POWERENG 2009
Short-term Load Forecasting using information
obtained from Low Voltage Load Profiles
João M.C. Sousa Luís M.P. Neves
Polytechnic Institute of Leiria Polytechnic Institute of Leiria
School of Technology and Management School of Technology and Management
jcsousa@estg.ipleiria.pt lneves@estg.ipleiria.pt
Authors are also with R&D Institute INESC Coimbra, Portugal
Abstract- Recent researches in load forecasting are quite often
based on the use of neural networks in order to predict a specific
variable (maximum demand, active electric power or hourly
consumption) using past values of the same variable and other
exogenous factors proved to influence the value being predicted.
This work aims to explore different input patterns in neural
networks incorporating information derived from load profiles of
different consumers’ classes.
I. INTRODUCTION
Load forecasting is traditionally viewed as a key issue in
energy planning, being useful to support analysis of eventual
strengthening or expansion of the existing infrastructure,
implementation of a maintenance scheduling, adoption of an
optimized network configuration, valuable to unit commitment
or even helpful to plan the integration of dispersed generation.
With the energy markets liberalization and the subsequent
unbundling of the value chain activities, load forecast gains
even more importance, being essential to the suppliers
interested to buy the necessary energy to provide their
customers needs. Adequate energy transactions can be
scheduled and forecasts below or over the real consumption are
avoided because it could result in increased operational costs
and loss of revenue. In this perspective short-term load
forecasting methods are undoubtedly essential tools for any
supplier guarantee successful market participation.
It is important to describe some factors that can influence the
load demand in different ways. These factors can be split into
two different categories:
- Endogenous variables: related uniquely with past values of
the variable being predicted. The past load values that should
be used as inputs could be found by different ways described
later in Section A.
- Exogenous variables: related with external variables that
can directly or indirectly affect the load behaviour. In this
category, factors such as day type, season, weather, and
electricity price can be pointed as principal exogenous
variables. The usual ways to achieve the relationships between
those variables and load values is through auto-correlation
978-1-4244-2291-3/09/$25.00 ©2009 IEEE 655
Lisbon, Portugal, March 18-20, 2009
Humberto M.M. Jorge
Dep. of Electrical Eng. and Computers
University of Coimbra
hjorge@deec.uc.pt
functions or partial auto-correlation functions (this last one is
often used to relate load with weather variables being
appropriate to separate seasonal effects).
II. NEURAL NETWORKS IN LOAD FORECASTING APPLICATIONS
The use of neural networks (NN) in load forecasting is
actually pointed out as an alternative or, in some cases, a
complement to the traditional time series models. Falling into
the group of artificial intelligence techniques, the NNs have
been explored since the middle 80’s, with tendency to gain
more adepts and proving its accuracy to some sceptic
researchers [1]. Some of the principal advantages often
commented are its ability to model nonlinear and complex
relationships better than traditional linear models, providing an
easy way to deal with multivariate models and exploring an
automatic mapping of the relationships only with the
presentation of the input(s) and output(s) (procedure known as
the learning process). The skill to deal with noisy data is also
commented as an advantage compared with traditional
regressive methods [2], [3].
The disadvantages that can be described are related with the
architecture chosen, normally too large to accommodate a large
number of parameters that have to be estimated based on a
small number of data points (when few historical data is
available). Besides this shortcoming, it is often alleged that
methods are not systematically tested and the results are not
well commented and/or not presented in a clarified way.
The multilayer feed-forward architecture is still the preferred
model in load forecasting applications, and the
back-propagation training process based on the gradient of loss
function with respect to network parameters is the most
common training algorithm, so in this work this choice was
also made in order to validate this methodology comparing
with other studies already presented.
A. Input variables typically used in neural networks architectures
In bibliography it is common to find out some particular
interest in the selection of the input vector in NN architectures
[4], using past load values identified by a justified entropy
analysis (to discriminate the number of contiguous data values)
POWERENG 2009
and/or by a trend concept (to discriminate homologous periods,
e.g. similar days of previous weeks), or using exogenous
factors such as macroeconomic variables, weather and seasonal
variables. Recent approaches are also exploited to ascertain the
most influent variables, e.g. using principal component
analysis [5] to reduce the original input space to several
characteristic variables or using support vector machines, an
alternative to neural networks, that implements a structural risk
minimization principle in regression thematic [6].
There are some causes for unexpected and sudden load
fluctuation, as the presence of special days like holidays (and
normal days surrounding holidays) or recording failures. These
anomalous load periods and some forms to minimize
associated load forecasts deviations are well described in some
works [7], [8], [9], [10]. The holidays can be treated imposing
a priori that input patterns used to estimate the demand in
those days must be affected by a reduction factor. Other
suggestion is a binary variable inclusion in input vector, in
order to give to the NN a clear distinction between normal and
special days. This effect brings two direct advantages: the NN
notes that holidays’ forecasts are attenuated (reflecting less
demand in these special days) and forecasts on normal days
after the holidays should not depend blindly on holidays’ data.
Ref. [9] and [10] proposes an unsupervised stage providing a
classification of the historical data with Kohonen Self
Organizing Maps, and afterwards this prior classification leads
to separate learning processes of NNs to forecast future
demand. This supervised stage performs NN training in data
previously separated (typically putting in evidence the
occurrence of special days) rather than on the entire data set.
The present work aims to explore how can be interpreted the
effect of integrate load profiles for different consumers classes
in load forecasting issues and how this assumption can be
helpful to deal with forecasting problematic triggered by
special days.
III. CONSUMERS CHARACTERIZATION – LOAD PROFILING
The energy market liberalization effectively brings new and
different kind of challenges to distribution and retail
companies. In competitive markets it is actually mandatory the
detailed knowledge of how the electric energy is hourly
distributed (quarter-hourly distributed under Portuguese
legislation) to different consumers groups. According to the
new policies adopted by energy markets, all customers should
have access to the retail market, even the small customers who
are not subjected to hourly based load measurements. To
enable that participation, the load profiling is a way to obtain
typical load shapes adjusted to specific groups of consumers.
The load profiles elaboration presupposes a monitoring stage
of a representative sample of consumers through a temporarily
installation of hourly metering systems.
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Lisbon, Portugal, March 18-20, 2009
The consequent classes’ segmentation can be done following
different strategies:
- The most accurate approach is the use of clustering
algorithms, such as fuzzy c-means or competitive neural
networks [11]. It results in load profiles for each class, and the
clustering algorithm ensures homogenous groups of consumers
(in respect of energy distribution for a specific period) and also
relevant differences between groups formed. In load profiling
issues, it is assumed that the use of clustering algorithms is the
ideal way to segment ways of electric usage, however
afterwards it is essential to allocate those profile to consumers
out of sample following specific commercial or activity sector
attributes, but in most cases this task is not straightforward
[12];
- Use of profiles for each activity sector (residential,
commercial, industrial, services, …) [13];
- Use of load profiles with a segmentation based on
commercial information.
The distribution companies can use this detailed information
to implement an adequate load management and it can also
help to set the electric network access tariffs. On the other
hand, the retail companies may make use of this information to
establish contracts with different kinds of customers, practicing
a fair energy price with an associated trade profit and also offer
added-value services adjustable to each customer group. The
settlement between distributors and suppliers (being
mandatory) becomes possible as the total energy record
available in the traditional meters can be distributed for
different interval periods.
A. Load Forecasting and Load Profiling
It was already assumed that load forecasting and load
profiling are two subjects that have been treated independently,
however from a manager point of view this separation can be
irrelevant and even unnecessary [14]. The load profiling is
actually viewed as a way to enable the participation of the
whole set of consumers in liberalized markets, and is
particularly dedicated to small consumers that have not
installed hourly metering systems. Load profiling simply used
as billing purposes permit the settlement between distribution
operator and suppliers in the market, based on the typical
distribution of energy, given by load profiles, during the
settlement period. Once the consumer’s usage of electricity is
estimated in load profiles, this knowledge could be transposed
to load forecasting issues (based on a bottom-up approach).
IV. CASE STUDY DESCRIPTION
This study uses consumption data collected from a sample of
1147 Low Voltage (LV) consumers (with rms voltage between
phases below or equal to 1 kV) with an integration period of 15
POWERENG 2009 Lisbon, Portugal, March 18-20, 2009

minutes. Besides this consumption data, a detailed commercial - in the presence of a holiday, the associated profile
database is available for all consumers composing the sample. assumes a profile similar to a Sunday.
A random aggregation of a fixed number of 740 contributors’
consumers leads to an accumulated load diagram composition The reason to choose these load profiles approved by
that must be viewed as a reproduction of a public substation legislation lies in its availability, as it is made public by the
typical load diagram. The electricity consumers monitoring independent regulator (before the inclusion of weather and
was implemented in scope of a national project aiming to seasonal effects – approved for the whole civil year) and by the
establish load profiles and create all necessary and mandatory transmission operator (after the inclusion of seasonal and
conditions to permit an open market. These audits were weather effects).
available from 23-Mar-2003 until 23-Apr-2007, but the period Being proved that the methodology is successful with this
effectively considered was from 16-Mar-2004 until simpler assumption, it is expected that the adoption of the
16-Mar-2006 (two complete years) because in this temporal alternative based on a more accurate consumer’s segmentation,
horizon the consumption data was quite stable for the with different load profiles associated, would enhance the
considered consumers without significant data error detections. effectiveness of the strategy adopted.
The load profiles considered were those ones approved in
the Portuguese legislation. Load profiling in Portugal uses a A. Reconstruction of load diagram based on load profiles
classification of LV consumers based on contracted power and The total consumption estimated for the
annual energy consumption (see Table I), respecting the consumers’ aggregation, the load profiles for different
principle of non-discrimination on the basis of energy use, consumer classes as well as the consumption distribution by
imposed by the local regulatory authority. classes (in percentage) can be used to reconstruct a load
diagram.
TABLE I 4
DESCRIPTION OF LOW VOLTAGE CLASSES
ADOPTED BY PORTUGUESE LEGISLATION
¦LP class _ i at hour h ⋅ CPclass _i at hour h
(1)
LDreconstructed at hour h = Wt ⋅ i =1
4
i = 1,..,4
¦¦LP
Class
number
Class Class Description class _ i at hour h ⋅ CPclass _i at hour h
h i =1
1 Special Low Voltage Contracted Power > 41,4 kW
with:
Normal Low Voltage Contracted Power > 13, 8 kVA but
2
– Class A also Contracted Power ≤ 41,4 kW LDreconstructed – reconstructed load diagram;
Normal Low Voltage Contracted Power ≤ 13,8 kVA and
Wt – total consumption estimated;
3 LPi – load profile for class i ;
– Class B Annual Consumption > 7140 kWh
Normal Low Voltage Contracted Power ≤ 13,8 kVA and CPi – consumption percentage of class i;
4
– Class C Annual Consumption ≤ 7140 kWh h – each considered hour [between hour 0 of
Low Voltage – RMS Voltage between phases ≤ 1 kV
30-Mar-2004 until hour 23 of 16-Mar-2006].

The load profiles for those low voltage classes can be It is important to note that consumption distribution through
examined in detail in Fig. 1. different classes is possible because for each hour a description
of the contributors’ consumers was analysed and confronted
0,05
0,05 with the commercial database. The consumption distribution
0,04
0,04
for the different classes during the considered period is
P (p.u.)

0,03 analysed in Fig. 2.

0,03
0,02
0,02 70%
0,01
60%
0,01
0,00 50%
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
40%
Special Low Voltage Normal Low Voltage - Profile A
Normal Low Voltage - Profile B Normal Low Voltage - Profile C 30%

Fig. 1. Low Voltage load profiles approved by the Portuguese Legislation 20%

(based on one complete week of October 2005) 10%

0%
16-Jun-04

16-Jun-05
16-Dez-04

16-Dez-05
16-Mar-04

16-Set-04

16-Mar-05

16-Set-05

16-Mar-06

The profiles are prepared in a monthly basis, so it is

expected that during each month:
Special Low Voltage Normal Low Voltage - C lass A

- all workdays assume a similar load shape; Normal Low Voltage - Class B Normal Low Voltage - C lass C

- saturdays and sundays have particular profiles and also Fig. 2. Distribution of total consumption through different classes
different from each other; (based on commercial database)

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POWERENG 2009 Lisbon, Portugal, March 18-20, 2009

In Fig. 3 is presented a comparison between the real load The alternative model uses a complementary input vector
diagram and the reconstructed load diagram obtained for the using information derived from load profiles, or in other
same period. The information obtained from reconstructed load words, the reconstructed load diagram estimated for 24 hours
diagram will be then analysed in forecasting examples with of the day being predicted. It expands the input vector to 96
NNs. data points, so the hidden layer chosen incorporates 15
neurons. Fig. 5 exposes the new model that uses the same
4500
4000 transfer functions presented previously.
3500
3000 Load values for the 24 hours of the
P (kW)

2500 last day available (24 inputs – day d-2)

2000
1500 Model II
1000 Load values for the 24 hours of the
same weekday in the previous week 1 hidden layer
500
(24 inputs – day d-7) with 15 neurons
0
16-03-2004

16-05-2004

16-09-2004
16-07-2004

16-11-2004

16-01-2005

16-03-2005

16-05-2005

16-07-2005

16-09-2005

16-11-2005

16-01-2006

16-03-2006
Transfer functions:
Load values for the 24 hours of
the same weekday two weeks Input Layer – Hidden Layer Load values for the 24 hours
before (24 inputs – day d-14) ‘Tansig’ the day being predicted
(24 outputs – day d)
Real Load Diagram Reconstructed Load Diagram
Load values estimated by the Hidden Layer – Output Layer
reconstructed load diagram ‘Purelin’
Fig. 3. Comparison between real and reconstructed load diagrams (24 inputs – day d)
during the considered period

Fig. 5. Model II for NN architecture

B. Comparison between two different neural network architectures

to forecast next day load values Some forecasting errors are presented to compare both
methodologies.
In order to validate the proposed methodology, two
scenarios were tested to predict the active power values for the - Mean Percentage Error (MPE)
24 hours of the following day. In both scenarios it was
considered: § Real Load Valueh − Forecasted Load Valueh ·
¦¨ Real Load Valueh
¸
- a training sample used to train the network – from MPE (%) =
h © ¹ (2)
30-Mar-2004 to 31-Dez-2005; Number of hours considered

- a testing sample used to validate the methodology and to

adjust the NN architecture by engineering judgement – from - Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
1-Jan-2006 to 16-Mar-2006.

The input and outputs were normalized in order to have zero § Real Load Valueh − Forecasted Load Valueh ·
mean and a unitary variance. In that way the influence of ¦¨¨ Real Load Valueh
¸
¸
MAPE (%) =
h
© ¹ (3)
different scales are attenuated. The first model uses 72 inputs,
Number of hours considered
based on hourly load values of the last day available, of the
same weekday of previous week and same weekday two weeks
before. After some experiments, it was considered one hidden - Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE)
layer with 10 neurons, with a tansig transfer function between
input and hidden layer (to model non-linear relationships) and 2
a purelin transfer function between hidden and output layers. § Real Load Valueh − Forecasted Load Valueh ·
The model can be briefly analysed in Fig. 4.
¦¨ Real Load Valueh
¸
RMSE (%) =
h © ¹ (4)
Number of hours considered
Load values for the 24 hours of the
last day available (24 inputs – day d-2)

Model I

Load values for the 24 hours of the

1 hidden layer - Mean Absolute Deviation
with 10 neurons
same weekday in the previous week
(24 inputs – day d-7) Transfer functions:
§ ¦ ( Re al Load Valueh − Forecasted Load Valueh ) ·
Input Layer – Hidden Layer Load values for the 24 hours of ¨ h ¸
‘Tansig’ the day being predicted ¨ Number of hours considered ¸
(24 outputs – day d) ¨ ¸
Load values for the 24 hours of
Hidden Layer – Output Layer MAD (%) = © ¹ (5)
¦
the same weekday two weeks
before (24 inputs – day d-14) ‘Purelin’ § Re al Load Valueh ·
¨ h ¸
¨ Number of hours considered ¸
¨ ¸
© ¹
Fig. 4. Model I for Neural Network Architecture

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POWERENG 2009 Lisbon, Portugal, March 18-20, 2009

Some of the results found are described in Table II, being It is clearly evident that model II has special skills to lead
useful to compare the models created. with atypical days occurrences. In addition a load diagrams
TABLE II comparison is also presented in Fig. 7.
COMPARISON BETWEEN MODELS I AND II 3500
DIFFERENT ERROR MEASURES IDENTIFIED FOR TRAINING AND TESTING DATA 3000
Error
MSE MAPE RMSE MAD 2500
measures
2000

P (kW)
Training
-0.012% 7.06% 11.07% 7.68%
Data 1500
Model I
Testing 1000
3.78% 10.97% 14.99% 12.58%
Data
500
Training
0.26% 3.81% 6.20% 3.78% 0
Data

3-10-05

4-10-05

5-10-05

6-10-05

7-10-05

8-10-05

Model II
Testing
1.45%
Data
It can be concluded that Model II significantly reduces the
error measures in training and testing periods. It must be
pointed out that during the testing phase the network
parameters were not adapted, so during the 75 days of 2006 the
NN was simply simulated with parameters already trained
during the training phase. One important remark is that RMSE
reduces significantly in Model II, and being the error measure
that penalizes the individual high errors, it is possible to
speculate that sudden load fluctuations typical from special
days are better estimated in Model II. It is effectively expected
as the load profiles approved already include a particular
treatment of those special days. To analyse this assumption in
more detail, a dedicated comparison between normal and
special days was followed for both models (see Fig. 6).
MODEL I
Mean Absolute Percentage Error
9-10-05
7.23% 10.28% 6.95%
Real Load Diagram
Forecasted Load Diagram (Model I)
Forecasted Load Diagram (Model II)
Fig. 7. Forecasting one week with a special day in Portugal using
Models I and II - 5- Oct-2005 corresponds to a Wednesday
V. CONCLUSIONS
This work intends to analyse the effect of integrate
information obtained from available load profiles to load
forecasting techniques based on neural networks. The detailed
consumers’ behaviour knowledge could be in that way used to
forecast future global load demand. Without the intention to be
compared with other load forecasting works already discussed,
this case study has some particularities such as the global load
diagram that was obtained from a LV consumers’ aggregation.
The load profiling methodology adopted is also a questionable
approximation, knowing that classes’ segmentation based on
clustering methods could be more accurate. Anyway, even with

20% those assumptions and the results presented, the method still
represents a promising technique in load forecasting.
15%
It is recognized that the viability of the technique strongly
(MAPE)

10% depends on adequate consumer segmentation, load profiles

accuracy representing each class, proper selection of neural
5% network input vector, lead time to predict (one hour, one day,
one week,…) and updated commercial information to
0%
Special Days Normal Days characterize the individual contributions of a global load
diagram.
Distinct MAPE MAPE_without distinction (weighted average)

MODEL II REFERENCES
Mean Absolute Percentage Error

7%
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(MAPE)

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