1.

Fish Bank Model

Below you find a description of a very simple fisheries model, also known as the basic Fish
Banks model. The two main variables in a fisheries model are fish and ships. Suppose the
number of fish only increases through the fish hatch rate and decreases both through the fish
death rate and the total catch per year. Suppose that the fish hatch rate equals the fish times
the hatch fraction. The fish death rate is equal to the death fraction times the fish. The death
fraction is a function of the carrying capacity and the number of Fish. The total catch per year
depends on the number of ships and the annual catch per ship which is a function of the fish
density. The density is defined as the amount of fish in the fishing area divided by the area.
Suppose that the number of Ships increases via the ship building rate which is a function of
the investment costs per ship, annual profits and fraction reinvested. The annual profits are
calculated as the revenues minus the costs. Assume that the revenues equal the total catch
per year times the fish price and that the costs equal the unit ship operating costs times the
number of ships.

• Make a CLD of this model. What can be learned from it?

• In case of undesirable conclusions, change the diagrams to turn undesirable into desirable

Variable of Fish Bank Models:

*) variable yang di highlight merupakan konstanta

Number of fish Number of ships

Fish hatch rate Annual catch per ship
Fish death rate Fish density
Total catch per year Fishing area
Hatch fraction Ship building rate
Death fraction Investment costs per ship
Revenues Annual profits
Cost Fraction reinvested
Ship operating costs Fish prices
Carrying capacity
Variable Linkage:
Number of fish + Fish hatch rate
Number of fish - Fish death rate
Number of fish + Total catch per year
Number of fish + Fish density
Fish hatch rate + Hatch fraction
Fish death rate + Death fraction
Total catch per year + Number of ships
Total catch per year + Fish density
Area + Fish density
Number of ships + Ship building rate
Annual profits + Revenue
Revenue + Total catch per year
Costs + Number of ships
Costs - Annual profit
Annual profit + Ships building rate
Fish prices + Revenues
Ships operational cost + Costs
 CLD Fish Bank Model

Berdasarkan CLD Case Fish Bank Model, terdapat 3 loop Balancing dan 2 Loop Reinforcing
Reinforcing 1 (R1): Jumlah fraksi penetasan ikan akan menambah kelahiran ikan dan
menambah jumlah ikan. Dimana jumlah ikan ini akan menambah jumlah kelahiran ikan
Reinforcing 2 (R2): Jumlah penangkapan ikan akan menambahkan pendapatan dan
menambah profit tahunan, Dimana profit yang bertambah dapat menambah jumlah
pembuatan kapal dan semakin banyak jumlah kapal akan menambah jumlah penangkapan
ikan dan menambah pendapatan
Balancing 1 (B1): Persentase kematian ikan akan mengurangi jumlah ikan, Dimana akan
menambah dead fraction dan meningkatkan rate kematian ikan
Balancing 2 (B2): Total penangkapan ikan per tahun akan mengurangi jumlah ikan dan akan
mempengaruhi kepadatan populasi ikan dan jumlah penangkapan ikan setiap tahun dan total
penangkapan per tahun
Balancing 3 (B3): Annual profit akan bertambah seiring meningkatnya pendapatan, tetapi
diseimbangkan dengan ada nya cost peningkatan jumlah produksi kapal dan jumlah kapal

What can learn:

Dari model ini dapat terlihat bahwa untuk memaksimalkan keuntungan dapat dilakukan
dengan menambah jumlah penangkapan. Tetapi untuk menjaga kelangsungan proses
penangkapan ini harus dijaga juga terkait dengan populasi ikan supaya tidak terjadi over
fishing yang mengakibatkan langka nya ikan di area penangkapan yang berakibat pada
menurunnya jumlah tangkapan dan akan membuat menurunnya pendapatan
2. Housing Policy
Real estate demand in densely populated urban areas with sufficient land to extend is often
rather price sensitive: declining property prices for instance caused by relative oversupply, i.e.
real supply exceeding real estate demand, results in rapid demand rises. Construction
companies often initiate new projects based on the demand for properties. Increased demand
leads to new projects being initiated. Real estate construction projects are often completed
with relatively long delays of about 2-3 years. Many construction companies tend to operate in
these areas. And they are mostly unaware or do not keep track of construction projects in

1. Make a CLD of this description.

2. What kind of dynamics would you expect to see in property prices?
3. What would be an adequate strategy of a smart construction company?

Variable of Models:
*) variable yang di highlight merupakan konstanta
Real supply Ratio

Price

Real Estate Demand

New Project Initiated

Project Real Estate Finish

Variable Linkage:
Real supply Ratio - Price

Price - Property Demand

Real Estate Demand + New Project Initiated

New Project Initiated + Project Real Estate Finish

Project Real Estate Finish + Real supply Ratio

1. CLD Housing Policy

 + Real Supply
Ratio
-
+ Project Real -
B1
Estate Finish Price
R1
+
Other -
Delay
company Real Estate +
project Demand
New + Population
Project Urban area
Initiated

2. Dynamic in property prices

Supply dan demand dalam harga property akan mempengaruhi harga. Harga akan meningkat
ketika jumlah permintaan lebih banyak dibandingkan dengan jumlah rumah yang tersedia.
Jumlah proyek pembuatan perumahan akan dipengaruhi oleh permintaan terhadap rumah.
Dan permintaan akan dipengaruhi oleh jumlah populasi di urban area.

3. What would be an adequate strategy of a smart construction company?

Strategy bagi perusahaan yang cerdas yaitu selalu menjaga supply agar tidak melebihi jumlah
permintaan sehingga harga tidak turun. Selain itu untuk mencegah lost opportunity karena
delay proses Pembangunan, maka diperlukan penelitian pasar terkait dengan jumlah
permintaan supaya dapat memenuhi permintaan pasar

3. TRADITIONAL BANK RUN

A traditional bank run starts when (correct or incorrect) information about potential problems
at a bank leads to fear of a bank failure. More fear leads to a higher tendency to withdraw
personal savings. An increase of withdrawals leads to a decrease of the perceived solvency
of the bank which leads to more fear of a bank failure. An increase of withdrawals also
leads to a decrease of liquid bank reserves and hence to a lower liquidity of the bank.
Banks then need to turn more and more illiquid assets into liquid assets (money) to have
sufficient liquid assets to pay for (future) withdrawals. Due to the speed required to liquidate
illiquid assets, huge losses are often made, resulting in a reduction of the solvency of the
bank. The lower the solvency of the bank, the lower the perceived solvency of the bank,
which leads to more fear of a bank failure. Weak or uncertain economic conditions result in
more fear and lower perceived solvency.
1. Make a causal loop diagram of this description. This causal loop diagram should be
similar to the ones described in (Richardson 1991; MacDonald 2002). How many
feedback loops are there? What is their polarity?
2. What are the possible systems behaviors suggested by this CLD?
Variable of Models:
*) Variable highlighted in yellow could be considered as a constant

Fear of a bank failure Uncertain economic conditions

Withdrawal Liquid bank reserves

Perceived solvency Solvency oEe bank

Variable Linkage:
Fear of bank failure + Withdrawal

Withdrawal - Perceived solvency

Perceived solvency - Fear of bank failure

Withdrawal - Liquid bank reserves

Liquid bank reserves - Solvency of the bank

Solvency of the bank + Perceived solvency of the bank

Uncertain conomic conditions - Perceived solvency of the bank

Uncertain conomic conditions - Fear of bank failure

Causal Loop Diagram Traditional Bank Run

Weak or uncertain
- economic condition
+ Perceived solvency of
the bank
-
Solvency of - +
the bank R1 R2 Fear of bank
+
failure
Liquid bank
reserves
- Tendency to withdraw +
personal savings

Ada 2 feedback loops:

R1 → Solvency of the bank
R2 → Fear of the bank failure loop

Polarity R1  reinforcing loop.

Possible system behavior exponensial growth
Jika bank memiliki asset yang liquid maka akan mempengaruhi solvency dari bank sehingga
akan menambah persepsi solvency dari bank dan tendency untuk penarikan uang pribadi
akan menurun

Polarity R2  reinforcing loop.

Possible system behavior exponensial growth
Persepsi solvency dari bank akan mempengaruhi tingkat ketakutan kegagalan bank yang
akan meningkatkan kecenderungan terhadap penarikan uang di bank

4. ENERGY TRANSITIONS

● Energy Transitions are dynamically complex: they are governed by many feedback
effects and long delays. Energy transitions are also deeply uncertain: major
uncertainties –related to individuals, particular technologies, the entire system, and
hence for policy/decision makers in the energy field– are omnipresent. Energy
technologies face many uncertainties and need to overcome many hurdles, even
before becoming commercially viable and entering the energy technologies
battlefield.
● One of these hurdles is the so-called ‘valley of death’. That is, quite often,
entrepreneurs and technology developers bring a new technology to the pre-
commercial stage, but due to a lack of investments, it does not survive the phase
between (subsidized) entrepreneurial technology development and large-scale
commercial take-off in which subsidies are (often) forbidden. It is hard to predict
which promising technologies will actually make it, and hence, which might possibly
become the technologies of the future.
● Many self-reinforcing uncertainties influence perceived certainty related to each new
technology. The lower the perceived certainty, the higher the perceived risk and the
lower the entrepreneurial willingness to acquire knowledge/experiment/lobby/. . . in
order to bring a technology to the point where it would be considered a good
investment. Resources for actions to reduce uncertainty may actually help to take
this hurdle and may lead to more perceived certainty and raise perceptions about the
potential success of the technology. This in turn reinforces (intrinsic) entrepreneurial
motivation, resulting in more willingness to act. A reduction of the perceived risk and
an increase of the entrepreneurial motivation are the preconditions to further the
state of development and increase the willingness to invest of entrepreneurs and
risk-taking energy companies, which in turn leads to more real investments,
contributing to the success of the technology, reinforcing the willingness to invest,
etc.
1. Make a CLD of the pre-battlefield struggle. How many loops are there? What is their
polarity? What would be appropriate names?
2. What policy recommendations could be derived from this CLD?
Variable of Models

Perceived certainty Actions

Perceived risk Uncertainty

Entrepreneurial willingness Perceived of potential success

Entrepreneurial motivation Willingness to act

State of development Willingness to invest

Investment Success of technology

Variable Linkage
Perceived certainty + Perceived risk

Perceived certainty - Entrepreneurial willingness

Perceived risk - State of development

Entrepreneurial willingness + Investment

Actions + Perceived certainty

Actions - Uncertainty

Actions + Perceived of potential success

Uncertainty - Perceived certainty

Perceived of potential success + Entrepreneurial motivation

Entrepreneurial motivation + State of development

Entrepreneurial motivation + Willingness to act

Willingness to act + Actions

State of development + Willingness to invest

Willingness to invest + Investment

Investment + Success of technology

Success of technology + Perceived certainty

Success of technology + Willingness to invest

Berpikir Sistem - Assignment A04
Lukman Muhammad Barokah NPM. 2306184136

Model CLD

Total Loop: 4 loop dan semuanya merupakan reinforcing loops.

Setiap loop pada CLD ini adalah

R1 = Entrepreneurial motivation loop

R2 = State development loop
R3 = Investment loop
R4 = Entrepreneurial willingness loop

Recommendations could be derived from this CLD:

Dalam proses transisi energi, terdapat kondisi ketidakpastian yang mempengaruhi action dari
setiap pihak seperti investor. Untuk terlaksananya transisi energi diperlukan investasi yang
mana investasi ini harus bisa membiayai hingga energi terbaru dapat diimplementasikan.

Selain itu agar terjadi action, diperlukan kepastian terhadap hasil. Meningkatnya kepastian
dapat dipengaruhi dari development projek tersebut. Kepastian juga dapat diperoleh dari
jaminan yang diberikan pihak pemerintah.