1 DISCRETE AND CONTINOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Required Readings
Anderson, David, Dennis J. Sweeney & Thomas A. Williams (2011): Statistics for Business
and Economics, 9th edition, CENGAGE Learning.

Venkatesh, Seshamani & Ndhlovu Obrien (2016): Statistical Methods for Economic Analysis,
Printech Ltd.

Spiegel, Murray, John Schiller & R. Alu Srinivasan (2012): Probability and Statistics, 4th
edition, Schaum’s outline series, McGraw-Hill.

Spiegel, Murray, & Stephens J. Larry (2008): Theory and Problems of Statistics, 4th edition,
Schaum’s outline series, McGraw-Hill.

1.1 Unit introduction

Welcome to Unit 3 Discrete and Continuous Probability Distribution.

In this unit, you will be introduced to the concept of random variables and the
different types of special discrete and continuous probability distributions as well as
their practical applications.

1.2 Unit Aim

This unit aims to familiarize you with discrete and continuous probability distributions.

1.3 Unit learning outcomes

By the time you finish working through this unit, you should be able to;

1. Distinguish discrete random variables from continuous random variables.

2. Be able to calculate and apply discrete and continuous probability distributions
3. Understand the application of special discrete and continuous probability distributions.

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 1.4 Contents list

1. Discrete probability distributions - Binomial, Poisson, Hypergeometric, Geometric, Negative

Binomial
2. Continuous probability distributions - normal, exponential, uniform, gamma, weibull

1.5 Time required

You must be done with this unit in three weeks.

1.6 Random variable

To appreciate and understand the concept of discrete and continuous probability distributions,
it is important to first define and discuss random variables.

Random variables can be defined as a numerical description of the outcome of an experiment.

Thus random variables associate numerical values with each possible experimental outcome.
Random variables can either be discrete or continuous depending on the numerical values the
random variable assumes.

1.6.1 Discrete random variables

This is a random variable that can assume either a countable number of values or an infinite
sequence of values. In the finite case, the assumed countable values terminate e.g
{1,2,3, … ,20}. In the countable infinite case, the list of values continues infinitely e.g
{1,2,3, … . }.

Examples of discrete random variables

1. Number of students in ECN 2331

2. Number of days in a week
3. Number of visitors to your room at dinner
We can conclude that discrete random variables observations are mostly counts.

1.6.2 Continuous random variables

This is a random variable that may assume any numerical value in an interval or collection of
intervals. Examples of continuous random variables include:

1. Weight, 𝑥 > 0
2. Amount of rainfall, 𝑥 ≥ 0
3. Distance covered
4. The length of time between visitors to your room, 0 < 𝑡 < ∞

2
In conclusion, 𝑋 is a continuous random variable if 𝑥 may assume values in some interval

𝑎 < 𝑥 < 𝑏, where 𝑎 and 𝑏 are between −∞ and ∞ respectively.

1.6.3 Summary
A random variable 𝑋 whose values are obtained by

1. Counting------------discrete random variable

2. Measuring----------continuous random variable
1.7 Discrete probability distributions
A complete description of a random variable requires that we specify possible values that a
random variable can assume and their associate d probabilities. This describes how the
probabilities are distributed over the values of the random variable. The probability
distribution function (pdf) for a discrete random variable is defined by a probability function
denoted by 𝑓(𝑥). 𝑓(𝑥) provides the probability for each discrete random variable. 𝑓(𝑥) can
also be denoted as:

𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = 𝑓𝑥 (𝑥) = 𝑃(𝑥) for 𝑥 = 𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , … , 𝑥𝑛

1.7.1 Theorem: required conditions for a discrete probability function

A function 𝑓(𝑥) is a discrete pdf if for any countable infinite set of real number 𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , … , the
following holds:

1) 𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ) = 𝑃(𝑥𝑖 ) ≥ 0 ∀𝑖
2) ∑∞
𝑖=1 𝑃(𝑥𝑖 ) = 1

The collection of pairs (𝑥𝑖 , 𝑃(𝑥𝑖 )) 𝑖 = 1,2, … is sometimes referred to as probability

distribution of 𝑋.

Example

Recall the experiment of tossing a coin twice. Find the probability distribution.

Solution

Recall that 𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇}. Let the random variable 𝑋 be the number of heads
observed in the coin tossing experiment. Therefore, the random variable 𝑋 can take the
following values:

3
 𝑥 = 0,1,2

We know that: 𝑛(𝑆) = 4, 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥), therefore

1
𝑥 = 0, 𝐴 = {𝑇𝑇} and 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = 4

2 1
𝑥 = 1, 𝐵 = {𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻} and 𝑃(𝑋 = 1) = 4 = 2

1
𝑥 = 2, 𝐶 = {𝐻𝐻} and 𝑃(𝑋 = 2) = 4

Then the probability distribution of the random variable 𝑋 is:

𝑥 0 1 2

𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) 0.25 0.5 0.25

Note: The proof of above pdf is;

1) 𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ) > 0
2) ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑃(𝑥𝑖 ) = 0.25 + 0.5 + 0.25 = 1
1.7.2 Cumulative distribution function (CDF)
Let 𝑋 be a random variable. The CDF or distribution function of a random variable 𝑋 denoted
by 𝐹 is defined as:

𝐹(𝑋) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥) for all real 𝑥 and 𝐹(𝑋) = ∑𝑥𝑖=1 𝑃(𝑥𝑖 )

Note:

For a discrete random variable, 𝑃(𝑎 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝑏) = 𝐹(𝑏) − 𝐹(𝑎).

Example

Recall the pdf of tossing a coin twice

𝑥 0 1 2
𝑓(𝑥) 1 1 1
4 2 4
The CDF is given by
𝑥

𝐹(𝑋) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥) = ∑ 𝑃(𝑥𝑖 )

𝑖=1

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 0, 𝑥<0
1
,0 ≤ 𝑥 < 1
𝐹(𝑋) = 4
3
,1 < 𝑥 ≤ 2
2
{ 1, 𝑥≥2

Formal definition of CDF

A function 𝐹(𝑥) is a distribution function (CDF) for some random variable 𝑋 if the following
holds:

1) 𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑥→−∞ 𝐹(𝑋) = 0
2) 𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑥→∞ 𝐹(𝑋) = 1
3) If 𝑎 < 𝑏, then 𝐹(𝑎) ≤ 𝐹(𝑏)
4) 𝑙𝑖𝑚0<ℎ→0 𝐹(𝑥 + ℎ) = 𝐹(𝑥)

→ ℎ←
0<ℎ 0<ℎ→0

1.7.2.1 Graphical representation of CDF

It is represented by a stair-case situation

𝐹(𝑥)

1.8 Special discrete distributions

The following are the discrete distributions

1) Binomial distribution
2) Geometric distribution
3) Negative binomial distribution
4) Hypergeometric distribution

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 5) Poisson distribution
1.8.1 Binomial Probability Distribution
This is associated with a multiple-step experiment. The following are the properties of a
binomial experiment:

1) The experiment consists of a sequence of n identical trials

2) Two outcomes are possible on each trial. These outcomes will be referred to as
success and failure.
3) The probability of success, denoted by 𝑝, does not change from trial to trial.
Consequently, the probability of failure, denoted by 1 − 𝑝, does not change from trial
to trial.
4) The trials are independent
Note: if properties 2,3 and 4 are present, we have what we call a Bernoulli
experiment/distribution denoted by

𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)1−𝑥 , 𝑥 = 0,1 and 0 ≤ 𝑝 ≤ 1.

However, if all the properties are present, we have a Binomial distribution. Thus if we have n
independent trials, with each trial resulting into a success or failure with probability 𝑝 and
(1 − 𝑝) respectively. Then the total number of successes 𝑥 is a Binomial random variable
with parameters n and 𝑝.

Formal definition

A random variable is said to have a Binomial distribution if the discrete probability

distribution function of 𝑋 is given by

𝑛
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑥 , 𝑥 = 0,1,2, … , 𝑛 where 𝑝 = probability of a success on a
𝑥
sample trial, 1 − 𝑝 = probability of a failure on a single trial, 𝑛 =number of independent
trials, 𝑥 = number of successes in 𝑛 trials, and

𝑛!
(𝑛𝑥) = 𝑥!(𝑛−𝑥)! is a combination.

Note the following;

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 1) The Binomial distribution reduces to a Bernoulli distribution when 𝑛 = 1.
2) The Binomial distribution is the sum of n independent Bernoulli random variables
3) The probability of success is fixed for each trial
4) Each trial is independent
5) The number of trials is fixed.

Example

Assume a fair coin is tossed 3 times. What is the probability of getting two heads?

Solution

Number of trials: 𝑛 = 3, 𝑋=number of heads observed, 𝑝=probability of success in each trial.

Therefore

1
𝑋~𝐵(𝑛, 𝑝) where 𝑛 = 3 and 𝑝 = 2

We seek the following:

𝑛
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑥 , 𝑥 = 0,1,2, … , 𝑛
𝑥

Therefore, for two heads 𝑥 = 2. This implies

3 1 2 1 3−2
𝑃(𝑋 = 2) = ( ) ( ) ( )
2 2 2

3! 1 2 1
= ( ) .
2! (3 − 2)! 2 2

3
=
8

Example

The probability that a defective pen is drawn from a box of pens is 0.1. If a sample of 6 pens
is taken, find the probability that it will contain:

i) No defectives pens
ii) 5 or 6 defective pens
iii) Atmost 1 defective
iv) At least 1 defective

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Solution

Let 𝑋 =number of defective pens and therefore 𝑋~𝐵(𝑛, 𝑝), with 𝑛 = 6 and 𝑝 = 0.1. Recall
that:

𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = (𝑛𝑥)𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑥 , 𝑥 = 0,1,2, … , 𝑛.

i) No defectives implies 𝑥 = 0 hence

𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = (60)0.20 (1 − 0.1)6−0 = 0.531441
ii) 5 or 6
𝑃(𝑋 = 5) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 6)
(65)(0.1)5 (0.9)1 + (66)(0.1)6 (0.9)0
= 0.000054 + 0.000001
= 0.000055

iii) At-most 1 means 𝑥 ≤ 1 and hence 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 1) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 1)

6 6
= ( ) (0.1)0 (0.9)6 + ( ) (0.1)(0.9)5
0 1
= 0.531441 + 0.354294
= 0.885735
iv) At least 1means that 𝑋 ≥ 1 and therefore
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 < 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = 1 − 0.531441 = 0.468559

1.8.2 POISSON DISTRIBUTION

The Poisson distribution is a probability distribution that is useful in describing or estimating
the number of events that will occur in a specified period of time or in a specific area. In
other words, the Poisson distribution is useful in estimating the number of occurrences over a
specified interval of time or space.

Examples for which the Poisson distribution offers a good model include (or the random
variable of interest is):

1) The number of death claims received per day by an insurance company

2) Number of arrivals at a car wash in one hour
3) The number of traffic accidents per month on a busy junction

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 4) The number of second year Economics students dropping out from the programme
during the course of the year
5) The number of leaks in 100 miles of a pipeline
Note that if the following properties are met/satisfied, the number of occurrences is a random
variable described by the Poisson probability distribution.

1.8.2.1 Properties of a Poisson experiment

1) The probability of occurrence is the same for any two intervals of equal length
2) The occurrence or nonoccurrence in any interval is independent of the occurrence or
nonoccurrence in any other interval.
FORMAL DEFINITION

A random variable 𝑋 is said to have a Poisson distribution if the discrete probability

distribution is given by

𝜆𝑥 𝑒 −𝜆
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = , 𝑥 = 0,1,2, …
𝑥!

OR

(𝜆𝑡)𝑥 𝑒 −𝜆𝑡
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = , 𝑥 = 0,1,2, …
𝑥!

That is 𝑋~𝑃𝑂𝐼(𝜆) where 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = 𝑓(𝑥) = the probability of 𝑥 occurrences in interval,

𝜆 =expected value or mean number of occurrences in an interval, 𝑒 =2.71828 and
𝑡 =number of intervals or periods.

Note that the number of occurrences(𝑥) under a Poisson distribution has no upper bound/limit
i.e it is a discrete random variable that may assume an infinite number of values (𝑥 =
0,1,2,3, …)

Example

The average number of days an EC student will be absent for ECN 2331 class is 5 days per
month. Find the probability that a student will be absent for

1) 4 days in a month
2) 4 and 6 days in two and three months respectively.

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Solution

Note that the length of time is fixed and there is a counting process. Let 𝑋 =number of days a
student is absent. Then

𝑋~𝑃𝑂𝐼(𝜆)

(𝜆𝑡)𝑥 𝑒 −𝜆𝑡
1. With 𝜆=5, 𝑥 = 4, 𝑡 = 1, 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = , 𝑥 = 0,1,2, …
𝑥!
(5∗1)4 𝑒 −5
Therefore, 𝑃(𝑋 = 4) = = 0.175467369
4!

(5∗2)4 𝑒 −10
2. For 𝑥 = 4, 𝑡 = 2, 𝑃(𝑋 = 4) = = 0.018916637
4!
(5∗3)6 𝑒 −15
For 𝑥 = 6, 𝑡 = 3, 𝑃(𝑋 = 6) = = 0.00483947
6!

Therefore, the final solution is; 𝑃(𝑋 = 4) ∗ 𝑃(𝑋 = 6) = 0.0189 ∗ 0.0048 = 0.00009072

1.8.2.2 Theorem
If 𝑋~𝐵(𝑛, 𝑝) with 𝑥 = 0,1,2,3, … , 𝑛 with 𝑝 → 0( i.e probability of successes is near 0) as
𝑛 → ∞ ( i.e is large), and 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝑛𝑝 = 𝜆 then

𝑛 (𝜆𝑡)𝑥 𝑒 −𝜆𝑡
lim ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥 ≈
𝑛→∞ 𝑥 𝑥!

1.8.3 Hypergeometric probability distribution

This distribution is closely related to the Binomial probability distribution. However, the vital
difference between these two distributions is that unlike under the Binomial distribution,
trials under the hypergeometric distribution are not independent and consequently the
probability of success changes from trial to trial.

Let 𝑟 denote the number of elements in a finite population of size 𝑁 labelled as “success” and
𝑁 − 𝑟 denote the number of elements in the population that are labelled “failure”. Suppose
we select a random sample of size 𝑛 without replacement. Then a hypergeometric probability
distribution function is used to estimate the probability that in a random sample of 𝑛
elements, selected without replacement, we will obtain 𝑥 elements labelled “success” and
𝑛 − 𝑥 elements labelled “failure”.

Therefore, the above statement entails that we obtain 𝑥 successes from the 𝑟 successes in the
population and 𝑛 − 𝑥 failures from the 𝑁 − 𝑟 failures.

FORMAL DEFINITION

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A random variable 𝑋 is said to have a hypergeometric distribution if:

(𝑥𝑟 )(𝑁−𝑟
𝑛−𝑥
)
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) =
(𝑁𝑛)

Where 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = 𝑓(𝑥) =probability of 𝑥 successes in 𝑛 trials

𝑛 = number of trials

𝑁 = number of elements in the population

𝑟 = number of elements in the population labelled success

(𝑥𝑟 ), (𝑁−𝑟
𝑛−𝑥
) and (𝑁𝑛) represent combinations.

i.e (𝑥𝑟 ) =number of ways that 𝑥 successes can be selected from a total of 𝑟 successes.

(𝑁−𝑟
𝑛−𝑥
) = number of ways that 𝑛 − 𝑥 failures can be selected from a total of 𝑁 − 𝑛 failures in
the population.

(𝑁𝑛) = number of ways a sample of size 𝑛 can be selected from a population of size 𝑁.

Example 1

Suppose a population consists of 10 items, four of which are classified as defective and six of
which are classified as non-defective. What is the probability that a random sample of size
three will contain two defective items?

Solution

Let defective item(𝑋) =”success”

𝑁 = 10 → population

𝑟 = 4 → defective items in the population

𝑛 = 3 →sample size

𝑥 = 2 →number of defective items in the sample

(𝑥𝑟 )(𝑁−𝑟
𝑛−𝑥
)
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) =
(𝑁𝑛)

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 4! 6!
(42)(61)
(2! 2!) (
1! 5!
)
= 10 =
(3) 10!
(3! 7!)

36
= = 0.30
120

Example 2

A population of size 100 is known to be 5% defective. A random sample of size 10 items is

selected without replacement. Find the probability that none of these selected is defective.

Solution

Let defective item(𝑋) =”success”

𝑁 = 100 ,𝑟 = 5 , 𝑛 = 10 and 𝑥 = 0 then:

(𝑥𝑟 )(𝑁−𝑟
𝑛−𝑥
)
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) =
(𝑁𝑛)

(50)(10
95
)
𝑃(𝑋 = 0) =
(100
10
)

= 0.58

1.8.4 Geometric distribution

This distribution is related to a sequence of Bernoulli trials except that the number of trials is
not fixed. Under this distribution, the random variable 𝑋 is defined to be the number of trials
required to achieve the 1st success.

FORMAL DEFINITION

A random variable 𝑋 is said to be have a geometric distribution if the discrete probability

distribution function of 𝑋 is given by

𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = 𝑝(1 − 𝑝)𝑥−1 , 𝑥 = 1,2,3, …

i.e 𝑋~𝐺𝐸𝑂(𝑝) where 𝑥 is the number of trials before the first success, and 𝑝= probability of
a successes on a single trial.

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Example

An oil company has determined that the probability of striking oil on any particular drilling is
0.2. what is the probability that it would drill four dry wells before striking oil on the fifth
drilling?

Solution

Let 𝑋 = number of trials until first successes then 𝑋~𝐺𝐸𝑂(𝑝)

𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = 𝑝(1 − 𝑝)𝑥−1 , 𝑥 = 1,2,3, …

Which implies that: 𝑃(𝑋 = 5) = (0.2)(0.8)4

= 0.08192

1 1
Mean: 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝑝 = 0.2 = 5

𝑞 1−𝑝 0.8
Variance: 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 𝑝2 = = 0.22 = 20
𝑝2

1.8.5 Negative binomial distribution

This distribution is sometimes referred to as the Pascal’s distribution and it’s an extension of
the geometric distribution. The random variable is defined to be the number of trials on which
the 𝑟th successes occurs.

FORMAL DEFINITION

A random variable 𝑋 is said to have a negative Binomial distribution if the discrete

probability distribution function of 𝑋 is given by

𝑥−1 𝑟
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = ⟨ ⟩ 𝑝 (1 − 𝑝)𝑥−𝑟
𝑟−1

Where 𝑥 = 𝑟, 𝑟 + 1, 𝑟 + 2, …and 𝑥 is the number of trials until the 𝑟th successes. i.e
𝑋~𝑁𝐵(𝑟, 𝑝).

Note that when 𝑟 = 1, the distribution reduces to the geometric distribution.

Proof:

13
 𝑥−1 𝑟
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = ⟨ ⟩ 𝑝 (1 − 𝑝)𝑥−𝑟
𝑟−1

Where 𝑥 = 𝑟, 𝑟 + 1, 𝑟 + 2, …

(𝑥−1)!
When 𝑟 = 1, ⟨𝑥−1
𝑟−1
⟩ = (𝑟−1)!(𝑥−1−𝑟+1)!

(𝑥 − 1)!
=
(𝑟 − 1)! (𝑥 − 𝑟)!

(𝑥−1)! (𝑥−1)! (𝑥−1)!

But 𝑟 = 1, thus (𝑟−1)!(𝑥−1−𝑟+1)!
= (𝑟−1)!(𝑥−1)! = 0!(𝑥−1)! = 1

Thus

𝑥−1 𝑟
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = ⟨ ⟩ 𝑝 (1 − 𝑝)𝑥−𝑟
𝑟−1

Reduces to

𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = 𝑝(1 − 𝑝)𝑥−1 , 𝑥 = 1,2,3, … when 𝑟 = 1.

Example

Find the probability that a person tossing a fair coin gets:

a) The 1st head on the fourth trial

b) The 3rd head on the seventh trial

Solution

Note that the number of trials is not fixed. Let 𝑋 =number of trials, 𝑝 =probability of
successes on each trial

a) Here 𝑋~𝐺𝐸𝑂(𝑝)
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = 𝑝(1 − 𝑝)𝑥−1 , 𝑥 = 1,2,3, …
1 1 4−1
Therefore 𝑃(𝑋 = 4) = (2) (2)
1
= = 0.0625
16
1
b) Here, 𝑋~𝑁𝐵(𝑟, 𝑝), 𝑝 = 2 , 𝑟 = 3, 𝑥 = 7

14
 𝑥−1 𝑟
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = ⟨ ⟩ 𝑝 (1 − 𝑝)𝑥−𝑟
𝑟−1
7 − 1 1 3 1 7−3
𝑃(𝑋 = 7) = ⟨ ⟩( ) ( )
3−1 2 2

≈ 0.1172

1.9 Probability density function

Recall that a random variable is a numerical description of the outcome of an experiment and
that it can either be discrete or continuous. Discrete random variables assume either a
countable number of values or an infinite sequence of values. Continuous random variables
assume any numerical value in an interval or collection of intervals. Further, we looked at the
discrete probability distribution functions and as well as the special discrete distributions.
Here, we look at continuous probability distributions.

For discrete random variables, the probability function 𝑓(𝑥) is used to calculate the
probability that the random variable assumes a particular value. However, under continuous
random variables, we will use the counterpart of the probability function called probability
density function to compute the probability that the continuous random variable 𝑋 assumes
any value in some interval.

In other words, the probability density function does not directly provide probabilities. The
area under the graph of 𝑓(𝑥) corresponding to some interval provides the probability that the
continuous random variable 𝑋 assumes a value in that interval. A consequence/implication of
the above definition of probabilities for continuous random variables is that the probability of
any particular value of the random variable is zero. This is because the area under the curve
of 𝑓(𝑥) at any particular point is zero. (i.e for continuous random variables, the probability
that 𝑋 assumes a particular value is zero).

FORMAL DEFINITION

Let 𝑋 be a continuous random variable. Then the function 𝑓(𝑥) is said to be the probability
density function (pdf) of a continuous random variable 𝑋 if the following holds:

1) 𝑓(𝑥) ≥ 0 for all 𝑥

∞
2) ∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 = 1
𝑏
3) For any real number 𝑎 < 𝑏, 𝑃(𝑎 < 𝑥 < 𝑏) = ∫𝑎 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥. Which is simply the area
under the curve of 𝑓(𝑥) between 𝑎 and 𝑏.
𝑓(𝑥)
15
 𝑓(𝑥)

𝑎 𝑏 →

𝑥
Note that for continuous random variables,

𝑏
𝑃(𝑎 < 𝑥 < 𝑏) = 𝑃(𝑎 ≤ 𝑥 < 𝑏) = 𝑃(𝑎 < 𝑥 ≤ 𝑏) = 𝑃(𝑎 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝑏) = ∫ 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥
𝑎

Example

Suppose that 𝑋 is a continuous random variable and that its pdf is given by

2𝑥, 0 < 𝑥 < 1

𝑓(𝑥) = {
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒

Show that 𝑓(𝑥) is a pdf of 𝑋.

Solution

Recall that for 𝑓(𝑥) to be a pdf of 𝑋, conditions (1) and (2) should hold i.e

1) 𝑓(𝑥) ≥ 0 for all 𝑥

∞
2) ∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 = 1
By observation 𝑓(𝑥) ≥ 0 for all x

∞ 1
∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 = ∫0 2𝑥𝑑𝑥 = 𝑥 2 |10 = 12 − 02 = 1

Since (1) and (2) holds, 𝑓(𝑥) is the pdf of 𝑋.

Example

Suppose a random variable 𝑋 has the following probability density function

𝑥, 0 < 𝑥 < 1
𝑓(𝑥) = {2 − 𝑥, 1 ≤ 𝑥 < 2
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒

Find:

1) 𝑃(−1 < 𝑥 < 0.5)

16
 2) 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 1.5)
3) 𝑃(𝑋 > 2.5)
4) 𝑃(0.25 < 𝑥 < 1.5)
Solution

0.5 0 2
1) 𝑃(−1 < 𝑥 < 0.5) = ∫−1 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 = ∫−1 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 + ∫0 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥
0 2
= ∫ 0 𝑑𝑥 + ∫ 𝑥 𝑑𝑥
−1 0
1
1
= 0 + 𝑥 2 |20
2
1 1 2 1
= [ ( ) − 0] =
2 2 8
0 1 1.5
2) 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 1.5) = ∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 + ∫0 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 + ∫1 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥
0 1 1.5
= ∫ 0 𝑑𝑥 + ∫ 𝑥 𝑑𝑥 + ∫ (2 − 𝑥)𝑑𝑥
−∞ 0 1
3 7
= 0 + 0.5 + =
8 8
3) 𝑃(𝑋 > 2.5) since it is outside the domain the probability is 0. That is, (𝑋 > 2.5) = 0.
4) 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 3) =area under the graph

𝑓(𝑥)

𝑥
← →

0 1 2
⇒ 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 3) = 1 i.e 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 3) = ∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 + ∫0 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 + ∫1 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 +
3
∫2 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥
0 1 2 3
= ∫ 0 𝑑𝑥 + ∫ 𝑥 𝑑𝑥 + ∫ (2 − 𝑥)𝑑𝑥 + ∫ 0 𝑑𝑥
−∞ 0 1 2
2
1 21 𝑥2
= 0 + 𝑥 |0 + [2𝑥 − ]| + 0 = 1
2 2 1

17
 1.5 1 1.5
𝑃(0.25 < 𝑥 < 1.5) = ∫ 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 = ∫ 𝑥𝑑𝑥 + ∫ (2 − 𝑥)𝑑𝑥
0.25 0.25 1
1.5
1 21 𝑥2 27
= 𝑥 |0.25 + [2𝑥 − ]| =
2 2 1 32
1.9.1 Cumulative distribution function (CDF)
The CDF or distribution function for a continuous random variable 𝑋, denoted by 𝐹, is given
by:
𝑥
𝐹(𝑥) = ∫ 𝑓(𝑡)𝑑𝑡
−∞

Recall that 𝐹(𝑥) is a distribution function for some random variable 𝑋 if the following holds:

1) lim 𝐹(𝑥) = 0
𝑥→−∞

2) lim 𝐹(𝑥) = 1
𝑥→+∞

3) If 𝑎 < 𝑏 then 𝐹(𝑎) ≤ 𝐹(𝑏)

4) lim 𝐹(𝑥 + ℎ) = 𝐹(𝑥)
0<ℎ→0

Recall that the CDF graph for a discrete random variable is stepwise or is a staircase
situation. However, the CDF graph for a continuous random variable is:

Example

Find the CDF/distribution function for a continuous random variable 𝑋 with the following
pdf

2𝑥, 0 < 𝑥 < 1

𝑓(𝑥) = {
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒

Solution

The CDF is given by

𝑥
𝐹(𝑥) = ∫ 𝑓(𝑡)𝑑𝑡
−∞

18
 𝑥
= ∫ 2𝑡𝑑𝑡
0

= 𝑡 2 |0𝑥 = 𝑥 2 .

𝑥2, 0 < 𝑥 ≤ 1
⸫𝐹(𝑥) = {
1, 𝑥>1

1.9.2 SPECIAL CONTNUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS

These include: normal distribution, exponential distribution, uniform distribution, gamma
distribution and Weibull distribution.

1.9.2.1 Normal distribution

The normal probability distribution is the most vital probability distribution for describing
continuous random variables. The normal probability distribution is widely used in statistical
inference. It is also used in practical applications in which the random variables are heights,
weights, test scores, etc. the shape or form of the normal probability distribution is bell-
shaped.

Standard deviation 𝜎

FORMAL DEFINITION

Let 𝑋 be a random variable that is normally distributed. Then the normal probability density
function is given by:

1 𝑥−𝜇 2
1 [− ( ) ]
𝑓(𝑥) = √2𝜋𝜎2 𝑒𝑥𝑝 2 𝜎 for −∞ < 𝑥 < ∞,⇒𝑥 ∈ ℝ OR

1 2
𝑓(𝑥) = 𝜎√2𝜋 𝑒 −(𝑥−𝜇)/2𝜎 for −∞ < 𝑥 < ∞,⇒𝑥 ∈ ℝ

Where:

𝜇 =mean, 𝜎 =standard deviation, 𝜋 =3.14159, 𝜎 2 =variance and 𝑒 = 2.71828.

𝑋~𝑁(𝜇, 𝜎 2 )

19
1.9.2.1.1 Characteristics of a normal probability distribution

1) Normal probability distributions are differentiated by their means 𝜇 and standard

deviations 𝜎.
2) The highest point on the normal curve is at the mean, which is also the median and
mode of the distribution.
3) The mean of the distribution can be any numerical value e.g it can be negative, zero or
positive.

-10 0 20

4) The normal probability distribution is symmetric. That is, the left side of the mean
mirrors the right side of the mean. Note that the tails of the curve extend to infinity in
both directions and theoretically never touch the horizontal axis.
5) The standard deviation determines the width of the curve. That is, wider values of 𝜎
result in wider, flatter curves, suggesting more variability in the data.

𝜎=5

𝜎 = 10

6) Probabilities for the normal random variable are given by areas under the curve. The
total area under the curve of the normal probability distribution is 1. This property is
true for continuous probability distributions. Since the distribution is symmetric, the
area to the left of the mean is 0.5 and also 0.5 to the right.
7) The percentage of the values in some commonly used intervals are shown below

99.72%
95.44%
20
 95.44%

𝜇 − 3𝜎 𝜇 − 2𝜎 𝜇−𝜎 𝜇 𝜇+𝜎 𝜇 + 2𝜎 𝜇 + 3𝜎

⇒68.26% of the values of a normal random variable are within plus or minus one
standard deviation of its mean.
⇒95.44%
⇒ 99.71%
1.9.2.1.2 Standard normal probability distribution
A random variable that has a normal distribution with a 𝜇 = 0 and 𝜎 = 1 is said to have a
standard normal probability distribution.

𝜎=1

0
To obtain the probability that the normal random variable falls in some interval, we find the
area under the normal curve over that interval

𝑃(0.00 ≤ 𝑍 ≤ 1.00)

0 2

21
The 𝑃(−1 ≤ 𝑍 ≤ 1) is:

−1 0 1

⇒ 𝑃(−1 ≤ 𝑍 ≤ 1) = 𝑃(−1 ≤ 𝑍 ≤ 0) + 𝑃(0 ≤ 𝑍 ≤ 1)

The 𝑃(𝑍 ≥ 2) is:

0 2

The 𝑃(𝑍 ≥ 2) = 0.5 − 𝑃(0 ≤ 𝑍 ≤ 2).

1.9.2.1.3 Computing probabilities for any normal probability distribution

Probabilities for all normal distributions are computed using the standard normal distribution.
In other words, we convert the normal distributions to the standard normal distribution when
making comparisons. We convert normal random variable 𝑋 with mean 𝜇 and standard
deviation 𝜎 to the standard normal distribution using the formula:

22
 𝑋−𝜇
𝑍=
𝜎

Example

Engineers at TOYOTA have a new steel belt radial tire, and have estimated the mean tire
mileage at 𝜇 = 36500 miles and the standard deviation at 𝜎 = 5000 miles. Besides this, the
data collected indicate that a normal distribution is a reasonable assumption.

What percentage of the tires can be expected to last more than 40000 miles? Or what is the
probability that the tire mileage will exceed 40000 miles?

Solution

𝑋−𝜇 40000−36500
𝑋~𝑁(𝜇, 𝜎 2 ), 𝑋 = 40000 and 𝑍 = = = 0.7
𝜎 5000

Using the table, the area corresponding to 𝑍 = 0.70 is 0.2580. i.e 𝑃(𝑍 = 0.70) = 0.2580.

⇒𝑃(𝑍 > 0.70) = 0.5 − 0.2580 = 0.2420.

Conclusion

There is a 0.2420 probability that 𝑋 will be above 40000. About 24.2% of the tires
manufactured by TOYOTA can be expected to last more than 40000 miles.

Summary

The normal distribution is the most vital continuous distribution in the entire field of
statistics. Continuous normal random variables have bell-shaped distributions as shown
below

𝜇 X

Recall that the probability density function of a normal random variable with mean 𝜇 and
variance 𝜎 2 is given by:

23
 1 1 𝑥−𝜇 2
[− ( ) ]
𝑓(𝑥) = {√2𝜋𝜎 2 𝑒𝑥𝑝 2 𝜎 for − ∞ < 𝑥 < ∞
0 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒

We noted that the sampling distribution of 𝑋̅ is normally distributed. This therefore means
that we can use the standard normal distribution to find the area or probability that the sample
mean will fall in some interval.

1.9.2.2 Standard normal distribution

This is the normal distribution with 𝜇 = 0 and standard deviation equal to one. It is given by

𝑋−𝜇
𝑍=
𝜎

𝑍 =Z-score, 𝑋 =random variable, 𝜇 =mean and 𝜎 =standard deviation.

𝜇 =? 𝜇=0
𝜎 =? 𝜎=1

Properties of the standard normal curve

1) It is bell-shaped with area under the curve equal to 1

2) It is symmetrical about the mean 𝜇 = 0
3) The area from −𝑎 to 0 is the same as from 0 to 𝑎. That is from −𝑍 to 0 is equal to
from 0 to 𝑍.

24
 −𝑍 0 𝑍

4) There are close to 3 standard deviations to the left or right of 0. Note

𝑃(𝑍 = 𝑎) = 𝑃(0 < 𝑍 < 𝑎)

0 𝑍=𝑎
2

Examples (Refer to the standardized normal distribution or z-table)

(1) Find 𝑃(𝑍 = 0.93), 𝑃(𝑍 > 0.93) and 𝑃(𝑍 > 0.93)

Solution

a) 𝑃(𝑍 = 0.93)

0 0.93

Area under the curve equals 𝑃(𝑍 = 0.93) = 0.3238

25
 b) 𝑃(𝑍 > 0.93)

Required area

0 0.93

𝑃(𝑍 > 0.93) = 0.5 − 𝑃(𝑍 = 0.93) = 0.5 − 𝑃(0 < 𝑍 < 0.93)
= 0.5 − 0.3238 = 0.1762
c) 𝑃(𝑍 > 0.93)

0 0.93

⸫𝑃(𝑍 > 0.93) = 0.5 + 𝑃(𝑍 = 0.93)

= 0.5 + 𝑃(0 < 𝑍 < 0.93)
= 0.5 + 0.3238
= 0.8238
Note: under continuous distributions the probability of a point (e.g 𝑋 = 𝑎 𝑜𝑟 𝑏) is zero, thus
we need not be concerned about the end points of the interval of interest i.e
𝑃(𝑎 < 𝑋 < 𝑏) = 𝑃(𝑎 ≤ 𝑋 < 𝑏) = 𝑃(𝑎 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 𝑏) = 𝑃(𝑎 < 𝑋 ≤ 𝑏)
However, the above probabilities may differ under discrete distributions. Note that we will
standardizing normal distributions to find probabilities that the random variable of interest
𝑋−𝜇 𝜎 2
falls in some interval. For example if 𝑋~𝑁(𝜇, 𝜎 2 ) then 𝑍 = . Thus if 𝑋̅~𝑁(𝜇, 𝑛 ) then
𝜎
𝑋̅−𝜇
𝑍 = 𝜎⁄ .
√𝑛

1.9.2.3 Exponential probability distribution

The exponential probability distribution is useful in describing/determining the amount of
time to elapse until the next event occurs. Or the exponential probability is useful in
describing the time it takes to complete the task.

Examples include:

26
 1) The length of time between emergency arrivals at the hospital
2) The amount of time between breakdowns of manufacturing equipment
3) The time required to load a truck
4) Time between arrivals at a car wash
5) The amount of time between one earthquake and the next earthquake.
FORMAL DEFINITION

A continuous random variable 𝑋 has the exponential distribution with mean 𝜇 if its pdf is
given by:
𝑥
1 −
𝑓(𝑥) = 𝜇 𝑒 𝜇 , for 𝑥 ≥ 0, 𝜇 > 0

1 −𝑥
𝑒 𝜇, 𝑥 ≥ 0
𝑓(𝑥) = { 𝜇
0, 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒

OR

A continuous random variable 𝑋 has the exponential distribution with 𝜆 > 0 (the rate) it its
pdf is given by

−𝜆𝑥
𝑓(𝑥) = { 𝜆𝑒 , 𝑥 ≥ 0
0, 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒

Graphically
𝑓(𝑥)
𝜆

→
0 𝑥

Computing probabilities for the exponential distribution

The area under the curve corresponding to an interval provides the probability that a random
variable assumes a value in that interval.

27
For example, the shaded areas represent the probabilities;

𝑓(𝑥)

0 5 𝑥

𝑓(𝑥)

0 5 10
x

1.9.2.4 Cumulative distribution function

The CDF can be used to compute exponential probabilities. The CDF of an exponential is
given by

−𝜆𝑥𝑜
𝐹(𝑋𝑜 ) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥𝑜 ) = {1 − 𝑒 ,𝑥 ≥ 0
0, 𝑥<0

OR

𝑥
− 𝑜
𝜇 ,𝑥
𝐹(𝑋𝑜 ) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥𝑜 ) = {1 − 𝑒 ≥0
0, 𝑥<0

Example

28
Suppose that the lifetime of an electric component follows an exponential distribution with

𝜆 = 0.1. find the probability that the lifetime is between 5 and 15 hours.

Solution

let𝑋 ≡lifetime of a component. Then 𝑋~𝐸𝑥𝑝(𝜆), with 𝜆 = 0.1 we seek: 𝑃(5 < 𝑋 < 15).
∞
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = ∫ 𝜆𝑒 −𝜆𝑥 𝑑𝑥, 𝑥 > 0
0

15
⇒𝑃(5 < 𝑋 < 15) = ∫5 𝜆𝑒 −𝜆𝑥 𝑑𝑥

1 𝑑(𝑒 𝑎𝑥 )
Recall that for 𝑋 ∈ ℝ, ∫ 𝑒 𝑎𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = 𝑎 𝑒 𝑎𝑥 + 𝑐 and = 𝑎𝑒 𝑎𝑥
𝑑𝑥

15
⸫𝑃(5 < 𝑋 < 15) = ∫ 𝜆𝑒 −𝜆𝑥 𝑑𝑥
5

15
= −𝑒 −𝜆𝑥 |5

= −𝑒 −15𝜆 + 𝑒 −5𝜆

But 𝜆 = 0.1

⸫ = −𝑒 −150(0.1) + 𝑒 −5(0.1) = 0.3834

1.9.2.5 Relationship between the Poisson and Exponential distributions

Recall that the Poisson distribution provides a description of the number of occurrences per
interval. On the other hand, the exponential distribution provides a description of the length
of the interval between occurrences. The Poisson probability function was given by

𝜇 𝑥 𝑒 −𝜇
𝑓(𝑥) =
𝑥!

Let us assume the number of cars arriving at a car wash during one hour is described by the
Poisson distribution with mean 10 cars per hour. Thus the pdf is:

10𝑥 𝑒 −10
𝑓(𝑥) =
𝑥!

Since the average number of cars arriving in an hour is 10, the average time between cars
arriving is:

29
 1 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟
= 0.1 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟/𝑐𝑎𝑟
10 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑠

Therefore, the corresponding exponential distribution that describes the time between the
arrivals has a mean 𝜇 = 0.1 hour per car.

⇒the appropriate exponential is:

1 −𝑥
𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑒 0.1 = 10𝑒 −10𝑥
0.1

1.9.3 Uniform distribution

A random variable 𝑋 is said to be uniformly distributed over the interval [𝑎, 𝑏] if its
probability distribution function (pdf) is given by

1
𝑓(𝑥) = {𝑏 − 𝑎 , 𝑎 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝑏
0, 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒

Thus if 𝑋 is uniformly distributed over the interval [𝑎, 𝑏], we write 𝑋~𝑈[𝑎, 𝑏].

Note that the mean and variance of a uniformly distributed random variable 𝑋 are given by:

𝑎+𝑏
Mean: 𝜇𝑥 = 𝐸(𝑋) = 2

(𝑏−𝑎)2
Variance: 𝜎𝑥2 = 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 12

Proof:
∞
𝐸(𝑋) = ∫ 𝑥𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥
−∞

𝑏
1
= ∫ 𝑥 𝑑𝑥
𝑏−𝑎 𝑎

1 𝑥2 𝑏
= [ ]|
𝑏−𝑎 2 𝑎

1 𝑏 2 𝑎2
= [ − ]
𝑏−𝑎 2 2
1 (𝑏 − 𝑎)(𝑏 + 𝑎)
= .
𝑏−𝑎 2

30
 𝑏+𝑎
=
2
Graphically the pdf of a uniformly distributed random variable 𝑋 is given by

𝑓(𝑋)

1
𝑏−1

0 𝑎 𝑏 𝑋
While the cumulative distribution function (CDF) 0f a uniformly distributed random variable
𝑋 is given by

0, 𝑥≤𝑎
𝑥−𝑎
𝐹(𝑥) = { ,𝑎 < 𝑥 < 𝑏
𝑏−𝑎
1, 𝑥≥𝑏

Graphically, the CDF is:

𝐹(𝑋)

0 𝑎 𝑏 𝑋

31
Example

A point is chosen on the line segment [0,2]. What is the probability that the chosen point lies
3
between 1 and 2?

Solution

The pdf of 𝑋 is:

1
𝑓(𝑥) = {𝑏 − 𝑎 , 𝑎 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝑏
0, 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
1
Since 𝑎 = 0 and 𝑏 = 2 and this implies that 𝑓(𝑥) = 2 , 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 2. But we seek
3
𝑃 [1 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 2].

Note that 𝑃(𝑎 < 𝑥 < 𝑏) = 𝑃(𝑎 ≤ 𝑥 < 𝑏) = 𝑃(𝑎 < 𝑥 ≤ 𝑏) = 𝑃(𝑎 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝑏)

3
3 21
𝑃 [1 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ ] = ∫ 𝑑𝑥
2 1 2

3
𝑥2
= |
21

1
= = 0.25
4

1.9.4 Gamma distribution

The Gamma distribution, denoted by 𝛤 is given by
∞
𝛤(𝜌) = ∫ 𝑥 𝜌−1 𝑒 −𝑥 𝑑𝑥, 𝜌>0
0

Integrating by parts, we have;

Let 𝑢 = 𝑥 𝜌−1 , 𝑑𝑣 = 𝑒 −𝑥 𝑑𝑥

𝑑𝑢
= (𝜌 − 1)𝑥 𝜌−2 and ∫ 𝑑𝑣 = ∫ 𝑒 −𝑥 𝑑𝑥 ⇒ 𝑣 = −𝑒 −𝑥
𝑑𝑥

⸫ ∫ 𝑢𝑑𝑣 = 𝑢𝑣 − ∫ 𝑣𝑑𝑢

∫ 𝑥 𝜌−1 𝑒 −𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = 𝑥 𝜌−1 (−𝑒 −𝑥 ) − ∫ −𝑒 −𝑥 (𝜌 − 1)𝑥 𝜌−2 𝑑𝑥

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 ∞ ∞
∞
⇒ ∫ 𝑥 𝜌−1 𝑒 −𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = 𝑥 𝜌−1 (−𝑒 −𝑥 )| + ∫ 𝑒 −𝑥 (𝜌 − 1)𝑥 𝜌−2 𝑑𝑥
0
0 0

∞
𝜌−1 (−𝑒 −𝑥 )|∞
=𝑥 + (𝜌 − 1) ∫ 𝑒 −𝑥 𝑥 𝜌−2 𝑑𝑥
0 0

∞
= 0 + (𝜌 − 1) ∫ 𝑒 −𝑥 𝑥 𝜌−2 𝑑𝑥
0

= (𝜌 − 1)𝛤(𝜌 − 1)

Formal definition

Let us suppose 𝑋 is a continuous random variable. We say 𝑋 has a Gamma distribution if its
pdf is

𝜆
𝑓(𝑥) = 𝛤(𝑟) (𝜆𝑥)𝑟−1 𝑒 −𝜆𝑥 , 𝑥 > 0.

∞
Note that if 𝑟 = 1, then 𝑋~exponential distribution since 𝛤(1) = ∫0 𝑒 −𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = 1.

Note further that the gamma distribution has an interesting recursion relationship illustrated
below:

Let us assume 𝜌 = 𝑛, then

𝛤(𝑛) = (𝑛 − 1)𝛤(𝑛 − 1)

= (𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2)𝛤(𝑛 − 2)

= (𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2)(𝑛 − 3) … 𝛤(1)

∞ ∞
But since 𝛤(𝜌) = ∫0 𝑥 𝜌−1 𝑒 −𝑥 𝑑𝑥 ⇒ 𝛤(1) = ∫0 𝑒 −𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = 1.

⸫ 𝛤(𝑁) = (𝑛 − 1)!

The mean and variance of a gamma distribution is:

𝑟 𝑟
Mean: 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝜆 and Variance: 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 𝜆2

1.9.5 Weibull distribution

If 𝑋 is distributed with parameters 𝛼 and 𝛽, then its pdf is given by

𝛽−1 −𝛼𝑥 𝛽
𝑓(𝑥) = {𝛼𝛽𝑥 𝑒 , 𝑥 > 0, 𝛼 > 0, 𝛽 > 0
0, 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒

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With mean and variance given by

−1 1
𝐸(𝑋) = 𝛼 𝛽 𝛤( + 1)
𝛽

−2 2
2 1
𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 𝛼 𝛽 {𝛤 ( + 1) − 𝛤 ( + 1) }
𝛽 𝛽

1.10 Formative Evaluations

Discrete probability distributions

1. A production lot of size 100 has 5% defective items. A random sample of size 10 items
is selected (without replacement). Let X be an event that there are exactly two
defectives and Y be an event that there are no defectives and Z be the event that there
are almost 2 defectives. Find the probability of X, Y and Z.
2. In a city of Mazyopa lived two fellows, Mwila Mukupa and Victor Mawele with age
difference of 5, and Mwila being the oldest was 24 years. They only lived on potatoes
for their consumption. In an event that potatoes are bad, their consumption pattern got
distorted. One day, Mukupa ventured with Mawele to buy a sack of potatoes at a total
price of K30. Suppose that 30% of the potatoes in a sack are bad. If a potato is bad,
there is a 90% chance that Mukupa and Mawele will notice it and hence remove it from
the sack. If
the potato is not bad, there is a 20% chance that they will think it is bad and remove it
from the sack.
i. If the potato is removed from the sack, what is the probability that it is bad?
ii. If the two fellows gave a potato that had not been removed from the sack to
their neighbor for consumption, what is the probability that it is bad?
iii. If the sack had a total of 17 potatoes, what is the probability that at least three
potatoes pick at random from the sack are bad?
iv. If the sack had a total of 17 potatoes, what is the probability that at most
sixteen potatoes pick at random from the sack are bad?
v. What is the probability distribution of the potatoes in part (c)?
vi. What is the probability distribution of the potatoes in part (d)?
vii. What is the expected number of good potatoes in pert (c) above?
viii. What is the expected number of bad potatoes in pert (d) above?
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 3. You arrive at a bus stop at 10:00, knowing that the bus will arrive at some time
uniformly distributed between 10:00 and 10:30. What is the probability that you will
have to wait
i. longer than 10 minutes?
ii. an additional 10 or more minutes, if at 10:15 the bus has not yet arrived?
4. Phone calls arrive at the rate of 48 per hour at the reservation desk for regional airways.
i. Compute the probability of receiving 3 calls in a 5-minute interval of time.
ii. Compute the probability of receiving exactly 10 calls in 15 minutes.
iii. Suppose no calls are currently on hold. If the argent takes 5 minutes to
complete the current call, how many callers do you expect to be waiting by
that time? What is the probability that non will be waiting?
5. Sharon-Green Ltd produces bags made of leather. The weight in pounds per bag varies,
as shown below in the table.
Weight in pounds 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
Proportion of bags 0.04 0.13 0.21 0.29 0.2 0.1 0.03

i. Graph the probability distribution.

ii. Calculate and graph the cumulative probability distribution
iii. What is the probability that a randomly chosen bag will contain more than
45 and less than 49 pounds of leather?
iv. Two packages are chosen at random. What is the probability that at least
one of them contains at least 47 pounds?
Continuous Probability distributions

1. An ECN 2331 test one is graded on the scale 0 to 1, with 0.55 needed to pass. Student
scores are modeled by the following density:
4𝑥 𝑓𝑜𝑟 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 1/2
𝑓(𝑥) = { 4 − 4𝑥 𝑓𝑜𝑟 1/2 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 1
0 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
i. What is the probability that a random student passes the exam?
ii. What score is the 87.5 percentile of the distribution?
2. In an experiment performed, a balanced coin was tossed three times. By letting X=the
number of heads, determine the probability mass function for this experiment.
𝑋+1
3. Let 𝑓(𝑋) = , 𝑋 ∈ [2,4]
8

i. Show that 𝑓(𝑋) is the probability density function.

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 ii. Find 𝑃(𝑋 > 3.5) and 𝑃(2.4 < 𝑋 < 3.5)
4. Suppose that on average one person in every 1000 people has a heart problem. Find the
probability that a random sample of 8000 people will have fewer than 7 people with
heart problems.
5. Suppose that an airplane engine will fail, when in flight, with probability 1 − 𝑝
independently from engine to engine; suppose that the airplane will make a successful
flight if atleast 50 percent of its engines remain operative. For what values of 𝑝 is a
four-engine plane preferable to a two-engine plane?
6. Consider an experiment that consists of counting the number of ∝-particles given off
in a one-second interval by one gram of radioactive material. If we know from past
experience that, on the average, 3.2 such ∝-particles are given off, what is the good
approximation to the probability that no more than 2 ∝-particles will appear?
7. Rainfall in Lusaka follows an exponential distribution with mean 15mm per
day. Find the probability that

i. the rainfall will exceed 17 mm on a given day.

ii. in four out of the next 5 days the rainfall will be less than the mean.
8. Suppose that the shipment contains 100 items out of which 10% are defective. The
receiving firm selects a random sample of size 2 and will accept the shipment if both
items are non-defective,
i. What is the probability that the shipment is accepted?
ii. Suppose that the shipment has 20% defective. What is the probability that the
shipment will be accepted?
9. A manufacturer of microwave ovens is trying to determine the length of the warranty
period it should attach to its magnetron tube, the most critical component in the
microwave oven. Preliminary testing has shown that the life of the tube has an
exponential distribution with mean 6.25 years.
i. What is the warranty period if the manufacturer wants to replace only 10% of
the magnetron tubes?
ii. If the warranty is 4 years what percentage of the tubes will be requested?
10. The Rockwell hardness of a metal specimen is determined by impressing the surface
of the specimen with a hardened point, and then measuring the depth of penetration.
The hardness of an alloy is normally distributed with mean 70 units and standard
deviation 3 units.

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 i. If a specimen is acceptable only if its hardness is between 66 and 74 units,
what is the probability that a randomly chosen specimen is acceptable?
ii. If the acceptable range is 70± C, for what value of C would 95% of all the
specimens be acceptable?
11. A survey of financial institutions which offered tax-efficient savings accounts was
conducted. These accounts had limits on the amounts of money that could be invested
each year. The study was interested in comparing the maturity values achieved by
investing the maximum possible amount each year over a certain time period.
The maturity values for such investments follows a normal distribution with mean
amount K11815 and standard deviation K2308.
Calculate the probability that an account has a maturity value of:
i. Less than K8000
ii. Between K8000 and K15000
i. Given that the average maturity value for an offshore savings account is
K15000, explain briefly how many clients from (a)&(b) above out of one
million account holders would beat this average given the same savings
pattern. Comment on whether offshore savings present a better option in
general.

1.11 Unit Summary

This unit defined and discussed random variables and thereafter discussed both discrete and
continuous probability distributions. Besides this, the application of special discrete
probability distributions (Binomial, Poisson, Hypergeometric, Geometric, Negative Binomial) as
well as Continuous probability distributions (normal, exponential, uniform, gamma, weibull) were
discussed.

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