University and Community

College System of Nevada

Reconciling Urban Fugitive Dust Emissions Inventory

and Ambient Source Contribution Estimates:
Summary of Current Knowledge and Needed Research
DRI Document No. 6110.4F

May, 2000

PREPARED BY

John G. Watson and Judith C. Chow

Desert Research Institute
2215 Raggio Parkway
Reno, NV 89512

WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS:

William Barnard – E.H. Pechan and Associates Inc.

William Benjey – U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Will Cates – Clark County Dept. of Comprehensive Planning
John Core – Core Environmental Consulting
Chatten Cowherd – Midwest Research Institute
Dennis Fitz – University of California, Riverside
Donald Gatz – Illinois State Water Survey
Dale Gillette – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
David James – University of Nevada, Las Vegas
William Kuykendal – U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Ronald Myers – U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, MD-14
William Nickling – University of Guelph
Duane Ono – Great Basin Unified Air Pollution Control District
Thompson Pace – U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Thomas Rosendahl – U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, MD-15
Dale Shimp – California Air Resources Board
W. George N. Slinn – Consultant
Melvin Zeldin – South Coast Air Quality Management District






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4. MODELS FOR FUGITIVE DUST CONTRIBUTIONS
Estimates of source contributions from fugitive dust and other sources are made using
air quality models. Source-oriented emissions, meteorology, chemical transport models, and
receptor models are often used independently to assess source contributions. A better
integration of these different modeling systems would identify emission mechanisms that are
not adequately represented in any of the models and would improve the attribution of
excessive PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations to fugitive dust sources.

Emission models need to be compatible with the spatial scales of atmospheric

dispersion models and PM10 or PM2.5 measurement networks. These scales (Watson et al.,
1997b) are given below. Distances indicate the diameter of a circle, or the length and width
of a grid square, with a monitor at its center.

• Microscale (10 to 100 m): Microscale pollutant concentrations show significant

differences between locations separated by 10 to 50 m. This often occurs next to
a emission sources, such as a busy roadway, construction site, vent, or short stack.

• Middle Scale (100 to 500 m): Middle-scale pollutant concentrations show

significant differences between locations that are ~0.1 to 0.5 km apart. Middle-
scale zones of representation are often source-dominated.

• Neighborhood Scale (500 m to 4 km): Neighborhood-scale pollutant

concentrations do not show significant differences with spacing of a few
kilometers. This dimension is often the size of emission and modeling grids used
in large urban areas for source assessment. Sources affecting neighborhood-scale
sites typically consist of small individual emitters, such as clean, paved, curbed
roads, uncongested traffic flow with a small number of heavy-duty vehicles, or
neighborhood use of residential heating devices such as fireplaces and wood
stoves.

• Urban Scale (4 to 100 km): Urban-scale monitors show consistency among

concentrations separated by of tens of kilometers. These concentrations represent
a mixture of pollutants from many sources within an urban complex, including
those from the smaller scales.

• Regional-Scale Background (100 to 1,000 km): Regional-scale concentrations

show consistency among measurements for separations of a few hundred
kilometers. Regional concentrations are often more consistent for secondary
pollutants, such as ozone, sulfate, and nitrate, than they are for primary PM10 or
PM2.5 emissions. Regional-scale concentrations are a combination of naturally
occurring substances as well as pollutants generated in urban and industrial areas
that may be more than 1,000 km distant. Regional-scale sites are best located in
rural areas away from local sources, and at higher elevations.

• Continental-Scale Background (1,000 to 10,000 km): Continental-scale

background concentrations show little variation even when they are separated by

4-1
 more than 1,000 km. They are hundreds of kilometers from the nearest
significant emitters. Although these sites measure a mixture of natural and
diluted manmade source contributions, the manmade component is at its
minimum expected concentration.

• Global-Scale Background (>10,000 km): Global-scale background

concentrations represent source emissions transported between different
continents as well as naturally emitted particles and precursors from oceans,
volcanoes, and windblown dust.

4.1 Emission Models

Previous sections have discussed the emissions inventory as a static entity based on
empirical factors related to commonly available data. While emissions inventories provide
useful compilations of information, they will not achieve their full potential until they are
elevated to the status of other air quality models that are applicable to specific situations.
This is especially true for fugitive dust emissions, as these are not confined specific times and
locations as are industrial sources and vehicle exhaust.

Several types of emission models are considered separately: 1) speciated rollback;

2) horizontal and vertical flux; and 3) dynamic activities.

4.1.1 Speciated Rollback

Linear rollback (Barth, 1970; deNevers and Morris, 1975; Cass, 1981; Cass and
McRae, 1981, 1983) is the most commonly used method for control strategy development,
although it is not often identified as such. Rollback assumes that atmospheric concentrations
in excess of background are proportional to aggregate emission rates. Reducing excessive
concentrations of a pollutant to levels below a pre-set standard requires emission reductions
that are proportionally equal to the relative amount by which the standard is exceeded, after
background subtraction. Linear rollback for PM10 or PM2.5 mass emissions identified in
Table 2-1 nearly always targets fugitive dust sources because these are the largest mass
emitters.

A better approach is a speciated rollback that applies to the major chemical

components of PM10 or PM2.5 (i.e., geological material, carbon, sulfate, nitrate, and
ammonia). This requires a speciated inventory that applies chemical profiles to emission
estimates from each source type. Speciated inventories have only been created for specific
modeling studies and are not commonly available in non-attainment areas.

Speciated linear rollback has the fewest complex data requirements, but it also carries
large uncertainties. These uncertainties might not, however, be larger than those associated
with other modeling methods. They may be acceptable for selecting among different
pollution control measures, or at least narrowing the scope of viable alternatives.

Linear rollback does not consider the effects of meteorological transport between
source and receptor or of differences in gas-to-particle conversion for different precursor

4-2
emitters. It is most valid for spatial and temporal averages of ambient concentrations that
represent the entire airshed containing urban-scale sources. The effect of transport from
distant sources located outside the airshed is compensated by subtracting background
concentrations, measured nearby but outside the airshed, from ambient levels prior to
determining needed emission reductions. Linear rollback also assumes for secondary
particles, such as ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate, that one of the precursors limits
particle formation.

Whether or not speciated linear rollback is used to develop control strategies, a

speciated emission model is needed to better evaluate emission estimates against ambient
concentrations. Over year-long temporal and spatial averaging times, the ratio of carbon to
geological concentrations above background levels should be similar in air samples and in a
speciated primary particle inventory.

4.1.2 Horizontal and Vertical Fluxes

Fugitive dust emissions are emitted over large surface areas and are not ducted. This
makes their quantification inherently less accurate than emission tests on stacks or other
ducts through which effluents are ejected into the air.

Fugitive dust emission factors are most commonly determined by measuring the
horizontal flux from an emitting area such as a road or vacant lot (Cowherd et al., 1984).
This is accomplished by locating sampling systems with the desired size-selective inlet (TSP,
PM10, or PM2.5) at various elevations downwind of the dust-emitting area. Monitors located
upwind are used to determine the flux into the emitting domain.

Each of the downwind samplers is used to represent the amount of dust carried by the
wind component perpendicular to a plane parallel to the source. Both the wind speed and
concentration vary with height above ground level, so the horizontal flux is calculated
through an area that extends above and below each sampler. These fluxes are added to
obtain the aggregate emission rate from the source, after the flux of particles into the emitting
area has been subtracted. Figure 4-1 shows a typical configuration for making these
measurements. Sampler elevations, distances from the source, and measurement devices
vary among the different studies that have been conducted.

Figures 4-2 through 4-4 show the cumulate horizontal emission fluxes at different
elevations above ground level (agl) for paved roads, unpaved roads, and bare
soil/construction sites. These plots result from many the same downwind profile tests
(Cowherd, 1999) that were used to derive commonly used PM10 emission factors. The most
noticeable feature from these plots is that approximately 60% to 90% of the horizontal
emission flux is detected at elevations less than 2 m agl.

A 10 µm aerodynamic diameter particle has a settling velocity of ~0.3 cm/s, and

would therefore deposit to the surface within ~5 minutes after achieving an elevation of 1 m
above ground level. This corresponds to a travel distance of no more than 1 km in a 3 m/s
wind. Travel distances would be 0.25 km for a 20 µm particle and 4 km for a 5 µm particle

4-3
 Figure 4-1. Example of horizontal flux measurement system around an unpaved road treated with different suppressants (Watson et
al., 1996b).
4-4
Figure 4-2. Cumulative horizontal PM10 flux at different downwind elevations above
different unpaved roads (data from Cowherd, 1999).

Percent of PM10 Flux below Eelvation 120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Elevation above Unpaved Road (m agl)

Figure 4-3. Cumulative horizontal PM10 flux at different downwind elevations above
different paved roads (data from Cowherd, 1999).

120%
Fraction of PM10 Flux below Elevation

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Elevation above Paved Road (m agl)

4-5
Figure 4-4. Cumulative horizontal PM10 flux at different downwind elevations above
different construction and bare soil sites. (data from Cowherd, 1999).

120%
Percent of PM10 Flux below Elevation

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
0 1 2 3 4 5
Elevation above Construction and Bare Soil (m agl)

under similar wind conditions. Plate-like particles (e.g., clay) fall more slowly than spherical
particles. Upon returning to the surface, supermicron-sized particles can “bounce” and/or
become resuspended (Chamberlain, 1967; Wu et al., 1992; Paw U, 1992). During wind
erosion processes, airborne particles become electrically charged relative to surfaces, and can
be attracted to those surfaces (Schmidt et al., 1998). A fairly well known manifestation of
this charge separation is electrical discharges (“lightning”) near the surface during some dust
storms. The resulting electrical forces can substantially increase the rate of dry deposition of
the airborne particles, a process apparently not currently included in dry deposition models.

If fugitive dust can be lofted from the near-surface atmospheric layer by mechanical
and/or thermally generated turbulence, then particles have potential for residing in the
atmosphere for substantial time periods. If the only removal process is by dry deposition,
with deposition velocity vd, and if the particles are mixed fairly uniformly to a height hd (e.g.,
the height of the atmospheric mixing layer), then the residence time is essentially hd/vd. For
example, if hd = 1 km and if vd = 1 cm/s, then this residence time is 105 sec or approximately
a day.

Low-level particles are likely to deposit to the ground, horizontally impact on nearby
obstructions, or rapidly disperse within a short distance from the point of emissions. The
rapid attenuation of PM10 concentrations downwind of an unpaved road is illustrated in

4-6
Figure 4-5. While there is substantial scatter in the ratios of downwind to roadside
concentrations, it is clear that PM10 is attenuated by ~90% within only 50 m from an unpaved
roadside.

Urban- and regional-scale dispersion models usually consider fugitive dust emissions
at elevations much higher than 2 m agl. Effective emission heights of 5 to 10 m agl are often
used so that a plume can develop downwind of a site. Most models are unable to resolve
terrain variations of 1 to 2 m and do not account for the effects of horizontal impaction on
vegetation and obstructions such as trees, shrubbery, and buildings.

There is little published information on the quantitative effect of nearby obstructions

on low-level dust emissions, but it is common practice to place obstructions such as
greenbelts (Kapoor and Gupta, 1984; Gupta and Kapoor, 1992) near visible dust emitters.
For example, Slinn (1982) shows that dust deposition velocities through a eucalyptus forest
can be five to ten times higher than gravitational settling velocities with wind speeds of 5 to
10 m/s.

Vertical flux is an alternative to horizontal flux as a method to estimate fugitive dust

emissions (Gillette, 1977). Only a fraction of the horizontal flux moves upward, with this
fraction dependent on a variety of meteorological, aerosol, and surface conditions. Vertical

Figure 4-5. Attenuation of PM10 concentrations with distance from an unpaved road
(Watson et al., 1996b).

1
Normalized PM10 at 2 m agl

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Distance from Unpaved Road (m)

4-7
flux emissions can become available for transport to distances beyond the immediate vicinity
of the source. Vertical flux is proportional to particle density, surface friction velocity, and
the difference between particle concentrations at different elevations above ground level.
These variables can be estimated from the same measurements used for horizontal flux
measurements with a configuration similar to that of Figure 4-1 (Nickling and Houser, 1999).

It appears that currently used emission factors based on integrated horizontal flux
adequately represent suspendable dust, the amount that leaves a dust-generating surface, but
they do not adequately represent transportable dust, the fraction of suspendable dust that is
likely to travel more than a few kilometers from the emitter.

More realistic estimates for the vertical components of the dust fluxes from fugitive
emissions are needed to evaluate fugitive-dust concentrations beyond the immediate vicinity
of sources (e.g., Johnson, 1983; Shao and Leslie, 1998). Shao and Leslie (1998) set the
vertical flux for each particle-size range proportional to the horizontal flux, with the
proportionality “constant” dependent on particle size. There is no dependence of the vertical
flux on atmospheric stability.

Modeling of vertical fluxes of particles from fugitive emissions should proceed on

two fronts. For regional- to continental-scale models, algorithms should be developed and
tested to estimate a representative vertical flux (e.g., at the lowest layer of the air quality
model, which is typically 30 m) for emissions in each grid square. This algorithm could
incorporate a relatively simple boundary-layer formulation driven by the larger model’s
regional-scale meteorological fields. For practical applications, simple plume models that
incorporate deposition and atmospheric stability, especially for high-wind-speed cases, need
to be interfaced with vertical emission flux estimates.

4.1.3 Dynamic Activity Models

Dynamic activity models refer to computerized systems that have access to databases
that may change over periods of months, weeks, days, or even hours. Such models could be
assembled after the fact by compiling information specific to modeled episodes. They could
also be created to access certain databases in real time so that the information could be used
to modify activities to minimize fugitive dust emissions from certain activities such as
construction. The structure of dynamic activity models can range from simple spreadsheets
to complex physical interaction models that include meteorological processes to determine
windflows, turbulence, humidity, and other factors that can influence fugitive dust emissions.

Spreadsheets are the easiest and most common means for constructing dynamic
activity models (Kuhns et al., 1998). This approach is most appropriate to a relatively small
area where the number of separate activity databases is limited and where locations can be
precisely defined. Each cell in the spreadsheet can represent a grid, different worksheets can
represent different activity databases, and relationships between activity and emission rates
can be established by calculations in linked worksheets. The spreadsheet approach is most
appropriate when used in rollback calculations, where area-wide, rather than spatially
resolved, emissions are needed.

4-8
 Where complex spatial emission inputs are needed, a Geographical Information
System (GIS) provides the most flexible framework. Many of the available activity
databases (e.g., roadway networks, land use, soil characteristics, traffic volumes) have
irregular shapes onto which an arbitrary grid system must be imposed. This grid system may
change for different applications. For the most part, existing spatial and temporal data sets
compiled for purposes unrelated to air quality are obtained to estimate dust-generating
activity.

While spatial activity data sets may be obtained with seasonal, and possibly even
monthly variations, it is unlikely that more highly resolved information will be available. In
this case, temporal profiles can be imposed on an average emission rate for each source type.
These profiles can be determined theoretically or empirically and should have diurnal as well
as day-of-the-week variability. Figure 4-6 shows an example of diurnal variability in PM10
concentrations at different sampling sites near major roadways in Las Vegas, NV, on
wintertime weekdays and weekends. Although non-traffic sources influence these
concentrations, the weekday morning and evening rush hour contributions from vehicle
exhaust and paved road dust are clearly discernable in the top panel. The bottom panel
shows a distinctly different diurnal profile on weekends. Traffic profiles can also be
developed by vehicle counting and by on-road remote sensing methods.

4.2 Dispersion Models

Source-oriented dispersion models use the outputs from emission, meteorological,

and chemical models to estimate concentrations measured at receptors. Source models
include mathematical simulations of transport, dispersion, vertical mixing, deposition, and
chemical mechanisms to represent transformation. The most common source dispersion
models are Gaussian plume, puff, and grid formulations. Gaussian plume models (Schulze,
1990; Freeman et al., 1986; Schwede and Paumier, 1997) are most often associated with the
straight line wind model and estimate a bell-shaped concentration field in the vertical and
horizontal directions from the wind direction. These models are commonly used to evaluate
potential effects of primary emissions from ducted sources, such as industrial stacks. Puff or
trajectory models treat emissions from a variety of sources as independent entities that are
moved in a curvilinear wind field generated by a diagnostic or prognostic wind model. Grid
models transfer pollutants between boxes with pre-defined vertical and horizontal dimensions
(Bowman et al., 1995; Byun and Ching, 1999; Byun and Dennis, 1995; Yamartino et al.,
1992). Current dispersion modeling of particulate matter emissions is generally
accomplished using gridded Eulerian chemical-transport models (CTM's) on urban to
regional scales. Smaller scales are often modeled by less complex Gaussian plume or
trajectory models.

Meteorological models consist of straight line, interpolation (termed diagnostic), and

first principle (termed prognostic) formulations, with increasing levels of complexity and
requirements for computational and data resources. The straight line model is applied to
hourly wind directions from a single monitor, assuming an air mass travels a distance equal
to the wind velocity in the measured direction, regardless of the distance from the monitoring

4-9
Figure 4-6. Hourly variations in PM10 concentrations acquired by beta attenuation monitors
(BAM) at different urban residential (Walter Johnson), commercial (East Charleston, City
Center) and industrial (Craig/Bemis) sites in Las Vegas, NV on: a) weekdays, and b)
weekends (Chow and Watson, 1997).

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site. This model is applicable for a few hours of transport in flat terrain, typically for
evaluating a single emission source. Interpolation models integrate wind speed and direction
data from multiple measurement locations, including upper air measurements provide by
remote sensors or balloon launches. The more advanced of these models allow barriers, such
as mountains, to be placed between monitors. Wind fields, therefore, show different
directions and velocities at different horizontal and vertical positions. Interpolation wind
models are applicable to domains with a large number of well-placed monitors and for
estimating the movement of air masses from many sources over transport times of more than
half a day. The number and placement of monitors, especially upper air monitors, is
especially important in mountainous terrain and in coastal areas where winds are unusual.

Advanced chemical transport models are driven with meteorological data taken from
prognostic models (Stauffer and Seaman, 1994; Seaman et al., 1995; Koracin and Enger,
1994) that embody scientists’ best knowledge of atmospheric physics and thermodynamics.
These models employ basic equations for conservation and transfer of energy and
momentum. These meteorological models are computationally intensive, often requiring
supercomputers but are becoming more practical and cost-effective as workstation and
desktop computers become more powerful. Modern versions use “four-dimensional data
assimilation” that compare model-calculated wind, humidity, and temperature fields with
measurements and “nudge” model outputs toward observations. A more complex
meteorological model is not necessarily a better model for a specific application. The MM5
meteorological model has been adopted as the platform for several air quality studies
(Seaman et al., 1995).

Emission, chemical transport, and meteorological models must be applied to the same
temporal and spatial scales. Horizontal dimensions of chemical transport models range from
as low as 1 to 2 km for urban-scale applications to 10 to 50 km for regional-scale
applications. Vertical dimensions are treated as layers at different elevations above ground
level with thickness ranging from 20 m to 2,000 m. Most of the model inputs and outputs are
assumed to be homogeneously distributed within rectangular solids with these dimensions.
This assumption implies that inputs and outputs with large spatial variability within these
dimensions will not be well simulated by these models.

Emission data needed for regional modeling includes both emission fluxes and some
characteristics of the emissions and their sources. As noted in Section 4.1, fugitive dust
emissions are derived from horizontal flux estimates. Vertical emission fluxes are better
simulated by chemical transport models. Emissions inventory inputs to chemical transport
models include: 1) source location identification (coordinates for point sources, political
identifiers for political areas); 2) pollutant identification (PM10, PM2.5, or other size
fractions); 3) emission flux (mass per unit time); 4) source type; 5) pollutant emission
controls (if any); 6) effectiveness of controls (if any); 7) applicable time frame of inventory;
and 8) for point sources with stack height, identifier, diameter, flow rate, exhaust
temperature, and exit velocity. There is large contrast between the detailed information
available for industrial sources and the less complete information for area and mobile
sources.

4-11
4.3 Receptor Models

The Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) air quality model is one of several models that
have been applied to air resources management. As described in Section 2, receptor models
use the chemical and physical characteristics of gases and particles measured at source and
receptor to both identify the presence of and to quantify source contributions to receptor
concentrations. Receptor models are generally contrasted with dispersion models that use
pollutant emission rate estimates, meteorological transport, and chemical transformation
mechanisms to estimate the contribution of each source to receptor concentrations. The two
types of models are complementary, with each type having strengths that compensate for the
weaknesses of the other.

The CMB consists of a solution to linear equations that express each receptor
chemical concentration as a linear sum of products of source profile abundances and source
contributions. The source profile abundances (i.e., the mass fraction of a chemical or other
property in the emissions from each source type) and the receptor concentrations, with
appropriate uncertainty estimates, serve as input data to the CMB model. In order to
distinguish among source type contributions, the measured chemical and physical
characteristics must be such that they are present in different proportions in different source
emissions and changes in these proportions between source and receptor are negligible or can
be approximated. The CMB calculates values for the contributions from each source and the
uncertainties of those values.

Receptor models do not need emission rates from an emission model, but they do
need chemical profiles that allow one source to be distinguished from other sources. For
quantitative source apportionment, source profile properties must meet the following criteria:
1) their abundances (mass fraction) are different in different source types; 2) their
abundances do not change appreciably during transport between source and receptor (or such
changes can be simulated by measurement or modeling); and 3) their abundances are
reasonably constant among different emitters and operating conditions for a selected source
type. These profiles are used in emission inventories to separate mass emissions into
chemical component emissions and in receptor models to apportion ambient concentrations
of suspended particles to sources.

Additional chemical and physical properties beyond the commonly measured

elements, ions, and carbon need to be examined to determine which ones can meet these
criteria in practical source apportionment applications. Several types of analyses that might
meet these needs are:

• Appearance: Optical microscopy provides an overview, albeit semi-quantitative,

of the shape, size, mineralogy, and type of different particles with geometric
diameters larger than ~2 µm.

• Soluble and insoluble inorganic elements and compounds: X-ray

fluorescence, proton-induced x-ray emission, instrumental neutron activation
analyses, atomic absorption spectrophotometry, inductively coupled plasma
atomic emission spectroscopy, x-ray diffraction, computer automated scanning

4-12
 electron microscopy, ion chromatography, and automated colorimetry have been
applied, sometimes in conjunction with different extraction and selective sample
preparation techniques, to quantify a variety of elements and crystalline
structures.

• Carbon groupings: Organic and elemental carbon, thermal desorption and

pyrolysis patterns, and solubility in different organic solvents using thermal
manganese oxidation, thermal optical reflectance, thermal optical transmittance,
Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, thermal desorption gas chromatography
and mass spectrometry, and sequential solvent extraction are possibilities.

• Specific organic compounds: Pesticides, herbicides, cellulose, and many other

specific organic compounds may be analyzed by solvent extraction followed by
gas or liquid chromatography with different detectors.

• DNA, toxins, microbes, and bacteria: Biologically specific tests can be applied
to characterize these substances.

• Isotopes: Low-level radioactive counting, dilution mass spectrometry, and

accelerator mass spectrometry are potential methods to quantify unique isotopic
abundances in geological materials.

A systematic survey of the extent to which these observables are found in different
sources is needed to further specify source attribution using receptor models.

4.4 Interaction Among Models

Given the dynamic nature of PM emissions, more accurate representations may be

gained by modeling the emissions as described in Section 4.1. Emission modeling needs to
bring emissions to the same temporal and spatial scales, typically 1 to 10 km and 1 hour
resolutions, that are used for the meteorological and chemical/transport models.

In current practice, emissions are considered static and do not interact with the
modeling process. A better approach would apply a dynamic emission model that uses
meteorology and changing activity databases as inputs. This dynamic emission model would
account for the transportable fraction of dust emissions that is consistent with the spatial
scales of the other models. For microscale modeling of neighborhood impacts, this might
include horizontal fluxes in the lowest levels. For urban and regional modeling with 1 to 10
km spatial domains, only horizontal fluxes at higher elevations, or vertical fluxes, would be
used to represent transportable particles.

Receptor models such as the CMB should be included in this interaction. The first
role of receptor models is the direct apportionment of ambient concentrations to their
sources. This apportionment in and of itself has been of great utility in developing control
strategies in PM10 non-attainment areas. The second role of receptor models is to
independently verify emissions inventories, as in the comparison between inventory and

4-13
source apportionment studies presented in Section 2. Impediments to CMB/inventory
reconciliation are the lack of specificity of chemical components that distinguish different
fugitive dust source types from each other. Receptor models also offer a framework for
evaluating the outputs of complicated air quality models. Source-oriented models produce a
pattern of concentrations and uncertainties similar to CMB source profiles that could be used
by the CMB for a multivariate fit to the ambient data. This is a more complex, and
potentially more accurate “profile aging” process, as represented in a simpler context by
Friedlander (1981).

4.5 Hypothesis Testing

The preceding discussion allows the following conclusions to be drawn about

hypotheses five and six:

• Insufficient and uncertain activity levels. Current emissions inventories are not
dynamic. They do not easily adapt to the changing times and locations of
activities that affect ambient concentrations. Dynamic emission models are
needed that seamlessly interact with meteorological, chemical/transport, and
receptor models. Chemical source profiles need to be enhanced with more
specific markers for different fugitive dust source types to verify changes in
activity through receptor measurements. Dynamic databases of the locations and
timing of emissions need to be incorporated into emission estimation methods.

• Insufficient accounting for injection heights, deposition losses, and horizontal

impaction losses in dispersion models. This is the most evident and
documented cause of discrepancies between emission estimates and ambient
source contributions from fugitive dust. Commonly used fugitive dust emission
factors estimate integrated horizontal fluxes from ~1 m to ~10 m above ground
level. Approximately 60% to 90% of these fluxes are below 2 m and will not
travel long distances (> a few km) from the emitter. Most receptor model source
contributions are estimated at community representative, urban-scale, monitoring
sites that are specifically selected to be uninfluenced by nearby sources. Most
source-oriented models estimate source contributions averaged over dimensions
of 1 km to 10 km. Transportable dust emissions need to be distinguished from
suspendable dust that is currently used to estimate emissions. Transportable dust
emissions depend on the spatial scale of modeling. For middle-scale models,
current estimates are probably adequate. For neighborhood-, urban-, and
regional-scale modeling, the transportable fraction is likely to vary. Methods to
estimate this variability need to incorporate vertical fluxes and removal processes
due to vertical deposition and horizontal impaction. A first approximation for
transportable dust that moves beyond a few kilometers would eliminate the
horizontal flux within the first 2 m above ground level. This would reduce
current fugitive dust emission estimates by ~75%.

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5. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Previous sections of this report identified differences between emission estimates and
ambient geological contributions, estimated the magnitudes of these differences that could be
caused for different reasons, and evaluated the technical bases for currently applied emission
estimation procedures. This section summarizes the results of this examination and specifies
research projects that can be conducted immediately, in the short term (1 to 2 years), and
over a longer term (2 to 5 years) to improve scientific understanding of and quantitative
estimation of fugitive dust emissions.

One of the methods used to identify potential discrepancies was to compare emissions
estimated for a single state, California, with national inventory estimates for that state. The
methodology is essentially the same for these inventories, but the emission factors, activity
databases, and control measures applied are substantially different. These differences
resulted in California’s urban dust emissions from unpaved roads, paved roads, and
construction being only 60% of those estimated by the national inventory. Much larger
discrepancies were found for specific areas and source types.

5.1 Summary

Subtracting secondary sulfate and nitrate contributions from PM10 prior to estimating
the fugitive dust fraction in source apportionment studies results in a higher fractional
geological contribution. There is still a large discrepancy between the dust fraction in
emissions inventories and the fractional dust contribution to ambient mass concentrations.
Although PM2.5 source apportionment studies are limited, it is likely that discrepancies will
be larger for this size fraction in which geological contributions are much lower. A more
systematic examination of the fugitive dust proportion in ambient samples will be possible
when data become available from EPA’s PM2.5 speciation network at representative
community exposure sites throughout the U.S.

Spatial distributions of annual average PM2.5 soil contributions range from 0.5 to 1
µg/m3 at background sites in the United States as determined by the Interagency Monitoring
of PRotected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network. These should be subtracted from
urban PM10 and PM2.5 fugitive dust contributions prior to determining proportions for
comparison with local emissions inventories. Higher soil contributions on a few days in
Florida and other areas may be caused by long-range transport of Sahara dust that are not
accounted for in inventories. More extensive IMPROVE monitoring in the eastern U.S. will
supplement urban speciated PM2.5 monitoring sites to improve estimates of background
contributions to urban fugitive dust levels. More specific chemical and physical markers
need to be developed and measured in source and receptor samples to distinguish background
from other fugitive dust sources, as well as different types of dust emitters from each other.

Temporal and spatial averaging periods for fugitive dust emissions are not the same
as those for ambient PM2.5 and PM10 measurements. National inventories are specific to
statewide averages and are based on activities averaged over one year or more. State and
local inventories rarely have spatial resolutions better than the size of a county and temporal
resolution of less than a month. These averaging times contrast with intermittent and often

5-1
random events that raise dust into the atmosphere to affect ambient samples that are averaged
over 24-hours or less. Discrepancies between inventory and ambient concentrations are
especially evident in large counties that contain population centers with PM10 or PM2.5
monitors. A comparison between California and national emissions for unpaved roads,
paved roads, and construction at the county level showed substantial differences by county
and by source category, even though the statewide totals were 40% lower than the national
totals. These are probably due to differences in the statewide activities that are allocated to
county in the national inventory compared to the countywide activities that are aggregated to
state in California. Most of the emissions from unpaved roads and windblown dust occur in
non-urban areas far from the monitor, but they are included in the inventory used to assess
source contributions at that monitor. Even within an urban area, neighborhood-scale studies
show that there may be large differences between dust contributions for monitors separated
by a few kilometers. To improve the relationship between emissions and source
contributions, the spatial and temporal resolutions of emissions inventories need to be made
more compatible with the zone of representation and averaging times of PM monitors.

Emission factors for unpaved road and paved road dust emissions are reasonably
consistent from one test to another. Major reductions were found for California when
location-specific values were used for silt content and loadings in place of the default values
used for the national inventory. Construction emission factors used in the national inventory
overestimate construction emissions because they assume that the heavy earthmoving
activities on which they are based occur throughout the duration of the project. California
inventories use construction emission factors derived from the actual processes that engender
those emissions and are an order of magnitude lower than those used for the national
inventory.

National inventory activity levels do not accurately reflect the activities at county or
finer resolutions. National estimates are made statewide, then allocated to counties based on
activity surrogates. There are clear discrepancies between this approach and the California
inventory that builds the statewide inventory from countywide activity estimates. The county
specific data better allocate emissions than the statewide national activity databases. On the
other hand, the national inventory assumes control effectiveness values that are not borne out
by fugitive dust control demonstration studies. There are still large uncertainties and
variabilities in the activity databases for both inventories.

Current emissions inventories are not dynamic. They do not easily adapt to the
changing times and locations of activities that affect ambient concentrations. Dynamic
emission models are needed that seamlessly interact with meteorological, chemical/transport,
and receptor models. Chemical source profiles need to be enhanced with more specific
markers for different fugitive dust source types to verify changes in activity through receptor
measurements. Dynamic databases of the locations and timing of emissions need to be
incorporated into emission estimation methods. The wind erosion portion of the national
inventory represents a relatively small number of individual events that are averaged over a
year. These events should not be included in annual average estimates that are intended to
represent continuous and repetitive processes.

5-2
 There is insufficient accounting for injection heights, deposition losses, and
horizontal impaction losses in dispersion models. The scale and temporal resolution of
emissions inventories is incompatible with the needs of dispersion models. This is the most
evident and documented cause of discrepancies between emission estimates and ambient
source contributions from fugitive dust. Commonly used fugitive dust emission factors
estimate integrated horizontal fluxes from ~1 m to ~10 m above ground level.
Approximately 60% to 90% of these fluxes are below 2 m and will not travel long distances
(> a few km) from the emitter. Most receptor model source contributions are estimated at
community representative monitoring sites that are located for minimal influence from
nearby sources. Most source-oriented models estimate source contributions averaged over
dimensions of 1 km to 10 km. Transportable dust emissions need to be distinguished from
suspendable dust that is currently used to estimate emissions. Transportable dust emissions
depend on the spatial scale of modeling. For middle-scale models, current estimates are
probably adequate. For neighborhood-, urban-, and regional-scale modeling, the
transportable fraction is likely to vary. Methods to estimate this variability need to
incorporate vertical fluxes and removal processes due to vertical deposition and horizontal
impaction. A first approximation for regionally transportable dust (i.e., dust that is likely to
travel more than a few kilometers) could assume that horizontal flux within the first 2 m
above ground level is removed by nearby surfaces. This would reduce current fugitive dust
emission estimates by about 75%.

5.2 Conclusions

• National inventories do not accurately estimate emissions from fugitive dust

sources that affect ambient PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations for a variety of
reasons. Both negative and positive biases in emissions result, but the net effect is
to overestimate emissions from fugitive dust sources relative to those from other
sources in the inventory.

• Suspendable particles are not transportable particles. Available data shows that
~75% (ranging from ~60% to ~90%) of suspended PM10 remains within 1 to 2 m
above ground level. These particles deposit to the surface or impact on nearby
vertical structures within a few minutes after suspension. Although horizontal
fluxes commonly used in empirically-derived emission factors represent the mass
of dust particles suspended from a surface, they do not represent the mass
entrained into the atmosphere and transported over distances of more than a few
kilometers.

• Source and receptor models do not represent the same spatial and temporal scales
as emissions inventories. Better integration with and interaction among emission,
meteorological, chemical/transport, and receptor models is needed. This
interaction should help to identify and reconcile deficiencies in all of the
modeling components.

5-3
 • State and local values for emission factors and activities yield lower emission
estimates, at least for California. Several of these emission factors and activities
should be used in national inventories.

• Emissions inventories treat fugitive dust emissions as continuous processes,

whereas they are intermittent processes that depend on many meteorological and
activity variables. This causes a positive bias in dust emission estimates.

• Few empirical tests are available for the PM2.5 fraction of fugitive dust emission
factors. The extent to which TSP and PM10 emission factors can be scaled to
PM2.5 is uncertain.

• Paved and unpaved road dust emission factors have been found to be of similar
form and magnitude for many independent tests for TSP and PM10. Silt loadings,
silt fractions, and activity levels used in national inventories appear to
overestimate emissions from these sources, at least with respect to California.

• Existing tests for emission factors are biased toward the highest emitters, yet they
are applied to a population of activities that encompasses a wide range of
emission magnitudes. Lower-emitting representatives of a source category are
poorly characterized. This is especially true for construction emission estimates
that characterize the earth moving portion of a project and not the construction
activities.

5.3 Immediate Recommendations for National Emissions Inventory Improvement

• Review construction emission factors and compare them to those used in

California. Consider adopting similar factors for the national inventory.

• Use measurements from previous fugitive dust emission tests to estimate

horizontal dust fluxes above elevations of 2 m. Create separate estimates for
emissions above these heights that can be used for different modeling and
planning purposes. Urban- and regional-scale source or receptor modeling could
use the >2 m above ground level horizontal fluxes. Preliminary estimates given
in this report indicate that >2 m horizontal fluxes are ~25% of total horizontal
fluxes. This approximation needs more scientific justification.

• Conduct countywide comparisons between national inventory and independently

compiled statewide inventories. Use the results of these comparisons to identify
the availability of or need for local information that affect suspendable dust
surface loadings and dust-generating activities.

5.4 Short-Term Recommendations for National Emissions Inventory Improvement

• Create and apply methods to estimate vertical flux, as well as horizontal flux,
from fugitive dust sources and add vertical flux estimates to modeling inventories.

5-4
 Revise the current emission measurement methodology such that vertical fluxes
and horizontal fluxes above selected elevations are incorporated into emission
factors and are reported in inventories.

• Conduct additional emission tests of unpaved roads, paved roads, construction,

and other earth-moving emissions that apply vertical and horizontal flux methods
and are specific to PM2.5 and PM10 particle sizes. These tests should represent a
variety of areas in the eastern and western United States.

• Conduct detailed studies of temporal variability for underlying activities

(including control measure effectiveness) that create dust. Determine
representative temporal profiles for diurnal, weekly, monthly, and annual
emissions for each source type. Determine the extent to which reservoirs of dust
are depleted and incorporate these into emission models.

• Create a modeling framework that integrates emission, meteorological,

chemical/transport, and receptor models. This framework would use the
meteorological model to estimate wind speed, wind direction, and moisture that
affect fugitive dust emission rates. Receptor models applied to ambient data
would be used to estimate source contributions at receptors and to reconcile
emissions with these contributions on an area-specific basis.

5.5 Long-Term Recommendations

• Modify existing air quality modeling software to better represent the vertical flux,
deposition, and transport of dust for different spatial scales. Develop, test, and
apply more realistic middle- and neighborhood-scale mathematical models to
represent dust concentrations at receptors near a variety of dust emitters.

• Develop a complete, GIS-based, emission model that can be applied to

neighborhood, urban, and regional scales. This model would include and update
commonly available activity databases such as land use, roadways, and soil
surveys. It would provide for the use of temporal profiles that allow for daily,
weekly, monthly, and annual emission estimation. The model would also contain
fugitive dust source profiles suitable for receptor model source apportionment and
for creating speciated inventories that can be used for rollback modeling. It
should propagate input data uncertainties, project emissions under different
development scenarios, and allow for alternative emission factors and activity
databases to estimate the same emission rates.

• Compile dust characteristics, including surface loadings, chemical compositions

(source profiles), and suspendable particle content (silt or other) for representative
locations throughout the U.S. Include these in a documented database and apply
them to development of emission estimates. Priorities should be given to airsheds
that operate PM2.5 chemical speciation monitors. A protocol that combines
systematic grab sampling and laboratory analysis with continuous on-road
measurements is needed for this to be practical.

5-5
• Calculate source contributions with receptor models applied to data from the
national PM2.5 speciation network. Reconcile these contributions with fugitive
dust emission estimates from these areas and with background concentrations
from nearby IMPROVE monitoring sites. Use the results of this reconciliation to
further identify and ameliorate emission modeling deficiencies.

• Identify and characterize chemical or physical components in different fugitive

dust sources that allow fugitive dust sub-types to be distinguished from each other
in receptor samples. Apply these characterization methods to receptor samples,
quantify contributions at representative distances from sub-type emitters, and use
the results to improve fugitive dust emission estimation methods.

• Define and conduct experiments that increase understanding of vertical flux,

deposition, and removal by surrounding barriers. Such experiments might include
eddy-correlation micrometeorological measurements of positive and negative
vertical fluxes, balances of airflow through and over tree stands downwind of dust
emitters, and measures of particle rebound and filtration over short vegetation,
such as grass.

• Develop and apply new methods to estimate fugitive dust emissions using real-
time and remote sensing methods. These methods would be used to verify
emissions from the more established and commonly applied methods as well as to
better understand the physical interactions between emissions and the atmosphere.

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