𝐴𝑡 = 𝑙𝑡 + 𝑏𝑡 𝑠𝑡 + 𝜀𝑡

alfa
beta
gama

a 97.32
b 2.17 m=4 trimestres

ANO TRIMESTRE (Xt)

nº (indice) (x)VENDAS (Yt) MMCt (y) 𝑠𝑡 𝑙𝑡
-3
-2
-1
97.32
T1 1 72 101.00527
T2 2 116 104.92268
2007
T3 3 136 105.63 1.29 1.2939391 1.2940513 106.39586
T4 4 96 107.13 0.90 0.9014286 0.9015067 107.43052
T1 5 77 109.25 0.70 0.7057143 0.7057754 109.12863
T2 6 123 111.13 1.11 1.0985714 1.0986666 111.51166
2008
T3 7 146 112.25 1.30 3.9996534 4 113.11959
T4 8 101 113.75 0.89 113.20049
T1 9 81 116.25 0.70 114.52274
T2 10 131 118.75 1.10 117.80586
2009
T3 11 158 120.50 1.31 121.26503
T4 12 109 122.38 0.89 122.18525
T1 13 87 124.63 0.70 123.58636
T2 14 140 127.13 1.10 126.54661
2010
T3 15 167 129.38 1.29 128.96981
T4 16 120 131.13 0.92 132.39882
T1 17 94 133.25 0.71 134.02974
T2 18 147 135.50 1.08 134.79626
2011
T3 19 177 137.50 1.29 136.59227
T4 20 128 140.38 0.91 140.48979
T1 21 102 144.00 0.71 144.01963
T2 22 162 146.50 1.11 147.33999
2012
T3 23 191 147.75 1.29 148.78979
T4 24 134 149.25 0.90 149.63726
T1 25 106 151.38 0.70 150.6067
T2 26 170 153.50 1.11 153.59545
2013
T3 27 200 155.63 1.29 155.02444
2013

T4 28 142 157.63 0.90 157.23114

T1 29 115 160.75 0.72 161.45506
T2 30 177 163.88 1.08 162.48833
2014
T3 31 218 166.90174
T4 32 149 167.22494

7.9993068 8

VENDAS (Yt)
250

200

150

100

50

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
𝐴𝑡 = 𝑙𝑡 + 𝑏𝑡 𝑠𝑡 + 𝜀𝑡

0.6
0.5
0.7

𝑏𝑡
0.7057754
1.0986666
1.2940513
2.17 0.9015067
2.9276355 0.7057754
3.4225221 1.0986666
2.4478517 1.2940513
1.7412565 0.9015067
1.7196803 0.7057754
2.0513547 1.0986666
1.8296425 1.2940513
0.9552738 0.9015067
1.1387593 0.7057754
2.2109433 1.0986666
2.8350532 1.2940513
1.8776391 0.9015067
1.6393733 0.7057754
2.2998106 1.0986666
2.3615079 1.2940513
2.8952603 0.9015067
2.2630868 0.7057754
1.5148042 1.0986666
1.6554083 1.2940513
2.7764625 0.9015067
3.1531542 0.7057754
3.2367563 1.0986666
2.3432758 1.2940513
1.5953722 0.9015067
1.282408 0.7057754
2.1355803 1.0986666
1.7822852 1.2940513
1.9944921 0.9015067
3.1092058 0.7057754
2.0712382 1.0986666
3.2423233 1.2940513
1.7827632 0.9015067