IM2/4/12Hon

Research Proposal
Jonathon DiPietro
Intern/ Mentor II
2020-2021
1st Marking Period

False Party Alignment’s Effect on Pre-election Polling

Introduction and Overview:

Pre-election predictive polling has a significant role in our electoral process. False part alignment stems
from the long-lasting party switch throughout United States political history and problems with
identifying with developing party platforms and ideologies. This project will analyze how pre-election
polling is conducted, what affects the data, and ultimately explain how false-party alignment affects
pre-election polling.

Background and Rationale:

False part alignment stems from the long-lasting party switch throughout United States political history.
Due to problems identifying with developing party platforms and ideologies, Americans have had
difficulties remaining in a singular political party. Along with the trend of remaining in your original
party​1​, even if you advance your ideology. Throughout modern history, there has been a significant
development in election predictive polling, that comes from technological advancements in the era. As
technology and voter-predictive algorithms advance, so do answers about the party alignments effect on
polling.

Confidence in pre-election polling has a substantive impact on political efficacy. There is a significant
population of eligible voters that decide their electoral participation off of pre-election predictive
canvassing. Polling also has an impact on the campaign strategy of candidates, which can swing election
results if incorrect. It is very important that American are confident in both the electoral system, and
pre-election polling.

Research Methodology:
Research Question:
How does false party alignment (DINO and RINO) affect predictive pre-election polling (media
predictions, academic predictions, private polling, and campaign polling)?

Research Hypothesis:
False party alignment can result in over expected voter-turnout and incorrect partisan swings. These
problems can result in some incorrect election projections, but most credible pollsters keep these variables
in account while conducting election polling.

1
The political party that you first register with
 IM2/4/12Hon
Research Proposal
Jonathon DiPietro
Intern/ Mentor II
2020-2021
1st Marking Period

Research Design Model:

I will be usuing an essay as my form of design model because it is the most consise and cleaar
way to present the findings. This essay will promarily explain how pre-eection polling are
conducted, and how party affiliation has an effect.

Data Collection:
Data collection for this project will primarily consist of information regarding registration of
party affiliation, public loyalty to thier regestered party, and amount of interation people within
he party have wih poll collectors.

Project Objectives:
The goal of this project is to collect and analysie trends in pre-election predictive polling, and
corolate an reason on why specific data coudld have large skale inacuracies. One explanation of
possible problems with polling is thhe existance of faithless voters- or misalignmed voters. My
porject will explain these trends in an academic non-partisian way, ato build confidence in
polling systems.

Logistical Considerations:
By focusing on an issue that is very present, yet torn in the political divide, it will be difficult to find
sources that address the topic in a non-partisan way, and therefore most data and resources may contain
bias. Nonetheless, this research can be completed in an unbiased and academic manner due to access to
comparative data from several sources and the United States Government. When citing sources I will
acknowledge any political leaning that it possesses. The only other limitation that this topic poses is that
there is a limit on how much previous research has been conducted about the topic. In order to answer my
research question, I will have to utilize various works and relate them to the overall topic.