Lecture 1 - PRM 19 Sep 20

Lecture 1 – Introduction (19 Sep 20)
Project Risk Management
MS (PM)
Scheme
3
 Introduction:
 Instructor
 Course Participants / Scholars
 Course objectives & outlines
 Rules of Business and expectations

 Where does PRM fit into overall PM
 Basic Risk related terminologies
Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

Instructor Class Course
Introduction
4
Bilal Atiq
Commander (PN)
Work Experience: Pakistan Navy – 30 years

Bahria University – 2 years
Academic Qualifications: MS (Project Management)

Masters (Naval War Studies)
MBA (Executive)
Certifications: PMP & RMP from PMI
Email: batiq5@hotmail.com
Mobile No.: 0321-2061201

Introduction
• Name
• Highest Qualification & Institute
• Present Org & Occupation
• Any practical experience of working on Risk
Management activities
• Expectations from the Course
• Current CGPA
• Any other point / suggestion

Instructor Class Course
Introduction
6
Course Name Project Risk Management (PRM)

Contact Hours 48
Credit Hours/Value Three
Fundamentals of Project Management
Course Pre-requisites
Project Cost & Time Management
Quarter/Year Fall – 2020

Course Objectives Reference Material Course Outline
Course Objectives
7
 To equip course participants with a comprehensive understanding of the

concepts, processes, tools and techniques used in the area of Project Risk
Management through an interactive teaching method
 To acquaint the participants with the integrated use of risk concepts, processes,
tools and techniques in the overall project management framework
 To highlight the importance of a structured approach towards risk management

in successful completion of a project
 To encourage the participants to practically implement their acquired

knowledge of project management at their workplaces and in tasks of daily life

Course Objectives
8
 To promote the use of systematic and structured approaches towards managing

projects by highlighting its importance and efficacy and therefore, serve the
project management community and the profession
 To assist the participants in the preparation of the PMP certification
examination in the area of Project Risk Management

Reference Material
9
Title Author Edition

A Guide to PMBOK PMI, USA 6th Edition
Practice Standard for Project Risk Management PMI, USA 2009 Edition
Loosemore, M. Raftery, J.
Risk Management in Projects 2nd Edition
Reilly, C. Higgon
Managing Risks in Construction Projects Smith, N.J 1st Edition
Risk Management in Project Organizations Edwards, P.J. & Bowen, P.A. 1st Edition
Project Management: A System Approach to
Kerzner, Harold 1st Edition
Planning, Scheduling and Controlling
PMP Exam Prep RITA Mulcahy’s 9th Edition
Risk Management AS/NZS 4360 -
Course Outline
10
Session Topics
1 • Introduction
• Rules and Expectations
(Introduction) • Where does PRM fit into overall PM
• Basic terminologies
• The context of risk
• Project Risk Management Framework
2 • Uncertainty in risk dimensions
• Iterations in PRM
(Project Risk Management) • Scalability and tailoring conditions
• Considerations for Agile/Adaptive environments
• Trends and emerging practices in PRM
• Risk management processes overview

Course Outline
11
Session Topics
• Where to apply PRM
• Critical success factors for PRM
3
• PRM and communication
• Roles and responsibilities
(Project Risk Management)
• Using Risk Management outputs
• Risk Management Processes
• WBS & WBS reporting levels
• CPM, Three-Point Estimates & PERT
• Types of estimates
4
• Project Cost Management & Budgeting process
• Establishing schedule and cost baselines
(Understanding uncertainty in
• Elements of contract baseline
Scheduling & Costing)
• Understanding uncertainty through a Case Study
• Quiz 1

Course Outline
12
Session Topics
• When to start Risk Management Planning
5 • Cost of Risk Management
• Repetition of Activities
(Plan Risk Management) • Categories of Success Criteria
• Inputs, Tools & Techniques, Outputs
• Objectives of Identify Risk
• How many risks to be identified?
• Some points of caution
6 • Identifying and responding risks
• Early, Iterative & Emergent identifications
(Identify Risks) • Risks linked to project objectives
• What needs to be collected at this stage?
• Who has the insight into risks?
• Defining risks

Course Outline
13
Session Topics
7 • Inputs, Tools & Techniques, Outputs
(Identify Risks) • Assignment/Class Activity/Case Study /Presentation
• Assessment of risk
• Application and usage of Qualitative Risk Analysis
• Critical success factors for the process
• Iteration of perform Qualitative Analysis
8
• Risk characteristics
• Data collection
(Perform Qualitative Risk
• Categorizing risks based on objectives, Source of risk and
Analysis)
effect on overall project
• Dependency of risks on each other
• Quiz 2
Course Outline
14
Session Topics
9
• Prioritizing risks using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process)
(Perform Qualitative Risk
Analysis)
• Objective of Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
10
• Some important considerations
(Perform Quantitative Risk • Probability distributions, modeling and simulation
Analysis) • Probabilistic analysis of project and assessing probability
• Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA)
11 • Assessing Impact – (Expected Utility (EU), Expected
Monetary Value (EMV), Monte Carlo simulation,
(Perform Quantitative Risk Premium/contingency sums, Sensitivity analysis)
Analysis) • Assessing Duration
• Assignment/Class Activity/Presentation
Course Outline
15
Session Topics
12
(Perform Quantitative Risk • Inputs, Tools & Techniques, Outputs
Analysis)
• Objective of Plan Risk Responses
• Allocation of resources and insertion of activities
13 • Secondary and Residual risks
• Considerations of selecting a risk response
(Plan Risk Responses) • Critical success factors for Plan Risk Responses
• Plan risk response flow chart
• A common problem with PRM
14
• A word of caution for project managers
(Implement Risk Responses)
• Quiz 3
Course Outline
16
Session Topics
• Objectives of monitor risk
• Risk trigger conditions
15 • Risk reassessment
• Project closure and risk register
(Monitor Risks) • Critical success factors for monitor risk
• Risk governance
16 • Summing up the Project Risk Management Knowledge
(Project Risk Management) Area
Final Exams

Grading Policy Classroom Conduct Academic Honesty
Grading Policy
17
Instrument Marks
Quizzes 5+5+5 = 15
Assignments/Class Activity/ Case study
5+10 = 15
/Presentation
Mid-Term 30
Final exam 40

Classroom Conduct
Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI Courtesy: Mr Tabjeel Ashraf slides
Classroom Conduct
19
 A decent conduct, based on mutual respect, honesty and truthfulness
 Please avoid any action that may cause disturbance during the lecture
 Entering late in the class

 Unnecessarily leaving the class
 Talking to other scholars/students
 Use of mobile phones
 Active class participation
 Free-riding behavior in the group assignments/tasks will be taken seriously.
 Read reference material ,research papers and relevant books.

Academic Honesty
20
 All academic work submitted for assessment shall be original and a product of
one’s/group’s own effort; any dishonest work shall be rejected for assessment or for
any recognition or award.
 Cheating shall mean using or attempting to use unauthorized material, information,

study aids, or another person’s work in any academic exercise. example:
 Copying from assignments of other scholars.

 Receiving unauthorized help on an assignment, particularly on an individual assignment.
 Asking a scholar who has taken a test or examination to leak question paper or its contents.
 Copying from another scholar during a test or exam with or without that scholar’s
consent/information.
 Using unauthorized material to complete an assignment.
 Asking a proxy to take a test or exam, or submit an assignment.
Academic Honesty
21
 Misuse shall mean unauthorized use or utilization of any academic privilege with
respect to library books, notes/slides shared by the teacher, question papers,
intellectual property, answer sheets etc.
 Forgery shall mean an act to imitate or counterfeit documents or signatures.
 Plagiarism shall mean representing intellectual or creative work of someone else,

as one's own, either knowingly or unknowingly, or due to negligence.
 Using work, in whole or in part, which was done by someone else?

 Paraphrasing or copying material from a written source, including the Internet,
without quotation marks, footnoting or referencing it.

Academic Honesty
22
 Facilitating Academic Misconduct shall mean helping or attempting to help

another scholar/student commit an act of academic misconduct.
 Writing or providing all or part of, a paper, essay, problem set, computer
program, or any other assignment, for another scholar/student.
 Helping someone else cheat during a test or exam, and extend
solicited/unsolicited help in any other way.
 Taking a test or examination as a proxy for someone.
 Attending classes, or calling present during roll call, as a proxy for someone.

Academic Honesty
23
 Academic Dishonesty shall mean lack of truthfulness or sincerity on academic

matters when interacting with the faculty member regarding an academic exercise.
 Lying to the instructor in an attempt to explain an incident of academic misconduct.

 Lying to the instructor or using a false or forged excuse in order to get an extension
on a due date.
 Submitting a written summary about a required out-of-class event that the
scholar/student did not attend.
 Changing, altering, attempting to change or alter, or assisting another in changing or
altering any grade or other academic record, including grades or records contained
in a grade book or computer file, that is received for or in any way attributed to
academic work.

Attendance Policy Retake Policy Special Needs
Attendance Policy
24
 It shall be mandatory for scholars to attend at least 75% of the Total Contact
Hours in a Subject/Course of Study, failing which they will not be allowed to sit
in the final examination.
 The 25% relaxation in attendance is to cater for unforeseen situations like

sickness, bereavement in family, law and order situation, untoward incident.
 Attendance shall be taken randomly during the class.
 Attendance may be marked for 1, 2 or 3 hours depending upon the time a

scholar enters or leaves the class.

Retake Policy
25
 Retakes shall be allowed to scholars/students only in situations of self-

hospitalization or bereavement in the immediate family (parents, grandparents,
siblings, spouse and children).
 The same shall apply to class quizzes, assignments, presentations and other
graded activities.
 Scholars, who are unable to appear in the graded activities on the scheduled
dates, shall email their requests explaining the reasons of not attending the quiz
on scheduled dates.
 Retakes of ONLY THE DESERVING CASES will be arranged subject to

management approval
Special Needs
26
 Scholars/Students with special educational needs are entitled to special

provisions, including extra attention, time and/or any possible arrangements.
 Please, inform the course instructor about your specific requirements within
first week of the commencement of the course.
 Make all communication / coordination through CR

Example 1
27
 A project manager was working on a hardware/ software installation in an area

where hurricanes are a relatively frequent occurrence when a hurricane struck
 Not long after the hurricane was over, the project manager was telling people
what a great job his team had done and how quickly they had recovered from
the disaster. Would you have been proud of yourself if you were the project
manager?
Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP

Example 1
28
 Before you answer, consider the following information:

 The activity the team was working on required three days to complete.
 The project manager had warning that the hurricane was coming.
 They had to recover from the disaster.

Example 1
29
 Instead of being excited about how quickly team was able to recover from the
hurricane, the project manager and the sponsor should have questioned the
wisdom of scheduling the implementation at a time when there was a strong
probability of a hurricane coming
 A project manager's work should not focus on dealing with problems; it should
focus on preventing them

Where does PRM fit into overall PM?
30
Bilal Atiq PMP

& RMP PMI
Basic Terminologies: Risk Project Risk Dimensions of Risk
Risk
31
Risk
32

Project Risk
33

Dimensions of Project Risk

34
 The risk definition includes two key dimensions of risk:
 The uncertainty dimension may be termed as “probability”.
 The effect may be called as “impact”.
 Though other descriptions are possible, such as “likelihood” and

“consequence”.


35
 Probability indicates the element of uncertainty.
 This uncertainty may exist:
 In its chance of occurrence (what are the chances that a risk will
occur). And/Or
 In the intensity/severity of its effect. And/Or
 In which objectives it will effect.


36
 The impact may be positive or negative.
 Positive risk is called as opportunity.
 Negative risk is called as threat.
 Only those risks will be considered as project risks that have some
impact on at least one of the project objectives.


37

38
“Time is the scarcest resource and unless it is managed

nothing else can be managed.” ~ Peter Drucker

Lecture 1 - PRM 19 Sep 20

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Lecture 1 – Introduction (19 Sep 20)

Project Risk Management

 Course objectives & outlines

 Rules of Business and expectations

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

Work Experience: Pakistan Navy – 30 years

Academic Qualifications: MS (Project Management)

Certifications: PMP & RMP from PMI

Mobile No.: 0321-2061201

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

Course Name Project Risk Management (PRM)

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

 To equip course participants with a comprehensive understanding of the

 To highlight the importance of a structured approach towards risk management

 To encourage the participants to practically implement their acquired

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

 To promote the use of systematic and structured approaches towards managing

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

Title Author Edition

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

 A decent conduct, based on mutual respect, honesty and truthfulness

 Entering late in the class

 Free-riding behavior in the group assignments/tasks will be taken seriously.

 Read reference material ,research papers and relevant books.

 Cheating shall mean using or attempting to use unauthorized material, information,

 Copying from assignments of other scholars.

 Forgery shall mean an act to imitate or counterfeit documents or signatures.

 Plagiarism shall mean representing intellectual or creative work of someone else,

 Using work, in whole or in part, which was done by someone else?

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

 Facilitating Academic Misconduct shall mean helping or attempting to help

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

 Academic Dishonesty shall mean lack of truthfulness or sincerity on academic

 Lying to the instructor in an attempt to explain an incident of academic misconduct.

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

 The 25% relaxation in attendance is to cater for unforeseen situations like

 Attendance shall be taken randomly during the class.

 Attendance may be marked for 1, 2 or 3 hours depending upon the time a

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

 Retakes shall be allowed to scholars/students only in situations of self-

 Retakes of ONLY THE DESERVING CASES will be arranged subject to

 Scholars/Students with special educational needs are entitled to special

 Make all communication / coordination through CR

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

 A project manager was working on a hardware/ software installation in an area

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP

 Before you answer, consider the following information:

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

Bilal Atiq PMP

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

Dimensions of Project Risk

 The risk definition includes two key dimensions of risk:

 The uncertainty dimension may be termed as “probability”.

 The effect may be called as “impact”.

 Though other descriptions are possible, such as “likelihood” and

Bilal Atiq PMP & RMP PMI

Dimensions of Project Risk