CLD Cases Assignment Mid-Terms

OLEH :
Nama : YOLA LISTA VALENTINA
NPM : 2006544840
Mata Kuliah : Berpikir Sistem

UNIVERSITAS INDONESIA
DEPARTEMEN TEKNIK INDUSTRI
TA 2020/2021
 Fish Bank Model
Below you find a description of a very simple fisheries model, also known as the
basic Fish Banks model. The two main variables in a fisheries model are fish and ships.
Suppose the number of fish only increases through the fish hatch rate and decreases both
through the fish death rate and the total catch per year. Suppose that the fish hatch rate
equals the fish times the hatch fraction. The fish death rate is equal to the death fraction
times the fish.
The death fraction is a function of the carrying capacity and the number of Fish. The
total catch per year depends on the number of ships and the annual catch per ship which is a
function of the fish density. The density is defined as the amount of fish in the fishing area
divided by the area.
Suppose that the number of Ships increases via the ship building rate which is a
function of the investment costs per ship, annual profits and fraction reinvested. The annual
profits are calculated as the revenues minus the costs. Assume that the revenues equal the
total catch per year times the fish price and that the costs equal the unit ship operating costs
times the number of ships.
 Generic Steps
1. Identifikasi (Varibel atau Konstan)
Nomer Variabel Konstan
1 Jumlah Ikan 1. Area
2 Penetasan Ikan
3 Kematian Ikan
4 Jumlah Tangkapan Per Tahun
5 Jumlah Kapal
6 Kepadatan Ikan
7 Tarif Pembangunan Kapal
8 Tangkapan Tahunan Per Kapal
9 Keuntungan Tahunan
10 Pendapatan
11 Biaya
12 Harga Ikan
13 Biaya Operasional Unit Kapal
14 Fraksi Kematian
15 Fraksi Penetasan
16 Biaya Investasi Per Kapal
17 Investasi keuntungan
2. Identifikasi Hubungan antara 2 variabel
Sebab Notasi Akibat
Tingkat penetasan + Jumlah Ikan
Tingkat kematian - Jumlah ikan
Tangkapan per tahun + Jumlah ikan
Fraksi Penetasan + Tingkat penetasan
Fraksi kematian + Tingkat kematian
Jumlah kapal + tangkapan per tahun
Tangkapan tahunan per kapal + tangkapan per tahun
Tangkapan tahunan per kapal + Kepadatan Ikan
Jumlah Ikan di area + Kepadatan Ikan
Tariff pembangunan kapal - Jumlah kapal
Tariff pembangunan kapal + Biaya investasi per kapal
Keuntungan tahunan + Investasi keuntungan
Biaya - Keuntungan tahunan
Pendapatan + Keuntungan tahunan
Tangkapan per tahun + Pendapatan
Harga ikan + Pendapatan
Biaya operasional per unit kapal + Biaya
Jumlah kapal + Biaya

 The List Extension Method

 The List Extension Method to CLD

Picture 1. Causal Loop Diagram of Fish Bank

 Berikut beberapa hal yang dapat dipelajari dari CLD Fish Bank diatas, yaitu :
1. Loop R1 dan B1 (Populasi Ikan ) : Populasi adalah kelompok ikan yang hidup di
daerah tertentu pada waktu tertentu, se-dangkan Jumlah Ikan adalah menggambarkan
kelompok ikan yang menempati perairan tertentu dan mempu-nyai pola migrasi, serta
daerah pemisahan. Jumlah ikan menggambarkan popolasi ikan berdasarkan tingkat
kematian dan tingkat penetasan yang dikelompokkan berdasarkan fraksi penetasan
dan fraksi kematian. Dengan tingkat penetasan yang positif maka semakin
meningkatkan juga jumlah ikan, namun sebaliknya tingkat kematian yang positif
mengakibatkan semakin menurunnya jumlah ikan. Tingkat kematian dan tingkat
penetasan dapat digolongkan melalui fraksi kematian dan fraksi penetasan
“Tingkat penetasan dan tingkat kematian menjadi hubungan yang penting terhadap
jumlah Ikan “
2. Loop R2 (Jumlah tangkapan pertahun) : Potensi jumlah tangkapan ikan pertahun
dipengaruhi oleh jumlah kapal dan tangkapan tahunan per kapal. Semakin meningkat
jumlah kapal, semakin meningkat pula jumlah tangkapan tahunan perkapal sehingga
secara menyeluruh mengakibatkan peningkatan potensi jumlah tangkapan ikan
pertahun.
3. Loop R3 (Biaya Operasional) : Biaya operasional adalah semua biaya yang
dikeluarkan dalam pengoperasian kapal, antara lain biaya operasi langsung yaitu
biaya yang berkaitan langsung dengan produksi jasa yang dihasilkan. Sedangkan
biaya operasional tidak langsung yaitu biaya yang secara tidak langsung berhubungan
dengan produk jasa yang dihasilkan.
Semakin tinggi biaya operasional kapal maka semakin tinggi biaya yang mencakup
biaya investasi per kapal, tarif pembangunan kapal dan juga jumlah kapal.
4. Loop R4 (Tingkat Pendapatan) : Tingkat pendapatan dipengaruhi oleh harga ikan,
Biaya dan tangkapan tahunan perkapal. Harga ikan berpengaruh secara positif atau
negative sesuai keadaan yang mempengaruhi yaitu keadaan kepadatan ikan.
5. Loop B2 (Laju Harga Ikan) : Semakin tinggi jumlah ikan di area maka semakin tinggi
kepadatan ikan, semakin tinggi kepadatan ikan maka semakin rendah harga ikan
6. Loop B3 (Kepadatan Ikan) : Peningkatan kepadatan akan diikuti dengan penurunan
pertumbuhan sehingga pada kepadatan tertentu pertumbuhan akan terhenti. Kepadatan
ikan dipengaruhi oleh jumlah ikan di area dan tangkapan tahunan per kapal,
kepadatan ikan sendiri mempengaruhi harga ikan Untuk memperoleh hasil yang
 optimal, peningkatan kepadatan harus juga diikuti dengan peningkatan daya dukung
lingkungan dan pertumbuhan ikan.
7. Loop B4 (Laju keuntungan tahunan) : Pendapatan dan biaya bergerak secara bertolak
belakang terhadap pengaruhnya terhadap keuntungan tahunan. Semakin tinggi
keuntungan tahunan maka semakin tinggi investasi keuntungan yang dilakukan.

 In case of undesirable conclusions, change the diagrams to turn undesirable into desirable.
1. Kesimpulan yang tidak diinginkan pada model penyimpanan ikan ini yaitu semakin
menipis potensi ikan hingga mencapai batas minimum kebutuhan ketersediaan ikan.
Untuk mengatasi keadaan yang tidak diinginkan dibutuhkan pengendalian dengan
menambahkan beberapa variabel yaitu jumlah tangkapan yang diperbolehkan,
pengelolaan pertumbuhan ikan dan daya dukung lingkungan.
2. Variabel tambahan “Jumlah tangkapan yang diperbolehkan” : Guna menjaga
keberlanjutan stok ikan maka dibutuhkan jumlah tangkapan yang diperbolehkan
(JTB). Dengan penambahan variabel ini dibutuhkan penghubung sebagai
penyeimbang (loop B5) yaitu tangkapan tahunan perkapal dan tangkapan pertahun
sehingga dapat mempengaruhi secara positif Jumlah ikan sebagai langkah menjaga
ketersediaan ikan.
3. Variabel tambahan “pertumbuhan ikan” : pengelolaan pertumbuhan (Loop B6)
dengan dikelolanya secara baik pertumbuhan ikan akan meningkatkan tingkat
penetasan ikan dan menjaga keseimbangan fraksi penetasan.
4. Variabel tambahan “daya dukung lingkungan” : daya dukung lingkungan (Loop B7)
berhubungan juga dengan pertumbuhan ikan dan fraksi kematian sehingga dapat
dilakukan pengendalian yang dapat mempengaruhi secara positif dan keberlanjutan
ketersediaan ikan.
Picture 2. Causal Loop Diagram of Fish Bank with Desirable Conclusion
 Housing Policies

Real estate demand in densely populated urban areas with sufficient land to extend is often rather
price sensitive: declining property prices for instance caused by relative oversupply, i.e. real
supply exceeding real estate demand, results in rapid demand rises. Construction companies often
initiate new projects based on the demand for properties. Increased demand leads to new projects
being initiated. Real estate construction projects are often completed with relatively long delays
of about 2-3 years. Many construction companies tend to operate in these areas. And they are
mostly unaware or do not keep track of construction projects in.
1. Make a CLD of this description.
2. What kind of dynamics would you expect to see in property prices?
3. What would be an adequate strategy of a smart construction company?
1. Causal Loop Diagram Of Housing Policies

Picture 1. Causal Loop Diagram of House Policies

2. What kind of dynamics would you expect to see in property prices ?
3.5

3 3

Economic Dynamics
2.5

2 2
1.5

1 1
0.5 0.5
0
Price 1 Price 2 Price 3 Price 4
Property Price

 Property price dynamics should be exponential with economic dynamics growth by

controlling the availability of property, which can be done by conducting market surveys
or demand surveys. market surveys are conducted with a focus on location, population,
needs, income and lifestyle.
 In the dimension of location a person will consider a suitable place to live with Its stage
and its life cycle, location in this context are closely related to distance from work.
 The property dimension relates to the aspirations of an individual or a group of people
regarding the type and type of house desired according to their income and life cycle. In
contrast to the dimension of the life cycle, this discusses the stages a person begins to
take in their independent life, where all their necessities of life are borne by their own
income. The income dimension is related to the size of a person's income which is
multiplied by the length of stay in a city
3. What would be an adequate strategy of a smart construction company?
 Construction companies in carrying out activities his business should have a useful
strategy for maintain and develop their business. Price and the quality of the resulting
project is a factor which must be considered. Besides that, the construction company also
continues to maintain its punctuality in project work so that consumers do not feel
disappointed and gave his trust to the company.
 Players in the construction industry must master technology 4.0 as a way to become a
good competency medium and be able to compete with related industry players in the
regional or global area.
 Material supplier who is able to provide prices which is lower than other suppliers
however proven quality and using tools heavy in project work. by controlling the
supplier's price pricelist, choose use a supplier with a lower price. This matter certainly
will ease the operational burden and can provide affordable prices without compromising
profit the company wants. Besides, use human resources who are competent in their
fields of course will create a project produced by the company be quality and in
accordance with the wishes consumer.
Picture 2. Causal Loop Diagram of House Policies with Price Dynamics and Smart Construction Company
 A Traditional Bank Run

A traditional bank run starts when (correct or incorrect) information about potential
problems at a bank leads to fear of a bank failure. More fear leads to a higher tendency to
withdraw personal savings. An increase of withdrawals leads to a decrease of the perceived
solvency of the bank which leads to more fear of a bank failure. An increase of withdrawals also
leads to a decrease of liquid bank reserves and hence to a lower liquidity of the bank. Banks then
need to turn more and more illiquid assets into liquid assets (money) to have sufficient liquid
assets to pay for (future) withdrawals. Due to the speed required to liquidate illiquid assets, huge
losses are often made, resulting in a reduction of the solvency of the bank. The lower the
solvency of the bank, the lower the perceived solvency of the bank, which leads to more fear of a
bank failure. Weak or uncertain economic conditions result in more fear and lower perceived
solvency.
1. Make a causal loop diagram of this description. This causal loop diagram should be similar to
the ones described in (Richardson 1991; MacDonald 2002). How many feedback loops are
there? What is their polarity?

Picture 1. Causal Loop Diagram of Traditional Bank Run

  Feedback loops R1 : More fear leads to a higher tendency to withdraw personal savings.
An increase of withdrawals leads to a decrease of the perceived solvency of the bank
which leads to more fear of a bank failure.
 Feedback loops B1 : An increase of withdrawals also leads to a decrease of liquid bank
reserves and hence to a lower liquidity of the bank. Banks then need to turn more and
more illiquid assets into liquid assets (money) to have sufficient liquid assets to pay for
(future) withdrawals.
 Feedback loops B2 : An increase of withdrawals also leads to a decrease of liquid bank
reserves and hence to a lower liquidity of the bank. Due to the speed required to liquidate
illiquid assets, huge losses are often made, resulting in a reduction of the solvency of the
bank. The lower the solvency of the bank, the lower the perceived solvency of the bank.
2. What are the possible systems behaviors suggested by this CLD?
Shows indeed that the positive liquidity and solvency loops make that the likelihood of a
bank failure keeps on increasing –unless actively stopped– until the bank collapses. This
could have been expected given the fact that revenues and profits are not generated or added
to the asset base here: in this version there is only a reinforcing drain without replenishment.

Picture 2. Systems Behaviors Suggested

 Energy Transitions

 Energy Transitions are dynamically complex: they are governed by many feedback
effects and long delays. Energy transitions are also deeply uncertain: major uncertainties
–related to individuals, particular technologies, the entire system, and hence for
policy/decision makers in the energy field– are omnipresent. Energy technologies face
many uncertainties and need to overcome many hurdles, even before becoming
commercially viable and entering the energy technologies battlefield.
 One of these hurdles is the so-called ‘valley of death’. That is, quite often, entrepreneurs
and technology developers bring a new technology to the pre-commercial stage, but due
to a lack of investments, it does not survive the phase between (subsidized)
entrepreneurial technology development and large-scale commercial take-off in which
subsidies are (often) forbidden. It is hard to predict which promising technologies will
actually make it, and hence, which might possibly become the technologies of the future.
 Many self-reinforcing uncertainties influence perceived certainty related to each new
technology. The lower the perceived certainty, the higher the perceived risk and the lower
the entrepreneurial willingness to acquire knowledge/experiment/lobby/. . . in order to
bring a technology to the point where it would be considered a good investment.
Resources for actions to reduce uncertainty may actually help to take this hurdle and may
lead to more perceived certainty and raise perceptions about the potential success of the
technology. This in turn reinforces (intrinsic) entrepreneurial motivation, resulting in
more willingness to act. A reduction of the perceived risk and an increase of the
entrepreneurial motivation are the preconditions to further the state of development and
increase the willingness to invest of entrepreneurs and risk-taking energy companies,
which in turn leads to more real investments, contributing to the success of the
technology, reinforcing the willingness to invest, etc.
Picture 1. CLD of the Pre-Battlefield Struggle
1. Make a CLD of the pre-battlefield struggle. How many loops are there? What is their
polarity? What would be appropriate names?
A reduction of the perceived risk and an increase of the entrepreneurial motivation are the
preconditions to (further the state of development and) increase the willingness of
entrepreneurs and risk-taking energy companies to invest, which then leads to (more) real
investments, contributing to the technology’s success, reinforcing the willingness to invest.
in order to bring a technology to the energy technologies battlefield, the reinforcing activity-
certainty loop needs to be activated first, after which the reinforcing action-motivation loop
needs to kick in, activating the reinforcing investment-motivation loop, which should lead to
the activation of the reinforcing investment-certainty loop. Only then may the technology
reach the technologies battlefield.
Entrepreneurs and technology developers bring a new technology to the precommercial
stage, but due to a lack of investments, it does not survive this so-called ‘valley of death’ –
the phase between (subsidized) entrepreneurial technology development and large-scale
commercial take-off in which subsidies are (often) forbidden. It is hard to predict which
promising technologies will actually make it, and hence, which might possibly become the
technologies of the future.
1. Research and development input loop (B1)
2. Reinforcing investment - motivation loop (R1)
3. Reinforcing action – motivation loop (R2)
4. Reinforcing activity-certainly loop (R3)
5. Reinforcing investment certainly loop (R4)
6. Reinforcing Risk – Policies loop (R5)
7. Reinforcing Policies –renewable loop (R6)
2. What policy recommendations could be derived from this CLD?
a. Support package comprises energy support
b. Feed-in tariff to compensate for the difference in costs alternative fuels
c. Feed-in tariff for
d. Electricity tariffs which vary hour by hour
e. Market-based feed-in tariff scheme
f. Investments related to the use of pellets in renovated buildings will be subsidized
with investment
g. Small hydropower is promoted by means of the existing investment support
scheme
h. Market-based feed-in tariff scheme funded from the state budget
i. After surviving the valley of death, technologies enter –from a technologies point
of view– the technology battle field. The outcomes of the battle is also uncertain
and impossible to predict. But even though the outcomes of the energy
technologies battle may be unpredictable, the plausible dynamics may be
‘explorable’ by explicitly focussing on these uncertainties.
j. the technology reach the technologies battlefield. The Causal Loop Diagram points
out crucial prerequisites to get there: (i) entrepreneurs need to be intrinsically
motivated; (ii) (perceived) uncertainties and risks need to be reduced; (iii)
sufficient resources for actions to reduce uncertainties need to be (made) available;
(iv) administrative/bureaucratic delays need to be avoided or kept to a minimum;
(v) sufficient resources for initial investments need to be (made) available.