Insights
December 2020
Are airlines ready to
transport COVID-19
vaccines?
by AviaPro’s Head of Aviation Consulting,
Kevin Clarke
As the world waits with anticipation for a
COVID-19 vaccine to be approved and made
available to the public, airlines are only
starting to grapple with the major logistical
challenge of distributing it worldwide.
The vaccine must be stored at freezing
temperatures to maintain its efficacy,
and storage temperature varies by
manufacturer. For example, the Moderna
vaccine must be kept at -20 °C, while
Pfizer’s product must be stored at a
frigid -70 °C. These kinds of temperature
requirements mean airlines have an
unprecedented challenge ahead of them.
To maintain -70 °C, special containers filled
with dry ice must be used. However, as
dry ice sublimates over time, it displaces
precious breathable air in the cabin. Flights
are therefore limited as to how much dry ice
they can have on board.
Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, cargo has continued to play an essential role in
ensuring global supply chains. For example, Air France KLM Martinair Cargo has carried out
approximately 6,000 cargo-only flights to more than 100 long-haul destinations.
(photo: KLM)
Industry reports from AviaPro Consulting’s aviation experts
A recent survey by an air cargo association
and a drug shippers’ group found only
vaccine to be distributed. According to
IATA, “providing a single dose to 7.8 billion
15 % of industry participants felt ready to people would fill 8,000 B747 cargo aircraft.”
transport goods near the -70 °C required
by the Pfizer vaccine, while about 60 % of
respondents felt they could meet Moderna’s
less stringent -20 °C requirement.
Some carriers are beginning to rise
to the challenge
Korean Air has already signed contracts
with five cold-storage shipping container
suppliers, and is in talks with others still,
according to a Korean Air spokesperson.
Air France KLM have said they will soon
be conducting a trial flight with dummy
vaccine vials, to test one brand of the cold
storage containers they use. According
to Air France KLM’s Senior Vice President
Sales & Distribution, GertJan Roelands,
More typically, a flight of an average-sized
“in order to be fully prepared for this we
aircraft might carry up to 100,000 doses of
started a COVID-19 Vaccine taskforce four
vaccine. That’s 78,000 flights to deliver one
months ago. This taskforce represents all
dose to every person on Earth. When one
the relevant Air France KLM Martinair Cargo
considers that some vaccines will require
departments. Our teams have been working
two doses per person, that’s a lot of flights
on an extensive action plan.”
indeed. Of course, road transport will
In addition to the challenge of temperature, account for a portion of the distribution,
there is the issue of the huge volumes of but the logistical challenge for air carriers
remains daunting.
Keep up with our blog
for regular insights on
the world of aviation
AviaPro’s team of consultants
offer up key insights to help
industry professionals steer
their business through the
COVID-19 pandemic.
Get in touch
+1 (647) 255-8887
info@aviaproconsulting.ca
www.aviaproconsulting.ca
Travel advisories:
here’s what you need
to know
by AviaPro’s Head of Industrial Services,
Jorge Abando
The US Department of State provides a
Traveler’s Checklist with the following
reminders: Get informed, referring to
your destination and being prepared for
the unexpected; Get required documents,
which can include health check documents,
in addition to passport and visas; Get
enrolled in their Smart Traveler Enrollment
Program (STEP), to receive security and
emergency alerts; and Get insured, for
medical, evacuation, and other unexpected
expenses. As would be typical for any
country’s travel advisory, these types
of reminders would be similar across
the globe; and now with the addition of
heath check documents required for pre
check-in procedures and/or a signed heath
declaration for arrivals, the industry has
adapted to manage passenger health
information, a process that may even
continue in a post-COVID world.
Back in June 2020, the European
Commission launched ‘Re-open EU’, with
an online platform that contains essential
information about traveling safely across
Europe. It provides information on
borders, available means of transport,
travel restrictions, public health and safety
measures, and other practical information
for travelers.
Most countries across Europe have
deployed mobile COVID contact tracing
applications which can be voluntarily
installed and used to warn users if they
have been in the proximity of a person
who is reported to have tested positive for
coronavirus. As the situation regarding
COVID can change fast, so too must the
response by EU member states.
To help travelers plan, EU countries have
agreed on a coordinated approach in
response to COVID. This includes a colour
code for the classifications of regions -
green, orange, yellow and grey - based on
COVID-19 positivity test rates. There is also
agreement on common criteria that should
apply when deciding whether to introduce
travel restrictions, such as testing and self-
quarantine, a common one for travelers
from “red areas.” It is up to Member States
to decide what measures to apply on people
traveling from risk areas to their territories;
and those measures will be equally applied
to returning nationals of the Member State
concerned.
However, there are exceptions to those
travelers with an essential function or need.
A list of these types of travelers is also on
the ‘Re-open EU’ website.
‘Travel Bubbles’ in Asia
In Asia, there was speculation back in May
about the formation of ‘travel bubbles’
based on governments able to contain their
countries’ COVID outbreaks, so that they
could begin opening air travel to each other.
Reported by CNN Travel, this concept was
deemed a possible way to get international
travelers flying again. Unfortunately
these bubbles, also called air corridors,
have yet to materialize in Asia largely due
to new waves of COVID-19, which have led
governments to back off from the idea of
loosening travel resrictions.
Also problematic for implementing
travel bubbles are the various levels of
restrictions by each state. Australia,
for example, has banned citizens from
traveling abroad for leisure tourism, and
passenger inflow is capped to only 4,000
per week. On the opposite end, Thailand’s
government announced a special 90-day
long-stay visa for international tourists.
Any hotel can accommodate these special
tourists, provided they are approved by the
Ministry of Public Health.
When it comes to opening borders,
Singapore has been leading the way in
Southeast Asia by establishing Air Travel
Passes, which vary depending on the
traveler’s country of origin. One example
for travelers coming to Singapore from
Australia is that the Air Travel Pass holder
must have been in Australia for the last
14 consecutive days before departing for
Singapore and travel to Singapore must
be via direct flight -- this in addition to
undergoing a COVID-19 polymerase chain
reaction (PCR) test at the airport upon
arrival in Singapore, plus other public
health measures to abide by. For travel to
Vietnam, 5 to 7 days quarantine upon arrival
is required, while Hong Kong officials are
still exploring possible travel corridors with
Asian countries that have close economic
and tourism ties and where the epidemic
has stabilized. As for Japan, the country
has only just started allowing re-entry to
some foreign residents.
2
Rethinking travel requirements

In the Middle East, the following list

of countries have started accepting
international tourists, with health-
related entry requirements, of course.
Bahrain officially reopened for tourism
in September 2020, with PCR testing of
all passengers required at the airport
upon arrival. Each passenger must bear
the cost and agree to quarantine while
waiting for results. Egypt has been open
for international tourism since July 2020.
Travelers coming to any part of Egypt must
prove negative for COVID-19, where the
A nearly empty flight from PEK to LAX in March 2020, just before travel restrictions were at
test was performed no more than 72 hours
their strictest. (photo: Mx. Granger, CC0)
before arriving, if coming from a higher-risk
nation, otherwise 96 hours.
have a PCR test performed at the airport visit, bring a negative PCR test no older than
Jordan has reopened its borders for and remain isolated until the results come 96 hours, sign the health declaration form
international tourism since September in, with another test performed after 72 and agree to thermal scanning on arrival.
2020; and its government has formed a list hours. Turkey reopened for tourism back As long as travelers are asymptomatic and
of ‘green countries’ that will first be allowed in June 2020, with no mandatory tests or they follow the above entry requirements,
to travel to the country for the purposes of quarantines; however, tourists are required there will be no testing on arrival and no
tourism. Yellow and red lists have also been to wear a face mask during the inbound quarantine needed to visit Dubai.
issued, each with separate rules. Lebanon flight to Turkey, as well as in the airport.
Any tourist not wearing a mask will be These global examples represent current
has been open for tourism since July 2020.
denied entry; and travelers must agree to a conditions, which of course can change
Travelers are divided into 2 categories for
health screening and temperature check. at any time. So, depending on where your
entry; the ‘first category’ includes travelers
travels take you, and to paraphrase the US
coming from countries where PCR testing
In the UAE, Dubai officially reopened its State Department traveler’s checklist, we
is available and therefore will have to
borders for international tourism back in advise the following four simple steps: Get
bring a negative PCR test with them, and
July 2020; however, visitors will have to informed, Get the required documents, Get
the second category includes travelers
download the Dubai health app, have proof access to alerts, and Get insurance.
coming from countries where PCR testing
of health insurance for the duration of their
is not yet available and therefore they will

Year-on-year change of weekly flight frequency of global airlines from

January 6 to November 23, 2020, by country
25%

0%
Year-on-year change

-25%

-50%

-75%

-100%
20 20

3 0
17 20
ar 020

6, 0

0 0
r 1 20

r 2 20

1 20

2 20

8 0
22 20

l 6 0
l 2 20

3 0
17 20

30 20

14 20

28 20

2, 0

6, 0
ov 020

3, 0
0
2

ar 202

ar 202

Ju 202

Ju 02

ct 202

ct 202

ov 202

02
Ja , 20

Fe 20

Ap , 20

Ap , 20

Ju , 20

Ju 20

Au 20

0
Fe , 2

, 2

M 7, 2

M 1, 2

, 2

Au , 2

Au , 2

Se , 2

Se , 2

2
,

5,

,
0,

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6

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3
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2
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2
n

p
Ja

ay

ay
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Week starting on

Global Spain Hong Kong Germany Singapore Italy France United Kingdom
Australia Sweden United Arab Emirates South Korea United States India China
Japan

Source Additional Information:

OAG Schedules Analyser Worldwide; week of January 6 to November 23, 2020
© Statista 2020

3
How do you enter
new markets despite
the COVID-19 crisis ?
by Predictive Mobility’s Managing Partner,
Christophe Ritter
During IATA’s summer season 2020, in an
aviation market plagued by lock-down
and travel restrictions, more than 25 new
routes were launched each and every day.
It represents a significant drop versus
2019, but who would have expected that
some airlines have decided to launch a new
destination in the midst of the COVID-19
pandemic?
Using Predictive Mobility’s Aviation Market
Database, we’ve identified three key
strategic objectives that these airlines
wanted to achieve, and we’ll suggest a
practical analytical grid to implement on
your flight network. The initial objective
airlines wanted to achieve by starting a new
route was to operate on a monopolistic
destination. With the yield dropping on
their trunk routes, a result of efforts to
both stimulate the demand and match their
competitors’ pricing, the challenge was to
limit the losses by finding niche markets
with limited or no competition. Even if the
weekly operations were limited, the focus
was on the net margin each passenger would
bring to the company. In 2020, airlines are
losing an average of $66 USD per passenger
boarded according to IATA, and finding
high yield routes generating a positive
contribution to the airline’s balance sheet is
of paramount importance.
The second underlying reason for launching
a new destination is structural, and was
somewhat already implemented by some
airlines, especially low-cost carriers (LCCs).
It is called network agility. Focusing on the
bi-seasonal flight schedule, Summer and
Winter, with few adjustments, is something
from the past. The “new normal” is to work
on your route network not twice but rather 4
to 5 times a year, with more differentiation
of your schedule during an IATA season.
The rationale is to both help fight the lower
yield trend by looking at pockets of revenue
opportunities during the peak summer or
around some key vacations, and to respond
more quickly to underperforming markets.
LCCs are very agile and often stop operating
routes that do not perform after 2 months to
look for replacements, rather than carrying
the burden of an unprofitable market over a
full IATA season.
Another development that will also mark the
way companies will work on their network
is the idea of the destination portfolio.
Airlines are focusing on segmenting their
destinations around some key categories
such as pure leisure sea and sun, diaspora,
business regional, etc. As a result of the
pandemic crisis, the objective was to focus
not only on the most resilient types of
clientele, but also to have destinations with a
positive price elasticity of demand, therefore
being able to fill up the seats despite a
limited sale period. For example, in Europe,
a regional subsidiary of Lufthansa Group, Air
Dolomiti, flew 1 million more seats during the
summer 2020 versus the year above to serve
the high yield regional business market in
Germany and Europe. Similarly, LCCs were
quick to start multiple new summer holiday
routes to meet the demand of frustrated
locked down urban residents wanting to see
a brighter horizon after weeks stuck in their
neighborhood.
These three insights will remain relevant
until the aviation sector’s recovery and
should constitute the base of your strategic
actions. Your first objective should be
to implement and segment your current
destinations on a yield and load factor
matrix. The low-yield high-volume routes
and high-yield low-volume destinations
are the most important ones from a route
development perspective. Why? Because
these are the markets which are the most
dynamic, and if effectively managed
should drive a positive net margin, with the
medium-term objective to become your
high-yield high-traffic destination. But to be
in this position, it means focusing on your
margin, being agile on your network, and
having a portfolio strategy. This will be the
way you will turn the COVID-19 crisis into an
opportunity to enter new markets and rapidly
reconstitute your cash flow position, and
ultimately get your company balance sheet
back in the black.
4
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A very warm welcome to our new Operations and Safety Expert
AviaPro welcomes Capt. Walid Nazzal to
its roster of specialist consultants.
Capt. Nazzal has 45 years of experience
in the aviation industry. He’s worked as
a pilot, manager, and a trainer. He’s also
a leading expert in Aviation Security
(AVSEC), Human Factors & Crew Re-
source Management (CRM), Instructional
Techniques, Training of Trainers (ToT)
& Safety Management System (SMS).
In 2008, he earned an MBA in Aviation
Management from the Maastricht School
of Management in Holland.

To get in touch, click here. As Royal Jordanian’s former Head of Operations, Capt. Nazzal
supervised and participated in the airline’s IOSA certification and
implementation.

As 2020 comes to an end...

There is no denying that the aviation sector has felt the consequences of the
COVID-19 pandemic very severely. The industry has become synonymous with
disruption and transformation, and our resiliency has been put to the test.

And yet it’s also been a time of growth, and a time for finding solutions. As a network
of aviation professionals that spans the globe, our firm is committed to helping our
clients achieve lasting success through partnership .

It’s blue skies ahead.

On behalf of all of us at AviaPro Consulting,

we wish you a safe holiday season and best wishes for 2021.