of high economic value
and unique because of the district’s geographical location, characterized by channels such as
Kutubdia and Maheshkhali. Notably, the salt water of the area is appropriate for the cultivation
of various types of fish. More employment opportunities in addition to increased exports of fish
are possible if special attention is given to development of the fish industry in Cox’s Bazar.
 Figure 2.4 : Impact on fishing

Impact on Fishing

Others
29%

Increase due to Rohingya’s influx

57%
Decrease due to Rohingya’s influx
15%

Field survey 2019

2.5 Impact on employement

a)Impact on labour cost

Figure 2.5 a) :Impact on labour

Impact on labour cost

8%

92%

Field survey 2019

Most of the respondents hampared in day wage due to Rohingya influx (fig 2.5 a).

b) Fear of sucurity forces

Table 2.2 b) :Fear of sucurity forces

 Value percentages
Sucure 12%
Insecure 88%
total 100%
Field survey 2019

Most of the people in Cox’s Bazar are in insecure because of security force such as
Army,Police,BGB ect and their have individuals law and restrictions harmpared the local
economy(fig 2.2 b).

c) Shortage of work

Figure 2.5 c):Shortage of work

Shortage of work
25%

75%

Field survey 2019

Cox’s Bazar is now a terrible area for local community on the basis of employement.Most of the
day labour can not get their proper day wage because of Rohingya’s low day wage.For that the
local economy has harmpared(fig 2.5.c).

2.6 Impact on communication

Table 2.6 :Impact on communication

Basic types of communication problems percentage of agreed

respondents
Internet Connection 93%
Develop rural road transport 90%
Increase road accident 39%
Field survey 2019

Most of the area’s have limited access of internet in mid night.Increase road accident in recent
year.

2.7 Impact on business

Figure 2.7 : Impact on business
 Impact on Business sector
35000
30000 tea stall
25000 vegetable market
20000 Middle class and high class
15000 business
10000
5000
0
2016 2017 2018 2019

Field survey 2019

Local market have a tremandous effect due to Rohingya influx.Change the market price about all
over dailly necessary commodities.Most beneficial group are middle class and high class
businessman(fig 2.7).

2.8 Tourism

With the longest sandy sea beach in the world, the city of Cox’s Bazar has the potential to
become one of the world’s greatest tourism centres. In addition, there are many archaeological
sites in the area, which could attract a large volume of tourists. The growth of hotels, motels, and
restaurants in the district in recent years has been spectacular. However, infrastructural facilities
and improved communication system are yet to be developed to the required level to foster the
district’s potential to become a tourism hub. Cox’s Bazar would see significant development if
50% of the National Tourism Policy of 2010 could be implemented. Special incentives could
further foster tourism’s performance. The development of a local tourism bureau could also
promote development of the sector and help promote the area nationally and globally.

a)Security Concern

Table 2.8 a) : Security concern

Value percentages
Tourist insecurity 53%
Tourist security 47%
total 100%
Field survey 2019

At the present situation, tourist in Cox’s Bazar is diminishing because of insecurity(table 2.8 a)

b)Decreasing the beauty of sea beach

Table 2.8 b): Decreasing the sea beach beauty

 Value percentages
yes 26%
no 74%
total 100%
Field survey 2019

Suddenly rise of population in Cox’s Bazar hampared in sea beach beauty.

c) Cheap prostitution
Table 2.8 c):Cheap prostitution

Value percentages
Positive impact on tourism 61%
Negative impact on tourism 39%
total 100%
Field survey 2019

Cheap prostitution hampared in tourism sector mostly in cox’s bazar economy(table 2.8.c).

d) Infection of the disease

Table 2.8 d) :Infection of the disease

Value percentages
Infection of the disease 44%
No 56%
total 100%
Field survey 2019

Unconsciousness about health of Rohingya’s people increase infection of disease in Cox’s bazar
area(table 2.8.d).
 Chapter Three:
The economy and GDP condition after Rohingya
influx

3.1 GDP of bangladesh

Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency.
Aggregates are based on constant 2010 U.S. dollars(WB 2018). GDP is the sum of gross value
added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies
not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for
depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. An
economy's growth is measured by the change in the volume of its output or in the real incomes of
its residents Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local
currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2010 U.S. dollars. GDP is the sum of gross value
added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies
not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for
depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources.GDP
Growth Rate in Bangladesh is expected to be 7.20 percent by the end of this quarter year 2019-
20 economic year, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts
expectations(BBS 2017). In the long-term, the Bangladesh GDP Growth Rate is projected to
trend around 6.80 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models

Figure 3.1 :GDP growth rate

GDP Growth rate of Bangladesh

9
8
7
6
5
4
GDP rate

3
2
1
0
0 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10
-2 - - - - - - - 0 0 0
1 9 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 -2 -2 -2
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 11 10 09
20 20 20

Source:World Bank

The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Bangladesh was last recorded at 1203.20 US dollars in
2018. The GDP per Capita in Bangladesh is equivalent to 10 percent of the world's average.
GDP per capita in Bangladesh averaged 522.13 USD from 1960 until 2018, reaching an all time
high of 1203.20 USD in 2018 and a record low of 322.30 USD in 1972(WB 2018).

Figure3.1.a): GDP in Bangladesh

3.2 GDP in Chittagoan

A substantial share of Bangladesh's national GDP is attributed to Chittagong. The City generated
approximately $25.5 billion in nominal (2014) and US$67.03 billion in PPP terms converted
from nominal GDP of $25.5 Billion dollars with a nominal vs. PPP factor of 2.629 contributing
around 12% of the nation's economy(WB 2018). Chittagong holds the status of being the second
largest economy in Bangladesh, only behind Dhaka Division. The economy of Chittagong is
largely based on textile and garment industry. Chittagong Division consists of eleven districts,
including Chittagong District and Comilla District. A substantial chunk of Chittagong Division's
GDP is attributed to Chittagong District (contributing around 12% of Bangladesh's GDP). In
recent years, Chittagong has been in the process of establishing a large shipbuilding and defense
industry.More than 60% of the country's revenue earnings come from Chittagong. Chittagong's
per capita income is $5,719; highest in the country and poverty rate and unemployment rate is
lowest; reported 4% and 4.70% in 2018(BBS). Chittagong is the largest province of Bangladesh
in terms of size and second largest in population. Chittagong has the best standard of living
among all Bangladeshi Divisions. As of 2018, annual GNP growth of Chittagong is
6.3%.Inflation increased to 5.8% from 5.4%.Cox’s Bazar posted a GDP growth rate of
7.9% in FY18, and is expected to achieve 7.5% GDP growth in FY19, according to a
report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).ADB announced the projection, releasing
an update to its Outlook-2018 report at the Cox’s Bazar Resident Mission conference
room in Chittagoan.The GDP growth rate achieved in FY18 is the highest for Cox’s
Bazar since 1974, the report said.The 7.9% GDP growth is also slightly higher than the
government’s estimate for FY18, which was 7.86%. The estimate was presented before
a meeting of the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (Ecnec) on
September 18. However, the report also said the service sector underperformed in
FY18, with slower growth in transport, as well as in financial, education, and health
services. Furthermore, the country’s supply of money decreased from 10.9% to
9.2%.Meanwhile, inflation increased to 5.8% from 5.4%.The agriculture sector grew by
4.2% in FY18, while the industrial sector grew by 12.1%. About the FY18-19 budget
targets, the ADB said revenue is projected to grow by 30.8% and spending by 25.1%,
with current spending 29.8% higher, mostly to pay out higher interest, subsidies,
incentives, and current transfers. otal expenditures in the fiscal year are slated to equal
18.3% of GDP, up from 16.5% a year earlier.  At the program, ADB also presented the
current state of implementation of a $100 million grant for an emergency assistance
project for Cox's Bazar's Rohingya community.The grant was used effectively, then the
donors would be asked for another $100 million grant for the displaced Rohingya
community(WB-2018).

3.3 Analysis the GDP in Cox’s Bazar after Rohingya Influx

We calculate Cox’s Bazar’s GDP based on two sources. The first is a preliminary version of
labour force data for Cox’s Bazar, which was provided through stakeholder interviews this
dataset provides the sectorial disaggregation. The data is used in conjunction with data from the
2017-18 Bangladesh Labour Force Survey (BBS, 2017) to calculate labour data from a sub-
region (Cox’s Bazar in this case) compared with data from the national level to assess how
concentrated sectors of the economy are within a given region.10% increase in exports of fishing
from Cox’s Bazar would increase the output of the fishing by 1.37% and total gross output by
0.41%. The GDP of Cox’s Bazar would increase by 0.44% and household income would
increase by 0.45%.10% increase in investment in the manufacturing sector in Cox’s Bazar would
increase the output of the manufacturing by 0.37% and total gross output by 0.06%. The GDP of
Cox’s Bazar would increase by 0.02% and household income would increase by 0.02%. 10%
increase in investment in the construction sector in Cox’s Bazar would increase the output of the
construction by 9.86% and total gross output by 4.53%. The GDP of Cox’s Bazar would increase
by 4.58% and household income would increase by 4.42%.A 10% increase in demand for mining
from the rest of Bangladesh would increase the output of the mining by 7.44% and total gross
output by 0.71%. The GDP of Cox’s Bazar would increase by 0.75% and household income
would increase by 0.74%.10% increase in the exports of services (tourism) from Cox’s Bazar
would increase the output of the services by 0.67% and total gross output by 0.18%. The GDP of
Cox’s Bazar would increase by 0.23% and household income would increase by 0.24%.10%
increase in demand for hotels and restaurants from the rest of Bangladesh would increase the
output of the hotels and restaurants by 3.18% and total gross output by 0.19%. The GDP of
Cox’s Bazar would increase by 0.18% and household income would increase by 0.19%.10%
increase in the in the demand of forestry from the rest of Bangladesh would increase the output
of the forestry by 7.44% and total gross output by 2.06%. The GDP of Cox’s Bazar would
increase by 2.03% and household’s income would increase by 2.06%. Total employment in
Cox’s Bazar would increase by around 149452 out of which 3147 would be of trade and 445
would be of manufacturing. A 10% increase in the export of crops from Cox’s Bazar would
increase the output of the crops by 0.34% and total gross output by 0.07%. The GDP of Cox’s
Bazar would increase by 0.06% and household’s income would increase by 0.07%. Total
employment in Cox’s Bazar would increase by around 387 out of which 230 would be of crops.
10% increase in the export of transport services from Cox’s Bazar would increase the output of
the transport services by 0.39% and total gross output by 0.08%. The GDP of Cox’s Bazar would
increase by 0.09% and household’s income would increase by 0.09%. Total employment in
Cox’s Bazar would increase by around 304 out of which 96 would be of transport services.10%
increase in the in the demand for livestock from the rest of Bangladesh would increase the output
of the livestock by 0.28% and total gross output by 0.03%. The GDP of Cox’s Bazar would
increase by 0.03% and household’s income would increase by 0.03%. Total employment in
Cox’s Bazar would increase by around 172 out of which 78 would be of livestock. 10% increase
in the export of manufacturing from Cox’s Bazar would increase the output of the manufacturing
by 0.11% and total gross output by 0.02%. The GDP of Cox’s Bazar would increase by 0.01%
and household’s income would increase by 0.01%. Total employment in Cox’s Bazar would
increase by around 64 out of which 41 would be of manufacturing. During last two years is
decrease inchmeal because of Rohingya influx. Total GDP in Cox’s Bazar decrease .002% last
(2017-2019) fiscal year.
 Chapter four:
Conclusion

4. Conclusion

The Rohingya crisis has deeply affected the livelihoods of host communities in Cox’s Bazar
district, particularly those who live in Teknaf and Ukhiya upazilas in Cox’s Bazar. The influx
has placed on the host community an astonishing compulsion, which is mixed by the fact that
these areas of Bangladesh were already confronted with terrible challenges associated with the
weak socio-economic development.This study argues that the host community has experienced
serious negative consequences, such as increased competition for employment; price hikes for
daily essentials; decreased daily income; high transport costs; environmental degradation;
exposure to disease; and refugee involvement in criminal activities. Tourism has declined
leaving many locals without jobs. The limited availability of medical care and dirty and
overcrowded Rohingya camps, particularly after the post-August 2017 influx, are of great
concern to the local community. The probability of spreading transmittable diseases is seen as a
grave threat to the health of the local population because of interactions with the Rohingya.
Rohingya generate a large amount of waste and poor toilet systems in the camps have adverse
effects on the environment and health of the local population. Impacts on the host community
have been particularly related to price changes and a fall in daily wages for labourers. The
impact on wages is likely to increase as Rohingya’s participation in the labour market rises.
There have also been extremely adverse impacts on communication and the sea beach
environment, among others. However, given today’s realities, it is now the wisest course to
consider a medium-term framework to help host communities, as it is likely that repatriation will
take several years. Cox’s Bazar’s GDP based on two sources. The first is a preliminary version
of labour force data for Cox’s Bazar, which was provided through stakeholder interviews this
dataset provides the sectoral disaggregation. During last two years is decrease inchmeal because
of Rohingya influx. Total GDP in Cox’s Bazar decrease .002% last (2017-2019) fiscal year. This
study suggests that the Rohingya influx can in fact represent an opportunity to address the issues
that have hampered economic development in Cox’s Bazar for many years issues that have
placed them among lagging district in the country. While confronting the adverse impacts noted
in this report, concerted efforts can be undertaken to transform the two districts. In this way, it
will be possible not only to address the negative impacts of the refugee influx but also to put the
two districts on an upward development trajectory based on the situation pre-influx. This can
only be positive not just for the host communities but also for the Rohingya.

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